Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

Skooby

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Meet the deep and far-flung 2015 freshman class

Freshmen in the one-and-done era aren't the entire story of college basketball, but taken together, the first-year players do represent the largest wild card in any given season. In 2014-15, for example, freshmen Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones started for a Duke team that won the national championship, while their classmate Grayson Allen came off the bench to score 16 points in the title game.

So while freshmen may not be the end-all and be-all, they definitely punch above their weight in terms of potential importance. So let's dig deeper into this incoming freshman class. Compared to their historical predecessors, this 2015-16 freshmen appear to stand out in two ways. First, this class is unusually deep in terms of one-and-done potential. Second, it is unusually dispersed in terms of where its elite players will be found this season.


1. Depth

This season's freshman class is already being talked about as being "down," as in "this is a weak class," and/or "the 2016 draft will be a weak one." Either statement may well turn out to be true, and maybe this is partly a reflection of people being justifiably excited over players like Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum who will be freshmen next season. Even so, before we criticize this class for not being as good as next year's or last year's, one additional reminder is in order.

Last season was highly unusual, and for proof, just look at Okafor. The No. 1-rated player in the nation coming out of high school, Okafor turned out to be more or less exactly as good as everyone said he was going to be. As a freshman, he led his team to a national title while making first-team All-American. And he was selected third in the ensuing draft. Any class that can put not one but two (legitimate) picks in front of Okafor is by definition an outlier.

And -- what do you know? -- the numbers back up the idea that 2014-15 was indeed unusual. Drafts in the one-and-done era have averaged slightly less than eight one-and-dones per first round, but in June, 13 freshmen were selected among the first 30 picks. (Or perhaps the correct number here is really 14, depending on how one defines the term and whether you count Emmanuel Mudiay.)

In other words, the 2015-16 freshman class could be less deep than what we saw last season but still be very deep by historical standards. At the moment, it appears that this is exactly what's about to happen.

We're a long, long way away from the 2016 NBA draft, of course, but it's not at all difficult to reel off a dozen freshmen who stand a fair chance of being first-round picks at that time. I vacuumed up every 2016 mock draft I could find and tallied the results. Based on the quantified wisdom of that crowd, here is one such 12-player list: Ben Simmons, Skal Labissiere, Jaylen Brown, Brandon Ingram, Jamal Murray, Cheick Diallo, Malik Newman, Diamond Stone,Henry Ellenson, Ivan Rabb, Isaiah Briscoe and Stephen Zimmerman Jr.

Perhaps not all 12 of these guys (and no other freshmen) really will go one-and-done, mind you. It's just that these are all highly plausible candidates to do so. That plausibility, by historical standards, denotes an unusually deep freshman class.


2. Dispersion

This part's easy. Simmons is the No. 1-rated freshman in the country, and he's not playing for Kentucky or Duke but LSU. Brown and Rabb are both ranked in the top 10 nationally, and they're teammates not at Kansas or Arizona but at California.

Usual suspects Duke and Kentucky do have the highest-rated freshman classes in the nation this season overall. Still, recruiting (or, more precisely, top-100 recruiting) is a zero-sum game, and the Blue Devils and Wildcats didn't hoardas much of this year's talent as what we're accustomed to seeing.

I like to rate freshman classes using Drew Cannon's front-loaded high-school-ranking curve. Based on this point system, Duke's current first-year players comprise the "weakest" (ha) class to be ranked No. 1 in the nation since the Blue Devils likewise won top honors in 2007-08 (Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, etc.).

This doesn't mean Mike Krzyzewski had a "down" year recruiting, much less that his stellar freshman class is overrated. It does mean that for whatever reason, this year's crop of elite recruits chose to disperse to an aberrant number of programs instead of concentrating at a few blue-chip locales.

What does this mean for college basketball in 2015-16? File it as one small step for parity. Duke and Kentucky have the best freshman classes, but they haven't truly cornered the market like you'd expect them to do if you've been paying attention the last few seasons.

Or, to be even more precise, it's Kentucky in particular that's shown a shift in its usual pattern. Actually Duke's freshman class is at least within shouting distance (statistically) of the one that helped bring a national title to Durham last season, but this time around UK didn't quite dominate the top-10 market the way we've seen John Calipari do so often in the recent past.

That being said, both Kentucky and Duke are quite rightly ranked in the top five in the preseason polls. These are still programs that stand an excellent chance of winning a national championship this season. Maybe if you're a fan of any one of 349 other Division I teams, it gives you some measure of comfort to reflect that both the Blue Devils and Wildcats could turn out to be somewhat less mighty than they were, respectively, last season. If this is indeed what transpires, you can give part of the credit to the relative dispersal of the 2015-16 freshman class.
 

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Jameis Winston is catching on quickly

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston is your classic example of a rookie who has been thrown into the fire. In his first four pro starts, Winston turned the ball over eight times (seven interceptions, one fumble) and his Total QBR stood at 35.6 (26th overall). The tape was pretty much what you would expect from a rook. Sure, there were some flashes of potential, but it was surrounded by choppy play and poor decisions.

Welcome to the league, right?

Well, in his past three starts, Winston hasn't turned the ball over once and has posted a total QBR of 83.7 (fourth overall during Weeks 5-8). In fact, after a strong performance in Sunday's overtime win against the Atlanta Falcons, Winston became only the fourth rookie QB in the past 10 seasons to register a QBR of more than 88 in back-to-back weeks, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

The question is, do the numbers mesh with the tape? And has Winston turned a corner as he continues to develop against pro competition? Let's examine why Winston struggled earlier in the season before focusing on his improved play at the position.

The rookie mistakes
In his first four starts, Winston was erratic throwing from the pocket, completing only 54.7 percent of his passes (7.2 yards per attempt), getting sacked eight times and throwing seven interceptions.

Surprised? I wasn't. In fact, this is part of the learning curve, the up-and-down ride the majority of rookie quarterbacks take in the first month of the season. The game is faster (college tape is in slow-motion compared to the pros) and defensive coordinators love to plan for rookie QBs. That means late safety rotations, exotic pressure schemes and window dressing in the secondary to disguise coverages.

That was the game plan from the Carolina Panthers against Winston in Week 4, with cornerback Josh Norman lying in the weeds to steal one from Winston in the flat, and linebacker Thomas Davis robbing the curl. The Panthers -- a legit, proven defense -- forced Winston to read different looks, and they took advantage of balls thrown off target or into coverage. They baited the young kid and exposed his inexperience, as the No. 1 overall pick threw fourinterceptions that day.

This type of defensive philosophy gets amplified even more on third downs. In that four-game set, Winston's numbers on third down were extremely poor. He completed only 51 percent of his passes and threw five picks. His Total QBR? A lowly 8.8. Wow. That's not going to cut it.

In Week 3, with the Bucs protecting a 9-7 lead over the Houston Texans, Winston wanted to throw the backside dig (or square-in) to wide receiver Mike Evans on third-and-7 (see diagram below). This is a big play for the rookie at the start of the second half. Extend the drive and get points or make a smart decision and protect the ball.

The Texans showed a single-high safety look with man-coverage across the board, and Quintin Demps rotated down near the line of scrimmage. Winston found the matchup he wanted: Evans aligned against a cornerback, Johnathan Joseph, playing from an off-man position. Hold the free safety in the deep middle and throw the dig, right?

That sounds cool and it works on the chalkboard every time, but Demps played a trail (or "thumbs") technique. It's a weak-side combination look with Joseph playing over the top (like an inverted 2-Man) and Demps trailing Evans on the inside breaking cut. Translation: Winston thought he had his best weapon one-on-one, but instead, Evans ended up double-teamed.

That led to Demps' interception, field position and points for the Texans in a game they eventually won 19-9.

While Winston flashed his potential and raw talent early this season, far too often defenses were successful fooling the rookie into making crucial mistakes.

Seeing the field
In Winston's past three starts, he started to make tangible improvements. Just look at his numbers:

Jameis Winston on throws inside the pocket
Weeks 1-4 Weeks 5-8
Comp. percentage 54.7 68.2
Yds. per attempt 7.2 9.3
Sacks 8 4
TDs/INTs 5/7 4/0
Total QBR 25.5 89.0

From identifying coverages to recognizing pressure, Winston is seeing the field with more clarity. That has allowed him to process his reads more quickly, while taking what the defense is giving him. If that means throwing underneath to the flat or hitting the check down, then go with it. Live to see the next down.

The biggest leap for Winston? It's on third downs, where he's completing 76 percent of his passes in his past three starts. Remember that 8.8 Total QBR on third downs? Well, it has jumped all the way to 94.6 in Weeks 5-8. That's a major increase -- and it shows up on tape.

Sure, the Bucs are facilitating the rookie's rise by using the screen game and putting their receivers in a position to pick up yards after the catch. And yes, Evans can make Winston's play look better than it sometimes is, with the wide receiver's ability to turn a 50-50 ball into a big play. But it all starts with the quarterback's development within the system.

Winston showed us last week against the Falcons a perfect example of that development when he threw the seam route for six points to Cameron Brate against a three-deep zone shell.

With the Falcons playing Cover 3 "Buzz" (strong safety drops as hook defender), Winston must look off (or hold) the free safety in the deep middle of the field to create a throwing window up the seam, which is the weakness in the zone scheme.

That's why we see Winston putting his eyes to the opposite side of the field. This allows him to manipulate the deep safety while creating time for Brate to clear the underneath defenders.

Once Winston knows he has held the deep safety long enough, he can bring his eyes back to the play side of the formation and deliver a rope over the top of the underneath hook defender. The touchdown was all created by his eye movement.

Maybe the game is starting to slow down a little bit for Winston. That should be expected, with more opportunities to make corrections off the tape. He's managing the pocket with better awareness, working through his progressions at a quicker rate (less panic) and taking fewer risks with the ball -- all of which speaks well to his growth as a passer.

Managing expectations
Even with Winston's Total QBR on the rise, we have to be realistic as he nears the midway point of the season. Yeah, the turnovers are down, but we know there are more coming. The tape, while showing he has improved drastically when compared to Weeks 1-4, is far from complete. Winston will still sail the ball on the seam route at times and miss targets because of inconsistent mechanics. Remember, he's a rookie playing the toughest position in all of sports.

But coach Lovie Smith and the Bucs' front office have to be encouraged. Even if Winston suddenly stumbles and his numbers start to trend downward again, he has shown the ability to make plays in critical game situations. That's a great thing for any rookie, especially one that has to lead a team at the quarterback position.
 

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Ranking Harden, Butler and the NBA's 30 shooting guards

My annual ESPN Insider position rankings are back.

To formulate the rankings, I study each player's on-court performance and advanced metrics, including wins above replacement player (WARP) and real plus-minus (RPM). Then I slot the players as I see them, according to their predicted quality of play for this season.



1. James Harden
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Team: Houston Rockets
RPM SG rank: No. 1
WARP SG rank: No. 1
Overall #NBArank: No. 5

Harden really isn't a shooting guard at all. He's a position-less offensive creator of dynamic proportions. The overwhelming value he provides the Houston offense trumps everyone else at his position. It's not really close.

Hidden talent: Harden climbed to 6.8 assists per game last season. showing his point-guard-like traits. Harden has ranked in the 88th percentile or better as a pick-and-roll ball handler each of the last three seasons, according to Synergy Sports.

Taking it to the next level: Harden has an inconsistent in-between game. Last season, he converted only 30 percent of his shots in the lane but outside of the restricted area.





2. Klay Thompson


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Team: Golden State Warriors
RPM rank: No. 6
WARP rank: No. 4
#NBArank: No. 16

Thompson gets a Warriors' championship boost. As the third-best player on a 67-win team that looks even better this season, Thompson's two-way impact is underserved by his advanced metrics.

Hidden talent: Thompson's dribble-drive game has blossomed. In 400 fewer minutes last season, Thompson drove 140 more times, per NBA.com. He jumped from the 57th percentile to the 83rd in points per drive.

Taking it to the next level: You have to nitpick to find a realistic area of improvement for Thompson, but here's one: He doesn't draw many offensive fouls. Last season, he drew 0.08 of them per 100 possessions, ranking in the 15th percentile. Stand your ground!







3. Jimmy Butler


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Team: Chicago Bulls
RPM rank: T-2
WARP rank: No. 2
#NBArank: No. 17

Few have made the kind of leap Butler made from established role player to bona fide offensive creator. Hell-bent on self-improvement, Butler seems to have added more playmaking to his arsenal. Look out.

Hidden talent: The more he's on the move, the better Butler is on offense. Yet he's also a sneakily fantastic post-up option. Butler has rated in the top 10 of all players in points per play on post-ups in both of the last two seasons, per Synergy.

Taking it to the next level: Butler still flails wildly when shooting off the dribble. He's ranked in the bottom 15 percent in those situations each of the last three seasons, per Synergy.



4. Bradley Beal


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Team: Washington Wizards
RPM rank: No. 10
WARP rank: No. 15
#NBArank: No. 36

Beal has taken his time in fulfilling his considerable potential. Beginning with last season's playoffs, he appears to be accelerating. He looks right at home in Washington's new up-tempo attack and is poised to be a breakout star early in the 2015-16 season.

Hidden talent: Beal generally has been an elite transition player during his brief NBA career, ranking as high as the 99th percentile per play according to Synergy. In the early going of 2015-16, Beal is tied with teammate John Wallfor sixth in the NBA in fast-break points per game.

Taking it to the next level: Beal has been as subpar inside the arc as he has been dynamic beyond it, hitting only 43 percent on 2-pointers for his career.



5. Dwyane Wade


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Team: Miami Heat
RPM rank: No. 22
WARP rank: No. 5
#NBArank: No. 46

Wade gets nicked for durability as he has missed around 20 games per season in recent years. At the same time, there are only a couple of 2-guards who are primary creators. Wade is one of them. Wade can produce enough in 65 to 70 games to be elite at his position.

Hidden talent: While Wade's defensive RPM is shrinking, per-play metrics suggest he's still a factor on the ball. Last season, Synergy rated him in the 93rd percentile per play and SportVu had him in the 91st percentile in impacting opponent shooting percentage.

Taking it to the next level: At 34, how much gas is left in the tank?



6. Khris Middleton
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Team: Milwaukee Bucks
RPM rank: T-2
WARP rank: No. 11
#NBArank: No. 45

Middleton's defense-driven RPM was so good last season the Bucks' media staff started including daily updates in their game notes. Middleton is no mere defensive specialist, though, possessing a quick and accurate catch-and-shoot game and a nifty midpost arsenal.

Hidden talent: Last season, Middleton perfected a floater that fueled a needed upgrade inside the arc. His percentage in the lane and outside the restricted area jumped from the 22nd to the 97th percentile.

Taking it to the next level: The floater is nice, but for Middleton to really make teams pay for overly aggressive closeouts he needs to leverage his plus athleticism into more foul shots.



7. Wesley Matthews


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Team: Dallas Mavericks
RPM rank: No. 15
WARP rank: No. 10
#NBArank: No. 108

Matthews' ranking is a vote of confidence in his Achilles tendon, Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle and Dallas' vaunted training staff. If they can all stay on the court, Matthews is an ideal complement for Dallas' big three of Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams and Chandler Parsons.

Hidden talent: Matthews is known for his floor-spacing ability, but in a small sample last season, Synergy had him with an average of 1.15 points per play as a roll man. That's the highest number of any 2-guard over the last three seasons.

Taking it to the next level: Matthews is as unselfish as they come, but his passes were only marginally productive in Portland. Maybe the change in teams will help.



8. Danny Green


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Team: San Antonio Spurs
RPM rank: No. 4
WARP rank: No. 3
#NBArank: No. 60

Green's impact is elite. He's among the top floor spacers in the game. He's an ideal fit for the Spurs' system, though he's adapting his game to what might be a diminished role. And he's a fine defender to boot.

Hidden talent: Green's strengths are transparent. One sly component to his game is a solid ability to use the pick-and-roll. He has rated in the league's top 25 percent for three years running.

Taking it to the next level: For Green's game to expand, he'd need to increase his volume. But that might not be a good idea because of his so-so athleticism and lack of ballhandling acumen. Green is great in San Antonio, but he's probably not great elsewhere.





9. Kyle Korver


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Team: Atlanta Hawks
RPM rank: No. 5
WARP rank: No. 8
#NBArank: No. 53

Korver will be 35 by season's end, but he's coming off a career season. A regression can be expected because of, you know, nature. Korver doesn't have the defensive impact of the guys ahead of him on this list, but very few players impact a game so much without ever touching the ball.

Hidden talent: Korver is as frightening to opponents as a trailer in transition as DeAndre Jordan is as a lob finisher. Korver averaged 1.45 points per transition play last year, the top figure for a wing player over the least three seasons, according to Synergy

Taking it to the next level: There's not much for Korver to add to his game, so perhaps his goal should be to make every shot.



10. J.J. Redikk


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Team: Los Angeles Clippers
RPM rank: No. 14
WARP rank: No. 14
#NBArank: No. 73

Redikk has managed to beat back unrealistic expectations for his career. As a floor spacer, he's on par with the players ahead of him in these rankings but more able to create his own shot.

Hidden talent: Redikk has all the catch-and-shoot numbers you'd want for a guy with his role, but his numbers off the dribble are even more impressive. Redikk has been in the top 10 percent in efficiency off the bounce three straight seasons, per Synergy.

Taking it to the next level: The last two seasons, Redikk has been in the league's bottom 10 percent against post-ups, though there's probably not much to be done about that.
 

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The middle third
11. DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors
12. Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves*
13. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons
14. Brandon Knight, Phoenix Suns
15. Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic
16. Monta Ellis, Indiana Pacers
17. Nicolas Batum, Charlotte Hornets
18. Iman Shumpert, Cleveland Cavaliers
19. Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
20. C.J. McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers

Wiggins' potential is immense. Maybe he's No. 1 on this list someday. But like many elite players before him, he doesn't quite yet know what he's doing. Wiggins' per-game numbers as a first-year player got him the rookie of the year award, but he was wildly inefficient. That was true for both ends of the floor. This ranking is a vote for Wiggins' potential, the improved team around him and the allure of the second-year leap.

*While Wiggins is often listed as a small forward, per basketball-reference.com, he has received 61 percent of his minutes at shooting guard this season, as Tayshaun Prince starts at the 3.



The bottom third
21. Avery Bradley, Boston Celtics
22. Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers*
23. Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans
24. Andre Roberson, Oklahoma City Thunder
25. Courtney Lee, Memphis Grizzlies
26. Arron Afflalo, New York Knicks
27. Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets
28. Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings
29. Nik Stauskas, Philadelphia 76ers
30. Gary Harris, Denver Nuggets

Kids, specialists and players on the downside populate the bottom third. If Clarkson were playing his real position and we ignored defense, he'd be a lot higher. Same for Gordon, who is not really allowed to play as much with the ball in his hands as he might on another team. Just to cite one example, I'd love to see him with the Mavericks.



*Clarkson is the starter at shooting guard, while Kobe Bryant starts at small forward.
 

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Comparing 2015 freshmen to NBA stars

Everyone loves comparisons, right? Well, we took a dozen of the top freshmen in the country and picked a current or former NBA player who they remind us of.


Ben Simmons, LSU Tigers -- LeBron James

I'm not saying Simmons will be the next LeBron James, but he's multifaceted like James. And, similar to James, Simmons is a position-less player. James is thicker and more powerful, while Simmons is leaner, longer and a bit faster. Both pass extremely well, almost as point forwards, and their perimeter shots each needed work coming out of high school.


Skal Labissiere, Kentucky Wildcats -- LaMarcus Aldridge

It wasn't easy to find a comparison for the 6-foot-11 Haitian, but both players are capable of stepping out, scoring in the post and affecting the game on the defensive end with their ability to block or alter shots.


Brandon Ingram, Duke Blue Devils -- Tayshaun Prince

Some are comparing Ingram to Kevin Durant, but that's just not fair. Ingram has got a similar build to the 6-foot-9, 212-pound Prince and some of the same versatility. Prince averaged 14.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 40 percent from 3-point range in 2008-2009 with the Pistons.


Jaylen Brown, California Golden Bears -- Stanley Johnson

Brown and Johnson (who was selected No. 8 overall last June after one season at Arizona) have similar bodies and skill sets. They are both big, physical wings who have developing perimeter shots.


Henry Ellenson, Marquette Golden Eagles -- Dirk Nowitzki

This isn't a perfect fit, but Ellenson is 6-foot-10 and 245 pounds -- and his greatest attribute is his ability to make shots from the perimeter. Obviously, Dirk's level is on the high, high end of the ceiling for Ellenson, but that's the type of player he could become in time.


Diamond Stone, Maryland Terrapins -- Andrew Bynum

This was the toughest one to come up with. Stone is considerably shorter than Bynum, but both were average high school athletes with big, strong bodies. Stone is able to step away from the basket a bit more than Bynum was (even when healthy), but Stone will be more of a true center.


Cheick Diallo, Kansas Jayhawks -- Tristan Thompson

Thompson might be a shade taller, and Diallo still has a ways to go to fulfill his potential, but they both play extremely hard, get after it on the glass and aren't highly skilled scorers.


Ivan Rabb, California Golden Bears -- Ed Davis

Both are about 6-foot-10, long and talented and were highly touted coming out of high school. The question with both is their toughness and whether they will live up to their potential.


Caleb Swanigan, Purdue Boilermakers -- Zach Randolph

Swanigan is a tough, burly yet skilled 4-man who can step out and do some good things away from the basket. That's exactly what Z-Bo has been in the NBA for a long time.


Malik Newman, Mississippi State Bulldogs -- Monta Ellis

Newman is a little bigger than Ellis, but they are both explosive scoring combo guards who can get to the basket. Newman has a chance to be a superior perimeter shooter.


Stephen Zimmerman Jr., UNLV Rebels -- Greg Monroe

These two big men aren't exceptional athletes, but they're both tremendous passers and quality rebounders. Monroe, who is about an inch shorter than Zimmerman, averaged a double-double for the Pistons last season.


Jamal Murray, Kentucky Wildcats -- O.J. Mayo

Murray and Mayo are big, strong guards who have a ton of natural ability. They can both shoot it from deep, score around the basket with their size and strength and find their teammates when necessary.
 
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