Jameis Winston is catching on quickly
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback
Jameis Winston is your classic example of a rookie who has been thrown into the fire. In his first four pro starts, Winston turned the ball over eight times (seven interceptions, one fumble) and his Total QBR stood at 35.6 (26th overall). The tape was pretty much what you would expect from a rook. Sure, there were some flashes of potential, but it was surrounded by choppy play and poor decisions.
Welcome to the league, right?
Well, in his past three starts, Winston hasn't turned the ball over once and has posted a total QBR of 83.7 (fourth overall during Weeks 5-8). In fact, after a strong performance in Sunday's overtime win against the
Atlanta Falcons, Winston became only the fourth rookie QB in the past 10 seasons to register a QBR of more than 88 in back-to-back weeks, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
The question is, do the numbers mesh with the tape? And has Winston turned a corner as he continues to develop against pro competition? Let's examine why Winston struggled earlier in the season before focusing on his improved play at the position.
The rookie mistakes
In his first four starts, Winston was erratic throwing from the pocket, completing only 54.7 percent of his passes (7.2 yards per attempt), getting sacked eight times and throwing seven interceptions.
Surprised? I wasn't. In fact, this is part of the learning curve, the up-and-down ride the majority of rookie quarterbacks take in the first month of the season. The game is faster (college tape is in slow-motion compared to the pros) and defensive coordinators love to plan for rookie QBs. That means late safety rotations, exotic pressure schemes and window dressing in the secondary to disguise coverages.
That was the game plan from the
Carolina Panthers against Winston in Week 4, with cornerback
Josh Norman lying in the weeds to steal one from Winston in the flat, and linebacker
Thomas Davis robbing the curl. The Panthers -- a legit, proven defense -- forced Winston to read different looks, and they took advantage of balls thrown off target or into coverage. They baited the young kid and exposed his inexperience, as the No. 1 overall pick threw
fourinterceptions that day.
This type of defensive philosophy gets amplified even more on third downs. In that four-game set, Winston's numbers on third down were extremely poor. He completed only 51 percent of his passes and threw five picks. His Total QBR? A lowly 8.8. Wow. That's not going to cut it.
In Week 3, with the Bucs protecting a 9-7 lead over the
Houston Texans, Winston wanted to throw the backside dig (or square-in) to wide receiver
Mike Evans on third-and-7 (see diagram below). This is a big play for the rookie at the start of the second half. Extend the drive and get points or make a smart decision and protect the ball.
The Texans showed a single-high safety look with man-coverage across the board, and
Quintin Demps rotated down near the line of scrimmage. Winston found the matchup he wanted: Evans aligned against a cornerback,
Johnathan Joseph, playing from an off-man position. Hold the free safety in the deep middle and throw the dig, right?
That sounds cool and it works on the chalkboard every time, but Demps played a trail (or "thumbs") technique. It's a weak-side combination look with Joseph playing over the top (like an inverted 2-Man) and Demps trailing Evans on the inside breaking cut. Translation: Winston thought he had his best weapon one-on-one, but instead, Evans ended up double-teamed.
That led to Demps' interception, field position and points for the Texans in a game they eventually won 19-9.
While Winston flashed his potential and raw talent early this season, far too often defenses were successful fooling the rookie into making crucial mistakes.
Seeing the field
In Winston's past three starts, he started to make tangible improvements. Just look at his numbers:
Jameis Winston on throws inside the pocket
Weeks 1-4 Weeks 5-8
Comp. percentage 54.7 68.2
Yds. per attempt 7.2 9.3
Sacks 8 4
TDs/INTs 5/7 4/0
Total QBR 25.5 89.0
From identifying coverages to recognizing pressure, Winston is seeing the field with more clarity. That has allowed him to process his reads more quickly, while taking what the defense is giving him. If that means throwing underneath to the flat or hitting the check down, then go with it. Live to see the next down.
The biggest leap for Winston? It's on third downs, where he's completing 76 percent of his passes in his past three starts. Remember that 8.8 Total QBR on third downs? Well, it has jumped all the way to 94.6 in Weeks 5-8. That's a major increase -- and it shows up on tape.
Sure, the Bucs are facilitating the rookie's rise by using the screen game and putting their receivers in a position to pick up yards after the catch. And yes, Evans can make Winston's play look better than it sometimes is, with the wide receiver's ability to turn a 50-50 ball into a big play. But it all starts with the quarterback's development within the system.
Winston showed us last week against the Falcons a perfect example of that development when he threw the seam route for six points to
Cameron Brate against a three-deep zone shell.
With the Falcons playing Cover 3 "Buzz" (strong safety drops as hook defender), Winston must look off (or hold) the free safety in the deep middle of the field to create a throwing window up the seam, which is the weakness in the zone scheme.
That's why we see Winston putting his eyes to the opposite side of the field. This allows him to manipulate the deep safety while creating time for Brate to clear the underneath defenders.
Once Winston knows he has held the deep safety long enough, he can bring his eyes back to the play side of the formation and deliver a rope over the top of the underneath hook defender. The touchdown was all created by his eye movement.
Maybe the game is starting to slow down a little bit for Winston. That should be expected, with more opportunities to make corrections off the tape. He's managing the pocket with better awareness, working through his progressions at a quicker rate (less panic) and taking fewer risks with the ball -- all of which speaks well to his growth as a passer.
Managing expectations
Even with Winston's Total QBR on the rise, we have to be realistic as he nears the midway point of the season. Yeah, the turnovers are down, but we know there are more coming. The tape, while showing he has improved drastically when compared to Weeks 1-4, is far from complete. Winston will still sail the ball on the seam route at times and miss targets because of inconsistent mechanics. Remember, he's a rookie playing the toughest position in all of sports.
But coach Lovie Smith and the Bucs' front office have to be encouraged. Even if Winston suddenly stumbles and his numbers start to trend downward again, he has shown the ability to make plays in critical game situations. That's a great thing for any rookie, especially one that has to lead a team at the quarterback position.