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[ska23wildcats0009]

ay nice but i'd love to read this one too:

Meet the Elite 24 players: Comps for all 24 stars - On The Trail - ESPN


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[Skooby]

ay nice but i'd love to read this one too:

Meet the Elite 24 players: Comps for all 24 stars - On The Trail - ESPN


@Skooby

Meet the Elite 24: Next-level comps for every player

The Elite 24 game is less than 72 hours away. If you're going to tune in to ESPNU on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET but haven't spent the spring and summer touring gyms across the country, here's a quick comparison game guide to help you prepare. Fair warning, though: The comps exercise is more about fun than it is fact.

(Ranks below reflect current standing in ESPN 100 (2016 class) or ESPN 60 (2017 class). Players uncommitted unless otherwise noted.)
Team EZ Pass
DeAndre Ayton (No. 1 for 2017, C, 6-foot-10, 220 pounds, Balboa City School/San Diego)

Comparison:David Robinson

You'll hear Ayton compared to everyone from Hakeem Olajuwon to Andre Drummond, but his physical dominance at a young age and athletic upside, combined with budding footwork and skill, might be most favorably compared to The Admiral.



Justin Jackson (No. 29 for 2016, SF, 6-8, 215, Findlay College Prep/Scarborough, Ontario -- UNLV commit)

Comparison:Boris Diaw

Jackson is a combo forward who has a good feel, can pass the ball, and will help a team win at the next level. While he might not be quite as brilliant a distributor as Diaw, he projects similarly to a younger version of the San Antonio Spurs forward.



Troy Brown Jr. (No. 6 for 2017, PG, 6-4, 175, Centennial/Las Vegas)

Comparison:Kyle Anderson

Brown's size, floor vision and ability to pass are what makes him unique, but like "Slow Mo," he has to rely on that size to create angles because he isn't blowing by too many guys.



Frank Jackson (No. 20 for 2016, G, 6-3, 185, Lone Peak/Alpine, Utah)

Comparison:Melo Trimble

Jackson might be more of a 2-guard while Trimble was more of a 1, but both were scoring guards at a similar stage with already strong bodies, polished skill sets, and the ability to drill their compact jumpers off both the catch and the dribble.



Hamidou Diallo (No. 30 for 2017, SG, 6-4, 175, Woodstock Academy/Queens, New York)

Comparison:Jalen Adams

Diallo is a little bigger and longer, but Adams is more of a point. Otherwise, they have similarly smooth and athletic playmaking styles and natural abilities to create space and maneuver in midair despite not yet being great shooters.



Terrance Ferguson (No. 14 for 2016, SG, 6-6, 180, Prime Prep/Dallas -- Alabama commit)

Comparison: Ray Allen or Zach LaVine

Ferguson has a textbook stroke and elite athleticism to pull off just about any dunk in the book. Does he end up following more of the Allen prototype, or Levine? Only time will tell.



Trevon Duval (No. 13 for 2017, PG, 6-2, 183, Saint Benedict's Prep/Wilmington, Delaware)

Comparison:Derrick Rose or Eric Bledsoe

Duval is an explosive power guard who plays not just with great burst -- both off the bounce and in midair -- but with the power to accelerate right through contact. He's cut from the same cloth as guys like Rose and Bledsoe.



Josh Jackson (No. 3 for 2016, SF, 6-7, 184, Prolific Prep/Southfield, Michigan)

Comparison:Andre Iguodala

This is a tough one, but there are lots of similarities between Jackson and Iguodala in terms of size, naturally strong frames, explosive athleticism, defensive prowess and passing instincts. Both are good scorers and hard straight-line drivers. Jackson's underrated shooting touch may top Iguodala's, though.



Thon Maker (2016 class, C, 7-0, 218, Athlete Institute/Orangeville, Ontario)

Comparison:Kevin Garnett or Jonathan Bender

KG is the most frequent comparison -- and the prototype Maker admits to modeling his game after -- but there are also a lot of similarities between Maker and Bender, a 2001 lottery pick, at this stage as well.



T.J. Leaf (No. 9 for 2016, PF, 6-9, 205, Foothills Christian/El Cajon, California)

Comparison:Charlie Villanueva

It's not a perfect match, but there are definite similarities. Leaf's budding inside-out skill set and the fact he's deceptively bouncy at the rim -- yet not especially quick laterally -- is similar to Villaneuva.



Seventh Woods (No. 31 for 2016, G, 6-1, 185, Hammond/Columbia, South Carolina)

Comparison:Lou Williams

Woods may be a little more explosive vertically and Williams more slippery, but both are undersized 2-guards who rely on their physical tools to score the ball -- and don't have the same instinct about distributing.



Dewan Huell (No. 18 for 2016, PF, 6-10, 215, Miami Norland/Miami)

Comparison:Taj Gibson

Huell has a rare combination of length, athleticism and agility. While his offensive skill set is still limited, he finishes well around the rim. He also has all the physical tools necessary to develop into a great defender, à la Gibson.



Team Doo Be Doo
Udoka Azubuike (No. 19 for 2016, C, 6-10, 280, Potters House Christian/Jacksonville, Florida)

Comparison: DeSagana Diop

Nearly 7-foot with a massive frame and hyper-aggressive approach inside the lane, Azubuike evokes Diop, the former Oak Hill center who played 12 injury-plagued years in the league.



Mario Kegler (No. 35 for 2016, SF, 6-8, 218, Oak Hill Academy/Jackson, Mississippi)

Comparison:Jimmy Butler

Chicago Bulls swingman Butler is much more of a guard and a more versatile offensive player than Kegler, but that wasn't necessarily true when Butler was at Kegler's level. It also wouldn't be a surprise to see Kegler develop into a lockdown defender down the road.



Kobi Simmons (No. 6 for 2016, PG, 6-5, 177, Saint Francis/Alpharetta, Georgia)

Comparison:Michael Carter-Williams

Like MCW, Simmons has good size and physical tools for the lead guard spot and can be a little wild at times, but he has good scoring instincts and plays a gambling style on the defensive end that leads to lots of steals.



Rawle Alkins (No. 22 for 2016, SG, 6-4, 185, Christ the King/Brooklyn, New York)

Comparison:Lance Stephenson

A big power guard out of New York City who scores in high volume but also locks up defensively and makes plays for others, Alkins even shares Stephenson's big personality -- seemingly a necessity to go with the expectations of being the Big Apple's most celebrated prospect.



Shamorie Ponds (No. 66 for 2016, G, 6-0, 155, Thomas Jefferson/Brooklyn, New York)

Comparison: Nick Van Exel

Ponds is a slim southpaw with a scoring style -- and is almost a 2-guard by instinct but in a point guard's body. He has the handle to dance with the ball, can splash quick-release 3s with ease, or thread the needle with his passes -- all of which conjures up memories of Van Exel.



Jalek Felton (No. 9 for 2017, G, 6-3, 175, Mullins/Mullins, South Carolina -- North Carolina commit)

Comparison:Xavier Rathan-Mayes

A scoring guard with a lot of style to his game, Felton is good with the ball and can make tough shots or whip tight passes. While he doesn't quite score it like Rathan-Mayes just yet, he's another flashy, volume guard who needs to get more efficient.



Markelle Fultz (No. 21 for 2016, SG, 6-5, 180, DeMatha Catholic/Upper Marlboro, Maryland)

Comparison:Reggie Jackson

Fultz and Jackson are scoring guards with similar size and body types. They're both good -- but not great -- athletes, have the same stat-stuffing style where they can rack up points, assists and rebounds, and even share similar mannerisms.



Billy Preston (No. 20 for 2017, PF, 6-8, 220, Prime Prep/Dallas)

Comparison:Billy Owens

Preston, like the former Syracuse star Owens, differentiates himself with his combination of size and skill. Preston succeeds more with his handle than his jumper, although his stroke might be slightly ahead of where Owens' was at this stage.



Wenyen Gabriel (No. 83 for 2016, PF, 6-9, 185, Wilbaham & Monson/Manchester, New Hampshire)

Comparison:Luol Deng

Gabriel is leaner than Deng was at the same stage, so his frame will need to continue to develop. But he has similar length and versatility with a budding skill set, good nose for the ball and defensive instincts.



M.J. Walker (No. 29 for 2017, SF, 6-5, 190, Jonesboro/Jonesboro, Georgia)

Comparison:Anthony Tucker

Walker is a beast, combining power and athleticism to the point where he just bullies those around him. He has improved his jumper and will need to develop the tenacity to be productive against bigger guys in his current style.



Edrice "Bam" Adebayo (No. 8 for 2016, PF, 6-8, 220, High Point Christian/High Point, North Carolina)

Comparison:Derrick Favors

The Dwight Howard and Antonio McDyess comparisons have become the norm for Adebayo, but they might be overstated. Favors offers a similar package of strength and athleticism on a comparable frame to Adebayo's.



Jarrett Allen (No. 17 for 2016, C, 6-9, 225, Saint Stephen's Episcopal/Austin, Texas)

Comparison:John Henson

Allen has a highly skilled interior post package with good touch on jump hooks over either shoulder, and the long arms to convert over post defenders. He needs to get stronger and a little tougher, all of which is a little reminiscent of Henson.



Michael Porter (No. 2 for 2017, SF, 6-9, 190, Father Tolton, Columbia, MO)

Comparison: Klay Thompson

Porter is a big perimeter player with a dagger three-point stroke and the athleticism to raise up on the break. While he's a couple inches taller and a little bouncier than Thompson (although not necessarily a better all-around athlete) there are similarities between the two.

 

[ska23wildcats0009]

thanks cuz

Scout's Take: ESPN 100 SG Markelle Fultz to Washington - On The Trail - ESPN

@Skooby

 

[ska23wildcats0009]

Five observations: Under Armour Elite 24 - On The Trail - ESPN


@Skooby

 

[ska23wildcats0009]

Basketball recruiting -- Five observations: Nike's Bahamas event - On The Trail - ESPN


@Skooby

 

[TheMadLionsFan]

Joyner: Overvalued, undervalued fantasy RBs

It would be much appreciated

 

[TheMadLionsFan]

• Sando: Easiest and hardest QB schedules

It would be appreciated

 

[TheMadLionsFan]

Sando: Projecting win totals off 2015 QB Tiers

It would be appreciated

 

[Skooby]

thanks cuz

Scout's Take: ESPN 100 SG Markelle Fultz to Washington - On The Trail - ESPN

@Skooby

Scout's Take: ESPN 100 SG Markelle Fultz to Washington

ESPN 100 guard Markelle Fultz made a verbal commitment Friday night to Washington, announcing his decision live on ESPNU during the Elite 24 3-point and dunk contest.

Why he committed: Ultimately it came down to Washington, Arizona and Louisville, and to a lesser extent Kentucky and Maryland. Fultz had taken recent visits to all three of his top suitors and came away favoring Washington, in large part due to the relationship with head coach Lorenzo Romar and assistant coach Raphael Chillious, as well as the opportunity to play with the ball in his hands from day one. The most intriguing part of his recruitment, though, is that Kentucky never became a bigger player. Fultz had gone as far as calling Kentucky his dream school in the past and talked of taking an official visit right up until the day he committed. The bottom line is that Fultz was never the Wildcats' top priority and that much was evident during the July evaluation period. Meanwhile, Washington made it clear he was its No. 1 target.

What he brings: Fultz is a late bloomer whose recent rate of improvement has been off the charts. He went from competing on DeMatha Catholic's JV team as a sophomore to the MVP of the prestigious Washington Catholic Athletic Conference as a junior. He currently checks in as the 21st-ranked player in the ESPN 100 but is set to make another jump when our post-summer rankings are revealed Aug. 26. An athletic 6-5 combo-guard, he's as good as it gets in the open floor with his long, fluid, gazelle-like strides to the rim and complete economy of motion. While Fultz rarely beats you with his first move in the half court, he's still a playmaker who is learning to attack off of ball screens, is also capable of creating for others off the bounce and is improving as both a 3-point and midrange pull-up shooter.

How the class is shaping up: On the heels of a 2015 class that included seven incoming freshmen, the Huskies had far fewer but much more specific objectives in the Class of 2016, and an immediate impact playmaking guard was tops among them. Fultz was atop their wish list from the beginning and although they were perceived as a dark horse until very recently, the Huskies continued to build in-roads at each and every step. Now he joins Sam Timmins, a 6-foot-11 big man from New Zealand, to become the second player to commit to Washington in the 2016 class.

How he fits: Fultz and incoming freshman and former ESPN 100 product Dejounte Murray have the potential to form a dynamic duo in the backcourt for Washington. Both are big, playmaking guards with worlds of upside and their size allows them the versatility to play with virtually any other type of perimeter player from a point guard to a small forward. David Crisp, an instant offense-type southpaw who specializes in drilling 3s will be an ideal complement, while fellow freshman and high flier Matisse Thybulle could give the Huskies tremendously imposing collective size and athleticism around the perimeter. That group, in conjunction with Noah dikkerson and Marquese Chriss, will form one of the most underrated freshman post duos in the country and give the Huskies a terrific young core with a potential early-impact player at every position on the floor.

Who he reminds us of: Every once in a while you see flashes of D'Angelo Russell in the open floor, but the much better comparison is that of Detroit Pistons guard Reggie Jackson. Fultz and Jackson are scoring guards with similar size and body types. They're both good athletes, but not necessarily as explosive in the half court as they are the open floor, and have a similar ability to stuff multiple columns of the stat sheet with their ability to create for others, rebound from the guard spot and force turnovers defensively. Even the way Fultz moves, and his mannerisms, are reminiscent of Jackson at times.

Basketball recruiting -- Five observations: Nike's Bahamas event - On The Trail - ESPN
@Skooby

Five observations: Nike's Bahamas event
Here is what we learned from the Nike Bahamian event 'The Trip' -- the inaugural edition of an event which featured top 2016 players Harry Giles and Duke commit Jayson Tatum, among other stars:

1. This was no vacation
The players participated in grueling skill development workouts and practices conducted by several skills coaches including ex-NBAers Gary Payton, Brian Shaw and ESPN analyst/former collegiate coach Miles Simon. The players also participated in daily life skills classes, including training on social media, interviewing and personal conduct.

2. Best defender: De'Aaron Fox
Fox is the best defender in the 2016 class at the point-guard position -- he can make the opposing point guard disappear with his defensive ability. His size, length, athletic ability and (most importantly) effort make him a lockdown defender. You hear the Nick Van Exel comparisons with Fox, and while that is somewhat accurate, Fox is a better defender than Van Exel was.

3. Best offensive player: Jayson Tatum
With all due respect to Malik Monk who (when he is wired in) may be the most devastating offensive player in the high-school ranks, Tatum is more consistent and has the best offensive package of any wing in the class. Tatum has a pro-ready mid-range game, with a great touch inside 19 feet and several moves to get himself open. The mid-range is a lost art, and something that can help Tatum put up a lot of numbers -- all the way to the pro level.

4. Malik Monk can be a point/lead guard
Monk is definitely a natural shooting guard, but at his size (6-3-plus), he physically projects best as a lead guard (or as Paul Biancardi says, a "points" guard) at the pro level. Monk could become Russell Westbrook-ish as he continues to progress up the basketball ladder. He has a strong enough basketball IQ, can guard the position and can create enough to be successful on the ball, not only in college but at the pro level. And, Monk can be an initiator of offense. We must remember that the pure point guard position is starting to go away. Coaches are deciding to put the ball in the hands of their top playmaker and letting them create for themselves and the entire team, as opposed to the traditional pass-first PG. Monk can be that type of player.

5. No true center
The team for the Nike event signaled the trend toward the extinction of the true center. There was no true center on this team. The 3 "bigs" -- Harry Giles, Wendell Carter and Mohamed Bamba -- are all considered to be mostly power forwards. Basketball is trending towards more mobile and versatile post players who can score on the low block and step out and score inside 19 feet. That type of player is harder to guard, because he can move around and is not just stuck on the block. All three of the above four-men have that versatility, and all three can play the five if needed. That versatility raises their stock even more.

 

[Skooby]

Five observations: Under Armour Elite 24 - On The Trail - ESPN


@Skooby

Five observations: Under Armour Elite 24

It was once again as grand a spectacle as you’ll find on the grassroots basketball circuit, as the 10th annual Under Armour Elite 24 game brought some of high school basketball’s best players together on a custom-made outdoor court, with the New York City skyline -- ranging from the Statue of Liberty to the Brooklyn Bridge -- as the backdrop. While the all-star-type format isn’t necessarily a great one for evaluating, there were still lessons to be learned, not just from the game itself but also from two days of competitive scrimmages leading up to Saturday’s main event.

1. Predictions or premonitions?
In our Elite 24 preview we predicted two things, both of which came to pass. The first was that we could see a big announcement, and of course Markelle Fultz’s pledge to Washington during Friday night’s 3-point shootout and dunk contest fit that bill. The second read, “You can bet that Edrice Adebayo will try to rip the rim down...” Well, we didn’t know just how right we were. In fact, it was little more than four minutes into the game that “Bam” rushed in for an explosive two-handed tip-dunk that was so powerful that as he pulled the rim down, the back of the basket came right up off the ground. Truth be told, it looked like it was coming down until the big fella finally let go with a big smile. That was just the first of many big finishes for Adebayo, who finished with a game-high 21 points on 10-of-12 from the floor to earn one of the game's four MVP awards given.

2. Nothing deceptive about Frank Jackson's athleticism
Because Jackson is so skilled, with a nearly textbook release off both the catch and the dribble, sometimes his athleticism tends to fly a little below the radar. Well, that was not the case Saturday night. He opened the game with a 360 dunk on the break, and while defense was hardly an emphasis of this game, it was clear Jackson’s first step was plenty quick enough to get him in the paint at will, even in more competitive settings. Even his finishing tools impressed -- not just his highlight dunks, but the body control and touch he showed around the rim. Jackson finished with a team-high 20 points in an MVP performance for Team EZ Pass, but more than that he utilized the setting to remind people of the athletic tools he sometimes doesn’t get enough credit for, if only because of the strength of other parts of his game.

3. Trevon Duval makes his point
One of the biggest themes of the 2016 class is the depth and talent of the point guard position, but this week the best point guard from start to finish was Duval, from the Class of 2017. Duval finished with eight points and a game-high nine assists on Saturday night, but perhaps more importantly, he stood out during Thursday and Friday’s scrimmages, both of which were attended by 30-plus NBA scouts. Duval has just about all the attacking tools in the book. He’s quick, low and powerful through contact, tight with his handle and changes of direction, and able to either rise up around the rim or find his teammates. His stock has been on a steady rise all spring and summer, and following three strong days in New York it doesn’t appear as if it’s going to stop rising any time soon.

Jackson's elite athleticism, defensive prowess and passing instinct were hardly new, but they were all on display as he won Friday night’s dunk contest and then one of Saturday’s MVP awards. What may help Jackson the most, though, is his ultra-competitiveness. Whether it was winning sprints in practice, getting on teammates who didn’t match his intensity or getting in a stance to lock up local hero Rawle Alkins just as the entire NYC crowd rose to its feet, Jackson continued to show why he is the ultimate alpha dog. Even in this all-star-game-type atmosphere, he was just incapable of turning off that competitive fire, and that’s a quality shared by almost all of the greats.

5. Other Standouts
ESPN 60 power forward Billy Preston took the fourth MVP award Saturday night, showing his versatility with a big, powerful frame and budding skill set -- not just with his patented handle but also with a handful of 3s. Dewan Huell had a strong game with 18 points and seven rebounds but also intrigued scouts in practices with his athleticism and mobility -- talents that should allow him to be a potential high-level finisher and defender at the next level. The two hometown products, Alkins and Shamorie Ponds, were both aggressively looking to please the hometown crowd, as expected. Alkins’ one-on-one matchup with Jackson was one of the highlights of the first half, and “King of the City” got the better of one of the nation’s top defenders on two possessions. Ponds had 15 points in the game but was probably more impressive a day earlier in practice, showing his instincts in the pick-and-roll and high-level passing ability when he wasn’t focused strictly on scoring.

 

[Skooby]

Joyner: Overvalued, undervalued fantasy RBs

It would be much appreciated

Overvalued and undervalued fantasy running backs
The first two parts of the overvalued and undervalued players in fantasy football series reviewed the quarterback and tight end positions.

Today's third part of the series will take a look at overvalued and undervalued running backs. There is more depth at this position this season than in recent campaigns, but that relative abundance of quality prospects has not prevented players from being selected higher or lower than they should be.

Overvalued

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 3.4
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 1
Joyner positional rank: No. 7

Peterson's top overall running back ranking indicates that most fantasy owners think it is likely he will return to a production level that is close to his 2012 season for the ages. It's possible that this will happen, but it's just as likely Peterson will perform more like he did in the 2010, 2011, and 2013 campaigns (the last three full seasons he posted before his 2014 season-ending suspension).

In that time frame, Peterson ranked third in running back fantasy points (607) and sixth in running back fantasy points in point per reception (PPR) leagues (690).

Part of why he did not score more points is that Peterson missed seven games during those seasons (a factor that brings to mind injury concerns), but it should be noted that he also ranked fourth among running backs in fantasy points per game (14.8) and fifth in running back PPR fantasy points per game (16.8).

In addition to the aforementioned durability concern, Peterson also has a career carry and reception volume that has added nearly two seasons worth of extra wear and tear to his 30-year old frame, and a backup (Jerick McKinnon) who can produce upper-tier numbers on rush plays with good blocking.

Put it all together, and it means that the chances Peterson returns to his 2012 form -- the only level that would justify his current first overall ADP ranking -- are fairly low.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 5.3
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 5
Joyner positional rank: No. 11

During the past five seasons, there have been 33 occasions when a running back has scored 200 or more fantasy points. On two-thirds of those instances, the back had at least 275 rush attempts. This is a concern for fantasy owners considering drafting Charles, as he has racked up that volume of carries only one time in his career.

In that same time frame, the average fantasy point total for a running back who placed fifth in fantasy points (Charles' current ADP value) is 214. Charles has topped that mark twice in his seven pro seasons but only once in the past four years, so this is also not par-level performance for him.

That he did not reach the 214-point level last season despite scoring 14 touchdowns is amazing, but it is also a concern because of how rare it is to hit pay dirt that often in a season. Running backs have scored 14 or more touchdowns only 54 times since the 2001 season.

Charles is one of 10 backs to have achieved this goal twice in that time window, but only four of those backs (LaDainian Tomlinson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander) did it more than twice.

There is also the worry that Charles' durability concerns will motivate Andy Reid to continue to give a significant portion of the Chiefs' carries to backup running back Knile Davis.
These factors all indicate that Charles is not likely to finish the year in the top five in running back scoring, and thus is more of a risk than most fantasy owners will want to take with a selection in the middle of Round 1.


Undervalued

C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 11.3
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 8
Joyner positional rank: No. 3

A case can be made that Anderson could end the season first in running back scoring. No back tallied more points in Weeks 10-17 last year (158). Anderson's 9.9-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric ranked tied for second in the league last season. The only running back to do better in this statistic was Justin Forsett, who posted an 11.4 GBYPA.

This is important, because Forsett achieved this while playing in Gary Kubiak's offense, which is the system Anderson will be operating in now that Kubiak has taken over as the Broncos head coach. Anderson will also benefit from Denver turning into more of a run-first offense. The main concern in drafting Anderson is whether he can hold up to a full season's worth of bell-cow carries, but that issue is easily worked around by drafting his backup (either Montee Ball or Ronnie Hillman) as a low-cost handcuff.

Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 35.2
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 14
Joyner positional rank: No. 10

As noted above, Forsett led the league in GBYPA last year. Baltimore offensive coordinator Marc Trestman has a history of getting upper-tier production out of his backs, as Matt Forte ranked second among running backs in fantasy points during the past two seasons while working in a Trestman offense.

The Ravens will continue to utilize the Kubiak rushing system that Forsett excelled in last year, so a similar performance in the GBYPA metric is very possible. There should be few concerns about Forsett being long in the tooth, as he is nearly the same age as Forte, but has only 741 career rushes and receptions.

Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 80.3
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 29
Joyner positional rank: No. 19

Detroit had three seasons to judge whether Joique Bell could be their go-to back. They obviously found him less than completely adept in that regard, as they selected a potential replacement for Bell in Abdullah.

Abdullah has many of the hallmarks of a breakaway back. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he ranked tied for eighth nationally in rushes of 20 or more yards last year (18). New York Jets head coach Todd Bowles recently said that Abdullah "is about as quick as Barry Sanders." Scouts Inc. gave Abdullah a "1" grade (their highest rating) in four different areas, and said he "runs angry."

His size (5-foot-9, 205 pounds) may give some pause as to whether he can handle a large workload, but he posted 250 or more combined rushes and receptions in his last three seasons at Nebraska.

Detroit will try to find out whether Abdullah can produce better numbers than Bell, possibly sooner rather than later, given Bell's recent injury woes. If Abdullah succeeds in showcasing his skills, the Lions' backfield could turn into a lead/alternate situation with Abdullah being the lead back and Bell being the alternate. That would put Abdullah into RB2 territory and even potentially into lower-tier RB1 territory.

 

[Skooby]

• Sando: Easiest and hardest QB schedules

It would be appreciated

The easiest and hardest QB schedules
New England Patriots fans have reason to fret while their Super Bowl MVP quarterback fights a four-game NFL suspension. Tom Brady's importance to the Patriots is obvious, but he's only part of the quarterback equation for the six-time defending AFC East champions. Opposing quarterbacks also matter, and that's one area where New England should like its position.

The projected starting quarterbacks New England will face in 2015 graded lower than those for any team, according to ratings provided by 35 NFL coaches and evaluators in our 2015 QB Tier Rankings. That's good news for New England and for several other teams, especially if the 2015 quarterback tiers foreshadow outcomes as well as the 2014 version did.

As the chart below shows, top-tier starters had a distinct advantage last season in games played against Tier 3 QBs or worse.

For Brady, missing the first four games would swing the quarterback advantages toward Pittsburgh (first game) and Dallas (fourth game), while making it more difficult to get past Buffalo's tough defense (second game).

But as the following breakdowns demonstrate, New England is one of several teams with built-in advantages based on the QBs served up by the 2015 schedule, while the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers are at the other end. Here, we break down the easiest and hardest schedules based on how those 35 coaches and evaluators rated projected starting quarterbacks this offseason.

Five easiest QB schedules
Brady and Aaron Rodgers were unanimous Tier 1 choices, giving them a 1.0 average rating. Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick were near the middle with 2.94 averages. Plugging the 32 projected starters' averages into the 2015 schedule showed New England's opponents with a 3.07 average, the worst of any team's opponents.

(Note: The Jets' switch from Geno Smith to Ryan Fitzpatrick left one projected starter without a 2015 tier ranking. Smith's 4.29 average was the worst in the league this year, while Fitzpatrick ranked 30th in the 2014 survey with a 4.35 average (2014 results skewed lower at the bottom). Most evaluators I've spoken with would prefer Fitzpatrick to Smith, so I decided to keep Smith's average in the equation for games involving the Jets.)

1. New England Patriots (3.07): The Patriots play eight games against Tier 4 quarterbacks, tied with Tennessee and Miami for second-most in the league. New England does draw some of its tougher QB matchups on the road, however, including games against Luck, Tony Romo and Peyton Manning.

2. Indianapolis Colts (2.98): The Colts play a league-high nine games against Tier 4 quarterbacks (thank you, AFC South). Brady, Brees and Peyton Manning visit Indy.

3. Tennessee Titans (2.95): The Titans' season could hinge on whether rookie Marcus Mariota can quickly become more than a lower-caliber starter (voters placed him atop the fourth tier for now, typical treatment for an unproven player). The Titans face Brady, Luck and Brees on the road, where teams tend to lose anyway. They draw non-division games against Josh McCown and Matt Cassel.

New York Jets (2.93): The Jets, like Buffalo, play 11 games against teams with starters in the third or fourth tiers. Their rebuilt secondary should feast accordingly. The schedule also features games against lower-ranked quarterbacks with upper-level talent (Sam Bradford, Robert Griffin III and Derek Carr).

T-5. Miami Dolphins (2.89): See the pattern here? AFC East teams face AFC South teams in the scheduling rotation. Those divisions are hurting for quarterback talent beyond Brady and Luck. The home schedule averages 2.58, much tougher than on the road, where the Dolphins play the lowest-rated opposing quarterbacks on average (3.21). Brady, Luck, Romo, Joe Flacco and Eli Manning all visit Miami.

T-5. New York Giants (2.89): The question is whether the Giants' defense will be good enough to take advantage of 10 games against starters in the third or fourth tiers. Most of the tougher quarterback matchups are at home (Brady, Romo, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton).
Minnesota Vikings (2.27): Nick Foles, Jay Cutler and Carr are the lowest-ranked quarterbacks on the schedule, and the cupcakes (relatively speaking) end there. The Vikings play five games against QBs who rank in the top eight -- Rodgers (twice), Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson -- and nine games against the top 12 passers from the project. That's not as daunting if Teddy Bridgewater plays as well as the Vikings think he can. However, only the Detroit Lions face tougher quarterbacks on the road this season.

Five hardest QB schedules
1. Minnesota Vikings (2.27): Nick Foles, Jay Cutler and Carr are the lowest-ranked quarterbacks on the schedule, and the cupcakes (relatively speaking) end there. The Vikings play five games against QBs who rank in the top eight -- Rodgers (twice), Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson -- and nine games against the top 12 passers from the project. That's not as daunting if Teddy Bridgewater plays as well as the Vikings think he can. However, only the Detroit Lions face tougher quarterbacks on the road this season.

2. Denver Broncos (2.31): The Broncos ranked sixth in defensive expected points added (EPA) last season. They should be at least as good on that side of the ball in 2015. Denver draws Roethlisberger, Brady and Rivers (twice) in the second half of the season. Will Peyton Manning be ready to win late-season shootouts if needed?

3. Detroit Lions (2.43): Manning and Carson Palmer are two aging veteran variables on the schedule for Detroit. The Lions face them in the first five weeks of the season, when both could still be fresh. Detroit also draws road games against Brees, Rivers and Wilson, plus its home-and-away matchups with Rodgers in the NFC North. Bridgewater's development within the division is another variable to watch.

4. San Francisco 49ers (2.44): The home schedule is tough: Rodgers, Wilson, Flacco, Ryan and Palmer all pay a visit to Levi's Stadium, where the 49ers were 4-4 last season.

5. Oakland Raiders (2.45): Having Peyton Manning and Rivers within the division makes life for Oakland tough enough, but Rodgers and Roethlisberger are also on the schedule. Oakland faces the Vikings in Week 10, which will be a chance to evaluate Carr and Bridgewater on the same field. Voters in the 2015 survey favored Carr consistently, although some were intrigued by what they've heard regarding Bridgewater's intangibles.

Toughest QB Schedules
Rank Team Opp. QB Tier Avg.
1 Vikings 2.27
2 Broncos 2.31
3 Lions 2.43
4 49ers 2.44
5 Raiders 2.45
6 Steelers 2.46
7 Browns 2.49
8 Bears 2.50
9 Cardinals 2.51
10 Chiefs 2.52

 

[Skooby]

Sando: Projecting win totals off 2015 QB Tiers

It would be appreciated

Projecting NFL win totals off QB Tiers

OK, Kansas City Chiefs, your starting quarterback is Alex Smith. That's a pretty good deal when Brian Hoyer or Matt Cassel is throwing passes for the other team, but you're instantly running a fat deficit when Aaron Rodgers or Ben Roethlisberger is carving up your secondary. That's no shot at Smith, either. We could substitute the names of eight or 10 other quarterbacks earning $15 million a year or more.

Along those lines, the discovery that the New England Patriots face the NFL's easiest lineup of opposing quarterbacks got me thinking about the other half of the equation. The fact that the Patriots get to play most of their quarterback-friendly schedule with Tom Brady on their side creates a much bigger advantage. The magnitude of those weekly imbalances influences game outcomes to varying degrees.

Defenses, running games and supporting casts provide critical context for quarterback performance, but there's no ignoring how frequently teams with good quarterbacks beat teams less equipped at the position. In 2014, teams with Tier 1 quarterbacks (as determined by a panel of league insiders before last season) won 90.9 percent of their games against teams with Tier 4 starters. Teams with second-tier quarterbacks beat teams with Tier 3 starters 58.6 percent of the time. Applying these tier-based percentages to the 2015 schedule (using results from the 2015 survey) proved to be a fun exercise -- especially if you're a fan of the Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and a couple of well-armed teams that missed the playoffs with losing records last season.

2015 Quarterback Tiers results
• Tier 1 (6): Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees
• Tier 2 (8): Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton
• Tier 3 (10): Carson Palmer, Alex Smith, Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Derek Carr, Jay Cutler, Nick Foles, Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater
• Tier 4 (8): Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles, Robert Griffin III, Josh McCown, Brian Hoyer, Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick (Fitzpatrick was in the fourth tier of the 2014 survey, so his Tier 4 grade carried over once an injury knocked out Geno Smith)

Setting expectations for 2015 (almost to the good stuff)
Teams with Tier 1-2 quarterbacks in the 2014 survey combined to post a 98-39 record (.715) record against all other quarterbacks. Perhaps instructively, Tier 2 quarterbacks posted a 12-10 record against their Tier 1 brethren, while those in Tier 4 went 6-4 against those in Tier 3. This suggests the most important cutoff falls between the second and third tiers. We can see this intuitively given that multiple quarterbacks in the second tier -- Russell Wilson, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco -- have won championships, while those falling in the lower tiers have not.

If the tier-vs-tier winning percentages carried over from 2014 to 2015, the Patriots would expect to win a league-high 74.6 percent of their games, provided Brady started all season. He might not start every game, so in the breakdowns that follow, I've taken into account what suspensions of various length might mean.

QB-centric projected win rates and totals (the good stuff)
The figures below are not predictions. They represent a loose approximation of what team winning percentages might look like if the quarterback tiers projects of the past two seasons really did explain game outcomes. Even with these disclaimers, there is a strong .691 statistical correlation between our tiers-based projected totals and the win totals posted for betting by the Las Vegas Hotel. Teams are ranked in order of projected quarterback-driven winning percentage. Tiers-driven projected win totals come next, followed by Vegas win totals.

1. Patriots (.746, 11.9 wins; 10 Vegas wins): The projected winning percentage would drop to .664 if Brady missed the first four games and his backup, Jimmy Garoppolo, performed at a Tier 4 level (that is where voters slotted two other unproven players, Mariota and Winston). The winning percentage would be .669 if Brady missed the first three games, .695 if he missed the first two and .720 if he missed the opener only. Expectations for the Patriots' early opponents also would change, but New England would still rank among the top few regardless.

2. Colts (.740, 11.8 wins; 10.5 Vegas): The Colts are another team with a Tier 1 quarterback and a schedule packed with lower-tier starters. They play a league-high nine games against teams with Tier 4 starters.

3. Saints (.665, 10.6 wins; 8.5 Vegas): How quickly can the Saints improve their defense and ground game? That's the question, because they've been so bad on defense in particular that Brees' generally productive play hasn't been enough, and coaches have noticed desperation creeping into his decision-making. The Saints appear interested in de-emphasizing the position, but if they continue falling behind, they'll have to throw at a high rate.

4. Falcons (.654, 10.5 wins; 8.5 Vegas): The Falcons have been on the same plane as the Saints, losing games despite ranking among the league leaders in quarterback performance from a statistical standpoint. There's no way Atlanta or New Orleans will live up to these projected winning percentages without getting at least average performance from their defenses and ground games.

5. Steelers (.649, 10.4 wins; 8.5 Vegas): Pittsburgh's opponents allowed 20.8 points per game last season, the second-lowest total for any team's 2015 opponents. Fortunately for the Steelers, they're loaded on offense, with Ben Roethlisberger playing well enough to jump from the second tier last year to the first tier in 2015.

6. Panthers (.647, 10.3 wins; 8.5 Vegas): Cam Newton barely made the cutoff for the second tier. Moving him into the third tier would drop expectations to 6.0 wins. Kelvin Benjamin's injury makes Newton's job tougher.

7. Giants (.641, 10.3 wins; 8 Vegas): It's looking as though the Giants' defense could be bad enough to crush these 10-win dreams (a couple of evaluators I spoke with were taken aback by the Giants' showing in the preseason opener).

8. Cowboys (.633, 10.1 wins; 9.5 Vegas): If you're among those who contacted me saying Romo should have been in the top tier, I've got you covered. The Cowboys' projection would jump to 10.6 wins in that case.

9. Broncos (.624, 10.0 wins; 10 Vegas): There's some thought Peyton Manning could play more like a second-tier quarterback. That would drop the projection to about nine wins.

9. Packers (.624, 10.0 wins; 11 Vegas): This projection is on the low side in part because Green Bay faces six second-tier quarterbacks this season, tied for the third-highest total. And because second-tier quarterbacks went 12-10 against their first-tier brethren last season, the formula has the Packers winning less than half of those in 2015.

11. Ravens (.617, 9.9 wins; 9 Vegas): Like the other Tier 2 quarterbacks, Flacco plays at a top-tier level sometimes, but not consistently.

12. Chargers (.598, 9.6 wins; 8 Vegas): Make it 10.7 projected wins if Rivers moves into the top tier (he was the highest-ranked quarterback in the second tier).

13. Seahawks (.576, 9.2 wins; 11 Vegas): A great defense and running game up the expectations for Seattle. I come out with 10-11 wins for the Seahawks when I go through their schedule.

14. Lions (.565, 9.0 wins; 8.5 Vegas): The Lions think a vastly improved running game will push Stafford (Tier 2) to new heights.

15. 49ers (.430, 6.9 wins; 6.5 Vegas): Moving Kaepernick from the third to second tier would change the production to 9.0 wins.

16. Rams (.428, 6.9 wins; 8 Vegas): One of the NFL's best defenses could help the Rams exceed this projection. Moving Foles from the third to second tier would up the projection to 9.7 wins.

17. Cardinals (.425, 6.8 wins; 8.5 Vegas): If healthy, Palmer could be the most underrated quarterback in the survey. He landed in the third tier instead of the second only because he's coming off a torn ACL. Moving him into Tier 2 would improve the projected win total to 9.2, just above Vegas' projected 8.5.

18. Vikings (.421, 6.7 wins; 7.5 Vegas): The Vikings join Detroit and Green Bay as the only teams to face zero Tier 4 quarterbacks.

19. Bears (.419, 6.7 wins; 6.5 Vegas): Cutler is getting paid as though he's a solid Tier 2 starter. Moving him up from the third tier would push up the projection past nine wins, assuming Chicago's defense improves.

20. Bills (.411, 6.6 wins; 8.5 Vegas): Buffalo won nine games last season with a top-five defense and a backup quarterback. Can the Bills do it again?

21. Bengals (.407, 6.5 wins; 8.5 Vegas): That 6.5-win projection jumps to 10 if Andy Dalton moves from the third to second tier.

22. Jets (.405, 6.5 wins; 7.5 Vegas): The model makes little distinction between outcomes for quarterbacks in the third and fourth tiers. For that reason, the Jets' projection remains flat even if Fitzpatrick ascends into the third tier.

23. Eagles (.400, 6.4 wins; 9.5 Vegas): This difference between this total and the preseason Vegas total is the largest for any team in the league, but not if we upgrade Bradford from the third tier into the second. That would produce a 10-win projection.

24. Raiders (.397, 6.4 wins; 9.5 Vegas): Oakland has four games against opponents with Tier 1 quarterbacks. No other team has more, but that would change if Peyton Manning slipped into the second tier.

24. Chiefs (.397, 6.4 wins; 8.5 Vegas): A strong defense and top-notch coaching make that 6.4-win projection seem low. Ten wins would be the projection if Alex Smith were in the second tier instead of the third.

26. Dolphins (.382, 6.1 wins; 9 Vegas): Early reports from Miami suggest Tannehill could move toward the second tier. Placing him there would pump up the projection into the 11-win range.

27. Browns (.381, 6.1 wins; 6.5 Vegas): It's tough to envision the Browns getting better than fourth-tier production from the position.

28. Texans (.373, 6.0 wins; 8.5 Vegas): The Texans could be a bit like the Chiefs from defense and coaching standpoints. If we gave them a Tier 2 quarterback -- think Matt Schaub at his best -- the projection would jump past 10 wins.

29. Titans (.367, 5.9 wins; 5.5 Vegas): Moving Mariota upward into the third tier would not change the projected win total much, but a bigger jump into the second tier would produce an 11-win season in the projection. Imagine that.

30. Redskins (.350, 5.6 wins; 6 Vegas): With Griffin already banged up, Washington could wind up getting backup-level play.

31. Jaguars (.317, 5.1 wins; 5.5 Vegas): This is right in line with Vegas expectations. I did speak with a quarterback recently who thought Bortles would make a big jump this season in part because of improved fundamentals.

32. Buccaneers (.312, 5.0 wins; 6 Vegas): Vegas has Tampa Bay at 6.0 wins. Pretty obvious question here: Can Winston outplay his current spot in the fourth tier?

 

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Scout's take: ESPN 100 SG Kwe Parker picks Rutgers - On The Trail - ESPN


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NBA - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist contract extension undercuts his true value


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