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storyteller said:
Darrelle Revis and the New York Jets are among Football Outsiders' teams on the rise in 2015 - NFL
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Five teams on the rise in 2015


Twelve teams in the NFL make the playoffs every season, and we know that about half of them won't return the following year. The trick is guessing who'll be in and who'll be out. But don't worry, Football Outsiders has a complicated projection system to figure out the answer -- or, at least, what the probabilities are. Because given how much random chance is involved in an NFL season, every team goes into the year with at least a 1-in-400 shot at winning the Super Bowl.


Below, I'll look at the five teams with the best chance to improve compared to last year, according to our forecast. The projection system predicts each team's DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average, explained here) on offense, defense and special teams using a number of variables, including performance over the past three years, coaching experience and personnel changes. Then we simulate the season a million times to get a wide range of possibilities that account for every team's best-case and worst-case scenario.

Click here for a look at five teams likely to decline in 2015.

(Note: We overhauled our projection systems this summer, so the forecasts below might be different from what you've seen from us earlier this offseason.)

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Atlanta Falcons (6-10 in 2014)
Mean wins: 8.9 | Playoff odds: 49.2% (sixth) | Wins Super Bowl: 3.0% (14th)

It has been a tough couple of seasons for the Falcons. After five straight winning seasons, the Dirty Birds have gone just 10-22 over the past couple of years. But with new head coach Dan Quinn comes new hope for a playoff push in Atlanta.

The most likely improvement for the Falcons is going to come where Quinn is an expert: defense. Last year, Atlanta had the worst defense in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders' metrics. The Falcons could expect change even without a new head coach, simply because defense tends to regress toward the mean more than offense. The teams that finished dead last in defensive DVOA between 2003 and 2014 improved to an average rank of 20th the following season. But it also helps that Quinn has a strong coaching record and that the Falcons used the eighth overall pick on the pass-rusher we projected to be at the top of this class, Vic Beasley.


But the biggest reason to believe in the Falcons has nothing to do with the Falcons themselves. Atlanta has the easiest projected schedule in the league based on our metrics. We just produced our 11th annual Football Outsiders Almanac (buy here!), and only once in our previous 10 books did the team listed with the easiest projected schedule not go at least 9-7 (the 2007 San Francisco 49ers).



Projected Easiest Schedule, According to FO
Year Team W-L Year 1 W-L Year 2
2015 Atlanta 6-10 --
2014 Houston 2-14 9-7
2013 Indianapolis 11-5 11-5
2012 Chicago 8-8 10-6
2011 San Francisco 6-10 13-3
2010 Kansas City 4-12 10-6
2009 New England 11-5 10-6
2008 New England 16-0 11-5
2007 San Francisco 7-9 5-11
2006 Chicago 11-5 13-3
2005 Chicago 5-11 11-5


A big reason Atlanta's schedule looks so easy: the AFC South. Life always gets easier for teams that draw that division in the NFL schedule rotation. Last year, five teams that played the AFC South won at least 10 games. The year before, it was another five. It was four teams in both 2011 and 2012. The Falcons also have a secret bonus: one more home game than a year ago, when they hosted the Lions in London (and lost).





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New Orleans Saints (7-9 in 2014)
Mean wins: 8.7 | Playoff odds: 45.3% (10th) | Wins Super Bowl: 2.9% (15th)

The recipe for a New Orleans rebound is the same as Atlanta's. The Saints also will have an easy schedule, projected 31st, and a defense likely to regress toward the mean after ranking 31st in 2014, ahead of only Atlanta. Our forecast for New Orleans, however, is not as strong as it is for Atlanta because of the personnel losses the Saints suffered this offseason. Based on Football Outsiders' DYAR metric, no team lost more skill-position talent on offense. On top of that, the defense lost its top tackler, Curtis Lofton, and cut its top pass-rusher, Junior Galette.

Because it can be difficult to determine the impact of so much personnel change on both sides of the ball, New Orleans had the highest standard deviation of any team in our projections.





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St. Louis Rams (6-10 in 2014)
Mean wins: 8.8 | Playoff odds: 45.6% (ninth) | Wins Super Bowl: 3.7% (sixth)

Even with all the talent in the front seven, the Rams defense ranked only ninth in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings in 2014. So the Rams went out and got more talent for their front seven this year, signing Nick Fairley and Akeem Ayers. The Rams were slightly better on defense in both 2012 and 2013, so our system looks at the three-year trend plus the added talent and sees the Rams likely to be among this year's top-five defenses.

The system also sees St. Louis improving from a poor offense to one just below league average. There's no question that our system could be overestimating the Rams' offense because of the amazing statistical season Nick Foles had in a completely different offensive system two years ago. But even last year, Foles had a 62.7 QBR, much better than the quarterbacks the Rams had on the field (Austin Davis 44.3; Shaun Hill 41.4). The Rams also will be stronger wild-card contenders if our projections are correct that Arizona and San Francisco are set to decline.





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Minnesota Vikings (7-9 in 2014)
Mean wins: 8.5 | Playoff odds: 41.8% (14th) | Wins Super Bowl: 3.4% (ninth)

Teddy Bridgewater's improvement in the final five games of the year is actually not a reason we see the Vikings as a rising team. There's no consistent history for young quarterbacks improving late in the year and then carrying that improvement over to the next season. We do, however, like the Vikings to improve to average on offense because Bridgewater, like most second-year starters, should be better. Plus, the Vikings have experience and continuity on the offensive line, and they get Adrian Peterson back. The defense should continue to improve; Minnesota has a core of recently drafted talent that's young but not too young. And though it can be hard to accurately predict special teams, we do have Minnesota No. 2 behind New England in that area, in part because opposing teams often prefer to hand the Vikings field position with squibs rather than risk a big return from Cordarrelle Patterson.

But while our computers are jumping on the Vikings bandwagon, we're not ready to drive it into the fast lane quite yet. The Vikings' schedule is no longer projected as tough as we had it back in May, but it's still sixth in the league. That's why their wild-card run is more likely than not to fall a bit short.





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New York Jets (4-12 in 2014)
Mean wins: 8.2 | Playoff odds: 37.2% (17th) | Wins Super Bowl: 2.0% (18th)

Please welcome back that long-lost fan favorite: the great New York Jets defense. Our projections have the Jets as a real wild-card contender because only Seattle has a higher mean projection for defensive DVOA. Where does that improvement come from? The Jets can thank the invisible hand of regression and the very visible hands that were busy writing up contracts for free-agent defensive backs to sign this offseason.

Even without adding talent, the Jets were almost guaranteed to get better this year. They ended only 5.6 percent of opposing drives with a turnover last year, the lowest rate of any defense in our database going back to 1997. The dozen previous defenses to finish last in that category averaged 25th in the Football Outsiders defensive DVOA ratings. The next year, these teams improved considerably, finishing 15th overall in our defensive ratings on average, thanks to a rebound in the turnover department.

And remember, the Jets signed Darrelle Revis. Just how much better did that make their defense? Our new projection system features a variable that accounts for net change in defensive talent based on Pro-Football Reference's approximate value over replacement level. The Jets are tied with the 2009 Lions for the strongest positive net change we've calculated. The dozen teams from 2003-14 with the most talent added according to this metric improved their ranking on defense by an average of nine places (from 22nd to 13th).

The Jets' offense still projects to be awful, but our system thinks it will be slightly better if Ryan Fitzpatrick remains starting quarterback all season.
 
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ska23wildcats0009 said:
Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Love and Lance Stephenson highlight players looking to bounce back this season - NBA



@Skooby
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Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Love highlight players looking to bounce back

All too often, we fall victim to recency bias; in other words, we believe the most recent results are representative of a player's (and team's) eternal value. It cuts both ways, but especially so when a player has struggled, leading us to surmise that players we once thought were valuable are now has-beens. The cause of their struggles might vary: maybe it's returning from a serious injury, or perhaps emerging from a less-than-ideal situation. The reality is that players can always improve on their most recent season, even as they age, in the sense that they might not be better individual talents but they can do more to help their respective teams win.

Looking ahead to the 2015-16 season, here are five players looking to bounce back from disappointing 2014-15 campaigns.



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Carmelo Anthony | F
New York Knicks
2014-15 stats:
PPG: 24.2 | RPG: 6.6

Perhaps no team is expecting (and needing) a bounce back from a player like the Knicks are from Anthony. The eight-time All-Star played the fewest games in his career as he dealt with a partial tear in his left patellar tendon but returns to a deeper roster than he left behind. Although Anthony's per-minute and efficiency numbers experienced only nominal declines from the previous season, the hope is that a second season in the triangle can trigger faster decision-making and less ball stoppage for him.

One interesting offseason decision was the minimal enhancements made at power forward (beyond the drafting of Kristaps Porzingis), which could signify a shift of Anthony back to playing primarily as a 4 after spending more than three-quarters of his time at the 3 last season, according to Basketball-Reference. The additions of Robin Lopez and Arron Afflalo would support the idea of upgrading the defense in the starting lineup to subsidize playing Anthony at the 4, but team president Phil Jackson hasn't displayed the most progressive attitude toward evolving basketball trends. I'll believe an embracing of small ball by the Knicks when I see it.





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Kevin Love | F
Cleveland Cavaliers
2014-15 stats:
PPG: 16.4 | APG: 2.2

A resurgent season by Love would go a long way toward bolstering the Cavs' championship hopes. Like Anthony, Love is trying to recover from a serious injury, but he also has to rebound from a subpar season (by his standards). Although he is still rebounding at a high level, his efficiency numbers dropped across the board in his first season in Cleveland, as did his assist percentage, and both phenomena can be traced to a massive decrease in involvement in the offense as compared with his time in Minnesota.

Back in January, I co-wrote a piece with Kevin Pelton detailing how the Cavs were underusing Love; with his overall touches dropping by nearly 20 per game and his elbow touches dropping from 11 to about three per game. With a season under the belt, the onus is on coach David Blatt and his staff to find a way to better involve Love offensively, and the hope is a better level of familiarity on the court between Love, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving can also help the process along.





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Lance Stephenson | G/F
Los Angeles Clippers
2014-15 stats:
PPG: 8.2 | APG: 3.9

What a difference a year makes. Stephenson went from almost being an All-Star in 2013-14 to a universally reviled pariah in 2014-15, to the point that Charlotte happily divested itself of the Lance Experience at the cost of more than $12 million in future payroll in the form of Spencer Hawes. Still, one does not forget how to play basketball overnight, and, at barely 25, Stephenson represents the best chance at young, somewhat-established talent the Clippers could acquire, given the lack of assets at their disposal. A year ago, I thought Stephenson was a value pickup for two reasons: his on-court ability (dribble penetration, passing, versatile defense) and the structure of his contract, with a team option that could be used as leverage against him reverting to his "slappy" ways. Although it didn't work out for Charlotte, the Clippers will hope to make the same gamble with different results.

The Clippers' roster is vastly superior to that of the Hornets, which should help their odds on that gamble in a couple of facets. First, Stephenson returns to being a role player with better talent around him. Hornets coach Steve Clifford pointed out several times that he felt the biggest obstacles facing Stephenson were the idea that he was a star player and the difficulty finding enough spacing in lineups to allow Stephenson to do what he does well. Playing in L.A. will allow him to return to a role that he played in Indiana, where he shot 38 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers (as opposed to 16 percent in Charlotte). Second, the presence of strong, vocal leadership in the form of Chris Paul, as well as the championship pedigree of Doc Rivers, could help keep Stephenson focused.





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Omer Asik | C
New Orleans Pelicans
2014-15 stats:
PPG: 7.3 | BLKPG: 0.7

The Pelicans will be much improved this season for several reasons, many of them connected to Anthony Davis' continued improvement and new coach Alvin Gentry's ability to put him in a situation where he can be even more successful. However, Gentry will be tasked with finding a way to get more value out of Asik, especially on the heels of the $58 million deal the 29-year-old center received. Although Asik's rebounding, shot-blocking and usage all remained relatively steady (indeed, his PER went up to a career high last season in New Orleans), his impact on the game regressed as all his offensive flaws were accentuated while his defensive presence was minimized (dRPM drop from plus-4.87 to plus-1.83).

Offensively, the Pelicans can make life easier for Asik with slight tweaks. He has bad hands and is a slow gatherer, so giving him more time to locate the pass and catch the ball will improve his odds at completing the play. This can be achieved by delaying the pass out of the pick-and-roll by making the ball handler retain possession for another beat or two before delivering, or even making a third party send the pass, such as running an old Gentry staple play like Fist Up Short, in which the pick-and-roll ball handler passes the ball to a man flashing on the opposite lane line, who then delivers to the rolling screener.


Defensively, the use of Davis more on the perimeter and more small-ball lineups will allow Asik to remain closer to the rim and painted area, much like the strategy Golden State employed with Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli, minimizing the number of pick-and-roll engagements Asik has to endure out on the perimeter. By using more switching on the perimeter and keeping Asik around the basket, the Pelicans will be able to quell the deluge of rim attacks they conceded last season, when they gave up the most attempts at the rim in the league despite being the fourth-slowest team.





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Alec Burks | G
Utah Jazz
2014-15 stats:
PPG: 13.9 | APG: 3.0

With news of Dante Exum's torn ACL, Utah's need for Burks to bounce back off his own injury that caused him to miss the last four months of the season increases. Burks excels attacking off the dribble, so he'll be expected to carry a larger burden of offense-creating duties alongside Gordon Hayward, especially since the remainder of Utah's point guard rotation is either inadequate (Trey Burke) or inexperienced (Raul Neto, Bryce Cotton). In a way, this added burden benefits him in the sense that, although he's a decent passer, he's not necessarily a quick passer (a distinction I detailed on a recent appearance on Zach Lowe's podcast), so having the added time with the ball in his hands should somewhat conceal some of the stagnation.

Defense is the area of the floor that's of far larger concern as far as Burks' ability to rise up to the challenge. He does a poor job of anticipating plays and, as a result, gets caught overreacting to initial moves and falling out of position with no hope for recovery. He routinely takes bad angles when playing his man off screens, whether he's on ball or not, and his footwork leaves him susceptible to giving up straight line drives. The good news is, with Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert manning the backside, Burks has a lot of insurance, but those are the poor habits that also result in needless fouls picked up by teammates. He doesn't have to become Andre Iguodala overnight, but he has the agility and smarts to apply a little more attention to detail, and that could go a long way for a Jazz team trying to make a playoff push.
 
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TheMadLionsFan said:
Five offenses built with the future in mindFive offenses built with the future in mind, including the St. Louis Rams and Tennessee Titans - NFL
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Five offenses built with the future in mind

You may have read in various places that the 2014 New England Patriots were either the youngest or second-youngest team to ever win a Super Bowl. That number comes from averaging the age of every player on the Patriots' roster, but that methodology doesn't account for the fact that 37-year-old Tom Brady played most of the snaps at quarterback, not 23-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo.

We can do better.

Football Outsiders determines which teams are the oldest and youngest with a metric we call "snap-weighted age," which measures the average age of the players on a team based on which players actually played that season. So, for example, a player with 1,000 snaps counts twice as much as a player with just 500 snaps. For 2014, the oldest team in the league by this method was New Orleans at 27.3 years. And the Patriots were not a particularly young group, ranking as the 10th-oldest (27 years) when we looked at who actually played.

This offseason, for the first time, we decided to create an approximate snap-weighted age estimate for each offense and defense. We analyzed projected starting lineups and created formulas to project the average number of snaps played by lower-round picks based on position. Of course, we can't predict where injuries will force teams to start rookies and other young players. But by looking at where teams added free agents and where they drafted rookies, we can get an idea of which offenses and defenses are building toward the future and which want to win now.

One more very important note: Getting older/younger doesn't necessarily make a team better or worse. (Older teams do perform slightly better based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics, but it's a small correlation: 0.15 on offense and 0.17 on defense.) With that in mind, let's look at the five offenses that are built with the future in mind. (You can find the five offenses that are built to win now here.)

We'll touch on the defenses next week.

All player ages listed below are for 2015, based solely on birth year.

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St. Louis Rams

2014: 26.5 (23rd-oldest) / 2015, estimated: 25.0 (32nd)

The Rams already had a young offense, but the wholesale rebuild of their offensive line means they're likely to be the youngest in the league next season. Every position up front is getting younger except left guard, still handled by Rodger Saffold (27). The overhaul started midway through 2014 when Greg Robinson (23) replaced Jake Long (30) at left tackle. After the season, the Rams declined to bring back both Scott Wells (34) and Davin Joseph (32). They will be replaced by some combination of third-round rookie Jamon Brown (22), veteran backup Tim Barnes (27) and Barrett Jones (25), a 2013 fourth-round pick who has yet to start an NFL game. And at right tackle, second-rounder Rob Havenstein (23) fills Joseph Barksdale's (26) old starting post.


I wrote above that "getting older doesn't necessarily make an offense better or worse," but there are clear trends when it comes to an offensive line this young and inexperienced. Since 2001, there have been 18 offensive lines with an average age of 25 or younger. On average, these teams finished just 20th in Football Outsiders' offensive ratings -- and even that average is propped up by the 2011 Packers who had a young offensive line but the league's best offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.

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Tennessee Titans

2014: 27.0 (14th) / 2015, estimated: 25.5 (29th)

You already knew that Tennessee was getting considerably younger at quarterback, but Marcus Mariota (22) was just one player in a Tennessee draft that was heavily dedicated to offense. We're expecting the Titans to give regular snaps to wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham (22), running back David Cobb (22) and fullback Jalston Fowler (23). At right tackle, Tennessee will go from Michael Oher (29) to some combination of Byron Bell (26) and rookie Jeremiah Poutasi (21). And the youth goes beyond just these rookies: The Titans are expected to start three different 24-year-olds on the offensive line, all of whom have at least a year of NFL experience.

In the short term, there will be growing pains, though it isn't like the Titans offense can be much worse than it was a year ago. In the long term, putting this much young talent together is exactly how you grow one of the league's best offenses, especially if Mariota develops the way our QBASE projection system thinks he will.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2014: 27.5 (seventh-oldest) / 2015, estimated: 26.2 (26th)

Combine St. Louis' offensive line overhaul with Tennessee's fresh-faced rookie QB, and you get the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jameis Winston is all but sure to become only the fifth quarterback in the last two decades to start an NFL game in his age-21 season. Three of the others were also first overall selections: Matthew Stafford, Michael Vick and Alex Smith. The fourth? Josh Freeman.

Like the Rams, the Bucs could be starting two rookies on the offensive line -- right guard Ali Marpet (22) and left tackle Donovan Smith (22). But it's not quite as big of a transition as St. Louis faces because Marpet and Smith are replacing the younger members of last year's line, not the older ones. Barring injury, the Bucs will still have four starters at age 30 or over this season: linemen Logan Mankins (33) and Demar Dotson (30), receiver Vincent Jackson (32) and tight end Brandon Myers (30). Replacing those four players is likely on the docket for next offseason. There's no reason for Tampa Bay to keep veterans around for the sake of it; having all that experience a year ago led to the worst offense in the league.

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Detroit Lions

2014: 27.0 (15th-oldest) / 2015, estimated: 25.8 (28th)

It was time for a change on the Detroit offensive line, which ranked 21st last year in both adjusted line yards (run blocking) and adjusted sack rate (pass blocking). The two oldest linemen, Dominic Raiola (37) and Rob Sims (32), were not re-signed. They will be replaced by rookie Laken Tomlinson (23) and second-year man Travis Swanson (24). It gives the Lions a line with both youth (four starters are 24 or younger) and experience (Riley Reiff, LaAdrian Waddle and Larry Warford are in their third year starting together). Any injury in the interior will bring a little more age and experience in the form of ex-Broncos lineman Manny Ramirez (32). Meanwhile, if Eric Ebron (22) improves in his second season, he'll take away snaps from Brandon Pettigrew (30) as Detroit's No. 1 tight end and make the Lions' passing game dangerous in the middle of the field. This is a team where getting younger should mean getting better in the short-term, along with the long-term.

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Miami Dolphins

2014: 26.2 (27th) / 2015, estimated: 25.4 (30th)

You didn't realize Miami's offense was so young, did you? The only major players over the age of 27 this year are left tackle Branden Albert (31) and free-agent addition Greg Jennings (32). The Dolphins' receiving corps breaks even by replacing Mike Wallace (28) with a combination of Jennings and DeVante Parker (22), and they get younger by swapping out Brian Hartline (28) for Kenny Stills (23). The offensive line also gets an injection of youth with the departure of Daryn Colledge (33) and Samson Satele (31), who weren't great pass blockers but played a role in helping Miami rank No. 2 in the league on the ground according to Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. That means Miami's win-loss record will depend, in large part, on how fast the replacements -- some combination ofDallas Thomas (26), Billy Turner (24), and rookie Jamil Douglas (23) -- can get up to speed in the running game.
 
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ska23wildcats0009 said:
Where will '16 group rank among top PG classes of last decade?


@Skooby

I WILL fukkING DAP EVERY SINGLE OF YOUR POST'S SKOOBY
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Where will '16 group rank among top PG classes of last decade?

When you think about the class of 2016 the first thing that comes to mind is the incredible talent atop the class -- guys like Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Josh Jackson and even Thon Maker. That core is so good that it takes some attention away from another major storyline within the ESPN 100 -- the strength of this year's point guard class.

Dennis Smith Jr., Kobi Simmons, De'Aaron Fox, Lonzo Ball and Alterique Gilbert make up an impressive group to headline the position. Just how good that group is compared to years past depends on your perspective.

From a historical perspective, if we were to compare the point guard representation in the current ESPN 100 with that of the last 10 years, it looks as good as ever at the top of the class with five five-star point guards, but not quite as deep in the bottom half of the ESPN 100.



Point guard classes, since 2007
*ESPN did not use star system before 2009. There have been an average of 21 five-star players in each class since and so everyone ranked 1-21 in 2007-09 was retroactively deemed a five-star prospect.

Year PGs Top-ranked 5-Star PGs
2016 18 Dennis Smith Jr. #4 Smith, Kobi Simmons, De'Aaron Fox, Lonzo Ball, Alterique Gilbert
2015 17 Isaiah Briscoe #13 Briscoe, Jalen Brunson, Derryck Thornton, P.J. Dozier
2014 21 Tyus Jones #4 Jones, Emmanuel Mudiay, Joel Berry, Tyler Ulis
2013 25 Andrew Harrison #5 Harrison, Kasey Hill, Rysheed Jordan, Nigel Williams-Goss, Tyler Ennis
2012 17 Marcus Paige #22 None
2011 18 Marquis Teague #8 Teague, Myck Kabongo, Josiah Turner, B.J. Young, Tony Wroten Jr.
2010 19 Kyrie Irving #3 Irving, Brandon Knight, Josh Selby
2009 10 John Wall #5 Wall, Abdul Gaddy*
2008 15 Brandon Jennings #1 Jennings, Kemba Walker*
2007 17 Derrick Rose #5 Rose, Corey Fisher, Jai Lucas, E'Twaun Moore*


From this perspective, the class of 2013 appears to be the best point guard class of the last decade, and at the time that might have seemed like the case. That said, that 2013 group never lived up to the hype -- not even close, in fact -- and with the benefit of hindsight, it isn't even in the conversation of which class produced the most PG talent.

A couple of different factors created that trend. First, and most obvious, is the rate of improvement players show at the college level. Second, and most specific to the point guard position, is that there is a long list of guys who are initially used as scoring guards off the ball, who ultimately transition to playing with the ball in their hands if they make it to the NBA.

The 2016 class will be no different. Smith, Simmons, Fox, Ball and Gilbert all have a chance to not only be excellent college point guards, but also potential pros. As Joel Francisco and I debated yesterday, others like Malik Monk and Frank Jackson may have a chance to make that transition, depending on how they evolve in the coming years.

Where exactly will they stack up against the best point guard classes in the last 10 years? Only time will tell, but here's a rundown of how we might rank them retrospectively (* = listed as a shooting guard in the ESPN rankings coming out of high school):



No. 1 -- 2008


Top PGs: Brandon Jennings, Kemba Walker, Damian Lillard, Isaiah Thomas, Tyreke Evans*, Jrue Holiday*, Reggie Jackson*

Analysis: There was great depth in this class, and multiple guys have gone on to have impactful careers in the NBA. Lillard and Thomas were never expected to be quite as good as they are now and Evans, Holiday and Jackson were all listed as shooting guards when they were in high school.







No. 2 -- 2010


Top PGs: Kyrie Irving, Brandon Knight, Cory Joseph, Shabazz Napier, Ray McCallum, Kendall Marshall, Phil Pressey

Analysis: Again there's good depth in the pro ranks but Irving gave this class true star power and is the prototypical type of scoring lead guard we're seeing more and more of in the NBA. Knight's ascendance to an NBA All-Star is only an added bump.







No. 3 -- 2014



Top PGs: D'Angelo Russell*, Emmanuel Mudiay, Tyus Jones, Tyler Ulis, Melo Trimble*, Isaiah Whitehead*

Analysis: In less than a year Russell went from a guy labeled as SG to a big PG with celebrated floor vision and passing ability. The fact that he was one of three one-and-done first-rounders (with Mudiay playing his 'one' in China), two of whom went in the lottery, tells how good this crop really was.







No. 4 -- 2011


Top PGs: Michael Carter-Williams*, Trey Burke, Shane Larkin, Elfrid Payton, Austin Rivers*, Tony Wroten Jr., Quinn Cook, Ryan Boatright

Analysis: This list looks notably different then the top of the PG chart did in 2011. Carter-Williams made a quick and seamless transition to the point as a sophomore at Syracuse and went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year, while Burke, Larkin and Payton all exceeded expectations.







No. 5 -- 2009 and 2007 (tie)


Top PGs: John Wall, Eric Bledsoe, C.J. McCollum (2009); Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague, Jonny Flynn (2007)

Analysis: The classes are strikingly similar and both undeniably top-heavy. Wall and Rose are true NBA stars, while Bledsoe and Teague have proven themselves to be very solidly on that second tier. McCollum and Flynn were lottery picks out of Lehigh and Syracuse, respectively.







TBD -- 2015


Top PGs: Malik Newman*, Isaiah Briscoe, Jalen Brunson, Derryck Thornton, P.J. Dozier, Jalen Adams, Antonio Blakeney, Jamal Murray, Tyler Dorsey*

Analysis: More than any other class in recent memory this group was loaded with undersized scoring guards, almost all of whom are looking to make the transition to playing with the ball in their hands, and some of whom are farther along than others. Their collective ability to move to the point will ultimately determine how many can thrive at the NBA level.
 
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ska23wildcats0009 said:
Nice! dude Im going to go on your profile and just dap and dap all your posts...I already started to.

I'll take another one if your around tonight:

Scouting college freshmen who could be in the NBA draft in 2016 - College Basketball
Click to expand...

otential make them one-and-done material and likely high-level picks.

What makes this class special is the amount of size in the frontcourt, and if the five players below compete and help their teams win, they should hear their names called very early in the 2016 NBA draft:

99.gif

1. Ben Simmons | PF | LSU Tigers
Simmons has all the physical tools, athletic ability and skill you could want from a prospect. His versatility will help him thrive in the NBA -- he is a major threat in the conversion game as a finisher or a facilitator, but what makes him special is his passing and playmaking ability. He moves the ball to get others involved and can make the assist. While not a point guard, Simmons owns an innate ability to read the floor and make a spot-on pass at a moment's notice.

When it comes to scoring, Simmons is a true mismatch because he takes big men away from the basket, beats them off the bounce and also has range to 20 feet. When similar-sized defenders attempt to cover him, he can operate from the mid and low post with mobility, bounce and touch. Meanwhile, he has become a much more consistent rebounder and shot-blocker as his body has developed. The No. 1 player in the Class of 2015, Simmons would have been a top-five pick if he had been in Thursday's draft.

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2. Skal Labissiere | C | Kentucky Wildcats
Labissiere's is a name many don't know yet, but will once the college basketball season begins and he steps on the floor in Kentucky. What makes this emerging post a desirable prospect is that he is a 7-footer who can shoot the ball with range and accuracy. Labissiere has great touch to step out behind the arc and make 3s, or go inside and score with a jump hook.

On the other end, he blocks shots with significant wingspan and reach, and is a solid rebounder in his area -- though right now he has more length than strength. Labissiere needs to get stronger, especially in his lower body, to be able to maintain leverage in the post. In front of NBA general managers and scouts at the Nike Hoop Summit, he demonstrated skill, 3-point shooting and defensive mobility. Labissiere's best basketball is clearly ahead of him, and he has a chance to be the No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft if he changes his body and proves he can produce at a high level.

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3. Brandon Ingram | SF | Duke Blue Devils
Ingram has improved each year, to the point where he skyrocketed up our board and finished as the third-best prospect in the 2015 class. He oozes with upside because he is a pogo stick of an athlete with versatility. Ingram drives for baskets and covers ground with one dribble better than anyone else in the college game. He combines that part of his game with fluid 3-point shooting and an ability to get buckets in the paint. Ingram can play and produce in a high-possession game or a grind-it-out affair, as he can score and shoot over defenders.

Blessed with an extremely long frame, Ingram has the physical tools to be a good defender but that is an area of needed growth -- up to this point he has not been asked to be a committed defender. He's still painfully thin, so adding muscle will be vital to his overall development, but he's an elite prospect with great measurables (7-3 wingspan, 9-1½ standing reach), and is turning into an elite player. The NBA loves Ingram now, and should love him even more after his first year at Duke.

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4. Jaylen Brown | SF | Cal Golden Bears
Brown is the most powerful athlete among all college freshmen, and among the most powerful in all of college basketball. He's a monster on the open floor -- no one can finalize a play like Brown. He creates fouls on defenders; when he doesn't, you can find him somewhere inside the arc scoring -- he's an explosive straight-line driver with strong finishes. Brown's jumper is streaky from deep, yet more dependable from midrange.

Brown has plenty of physical ability to suggest he can become a strong defender, as he is all fast-twitch fibers and doesn't mind moving his feet. If his ball skills make progress and he continues to dominate inside the paint and on the glass, Brown will be a lottery pick in 2016.

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5. Henry Ellenson | PF | Marquette Golden Eagles

Ellenson is one of the nation's best incoming college freshmen whom you don't hear enough about. Watching him over the years, I've marveled at the impressive combination of his scoring versatility, power forward size and mobility. Ellenson is another big man with skill who can score both inside and outside with effectiveness.

He needs to show he will be a committed defender and can get himself in top physical condition. When that happens, Marquette will have a difference-maker who should be highly productive. NBA scouts need to be in Milwaukee this season.
 
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