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10 key takeaways from the July recruiting period
After spending the majority of the month getting back to my recruiting roots, I learned plenty. I learned how much I miss the summer scene, and how many great players (and kids) there are coming up through the system. The NBA has some terrific, young, high-character NBA stars like Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis -- and there are plenty waiting to join that group and maybe one day take their place.
Here are 10 other things I learned this month:
1. The 2016 class is the most exciting group in almost a decade
I’m as excited about this class as any I’ve seen since 2007, which was the highly touted group that included Kevin Love, Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Michael Beasley, Eric Gordon, Kyle Singler as well as lower-ranked guys like Blake Griffin and James Harden. The Class of 2016 has everything -- high-level point guards (Dennis Smith Jr., De'Aaron Fox, Frank Jackson, Lonzo Ball, Kobi Simmons), no shortage of quality big men (Harry Giles, Edrice "Bam" Adebayo,Marques Bolden to name a few), talented wings (Josh Jackson, Miles Bridges,Terrance Ferguson, Jonathan Isaac), skilled forwards (Jayson Tatum, T.J. Leaf) and explosive scorers (Malik Monk, Markelle Fultz).
2. This point guard class offers a glimpse of the game's future
The point guard position has been lackluster in recent years, but this crop -- led by Smith, Fox, Ball, Jackson and Simmons -- could be the best to come around in more than a decade. The most hyped point guard classes came in 2004 (Shaun Livingston, Sebastian Telfair, Daniel Gibson, Jordan Farmar, Rajon Rondo, Kyle Lowry) and in 2006 (Ty Lawson, Javaris Crittenton, Sherron Collins, Mike Conley Jr., D.J. Augustin), but the position -- while strong at the NBA level -- hasn’t been nearly as talented or deep at the high school level as it is this year. For what it's worth, my personal ranking of those top five point guards would be a tie between Dennis Smith Jr. and De'Aaron Fox at No. 1, followed by Frank Jackson, Lonzo Ball and Kobi Simmons.
3. Harry Giles is the real deal
I’ll take Giles over every top-ranked player in the past dozen years -- except for Anthony Davis. Giles has the entire package. He has size, athleticism, speed, power, skill and also all of the intangibles. He’ll be a terrific leader, and he’s a worker -- which means his perimeter shot will continue to improve. If healthy, I’d be surprised if the 6-foot-10, 230-pound power forward isn’t a perennial NBA All-Star and one of the best players in the league for a long, long time. He’s that good. There just aren’t any holes to find with him or his game.
4. A number of top programs are scared of the situation surroundingThon Maker
It’s almost a lock that the NCAA will look into Maker's situation, but I’m still unclear why more of the top schools don’t make a run at him. The skilled 7-footer is worth the roll of the dice -- and he’s someone who goes hard on every possession and also seems to have a good mind both on and off the court. Coaches have questions about those around him, but Maker is a difference-maker and has made it clear his desire is to play college basketball, and not go overseas after this coming season. The schools that continue to get mentioned the most are Arizona State and Indiana.
5. More sizzle, better matchups needed
I say it every summer, but the shoe companies need to do a better job with promotion. Back in the day, Sonny Vaccaro found a way to get a packed house into the ABCD Camp in anticipation of a Sebastian Telfair-Darius Washington Jr. matchup. Yes, Sebastian Telfair-Darius Washington Jr. -- and the hype was insane! You need passionate fans to help create an atmosphere -- and Vaccaro was able to accomplish that with an event that was held just outside of New York City in Teaneck, New Jersey. But more than that, it’s about building up the high-powered matchups, whether it’s Dennis Smith vs. Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson vs. Terrance Ferguson or Jayson Tatum vs. Miles Bridges. The one matchup I would have liked to have seen this summer that didn’t happen was Harry Giles against another powerful big man, Bam Adebayo.
6. Get used to seeing Malik Monk at the point
My colleague Adam Finkelstein listed Monk as his top point guard, and initially I balked at the thought -- the 6-foot-4 Monk is far more of a two-guard than a point. However, with the way the game and the point guard position has changed, Finkelstein is probably right. Monk may end up having the ball in his hands a ton, and while he’s a guy that looks for his own far more than looks for his teammates, he could be a point in both college and down the road in the NBA. There are few guys around with the ability to get to the basket like Monk. His biggest issue is consistency (which has improved) and decision-making.
7. Wenyen Gabriel's stock is soaring
I love guys who come out of nowhere in the summer, and the poster child for this in the summer of 2016 was Gabriel. Sure, I know people had heard of the 6-foot-10 New Hampshire native, but no one expected him to blow up and attract scholarship offers from the likes of Duke, Kentucky and Kansas. Gabriel was playing for the Mass Rivals “B” team a year ago, and then barely played after he was moved up to the main group. It’s a great example of a kid working hard, not playing the blame game and being rewarded. It will be interesting to see if Gabriel decides to go with one of the big boys who have entered the fray lately, or with one of the schools that have been on him for a while (i.e. UConn, Maryland, Texas, Notre Dame).
8. Miles Bridges' recruitment could come down to Calipari vs. Izzo
The most interesting recruiting battle in the class could wind up being that of Miles Bridges, who played as well as anyone this month. Many believe the versatile forward out of Flint, Michigan will ultimately choose from Michigan State and Kentucky -- and he could be the piece that puts both over the top. Tom Izzo has had plenty of success with Flint natives (Mateen Cleaves, Morris Peterson and Charlie Bell helped the Spartans win a national title) and Bridges could be a similar difference-maker. For John Calipari, he’d be the skilled forward with size that the ‘Cats haven’t had the last few years.
9. Keep an eye on rising junior Trevon Duval
My favorite player to watch in the Class of 2017 is the scoring point guard Duval. You can make a case that the Delaware native is the best guard -- regardless of age -- in the country. He’s tough, explosive and is capable of putting points on the board and making his teammates better whenever he wants.
10. Fresh faces, missing faces
Strange to see on the road: New St. John’s coach Chris Mullin and Alabama’s Avery Johnson. Strange not seeing: Billy Donovan and Paul Hewitt. Great to see: NC State assistant Rob Moxley, who recently battled health issues.
Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers equal a two-to-three-win upgrade for Astros
The Astros capitalized on the collapse of the Mets' trade for Carlos Gomez, nabbing the talented center fielder along with cheap back-end starter Mike Fiersfor a package of prospects that sends just one impact guy to Milwaukee.
Gomez has been a six wins above replacement (WAR) player over each of the last two years who is having a disappointing season at the plate and in the field, getting a little impatient and losing some power and hard contact. But at 29 he has shown no physical reason why he can't get close to the player he was the past two years, assuming the hip issue that scotched the deal with the Mets but didn't bother the Astros isn't holding him back. With George Springer out for an extended period and Jake Marisnick hitting just .235/.272/.370, Gomez is a substantial and immediate upgrade for now, and creates an opportunity for the Astros to move some younger assets now or in the offseason because he's under contract for 2016 as well. Beyond that, Houston has a small army of outfielders coming, mostly corner guys like A.J. Reed and Derek Fisher, so if Springer can return to center in 2017, they'll still have one of the top outfields in the game.
Fiers has ordinary stuff but a good track record of missing bats in the big leagues, with a strikeout percentage of more than 25 percent across 189 2/3 innings the past two years. The 30-year-old, who was a particular favorite of late Brewers scouting director Bruce Seid, was a 22nd-round pick in 2009, never throwing hard or showing a true plus pitch, but his high arm slot and way of hiding the ball behind him (thanks to a stabbing motion at the start of his delivery) make it harder for hitters to pick the ball up. His changeup is probably his best pitch, with some late downward fade, but it plays up more because hitters can't distinguish it early enough from his fringy fastball. My main concern with Fiers is that moving to the American League and a park that's good for right-handed power hitters may exacerbate his homer tendencies, but he can at least be a quality fifth starter for Houston, and the fact that he has four years of team control remaining makes him a very valuable asset if they wished to flip him for someone higher-impact, especially to a team in a less homer-friendly park, like the Padres. Assuming he and Gomez stay, this is a two- to three-win upgrade for Houston for the rest of this season, enough to make them on-paper favorites to win the division in my eyes.
Outfielder Brett Phillips is the one player going back to Milwaukee who could end up as an impact player; he was 36th on my latest top 50 prospect update, a five-tool player with a howitzer arm and the potential to play centerfield. He's a future-plus bat with above-average power and a tremendous work ethic, with performance at three levels over the last year and a half. He's hit for above-average power and probably ends up a 15-20 homer guy. Although his speed has yet to translate into any significant value from stealing bases, and his throwing arm giving only the chance for average or slightly better defense in center, he has an outside shot at becoming an All-Star. But that's probably the bulk of the return for Milwaukee, as the other three players coming back either have lower ceilings or significant flaws.
Outfielder Domingo Santana has outsized tools and will probably come right to the majors for the Brewers, but has had tremendous problems with contact and has had trouble making adjustments at the plate. Lefty Josh Hader has two plus pitches with a very tough arm slot for lefties to pick up, but it's a reliever's delivery and he doesn't have the control to start. Adrian Houser is an arm-strength right-hander who also has to go to the bullpen. Overall I thought the return was a little light for Milwaukee, given what they sent to Houston, especially with Fiers having four more years of team control remaining, and that would have been true even without the Brewers sending an international bonus slot to Houston as well.
ska23wildcats0009
Banned
Numbers say rooks Frank Kaminsky, Delon Wright poised to make impact
In an era in which most top prospects enter the NBA after spending just one year in college, there's only a limited relationship between playing well as a rookie and long-term success. After all, the 2010-11 All-Rookie First Team included Landry Fields and Gary Neal, but not Eric Bledsoe, Derrick Favors, Greg Monroe or Paul George.
As a result, most projections for draft picks wisely focus on production over several years rather than immediate results. But my WARP projections are built on translations that convert NCAA and international performance to its NBA equivalents, adjusted for a year of player development. Therefore, we can use them to project the players who will be most effective as rookies.
I've ranked players here based on the rookie version of the consensus projections that incorporate where a player was drafted along with their past performance, factoring in the opinions of NBA scouts. Players are ranked on their winning percentage, the per-minute version of my wins-above-replacement player stat akin to PER. Let's take a look at the top 10.
1. Karl-Anthony Towns
Team: Minnesota Timberwolves
Pick: No. 1 overall
Win percentage: .514
Towns ranks just sixth going purely on statistical translations, but his status as the No. 1 overall pick lifts him to the top of the list. That's reasonable, because even if he takes his lumps offensively while learning to play in the post, per Flip Saunders' plan for his development, Towns will be a useful rebounder and defender from day one.
2. Frank Kaminsky
Team: Charlotte Hornets
Pick: No. 9 overall
Win percentage: .514
As a four-year college player who's already 22, Kaminsky is unlikely to be the best pro from the 2015 draft. There's a reasonable chance, maybe even a good one, that he's the best player as a rookie. After all, Kaminsky won every major player-of-the-year trophy in college. Lest that be construed as a guarantee of immediate NBA success, however, keep in mind that Doug McDermott accomplished the same feat the year before.
3. Delon Wright
Team: Toronto Raptors
Pick: No. 20 overall
Win percentage: .512
Wright's well-rounded game placed him second in the NCAA in win shares last season behind Kaminsky, per Sports-Reference.com. Alas, it's unclear how much opportunity Wright will have to contribute as a rookie now that the Raptors have also signed Cory Josephto back up All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry.
4. D'Angelo Russell
Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: No. 2 overall
Win percentage: .503
In part because he played more minutes than Towns, Russell led all freshmen in win shares. His shaky performance in Las Vegas during summer league should temper expectations for his rookie season to some extent, since it is predictive of performance for rookies. However, it's unlikely Russell will shoot so poorly from 3-point range (he shot 2-for-17, 11.8 percent in Vegas) over a larger sample after making 41 percent of his 3s at Ohio State.
5. Kristaps Porzingis
Team: New York Knicks
Pick: No. 4 overall
Win percentage: .497
I think the widespread notion that Porzingis is a project is somewhat overstated. While the box score can't necessarily capture his issues dealing with stronger opponents, Porzingis was a productive player in a competitive ACB league in Spain last season. And he held his own in Vegas, averaging 18.4 points and 3.1 blocks per 36 minutes -- albeit with just 5.7 rebounds per 36.
6. R.J. Hunter
Team: Boston Celtics
Pick: No. 28 overall
Win percentage: .473
Hunter is a favorite of my projections because of his frequent 3-point attempts and high steal and block rates. After missing his first eight shots during the first two nights of the Utah Summer League, he righted the ship and made almost 39 percent of his 3s the rest of the way. Hunter bolstered his efficiency by attempting 5.4 free throws per game. But he'll have to improve at containing the ball on the perimeter to make use of his offensive skills as a rookie.
7. Willie Cauley-Stein
Team: Sacramento Kings
Pick: No. 6 overall
Win percentage: .466
In all likelihood, Cauley-Stein will be the best defensive rookie. He was a dominant shot blocker at summer league, swatting 14 attempts in 111 minutes. Cauley-Stein also showed surprising offensive potential against summer opposition, averaging 18.5 points per 36 minutes.
8. Jahlil Okafor
Team: Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: No. 3 overall
Win percentage: .459
Given his role and skills, there's a good chance Okafor is the most productive rookie in terms of traditional per-game stats. Still, the summer reinforced that even a player as skilled as Okafor will have to make adjustments to NBA-caliber defenders. He shot just 44 percent from the field and his true shooting percentage was basically identical to his shooting percentage because Okafor made just 39.1 percent of his free throw attempts.
9. Cameron Payne
Team: Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick: No. 14 overall
Win percentage: .457
We didn't get a chance to see Payne this summer because of a fractured finger he suffered on his non-shooting hand during pre-draft workouts. The injury shouldn't hold Payne back much, but with Russell Westbrook and D.J. Augustin ahead of him on the depth chart, he's unlikely to see regular minutes as a rookie.
10. Sam Dekker
Team: Houston Rockets
Pick: No. 18 overall
Win percentage: .457
Like Payne, Dekker did not see any action during summer league due to minor injury -- in his case, a sore lower back. And Dekker, too, will have to beat out veterans for playing time as a rookie, along with second-year wing K.J. McDaniels. If called upon, his translated college stats suggest Dekker will be ready.
ska23wildcats0009
Banned
NBA - The NBA Front Office analyzes what the Boston Celtics should do next
Infinite daps if you can get me this one.
@Skooby
Infinite daps if you can get me this one.
@Skooby
#NBAFrontOffice: How do the Celtics go from good to great?
Tom Penn: I think you always start with, "Do we have greatness, and if we don't have it, how are we going to get it?" So the first fundamental question is: Do we think that any players on the Celtics' roster qualify as pure, NBA-level greatness?
Amin Elhassan: Nah.
Penn: We all agree that the answer is no, right?
Kevin Pelton: Marcus Smart is the one guy on the roster with a chance to potentially be that, but he's got to improve dramatically offensively to get there.
Penn: Right, because the exciting thing for them is that they've got all kinds of assets, flexibility and tools that they can trade and use and maneuver around, but I would agree that Smart is the one young player they have who could, theoretically, if everything goes perfectly, develop into an All-Star-level player. If that's all they have then they need to stay realistic in terms of knowing how far they still have to go. So, let's recap all of the assets they have to get to that greatness.
Elhassan: I guess the most relevant pieces would be the first-round picks that they have coming via the Brooklyn Nets -- a 2016 unprotected first rounder, a 2017 pick swap, and a 2018 unprotected first-rounder. Beyond that, they've got a lot of other picks, but with various levels of protection. There's a 2016 first-rounder from Dallas that's top-seven protected for the next five years, a 2016 first-rounder from Minnesota that's top-12 protected, and if that doesn't get conveyed it just turns into second-round picks, and a 2018 first-round pick from Memphis that is top-12 protected in 2018, top-eight in 2019, top-six in 2020 and unprotected in 2021.
With many of those picks, who knows where they'll end up -- we're talking about four or five years down the line -- but at this point I would imagine that the two that have the best chance of being anything would be the picks from Brooklyn, and then to some extent I would say the protected 2016 first-round pick coming from Dallas, too. There's a good chance the Mavericks miss the playoffs this upcoming season and that pick could end up anywhere in that range from No. 8 to No. 14. It gives you a chance, at least, to do something.
Pelton: I think the best thing that happened to them this offseason was the Deron Williams buyout and then him going to Dallas, because that potentially helps both of those picks. First off, you've got a Brooklyn team that has the league's worst point guard rotation at this point with Jarrett Jack as the starter, Shane Larkin as the backup and Ryan Boatright is probably going to make the roster as the third point guard. So if something goes wrong with the Nets in the frontcourt, this season could get away from them pretty quickly and that could be a pick that enters into the lottery and finishes in the top five or so.
At the same time, Dallas, instead of sitting this season out and trying to get good again next year via free agency, it looks like they're going to be competitive in the Western Conference, but probably not a playoff team, so it looks like you will get that pick somewhere in the 10-14 range.
Amir Johnson's $12 million salary that is completely non-guaranteed up until July 3 next summer, and the same goes for Jonas Jerebko's $5 million salary. And then you've got team options that what we expect to be picked up for their guys on rookie contracts, like Smart, James Young, and Kelly Olynyk. I think that's the crux of their cap flexibility. The cap is going up, but Jerebko and Johnson also represent $17 million in waivable or tradable salary.
Pelton: And that's why those contracts are structured the way they are. I think the Johnson and Jerebko contracts are really trade chips during the 2016 draft window. You come in with possibly three first-round picks plus those non-guaranteed contracts, you can easily build up enough salary to get a DeMarcus Cousins if he becomes available -- or that kind of player. That's clearly what they're thinking with those guys. And if you don't find anything, then you do have the option of just waiting to maximize cap space, although Johnson at $12 million is probably not a terrible number for them.
Penn: How much space do they have this year?
Pelton: They're over now. They went over after the David Lee trade.
Elhassan: And next summer -- given the guaranteed guys plus the guys we're expecting them to pick up team options on -- they're looking at about $31.2 million in quasi-guaranteed money on the books next summer, but that's not including cap holds for guys like Tyler Zeller, Jared Sullinger and Perry Jones, who are all going to be restricted free agents, and I imagine the team would want to keep a qualifying offer out there to keep those guys on the books. And then, as we said, there's the $17 million in non-guaranteed salary between Johnson and Jerebko.
Penn: Right, so they kind of have what they have for this season unless they do a trade. Lee is an interesting trade chip in combination with the draft picks as well. You'd be trading a guy on an expiring contract who is a good guy and will come and play his tail off wherever he goes because he's in part playing for his next contract. I think they can grow organically with what they have and wait until next summer, or they can use Lee as a principal trade chip with the draft picks to do an opportunistic deal to get the guy they want. But those are going to be harder to do because there's no financial pressure on teams anymore with the cap going way up. In the old days, there would be tax pressure that would cause teams to dump talents. Now the only reason a team is going to dump talent is because it's not working out.
Elhassan: The one thing I'll say is this: Sometimes people look at cap space and say, "Well who can they go out and sign?" I'm look at it as who can they go out and trade for. Let's say Kevin Love is having another lackluster season with the Cavaliers -- it's not what they envisioned out of him as far as the star-talent that he has. That's a team that, if I'm the Celtics, I'm calling up every week if things aren't going as smoothly as anticipated. The Celtics can offer a number of pieces that can probably approximate what Love is giving Cleveland if he's under-performing, and at the same time Boston can get a player who can be a star and a focal-point.
Pelton: To me, the big thing with Boston is that they're obviously in this state of limbo, waiting for a trade to acquire a star player, but the upside is that they're not in a position where they aren't competitive while they're waiting for that to happen. This was one of the top five or six teams in the Eastern Conference after they added Isaiah Thomas at the trade deadline last season, and I think they have the potential to be in a similar spot to that this season in the East with Johnson filling one of their biggest needs with his rim protection. They're going to be in the mix to potentially even win a playoff series in the East.
Penn: That's a great point, because we always talk about making changes, but what they've done is assembled a very competitive and attractive team -- assuming they win. I mean, it's the best talent Brad Stevens has had. You've got to remember that next summer's free-agent competition is going to be off the hook because everybody's going to have room, so free agents are going to very much value the quality of the team. So the Celtics may get their greatness with the right free agent who wants to join the competent and competitive core that's going to be there.
Pelton: And I think they're going to count on Stevens as a big selling point. This came up last week on the Lowe Post Podcast when Zach Lowe was talking to Jared Dudley and he said guys around the league are buzzing about how good of a coach Stevens is. Dudley went out of his way to say how good he is and that if the money were similar guys might want to play in Boston instead of somewhere else.
Elhassan: To me, free agency is a nice plan, but absent of, like, an agent telling me that he's bringing a star here next summer, I'm keeping my pulse on every single flash point around the league, whether it's Love in Cleveland, or Cousins in Sacramento, or Eric Bledsoe in Phoenix. It happens. It's cyclical in this league. Someone is not happy with where they are, or the team is not happy. One man's junk is another man's treasure. You've got to identify those situations, keep a pulse and keep a running dialogue with those organizations to package those assets that we talked about earlier.
Pelton: Besides those guys, no one else really comes to mind for me in terms of possibly disgruntled players who could become available.
Danilo Gallinari is one situation that they'll be sure to monitor, although he's still kind of a B-level player like they already have. The guy I bet they're targeting in free agency is Al Horford.
Elhassan: That's a good name.
Pelton: He fills their need for a rim protector and can play with almost any of their big men because of his versatility. Johnson does some similar things, he's just not nearly as talented. Horford is kind of a rich-man's version of Johnson. He'd be by far their best big man.
Elhassan: Absolutely. He's a culture builder, and while that hasn't been as much of a need over there -- they have a good core as far as character guys and good locker room guys -- but someone like Horford brings a certain credibility to the table, not only from a talent standpoint but also the leadership aspect in the locker room. And as Kevin said, his versatility as a player comes in handy. He can play the five, he can play the four, he's a very good midrange shooter, he's OK out to the 3-point corners, he rebounds and he defends multiple positions. He'd definitely move the culture forward, but I think you're still left wanting something else to go along with him. He's not that guy who can just come in and you'll say, "Alright, we've got him, now let's go win our championship."
Pelton: I think one thing maybe you're hoping for -- since you're still going to have so much cap space with all of those rookie contracts and flexibility -- is that if you get one of those guys it makes it easier to go out the next summer and get the next guy.
Elhassan: Or even that same summer. We saw that with Phoenix this offseason. They went out and got Tyson Chandler and their plan was that it would give them added credibility in the free-agent market to go after LaMarcus Aldridge. That didn't work out because they were going up against a much mightier foe then your standard free-agent rival as far as the San Antonio Spurs go, but it's a decent strategy. If you're trying to prove to somebody that you're a really good team and they should want to be a part of it because it's special, well, having a guy like Horford really bolsters that claim, as opposed to saying that you'll be good in a couple of years.
The question is if Horford would be willing to go there and leave the Hawks, the only team he's known. They've had a considerable amount of success in the last couple of seasons. They're expected to be at least one of the top four teams in the East this season. Would Horford want to move on?
Pelton: And that's where I think -- hot take alert -- the Celtics might be better than the Hawks this year.
Elhassan: Oh! Sound the alarm!
Finding a star in 2016
Penn: This is still all just so speculative. It's sort of silly to think about a free agent that far out and how he fits and if you can build around him. That's the challenge, and the new normal is exactly what Amin was saying. In free agency, you're going to be competing against everyone the next two seasons because virtually everyone will have cap room. The Spurs should have it again. Golden State will have cap room. The rich are going to have a chance to get richer if they want to. If things go well, the Celtics are in good shape to add a stud, because they have a good coach and they're on the up-swing and they have a good core, but things have got to go well for that to happen. They are still a ways away from the finished product.
They're going to have to be patiently aggressive. They're just going to have to wait until the wheels fall off the cart and a real talented player is available, and then the combination they'll have to offer will be expiring contracts and future draft picks if they want to get a Cousins-type talent who is under contract.
Elhassan: Here's what's going on. No fewer than 15 teams are going to have $20 million or more in cap space next summer. That's the projection. You've got a salary cap going up to around $89 million. Every team needs to spend at least 90 percent of that to get to the floor. So 90 percent of $89 million is $80 million. And as I said, you've got several teams that are going to be far, far below that. A lot of guys are going to get paid by default, like, "I like you and if I give you this number right now, you're coming right now." Why haggle and mess around when you have to reach this $80 million number anyway?
The problem is that for a team like the Celtics, if we're talking about the blue-chip talent, the highest level guys, their money is their money. So it's not like you can overpay a max guy; he's getting the max. Now, we can argue whether Horford is a max guy. We can argue whether Mike Conley, who was in the same draft class, is a max guy. You can argue those to me, but I guess what I'm saying is that there's a level at which if you're that good, if you're that much of a game-changer, the opportunity to overpay for your services isn't really going to be available to many of these teams.
Pelton: Right, if you can't compete on price then you're going to have to compete on other factors like the ability to win, coach, or the environment, things like that. So the better the Celtics do this season then the better their chances are in free agency. It's kind of a Matthew effect -- to those that have more, more will be given.
Penn: I believe that money is the primary factor for these free agents because their opportunities to ring the bell are so few and far between. They probably only get two or three of those per career, and so what's interesting and impossible to know is how the years on these contracts will begin to matter a lot more, because we're embarking on a new era of significant free agency every season. And everybody's going to have similar money to offer, so it's going to come down to how many years you offer.
Elhassan: And remember, like I said earlier, the Celtics can't just outbid everybody for a guy like Horford. They can't outbid the Hawks, for one, but more importantly, there are so many other teams who are going to have that kind of money. If anyone else is as serious about Horford as they are, then there's no outbidding, because everybody has money to spend. And that's why the trick is you do one of two things. You find a free agent who really isn't highly valued. You've got to do what Orlando did in 2000 and say, "Well, even though everybody thinks Tracy McGrady is a sidekick, we think he's a star and we're going to give him the max." You've got to make that kind of plunge.
Or, you eliminate the guesswork and you go out and trade for someone who's already under contract. You know he's good. You don't have to, in theory at least, negotiate against 14 other suitors. You just basically have to put together a nice enough package, and if you're the Celtics you do have enough pieces to make a competitive play for one of these guys like Cousins or Love, compared to the other teams that are sort of doing the same kind of strategy. But to go into free agency thinking, "OK, Horford, that's our guy," unless you have an under-the-table deal with his agent -- which isn't rare, it's happened before -- there are no guarantees there. You don't know how many other teams out there are going to have that same approach.
Pelton: Every max guy is going to have multiple max offers. That's just the way it's going to be.
ska23wildcats0009
Banned
NBA -- How NBA greats, like Shaquille O'Neal and Allen Iverson, compare to recent baseball Hall of Famers
@Skooby
thanks man!!!!! I got you bigtime!!!!!
@Skooby
thanks man!!!!! I got you bigtime!!!!!
Tier 1: Championship contenders
Cleveland Cavaliers
With J.R. Smith and Tristan Thompson as yet unsigned, there's still work for the Cavaliers to do. Even without those players, Cleveland would still be the heavy favorite to win the Eastern Conference. With them, the Cavaliers would have a chance to be more competitive if they return to the NBA Finals. Given the quality of the Western Conference's top teams, Cleveland's position as championship favorites by Las Vegas linesmakers is perhaps a bit of a stretch, but certainly the Cavaliers have the best odds of reaching the Finals by a wide margin.
Tier 2: Championship hopefuls
None.
The defining feature of this season's Eastern Conference is the large gap between Cleveland and the rest of the conference. While some other challenger will inevitably rise from the pack, there's no other team that appears certain to win 50-plus games.
Tier 3: Likely playoff teams
Atlanta Hawks
While the Hawks won 60 games a season ago, several factors are working against a repeat. Atlanta's point differential (plus-5.4 ppg) was more typical of a 55-win team, and teams like the Hawks, who have improved their record by at least 20 games from one season to the next, have regressed two wins the following season. Add in the loss of starting forwardDeMarre Carroll, and Atlanta is likely to return to the 45-50 win range the team has occupied much of the past decade.
Boston Celtics
Consider the Celtics a sleeper to claim home-court advantage and/or win a playoff series. Boston had the East's second-best record (20-11, .645) and fourth-best point differential (plus-2.9 PPG) after acquiring Isaiah Thomas at the trade deadline. While the Celtics didn't land a star this summer, the addition of veteran Amir Johnson strengthens their biggest weakness, interior defense.
Chicago Bulls
Because of their track record and because they battled a weakened Cleveland team evenly through the first four games of their playoff series, the Bulls' 2014-15 season seemed better than it was. Chicago won 50 games with a slightly weaker point differential (plus-3.0) than that would generally imply. If Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah are healthier, the Bulls could bounce back, but otherwise they are counting on the arrival of Fred Hoiberg to lift them back into serious contention after bringing back a largely similar cast.
Miami Heat
No team in the NBA has a wider range of realistic outcomes in 2015-16 than the Heat. With a stacked starting lineup featuring Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside -- all but Whiteside having either been an All-Star or All-NBA player in the past three seasons -- Miami could emerge as the biggest threat to the Cavaliers. But if Wade is plagued by injuries and Whiteside is unable to produce consistently, it's not inconceivable that Miami could end up in the lottery again.
Toronto Raptors
After a fast start to 2014-15 ended in a disappointing first-round sweep, the Raptors remade their roster in a more defensive mold over the summer. Replacing Greivis Vasquez and Lou Williams with DeMarre Carroll and Cory Joseph should get the Raptors closer to how they played in 2013-14, when the team ranked ninth on a per-possession basis at both ends of the floor before slipping to 23rd in defensive rating last season.
Washington Wizards
The loss of Paul Pierce will make it difficult for the Wizards to build on a playoff run that depended heavily on Pierce's big shots and ability to wreak havoc as a small-ball power forward. Getting Jared Dudley for a heavily-protected second-round pick was a decent save for Washington, but Dudley is coming off back surgery. And despite the presence of young stars John Wall and Bradley Beal, the Wizards have one of the league's oldest rosters. So expect another season in the middle of the East pack.
Tier 4: Playoff hopefuls
Charlotte Hornets
There's a realistic chance this is the best Charlotte team since the NBA returned to the Queen City via expansion in 2004-05. Improved shooting with the arrival of Nicolas Batum, Spencer Hawes and Frank Kaminsky should help the Hornets to respectability on offense. Given Charlotte has had a top-10 defense both seasons under Steve Clifford, that should be enough to get the Hornets back to the playoffs -- and maybe even win a game this time.
Detroit Pistons
After their disastrous 5-23 start, the Pistons went 27-27 the rest of the season. And they could have been better. Having added Reggie Jackson at the trade deadline, Detroit went 11-17 in the second half despite a dead-even point differential. With the addition of Ersan Ilyasova, the Pistons seem better constructed around their core of Jackson and center Andre Drummond.
Indiana Pacers
It's tough to envision a Pacers team playing small ball without Roy Hibbert in the middle, the experiment Indiana has undertaken with its offseason moves. With better spacing around improved shot creation from the likes ofMonta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey, this could be the best Pacers offense in years. But it's unclear whether Indiana can hold up defensively with severely compromised rim protection.
Milwaukee Bucks
While the Bucks are building an intriguing young core, there are reasons to believe they might take a slight step backward in 2015-16 despite the addition of Greg Monroe. After all, Milwaukee made an even bigger leap than Atlanta, winning 26 more games than 2013-14. And of the four full-season Buckswith the best net ratings on the court last season per NBA.com/stats, onlyKhris Middleton returns. (Dudley, Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia were the others.)
Tier 5: Playoff long shots
New York Knicks
The Knicks should be improved from last season solely by virtue of having NBA-caliber players throughout their rotation, led by a healthy Carmelo Anthony. Still, New York hasn't done nearly enough to close the gap on the playoff contenders. Derrick Williams isn't a credible starting power forward, andArron Afflalo's reputation dramatically outstripped his performance last season. Only at center have the Knicks found an average starter in free agency with Robin Lopez.
Orlando Magic
Orlando is probably still a season away from making real noise in the Eastern Conference. New head coach Scott Skiles' experience in his previous stop with Milwaukee might offer a guide. The Bucks improved by eight wins in Skiles' first season at the helm, almost entirely at the defensive end, but it wasn't until the second season that Skiles put together a top-five defense and got Milwaukee in the playoffs.
Tier 6: Likely lottery teams
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets' second-half surge was something of a mirage. While Brooklyn went 17-13 after adding Thaddeus Young, the team was outscored by 0.9 points per game. And that was with Deron Williams at point guard. The Nets outscored opponents by 1.6 points per 100 possessions with Williams on the court during the second half, per NBA.com/stats. Brooklyn was minus-6.0 points per 100 possessions after the break with replacementJarrett Jack on the court. Gulp.
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia probably belongs in a tier of its own. The Sixers don't look much closer to competing with Joel Embiid likely out for the season and no veteran additions in free agency. Philadelphia should have better shooting with the arrival of Nik Stauskas and a full season of Isaiah Canaan, and Jahlil Okafor gives them an offensive anchor. But the Sixers' move up the standings is probably a season away.
