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Skooby

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Ranking Eastern Conference teams by roster construction

There is a widespread belief that teams led by superstars have an edge in the playoffs over teams that win with depth and balance. For example, the Atlanta Hawks won the top seed in the East with ease last year after a 60-win regular season.


Still, pretty much everyone saw the Cleveland Cavaliers as the favorites to make the Finals. Why the disconnect? Simply put, the Cavs had LeBron James and the Hawks did not. Sure enough, when the teams met in the conference finals, James led the injury-depleted Cavs to a four-game sweep.

James has long been one of a handful of elite players in the league, often on a tier of his own; any team would gladly put him atop its roster. But the NBA is made up players of differing levels of ability, and the formula for winning a championship is much more complex than just signing LeBron or someone near his level. It involves building a roster of players on varying tiers who fit together and complement the rarefied talent of a team's cornerstone players.



Players by tier, typical season
Tier Number of players
Elite of the elite 3-6
Superstar 13-20
Upper-tier starter 17-25
Starting quality 95-100
Rotation reserves ~125
Deep reserves ~110
Fringe players Everyone else


The breakdown of NBA players by tier in a typical season features around 50 very good to great players in the top three tiers, 200 solid players in the next two tiers, and then a bottom two tiers of everyone else. For our analysis, a player is assigned to a tier according to his projected individual winning percentage for next season -- the per-possession component of Wins Above Replacement (WARP). The tiers were determined by player scarcity, in which the handful of elite players rank at the top and are disproportionately valuable. For example, just five players project to be in the highest tier for the 2015-16 season: James, Stephen Curry, James Harden, Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant.

A team's tier score is based on its anticipated 10-man rotation. The average title-winning rotation during the 3-point era has been made up of one player from each of the top three tiers, three more starting-caliber players, and four legitimate second-unit players. The closer you get to that ideal depth chart, the better off you will be come playoff time. The value of each tier was determined by calculating the highest possible correlation between tier score and postseason success.

Here's the breakdown of each tier and corresponding point values:



Player tiers
Tier Winning Pct. Tier points
Elite of the Elite .739 and above 16
Superstar .646 to .739 10
Upper-Tier Starter .600 to .645 5
Starter .505 to .599 2
Second-Unit .426 to .504 1
Deep Reserve .425 or less 0
Fringe > 300 min. played 0


With that in mind, let's look at the Eastern Conference, ranked by tier score. Remember, this is not projection of the regular-season standings. That's where analysis like Kevin Pelton's pecking order comes in. Think of it like this: If two teams of a similar record meet at playoff time -- in a vacuum -- the team with the higher tier score is most likely the actual favorite.





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1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tier score: 32
Breakdown: Elite: 1, Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 2; Starters: 1; Second-unit: 4; Deep reserves: 2

The Cavaliers are one of just five teams in the league with a tier score higher than the average for the 36 champions of the 3-point era -- and the only team in the East. That, of course, begins with James, who safely remains on the top tier of players in the league. In fact, if we really wanted to fine-tune our tiers, he might still be on a level by himself. Of the five players who rate in the elite tier, James is the only one in the East. He's not alone, of course, with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love both ranking as upper-tier starters. Only two other teams in the league feature three players from the top three tiers. The Cavs do have two projected deep reserves in their 10-man rotation, but one of those slots would be upgraded if J.R. Smith eventually re-signs. We are including the unsigned Tristan Thompson on Cleveland's depth chart, as he's a restricted free agent.





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2. Indiana Pacers
Tier score: 22
Breakdown: Elite: 0, Superstars: 1; Upper-tier starters: 1; Starters: 0; Second-unit: 7; Deep reserves: 1

This sort of diversion from expectations is where the analysis is really interesting. The Pacers currently project as a .500ish team, though the reality is we are lacking key knowledge about next year's club. How will they adapt to a new playing style? Will Paul Georgebe fully recovered from his broken leg? If so, that's where the Pacers' tier score can be validated. George projects as a superstar, and there are only three such players in the conference. Indiana has another upper-tier starter in George Hill. Beyond that, the Pacers' depth chart is entirely filled out by players who rate as second-unit performers. Life in the East.





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3. Toronto Raptors
Tier score: 19
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 1; Starters: 5; Second-unit: 4; Deep reserves: 0

The Raptors could be a better playoff squad next season with a depth chart containing few holes. Toronto has six players who rate as starting-caliber and four more who are legitimate second-unit performers. Only four other teams in the league feature a 10-man rotation that doesn't dip into the bottom tiers. Of course, what the Raptors really need is for someone to jump into one of the top two tiers.





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4. Detroit Pistons
Tier score: 19
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 1; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 2; Second-unit: 5; Deep reserves: 2

The Pistons have some holes, but in Andre Drummond they carry a superstar forecast. Ersan Ilyasova gives Detroit another solid starter, with Reggie Jackson perhaps developing into another. For years, the Pistons have disappointed because of poor fit. Now, at least, there is a plan in place: Put Drummond at the center of everything and give him room to operate. Maybe it doesn't work, but the range of possibility has been increased. If Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and rookie Stanley Johnson take off, so will the Pistons.





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5. Atlanta Hawks
Tier score: 18
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 1; Starters: 5; Second-unit: 3; Deep reserves: 1

The Hawks still project as one of the best teams in the East, but this kind of analysis underscores what the Hawks are up against. Their depth has to somehow counter Cleveland's star power.





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6. Miami Heat
Tier score: 16
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 7; Second-unit: 2; Deep reserves: 1

Miami is in a similar situation to Atlanta, though many will tout the Heat's roster because of the name recognition. In reality, that does give Heat fans hope. Depth has been an issue in the past, but now that seems like an obvious strength. That will only help one or two players to perform like superstars. Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade are the obvious candidates, but Hassan Whiteside could be another.



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7. Chicago Bulls
Tier score: 15
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars; 0, Upper-tier starters: 1; Starters: 3; Second-unit: 4; Deep reserves: 2

If it weren't for the hiring of Fred Hoiberg, things would seem stale in Chicago. This is a pretty old team that still is pinning a lot of hope on Derrick Rose returning to MVP form. Maybe Joakim Noah is healthier, maybe Pau Gasol continues to defy the aging process, maybe Jimmy Butler gets even better -- or maybe none of these things happen. You could see the Bulls taking a step in either direction this season, but that will be largely dependent on how well Chicago adapts to Hoiberg's system.





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8. Charlotte Hornets
Tier score: 15
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 5; Second-unit: 5; Deep reserves: 0

Charlotte might be gunning for mediocrity. Still, the Hornets have built a depth chart that contains five players on the starters' tier and five more on the second unit. The big question is whether any of the Hornets' young players can leap into the upper ranks.





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9. Washington Wizards
Tier score: 13
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 1; Starters: 1; Second-unit: 6; Deep reserves: 2

Washington's outlook improves with the development of three young veterans. John Wall is an upper-tier starter with the potential for even more. Bradley Beal and Otto Porter need to translate their playoff performances to the long season. Marcin Gortat is a solid starting center, but the rest of the roster is comprised of a lot of 30-something role players in decline. Nene headlines that list.





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10. Milwaukee Bucks
Tier score: 11
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 3; Second-unit: 5; Deep reserves: 2

As a group, the young Bucks have no one who projects to be in any of the top three tiers. At the same time, you would not be surprised if three or four among Khris Middleton, Greg Monroe, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Michael Carter-Williams and evenJohn Henson make that leap. The Bucks are still more potential than production, but few teams have more potential.





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11. Boston Celtics
Tier score: 11
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 3; Second-unit: 5; Deep reserves: 2

The addition of David Lee gives the Celtics a third starting-caliber player, and there aren't a lot of major holes on the depth chart. Boston has no one projected for one of the top three tiers, and it's the search for that kind of player that drives Danny Ainge these days.





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12. New York Knicks
Tier score: 10
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 2; Second-unit: 6; Deep reserves: 2

Carmelo Anthony's projection is just a few points shy of upper-tier status, and if he's healthy, you can easily see him getting there. Robin Lopez is also a solid starter. The rest of the roster is full of question marks.





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13. Brooklyn Nets
Tier score: 10
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 1; Starters: 0; Second-unit: 5; Deep reserves: 4

The more I look at it, the more I think the Nets will be truly putrid this season. But they do have Brook Lopez.





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14. Orlando Magic
Tier score: 8
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 2; Second-unit: 4; Deep reserves: 4

Like the Bucks, the Magic's short-term forecast is tepid, but the long-term outlook is bright. This year they add rookie Mario Hezonja to their collection of young players who might land in the upper tiers before too long.





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15. Philadelphia 76ers
Tier score: 8
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 1; Second-unit: 6; Deep reserves: 3

The Sixers have won 19 and 18 games last season and the season before, respectively. While Jahlil Okafor could eventually be a franchise cornerstone and Nerlens Noel might be one of the league's best defenders, it's hard to imagine Philly winning many more games than they have the past two seasons. They might not even win as many.
 

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How NBA greats compare to recent baseball Hall of Famers


Two weeks ago, the Baseball Hall of Fame inducted four players into Cooperstown, which got me thinking:

Who are the NBA equivalents of these baseball greats?


This is the sort of question you come up with in the summer months while you're searching for ways to scratch the NBA itch. For me, it wasn't totally random. As a student of sabermetrics coming out of college in 2008, I broke into the sports industry by breaking down the numbers of baseball. In 2009, I switched over to the NBA in which the line of statistical analysts was far shorter. If you could call it a line at all.

As a kid, I grew up watching Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Craig Biggio, the museum's four most recent call-ups. This round hit particularly close to home. I'm a Red Sox fan who grew up outside of New York City. Martinez was and still is a hero of mine, a leader of the 2004 Red Sox squad that finally won it all and brought my Boston-bred father to tears.

In the spirit of August NBA writing, let's bridge baseball and basketball to identify the cross-sport comps of this year's Hall of Fame inductees. To be clear, this doesn't exactly follow a scientific method, but rest assured I did loads of research to pick each of my favorite NBA comps. Indeed, statistical accomplishments weighed heavily as well as their more qualitative characteristics.

But this is more art than science. Disagree? Good. This is supposed to be fun.

Let's get to it.



The NBA's Randy Johnson: Shaquille O'Neal
I almost went with monster-lefty David Robinson or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (another freakishly tall iron man), but here's why Shaq is the NBA's Randy Johnson.

1. Sheer size

Duh. As far as human beings go, O'Neal and Johnson checked in as physical outliers. Shaq stood 7-foot-1 and weighed in well more than 300 pounds (probably closer to 350 at times), but moved around the court like a springy forward in his prime. In a sport of giants, no one could hang with him.

On the mound, Johnson made opposing hitters look like Little Leaguers. Standing at 6-10, Johnson often had a full foot on his opponents who trembled in the batter's box. Johnson's sweeping left hand seemed to cross home plate as he flung his delivery, leaving hitters flailing like a blindfolded child swinging at a piñata. There's a reason they were called The Big Aristotle and The Big Unit.

2. Dominance quantified: strikeouts and dunks

What made O'Neal and Johnson so unique isn't that they were enormous but that they both successfully leveraged their size to complete physical dominance. It took Johnson a while before he honed in his unhittable fastball and slider combination, but he finished his career with the second-most strikeouts in MLB history (4,875) and the highest strikeout-per-nine-inning ratio (10.61). In 2001, the season in which Johnson won the World Series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, he struck out 372 batters, a total that hadn't been reached in more than 30 years.

O'Neal did the NBA equivalent: he dunked all over everybody and everything. Dunks have been tracked officially only since 1997, which leaves out Shaq's first four seasons. But even still, he registered 2,665 dunks since 1997, which is about 500 dunks more than the next most-proliferous dunker on record (Dwight Howard's 2,148). In fact, during the three-peat seasons with the Lakers between 2000 and 2002, Shaq dunked 746 times; no one else had more than 400. Johnson and Shaq dominated at the same time.

3. Starred for multiple teams over long careers

Big uniforms, big personalities. Johnson and O'Neal moved around a bunch in their sport. Johnson played for six teams over his 22-year career, earning Cy Young awards in both the American League (Seattle Mariners) and National League (Arizona Diamondbacks). Unlike Smoltz, there's some debate over which hat Johnson should have worn in the Hall of Fame (he ended up wearing a snake over the nautical compass).

After being drafted No. 1 overall by Orlando, Shaq experienced similar changes of scenery over his 18-year career. He won three consecutive titles in LakerLand before taking his talents to Miami, where he won his fourth and final ring. O'Neal spent a season and a half in Phoenix, which is probably the equivalent of Johnson's pitstop with the Houston Astros for a summer. Like Johnson with Curt Schilling, Shaq won the big one as part of a Big Two (Kobe Bryant in Los Angeles and Dwyane Wade in Miami).


The NBA's Pedro Martinez: Allen Iverson

This was a tough one, because it's hard for me to say there is another Pedro Martinez, but Iverson is my pick over some other all-time ballers like Chris Paul, John Stockton and Jerry West.

1. Little engines that could

Just like O'Neal and Johnson, you have to start with size when it comes to Martinez and Iverson. Their talents made them great, but their diminutive size made them legends. Martinez was listed at 5-11 and 170 pounds, but he looked tinier than that dominating the so-called steroid era. He made up for his relative lack of height by having freakishly backward-bending fingers that flung the baseball like a jai alai server.

Iverson made up for his size with absurd athleticism that helped make him Virginia's Associated Press High School Player of the Year -- in football and basketball -- as a junior. Despite standing just 6-0, Iverson dunked 127 times in his career, which is more thanDerrick Rose, Kyrie Irving and Stephen Curry so far combined (120). None is as short as Iverson.

2. They clowned opponents

From a pitching skill standpoint, Martinez may have had the nastiest stuff in baseball history with not one, not two, but three devastating out pitches. And he took extra pride in undressing opposing hitters in the batter's box. Watch clips of his historic 17-strikeout game against the New York Yankees in 1999 -- the most ever against the Bronx Bombers to this day -- and you'll catch third baseman Scott Brosius striking out swinging on a pitch that bounced five feet outside the plate. Martinez once quipped, "Wake up the damn Bambino and have me face him. Maybe I'll drill him in the ass."

Iverson was no different. Worshiped for his signature crossover that sent his defenders tumbling to the floor, Iverson played with extra bravado and fearlessness that made him a cultural icon. If you're an NBA fan of any kind, you've seen the Michael Jordancrossover, the Tyronn Lue stepover in the Finals or the putback dunk over Marcus Camby at least a hundred times.

3. Revered even with briefer peaks

Martinez and Iverson both reached cult status despite having careers that tailed off relatively sooner than their elite peers. Dominican flags in attendance during Martinez's starts seemingly outnumbered any of his team's merchandise. A nation of hoopers wanted to not just play like Iverson, but look like him too. He popularized the hip-hop style across an entire generation.

From a production perspective, Iverson was not nearly as good as Martinez was, but they shared the quicker demise that seemed inevitable given their size and relentless style. Iverson was out of the league by 34; Martinez didn't win 10 games in a season after 33. As a player, Martinez was a better version of Iverson. Culturally, Iverson's tidal wave was larger.


The NBA's John Smoltz: Manu Ginobili
This was the easiest of the bunch. With apologies to Tim Duncan and Ray Allen, here's a rundown of why Ginobili is Argentinean for "Smoltzie":

1. Elite off the bench

Perhaps the most defining characteristic of John Smoltz's career is his late-career renaissance as a reliever. A Cy Young winner in 1996 and an elite starter for about a decade with the Atlanta Braves, Smoltz converted to a closer after Tommy John surgery in 2000 and rejuvenated his career as a bullpen force. He notched an MLB-high 55 saves in 2002 as part of his four-year run as the Braves' closer. He was an All-Star in both roles and won the top reliever award.

Ginobili? Similar tale. As an All-Star for the championship squad in 2005, Ginobili transitioned into a Sixth Man of the Year to anchor the second unit during his prime in 2006-07 and won a title that way. In the NBA Finals-clinching game over the Cleveland Cavaliers that season, Ginobili scored eight of his 27 points in the final minute to lead the Spurs to a one-point victory. Like Smoltz, Ginobili moved back into the starting lineup and predictably had no problem excelling.

2. Essential part of historic triumvirate

You can't talk about Smoltz without talking about Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, the two other Hall of Fame starters that the Braves' trotted out as a three-headed monster for the better part of the 1990s. In terms of starting pitching trios, good luck finding one better than the one Smoltz was in.

Same goes for Ginobili and his Spurs' teammates. With Ginobili, Duncan and Tony Parker, the Spurs built a dynasty that spanned decades. And it's still going. Ginobili has yet to win an MVP like Duncan or a Finals MVP like Parker, and Smoltz had the least hardware in his trio too.

3. Inspiration to balding men everywhere

As someone who's battling a receding hairline before he celebrates his 30th birthday (and losing), I can say that I draw inspiration from both Smoltz's and Ginobili's ability to thrive without a full head of hair. Every time Smoltz took his hat off to reveal a shiny scalp, millions of men cheered in solidarity. Ginobili has no hat, but he added compensatory facial hair like Smoltzie.


The NBA's Craig Biggio: Reggie Miller

This one was a headache. I debated leaning toward a glue guy like Shane Battier or Bruce Bowen, but they didn't quite hit the same heights as Biggio. I thought about a feisty point guard like Stockton or Paul, but ultimately one guy filled more check boxes than the others.

1. Long, solid career with one team

Biggio played 20 seasons with the Houston Astros and didn't retired until the age of 41, when he played with a rookie by the name of Hunter Pence in 2007. Though Biggio was named to seven All-Star teams, he wasn't considered the best player of his era, never finishing in the top three in MVP voting. He was a metronome of good, solid play.

Miller played until just shy of his 40th birthday, all for the same team that drafted him in 1987, the Indiana Pacers. Like Biggio, Miller was a perennial All-Star in the late '90s, but was rarely mentioned as the best of his time. As Houston and Indiana fans can attest, they both never won a title in their long tenures with their respective franchises.

2. Known for peskiness/embellishment

At 5-11 and 185 pounds, one would imagine it'd be easy to miss Biggio with a pitch, but he became the world's greatest bean bag in the sport. Biggio holds the modern-day record for number of hit-by-pitches with 285. When a pitch came inside, he stood in and let it bounce off his signature elbow pad, drawing the ire of dozens of pitchers over the years. Then, he'd go steal a base.

Miller ranks as perhaps the most reviled villain in New York sports history and one of the great on-court actors of his time. Biggio was known for keeping his arm in the way of contact, while Miller built a reputation for sticking his leg out just far enough on his jumper to get the whistle. Miller goes down as one of the best free-throw shooters in NBA history, and the sharpest at getting there.

3. Finesse, not power

Biggio was all about the in-between game, not the long ball. He averaged a solid 14.6 home runs per season in the bigs, but was a leaderboard mainstay in doubles, walks, stolen bases and hit-by-pitches. Though he didn't go deep all that much, Biggio moved his way around the field as a catcher, second baseman and outfielder, providing extra value in his versatility.

Miller wasn't a "five-tool player" like Biggio, but he wasn't a straight power guy either. Instead, he ruled from the perimeter, where he broke the record for career 3-pointers. He was efficient on the margins in the same way that Biggio tried to get on base by any means possible.
 

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Thon Maker 3D: College and NBA impact, Maker in his own words

Thon Maker isn’t eligible for our ESPN 100, but there’s no denying that college coaches and NBA scouts are both well aware of him and ranking him against the best the 2016 class has to offer on their own boards. How does Maker fare in those comparisons?

College impact
If Maker ever plays college basketball, he’s going to make an immediate and substantial impact on both ends of the floor. It doesn’t get much better than his combination of size, athleticism, agility and a high motor. He erases mistakes with his shot-blocking ability, cleans the glass with a purpose even when he isn’t getting the touches he should offensively and has an absolutely unrivaled ability to cover the court. Offensively, he’s extremely skilled for his size with a high basketball IQ, and that, in combination with his physical tools and consequent ability to finish around the rim, makes him potentially very versatile and a luxury to game-plan for from a coaching perspective.

College coaches on Maker's ambitions

“I’m not sure he’ll ever really come [to the college level], and if he did it would only be because he needed to raise his [draft] stock. That would be a big part of coaching him, to recognize what the motivations are for him, but if he gives you all he has on the defensive end, you’ve got to meet him halfway offensively.”

“For all that I’ve heard and read about the kid, the one thing I can tell you is that he’s played his tail off every time I’ve seen him this summer.”

Maker on his impact

“I can control the whole defensive half of the floor. So that’s where it starts mainly. It’s contagious and it gets my whole team going also. When they see one guy going really aggressive on the glass, rebounding, blocking shots and just being tough, being intense at all times, and always focused on the small details, it gets the whole team sharp.”

Maker on whether he’s physically ready for the collegiate level

“That’s a good question. It depends on where I end up and how I will be used. Let’s say I end up at a school that needs a center, now I’ve got to play the five spot. If I go to a team that already has a big man, now I have to go on the move and the other team is chasing. I’m still working on my body … still working.”



NBA potential
Everything that we said above is still valid -- even by NBA standards Maker's combination of size, agility, athleticism, skill and motor is top-notch, and makes him a likely lottery pick. Just how high he ultimately ends up getting drafted might have more to do with things off the floor (i.e. his physical and projected durability, and other factors that arise in the pre-draft process), but there’s no denying that his abilities translate to the highest level. Another really interesting part about Maker is that his understanding of the game might actually be the highest among the four potential top-ranked prospects (Giles, Tatum, Jackson). His ability to articulate the nuances, not just of the game itself, but of his own development, was extremely impressive. He recognizes the need to continue developing his body and to that end he’s gone from 191 pounds to 218 within the last year by eating seven meals a day and lifting six times per week.

College coach on criticism of Maker

“I’m not sure why everyone seemed to be killing the kid. He’s an obvious pro.”

Maker on how he’s best utilized offensively

"When I get [to work with] pro coaches and stuff like that, they really know how to use me. I can be a stretch-four later on in the league, but right now in high school, we’re trying to work off the elbows and also on the move. It’s very dangerous because you can’t double the elbow, you can’t trap and I can see over the defense, can pass, can shoot it from there, can put it on the floor one or two dribbles.”

Maker on what areas of his game he’s working on the most

“I have a few jump hooks that right now I can get away with, but at the next level I really need to improve on getting them cleanly. If you go back and watch Julius Randle in college, guys got their hands on his ball every now and then when he played the four, so really I’m working on not getting the ball touched. Then I’m working on small choppy steps in certain areas and just having good footwork in small tight areas. Defensively, I’m working on cutting the ball off, like when the guards get beat and I’m deciding whether I should go for a block or stay with my man. Sometimes I have a battle over that [laughs] but that’s because I’m worried about my teammate not wedging me out.”

Maker on watching tape of great players

“I learned that habit from my brother. He’s always got his iPad and is watching the NBA players, the greats, he’s always watching and studying them. I’m watching guys like Kevin Garnett, 19 years in the league and you know exactly what he did to stay that long because you have it on the Internet, so you've just got to go there and find it. So I study guys like that.”



The race for Number 1 in the ESPN 100
Harry Giles is the consensus No. 1 right now, and while Maker likely would fall somewhere between 2 and 4 if he were included in our rankings, it was only one year ago that we were referring to him as the most talented player regardless of class, and suffice it to say, this summer he reminded us all what we used to be so excited about.

College coach on where Maker would rank

“If it’s about who's the first pick in the draft, it’s probably Giles. If it’s about winning a game tomorrow, you've got to stop and think about that one.”

Maker on whether he's the best player in the Class of 2016

“I’ve not played against everybody, but to me myself, yes I do [think I'm the best player in the country]. But I’m always looking for the guys that people consider the best. I want to play everybody and see how I match up against them and [let that] dictate what I need to work on and then go in and work on those things.”
 

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great look on that piece you posted above....

I'll take another though.

Josh Jackson 3D: College and NBA impact, Jackson in his own words - On The Trail - ESPN


@Skooby

Josh Jackson 3D: College and NBA impact, Jackson in his own words


With a handful of players in the running for the No. 1 overall ranking in the ESPN 100, this month we’ll break down the top candidates, not just with our own perspective but also with feedback from college coaches watching them during the evaluation period, and last but not least with some analysis from the prospects themselves. Previously, we tackled Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum, and this week it's on to Josh Jackson.

Jackson is ranked third in the ESPN 100, but he certainly was a candidate for the No. 1 ranking in the class as his summer began with a gold medal on Team USA and ended with a championship at the Las Vegas Fab 48.



College Impact
Jackson is an outstanding athlete with good size on the perimeter and the motor to maximize those abilities. That combination, along with his willingness to get on the glass, is going to allow him to play a couple of different positions at the next level. While he’ll have to learn the nuances of defensive systems like any freshman, his physical tools and motor alone will make him an immediate impact player on that end of the floor.
He can create offense from his defense, flourish in the open floor and is also a very good passer. In the halfcourt, Jackson might not yet have the ball skills or polished offensive game to carry a team, but because of everything else he brings to the table he doesn’t need to in order to make a huge impact. It was predictable that college coaches were aware of his necessary areas of growth, but what was interesting was that Jackson himself seems to have a very realistic impression about where his most immediate impact can lie in a college game.

College coaches on Jackson's style

“He’s got some dog in him [in a good way]. He’s not trying to be too pretty when he plays. He’s fine playing a junked-up style, so he’s going to get a lot done right away.”

“He’s got the best motor of the bunch and he’s the best defender, but I’m not sure how much stuff you can run for him offensively just yet.”

Jackson on his collegiate impact

“I think my role would be to just play hard, rebound and defend, and score a little bit. The thing about me is that I do some of everything, and that I do whatever it takes to win, and I think that fits in with pretty much any college in the country’s system”



NBA Potential
Jackson's physical tools translate to the highest level and the fact he’s already so impactful yet still has so much room to develop is what makes him such a special prospect. He may not be super skilled yet, but there’s no evidence to suggest he’ll have any problems developing those areas, and the college coaches we spoke to seemed to reflect that. The other area that is going to grow is simply his understanding of the game, as his production right now is a byproduct of sheer ability and terrific motor. That’s the final piece, and maybe the single most defining quality about him. Jackson is ultra-competitive, perhaps more than any other player in the class. Even he admits that can get the better of him at times, but long-term it’s bound to be more an asset than a liability, and a characteristic that many of the greats possess.

College coaches on Jackson's need to slow down

“He plays harder than any of the other top guys in the class but sometimes it can get the better of him. He just needs to slow down sometimes. [As a coach], you’d much rather have to slow him down then pick him up.”

College coaches on Jackson's skill development for the next level

“Nothing is broken [in regard to his skill level], it just hasn’t been developed yet. He just needs to learn to slow down sometimes and harness all that emotion and will to win."

“His motor is the best in the class. Sometimes it can get the better of him, but you’d rather have it like that where you have to get him to turn it down a little bit because that’s easier than getting somebody to turn it up.”

Jackson on playing in the NBA

“Definitely when I’m watching the NBA I sometimes picture myself there on the screen. I know I have a lot of things I need to get better at. I’m just going to keep working hard and trying to get better and hopefully everything works out. Things I need to work on probably are my shooting and my ball-handling.”

Jackson on his emotions getting the better of him at times

“Definitely [they do]. I hate losing more than I love winning. I’ll do anything to win. I really, really hate losing.”



The race for No. 1 in the ESPN 100
The two things that are most exciting about Jackson are his physical upside and the fact he still has so much upside. As coaches noted above, Jackson's skill set isn't broken, but probably more raw than either of the other two ESPN 100 products in contention for the No. 1 ranking. That's both good and bad. It means in the short term Jackson's offensive repertoire may not be as sophisticated as Jayson Tatum's but long-term he probably has the higher upside. The comparison with Harry Giles is harder because they don't play comparable positions, but it's not unreasonable to say that if Jackson were to realize his full potential, as his skill set and understanding of the game catch up with his physical tools and motor, that his total impact on both ends of the floor might ultimately be greater than anyone else who came out of this class.

College coaches on Jackson's ranking

"When you look at what they did for Team USA, I don't think anyone could deny that Giles was the best and that gap might be too big for anybody to close for next year, but long term, I'm not sure that kid [Jackson] knows how good he can be just yet."
 

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The Cosmos
LSU's Ben Simmons tops ranking of likely 2016 lottery picks

The 2016 NBA draft is a little more than 10 months away, and it's time to look at the players who are the front-runners to shake Adam Silver's hand in the Barclays Center next June.

I've seen the incoming freshmen plenty throughout AAU and high school and have nine of them -- including pairs of Kentucky Wildcats and California Golden Bears -- included below. There's plenty of international flavor as well, with an Australian in the top spot.

Here are the 14 players most likely to be selected in the lottery, with notes from NBA executives and college coaches.





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1. Ben Simmons
LSU Tigers
Forward
Freshman

The 6-foot-10, 235-pound Aussie has lost just one high school game since arriving in the U.S three years ago. He's versatile enough to guard multiple positions, and on the offensive end can be a point forward with his ability to handle and pass the ball. Simmons' weakness at this point is his perimeter shot, but he also hasn't had to rely on it much. He's been able to get to the basket and score around the rim with ease so far in his career.

NBA executive's take: "He has ability, size, is able to play multiple positions and has consistently done it at a high level. He enters the season as the front-runner for the No. 1 pick, but it could get interesting."





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2. Skal Labissiere
Kentucky Wildcats
Center
Freshman

He's exceptionally skilled and has size and mobility to go along with his ability to score in an abundance of ways. The native of Haiti can also make an impact on the defensive end with his shot-blocking ability. If there's a 1B to Simmons at this juncture, it's Labissiere.

NBA executive's take: "I love his potential, but I'm still not ready to anoint him as the top guy. I need to see more. I know what I'm getting from Simmons, whereas I'm still a little unsure of what to expect from Skal. Sure, he's long and can shoot it -- but is that worth the No. 1 pick? I'm not sure."

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3. Jaylen Brown
California Golden Bears
Small Forward
Freshman

He's a big, strong and athletic wing who competes on every possession. Brown is able to put it on the floor, get to the basket and finish around and above the rim. Think of Stanley Johnson with more skill and better decision-making.

College head coach's take (who was a finalist for his services): "I think he'll be an NBA All-Star. He combines a 6-7 frame with elite, athletic power and great ball skill. He should easily be a top-five pick."

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4. Stephen Zimmerman
UNLV Rebels
Center
Freshman

He's a versatile 7-foot, 240-pound freshman who decided to stay close to home and play at UNLV instead of going to any of the elite programs. Zimmerman is capable of doing just about everything -- he can score in the post, step away from the basket, run the floor well, rebound at a high level, block shots and is a terrific passer for someone his size.

UNLV head coach Dave Rice's take: "He impacts the game in so many ways. He possesses such a high basketball IQ, is a great passer and can really run. He has the ability to score and is a good rebounder. Most importantly, he is coachable and gives maximum effort on every possession and always makes the team-oriented play."

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5. Brandon Ingram
Duke Blue Devils
Guard
Freshman

Long and skilled, the North Carolina native might not put up huge numbers this year on what is likely to be a balanced Blue Devils squad, but he's a high-upside guy. He's 6-foot-9 and has the tools of a 2-guard, but he needs to put some weight onto his thin frame.

NBA executive's take: "I am not sold on his toughness and whether he can handle the physicality, but he's a guy that everyone will like. He'll get plenty of exposure at Duke, and he's so long and can also shoot it from deep. That combination alone should get him in the lottery."

Former NBA player Jerry Stackhouse's take (coached Ingram in AAU): "Although he has better ballhandling and playmaking skills at this stage of their careers, Brandon's length, shooting and scoring ability will quickly draw comparisons to Kevin Durant."

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6. Kris Dunn
Providence Friars
Guard
Junior

Dunn's return to the Friars was the biggest surprise of any decision last spring, as he likely would have been a lottery pick this past June. However, Dunn -- who possesses the physical tools NBA scouts salivate over for a point guard these days (length, athleticism, speed) -- needs to work on his perimeter shot and his decision-making.

Xavier head coach Chris Mack's take: "He's a no-brainer NBA point guard. He has the size, speed and instincts to be an instant impact player at the next level. I don't just think he makes a team. I think he becomes an All-Star."

7. Dragan Bender
Croatia
Small Forward
International

The 7-foot-1 Croatian is the consensus pick from NBA folks to be the first import selected next June. Bender, who is extremely long and skilled, played in Israel last season. He still needs to get stronger, but Bender is only 17 and stood out at the recent Eurocamp.

NBA executive's take: "He's a 7-footer who has a lot of perimeter skills. At times, he just tries to fit in. But he's got all the upside that we want. If he develops some aggressiveness, he has a chance to be a special player."





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8. Jamal Murray
Kentucky Wildcats
Guard
Freshman

The Canadian combo guard has the size to play either spot in the backcourt. He blew up in April at the Nike Hoop Summit and further enhanced his stock with a strong performance at the recent Pan Am Games. Murray was a late addition for John Calipari and should play a ton for the Wildcats this season. In fact, he could wind up being Kentucky's top scorer.

NBA executive's take: "His rising to the occasion really showed me something. It's one thing to do it in meaningless all-star games, but he wanted to take the last shot against grown men and showed he can handle it -- which is pretty special. I'm not sure he's there yet, but I think he'll wind up being a point guard in our league."

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9. Jakob Poeltl
Utah Utes
Forward
Sophomore

The 7-foot Austrian came out of nowhere last season for the Utes and likely would have been taken somewhere in the middle portion of the first round had he elected to leave after his freshman season. However, he chose to come back to Salt Lake City for another year -- not just to try and boost his draft stock, but also to be better prepared when he gets to the NBA.

Utah head coach Larry Krystkowiak's take: "He's as athletic of a 7-footer -- in terms of running and jumping -- that I can remember. He's got great hands. He catches everything. He needs a go-to counter in the post, and also will need to improve his free throw shooting and stay out of foul trouble. He's gained almost 30 pounds since he arrived on campus."

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10. Ivan Rabb
California Golden Bears
Power Forward
Freshman

At one point in time, the 6-foot-10, 220-pound Rabb was in the running for the top player in the class of 2015. Knee injuries set him back, but the long and athletic power forward has gotten back to where he was prior to the health issues. He might not put up eye-popping numbers on a loaded Cal team this season, but NBA folks will love his combination of production and potential.

Cal head coach Cuonzo Martin's take: "His size, skill and athleticism just make him a really tough cover. He's put on 11 pounds of muscle in the seven weeks he's been on campus. What he wasn't finishing at the rim before, he is now. He can step out and make shots, plus score the ball inside. More than that, he's a terrific passer and because of that probably too unselfish, honestly. And then on the other end, I've really been impressed by how he's protected the rim and his willingness to rebound. If he keeps improving at this rate, there's really no limit for Ivan."

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11. Diamond Stone
Maryland Terrapins
Center
Freshman

He's a big, strong 6-foot-11, 255-pound true post player -- and there aren't a ton of those guys around. Stone also will be a key cog in a team that is expected to be in the top 10 all year long. The Wisconsin native can score with his back to the basket and also can step out and make midrange jumpers.

NBA executive's take: "I haven't seen a high-level stud there yet. I've seen a lot of sizzle, but not a lot of steak yet. To me, he has a lot to prove this year -- but he certainly has an NBA body."

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12. Malik Newman
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Shooting Guard
Freshman

The talented and dynamic scoring guard from Mississippi decided to remain in-state and will play in Starksville. His dad, Horatio Webster, played for the Bulldogs in the 1990s. The best comparison for Newman -- who will need to work on his decision-making -- might be Tyreke Evans or Monta Ellis.

Mississippi State coach Ben Howland's take: "They are going to love Malik. He shoots it so well, he's a playmaker. When the lights come on, he gets better. He's a good passer, sees the floor and has shown great leadership. He's a gym rat."

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13. Daniel Hamilton
Connecticut Huskies
Guard
Sophomore

The youngest of the Hamilton brothers (Jordan is in the NBA and Isaac is at UCLA) deferred for much of last season. He averaged 10.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, and played in the shadow of Ryan Boatright. This UConn team has plenty of talent, but Hamilton -- a long, athletic and skilled wing -- should be the featured guy for Kevin Ollie.

NBA executive's take: "He's an enigma. I've been to games where I didn't even see or feel him. He sees the floor better than his brother [Jordan] ever did and played under control more than I thought he would. But multiple times I saw him be more than happy just to be out there."

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14. Cheick Diallo
Kansas Jayhawks
Power Forward
Freshman

He's still awaiting NCAA clearance, but Diallo can be a Ben Wallace-type of player due to his tenacity, rebounding ability and toughness. The big question is his skill level.

Kansas head coach Bill Self's take: "Cheick has as good of a motor that we've recruited. I think his skill level will surprise people."
 
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