Ranking Eastern Conference teams by roster construction
There is a widespread belief that teams led by superstars have an edge in the playoffs over teams that win with depth and balance. For example, the Atlanta Hawks won the top seed in the East with ease last year after a 60-win regular season.
Still, pretty much everyone saw the Cleveland Cavaliers as the favorites to make the Finals. Why the disconnect? Simply put, the Cavs had LeBron James and the Hawks did not. Sure enough, when the teams met in the conference finals, James led the injury-depleted Cavs to a four-game sweep.
James has long been one of a handful of elite players in the league, often on a tier of his own; any team would gladly put him atop its roster. But the NBA is made up players of differing levels of ability, and the formula for winning a championship is much more complex than just signing LeBron or someone near his level. It involves building a roster of players on varying tiers who fit together and complement the rarefied talent of a team's cornerstone players.
Players by tier, typical season
Tier Number of players
Elite of the elite 3-6
Superstar 13-20
Upper-tier starter 17-25
Starting quality 95-100
Rotation reserves ~125
Deep reserves ~110
Fringe players Everyone else
The breakdown of NBA players by tier in a typical season features around 50 very good to great players in the top three tiers, 200 solid players in the next two tiers, and then a bottom two tiers of everyone else. For our analysis, a player is assigned to a tier according to his projected individual winning percentage for next season -- the per-possession component of Wins Above Replacement (WARP). The tiers were determined by player scarcity, in which the handful of elite players rank at the top and are disproportionately valuable. For example, just five players project to be in the highest tier for the 2015-16 season: James, Stephen Curry, James Harden, Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant.
A team's tier score is based on its anticipated 10-man rotation. The average title-winning rotation during the 3-point era has been made up of one player from each of the top three tiers, three more starting-caliber players, and four legitimate second-unit players. The closer you get to that ideal depth chart, the better off you will be come playoff time. The value of each tier was determined by calculating the highest possible correlation between tier score and postseason success.
Here's the breakdown of each tier and corresponding point values:
Player tiers
Tier Winning Pct. Tier points
Elite of the Elite .739 and above 16
Superstar .646 to .739 10
Upper-Tier Starter .600 to .645 5
Starter .505 to .599 2
Second-Unit .426 to .504 1
Deep Reserve .425 or less 0
Fringe > 300 min. played 0
With that in mind, let's look at the Eastern Conference, ranked by tier score. Remember, this is not projection of the regular-season standings. That's where analysis like Kevin Pelton's pecking order comes in. Think of it like this: If two teams of a similar record meet at playoff time -- in a vacuum -- the team with the higher tier score is most likely the actual favorite.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tier score: 32
Breakdown: Elite: 1, Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 2; Starters: 1; Second-unit: 4; Deep reserves: 2
The Cavaliers are one of just five teams in the league with a tier score higher than the average for the 36 champions of the 3-point era -- and the only team in the East. That, of course, begins with James, who safely remains on the top tier of players in the league. In fact, if we really wanted to fine-tune our tiers, he might still be on a level by himself. Of the five players who rate in the elite tier, James is the only one in the East. He's not alone, of course, with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love both ranking as upper-tier starters. Only two other teams in the league feature three players from the top three tiers. The Cavs do have two projected deep reserves in their 10-man rotation, but one of those slots would be upgraded if J.R. Smith eventually re-signs. We are including the unsigned Tristan Thompson on Cleveland's depth chart, as he's a restricted free agent.
2. Indiana Pacers
Tier score: 22
Breakdown: Elite: 0, Superstars: 1; Upper-tier starters: 1; Starters: 0; Second-unit: 7; Deep reserves: 1
This sort of diversion from expectations is where the analysis is really interesting. The Pacers currently project as a .500ish team, though the reality is we are lacking key knowledge about next year's club. How will they adapt to a new playing style? Will Paul Georgebe fully recovered from his broken leg? If so, that's where the Pacers' tier score can be validated. George projects as a superstar, and there are only three such players in the conference. Indiana has another upper-tier starter in George Hill. Beyond that, the Pacers' depth chart is entirely filled out by players who rate as second-unit performers. Life in the East.
3. Toronto Raptors
Tier score: 19
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 1; Starters: 5; Second-unit: 4; Deep reserves: 0
The Raptors could be a better playoff squad next season with a depth chart containing few holes. Toronto has six players who rate as starting-caliber and four more who are legitimate second-unit performers. Only four other teams in the league feature a 10-man rotation that doesn't dip into the bottom tiers. Of course, what the Raptors really need is for someone to jump into one of the top two tiers.
4. Detroit Pistons
Tier score: 19
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 1; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 2; Second-unit: 5; Deep reserves: 2
The Pistons have some holes, but in Andre Drummond they carry a superstar forecast. Ersan Ilyasova gives Detroit another solid starter, with Reggie Jackson perhaps developing into another. For years, the Pistons have disappointed because of poor fit. Now, at least, there is a plan in place: Put Drummond at the center of everything and give him room to operate. Maybe it doesn't work, but the range of possibility has been increased. If Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and rookie Stanley Johnson take off, so will the Pistons.
5. Atlanta Hawks
Tier score: 18
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 1; Starters: 5; Second-unit: 3; Deep reserves: 1
The Hawks still project as one of the best teams in the East, but this kind of analysis underscores what the Hawks are up against. Their depth has to somehow counter Cleveland's star power.
6. Miami Heat
Tier score: 16
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 7; Second-unit: 2; Deep reserves: 1
Miami is in a similar situation to Atlanta, though many will tout the Heat's roster because of the name recognition. In reality, that does give Heat fans hope. Depth has been an issue in the past, but now that seems like an obvious strength. That will only help one or two players to perform like superstars. Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade are the obvious candidates, but Hassan Whiteside could be another.
7. Chicago Bulls
Tier score: 15
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars; 0, Upper-tier starters: 1; Starters: 3; Second-unit: 4; Deep reserves: 2
If it weren't for the hiring of Fred Hoiberg, things would seem stale in Chicago. This is a pretty old team that still is pinning a lot of hope on Derrick Rose returning to MVP form. Maybe Joakim Noah is healthier, maybe Pau Gasol continues to defy the aging process, maybe Jimmy Butler gets even better -- or maybe none of these things happen. You could see the Bulls taking a step in either direction this season, but that will be largely dependent on how well Chicago adapts to Hoiberg's system.
8. Charlotte Hornets
Tier score: 15
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 5; Second-unit: 5; Deep reserves: 0
Charlotte might be gunning for mediocrity. Still, the Hornets have built a depth chart that contains five players on the starters' tier and five more on the second unit. The big question is whether any of the Hornets' young players can leap into the upper ranks.
9. Washington Wizards
Tier score: 13
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 1; Starters: 1; Second-unit: 6; Deep reserves: 2
Washington's outlook improves with the development of three young veterans. John Wall is an upper-tier starter with the potential for even more. Bradley Beal and Otto Porter need to translate their playoff performances to the long season. Marcin Gortat is a solid starting center, but the rest of the roster is comprised of a lot of 30-something role players in decline. Nene headlines that list.
10. Milwaukee Bucks
Tier score: 11
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 3; Second-unit: 5; Deep reserves: 2
As a group, the young Bucks have no one who projects to be in any of the top three tiers. At the same time, you would not be surprised if three or four among Khris Middleton, Greg Monroe, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, Michael Carter-Williams and evenJohn Henson make that leap. The Bucks are still more potential than production, but few teams have more potential.
11. Boston Celtics
Tier score: 11
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 3; Second-unit: 5; Deep reserves: 2
The addition of David Lee gives the Celtics a third starting-caliber player, and there aren't a lot of major holes on the depth chart. Boston has no one projected for one of the top three tiers, and it's the search for that kind of player that drives Danny Ainge these days.
12. New York Knicks
Tier score: 10
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 2; Second-unit: 6; Deep reserves: 2
Carmelo Anthony's projection is just a few points shy of upper-tier status, and if he's healthy, you can easily see him getting there. Robin Lopez is also a solid starter. The rest of the roster is full of question marks.
13. Brooklyn Nets
Tier score: 10
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 1; Starters: 0; Second-unit: 5; Deep reserves: 4
The more I look at it, the more I think the Nets will be truly putrid this season. But they do have Brook Lopez.
14. Orlando Magic
Tier score: 8
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 2; Second-unit: 4; Deep reserves: 4
Like the Bucks, the Magic's short-term forecast is tepid, but the long-term outlook is bright. This year they add rookie Mario Hezonja to their collection of young players who might land in the upper tiers before too long.
15. Philadelphia 76ers
Tier score: 8
Breakdown: Elite: 0; Superstars: 0; Upper-tier starters: 0; Starters: 1; Second-unit: 6; Deep reserves: 3
The Sixers have won 19 and 18 games last season and the season before, respectively. While Jahlil Okafor could eventually be a franchise cornerstone and Nerlens Noel might be one of the league's best defenders, it's hard to imagine Philly winning many more games than they have the past two seasons. They might not even win as many.