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Skooby

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Summer-league observations: Day 5

The NBA summer league in Las Vegas is a chance to learn more about rookies getting their introductions to the league, young players developing their games and fringe players looking for opportunities. ESPN Insider's Amin Elhassan and Kevin Pelton will be watching everything and sharing their observations while keeping a close eye on the players they selected in the summer league fantasy draft for #TeamAminESPN and #TeamKPelton.







Allen Crabbe, Portland Trail Blazers
(#TeamKPelton: 20 fantasy points)

Crabbe has been one of the leading scorers in Las Vegas, and Tuesday's 15-point effort actually tied his low total of the week. Still, Crabbe impressed as a scorer, showing an in-between game off the dribble to go along with his outside shooting. Crabbe will want to tone down the playmaking that led to seven turnovers on Tuesday, but as the best shooter in Portland's rebuilt wing rotation, he's got a chance to carve out a bigger role this season.







Archie Goodwin, Phoenix Suns
(#TeamAminESPN: 13 fantasy points)

With rookie Devin Booker taking on a larger scoring role, Goodwin took a back seat Tuesday, attempting just five shots in 19 minutes. Three of them came behind the arc, with Goodwin hitting one. More of his scoring came from the free throw line, where Goodwin shot 4-of-6.







Alex Len, Phoenix Suns

Len dominated the glass Tuesday, pulling down 14 rebounds -- five ooffensive -- in 23 minutes. More surprising was Len taking a corner 3 in the flow of the offense, something that may eventually become a part of his game. For now, Len is better off using his size around the basket. He got to the free throw line seven times.







Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers
(#TeamKPelton: 24 fantasy points)

Both Okafor's strengths and weaknesses at this stage of his career were on full display. He was impressive in the post, bullying No. 4 overall pick Kristaps Porzingis and flashing his array of post moves against other defenders. Yet Okafor scored just 18 points on 18 shot attempts, in part because he went 2-of-7 from the line. He had his shot blocked five times and wasn't a major factor at the defensive end, coming up with no blocks of his own.







Kelly Oubre, Washington Wizards
(#TeamAminESPN: 23 fantasy points)

There's no doubting Oubre's athleticism, which showed up in the three steals he recorded Tuesday along with an impressive chasedown block just before halftime. The question remains how Oubre will contribute in a half-court offense. He shot 1-of-5 from 3-point range, making a pull-up attempt but missing his other efforts. And Oubre's left-hand dominance makes it difficult for him to create off the dribble against NBA opponents. He'll have to develop his weaker right hand. At 19, Oubre has time.







Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks

It was an eventful 22 minutes for Porzingis, who had nine points, three boards, three assists, three blocked shots and seven fouls. One of those seven came at the end of regulation, when Porzingis fouled Scottie Wilbekin in the act of shooting a tying 3. Wilbekin made all three free-throw attempts to force overtime. Those fouls are the downside of Porzingis' aggressiveness on D. He tries to challenge everything, which does create blocks, including one where he used his length to stone Okafor. Offensively, Porzingis continues to demonstrate impressive touch and a quick release on his jumper.







Noah Vonleh, Portland Trail Blazers

This was Vonleh's best performance after missing Portland's opening game in Las Vegas with a sprained ankle. Using his athleticism to face up and drive on slower defenders, Vonleh scored 20 points on 6-of-10 shooting and 7-of-8 from the free-throw line. He made a 3-pointer, showing off the shooting ability that could eventually be an important part of his game.







T.J. Warren, Phoenix Suns
(#TeamAminESPN: 19 fantasy points)

Warren's old-fashioned in-between game is tailor-made for summer league, and he scored 16 efficient points in 22 minutes. Intriguingly, Phoenix used Warren at times at power forward, a position he played just 23 minutes total during his rookie season according to NBA.com/Stats. At that spot, Warren's limited shooting range is less problematic and his quickness becomes a strength if he can defend bigger players.





Fantasy scoring
Transactions: #TeamKPelton replaced Justise Winslow with Shabazz Napier and added Allen Crabbe and Bobby Portis. #TeamAminESPN added Dwight Powell and T.J. Warren.

#TeamAminESPN: 87 (550 total)

Archie Goodwin, 13; Kelly Oubre, 23; Dwight Powell, 32; T.J. Warren, 19.

#TeamKPelton: 158 (519 total)

Kyle Anderson, 27; Bryce Cotton, 21; Allen Crabbe, 20; Doug McDermott, 23; Jahlil Okafor, 24; Bobby Portis, 21; Marcus Smart, 14; Justise Winslow, 5.
 

Skooby

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Joyner's Big Number: wide receivers

Quarterbacks and running backs were the subjects of Part 1 and Part 2 of the Big Number series that looks at the real statistical difference makers in fantasy football.

Part 3 of this series will cover the key numbers for wide receivers. A lot of attention is paid to wideout target volume when gauging value at this position, but the metrics illustrate there are many areas that provide even better value.

Vertical production is key in standard leagues
According to ESPN Stats & Information, qualifying wide receivers (those who scored at least one fantasy point) racked up a total of 10,540 fantasy points last season.

One might figure that dink-and-dunk passes, which account for 69 percent of all throws league-wide and 58 percent of targets directed at wide receivers, would be the area that generated the most points. In actuality, vertical passes (defined as aerials traveling 11 or more yards downfield) accounted for 53 percent of fantasy points scored among wide receivers. More than half of those points (27 percent) were generated on stretch vertical throws (defined as attempts that travel 20 or more yards downfield), so the longer the pass, the better the payoff.

A takeaway from this for fantasy owners is to be cautious when drafting aging wide receivers such as Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson. These two still generate a high volume of targets but both finished 78th or lower in vertical yards per attempt (VYPA) last season. It's possible they could see a bounce back in this area, but considering that (A) downfield speed is one of the first traits to leave a long-term veteran wide receiver and (B) they are no longer the vertical threats on their respective clubs, these two should not be highly valued in most draft rooms.

Vertical production is also key in PPR leagues
It might seem that vertical pass hegemony would not extend to point-per-reception (PPR) leagues, as the added value of receptions could more than make up for the downfield production gap.


While that might seem logical, the truth of the matter is vertical passes are also rulers in the PPR world.

Last season, vertical passes accounted for 45 percent of wide receiver scoring in PPR leagues. That is a higher scoring percentage than receptions in a one-point-per-reception environment, as catches account for only 37 percent of wide receiver scoring. Move that point-per-reception mark to only half a point and vertical throws are nearly two and a half times as valuable as receptions in a PPR league setup.

Yardage trumps touchdowns -- by a huge margin
Touchdown volume is another area that receives a lot of attention when preparing for a draft. While hitting paydirt is a valuable asset, the real value for wide receivers comes from yardage.

This holds up quite well in standard leagues, in which wide receiver fantasy points tallied on catches that did not result in a touchdown accounted for 62 percent of all points scored.

The advantage is even greater in PPR leagues, as non-scoring plays accounted for 73 percent of all wide receiver fantasy points.

What this means for fantasy owners is while the elite wide receivers on top offenses should be prioritized, do not avoid quality wide receivers on lesser offenses once that upper tier of wideouts is off the draft board. Remember, in the long run, yardage trumps touchdowns.

Stock up on receivers in leagues that value big plays

As noted in the 2015 ESPN Fantasy Football Magazine, wide receivers accounted for 50 of the 66 players in 2014 who accumulated 10 or more plays of 20-plus yards. Wideouts also accounted for a higher volume of big plays (1,133) than running backs and tight ends combined (821). Owners who are in leagues that give additional value to long gains should stockpile their roster with as many wide receivers as possible, as these are the prospects most likely to pay off with long receptions.

Don't worry about dropped passes
Don't pay much, if any, attention to a wide receiver's dropped-pass percentage.

Here's why. The average wide receiver last season tallied 100 targets and dropped a pass 3.2 percent of the time.

Compare that number to the league's best in this category, which was 0 percent. That means the best wide receiver caught three more passes than the average wide receiver would have caught. Over a 16-game season, that equates to roughly one extra catch every five games, which isn't worth much.

Even on the flip side of the equation, a high drop percentage doesn't do much harm. The league's worst rate among qualifying wide receivers last season was 7.7 percent. That equates to 4-5 additional drops over 100 targets, which is a pace of about one extra drop every 3-4 games.

Also, never forget that luck has a lot to do with dropped passes. For example, Emmanuel Sanders was one of the three wide receivers who ended last season with a 0 percent drop rate. Prior to this, his single-season drop rates had been (starting with his rookie season of 2010) 6.1 percent, 2.4 percent, 4.3 percent and 1.8 percent.

It's possible Sanders will once again post zero drops, but it seems just as likely that luck was a factor last season and that Sanders will once again end up with a drop rate somewhere along the 0-6 percent spectrum.

When fortune is this much of a factor in a metric, and when the payoff is so low even if it can be predicted accurately, it makes it an element not worth paying much attention to.
 

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Ty Lawson gives the Rockets a desperately needed playmaker

The Deal

Rockets get: Guard Ty Lawson, 2017 Denver second-round pick

Nuggets get: Guards Nick Johnson and Pablo Prigioni, forward Kostas Papanikolaou, center Joey Dorsey, 2016 Houston first-round pick (lottery protected)





Houston Rockets: B+
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I've long believed that the Rockets were a logical destination for Lawson, and I think last week's DUI arrest -- Lawson's second of 2015 -- made them the obvious choice. His evident struggles with alcohol abuse, for which Lawson is currently in rehab in Los Angeles, make him a basketball risk. And few GMs have a greater appetite for risk than Houston's Daryl Morey.


With greater risk comes the potential for greater reward, and that's what the Rockets have here. If Lawson is able to avoid further off-court missteps, this is a bargain price for a quality starter at a position of need. Houston is giving up four reserves, none of whom figured to play an important role in 2015-16, along with what will likely be a late first-round pick. In the event of a doomsday scenario in which the Rockets miss the playoffs, lottery protection means they won't surrender a valuable pick next season.

Lawson isn't a perfect fit next to James Harden. He's most valuable with the ball in his hands pushing in transition and running pick-and-rolls. According to SportVU player tracking available on NBA.com/Stats, Lawson held the ball for 7.3 minutes per game last season, the league's ninth-highest total. That's more than Houston's primary point guards, Patrick Beverley (3.9) and Jason Terry (2.0), averaged combined. Harden was the Rockets' leader in time of possession at 6.0 minutes per game, second only to LeBron James(6.1) among non-point guards.

As compared with his time in Denver, Lawson will be spending a lot more time spotting up on the perimeter. He's an OK spot-up shooter, having made about 35 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts each of the past two seasons, according toNBA.com/Stats. That's not quite as good as Beverley, who has made around 38 percent, but is decent enough to keep defenders honest.

Lawson also gives Houston a badly needed secondary playmaker. Expect to see Rockets coach Kevin McHale manage his rotation to put Lawson on the floor with the second unit, whether or not he starts games at point guard. His ability to run the break fits perfectly with the up-tempo style Houston's reserves played last season, and Lawson gives the team more creative ability when Harden is on the bench -- or getting overplayed by an aggressive defense.

Even though the Rockets aren't giving up much in terms of talent, they're still taking a risk in terms of alternative cost -- what else they could have acquired for this package of cap relief and a first-round pick. If Lawson is unable to stay on the court because of his legal troubles, Houston could regret this move. However, by this point in the summer the Rockets were unable to get anyone else nearly this talented, and Papanikolaou's guarantee date meant they couldn't necessarily wait until midseason to make a move.

Adding additional salary is relevant for Houston because the team is likely to be hard-capped next season at the luxury-tax apron $4 million above the tax line. The Rockets will be hard-capped if they use part of their non-taxpayer midlevel exception to sign second-round pick Montrezl Harrell to a contract longer than the two years permitted by the minimum-salary exception. They already committed to give most of their midlevel exception to re-sign restricted free agent K.J. McDaniels earlier Sunday, so using part of it on Harrell's contract would prevent Houston from using the smaller non-taxpayer midlevel exception and avoiding the hard cap.

With this trade, the Rockets edge slightly over the tax line, giving them about $3.5 million under the apron to fill out the remaining three spots on the roster. If Harrell gets the minimum salary as a rookie and Houston signs a 14th player for the veterans minimum, that would limit the team to offering a starting salary of about $2 million to re-sign Terry, an unrestricted free agent.

If Lawson performs as expected, the Rockets have upgraded their roster. In a loaded Western Conference, that doesn't guarantee a return trip to the conference finals. It doesn't even necessarily make Houston a favorite to win a playoff series. But Lawson's addition could make the top of the West that much more crowded.







Denver Nuggets: B+
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I'm guessing there's a sense of relief in the Nuggets' front office today. If Denver had it to do over again, the organization surely would have moved Lawson before last season's trade deadline, when his value was likely higher. But it would have been difficult for anyone to predict just how badly things would go for Lawson's relationship with the Nuggets over the last five months, and at this point a first-round pick of any kind in return is a solid save.

I don't think drafting Emmanuel Mudiay seventh meant Denver had to trade Lawson. Given that Lawson is going to be playing off the ball much of the time in Houston and Mudiay has the size to defend 2-guards, it's possible they could have played together at times. It's also possible Mudiay won't be ready to start this season. As exciting as his performance during the NBA summer league in Las Vegas was, Mudiay flashed more long-term potential than immediate production. He ended up shooting 2-of-14 from 3-point range and averaging five turnovers a game this summer.

Still, Mudiay's arrival meant a couple of things. First, it meant some conflict between the twin goals of rehabilitating Lawson's trade value and facilitating Mudiay's long-term development. Second, it gave the Nuggets an alternative if they were tired of worrying about Lawson off the court, an understandable position.

It's still not clear that Denver understands exactly where it's headed as an organization. The front office has sent mixed messages, stockpiling future first-round picks and young talent while maintaining a veteran core. The Nuggets extended the contract of 28-year-old forward Wilson Chandler last week and have reportedly been talking extension with Danilo Gallinari, who will turn 27 next month. Although neither player is past his prime yet, the two also aren't on the same timetable as Mudiay (19) and second-year players Gary Harris and Jusuf Nurkic, who will both turn 21 later this month.

What was clear was that Denver's future did not include Lawson. In addition to the pick, the Nuggets also got immediate and long-term cap relief. Prigioni's contract is only partially guaranteed for $290,000 through Monday, and he will be traded or waived, according to Yahoo! Sports. Denver can save another $4.8 million by waiving Papanikolaou, whose contract is non-guaranteed through October 4. The Nuggets have the option of trading him to another team looking for cap relief between now and then.

If Denver waives both players, the team will have about $8.3 million in cap space and be slightly below the league's salary floor (90 percent of the salary cap). The Nuggets might use some of that space to renegotiate Gallinari's contract at the same time they extend it, as they did with Chandler. That's a logical solution since even without Papanikolaou and Prigioni, Denver would have 14 guaranteed contracts along with guard Erick Green, whose contract is non-guaranteed through Aug. 1. So the Nuggets might not be doing any more shopping in free agency.

Pending a Gallinari extension, Denver is looking at $40 million in cap space next summer, when only Johnson will remain on the books from this trade. At this point, the Nuggets can't provide a compelling sales pitch to free agents. But if their young core shows promise this season, they might be able to successfully reinvest Lawson's salary in 2016.
 

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Ranking young cores: Bucks project to be class of NBA

Beginning with last month's draft and culminating with the summer leagues, the focus has been on the NBA's youngest players since the Golden State Warriors finished off the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals several weeks ago.

It's part of the annual cycle in the league and it makes for a nice balance. One team's fans get to celebrate, while those who root for the handful of other top contenders plot to overthrow the newly crowned champions. The rest are left to hope for the future, and this is the time of the year to dream of all these young pieces growing into something special.


Today we're ranking the top young cores across the league using projected three-year WARP. The error bars on these kinds of forecasts are large by nature. For one thing, young players are inherently more difficult to project than veterans. And once you get beyond the coming season, the picture changes in ways that even the best projection model can't foresee.

But we do the best we can with the data available, and try to anticipate aging curves using factors like age, experience, athletic indicators and draft slot. Nevertheless, if a player has a low statistical baseline from whence to grow a projection, it's tough to predict All-Star production.

In the end, the system is a little biased toward players with at least some positive NBA production already under their belts. Still, this is a great way to glimpse the teams strictly through the prism of the young talent that they have accumulated. That's defined here as any player likely to be on the roster who won't yet be 26 by the end of the 2015-16 regular season. For some teams, including our top-ranked club, the good news just keeps getting better. For others, well, you can always just disagree.





THE TOP TEN


1. Milwaukee Bucks (Projected three-year WARP: 92.5)
Key young players: John Henson, Greg Monroe, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Michael Carter-Williams, Jabari Parker



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The Bucks cemented this spot when they signed free-agent Monroe this summer. Monroe doesn't turn 26 until June of next season, yet he likely will be the oldest member of a Milwaukee starting lineup that will grow together over the next few years. Middleton has already established himself as one of the top 10 shooting guards in the league, and if we were re-selecting the 2013 draft, Antetokounmpo might be the first player taken (though it would probably be Utah's Rudy Gobert). And these numbers are almost certainly underselling Parker, whose rookie numbers don't give him a great baseline from which to project.






2. New Orleans Pelicans (90.6)
Key young players: Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday



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The Pellies aren't really that young of a team, with only two players likely to be on the roster who fit the criteria for these ratings. But one of them is a doozy: By the method used here to generate three-year forecasts, Davis not only tops all young players, he tops all players period, regardless of service time.






3. Utah Jazz (90.0)
Key young players: Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Trey Burke, Rodney Hood, Alec Burks, Dante Exum, Trey Lyles



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Gobert's amazing second season buoys a young Utah core that is brimming with both talent and depth. Gobert's three-year forecast ranks third among under-26 players. If Exum makes a second-year leap, it's quite possible the Jazz will top these rankings if we revisit them during the season.



4. Boston Celtics (82.7)

Key young players: Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk, R.J. Hunter, Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder, Terry Rozier



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Everybody is waiting on the Celtics to acquire or develop their next superstar, but in the meantime Danny Ainge has put together one of the deepest rosters of young talent in the league. The talent pool in Boston was made even deeper this summer with the additions of Rozier, Hunter and Jordan Mickey through the draft, and the recent acquisition of Perry Jones III via the trade market. Is there a star here? Can the crafty Ainge parlay this group into his next big three? At least he has given the Celtics plenty to work with.



5. Philadelphia 76ers (73.6)

Key young players: Robert Covington, Nerlens Noel, Richaun Holmes, Isaiah Canaan, Tony Wroten, Jahlil Okafor



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Sadly, we're leaving Joel Embiid out of the rankings. It would be difficult to generate a projection for him at this point given the likelihood of another missed season. We also aren't including premier draft-and-stash talent Dario Saric. So if you want to mentally tack on a few WARP for these omissions, then perhaps you can see Sam Hinkie's rebuilding plan as being even further down the road than it appears here.



6. Portland Trail Blazers (73.2)
Key young players: Damian Lillard, Al-Farouq Aminu, Meyers Leonard, Noah Vonleh, Maurice Harkless, C.J. McCollum



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The Blazers did a pretty nifty job of redirecting their priorities in the wake of LaMarcus Aldridge's departure, not to mention the exits of Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez. Lillard gives Portland a young star to lead a rapid rebuild, and the offseason acquisitions of Aminu, Vonleh and Harkless have helped bolster the young depth. Vonleh could turn out to be better than Aldridge someday, while McCollum, Leonard and Allen Crabbe should all benefit from expanded responsibilities.



7. Charlotte Hornets (73.2)

Key young players: Kemba Walker, Frank Kaminsky, Jeremy Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Troy Daniels, Cody Zeller



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The metrics like Kaminsky, who enters his rookie year ranking 24th among the under-26 set in three-year WARP. Walker makes the ratings by just missing the cut-off age. His three-year WARP forecast is 21.1, so he skews the numbers a bit. Still, there is room for growth in Charlotte, as Zeller and Kidd-Gilchrist both have a way to go before they hit the ceilings we thought they had when they were drafted.



8. Toronto Raptors (71.2)
Key young players: Jonas Valanciunas, Delon Wright, Bismack Biyombo, Cory Joseph, Terrence Ross, Bruno Caboclo



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The metrics love Delon Wright, though in reality he'll be in direct competition with Joseph for court time. Still, the signing of Biyombo was one of the unsung terrific moves of the summer. He joins Caboclo as young guys who won't even necessarily be asked to play big roles in the short term, but have a bunch of potential to be big producers down the road.



9. Orlando Magic (70.1)
Key young players: Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, Mario Hezonja, Evan Fournier



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Orlando's talent is well stocked at every position, which gives new coach Scott Skiles a lot of options when it comes to forging his key units going forward. We know he'll have a defensive group as one of his preferred lineups, and the Magic have the versatility and athleticism to make a major leap on that end this season.



10. Detroit Pistons (58.7)
Key young players: Andre Drummond, Stanley Johnson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Darrun Hilliard II, Reggie Bullock



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This is almost all Drummond, who ranks second behind Davis in the under-26 forecasts. If Drummond doesn't hit those superstar benchmarks the system thinks he'll get, Detroit will be in trouble. But Stan Van Gundy has reshaped the Pistons' roster to make Drummond the unchallenged centerpiece. The release of Josh Smith and the loss of Monroe in free agency puts a lot of pressure on Drummond, as Detroit got nothing in return for either player. By the way, since you're wondering, Reggie Jackson missed the cut-off age by just a few days. His three-year forecast is 11.9, which would move the Pistons up a spot or two.





THE NEXT TEN
11. Sacramento Kings (Projected three-year WARP: 54.2); 12. Indiana Pacers (52.0); 13. Washington Wizards (51.4); 14. San Antonio Spurs (49.5); 15. Minnesota Timberwolves (47.5); 16. Houston Rockets (45.4); 17. Los Angeles Lakers (41.8); 18. Chicago Bulls(41.1); 19. Oklahoma City Thunder (39.5); 20. Cleveland Cavaliers (33.4).

Indiana almost made the top 10 simply because Paul George fell on the right side of the cut-off age. Washington is the team to watch, as both John Wall and Bradley Beal are under 26, as is hard-charging Otto Porter. Given the mix of young talent and veterans on hand, if the Wizards make a spirited run next spring, the Kevin Durant situation could get really interesting. On the downside, the Timberwolves lag in our forecast to a surprising degree. Andrew Wiggins' baseline is barely replacement level. We know he's better than that and it's highly likely that he'll look a lot better this time next season.

You can say the same thing about Karl-Anthony Towns and maybe even Zach LaVine. Still, for all the lofty draft picks Minnesota has had, it's important to remember that at this point, they skew much more toward potential than production. As for the Lakers, Jordan Clarkson and D'Angelo Russell come out just fine, but they need a big step forward from Julius Randle to really start moving the WARP needle in the right direction.





THE BOTTOM TEN
21. Atlanta Hawks (Projected three-year WARP: 33.0); 22. Phoenix Suns (26.3); 23. Denver Nuggets (22.1); 24. New York Knicks (22.0); 25. Brooklyn Nets (18.0); 26. Golden State Warriors (11.9); 27. Dallas Mavericks (7.3); 28. Miami Heat (6.6); 29. Memphis Grizzlies (6.2); 30. Los Angeles Clippers (0.2).

The teams that stand out are the ones who aren't competing for championships and, thus, shouldn't be in this group. That includes Denver, New York and Brooklyn. The Nuggets and Knicks have plenty of reason to hope that Emmanuel Mudiay and Kristaps Porzingis, respectively, will outstrip their projections. The Nets' picture is truly dreary though. Their highest-ranked forecasts are for Thomas Robinson and Chris McCullough, and it's debatable that the latter should have even been included given his knee injury and probable unavailability.
 
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