Ranking young cores: Bucks project to be class of NBA
Beginning with last month's draft and culminating with the summer leagues, the focus has been on the NBA's youngest players since the
Golden State Warriors finished off the
Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals several weeks ago.
It's part of the annual cycle in the league and it makes for a nice balance. One team's fans get to celebrate, while those who root for the handful of other top contenders plot to overthrow the newly crowned champions. The rest are left to hope for the future, and this is the time of the year to dream of all these young pieces growing into something special.
Today we're ranking the top young cores across the league using projected three-year WARP. The error bars on these kinds of forecasts are large by nature. For one thing, young players are inherently more difficult to project than veterans. And once you get beyond the coming season, the picture changes in ways that even the best projection model can't foresee.
But we do the best we can with the data available, and try to anticipate aging curves using factors like age, experience, athletic indicators and draft slot. Nevertheless, if a player has a low statistical baseline from whence to grow a projection, it's tough to predict All-Star production.
In the end, the system is a little biased toward players with at least some positive NBA production already under their belts. Still, this is a great way to glimpse the teams strictly through the prism of the young talent that they have accumulated. That's defined here as any player likely to be on the roster who won't yet be 26 by the end of the 2015-16 regular season. For some teams, including our top-ranked club, the good news just keeps getting better. For others, well, you can always just disagree.
THE TOP TEN
1. Milwaukee Bucks (Projected three-year WARP: 92.5)
Key young players: John Henson,
Greg Monroe,
Khris Middleton,
Giannis Antetokounmpo,
Michael Carter-Williams,
Jabari Parker
The Bucks cemented this spot when they signed free-agent Monroe this summer. Monroe doesn't turn 26 until June of next season, yet he likely will be the oldest member of a Milwaukee starting lineup that will grow together over the next few years. Middleton has already established himself as one of the top 10 shooting guards in the league, and if we were re-selecting the 2013 draft, Antetokounmpo might be the first player taken (though it would probably be Utah's
Rudy Gobert). And these numbers are almost certainly underselling Parker, whose rookie numbers don't give him a great baseline from which to project.
2. New Orleans Pelicans (90.6)
Key young players: Anthony Davis,
Jrue Holiday
The Pellies aren't really that young of a team, with only two players likely to be on the roster who fit the criteria for these ratings. But one of them is a doozy: By the method used here to generate three-year forecasts, Davis not only tops all young players, he tops all players period, regardless of service time.
3. Utah Jazz (90.0)
Key young players: Rudy Gobert,
Derrick Favors,
Trey Burke,
Rodney Hood,
Alec Burks,
Dante Exum,
Trey Lyles
Gobert's amazing second season buoys a young Utah core that is brimming with both talent and depth. Gobert's three-year forecast ranks third among under-26 players. If Exum makes a second-year leap, it's quite possible the Jazz will top these rankings if we revisit them during the season.
4. Boston Celtics (82.7)
Key young players: Jared Sullinger,
Kelly Olynyk,
R.J. Hunter,
Marcus Smart,
Jae Crowder,
Terry Rozier
Everybody is waiting on the Celtics to acquire or develop their next superstar, but in the meantime Danny Ainge has put together one of the deepest rosters of young talent in the league. The talent pool in Boston was made even deeper this summer with the additions of Rozier, Hunter and
Jordan Mickey through the draft, and the recent acquisition of
Perry Jones III via the trade market. Is there a star here? Can the crafty Ainge parlay this group into his next big three? At least he has given the Celtics plenty to work with.
5. Philadelphia 76ers (73.6)
Key young players: Robert Covington,
Nerlens Noel,
Richaun Holmes,
Isaiah Canaan,
Tony Wroten,
Jahlil Okafor
Sadly, we're leaving
Joel Embiid out of the rankings. It would be difficult to generate a projection for him at this point given the likelihood of another missed season. We also aren't including premier draft-and-stash talent Dario Saric. So if you want to mentally tack on a few WARP for these omissions, then perhaps you can see Sam Hinkie's rebuilding plan as being even further down the road than it appears here.
6. Portland Trail Blazers (73.2)
Key young players: Damian Lillard,
Al-Farouq Aminu,
Meyers Leonard,
Noah Vonleh,
Maurice Harkless,
C.J. McCollum
The Blazers did a pretty nifty job of redirecting their priorities in the wake of
LaMarcus Aldridge's departure, not to mention the exits of
Nicolas Batum,
Wesley Matthews and
Robin Lopez. Lillard gives Portland a young star to lead a rapid rebuild, and the offseason acquisitions of Aminu, Vonleh and Harkless have helped bolster the young depth. Vonleh could turn out to be better than Aldridge someday, while McCollum, Leonard and
Allen Crabbe should all benefit from expanded responsibilities.
7. Charlotte Hornets (73.2)
Key young players: Kemba Walker, Frank Kaminsky,
Jeremy Lamb,
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist,
Troy Daniels,
Cody Zeller
The metrics like Kaminsky, who enters his rookie year ranking 24th among the under-26 set in three-year WARP. Walker makes the ratings by just missing the cut-off age. His three-year WARP forecast is 21.1, so he skews the numbers a bit. Still, there is room for growth in Charlotte, as Zeller and Kidd-Gilchrist both have a way to go before they hit the ceilings we thought they had when they were drafted.
8. Toronto Raptors (71.2)
Key young players: Jonas Valanciunas,
Delon Wright,
Bismack Biyombo,
Cory Joseph,
Terrence Ross,
Bruno Caboclo
The metrics love Delon Wright, though in reality he'll be in direct competition with Joseph for court time. Still, the signing of Biyombo was one of the unsung terrific moves of the summer. He joins Caboclo as young guys who won't even necessarily be asked to play big roles in the short term, but have a bunch of potential to be big producers down the road.
9. Orlando Magic (70.1)
Key young players: Nikola Vucevic,
Tobias Harris,
Elfrid Payton,
Victor Oladipo,
Aaron Gordon,
Mario Hezonja,
Evan Fournier
Orlando's talent is well stocked at every position, which gives new coach Scott Skiles a lot of options when it comes to forging his key units going forward. We know he'll have a defensive group as one of his preferred lineups, and the Magic have the versatility and athleticism to make a major leap on that end this season.
10. Detroit Pistons (58.7)
Key young players: Andre Drummond,
Stanley Johnson,
Spencer Dinwiddie,
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope,
Darrun Hilliard II,
Reggie Bullock
This is almost all Drummond, who ranks second behind Davis in the under-26 forecasts. If Drummond doesn't hit those superstar benchmarks the system thinks he'll get, Detroit will be in trouble. But Stan Van Gundy has reshaped the Pistons' roster to make Drummond the unchallenged centerpiece. The release of
Josh Smith and the loss of Monroe in free agency puts a lot of pressure on Drummond, as Detroit got nothing in return for either player. By the way, since you're wondering,
Reggie Jackson missed the cut-off age by just a few days. His three-year forecast is 11.9, which would move the Pistons up a spot or two.
THE NEXT TEN
11.
Sacramento Kings (Projected three-year WARP: 54.2); 12.
Indiana Pacers (52.0); 13.
Washington Wizards (51.4); 14.
San Antonio Spurs (49.5); 15.
Minnesota Timberwolves (47.5); 16.
Houston Rockets (45.4); 17.
Los Angeles Lakers (41.8); 18.
Chicago Bulls(41.1); 19.
Oklahoma City Thunder (39.5); 20. Cleveland Cavaliers (33.4).
Indiana almost made the top 10 simply because
Paul George fell on the right side of the cut-off age. Washington is the team to watch, as both
John Wall and
Bradley Beal are under 26, as is hard-charging Otto Porter. Given the mix of young talent and veterans on hand, if the Wizards make a spirited run next spring, the
Kevin Durant situation could get really interesting. On the downside, the Timberwolves lag in our forecast to a surprising degree.
Andrew Wiggins' baseline is barely replacement level. We know he's better than that and it's highly likely that he'll look a lot better this time next season.
You can say the same thing about
Karl-Anthony Towns and maybe even
Zach LaVine. Still, for all the lofty draft picks Minnesota has had, it's important to remember that at this point, they skew much more toward potential than production. As for the Lakers,
Jordan Clarkson and
D'Angelo Russell come out just fine, but they need a big step forward from
Julius Randle to really start moving the WARP needle in the right direction.
THE BOTTOM TEN
21.
Atlanta Hawks (Projected three-year WARP: 33.0); 22.
Phoenix Suns (26.3); 23.
Denver Nuggets (22.1); 24.
New York Knicks (22.0); 25.
Brooklyn Nets (18.0); 26. Golden State Warriors (11.9); 27.
Dallas Mavericks (7.3); 28.
Miami Heat (6.6); 29.
Memphis Grizzlies (6.2); 30.
Los Angeles Clippers (0.2).
The teams that stand out are the ones who aren't competing for championships and, thus, shouldn't be in this group. That includes Denver, New York and Brooklyn. The Nuggets and Knicks have plenty of reason to hope that
Emmanuel Mudiay and
Kristaps Porzingis, respectively, will outstrip their projections. The Nets' picture is truly dreary though. Their highest-ranked forecasts are for
Thomas Robinson and
Chris McCullough, and it's debatable that the latter should have even been included given his knee injury and probable unavailability.
