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ska23wildcats0009
Banned
Inside Kyle Korver's playoff slump
Pop quiz: Who's the best player not named LeBron James in the Eastern Conference finals?
Tough call. But if you're consulting ESPN's real plus-minus metric (RPM) that estimates on-court impact on both ends of the floor, it's an easy pick: Kyle Korver. At plus-5.5 RPM, the sweet-shooting All-Star registered as the most valuable player on the Atlanta Hawks roster this season, even more valuable on balance than Kyrie Irving (plus-3.1), Kevin Love (plus-3.0) or any other Hawk.
That's hard to believe if all you've watched is this season's playoffs. Korver has been rather pedestrian thus far, averaging 11.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and 35 percent shooting from downtown this postseason. Korver shooting 35 percent from deep is like Stephen Curryforgetting how to shoot free throws or James Harden losing his ability to draw contact. To wit, Korver shot 61 percent from 3-point range over a 12-game stretch earlier this season.
So, what's up with Korver? Is it just a cold streak or is something deeper going on? For the Hawks to punch their first Finals ticket in more than 50 years, they need the All-Star to play like an All-Star. Here's why he hasn't yet in the playoffs.
The gravity king
Let's back up a bit. Korver's numbers are way down this postseason, but he is still a master at keeping the defense honest. That's why even though he's not smoking defenses with 25-foot haymakers, the Hawks' offense is 6.5 points per 100 possessions better this postseason while he's on the floor.
Keeping defenses honest is an essential part of the job in today's NBA. This season, no one did it better than Korver, who possessed the highest respect rating in the NBA. What's respect rating? It's a composite metric that combines STATS LLC's gravity and distraction scores provided to ESPN Insider that quantifies how much a player pulls his defender toward him while he's off the ball. Using SportVU cameras in every arena, STATS LLC took a stab at figuring out who was the best at keeping defenses honest and Korver tops the list.
This season, Korver registered a 99.8 score, just passing Golden State's splash brothers Curry and Klay Thompson. The others near the top of the list includes some sharpshooters (Kevin Martin) and some ball-dominant lone stars (Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony). But no one stretched it quite like Korver.
'Respect Rating' leaders, 2014-15 regular season
Player Team Rating
K. Korver ATL 99.8
S. Curry GSW 99.6
K. Thompson GSW 99.4
J. Harden HOU 99.2
K. Martin MIN 98.8
K. Bryant LAL 98.6
Mo Williams CHA 98.3
D. Lillard POR 98.2
M. Ginobili SAS 98.0
C. Anthony NYK 97.7
This is where Korver makes his case for being one of the most impactful players in the game. But he's not camping out on the perimeter as much this postseason. Check out the activity heat maps provided to ESPN Insider from NBASavant.com.
The two maps look similar, but as you can see, Korver has spent more time on the elbows inside the arc rather than in the corners where he's most effective. This might be an indication that he's finding it more difficult to fight around screens in the postseason, but he should be behind the arc more. His average speed in the postseason (4.3 mph) is the same exact rate as in the regular season, so it's not true that he's idly standing around more these days.
However, he can't just be a spacer if he wants to win a championship. He needs to produce, especially in this Cleveland series. And he hasn't done that when a certain player has joined him on the court.
The Schroder effect
Here's another game for you. Guess these two players:
Player PTS REB AST FG% 3FG% PER
Player A 12.0 5.0 2.7 42.9 38.6 14.1
Player B 7.7 4.6 1.4 27.3 26.7 6.4
Pencils down. Any guesses? Trick question! It's the same player.
Both lines come from Korver's per-36-minutes averages this postseason except Player A is Korver playing without point guard Dennis Schroder and Player B is Korver playing with Schroder. Look at that disparity. Korver has morphed from a sharpshooter into a D-League player when Schroder is the one running the offense. And it's hurt the team. This postseason, the Hawks are plus-104 when Korver plays without Schroder and a minus-25 when he plays with the young point guard.
Why is that? The obvious: Schroder is young and inexperienced. The German point guard often tabbed as "Baby Rondo" is just 21 years old and toeing the playoff waters for essentially the first time. Nonetheless, Atlanta coach Mike Budenholzer has trusted Schroder with about 20 minutes per game in the postseason, including some key crunch-time opportunities as starter Jeff Teague looks on from the bench.
A closer look shows how Schroder struggles to find Korver on the wing. Schroder is the most high-volume driver in the NBA, averaging 15.1 drives per 36 minutes here in the playoffs, per NBA.com player-tracking data. That can help suck the defense into the paint area, but he's often prone to putting his head down and forcing shots.
Other times Schroder just loses his cool in the open court. Take a look at this play from Game 1 against Washington. Schroder pushes the ball in the open court and forces a pass to DeMarre Carroll with Korver in the corner. After the ball sails away, you can see Korver giving Schroder the "calm down" motion.
And here's another. Instead of taking his time and handing the ball off to the trailing Korver for the transition 3, Schroder decides to make an almost impossible pass and throws the ball away. That transition 3 is Korver's bread-and-butter.
To see this in the data, consider that Korver and Schroder have played together for 149 minutes this postseason and Korver has made just four baskets off of Schroder passes, all coming behind the arc where he's shooting 26.7 percent on Schroder feeds.
Korver has found much better luck getting looks and knocking down shots from his other teammates. According to STATS LLC's tough shot score that factors in shot distance, defender distance, speed and other shot variables, the level of difficulty of Korver's shots has been higher when Schroder is his point guard (66.6 out of 100) compared to Teague (63.0 out of 100).
Simply put, life is easier for Korver and the Hawks when Schroder is on the bench. But Budenholzer has curiously upped Schroder's playing time next to Korver this postseason from 30 percent of the sharpshooter's minutes in the regular season to 33 percent now. Cleveland hopes that continues.
Cleveland kryptonite?
Korver has struggled against Cleveland this season. He averaged just 7.8 points in four regular-season matchups, his worst output against an Eastern Conference team. The Hawks did just fine, however, winning three of the four games; the only loss came Nov. 15, way back when Anderson Varejao and Dion Waiters played big minutes for Cleveland.
To illustrate how different the Cleveland roster is now, consider that the Cavs player who has defended the most Korver shots this season is rookie Joe Harris -- who has been glued to their bench in the playoffs. J.R. Smith will likely get the assignment in this series, but it takes an entire village to account for Korver.
It's true that Korver hasn't gotten as many open looks this postseason. The average defender on his catch-and-shoots has stood just 4.4 feet away this postseason, compared to 5.5 feet in the regular season, per SportVU tracking. If he breaks free, the Hawks will have a much better shot at topping James and the Cavaliers.
But Smith might not be the Korver stopper anyway. So far this postseason, it's been his own teammate Schroder, who has kept the All-Star in check.
ska23wildcats0009
Banned
Hezonja one of draft's most versatile
WARP Projection: 1.5 (32nd among players in top 100)
Comparables: Evan Fournier (97.5), C.J. Miles (96.6), Sasha Pavlovic (96.1), Monta Ellis (96.0)
Strengths: 2P%, Shooting
Weaknesses: Usage, FTA%, TO%
The analytics perspective
After playing sparingly for FC Barcelona the past two seasons, Hezonja has grown into a key role this season at age 19, giving us enough data to project him to the NBA. While Hezonja's translated statistics suggest he can play competently right away, they don't necessarily indicate star potential.
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The biggest red flag in Hezonja's statistics is how infrequently he gets to the free throw line. Hezonja has attempted just six free throws in 417 minutes of ACB play this season. His free throw rate has been far better in Euroleague games (24 in 339 minutes), but still Hezona's projected NBA rate -- 4.2 percent of his possessions -- is the lowest among potential 2015 draftees. Generally speaking, players with such low free throw rates tend to be limited to smaller roles. The only NBA regular in 2014-15 with a free throw rate below 5 percent and an above-average usage rate was Avery Bradley of the Boston Celtics.
On the plus side, Hezonja figures to be efficient with the shots he does take. He's a strong 3-point shooter (better than 40 percent between ACB and Euroleague play) who is also highly effective inside the arc. Hezonja is making 57.5 percent of his 2-point attempts against Spanish competition. His projected NBA 2-point accuracy (47.6 percent) ranks second among perimeter players in the top 100 behind Wisconsin's Sam Dekker.
If teams are realistic about Hezonja's skill set, he has the potential to be a part of a good team in the NBA.
-- Kevin Pelton
The scouting perspective
Hezonja is the only player in this draft that is capable of winning an NBA dunk contest and an NBA 3-point contest someday.
He is an outstanding offensive player who plays with supreme confidence. Sometimes it seems he plays with too much confidence, but, as a coach, I'll take that any day of the week. And that confidence makes him a terrific prospect because it combines with his unique combination of athleticism, size and skill level for an NBA wing.
The 20-year-old Hezonja -- he turned 20 on Feb. 25 -- has been one of the best players in the world in his age group since 2011, though, until recently, there has been a lot of unfulfilled promise.
After signing with powerful FC Barcelona in 2012 as a 17-year-old, he has had to remain patient playing very little behind some of the best players in Europe. That has changed this year as his playing opportunities have grown.
At 6-foot-8, Hezonja possesses that coveted combination of athleticism, offensive skill level and age, which has attracted the interest of NBA teams. Recently he became only the fourth player in ACB history to shoot 8-for-8 behind the 3-point line in a game. In fact, he is currently shooting better than 40 percent behind the arc in both the ACB and in the Euroleague.
Hezonja will have little problem fitting in to the NBA athletically. At 6-8, he has the positional size for a shooting guard or a small forward and handles the ball well enough to create his own shot. But while he does not finish at the rim well, fearlessness is not the issue. He also has a tendency to force tough shots because of his extreme confidence.
Hezonja has, in effect, already been a pro for a number of years playing with professional teammates and receiving professional coaching, so his adjustment to the NBA will be easier than most college players. For example, he has been schooled in screen-and-roll basketball and already possesses good acumen for a 6-8 player who can handle the ball like a point forward.
Hezonja does not always do his work early on the defensive end. He gets caught flatfooted often in help-side situations, is a poor closeout defender and can be posted by physical wings. But when he is engaged, he has very good defensive instincts. He reads passing lanes well and often moves to where an offensive player is leading his teammate with a pass and comes up with the steal.
Maturity has been an issue at times for Hezonja but much of that can be attributed to his youth and a competitive nature that should eventually serve him well. He definitely plays with a chip on his shoulder. If he comes to the NBA with more questions than answers and is willing to learn what he does not know, the chances for a smooth adjustment will be easier. But he is a major talent.
-- Fran Fraschilla
The front-office perspective
Hezonja spent much of 2014 ranked as a lottery pick despite the fact that he rarely played for his team, FC Barcelona. However as the 2014 NBA draft neared, scouts began to get cold feet and ultimately Hezonja decided he was better off returning to Spain for another season.
It paid off. Big time. Hezonja finally started seeing regular minutes on Barcelona and scouts got a much deeper look at who he was as a prospect. He has been firmly in our top 10 all year and many scouts believe he might be the best wing talent in the draft.
While his numbers this year are modest: 8.4 PPG in 16 MPG -- what scouts see is an athletic wing who can stroke it from 3-point territory as well as put the ball on the floor and finish at the rim. When he gets regular minutes, he's aggressive and plays in attack mode. And his experience playing for an elite team in Europe means he has faced tougher competition night in and night out than any college player on our board.
"I really love him," one NBA scout told ESPN. "I love Winslow too. But I really think if this kid was in college we'd all be going crazy for him. He's tough, he's athletic, he shoots the s--- out of it. And the kid just knows how to play. He's going to be really, really good in the NBA. He's the first wing on my board."
Most teams have Duke's Justise Winslow ranked ahead of Hezonja, but look for Hezonja to go somewhere between the sixth and 10th pick.
-- Chad Ford
ska23wildcats0009
Banned
954UAlreadyknow
All Star
#NBAFrontOffice: Is the Pelicans' job better than the Bulls'?
Tom Penn: At ownership level, the New Orleans Pelicans have real uncertainty because Tom Benson's ailing health and a feud among his heirs -- between his wife and granddaughter -- over who controls the Saints and Pelicans. Right now, Saints GM Mickey Loomis, a renowned NFL executive, is also speaking on behalf of the NBA franchise, which is unusual.
But this is a unique situation. The Pelicans are going through the growing pains and maturation of what eventually should be a great team, with a brilliant franchise star in Anthony Davis. They made the Western Conference playoffs this season, which was a remarkable success. They surprised everyone, however, by firing coach Monty Williams. So what we have is a talented team in turmoil.
Let's take over the Pelicans right after the firing. We'll discuss whether it was the right move and what they have to do going forward and evaluate just how good that coaching job really is.
1. Did the Pelicans need to fire Monty Williams?
Penn: If you look at Williams' body of work, he was hugely successful in the West. Nobody had the Pelicans making it to the playoffs this season, especially as competitive as the West was. When you factor in how he taught guys to win, how to be pros, how to play and how to play together, Williams had done the job, checked all those boxes. However, that's what Mickey Loomis and Dell Demps decided. Now we take over. Kevin, I know you and I don't agree on this point, so I'm open to everyone else's opinion on how good of a job Monty did.
Kevin Pelton: I think my biggest criticism is that they were not able to build a competitive defense. They were 22nd this season and among the bottom 10 each of the past three seasons, and you're not going to achieve your ultimate goals with that type of defense. From a front-office perspective, they went out and added Omer Asik last summer to try to rectify these issues, giving Davis, a traditional center, a good rim protector to play alongside him, and it really didn't help them at all. They still allowed the most attempts per game at the rim in the league, one of the highest percentages in terms of opponents' shooting at the rim. And too often, Davis was stuck out on the perimeter, where his shot blocking wasn't making a difference defensively. That to me is the No. 1 reason Williams lost his job, and where we have to look to upgrade.
David Thorpe: If you watched them, game in, game out, Williams was fine. But we should probably expect more than just fine. We've talked about this before: There are just a few coaches who really can press buttons at an elite level, and there are a few who are disastrous no matter what the roster. The rest are all about the same, give or take. That's what the evidence suggests overwhelmingly. And I think Williams was squarely in that middle ground: He wasn't a special X's and O's guy, he's not an innovator. In fact, some probably would say he's below average in terms of defensive schemes but also his teaching points. I think that's the one thing a front office has to ask itself: Are you going to bring in someone who's not just better immediately, but also in the long term? I think making the playoffs is definitely a worthwhile thing to celebrate to some degree. They have a good roster, so they should have been good. They just weren't very good.
Chad Ford: The team made the playoffs in a very competitive West despite struggling with a bunch of injuries. Williams didn't put the roster together, but he did a lot of good things with it. Clearly the players were in his corner, too. I think he wasn't able to communicate with Demps, but his reluctance to shoot 3s and the defensive deficiencies Kevin raised doomed him.
Amin Elhassan: I am kind of torn on this, because on the one hand, I agree Williams could've achieved more, and there's no way a team that has Asik and Davis as their starting bigs should be a bottom-10 defensive team in this league. But on the other hand, I agree with Tom -- at the end of the day, they made the playoffs. They didn't back their way in -- they beat the San Antonio Spurs in the regular-season finale to make the playoffs. I think Williams deserves credit for that, especially because there was this feeling of an ultimatum given to Williams: "Make the playoffs, or else."
Penn: I just think you guys are expecting too much, too fast in the maturation of this team. I see the defensive inefficiencies, but I believe that you build offense first and defense then follows, particularly with a young team. In my experience, that's just the way it works. The one thing about Williams is he is not going to wear out his welcome, he's not going to grind everyone to the ground the way others will. He's a great relationship guy, he's got high emotional IQ, and the better the team gets it, the better he gets at handling the relationships. He should have other opportunities.
2. Tom Thibodeau could be out in Chicago. Is the Pelicans' job a better one than the Bulls'?
Thorpe: Davis is 22, but the rest of his teammates are in their peak years, so this is not that young of a team. We just haven't been together a long time. Tyreke Evans is the youngest of our other core guys, and he's 25. We're ready to really gallop, and we have the No. 2 player in the world.
Elhassan: Agreed. The chance to coach Anthony Davis is huge. He is still at the beginning of his career, but more importantly, he's really starting to figure things out. This is a golden time that might get a coach's name retired in the rafters of our building one day, just because you're in the right place at the right time. I would definitely go with us over the Bulls. Of course, our ownership situation is a little uncertain right now, but I don't get the feeling that spending money is an issue. The Bulls try to cut corners and costs. It's not just a Thibodeau issue; I think there are a lot of things going on in that organization, and I'm not sure ownership would be willing to listen. So if I'm a coach, that's another reason to come to us rather than Chicago.
Penn: Davis is the No. 1 player, and he's wired like Tim Duncan: just a sweetheart of a guy, incredibly competitive and bright, and he's here for the long haul. He's committed. So that's as good as it gets for a coach in having a star player. But I can see why a coach might choose Chicago over New Orleans. There's an obvious legacy and history in Chicago, but also, the roster is built to win now, with Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler. Jerry Reinsdorf has been the gold standard in sports franchise ownership. He just flat-out gets it. He invented the modern franchise in two different sports. John Paxson and Gar Forman are really highly regarded in their own right. They're good guys who you want to work with and be on the same page and partners with. So I love that job. But what we could offer -- I really like it because of Davis and his chance to do something special.
Ford: Davis, by himself, almost makes our job more valuable than the Bulls' job. Davis is going to be the best player in the league for the next five or six years.
Pelton: I think one thing a candidate would have to consider is what type of coach he is. If he's a defensive-minded coach, he's not going into Chicago thinking he'll be better at that than Thibodeau. That's not possible. But you can have a significant impact at the defensive end here in New Orleans.
Penn: OK, so who do we have as potential candidates?
Thorpe: This probably is a little off the wall, but I'd love for us to look at Spurs assistant Ettore Messina. I think he's extremely knowledgeable in the NBA now, doesn't need to grow with the team (he's 55), and he's won multiple Euroleague championships. He's been with Gregg Popovich for a long time. I love how Tom talked about Davis being wired like Duncan -- I really could see Messina having a similar relationship with Davis and bringing out just the very best in him. Plus, he brings with him everything the Spurs do. The Spurs are arguably the most innovative team in sports -- certainly in the NBA -- and Messina has been right there to witness it firsthand. We get all that information at a time when the Spurs might be retooling over these next few seasons just as Davis rises to prominence. I think Messina would be an outstanding guy to strongly consider.
Elhassan: I like Messina as well, Coach. I've got a list of guys here. I think Mark Jackson would actually be a good fit here, too.
Penn: No, thank you.
Thorpe: I would salute Alvin Gentry, but not Jackson.
Elhassan: OK, OK, hold on. Gentry's on the list, as well. The reason why I say Jackson is because I look at the defensive turnaround that they had in Golden State, and Jackson was responsible for that. He was responsible for changing that culture and identity and putting in a lot of the schemes over the past couple of years that made them a top-5 defense. I think that offensively, he's got a lot of growing to do. But hopefully he learned from his time in Golden State. Worst-case scenario, you know at the very least the best player's going to get the ball. That's one of my biggest gripes about watching us over the last couple of seasons -- the number of times Davis runs up and down the floor and doesn't touch the ball. That's got to change. He's got to be a much more featured part of the offense. It's turned into a broken record, but Gentry probably is the most qualified person who's not the head coach of an NBA team.
Ford: We keep hearing Thibs, but would we want another headstrong NBA coach that is hell-bent on doing things his way? Thibs would be great, but I really like the idea of Gentry in New Orleans. The thing about Gentry is that he's flexible. He adapts his offense and defense to the personnel he has. Thibs tries to bend every player and team to his system. But Gentry's flexibility is a strength on a roster like this.
Thorpe: I like Gentry for the Bulls' job.
Elhassan: The third name I have is Mike Malone, who I thought got a raw deal in Sacramento. I think he's a guy who will bring us a defensive identity. He'd be a great fit. I thought he was doing a good job with that Kings roster. He had them playing better defense than they played in seven seasons. And he was an assistant coach for us three or four years ago.
Pelton: Actually, I think Jackson makes a lot of sense to me, along the same lines of why I like Scott Brooks, who's not known as a great defensive coach but took OKC to defensive top-10 finishes on a fairly regular basis. What I like about him for us is that he's worked with a guy in Serge Ibaka who's very similar to Davis defensively. He's an incredible shot-blocker and also has the athleticism to play outside. But the big difference between how Ibaka has been used in OKC's defense and how Davis has been used in New Orleans' defense is Ibaka has been contesting a lot more shots at the rim than Davis has. And that's exactly what you need to do defensively to help this Pelicans team take the next step.
Penn: I would want to go with a proven commodity here. I like Brooks, I like Gentry. Another name that we should really look hard at is Nate McMillan. He has won north of 300 games and he's an outstanding coach, with multiple 50-win seasons. I know him personally because of our time together at Portland. He's a great piece of a cohesive organization and is willing to work as a partner alongside management.
3. Any roster moves we need to make?
Pelton: I see us having a pretty quiet offseason just re-signing Asik and generally bringing back the same core, and I think one of the reasons you probably would do that is because you want to see what kind of impact a new coach can have with this personnel before you go out and start making moves. Obviously if a really good opportunity to move either Jrue Holiday or Evans for a guy who's a more complementary wing player comes up, then I think you look at that, but otherwise I would like to give this group 50 games under a new coach before I make a change.
Ford: We've got to re-sign Asik and then upgrade the wings. Eric Gordon is in the last year of his contract. He played really well this season, shooting 45 percent from 3 when he was healthy, but his long-term injury track record and porous defense gives me pause. Evans led the team in assists, but his lack of shooting ability and tendency to pound the ball aren't great fits.
Thorpe: I think Asik is a guy who could be a much better player with better coaching. To me, he's been a big disappointment on the offensive end, especially. Defensively, I see it more of a scheme thing and how it's being executed. We know he should be an elite-level defender/rebounder; he's a horrid offensive player in a way that DeAndre Jordan used to be, but isn't anymore. Asik can be better, and I think the right coach can definitely impact that. And we see examples of that all over the place when a better coach comes in and you see players improve. We need more from our bench, but generally speaking, let's coach up these guys, let's see what we have with a new system and strategy and then we can tweak.
And another thing: Those players are right in their primes -- 25-28 years old. Tom, you'll be able to move them. If a guy is playing well, even if he's not the best long-term fit, it'll increase his trade value. Then you can move him for a player you think fits better for what we're trying to do. You want to surround Davis with great shooters.
ska23wildcats0009
Banned
With the draft order finally determined, it's time to look at who each of the teams that participated in the NBA draft lottery should pick.
For this exercise, I've gone through and offered my pick for each spot. Then, I consulted with a handful of high-ranking NBA executives to see what they thought of my picks -- and what they might do differently:
All comments are from current NBA executives who wished to remain anonymous
1. Karl-Anthony Towns, C
Minnesota Timberwolves
College: Kentucky | 6-foot-11, 250 pounds
Analysis: Towns has the length up front the Wolves need and can do far more away from the basket than he showed this past season at Kentucky. Towns blocked shots and scored in the paint, but he's also able to step away from the basket and make shots. While Jahlil Okafor is a back-to-the-basket guy, Towns is far more versatile and would also upgrade Minnesota's defense. Not to mention that Okafor and Nikola Pekovic wouldn't work well on the court together.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Towns (5)
"The Wolves have to take him because he can impact the game on both ends of the floor."
"He makes more sense than Okafor, although it's not an easy call."
2. Jahlil Okafor, C
Los Angeles Lakers
College: Duke | 6-foot-11, 275 pounds
Analysis: The Lakers are celebrating after getting the second overall pick. Now Kobe Bryant has a ready-made big man who can help draw some attention in the post. Okafor is skilled and can impact an NBA game immediately with his size, skill and high basketball IQ. With a healthy Bryant, and after adding both Julius Randle and Okafor up front, the Lakers could be back in the playoffs next season.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Okafor (5)
"He's too good not to take. I know the fit might be a question, but they can't pass on Okafor."
"Their bigs [stink]. I don't see how they could take a guard. This is an easy one."
3. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG
Philadelphia 76ers
College: China | 6-foot-5, 196 pounds
Analysis: It'll be a difficult choice for Sam Hinkie between the top two point guards: D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay. Russell has tremendous court vision, but Mudiay is the new-age point guard -- he's big, strong and athletic. Russell is the superior shooter and passer, but Mudiay has the higher upside -- and would be fun to watch with Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel up front.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Mudiay (3), D'Angelo Russell (2)
"Mudiay is a wild card. It's going to come down to who they like more. For me, I'd go with Russell. I'm more familiar with him and really like him because he can do everything."
"I think they wind up taking Russell, even though I think most teams would take Mudiay here. We'd take Mudiay -- but I think they go with Russell."
4. D'Angelo Russell, PG
New York Knicks
College: Ohio State | 6-foot-5, 176 pounds
Analysis: Phil Jackson and the Knicks are still licking their wounds after falling to No. 4, but Russell will make them feel better. He has such a tremendous feel for the game, and while just an above-average athlete, he finds a way to score in a variety of ways while also possessing tremendous court vision and passing ability. Carmelo Anthony will love him.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Russell (4), Kristaps Porzingis (1)
"I'd take Porzingis, but I'm also not in New York -- where they will probably get crucified for taking him."
"Russell makes the most sense for New York, and I think he works well in the triangle."
5. Kristaps Porzingis, PF
Orlando Magic
College: Latvia | 6-foot-11, 220 pounds
Analysis: The Magic will likely choose between athletic wing Justise Winslow and the skilled 7-foot-1 Porzingis. General manager Rob Henningan already has a bunch of athletes who aren't considered great shooters (Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo). He could use a guy who can make shots, and Porzingis has as much upside as anyone in this draft. He's 19, can score from deep and is also a good athlete.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Porzingis (2), Justise Winslow (2), Willie Cauley-Stein (1)
"It makes the most sense to take Cauley-Stein. You can play him and (Nikola) Vucevic together."
"I think you're right with Porzingis, especially for what they need. Justise Winslow isn't a great shooter, and I don't know how you add another perimeter non-shooter."
6. Frank Kaminsky, C
Sacramento Kings
College: Wisconsin | 7-foot, 234 pounds
Analysis: I know it's dangerous to draft for need, but the Kings sorely need a power forward who has the skill to play alongside DeMarcus Cousins. Kaminsky can do just that, as he's a guy who can stretch the defense with his ability to make shots from beyond the arc. This might be higher than most have Kaminsky, but the guy has made huge strides throughout his college career and with the right system, he can be an effective NBA player.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Willie Cauley-Stein (3), Winslow (2)
"I think it's high for Kaminsky, but they need stability. Look at what he did last season, and it's not crazy by any means. Personally, I'd go with Cauley-Stein here. He'd help make up for DeMarcus Cousins' defensive deficiencies."
"No. I don't think so with Kaminsky here. It sounds too high to me. It's too early. The name will intrigue and Vlade [Divac] will love his skill -- in theory. But I don't see it."
7. Justise Winslow, SF
Denver Nuggets
College: Duke | 6-foot-6, 222 pounds
Analysis: The Nuggets need a young wing, and while Winslow isn't a knock-down shooter, he did wind up shooting 42 percent from 3 as a freshman at Duke. He'll also give Denver toughness and a lock-down defender.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Winslow (4), Mario Hezonja (1)
"You've got to take Winslow. That's a freakin' steal."
"Denver takes him in a heartbeat if he is still there at No. 7."
8. Mario Hezonja, SF
Detroit Pistons
College: Croatia | 6-foot-7, 200 pounds
Analysis: The Pistons will build around Andre Drummond, and the question remains whether Stan Van Gundy will keep Reggie Jackson and go with a small backcourt of Brandon Jennings and Jackson -- or move Jennings. Detroit will likely need someone to replace Greg Monroe, and the Pistons also need a wing with size. The easy pick here is Hezonja -- who is athletic and can also shoot it.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Hezonja (2) Stanley Johnson (2), Cauley-Stein (1)
"They need size at the wing spot. I think it comes down to Hezonja or Stanley Johnson."
"Hezonja is talented enough to be a top five or six pick. He shoots it well, he's really athletic, can handle and creates shots for himself. This would be a good get for Detroit."
9. Willie Cauley-Stein, C
Charlotte Hornets
College: Kentucky | 7-foot, 240 pounds
Analysis: The Hornets also could use a wing who can shoot, but if Hezonja is off the board they might have no choice but to upgrade their perimeter defense. Al Jefferson is subpar on the defensive end, and WCS gives Charlotte a shot-blocker who can run the floor. He's a game-changer on the defensive side of the ball.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Cauley-Stein (3), Kelly Oubre (1), Devin Booker (1)
"If Hezonja isn't there, I'd go with Cauley-Stein. He has one skill that translates. Defense."
"Charlotte could use Cauley-Stein, but I think they need a shooter even more. Booker is the best pure shooter in the draft."
10. Sam Dekker, SF
Miami Heat
College: Wisconsin | 6-foot-9, 230 pounds
Analysis: The Heat need fresh, young legs -- and Dekker provides them with that and also a guy who has proven that he isn't afraid of the moment. He's a long, athletic small forward who could eventually replace Loul Deng. Dekker's perimeter shot needs to become more consistent, but he showed he can make them in the NCAA tourney.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Myles Turner (2), Dekker (1), Kelly Oubre (1), Stanley Johnson (1)
"I like Dekker's upside -- and I think he fits in Miami. They have Hassan Whiteside and Chris Bosh, but he can play with either of those guys."
"This is a tough call, and I think it's where the draft starts to drop a bit. I'd grab the best player available if I were the Heat, and I think it's going to be Oubre."
11. Myles Turner, PF
Indiana Pacers
College: Texas | 7-foot, 240 pounds
Analysis: The Pacers need an upgrade along the front line, and Turner's a guy -- when he gains more strength in his lower body -- who would give Indiana someone who can step out and make shots and also someone who can provide a presence on the defensive end.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Myles Turner (2), Cameron Payne (2), Trey Lyles (1)
"David West is getting older, and Roy Hibbert is a shell of himself. The Pacers need to go big, and Turner is a good choice."
"Indiana needs a lot, and I could see them trying to upgrade at the point guard position. Cameron Payne is the best point guard on the board."
12. Stanley Johnson, SF
Utah Jazz
College: Arizona | 6-foot-7, 237 pounds
Analysis: It's tough to determine the biggest need for the Jazz. They have a front line of Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert. Alec Burks and Rodney Hood are solid wings, and it's still unclear whether the point guard duo of Dante Exum and Trey Burke will be enough to get Utah to the next level. Johnson is a power wing who struggled at times as a freshman but could be a huge piece in the future.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Kelly Oubre (2), Stanley Johnson (1), Cameron Payne (1), Trey Lyles (1)
"Oubre has huge upside. The sky's the limit for this kid. He didn't have a great year, but his talent is undeniable. That's who I'd go with here."
"I think Utah swings at Turner if he's around because he is a shooting big, but I could see them going with Stanley here -- if he's still on the board."
13. Kelly Oubre, SF
Phoenix Suns
College: Kansas | 6-foot-7, 204 pounds
Analysis: The Suns need an upgrade at the 3 (see: Marcus Morris), and while Oubre is a work in progress, he has high upside. Oubre struggled out of the gates at Kansas as a freshman but made improvements. If he can become a consistent shooter, he could be a high-level guy in the NBA.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Kelly Oubre (3), Jerian Grant (1), Bobby Portis (1)
"The Suns need size in the backcourt. They have [Eric] Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. Those two are tiny. Adding Jerian Grant would be huge. They need a guard with some size."
14. Jerian Grant, PG
Oklahoma City Thunder
College: Notre Dame | 6-5, 185 pounds
Analysis: OKC doesn't necessarily need anything besides health, and the Thunder should return just about everyone from this season's squad. Grant is a guy who can play both backcourt spots if needed -- and could be an upgrade at the 2-guard spot.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Devin Booker (2), Jerian Grant (2), Justin Anderson (1)
"Grant fits them, and he can play with Russell Westbrook really well."
"Booker is the best on the board. Plus, they could use another shooter."
For this exercise, I've gone through and offered my pick for each spot. Then, I consulted with a handful of high-ranking NBA executives to see what they thought of my picks -- and what they might do differently:
All comments are from current NBA executives who wished to remain anonymous
1. Karl-Anthony Towns, C
Minnesota Timberwolves
College: Kentucky | 6-foot-11, 250 pounds
Analysis: Towns has the length up front the Wolves need and can do far more away from the basket than he showed this past season at Kentucky. Towns blocked shots and scored in the paint, but he's also able to step away from the basket and make shots. While Jahlil Okafor is a back-to-the-basket guy, Towns is far more versatile and would also upgrade Minnesota's defense. Not to mention that Okafor and Nikola Pekovic wouldn't work well on the court together.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Towns (5)
"The Wolves have to take him because he can impact the game on both ends of the floor."
"He makes more sense than Okafor, although it's not an easy call."
2. Jahlil Okafor, C
Los Angeles Lakers
College: Duke | 6-foot-11, 275 pounds
Analysis: The Lakers are celebrating after getting the second overall pick. Now Kobe Bryant has a ready-made big man who can help draw some attention in the post. Okafor is skilled and can impact an NBA game immediately with his size, skill and high basketball IQ. With a healthy Bryant, and after adding both Julius Randle and Okafor up front, the Lakers could be back in the playoffs next season.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Okafor (5)
"He's too good not to take. I know the fit might be a question, but they can't pass on Okafor."
"Their bigs [stink]. I don't see how they could take a guard. This is an easy one."
3. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG
Philadelphia 76ers
College: China | 6-foot-5, 196 pounds
Analysis: It'll be a difficult choice for Sam Hinkie between the top two point guards: D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay. Russell has tremendous court vision, but Mudiay is the new-age point guard -- he's big, strong and athletic. Russell is the superior shooter and passer, but Mudiay has the higher upside -- and would be fun to watch with Joel Embiid and Nerlens Noel up front.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Mudiay (3), D'Angelo Russell (2)
"Mudiay is a wild card. It's going to come down to who they like more. For me, I'd go with Russell. I'm more familiar with him and really like him because he can do everything."
"I think they wind up taking Russell, even though I think most teams would take Mudiay here. We'd take Mudiay -- but I think they go with Russell."
4. D'Angelo Russell, PG
New York Knicks
College: Ohio State | 6-foot-5, 176 pounds
Analysis: Phil Jackson and the Knicks are still licking their wounds after falling to No. 4, but Russell will make them feel better. He has such a tremendous feel for the game, and while just an above-average athlete, he finds a way to score in a variety of ways while also possessing tremendous court vision and passing ability. Carmelo Anthony will love him.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Russell (4), Kristaps Porzingis (1)
"I'd take Porzingis, but I'm also not in New York -- where they will probably get crucified for taking him."
"Russell makes the most sense for New York, and I think he works well in the triangle."
5. Kristaps Porzingis, PF
Orlando Magic
College: Latvia | 6-foot-11, 220 pounds
Analysis: The Magic will likely choose between athletic wing Justise Winslow and the skilled 7-foot-1 Porzingis. General manager Rob Henningan already has a bunch of athletes who aren't considered great shooters (Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo). He could use a guy who can make shots, and Porzingis has as much upside as anyone in this draft. He's 19, can score from deep and is also a good athlete.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Porzingis (2), Justise Winslow (2), Willie Cauley-Stein (1)
"It makes the most sense to take Cauley-Stein. You can play him and (Nikola) Vucevic together."
"I think you're right with Porzingis, especially for what they need. Justise Winslow isn't a great shooter, and I don't know how you add another perimeter non-shooter."
6. Frank Kaminsky, C
Sacramento Kings
College: Wisconsin | 7-foot, 234 pounds
Analysis: I know it's dangerous to draft for need, but the Kings sorely need a power forward who has the skill to play alongside DeMarcus Cousins. Kaminsky can do just that, as he's a guy who can stretch the defense with his ability to make shots from beyond the arc. This might be higher than most have Kaminsky, but the guy has made huge strides throughout his college career and with the right system, he can be an effective NBA player.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Willie Cauley-Stein (3), Winslow (2)
"I think it's high for Kaminsky, but they need stability. Look at what he did last season, and it's not crazy by any means. Personally, I'd go with Cauley-Stein here. He'd help make up for DeMarcus Cousins' defensive deficiencies."
"No. I don't think so with Kaminsky here. It sounds too high to me. It's too early. The name will intrigue and Vlade [Divac] will love his skill -- in theory. But I don't see it."
7. Justise Winslow, SF
Denver Nuggets
College: Duke | 6-foot-6, 222 pounds
Analysis: The Nuggets need a young wing, and while Winslow isn't a knock-down shooter, he did wind up shooting 42 percent from 3 as a freshman at Duke. He'll also give Denver toughness and a lock-down defender.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Winslow (4), Mario Hezonja (1)
"You've got to take Winslow. That's a freakin' steal."
"Denver takes him in a heartbeat if he is still there at No. 7."
8. Mario Hezonja, SF
Detroit Pistons
College: Croatia | 6-foot-7, 200 pounds
Analysis: The Pistons will build around Andre Drummond, and the question remains whether Stan Van Gundy will keep Reggie Jackson and go with a small backcourt of Brandon Jennings and Jackson -- or move Jennings. Detroit will likely need someone to replace Greg Monroe, and the Pistons also need a wing with size. The easy pick here is Hezonja -- who is athletic and can also shoot it.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Hezonja (2) Stanley Johnson (2), Cauley-Stein (1)
"They need size at the wing spot. I think it comes down to Hezonja or Stanley Johnson."
"Hezonja is talented enough to be a top five or six pick. He shoots it well, he's really athletic, can handle and creates shots for himself. This would be a good get for Detroit."
9. Willie Cauley-Stein, C
Charlotte Hornets
College: Kentucky | 7-foot, 240 pounds
Analysis: The Hornets also could use a wing who can shoot, but if Hezonja is off the board they might have no choice but to upgrade their perimeter defense. Al Jefferson is subpar on the defensive end, and WCS gives Charlotte a shot-blocker who can run the floor. He's a game-changer on the defensive side of the ball.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Cauley-Stein (3), Kelly Oubre (1), Devin Booker (1)
"If Hezonja isn't there, I'd go with Cauley-Stein. He has one skill that translates. Defense."
"Charlotte could use Cauley-Stein, but I think they need a shooter even more. Booker is the best pure shooter in the draft."
10. Sam Dekker, SF
Miami Heat
College: Wisconsin | 6-foot-9, 230 pounds
Analysis: The Heat need fresh, young legs -- and Dekker provides them with that and also a guy who has proven that he isn't afraid of the moment. He's a long, athletic small forward who could eventually replace Loul Deng. Dekker's perimeter shot needs to become more consistent, but he showed he can make them in the NCAA tourney.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Myles Turner (2), Dekker (1), Kelly Oubre (1), Stanley Johnson (1)
"I like Dekker's upside -- and I think he fits in Miami. They have Hassan Whiteside and Chris Bosh, but he can play with either of those guys."
"This is a tough call, and I think it's where the draft starts to drop a bit. I'd grab the best player available if I were the Heat, and I think it's going to be Oubre."
11. Myles Turner, PF
Indiana Pacers
College: Texas | 7-foot, 240 pounds
Analysis: The Pacers need an upgrade along the front line, and Turner's a guy -- when he gains more strength in his lower body -- who would give Indiana someone who can step out and make shots and also someone who can provide a presence on the defensive end.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Myles Turner (2), Cameron Payne (2), Trey Lyles (1)
"David West is getting older, and Roy Hibbert is a shell of himself. The Pacers need to go big, and Turner is a good choice."
"Indiana needs a lot, and I could see them trying to upgrade at the point guard position. Cameron Payne is the best point guard on the board."
12. Stanley Johnson, SF
Utah Jazz
College: Arizona | 6-foot-7, 237 pounds
Analysis: It's tough to determine the biggest need for the Jazz. They have a front line of Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert. Alec Burks and Rodney Hood are solid wings, and it's still unclear whether the point guard duo of Dante Exum and Trey Burke will be enough to get Utah to the next level. Johnson is a power wing who struggled at times as a freshman but could be a huge piece in the future.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Kelly Oubre (2), Stanley Johnson (1), Cameron Payne (1), Trey Lyles (1)
"Oubre has huge upside. The sky's the limit for this kid. He didn't have a great year, but his talent is undeniable. That's who I'd go with here."
"I think Utah swings at Turner if he's around because he is a shooting big, but I could see them going with Stanley here -- if he's still on the board."
13. Kelly Oubre, SF
Phoenix Suns
College: Kansas | 6-foot-7, 204 pounds
Analysis: The Suns need an upgrade at the 3 (see: Marcus Morris), and while Oubre is a work in progress, he has high upside. Oubre struggled out of the gates at Kansas as a freshman but made improvements. If he can become a consistent shooter, he could be a high-level guy in the NBA.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Kelly Oubre (3), Jerian Grant (1), Bobby Portis (1)
"The Suns need size in the backcourt. They have [Eric] Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. Those two are tiny. Adding Jerian Grant would be huge. They need a guard with some size."
14. Jerian Grant, PG
Oklahoma City Thunder
College: Notre Dame | 6-5, 185 pounds
Analysis: OKC doesn't necessarily need anything besides health, and the Thunder should return just about everyone from this season's squad. Grant is a guy who can play both backcourt spots if needed -- and could be an upgrade at the 2-guard spot.
Pick from our NBA executives survey: Devin Booker (2), Jerian Grant (2), Justin Anderson (1)
"Grant fits them, and he can play with Russell Westbrook really well."
"Booker is the best on the board. Plus, they could use another shooter."
storyteller
Superstar
This thread...perfection...thanks to all contributors. Can anyone throw the Steelers break down from this article up for me?
http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/12913383/offseason-grades-all-32-teams-nfl
http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/12913383/offseason-grades-all-32-teams-nfl
Pittsburgh Steelers: B-minus
Re-signed: DE Clifton Geathers, LB Arthur Moats, LB James Harrison, LS Greg Warren, QB Ben Roethlisberger, S Will Allen, TE Matt Spaeth, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey
Veteran additions: RB DeAngelo Williams, TE Brandon Hartson
Veteran subtractions: RB Ben Tate, DE Brett Keisel, CB Brice McCain, CB Ike Taylor, OLB Jason Worilds, WR Justin Brown, WR Lance Moore, TE Michael Palmer, S Troy Polamalu
Draft picks: 1-Bud Dupree (LB), 2-Senquez Golson (DB), 3-Sammie Coates(WR), 4-Doran Grant (DB), 5-Jesse James (TE), 6a-Leterrius Walton (DT), 6b-Anthony Chickillo (DE), 7-Gerod Holliman (DB)
Analysis: The Steelers were right on the line between B-minus and C-plus for reasons that came through in Polian's comments.
"This is a changing-of-the-guard year on defense with a new coordinator and new people in the secondary," Polian said. "Is the rush going to be what it needs to be? There are unanswered questions there."
Yates was highest on the Steelers (B-plus grade) because they completed a deal with Ben Roethlisberger, added Williams as insurance for Le'Veon Bell and seemed to do what was expected in the draft.
"They did not do much," Williamson said. "The key is, all these high defensive picks they've made need to start stepping up, especially with all the changes. They are really a B-minus to me, pending what they get out of the young early draft picks."
Riddikk was a little lower on the Steelers because he thought Dupree and Coates were bigger question marks than some early selections.
"I like their draft, but Dupree was a reach in the first round and they need him to be good," Riddikk said. "He cannot be like Jarvis Jones and not give them punch off the corner. He will make this class either very good or very average. Coates is a tremendous vertical athlete, but he has to learn the entire route tree and he has questionable hands."
954UAlreadyknow
All Star
ReturnOfJudah
Veteran
Thanks in advance
Whose stock is rising in the Class of 2017?
http://espn.go.com/blog/ncbrecruiting/on-the-trail/insider/post?id=13860
Whose stock is rising in the Class of 2017?
http://espn.go.com/blog/ncbrecruiting/on-the-trail/insider/post?id=13860