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Skooby

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Kerr tops list of COY candidates

The 2014-15 NBA season has been one of the most parity-driven campaigns in league history, with legitimate questions as to who will win the championship and well beyond. We're embroiled in an MVP race that has five (and by some counts six) candidates. Every award and accolade seems to have fierce debate surrounding it, from the All-Star berths in February to who's the league's most improved player to the All-Defensive Team spots.

It should come as no surprise that the coach of the year race is just as intensely competitive, with several deserving candidates. I don't have a ballot, but if I did, these would be my top four picks -- with one clear winner -- along with a few honorable mentions.




1. Steve Kerr | Golden State Warriors | 66 wins (and counting)



By now, you should be able to rattle off all the benchmarks Golden State has achieved in Kerr's first year as a head coach (on any level): franchise-record wins, shattering the previous mark of 59 set almost 40 years ago, and a league-leading net rating of 11.4 points per 100 possessions, the highest mark since the 2008 Boston Celtics. And Kerr did all this despite inheriting mostly the same roster the Warriors sported a year ago, when they won 51 games. Several players have enjoyed career seasons in 2014-15, including Stephen Curry (leading MVP candidate), Klay Thompson (first-time All-Star) and Draymond Green (leading DPOY candidate), but how much of their success can be attributed to Kerr? Here are some of the ways:

Offensive overhaul

Kerr freed up an offense that had been dominated by Curry's play creation via pick-and-roll and a heavy diet of isolation basketball, and he did so by using the high IQ and passing of the personnel on the roster. Most significantly, he made Andrew Bogut a much bigger feature of the offense; whereas he had been mostly an afterthought offensively in years past, relegated to offensive rebounding and screening, this season Bogut became a focal point from the high-post area, picking defenses apart with his passing, finding cutting teammates and perfecting the dribble handoff, which created tremendous space for the curling shooters. Further, the bigger emphasis on off-ball movement put players like Thompson and Harrison Barnes in a better position to be successful, as they lacked the creativity to consistently create their own shots via dribble. (In Thompson's case, the creation of easier shots within the flow of the offense actually made isolations easier for him, as the defense had to be wary of all the other actions.) The decentralization of the Warriors' offense made them impossible to guard, lightened the burden on Curry and produced an additional four points per 100 possessions on offense.

Defensive tweaks

The Warriors were already a defensive juggernaut when Kerr took over, but he did make some important tweaks. By appreciating the wealth of like-sized players and high IQ across the board of his roster, the Warriors employed a lot more switching on defense, which allowed them to react quickly and take teams out of their primary actions. Kerr increased Green's playing time by 10-plus minutes per game, and it paid dividends almost immediately. Inserting Green into the starting lineup brought defensive balance to the starting lineup, as his toughness and versatility allowed Golden State to switch frequently and really set the pace for the league's best defense. Finally, Kerr recognized that Curry was a more-than-capable on-the-ball defender in the context of the team defense, and put the onus on him to guard his own position as opposed to "hiding" him on lesser perimeter players and dropping the responsibility on Thompson. (For an in-depth look at Curry's individual defensive improvements, read Ethan Strauss' breakdown.)

Rotation

First of all, Kerr managed to reduce the playing-time load on most of his rotation players. Last season, the Warriors had three players average more than 33 minutes per game, led by Curry's 36.5. This season, not one player cracked the 33-minute threshold. Although many would point to Golden State's deep roster, the truth is that juggling minutes among many deserving, veteran players can be a difficult proposition. Kerr managed his roster effectively, finding consistent playing time for vets like Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston, getting meaningful rotation minutes to young players like Justin Holiday and James McAdoo, and keeping vets like David Lee and Leandro Barbosa engaged despite averaging career lows in playing time. It's no easy task to keep everyone happy, and Kerr managed all the egos in that locker room without losing anyone along the way.








2. Mike Budenholzer | Atlanta Hawks | 60 wins (and counting)


There will be a lot of support for the man affectionately known as "Bud" to win the award, and for good reason: Like Kerr, Budenholzer set a franchise record for wins, improving the team's win total from the previous season by 22 victories (and counting). The Hawks' offense was the envy of every small-market team that lacked brand-name players, as the constant off-the-ball motion, back screening and lineups that often featured five perimeter shooting threats terrorized the league for close to three months. Atlanta added three points of offensive efficiency this season and led the league in AST percentage with an absurd 68 percent of all made field goals assisted. Defensively, the Hawks mimicked some of what Golden State adopted with an increased emphasis on switching, and that allowed them to shave off five points per 100 possessions on their defensive efficiency.

Ultimately, despite the unexpectedness of Atlanta's success, I give Kerr the edge over Budenholzer for several reasons:

• It should also be noted that Atlanta's resurgence was in part driven by the return of Al Horford (who missed last season) and the additions of Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha, both integral rotation players (especially Sefolosha).

• Budenholzer had the advantage of returning for a second year with most of the same roster, giving the team the added benefit of continuity.

• Although Atlanta posted a stellar record against the Western Conference, much of its record was built off the less-than-stellar East.







3. Brad Stevens | Boston Celtics | 39 wins (and counting)


On Feb. 1, the Celtics were 14 games under .500 and sported the seventh-worst record in the league; they had jettisoned vets Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green, and they were fielding a lineup that arguably did not have a single starting-caliber player. Fast-forward to April 15, and the Celtics not only avoided a trip to the lottery dais in May but also have locked up the seventh seed in the playoff race -- and not by moonwalking their way in, either. Boston has gone 23-12 down the stretch with a net rating of plus-2.3 points per 100 possessions along the way. Stevens took a very young roster with decent but not elite (and certainly not immediate) talent and cobbled together a functioning, competitive club. Offensively, the Celtics play an egalitarian offense, similar to Golden State and Atlanta, where ball and player movement is plentiful and a high number of made field goals are assisted (fifth in AST percentage at 62.6). Stevens has impressed many with his creative play calling in after-timeout situations (ATO), with great actions from both under-out-of-bounds and side-out-of-bounds placements (like Tuesday night's game winner by Jae Crowder).

"[Stevens] took a team that was in a rebuilding stage, a very young team that, as you guys know, no one had even in the talk of even trying to make the playoffs, and we're here, we're in," Celtics rookie Marcus Smart said. "So on that aspect of his part, you've got to commend him on that."

Commend him we shall, but he still places beneath Kerr and Budenholzer.







4. Jason Kidd | Milwaukee Bucks | 41 wins (and counting)


No one could have seen Kidd making this kind of impact in Milwaukee, especially considering his rocky rookie head-coaching experience in Brooklyn a season ago (not to mention his dishonorable discharge from the Nets followed by his backroom dealing into the Bucks position that wasn't even vacant at the time). That said, it's important to remember that when Kidd was hired by the Nets, he was supposed to serve as a veteran mentor who would enlighten the struggling franchise on how to get to the next level. Unfortunately, the Nets consummated the disastrous trade with the Celtics that brought three veteran contemporaries of Kidd to Brooklyn, basically invalidating whatever veteran mystique he was bringing into his first coaching job (a phenomenon I predicted before they played their first game).

Fast-forward to Milwaukee, where Kidd finally inherited the situation he was best suited to lead: a young team that was willing and eager to listen to the words of wisdom he had to share. The results have been terrific. The Bucks went from the worst record a year ago (15-67) to a guaranteed .500 record with their 41st win (no small feat, as Bucks forward Jared Dudley reminded me on Twitter).

A bottom-two defense a season ago, the Bucks are now the second-best defense in the league, holding opponents to just 99.2 points per 100 possessions. Kidd has smartly exploited the length advantages on his roster with lanky players like Giannis Antetokounmpo,John Henson and Khris Middleton clogging passing lanes without a ton of motion. He seamlessly integrated veterans like Dudley and Jerryd Bayless without sacrificing precious developmental playing time for the team's young franchise cornerstones, and got OJ Mayo to produce his most meaningful basketball since leaving Memphis. Finally, he successfully navigated the franchise through two catastrophic events: the losses of Jabari Parker to injury and Larry Sanders thanks to personal issues.


Honorable mentions: Quin Snyder (Jazz), Kevin McHale (Rockets), Doc Rivers (Clippers)
 

Skooby

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can someone post pelton on hawks/warriors Defense struggles

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/stor...guing-atlanta-hawks-golden-state-warriors-nba


rep will be given
Defensive woes -- not 3-point shooting -- plaguing Hawks and Warriors

Before Sunday's games, New York Knicks president Phil Jackson took to Twitter to ask a rhetorical question, writing, "NBA analysts give me some diagnostics on how 3pt oriented teams are faring this playoffs... ." He was surely mindful of the criticism his Knicks have taken in this space and elsewhere for their limited use of the 3-point shot.

The answer, of course, is that the Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Clippers are doing just swell. But while Sunday's winning teams ranked second and third, respectively, in the percentage of their attempts from 3-point range this season (behind the Houston Rockets, who lost to the Clippers), Jackson was surely referring to the Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors, the 3-heavy No. 1 seeds in their conferences (Atlanta was fourth in the league in percentage of attempts from 3-point range and Golden State seventh), Both teams currently trail their series 2-1 and face crucial Game 4s on the road Monday night.

Indeed, the Hawks and Warriors haven't shot well from beyond the arc as they've unexpectedly fallen behind in their series. But poor shooting isn't the only reason Atlanta and Golden State have stumbled in the conference semifinals. Their defense has failed them too. Let's take a look at both aspects.


Untimely 3-Point Slump

More than by shooting a lot of 3s, the Hawks and Warriors distinguished themselves during the regular season by making them at a high rate. Golden State shot a league-best 39.8 percent from long distance, with Atlanta second at 38.0 percent. Neither has been able to match those gaudy percentages in their current series. The Hawks are shooting 33.3 percent against the Washington Wizards, while the Memphis Grizzlies have limited the Warriors to 31.3 percent shooting -- including 23.1 percent accuracy (6-of-26) in each of the last two games, two of Golden State's five worst 3-point percentages all season.

Remarkably, both teams seem to be getting about the same quality of looks as they did during the regular season, based on the location of the nearest defender -- tracked by SportVU cameras and available on NBA.com/Stats.

{C}

Defender RS A% PO A% RS 3P% PO 3P%
0-2 Feet 2.3% 3.8% 35.3% 33.3%
2-4 Feet 18.9% 22.5% 35.8% 22.2%
4-6 Feet 38.0% 35.0% 40.3% 35.7%
6+ Feet 40.8% 38.8% 42.0% 32.3%


The Warriors have gotten slightly fewer attempts with the nearest defender at least four feet away, but the difference is marginal -- a difference of about 0.2 percent in Golden State's 3-point percentage if the team shot the same percentage based on the location of the defender. The Warriors made better than 40 percent of their attempts without a defender within four feet in the regular season, but are down to 33.9 percent in this series, explaining most of the decline in their 3-point percentage.



Defender RS A% PO A% RS 3P% PO 3P%
0-2 Feet 1.5% 1.3% 42.4% 0.0%
2-4 Feet 12.7% 21.3% 35.4% 41.2%
4-6 Feet 36.5% 32.5% 36.9% 34.6%
6+ Feet 49.3% 57.5% 39.4% 30.4%


Atlanta has actually gotten more of what SportVU considers "wide-open shots" (no defender closer than six feet) in this series than during the regular season. So if the Hawks were shooting the same percentage based on the nearest defender, their 3-point percentage would be identical to their regular-season mark. Instead, Atlanta has struggled badly on wide-open attempts.

Now, defender distance isn't the only indicator of shot quality. SportVU doesn't distinguish whether the defender has a hand up to contest or the speed with which they are approaching. This method also doesn't factor in players rushing shots to try to take advantage of rare open looks or how additional fatigue might affect shooting percentages.

That all noted, the Hawks and Warriors can be heartened that they survived similar shooting slumps early in the first round. Golden State went up 3-0 on the New Orleans Pelicans despite shooting just 34.0 percent from 3-point range, then exploded for 54.2 percent shooting in Game 4 to complete the sweep. Atlanta made 30.8 percent of its 3s in the first three games against the Brooklyn Nets before shooting 39.8 percent over the last three games.

Besides the lesser quality of competition, defense allowed the Warriors and Hawks to win without high-percentage shooting early in the first round. And that's been missing as they've fallen behind in their current series.

Disappearing Defense

Even while shooting poorly, Atlanta has posted a 104.8 offensive rating in the first three games against Washington -- second best among all teams during the conference semifinals and 4.8 more points per 100 possessions than the Wizards allowed during the regular season. That's actually better than the Hawks performed relative to league average in the regular season.

Atlanta's real problem has been on defense, where Washington has averaged 103.3 points per 100 possessions -- 1.5 more than the Wizards managed during the regular season, despite the absence of star point guard John Wall the last two games.

Golden State's offense has been disappointing in this series, even considering the opposition. The Warriors have managed just 98.9 points per 100 possessions, 1.0 fewer than Memphis allowed during the regular season, when the Grizzlies were fourth in the NBA in defensive rating. But the Warriors also haven't been able to lean on their league-leading defense the same way they did during the regular season, when Golden State went 8-1 while shooting worse than 27 percent from 3-point range.

As I noted in looking at the Warriors' dependence on the 3 earlier this season, they locked down on defense in those poor-shooting games, holding opponents 10.6 percent below their typical offensive ratings. That hasn't been the case in this series. Memphis has scored 101.1 points per 100 possessions in its two wins over Golden State, similar to the Grizzlies' season-long 103.1 offensive rating.

So to even their series tonight, the Hawks and Warriors will need to make more open shots from beyond the arc but also step up their effort at the defensive end. Both issues have been factors in the No. 1 seeds' falling behind 2-1.
 

KillaCali32

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good stuff skooby..I greatly appreciate all the good stuff

if you can put up this one on gregg popovich from amin elhassan I would like to read this one as well.

thanks a million!


http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...g-popovich-knew-evolve-continue-spurs-success

plus this one on mirotic

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insi...-thibodeau-figured-how-use-nikola-mirotic-nba


edit-
and pelton on monty williams being fired

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/stor...ans-made-right-call-firing-monty-williams-nba
 
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