Power moves: Ideal free-agent fits for Eastern Conference teams
The business of the 2014-15 NBA season is not quite complete. It won't be until we've crowned a new champion from the riveting Finals matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors. It's hard not to be focused on that series.
But for 28 teams, the offseason is underway. Draft prospects are working out for teams. General managers are chattering with each other in advance of that first summer trade. And agents are positioning their clients for the annual free agent frenzy that kicks off the beginning of July.
While we take our breaths on the off-day between Games 3 and 4, let's take a look at the major objectives each team will (or should) have when free agency begins. We'll do the Eastern Conference today, and check back in with the West on Friday.
Atlanta Hawks
Likely cap position: under
Top objective: keep the band together.
Possible targets: The Hawks soared to the East's top seed with one of the most efficient pay-to-performance ratios in the league. This is a core group that has developed terrific chemistry over the last two seasons, had has some upside for further growth given the development of 21-year-old point guard Dennis Schroder.
Earlier this season, a league executive told me something that has really stuck in my mind: Right now, continuity is one of the most valuable commodities in the NBA. A championship for a Cleveland team built on the fly over a Golden State team that has grown up together might curb that trend. Still, there is no reason for the Hawks to make major changes. To keep their lineup together, they'll have fend off suitors for unrestricted free agents Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll. The good news is that the Hawks have a cap picture, with only Al Horford currently slated to earn eight figures next season. They can pay Millsap and Carroll what the market bears and almost certainly still stay under the tax line. This will be top priority in Atlanta's offseason.
Boston Celtics
Likely cap position: under or over
Top objective: star player
Possible targets: With sizable cap holds on the books for Boston free agents Brandon Bass and Jonas Jerebko, as well as around $26 million in trade exceptions, Danny Ainge can operate as either over or under the cap, depending on what sort of interest he can find through free agency. Like a number of teams with flexibility, Ainge's summer will begin with a star hunt, with a max-level player like San Antonio's Kawhi Leonard an obvious fit.
Boston needs rim protection, which should certainly lead to some calls to DeAndre Jordan's agent. A run at Detroit's Greg Monroe might also be in the offing, especially if a sign-and-trade deal could be arranged. Given the dearth of scoring, midlevel wings on the market, a run at Carroll makes sense as well. In the end, Ainge's best bet could turn out to be staying over the cap to preserve his exceptions.
Brooklyn Nets
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: keep Brook Lopez
Possible targets: The Nets won't have money to spend on major free agents. Much of the summer will probably be spent in a futile attempt to coerce another team into taking on Deron Williams or Joe Johnson. If Lopez decides to opt out of the last year of his deal, Brooklyn has little choice but to lock him up on a deal that will take him through his remaining prime seasons.
Lopez played so well late in the season and in the playoffs that he'll almost certainly opt out. Given his injury history, a longer-term deal with guaranteed money beyond next season is a must. Keeping Lopez is a risk, but if he can stay on the court, he's the one building block the Nets have.
Charlotte Hornets
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: find, or keep, a scorer
Possible targets: Al Jefferson and Gerald Henderson both have player options for next season, worth a combined $19.5 million. If they both opt in, which seems likely, that puts Charlotte right around next season's projected cap in guaranteed money alone. So Rich Cho would be left with a full midlevel exception to find some desperately needed scoring for his defense-heavy club.
If Jefferson, or maybe even Lance Stephenson, can bounce back, and young players Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller and Noah Vonleh continue to develop, the Hornets can grow from within. They'll also add another top-10 pick with the ninth selection on June 25. A scoring wing would be great, but there just aren't many possibilities from the free-agent pool that could be had for the mid-level exception. More likely, the Hornets will push to retain instant offense threat Mo Williams to bolster the bench.
Chicago Bulls
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: retain Jimmy Butler
Possible targets: We don't know how far apart Butler and the Bulls were when extension talks petered out last fall, but in the end Chicago will pay a premium for not coming to an agreement. Butler will almost certainly attract a max offer this summer, and the Bulls will have to match it, or else risk taking a big step back with a veteran roster than needs to win now.
Keeping Butler will nudge Chicago up near the tax line, leaving little room to retain free agent shooter Mike Dunleavy. A trade always is a possibility, as the Bulls have depth in the frontcourt. Otherwise, this will be an uneventful free agent season in Chicago, where the biggest splash turns out to be on the sidelines with the switch from Tom Thibodeau to Fred Hoiberg.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: keeping the supporting cast together
Possible targets: LeBron James and Kevin Love can both opt out of their deals. James probably will, but he's not going anywhere. Love is the big question mark, and if the Cavs win the title, there will plenty of debate about whether Cleveland should want him back. (They should.) On the other hand, it might be tough for the Cavs to retain all of their restricted free agents: Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova.
It might come down to just how far into luxury tax waters owner Dan Gilbert will want to wade. While Cleveland will probably be limited to the smaller midlevel exception and veteran minimums through free agency, they'll be at the top of the list for players in that market. The most intriguing part of Cleveland's summer will be how David Griffin leverages the $10.5 million nonguaranteed season left on the contract of little-used center Brendan Haywood.
Detroit Pistons
Likely cap position: under
Top objective: getting something for Greg Monroe
Possible targets: Detroit is likely to invest long term in restricted free agent point guard Reggie Jackson, who they liked after he arrived in-season from Oklahoma City. The real drama surrounds Monroe, who took the unusual step of signing his qualifying offer last fall, making him an restricted free agent next month. Detroit has the financial upper hand in terms of what they can offer, but it's uncertain whether it would be wise to lock into Monroe next to Andre Drummond, especially given Stan Van Gundy's preferred style of basketball.
Still, it would be devastating to lose an asset like Monroe for mere cap space that might prove difficult to fill. Sign-and-trade deals aren't as lucrative for players as they used to be, but that might be Van Gundy's top option. Otherwise, they almost have to give Monroe what the market bears and hope he accepts, even if the plan is to trade him down the line.
Indiana Pacers
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: backcourt scoring
Possible targets: David West ($12.6 million) and Roy Hibbert ($15.5 million) have player options likely to be exercised. That limits what Larry Bird can do via free agency. We know the Pacers will get a huge boost from the return of Paul George. Indiana still needs offensive playmakers, as will many teams this summer. That makes for a problematic summer, as Bird has unrestricted free agents Rodney Stuckey, C.J. Watson, Lavoy Allen, Luis Scola and Donald Sloan to contend with. While Bird could target someone like Mo Williams through free agency, the Pacers might be a year away from really being able to shake things up.
