The official early voting mail in ballot data thread

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8/14
@tbonier
I've gotten a lot of questions about what I think about the NV early vote, so here's a quick thread. From a party share of the EV, there has obviously been a substantial gap closing relative to 2020, where at this point it was +16D, and right now it is +2D.

9/14
@tbonier
Of course, while I wouldn't compare raw numbers in a presidential to a midterm, it is worth pointing out that, at this point in 2022 the EV in NV was just +3D, and things turned out fine for Dems then.



10/14
@tbonier
Also, let's remember that the final Dem advantage (party reg, not vote) among all EV in NV in 2020 was +3. In 2022 it was +1.5. So Dems started off huge (with lots of mail) in 2020, but things settled back down to a narrow advantage. Meaning, let's keep watching this.

11/14
@tbonier
The other important thing to keep in mind here is that AVR in NV has meant many more unaffiliated voters, and more of them who lean Dem than in previous cycles. So look at turnout % instead of share by party

12/14
@tbonier
The differences are slightly less stark there, but still apparent. At this point in 2020 the Dem turnout % was 5 pts ahead of the GOP. Right now they are 0.1 pts behind, and at this point in 2022 Dem EV turnout was 0.2 pts behind the GOP (and again, things worked out okay).



13/14
@tbonier
No



14/14
@tbonier
I think so, but I'm not sure! I'm waiting until our afternoon update processes and will take a closer look then.




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1/11
@umichvoter
Michigan voters so far are 56% women

[Quoted tweet]
Two weeks to go until the polls close 11/5! Here’s what we’re seeing in Michigan so far:

More than 2.2 million citizens have requested ballots - and 50% (over 1.1 Million) have already been returned.

Our most populous counties are seeing even larger return rates:
Wayne - 57%
Oakland - 52%
Macomb - 55%
Kent - 53%

The majority - 56% - of citizens who have already returned ballots are women.

More than 5,100 citizens have cast votes at open early voting centers in Detroit, East Lansing, and Canton Twp (Wayne County).

You can do a deeper dive on all of this data at michigan.gov/votingdashboard

2/11
@joshtpm
Georgia is almost as high. 55.1%



3/11
@SpencerHakimian
Suburban women are Kamala’s best bet.



4/11
@DelonFerdinand
Last A+ poll in MI said abortion and womens rights were the number one issue for women in MI



5/11
@mrbigg450
Women are going to take out Republicans.



6/11
@TiredofMAGA
Harris campaign is concerned…. LMAO



7/11
@SPNTech32
Ugh.

It all went down hill when we gave them permission to drive…



8/11
@balldaqapp
It's good to be sure, but if I were the Harris campaign I would focus more on WI & PA. Big Gretch has MI in check.



9/11
@BriansHotRead
harris is gonna hit 51% in michigan



10/11
@WizzyProbsII
If that holds AT ALL, Dems sweep.



11/11
@LacDuMichigan
Michigan definitely seems to be lining up well for Kamala, WI and PA, not so sure yet.




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[PewPew]

Trump and the Republicans are going to regret getting rid of Roe V Wade so early.

It seems clear that a lot of women are secretly not with it. That, and what I see as Trump Fatigue.

We all sick of that fat fukk. Let's end this

 

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1/1
@umichvoter
Mid-day update in Florida: Day 2 of Early Voting

Dem mail advantage +77k
GOP in-person early advantage +136k

Votes cast so far: 41.5% 38.4% ️ 20.0%

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1/8
@DanaHoule
Read this article closely, esp what Plouffe says. My take:

*They think she’s ahead
*They don’t believe public polls that have the battlegrounds all within 2 points; suggests they believe some are in the bag
*They don’t need Repub votes to win
*Going after Repubs /1

[Quoted tweet]
Sincere question for @DanaHoule, do these sort comments from the Harris campaign suggest the election is “not close”? edition.cnn.com/2024/10/22/p…
https://twitter.com/sc00niepenn/status/1848698697372119543#m

2/8
@DanaHoule
…& doing a bunch of outreach in unorthodox places isn’t as much to squeak out a win as it is to run up the score
*They trust their data more than their polling
*Their internal presentations of where the campaign is & where it’s headed must be really good if…/2



3/8
@DanaHoule
…big donors feel good (since they’re usually freaked out).

To me it reads not that they know they’ve got it won, but that they know that if they execute that they will win, maybe big. /3



4/8
@DanaHoule
It’s a balance. You want donors to feel confident it’s a good investment but that you need their money. State X is winnable, but that campaign needs volunteers to close the deal (or run up the score). Enthusiasm=good turnout vs sense it’s all decided=low turnout/smaller margins/4

[Quoted tweet]
Always interesting that when Rs talk confidently about winning, it's assumed to be attractive; when Ds talk about it, it's presumed to be depressor. Why don't we think people want to be on this awesome winning team? They do! Lots of them!


5/8
@DanaHoule
This is very good & consistent w what’s long been my theory of the race /5 Inbox | Substack



6/8
@DanaHoule
Plouffe would be talking to multiple audiences. I assume some of it was to convey to the superPAC’s where they believe they are, & to exude confidence pinned to a determination to execute a detailed—& they think winning—plan

Also priming the press for surprises.



7/8
@DanaHoule
Enthusiasm for volunteers, for voters, even for last minute donors.



8/8
@DanaHoule
Par for the course w him.




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[AngryBaby]

 

[IIVI]

Got the Kamala Harris text this morning talking about:

NBC News just published a deeply concerning poll result for our campaign.

Trump has gained five points against Vice President Harris.

But now is not the time to give in to fear. Now is not the time to give up your power.
..

If this dude gained five points, how far is he behind

 

[DetroitEWarren]

I voted and check democrat on everything.

And you walked out still a Zionist piece of shyt

 

[the cac mamba]

Trump and the Republicans are going to regret getting rid of Roe V Wade so early.

It seems clear that a lot of women are secretly not with it. That, and what I see as Trump Fatigue.

if we're being honest, it's really not kamala going out and winning this election. it's these two factors winning it for the democrats

i just hope it happens

 

[Elim Garak]

 

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1/11
@VoteHubUS
Florida
Total early votes: 2,812,581 (+561,773 since Oct 22)
Vote-by-mail: 1,666,163 votes ( D+6)
In-person early: 1,146,041 votes ( R+27)

Breakdown by party registration:
Republican 43.6% | 1,224,968 votes (+270,294)
Democratic 36.3% | 1,020,397 votes (+175,367)
️ NPA/Other 20.1% | 567,217 votes (+116,112)

2/11
@Angelic73120453
if independents lean towards democrats it would be huge



3/11
@StevenValdezII1
Yasaaa MAGA got Florida!!



4/11
@JenFarkas2
What was it at this point last time?



5/11
@WintersPolitics
Can’t believe it’s even this competitive and it shows that it’ll be close in all the States .



6/11
@MikeCT11
NPA is deciding the election.



7/11
@bfm_cj
Interesting data on early voting in Florida. It will be fascinating to see how the final turnout and results unfold in this key battleground state.



8/11
@AlieyahLei
Meta hates this now watch he'll try and sabatoge!



9/11
@christo77562346
Dems are losing!



10/11
@AnimalsRockOn
Is there a gender breakdown?



11/11
@CRod5261
Florida has 1 million more registered Republicans than Democrats. So these results aren’t surprising. The questions are.
1. How are Indy’s voting
2. How many R’s will vote for Harris
3. How many of these early voters were originally ED voters.




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[Strapped]

Are the ballots being delivered to the voters ?

 

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1/4
Let me explain this again: the gop is now more focused on EV. They are relying on voters turning out on Eday and non-voters coming out.

They aren’t picking up new votes. They are running less on high propensity voters on Eday and it’s gonna be hard to find these votes for them



2/4
The numbers in WI are very different that the polls…



3/4
Except, this year, you can’t tell me where trumps new voters come from. We’re working under a lot of assumptions based on past elections. This is different. Looks different. Feels different. We must work like the part is correct, but it isn’t



4/4
Stop relying on polling




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[Elim Garak]

 

[Ransoming]

Just mailed mines out. Tracking that until it updates