The official early voting mail in ballot data thread

IIVI

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It's crazy that this was illegal here until very recently.

So much has changed for the good after we broke Republican control of the state legislature.
Isn't it funny how much the actual facts and progress reveals itself when Republicans aren't allowed to sabotage, censor and limit people?

They're the minority kooks in this country and the only way they know they have a chance is to keep turnout low via cheating and deception.

Enough of this crap.
 
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bnew

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1/11
@IanSams
This should concern Donald Trump

It may also help explain why he’s already starting to spread false claims of fraud, before we even get to Election Day. He’s worried he’s going to lose.



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2/11
@socrateehees
Given a 50/50 split in R/D early votes, isn't it GOOD for Republicans to have more women voting? It would mean they are keeping up while their voters (men) are still in reserve.

If I'm wrong please tell me how.



3/11
@natashablue22
We were recently reminded of our power❣️ /search?q=#RoevemberIsHere



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4/11
@brigid_nease
WOMAN WILL ROAR in 2024! The Sisterhood stands UNITED. We are not divided over age,race,or gender, We speak a common non-verbal language. We unite & fight over deal breaker issues. Men who don't respect & support us, but seek to control us, WILL BE TAKEN TO THE GROUND. Just watch



5/11
@Rbnut1976Cindy
I fear some of those women are trumpers.



6/11
@TAftermath2020
This should concern Kamala



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7/11
@MaryandWinnie
Per the brilliance of @Nick_Anderson_



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8/11
@MichaelMcV49206
Yes indeed. Trump and MAGA know Trump is going to lose, and lose big. So they are pulling out all the stops and ramping up their lying/disinformation in a last-ditch "Battle of the Bulge", doomed to failure.



9/11
@Progres73860658
Most concerning for him in GA and NC where most of the people have voted



10/11
@AWokeZombie
And in PA, it is actually better than previous elections for men. Ian likes to lie



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11/11
@CoherentLightVC
This is the key. Women control America's destiny, and it is in good hands.

/search?q=#CountryOverParty




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bnew

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1/31
@benwikler
Five days left, here’s the state of the race in Wisconsin. 🧵



2/31
@benwikler
TL;DR
- Polls: tied
- Early vote: huge
- Ground game: Dem dominance
- Ads: Dem edge
- Vibes: Dem edge

Help us win: donate. Join me and help WisDems hit their EOM goal!



3/31
@benwikler
And—no matter where you are, you can help Wisconsin go blue by volunteering. Sign up for a phone bank or a door-knocking shift here:
http://wisdems.org/volunteer



4/31
@benwikler
Okay, let’s dig in.

POLLS.

The polling averages say Wisconsin is tied.

FiveThirtyEight has Harris up by 0.8% in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin : President: general election : 2024 Polls



5/31
@benwikler
You can take your pick of polling aggregators.

VoteHub: Harris +0.6
New York Times: Harris +0.6
270toWin: Harris +0.7
DecisionDesk HQ: Trump +0.5
Real Clear Politics: Harris +0.2



6/31
@benwikler
The Marquette University Law School poll is the Wisconsin gold-standard poll. Their final pre-election poll came out yesterday. They say Harris 50, Trump 49.



7/31
@benwikler
People working in politics are voraciously consuming internal polls and modeling. They’re helpful for guiding strategy and targeting. But I’ll spill the non-big non-secret: they, too, say the race is tied here.



8/31
@benwikler
Want to make the race un-tied, in our direction? Seriously, we’re still spending late money on things that can move the needle—like highly targeted digital GOTV ads. Help out:
Join me and help WisDems hit their EOM goal!



9/31
@benwikler
EARLY VOTE

What do we see in Wisconsin?

One thing is clear: it’s massive. Days ago, we eclipsed the final early+mail numbers from 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 (and, of course, every midterm)—and the numbers keep rising.



10/31
@benwikler
1,224,779 have already cast ballots.

519,453 mail-in ballots. Historically, and likely this year, lopsidedly Dem.

705,326 in-person early votes. Historically, 50-50 R/D.

[Quoted tweet]
Wisconsin Absentee Update 10/31

644,011 mail requests
(+2,237 over yesterday)

519,453 mail returns (81.08%)
(+19,877 over yesterday)

705,326 in-person "early votes"
(+95,865 over yesterday)

Today is the deadline for mail ballot requests. Another solid day of mail returns puts


11/31
@benwikler
What we don’t know for certain is who these voters are supporting. We’ve seen a huge jump in early voting in red areas like Waukesha County.

BUT… these early voters have been a bit more likely to be female than in the past. 👀



12/31
@benwikler
Unlike other states, when you register to vote in Wisconsin, you don’t register with a political party.

So any data you see about Dem vs Rep strength in early voting is based on modeling—informed guesses.



13/31
@benwikler
Each municipality processes its own in-person and mail-in ballots. There are two methods.

Some, like Madison, send them out to individual precincts to process at the same time as their Election Day ballots.

Others, e.g. Milwaukee, do it differently—which affects Election Night.



14/31
@benwikler
The absentee ballots that are processed at Central Count locations are typically reported *after* the counts from precincts have come in. So in Milwaukee, for example, you’ll get “100% of precincts reporting”—but many ballots still to be counted.



15/31
@benwikler
The bigger the Democratic advantage among these early ballots, the bigger the change can be once the absentee ballots are counted. Which gives rise to the “red mirage”—where Trump seems to be doing better—and then the “blue shift.”



16/31
@benwikler
This gave rise to countless conspiracy theories in 2020, all debunked.

Republicans killed a bill in Wisconsin that would’ve allowed early processing of absentee ballots and removed this effect.

So, expect some bad-faith GOP conspiracy-mongering again this time.



17/31
@benwikler
ORGANIZING AND GOTV

In Wisconsin, Democrats organize year-round. We’ve done it since the spring of 2017. We’ve been building our Get Out The Vote operation for, oh, 90 months.

The GOP? Not so much.



18/31
@benwikler
Our model is to hire staff that work with county parties and neighbor-to-neighbor organizing teams in every part of the state. These teams are led by volunteers. We now have hundreds.



19/31
@benwikler
That kind of infrastructure means that, at the biggest moments, we can absorb vast numbers of volunteers and put them to work. That’s exactly what’s happening now. Thousands of people are knocking on doors and calling phones every single day.



20/31
@benwikler
We’ve knocked on almost a million doors in the last two weeks in Wisconsin. We’ve placed more than twice as many calls to voters here.

And our knocks per day, in these last five days, are rising. Rapidly.



21/31
@benwikler
We’re watching, closely, for signs of the GOP’s ground game. The signals are sparse. It certainly *looks* like there’s no serious statewide coordinated campaign on the Republican side.



22/31
@benwikler
Elon Musk has financed a patchwork paid canvass, only supporting Trump.

The Koch network (Americans For Prosperity) is knocking on doors just for Eric Hovde.

Here and there, candidates or county parties are hitting doors.

Rs in disarray.



23/31
@benwikler
Field organizing can’t turn a nailbiter into a landslide, or a landslide into a nailbiter. But in a nailbiter, it can give you the edge.

The polls say this is a nailbiter. This could be the key to our edge.

Want to help? Sign up to volunteer:
http://wisdems.org/volunteer



24/31
@benwikler
ADS

I’d give Dems the edge here.

First thing to know: there are a LOT of ads in Wisconsin. Every TV ad break. Every spot a digital ad could go. Radio. Sides of buses. Billboards.



25/31
@benwikler
Harris has gained ground on the economy. The economy’s improved, and Harris’s messaging on economic issues has closed the trust gap.

The GOP has responded by leaning into anti-immigrant and anti-trans messaging, often tied together.



26/31
@benwikler
On the Democratic side, ads generally talk about Harris’s economic proposals, her support for reproductive freedom, and Trump’s extremism—on democracy, abortion, and tax cuts for the rich.



27/31
@benwikler
The same themes show up in House races and even state legislative races. It’s a surround-sound strategy in the final stretch. From Dems, the message is clear: freedom, democracy, and an economy that works for working people.



28/31
@benwikler
No side has overwhelming dominance in the volume of ads in the final stretch. If the number of ads people see from each side is roughly equal, then the persuasiveness of the message is the key factor.



29/31
@benwikler
Remember the line from Kellyanne Conway—Trump's 2016 campaign manager: people vote on what affects them, not what offends them. In 2016, Trump was offensive, but he won.

But THIS year, Trump isn’t taking his own advice. So many Trump ads are about what offends conservatives.



30/31
@benwikler
Dems are running ads on things that directly affect undecided voters. Their financial future. Their personal freedom.

For that reason, I’d give Dems the edge in the air war in the final stretch.



31/31
@benwikler
VIBES ON THE GROUND

I’ve visited 32 of WI’s 72 counties in the last 2 weeks, from the bluest blue counties, to the reddest red and everywhere in between.

Everywhere I go, Dems are nervous about what they read… but excited by what they see in real life. The vibes are positive!




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bnew

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1/11
@VoteHubUS
North Carolina 🌄
Mail: 191,078 ballots
Early In-Person: 3,431,737 ballots

Ballots by party registration:
🔴 Republican 34.0% | 1,230,524 votes
⚪️ Other 33.4% | 1,208,372 votes
🔵 Democratic 32.7% | 1,183,919 votes



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2/11
@PawlowskiMario
Th “other” numbers are interesting 🧐, I wonder how many of them voting for Harris, 60-65%? This may tip the election to Harris



3/11
@JessicaBrawley5
I’m an Independent voter in NC and I voted blue down the ballot. I have two friends that are also Independent. They did the same. We are in Rowan county, a primarily red area.



4/11
@foundingideals
In exit polls that we’ve seen so far, Harris is beating Trump by a decisive margin in North Carolina. This suggests that she is getting substantial support from Independents and disaffected Republicans who want to put an end to the chaotic Trump era.

The electorate of 2024 is similar to 2008 vis-à-vis the cross party appeal of the Democratic candidate. We all know how that election turned out.



5/11
@StevenValdezII1
It’s very interesting that Kamala I heard pulled some of her ads from the state. I could be wrong but I heard that



6/11
@EpCRamos
Demographic Data as of 10/26 from the NC Voter registrations. Interestingly women outnumber men by more than half a million (need to expand the photo to get data on bottom).



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7/11
@MoominWoo
I know plenty of Dems like my husband and I who registered as Independent - and we were thinking of registering as Republican, even - to ensure we weren't purged from the voters rolls. Curious to see how many in the Independent group did that, and how many Reps voted Blue.



8/11
@starship1109
Looks like independent will decide now. D behind Independents.



9/11
@VandomVA
This definitely looks good for Kamala. Independents are breaking for her nationally, most of North Carolina's Democrats don't seem to be voting early while a massive portion of Republicans are, and a lot of these Republicans are going to cross over thanks to Mark Robinson.



10/11
@WaltyJr
Independent voters and some registered republicans will win this election for Harris ! Bookmark this tweet



11/11
@fLuidinio
It’s shocking that Trump is behaving the way he is in the last few days of the campaign, when independents are clearly going to decide this election.




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1/11
@VoteHubUS
Florida 🍊🐊
Total early votes: 6,735,398 (+506,576 since Oct 30)

Vote-by-mail: 2,609,912 ballots (🔵 D+6)
In-person early: 4,123,033 ballots (🔴 R+23)

Ballots by party registration
🔴 Republican 44.5% | 2,997,546 ballots (+208,809)
🔵 Democratic 32.9% | 2,218,775 ballots (+158,138)
⚪️ NPA/Other 22.5% | 1,519,078 ballots (+139,628)



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2/11
@iamcruzizme
Come on Florida Blue wave...



3/11
@MississippiXX
Florida seems like it could be almost tied. Still think Florida can tilt blue.



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4/11
@rp351
Hope Trump pissed off enough Puerto Ricans and Haitians to tip the scale. Otherwise Fl is red. 😢 We’ll all find out Tuesday night. 🇺🇸🇺🇸



5/11
@degenit4ls
Miam-Dade is red 🤣🤣🤣



6/11
@starship1109
May reach 1 million spread before election day.



7/11
@lgnstrwbrry
The Republicans margin for IPEV has gone down from a high of R+27. If it keeps going down, it will make things very interesting especially if those NPAs skew Democrat.



8/11
@Juicy_Jase
Oof



9/11
@Colgruv
3 metro areas still red 👀 not buying it



10/11
@poeticlove1989
Bro: this isn’t news. Stevie wonder could see Trump was gonna win Florida. This is like posting California voting. We all know Kamala is gonna win California



11/11
@SAMSUNG20752523
1.6 million NPA ...wow absolute record...I'm gonna go on a limb and say mostly Harris voters ..still 700k gap is difficult to close unless ex gop votes Harris as well




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1/11
@VoteHubUS
Update on our latest national and state polling averages as of November 1 at 1:00 AM 👉



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2/11
@hyperusc89
This will be funny to laugh at next week.



3/11
@jasonhaber
At this point, only polls that matter are the ones at the ballot box - and so far they don’t match the polling. It’s a female heavy turnout and lots of new voters



4/11
@EromancerGames
Disastrous for republicans!



5/11
@RachelHPhillips
Trend is on the up and up so very hopeful!



6/11
@ApriilNiicole91
What are your thoughts on Republicans claims about low propensity voters? I can’t believe I’m even entertaining this claim with the fact it literally means people that you don’t know if they’re going to vote or not. These are the numbers they’re throwing around



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7/11
@nblackshoe




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8/11
@Sanlers1
Why is this report no longer popping on my page.
Has votehub been throttled by X?



9/11
@LewisCallum
PA a dead heat 👀😬 oh my.



10/11
@Ryan_Brady
DRUMPF is done for!



11/11
@n8iveblueyorker
Did this include Marist???




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1/11
@VoteHubUS
Georgia 🍑
Early voting update (as of 5 am on Oct 31)

In-person: 3,399,397 ballots
Mail: 224,859 ballots



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2/11
@VoteHubUS
We've added a web filter for you to turn on labels for turnout percentages by county



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3/11
@NorCaliStar
This is already about 73% of 2020 totals! Yeah I believe Harris will win Georgia but very narrowly



4/11
@mattykinsX
Disastrous for Democrats



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5/11
@StevenValdezII1
Let’s go MAGA we need this state.



6/11
@PatriotVerity
I see some blue. I think. Lemme see.
Nah nvm mostly red 🫠❤️🤷🏼‍♀️🤣



7/11
@25_adult
Trump will win



8/11
@_The_Prophet__




9/11
@PattyBBBBB
This looks like domination for Republicans



10/11
@ProgressDeath
yeah we're gonna make it



11/11
@OlaniyiOnline
MAGA Maggots are thinking the red shades on the map are their votes.. 🤣 😆




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