1/31
@benwikler
Five days left, here’s the state of the race in Wisconsin.
2/31
@benwikler
TL;DR
- Polls: tied
- Early vote: huge
- Ground game: Dem dominance
- Ads: Dem edge
- Vibes: Dem edge
Help us win: donate.
Join me and help WisDems hit their EOM goal!
3/31
@benwikler
And—no matter where you are, you can help Wisconsin go blue by volunteering. Sign up for a phone bank or a door-knocking shift here:
http://wisdems.org/volunteer
4/31
@benwikler
Okay, let’s dig in.
POLLS.
The polling averages say Wisconsin is tied.
FiveThirtyEight has Harris up by 0.8% in Wisconsin.
Wisconsin : President: general election : 2024 Polls
5/31
@benwikler
You can take your pick of polling aggregators.
VoteHub: Harris +0.6
New York Times: Harris +0.6
270toWin: Harris +0.7
DecisionDesk HQ: Trump +0.5
Real Clear Politics: Harris +0.2
6/31
@benwikler
The Marquette University Law School poll is the Wisconsin gold-standard poll. Their final pre-election poll came out yesterday. They say Harris 50, Trump 49.
7/31
@benwikler
People working in politics are voraciously consuming internal polls and modeling. They’re helpful for guiding strategy and targeting. But I’ll spill the non-big non-secret: they, too, say the race is tied here.
8/31
@benwikler
Want to make the race un-tied, in our direction? Seriously, we’re still spending late money on things that can move the needle—like highly targeted digital GOTV ads. Help out:
Join me and help WisDems hit their EOM goal!
9/31
@benwikler
EARLY VOTE
What do we see in Wisconsin?
One thing is clear: it’s massive. Days ago, we eclipsed the final early+mail numbers from 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 (and, of course, every midterm)—and the numbers keep rising.
10/31
@benwikler
1,224,779 have already cast ballots.
519,453 mail-in ballots. Historically, and likely this year, lopsidedly Dem.
705,326 in-person early votes. Historically, 50-50 R/D.
[Quoted tweet]
Wisconsin Absentee Update 10/31
644,011 mail requests
(+2,237 over yesterday)
519,453 mail returns (81.08%)
(+19,877 over yesterday)
705,326 in-person "early votes"
(+95,865 over yesterday)
Today is the deadline for mail ballot requests. Another solid day of mail returns puts
11/31
@benwikler
What we don’t know for certain is who these voters are supporting. We’ve seen a huge jump in early voting in red areas like Waukesha County.
BUT… these early voters have been a bit more likely to be female than in the past.
12/31
@benwikler
Unlike other states, when you register to vote in Wisconsin, you don’t register with a political party.
So any data you see about Dem vs Rep strength in early voting is based on modeling—informed guesses.
13/31
@benwikler
Each municipality processes its own in-person and mail-in ballots. There are two methods.
Some, like Madison, send them out to individual precincts to process at the same time as their Election Day ballots.
Others, e.g. Milwaukee, do it differently—which affects Election Night.
14/31
@benwikler
The absentee ballots that are processed at Central Count locations are typically reported *after* the counts from precincts have come in. So in Milwaukee, for example, you’ll get “100% of precincts reporting”—but many ballots still to be counted.
15/31
@benwikler
The bigger the Democratic advantage among these early ballots, the bigger the change can be once the absentee ballots are counted. Which gives rise to the “red mirage”—where Trump seems to be doing better—and then the “blue shift.”
16/31
@benwikler
This gave rise to countless conspiracy theories in 2020, all debunked.
Republicans killed a bill in Wisconsin that would’ve allowed early processing of absentee ballots and removed this effect.
So, expect some bad-faith GOP conspiracy-mongering again this time.
17/31
@benwikler
ORGANIZING AND GOTV
In Wisconsin, Democrats organize year-round. We’ve done it since the spring of 2017. We’ve been building our Get Out The Vote operation for, oh, 90 months.
The GOP? Not so much.
18/31
@benwikler
Our model is to hire staff that work with county parties and neighbor-to-neighbor organizing teams in every part of the state. These teams are led by volunteers. We now have hundreds.
19/31
@benwikler
That kind of infrastructure means that, at the biggest moments, we can absorb vast numbers of volunteers and put them to work. That’s exactly what’s happening now. Thousands of people are knocking on doors and calling phones every single day.
20/31
@benwikler
We’ve knocked on almost a million doors in the last two weeks in Wisconsin. We’ve placed more than twice as many calls to voters here.
And our knocks per day, in these last five days, are rising. Rapidly.
21/31
@benwikler
We’re watching, closely, for signs of the GOP’s ground game. The signals are sparse. It certainly *looks* like there’s no serious statewide coordinated campaign on the Republican side.
22/31
@benwikler
Elon Musk has financed a patchwork paid canvass, only supporting Trump.
The Koch network (Americans For Prosperity) is knocking on doors just for Eric Hovde.
Here and there, candidates or county parties are hitting doors.
Rs in disarray.
23/31
@benwikler
Field organizing can’t turn a nailbiter into a landslide, or a landslide into a nailbiter. But in a nailbiter, it can give you the edge.
The polls say this is a nailbiter. This could be the key to our edge.
Want to help? Sign up to volunteer:
http://wisdems.org/volunteer
24/31
@benwikler
ADS
I’d give Dems the edge here.
First thing to know: there are a LOT of ads in Wisconsin. Every TV ad break. Every spot a digital ad could go. Radio. Sides of buses. Billboards.
25/31
@benwikler
Harris has gained ground on the economy. The economy’s improved, and Harris’s messaging on economic issues has closed the trust gap.
The GOP has responded by leaning into anti-immigrant and anti-trans messaging, often tied together.
26/31
@benwikler
On the Democratic side, ads generally talk about Harris’s economic proposals, her support for reproductive freedom, and Trump’s extremism—on democracy, abortion, and tax cuts for the rich.
27/31
@benwikler
The same themes show up in House races and even state legislative races. It’s a surround-sound strategy in the final stretch. From Dems, the message is clear: freedom, democracy, and an economy that works for working people.
28/31
@benwikler
No side has overwhelming dominance in the volume of ads in the final stretch. If the number of ads people see from each side is roughly equal, then the persuasiveness of the message is the key factor.
29/31
@benwikler
Remember the line from Kellyanne Conway—Trump's 2016 campaign manager: people vote on what affects them, not what offends them. In 2016, Trump was offensive, but he won.
But THIS year, Trump isn’t taking his own advice. So many Trump ads are about what offends conservatives.
30/31
@benwikler
Dems are running ads on things that directly affect undecided voters. Their financial future. Their personal freedom.
For that reason, I’d give Dems the edge in the air war in the final stretch.
31/31
@benwikler
VIBES ON THE GROUND
I’ve visited 32 of WI’s 72 counties in the last 2 weeks, from the bluest blue counties, to the reddest red and everywhere in between.
Everywhere I go, Dems are nervous about what they read… but excited by what they see in real life. The vibes are positive!
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