1. Lane Kiffin: There's no stopping the what-if train
So here we are, in a sport that refuses to live in the now because the future is so undeniably delicious, and the Lane Kiffin to Florida dating game has officially begun.
Lane and Florida sitting in a tree, k-i-s-s-i-n-g. First comes a firing, then comes a hiring, then comes Kiffin …
“All of a sudden,
our program isn’t terrible,” Kiffin said last weekend in defense of his
Ole Miss team after the then-Top 10 Rebels lost at home to Kentucky as a double-digit favorite ― and kicked off the inevitable Florida and Kiffin chase.
Deny it all you want, everyone. This shotgun marriage now has momentum.
Before we go further, Kiffin is absolutely right. The idea that Ole Miss is a fraud, or got exposed or
can’t win a big game because of one bad Saturday is wildly shortsighted.
But there’s no chance that’s stopping this train of what-if. If anything, it enhanced it.
It's all about timing now, and how one more Ole Miss loss sets everything in motion.
The Florida program, once a beacon for all things opulence and arrogance, is a shadow of its former championship self.
Gators coach Billy Napier is another discombobulated, dysfunctional loss away from getting tossed on the scrap heap of Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen.
It’s the worst kept secret in college football.
Florida, with every possible advantage to win big, hasn’t done it since Urban Meyer arrived in Gainesville nearly two decades ago and road roughshod over college football with a six-year iron fist that was equal parts remarkable and repulsive.
Then there’s Kiffin, whose coaching career began in 2009 at Tennessee just as Meyer’s run at Florida – and the Gators’ perch on the top of the college football mountain – was starting to fade.
Get the Sports newsletter in your inbox.
Sports news, no matter the season. Stop by for the scores, stay for the stories.
Delivery: Daily
Your Email
Kiffin began his one-year run at Tennessee by accusing Meyer of NCAA recruiting violations, and then committed multiple violations himself over an 11-month span as the Vols coach before leaving for his dream job at Southern California.
If ever a coach and a program were destined for each other, this is it.
2. Florida's coaching folly
Let’s dissect Florida’s coaching hires since Meyer skulked out of town after the 2010 season, shall we?
Muschamp: Elite defensive coach and recruiter, couldn’t find/develop a quarterback.
McElwain: Nick Saban assistant, and an expert fisherman.
Mullen: Elite offensive mind, disinterested recruiter.
Meanwhile, the program fell behind in the facilities arms race, and waited a decade before getting serious about spending money because Steve Spurrier and Meyer won national titles without bells and whistles, why can't everyone else?
Then Napier arrived and was given everything he could possibly want. A new $60 million football facility, and a support staff of 40-plus covering every possible contingency – except the one that mattered most.
What if Napier wasn’t ready for the job?
Now it’s time to hire a true ball coach. One with a track record of recruiting and developing players, who will work the talent-rich state of Florida and organically build a roster into a championship-level team.
Forget what you’ve heard about Kiffin from years past. He made mistakes, who doesn’t?
AT THE END:It's time for Florida to bid goodbye to Billy Napier
He’s not the carnival barker at Tennessee, or the overwhelmed coach in an untenable situation following Pete Carroll at USC (without 30 scholarships because of NCAA sanctions), or even the unpredictable yet brilliant offensive mind Saban tolerated at Alabama.
He has become a legit ball coach, in every facet of the position.
He has double-digit win seasons (plural) at Ole Miss, including a school-record 11 victories in 2023. He’s as good a quarterback coach/developer and play caller as there is in the game.
Now imagine him recruiting in the state of Florida. Or better yet, coaching Gators talented freshman quarterback DJ Lagway.
3. Chasing Kiffin, The Epilogue
The Kentucky loss isn’t a deal-breaker for the Ole Miss season, but it brings Kffin and the Rebels one loss closer to missing the College Football Playoff. That’s the key to this potential Florida and Kiffin marriage.
Timing is everything.
If Ole Miss is in the playoff, it will be difficult for Kiffin to walk away – and for Florida to wait. If Ole Miss doesn’t advance to the CFP, Florida can hire him the day after the field is set.
We can debate about whether Florida will pay what it takes to get Kiffin (likely $11-12 million a year), and if it’s serious about escaping the college football hinterlands and avoiding the SEC freefall to the depths of Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.
But there is no debate about job value.
Kiffin’s own success at Ole Miss has moved expectations to the level of Florida. In other words, no matter where he coaches, the bar is the CFP and winning it all.
He could coach Ole Miss, and annually rummage through the transfer portal and hope to hit more times than not. Or he could leave for Florida, and recruit and develop from one of the three most talent-rich states for high school football – and add a few impact players from the portal.
Deny it all you want, the fuse has been lit on this looming shotgun marriage.
It’s only a matter of timing.
. Breh probably should have been y'all plan A. But I know most of you are star fukkers when it comes to recruiting.
