Red Shield
Global Domination
Yeah I could definitely see that
The France Thread: Oui Oui, Bonbons and all that bad stuff 🇫🇷
Red Shield
Global Domination
Le Pen is not winning this. It might be closer this time around but Macron is easily the favorite in both rounds.
Because in the first round, you vote for who you prefer and in the second one, you vote against who you like the least
The French left has always been like that. It's often theorized that Jospin lost in 2022 because of that specifically.
And to be honest, France has been leaning right for a while now. As said earlier in the thread, even the socialist presidents we had were more social-democrats so center-left mostly.
I'd suggest not to base assumptions on one poll though the current dynamic is indeed looking positive for her. Here's a better overview of the it.
Opinion polling for the 2022 French presidential election - Wikipedia
Also, Le Pen might also be polling a bit higher than she will be. She steadily polled between 38 and 41 in 2017 but ended up at 34%. The undecided might give Macron a better margin ultimately.
Will be hard for Melenchon as he was trailing 5 pts being Le Pen in the latest polls. With his current dynamic, if he ended up with 20%, that would be a great W anyway.
Why he doesnt resonate that much ? Well, he's a good speaker, seems to be an honest person and true to socialist values. However it might be because the current landscape is simply geared towards the far right which is the wave that has been flooding all elections worldwide.
If we add all polling numbers of parties from LO to the PS/Greens, they add up to 29% with 6 candidates. With 5 candidates, the right is at 44% (including far right totalling 31% with 2 candidates...) That is with me putting Macron in the center where he isnt really.
It's just how it is. We have to bear with it until the pendulum swings back. Eventually
i haven't been keeping up on French politics, is the Right gonna take control?
Nah the maths is not that simple unfortunately.the green/socialist/communist voters could have put Melenchon over the top
Now a runoff between two right wing candidates
Some voters in the far left could easily switch to the far right because they hate Macron. Some Greens/PS voters could switch to Macron because they are social-democrats rather than socialists.
And if we play that game, if not for Zemmour or Dupont-Aignan, Le Pen could have get 10 more points too.
Melenchon did +9% in a month, his campaign is a W definitely.
One could say Macron is not a centrist and in that case, the right was already in control. If your question is about Le Pen then no I don't think she has a real chance this year.
IMO, the real danger will be in 5 years as Macron will not be eligible and Melenchon will be 76 (I thought he was already too old for this election). Then, Le Pen will be the candidate with the most brand recognition and political experience and I do think she will be the favorite
One could say Macron is not a centrist and in that case, the right was already in control. If your question is about Le Pen then no I don't think she has a real chance this year.
IMO, the real danger will be in 5 years as Macron will not be eligible and Melenchon will be 76 (I thought he was already too old for this election). Then, Le Pen will be the candidate with the most brand recognition and political experience and I do think she will be the favorite
ty for the on the ground breakdown.
