The France Thread: Oui Oui, Bonbons and all that bad stuff 🇫🇷

[mitter]

One could say Macron is not a centrist and in that case, the right was already in control. If your question is about Le Pen then no I don't think she has a real chance this year.

IMO, the real danger will be in 5 years as Macron will not be eligible and Melenchon will be 76 (I thought he was already too old for this election). Then, Le Pen will be the candidate with the most brand recognition and political experience and I do think she will be the favorite

Isn’t Edouard Philippe very popular and basically waiting in the wings for the next election?

I expect him to replace Macron as the dominant center-right figure

 

[mitter]

Nah the maths is not that simple unfortunately.

Some voters in the far left could easily switch to the far right because they hate Macron. Some Greens/PS voters could switch to Macron because they are social-democrats rather than socialists.

And if we play that game, if not for Zemmour or Dupont-Aignan, Le Pen could have get 10 more points too.

Melenchon did +9% in a month, his campaign is a W definitely.

it’s a nice showing, but it continues the trend (in several countries) of the left being happy to make some noise and exceed expectations. When will that progress translate to having a legitimate chance to win and govern?

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

Macron should be fine

 

[Cuban Pete]

If Le Pen pulls a Trump and wins against all odds yall know thats pretty much the end of the EU/NATO as we know it. Would lead to Frexit and accelerate Germany re arming itself into a military powerhouse dolo, and probably leave Ukraine along with the Baltics and the rest of Eastern Europe as food for Russias barbarian hordes. This is a hugely important election, shes a blatant Russian plant, look up her comments on the Ukraine war. And the French are tired of Macron playing international mediator and view him as a leader of Paris only, not the rest of the country. Wouldnt be surprised if Vlad gets the puters putin in a close election and we see 2016 redux in Elysee

 

[CASHAPP]

One could say Macron is not a centrist and in that case, the right was already in control. If your question is about Le Pen then no I don't think she has a real chance this year.

IMO, the real danger will be in 5 years as Macron will not be eligible and Melenchon will be 76 (I thought he was already too old for this election). Then, Le Pen will be the candidate with the most brand recognition and political experience and I do think she will be the favorite

you really think she would run a 4th time if she loses again?

 

[Liu Kang]

After 90% votes, estimates put Le Pen at 23%, Melenchon at 22.2%... Can he do it ?

 

[Liu Kang]

you really think she would run a 4th time if she loses again?

Yes, it doesnt matter how many times she lost, as long as she is the head of her party, she'll run. She's the best candidate the French far right will ever have.

 

[Liu Kang]

Isn’t Edouard Philippe very popular and basically waiting in the wings for the next election?

I expect him to replace Macron as the dominant center-right figure

He's a likeable dude but he was the prime minister diring the Gilets Jaunes protests and people will remember that. I too think he will be next after Macron in the center right space but his brand has a long way to go.

 

[Liu Kang]

it’s a nice showing, but it continues the trend (in several countries) of the left being happy to make some noise and exceed expectations. When will that progress translate to having a legitimate chance to win and govern?

It takes time for the pendulum to swing back I think. The left will possibly have a real chance once the current far right wave in Europe start to fade but for now it's about building off minor victories as mucj as possible

 

[88m3]

After 90% votes, estimates put Le Pen at 23%, Melenchon at 22.2%... Can he do it ?

that would be something!

 

[mitter]

So it looks like the final result has Le Pen with 23.4% and Melenchon with 22.0%. That corresponds to a margin of about 500,000 votes.

It was much closer than the polls suggested, and also closer than the projections after the polls closed. It’s good to see a strong finish with momentum, but painful to come so close only to fall short.

 

[Liu Kang]

If Le Pen pulls a Trump and wins against all odds yall know thats pretty much the end of the EU/NATO as we know it. Would lead to Frexit and accelerate Germany re arming itself into a military powerhouse dolo, and probably leave Ukraine along with the Baltics and the rest of Eastern Europe as food for Russias barbarian hordes. This is a hugely important election, shes a blatant Russian plant, look up her comments on the Ukraine war. And the French are tired of Macron playing international mediator and view him as a leader of Paris only, not the rest of the country. Wouldnt be surprised if Vlad gets the puters putin in a close election and we see 2016 redux in Elysee

There's only two weeks before the run off so not enough time to make a crucial change in the campaign. Macron will most likely angle his campaign on her ties with Putin to make it bad for her though I'm not sure it matters that much now.

Regarding Macron, it's important to note that France currently has the presidency of Europe so Macron has to be at the front of the Ukraine conflict. And true, France has always been very centralized so that President of Paris criticism has existed for ever to be honest.

 

[Kunty McPhuck]

you really think she would run a 4th time if she loses again?

She'll continue to do it to make up for Daddy's failure of not making it.

 

[BigMoneyGrip]

Isn’t Le Pen a Putin asset? Don’t her campaign owe a Moscow bank money?

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

Why can't the French deep state indict people around Le Pen for being a counter intelligence threat?