The France Thread: Oui Oui, Bonbons and all that bad stuff 🇫🇷

[hashmander]

Isn’t Le Pen a Putin asset? Don’t her campaign owe a Moscow bank money?

yeah but that doesn't matter to them. we have putin assets in the republican party who will win elections. once their support is entrenched they can almost do no wrong. their "wrongs" are a part of their appeal, they are bucking the status quo.

 

[Liu Kang]

She'll continue to do it to make up for Daddy's failure of not making it.

By all accounts, Le Pen making the run off was a huge W for the far right and a catastrophe for the left. Watch the first few minutes, pure shock


And look at the Le Pen all gleeful


Le Pen was never winning in 2002, the probability was litterally 0 and they knew that.

 

[Liu Kang]

Isn’t Le Pen a Putin asset? Don’t her campaign owe a Moscow bank money?

Before 2017, it was not illegal to receive money from a foreign state and she indeed still owes money from this. I don't if you can qualifiy her as an asset because she really has no power. But yeah she still owes money from that to a Russian bank.

Regarding financing, a candidate can still get money from foreign institutions if they are in the EU and for this campaign, she was financed by an Hungarian bank close to Orban.

Why can't the French deep state indict people around Le Pen for being a counter intelligence threat?

From what evidence ? She isn't in power and has access to nothing that is classified. She just is an elected Deputy in the lower house.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

 

[Cuban Pete]

There's only two weeks before the run off so not enough time to make a crucial change in the campaign. Macron will most likely angle his campaign on her ties with Putin to make it bad for her though I'm not sure it matters that much now.

Regarding Macron, it's important to note that France currently has the presidency of Europe so Macron has to be at the front of the Ukraine conflict. And true, France has always been very centralized so that President of Paris criticism has existed for ever to be honest.

So is he going to sweep her again? or are the run off polls closer than they should be. How is France protecting against election interference? Im genuinely concerned the Russians will meddle in this election HEAVY to get the results they want

 

[Liu Kang]

So is he going to sweep her again? or are the run off polls closer than they should be. How is France protecting against election interference? Im genuinely concerned the Russians will meddle in this election HEAVY to get the results they want

They already meddled in 2017 and to be honest, I'm not mad at it. We meddled in theirs, they do the same

Financing is more regulated in French elections than in the US and doesnt have that much impact on the result. What you can spend is capped and things have been way harder following Sarkozy frauding in 2012. Basically, the total expense is equal for all candidates : 16M in the first round, 22M for the runoff.

If you spend more than the cap, you will get taxed 100% on the surplus so it's not worth it. Any foreign spending going for a candidate can be reintegrated in the overall campaign spending of said candidate by the campaign commission...

And all of this needs to be properly done because the state refund half of the whole spending if you score more than 5% and the spending is validated. Otherwise it only refunds 5%

However that refund is conditioned to proper accounting and everything get checked by the commission. It's not perfect but for example, Sarkozy got 0 refund when he frauded last time and almost crashed his party. Pecresse just ended up with 4.8% and she's now 4M in debt

Macron will not wash Le Pen but it's Macron's to lose really. I expect a score like 53/47. Still too close to comfort but with enough margin for some confidence IMO.

 

[mitter]

So it looks like the final result has Le Pen with 23.4% and Melenchon with 22.0%. That corresponds to a margin of about 500,000 votes.

It was much closer than the polls suggested, and also closer than the projections after the polls closed. It’s good to see a strong finish with momentum, but painful to come so close only to fall short.

The numbers were updated again for some reason

Now it is Le Pen with 23.1% and 8,136,369 votes and Mélenchon with 22.0% and 7,714,949


Less than 422,000 votes

 

[Liu Kang]

The numbers were updated again for some reason

Now it is Le Pen with 23.1% and 8,136,369 votes and Mélenchon with 22.0% and 7,714,949


Less than 422,000 votes

Don't be disappointed that much about it. It may not appear so but one point is huge in a first round with 12 candidates.

I'm thinking the reason polls were not that accurate is that Melenchon performed extremely well in the carribeans which probably offset some poll numbers that may be to mainland centric though his dynamic was accurately measured.

 

[Liu Kang]

Some infographics tha may interest you guys

Party leaders call to vote in the runoff
Prez - Ceux ui appellent - Infogram

Voting by age
Prez - Age 2 - Infogram

Voting by salary
Prez - salaires - Infogram

Votinf by party affiliation
Parti 2 - Infogram

From here : Présidentielle : 10 infographies qui éclairent les résultats du premier tour

 

[mitter]

Don't be disappointed that much about it. It may not appear so but one point is huge in a first round with 12 candidates.

I'm thinking the reason polls were not that accurate is that Melenchon performed extremely well in the carribeans which probably offset some poll numbers that may be to mainland centric though his dynamic was accurately measured.

Yeah.

I am also guessing that a lot of left-of-center voters who weren't huge fans of Melenchon and preferred other candidates switched to him at the last second since he was the only one who seemed to have a chance to make it to the second round.

Anyway, from his speech on election night, it sounded like this was Melenchon's last time around running for President. Who's got next in LFI?

 

[Liu Kang]

Yeah.

I am also guessing that a lot of left-of-center voters who weren't huge fans of Melenchon and preferred other candidates switched to him at the last second since he was the only one who seemed to have a chance to make it to the second round.

He did take a lot of votes from Greens and PS indeed.

Anyway, from his speech on election night, it sounded like this was Melenchon's last time around running for President. Who's got next in LFI?

It's complicated. He was the founder and the main man andalso a charismatic speaker. He had a proper brand to him which other LFI heads do not. I'm seeing names of Aurélie Trouvé or François Ruffin but they are not on Melenchon's level and far from it.

There are also plenty of young politicians (in their 30s lol) that seem to have next. We'll probably know more about it in the next months.

 

[mitter]

 

[Liu Kang]

Last rolling daily polls still around the same with 53 or 54% for Macron.

 

[Piff Perkins]

Sounds like Macron will win but I hope France doesn’t get complacent. This is literally the worst time to elect a Russian agent. I’m blown away she received a loan from Russian banks and is still here.

 

[thatrapsfan]

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