Horn of Africa Regional Thread

[2Quik4UHoes]

Looks like the Ethiopian army’s advance may already be stalling.

They prolly gonna bomb the shyt outta them before advancing from the south. If I understand correctly, Mekelle is located at a higher elevation which obviously gives them advantage defensively. I think this is gonna end by the end of the week fr.

If they launch strikes at Asmara again or even Addis then that’s when it’ll be clear their time is running low and they need to get desperate to get more international intervention to save them.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

What’s interesting is that the conflict has shades of many other conflicts. It has similarities to the U.S. Civil War in that the crux of the situation is states(regional rights) vs federal rights and which is the correct set up. Ethiopia has been a quasi confederacy for nearly 30 years but it was a federation only in that the confederated states agreed to federal Union so long as robust states rights are maintained.

Then it plays on aspects of the Spanish Civil War in its extreme partisanship and all of the different chaotic elements within that have their own objectives. For example, the spat between Eritrean and Tigrayans partly began as a clash of political thought back in the 60s. Where I’d say it does differ is that there isn’t the same political maturity across the national landscape imo. You don’t have Oromo Shane brehs advocating for anarchy for example.

But the scary potential of the conflicts reads like a mix between Syria, Rwanda, the Soviet/Nazi eastern front, and the DRC/CAR. Ethiopian society is intermixed and has been for centuries. Part of the flaw in the TPLF’s formula was that it didn’t take this into account at all. The results have already been seen with ethnic based killings happening throughout the country. A full blown collapse or even weakening of the federal govt can cause mass displacement and ethnic cleansing through the country. Making it a larger scale Rwanda/CAR.

A collapsed govt would also bring rise to many more militias and terrorist organizations would have a much easier time destabilizing the HOA region. Much of Ethiopia’s resource wealth is still untapped so this would draw the attention of international crime syndicates and rebel juntas from the region bringing a DRC like component to it.

But the actual fighting itself, due to the racial doctrine taught over the years and the fact that the fighting will be ethnic based since TPLF’s fighters are Tigray by and large. There are very harsh feelings in the rest of the country towards the Tigray because of the TPLF’s actions throughout the years. So in this sense, it reminds me somewhat of the Eastern front between the Soviets and Nazis. In many ways, this is a crescendo to a centuries long struggle between the Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo for supremacy. During the mid-late 19th century is the last time the Tigrayans were in power under Emperor Yohannes IV, widely considered a national hero. But even then, his authority was challenged by Menelik and other regents in the area. That struggle between the Tigrayan branch of the crown, the Amhara branch, and the periphery kingdoms such as the Oromo, Afar, and Somali was never resolved. Authoritarian rule bottled that up, by Abiy’s ambitions reforms changed that.

Abiy represents the idea of a United Ethiopia with no regards to ethnicity and the TPLF represent the idea of ethnic groups having greater self determination and a rejection of a unified Ethiopia as it historically represented the dominance of the Amharas and a negation of Tigrays and other groups. What’s clear is that enough has happened and has been learned to create a more perfect Ethiopian Union. From the recognition of minority groups and an expansion of the national culture to effective, pragmatic ways to speed up development and ensure that everyone has a stake in the country.

 

[thatrapsfan]

looks like major breakthroughs on battlefield and that @2Quik4UHoes prediction will materialize soon.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

looks like major breakthroughs on battlefield and that @2Quik4UHoes prediction will materialize soon.

Yeah, it’s only a matter of time fr. The closer they get the more desperate they might get so Addis and Asmara should be on high alert for potential attacks.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

Tigray’s War Against Ethiopia Isn’t About Autonomy. It’s About Economic Power.

 

[ill]

Ethiopia PM gives Tigray forces 72 hours to surrender regional capital

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed gave Tigrayan regional forces 72 hours to surrender before the military begins an offensive on the regional capital of Mekelle.

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

shyt looks like it’s coming to a head. In 3 days Mekelle is gonna be shelled from all angles.

UN insiders have been commenting that while the bulk of the heavy artillery and ground troops have sped through to avoid urban warfare, the paramilitaries and irregular militias charged with holding territory has had some trouble which can make the rear guard and supply lines vulnerable to guerillas attacks.

I also gotta ask for a pardon from my fellow HL brehs. I got caught up in the jingoism out of fear for my loved ones and because I’ve always been vehemently against the ethnic federal system which I view to be segregationist and racist in nature. That’s no reason to feed into biases. My position is still the same I think the TPLF are a criminal element that inflamed ethnic tensions through a system of divide and rule. But there are definitely some legitimate concerns brought up by the other side, and frankly I don’t know what Abiy’s end game really is. One single party isn’t exactly what I’d call robust politics.

I think what’s abundantly clear to me tho, is that the political immaturity of Ethiopia and to a larger extent, the Horn/East Africa is one of the primary weaknesses that keep the region unstable. My hope is that Abiy or whoever ends up running things begins a strong grassroots political education campaign and outlaw political parties that are ethnically based. Ethiopians need to have their political disagreements come from differences of political principles and not from what ethnic group you are from. Without doing that, Abiy will reflexively turn the state into an autocratic one because it’s the only system people have real experience in that doesn’t cause things to become combustible.

 

[dtownreppin214]

Man this reckless witch loves her some TPLF. Glad she's not getting the state dept job, she would destabilizing things even further.

 

[thatrapsfan]

Yahoo is now a part of Verizon Media

Hard to say its not an ethnic war, when you do the things in bold.

- Outsiders move in -
With fighting having subsided in the west of Tigray, government officials are seeking to reimpose order in Humera.

The strategy appears to be to erase TPLF control partly by bringing administrators in from the neighbouring Amhara region, a move that risks inflaming ethnic tensions.

Throughout much of the west, federal soldiers are scarcely seen, instead security is maintained by Amhara's uniformed "special forces".

Civil servants have also arrived from Amhara to take over the administration of some Tigrayan towns and cities.

Daniel Wubet, an Amhara tourism official in a tracksuit and vest said he was in Humera to oversee "peacekeeping", procure basic necessities for the population and "educate" them on the TPLF's bad deeds.

Daniel, who had a Kalashnikov slung from his shoulder, has co-opted some local Tigrayans into the rebuilding exercise, among them Tewodros.

"They said I haven't done anything wrong and that I'm a pure Ethiopian," Tewodros explained of his appointment.

The presence of Amhara officials and soldiers will fuel fears of an occupation among Tigrayans, who are mired in a decades-old dispute over land that has, in the past, sparked violent clashes and continues to be a dangerous flashpoint.

Abrehu Fentahum, an elderly Amhara farmer living in western Tigray, said he looked forward to the land being returned to Amhara control, even though Daniel and others stress that this is not their goal.

"As long as I can remember, this land belonged to Amhara," until 1991 when "it was taken by the TPLF," he said.

Already, visible traces of the TPLF are being expunged, its banners replaced by the green, yellow and red imperial-era flag of Amhara nationalism that now flies high at checkpoints and town squares.

These symbols will not allay Tigrayan fears of occupation, nor will the word "Amhara" scrawled on shuttered storefronts like a hastily graffitied claim of ownership.

Speaking to AFP by text message, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael warned the presence of Amhara administrators and fighters would only prolong the conflict.

"This is one of their evil plans to weaken Tigray," he said.

"We'll continue to fight until they are cleared from all places."

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

Man this reckless witch loves her some TPLF. Glad she's not getting the state dept job, she would destabilizing things even further.

Can’t stand her ass

Yahoo is now a part of Verizon Media

Hard to say its not an ethnic war, when you do the things in bold.

- Outsiders move in -
With fighting having subsided in the west of Tigray, government officials are seeking to reimpose order in Humera.

The strategy appears to be to erase TPLF control partly by bringing administrators in from the neighbouring Amhara region, a move that risks inflaming ethnic tensions.

Throughout much of the west, federal soldiers are scarcely seen, instead security is maintained by Amhara's uniformed "special forces".

Civil servants have also arrived from Amhara to take over the administration of some Tigrayan towns and cities.

Daniel Wubet, an Amhara tourism official in a tracksuit and vest said he was in Humera to oversee "peacekeeping", procure basic necessities for the population and "educate" them on the TPLF's bad deeds.

Daniel, who had a Kalashnikov slung from his shoulder, has co-opted some local Tigrayans into the rebuilding exercise, among them Tewodros.

"They said I haven't done anything wrong and that I'm a pure Ethiopian," Tewodros explained of his appointment.

The presence of Amhara officials and soldiers will fuel fears of an occupation among Tigrayans, who are mired in a decades-old dispute over land that has, in the past, sparked violent clashes and continues to be a dangerous flashpoint.

Abrehu Fentahum, an elderly Amhara farmer living in western Tigray, said he looked forward to the land being returned to Amhara control, even though Daniel and others stress that this is not their goal.

"As long as I can remember, this land belonged to Amhara," until 1991 when "it was taken by the TPLF," he said.

Already, visible traces of the TPLF are being expunged, its banners replaced by the green, yellow and red imperial-era flag of Amhara nationalism that now flies high at checkpoints and town squares.

These symbols will not allay Tigrayan fears of occupation, nor will the word "Amhara" scrawled on shuttered storefronts like a hastily graffitied claim of ownership.

Speaking to AFP by text message, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael warned the presence of Amhara administrators and fighters would only prolong the conflict.

"This is one of their evil plans to weaken Tigray," he said.

"We'll continue to fight until they are cleared from all places."

Yeah I’m not so sure about that. There are Tigrayans that are against the TPLF so I don’t see why they aren’t the ones taking administrative positions. I can understand the militias because many of the militias in Tigray are prolly aligned with the TPLF.

But this is what I didn’t want to see. Amharas have no business going there. Getting back land taken from them is one thing but this isn’t right at all and totally feeds into the TPLF’s arguments of a return to centralized Amhara dominated control. Can’t lie, as the weeks have passed I’ve begun to have some slight doubts about the Abiy side as well. I’m still against the TPLF and think they gotta go but I can’t tell what the end game is.

 

[thatrapsfan]

First tweet of Bidens National Security Adviser on any issue @FAH1223 @Trajan @2Quik4UHoes

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

First tweet of Bidens National Security Adviser on any issue @FAH1223 @Trajan @2Quik4UHoes

This has gotten very interesting in the closing hours. An AJE report said that the UN Security Council has had their first discussions in private regarding the conflict.

A lot more of the major players with stakes in the HOA region might begin to throw their weight around diplomatically. Too many development projects and military interests for them to stay on the sidelines forever. Abiy and his govt have already stated that they aren’t stopping and that outsiders should stop meddling and they’ll ask for help should they need it (not verbatim but basically what their position is) so both sides have dug their heels in and this looks like it’s going to be a disaster.

 

[Trajan]

First tweet of Bidens National Security Adviser on any issue @FAH1223 @Trajan @2Quik4UHoes

Same tone as Susan Rice

 

[2Quik4UHoes]

The issue is that it’s an existential threat for both sides. To the TPLF aside from their obvious needs to avoid prosecution, their supporters also argue that this is an attempt to destroy the individual freedoms and autonomy of all the other ethnic groups. Despite its flaws, there are many that like the system.

For Abiy, the very obvious challenges to his authority cannot be ignored. Moreover, the TPLF have run themselves like a political mafia for years. So the actual issue of law is at play as well. Not to mention, the ethnic federal system is in many ways a quasi-segregationist model with hostility being practiced by various groups against the other.

This was a showdown that was bound to happen the moment Meles and the TPLF got into power and honestly I can’t see how it can end diplomatically. To negotiate now would be to legitimize the TPLF and embolden other groups which would still leave Ethiopia in a dangerous place. Abiy and the TPLF both painted themselves into a corner with no way out.

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

‘A race against time’: Sudan struggles with refugee influx from Ethiopia’s Tigray region