so this TPLF is just going after everybody
that sounds dumb as fukk. are they gonna get smoked by two different governments?
Horn of Africa Regional Thread
- Thread starter thatrapsfan
- Start date
that sounds dumb as fukk. are they gonna get smoked by two different governments?
so this TPLF is just going after everybody
that sounds dumb as fukk. are they gonna get smoked by two different governments?
Eritrea is their mortal enemies so they’re dragging them in for siding with Ethiopia. The TPLF weren’t involved in talks with Eritrea (which I think is one of Abiy’s mistakes, however they easily could’ve obstructed on that like everything else) so as far as their concerned the once cold border war that was ceased almost 20 years ago is potentially hot again.
RadaMillz
Superstar
WTF is wrong with TPLF? 
why would you start war on all fronts when you don't have the number nor the resources to defeat all of them?
40 million oromos pissed
Amharas eager to invade the tigray region and get even
and now their cousins and mortal enemies Eritrea? that's straight up kamikaze
and oh yeah we somalis never forgot the reign of terror under meles zenawi
why would you start war on all fronts when you don't have the number nor the resources to defeat all of them?
40 million oromos pissed
Amharas eager to invade the tigray region and get even
and now their cousins and mortal enemies Eritrea? that's straight up kamikaze
and oh yeah we somalis never forgot the reign of terror under meles zenawi
thatrapsfan
Superstar
Oromo nationalists are indirectly allied with TPLF now.WTF is wrong with TPLF?
why would you start war on all fronts when you don't have the number nor the resources to defeat all of them?
40 million oromos pissed
Amharas eager to invade the tigray region and get even
and now their cousins and mortal enemies Eritrea? that's straight up kamikaze
and oh yeah we somalis never forgot the reign of terror under meles zenawi
I think Abiy wanted the conflict and opportunity to crush TPLF as much as they wanted the fight. But I don’t see how you can crush a party that the majority of the regions population supports. Maybe militarily they can be defeated but I don’t see how it’ll be simple or clean.
Trajan
Veteran
Oromo nationalists are indirectly allied with TPLF now.
I think Abiy wanted the conflict and opportunity to crush TPLF as much as they wanted the fight. But I don’t see how you can crush a party that the majority of the regions population supports. Maybe militarily they can be defeated but I don’t see how it’ll be simple or clean.
It's going to be a bloodbath if one of them doesn't blink first.
Oromo nationalists are indirectly allied with TPLF now.
I think Abiy wanted the conflict and opportunity to crush TPLF as much as they wanted the fight. But I don’t see how you can crush a party that the majority of the regions population supports. Maybe militarily they can be defeated but I don’t see how it’ll be simple or clean.
I’m actually doubtful about how much genuine support the TPLF has among everyday Tigrayans. Perhaps the ones that have benefited and got rich but the everyday people aren’t really for this shyt. Tigray region is piss poor but those officials live lavish lives. One of the biggest reasons why Ethiopia is so short on foreign currency is because those stooges siphoned it off to accounts in the West due to their control of the banks.
TPLF is pure scum fr, I won’t even waste a line on Oromo nationalists. Same dikkheads that Meles double crossed and crushed when they wanted their lil Oromia delusions to come true.
ADevilYouKhow
Rhyme Reason
Trump could step in personally and be peacemaker?
Nah, we don’t want that dirty cracker involved at all
I’m sure he’ll try to score a foreign policy point and tell Egypt to bomb us all.
could be 0-3 after israel-palestine, north-south korea and now this
thatrapsfan
Superstar
I think its likely the population will view this through an ethnic prism, when Amhara militas are fighting side-by-side with the army. Tons of photos/videos of irregular, non-uniformed fighters with AKs marching with ENDF in media.
Thats my fear if this isn’t resolved quickly. It’s already threatening to turn into that as you said. Each ethnic state has militias so naturally Amhara militias are going in after the massacre in Mai Cadra. I really hope the govt is doing it’s best to help Tigrays but whose to say? I’m not exactly a huge Abiy supporter so I don’t know what measures have been taken to help the citizens given his failures to stop ethnic attacks in other areas.
If it’s contained to the North and done quickly then it’ll be manageable. The moment this spreads south to the capital and beyond is when it’ll become a very very big problem. As far as I know, TPLF’s supply route to the West is cut so they’re on borrowed time. Their last course of action might be to escape through Afar to Djibouti and then Somaliland to UAE.
Anybody care to give a cliffnotes version of what this conflict is about? Can't say I know too much about African politics but here's hoping for the least violent solution possible
I guess I'll add this to the list of terrible things going on in 2020
I guess I'll add this to the list of terrible things going on in 2020
could be 0-3 after israel-palestine, north-south korea and now this
@acri1 @KidJSoul
Tl:dr, Make it plain: Dictator oppresses, Rebels fought for power, rebels win, country splits into two, rebels in the old country stole and oppressed people for decades, during those decades they went to war with their former brothers in arms and became mortal enemies in the process despite sharing the closest of ethnic ties, protests from different ethnic groups brought new PM (Abiy) to power, PM made reforms which sidelined and reduced the power of former rulers, new PM makes peace with former rulers enemies across the border and concedes land, former rulers are pissed off and retreat to their region and begin obstructing reform process and inflaming tensions, elections postponed due to Covid, former rulers hold elections anyway, both sides deem the other illegal, former rulers attack federal military base, new PM declares state of emergency and is currently closing in on the criminal threat. Former rebels launch missiles into former enemies territory in a desperate attempt to turn the cold border war hot again.
Tl:dr, Make it plain: Dictator oppresses, Rebels fought for power, rebels win, country splits into two, rebels in the old country stole and oppressed people for decades, during those decades they went to war with their former brothers in arms and became mortal enemies in the process despite sharing the closest of ethnic ties, protests from different ethnic groups brought new PM (Abiy) to power, PM made reforms which sidelined and reduced the power of former rulers, new PM makes peace with former rulers enemies across the border and concedes land, former rulers are pissed off and retreat to their region and begin obstructing reform process and inflaming tensions, elections postponed due to Covid, former rulers hold elections anyway, both sides deem the other illegal, former rulers attack federal military base, new PM declares state of emergency and is currently closing in on the criminal threat. Former rebels launch missiles into former enemies territory in a desperate attempt to turn the cold border war hot again.
Cliff notes(hard to do without leaving out important points for context):
Back in the 70s and 80s, Eritrean independence fighters (EPLF-Eritrean People’s Liberation Front/Isaias Afewerki-current president since independence in the 90s) combined with Tigrayan based independence fighters (TPLF-Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front/former PM Meles Zenawi whom passed away from an illness), Amhara militias against Mengistu, and Oromo independence militias (OLF-Shane) combined to eventually overthrow the communist dictatorship in the early 90s. After being overthrown, Col. Mengistu Haile Mariam escaped to Zimbabwe where he lives today, the former dictator predicts that the TPLF will one day tear the country apart starting with Eritrea.
The EPLF go on to establish Eritrea and Ethiopia becomes landlocked, TPLF takes control of the Ethiopian state. Beforehand, they promised the OLF (Oromo militias) a similar setup to Eritrea with their own land called Oromia but later double crossed and stomped out theirs and any separatist movements including prison, torture, media censorship, extra judicial killings, etc.
TPLF/Meles create a ethno-nationalist based system on the grounds of ethnic/linguistic demographics. This was argued as being a system which gave ethnic groups more authority and freedom including respect of other groups and cultures. In truth, it was a clever system of divide and rule which made managing the different groups easy. Two generation of Ethiopians were taught tribe over nation and created more radicalized youths willing to kill their neighbor because of ethnicity
Meles and Isaias began to feud over territorial rights and dragged Ethiopia and Eritrea into a bloody border war. After the ceasefire, the TPLF maintained hostilities and a 20 year cold war split apart families and communities. Mass deportations of longtime Eritreans citizens in Ethiopia and Ethiopian citizens in Eritrea solidified the state of no war no peace
TPLF went on to loot much of the resources and land including a great deal of foreign currency. This was all while Ethiopia saw among the most rapid economic growth in the world. But vulnerable tribes had their land sold to foreign nations by Tigrayan elites while the people had no redress. The Hunter gatherer societies of the Omo valley being among their many victims. The death of Meles Zenawi (the architect of the dam project as well as an efficient police state apparatus) weakened the power of the TPLF as their leader was now gone and difficult to replace which began their downward spiral. The TPLF then installed the puppet PM Desalgn from one of the smaller tribes in the south to appease groups grumbling about the overly Tigrayan character of leadership while attempting to maintain the police state. Amhara and Oromo youths unite in mass protests which hadn’t been seen for years in the country. The TPLF’s hand is forced by the civil rest which bring in Abiy as a transitional leader, but by now the Tigray area has become a highly militarized region due to the history of the wars with Eritrea hosting a sizable portion of Ethiopia’s heavy artillery and missiles as well as a militia and paramilitary force rumored to be around 250,000 as well as having controlled the economy and military for years which kept them both very wealthy and very powerful and very prepared for potential war.
Abiy’s reforms essentially triggered things. He’s a product of the TPLF apparatus itself as a former soldier and intelligence officer. There are investigations being conducted into stolen funds and shady corruption of the TPLF regime and this gave Tigray elites a feeling of persecution which TPLF sold to its people as an attack on them all. The peace in Eritrea was the second major trigger. The TPLF wasn’t involved in the peace talks despite the border conflict directly involving them. This could be seen as one of Abiy’s main errors however there’s no evidence to suggest that the TPLF were good faith actors in the talks nor is there evidence that they attempted to participate at all. Nevertheless, the peace with Eritrea meant land concessions that were beyond what the TPLF could accept.
The final straws came when Abiy dissolved the old EPRDF (Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front) which is the name of the ethnonationalist based system which the TPLF and Meles created in exchange for the “Prosperity Party” which is an attempt to introduce a non ethnic based political system which allows membership for all regardless of ethnicity and presents a Unitarian approach vs an ethnic based one. All groups except for the TPLF joined the new coalition which further alienated them. By this point, their power and influence on a national level was crushed considerably so they retreated to their regional capital of Mekele and began provocative actions to defy Abiy’s authority.
Elections were supposed to be held this year but were held off due to Covid. TPLF saw this as an attempt by Abiy to extend his mandate. Bear in mind, Abiy is a transitional leader and still has to face the electoral process. In defiance of Abiy’s call to postpone elections, the TPLF carried out elections in Tigray and naturally won in a 100% landslide. Abiy called their elections illegitimate and declared the TPLF illegal, the TPLF did the same saying Abiy’s mandate officially ended on September 15th and there’s currently a constitutional crisis. Federal govt cut off the whole Tigray region from the budget and dissolve their govt and pull their terrorist card.
The final straw came when TPLF forces conducted a sneak attack on the Ethiopian army’s northern command in Tigray region in an attempt to steal weapons and force soldiers to defect. Abiy declares a state of emergency and vows to eliminate the criminal element. But with a generation that’s been taught false narratives and fascist ideals, the TPLF have many fault lines they can exploit to foment further chaos in the country. Their strategy is scorched earth and the longer Abiy let’s this linger the worse this conflict becomes.
Nominally, this is a regional proxy war between Ethiopia and Egypt via the TPLF over the Nile as the TPLF had foreign benefactors during their struggles and were always the obvious ally in Egypt’s quest to maintain Nile hegemony. But majority of this has to do with 30 years of criminality finally being answered for and rather than quietly retiring with the millions they stole from Ethiopian banks and industries they’d rather wage war and bring all of their people down with them.
Back in the 70s and 80s, Eritrean independence fighters (EPLF-Eritrean People’s Liberation Front/Isaias Afewerki-current president since independence in the 90s) combined with Tigrayan based independence fighters (TPLF-Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front/former PM Meles Zenawi whom passed away from an illness), Amhara militias against Mengistu, and Oromo independence militias (OLF-Shane) combined to eventually overthrow the communist dictatorship in the early 90s. After being overthrown, Col. Mengistu Haile Mariam escaped to Zimbabwe where he lives today, the former dictator predicts that the TPLF will one day tear the country apart starting with Eritrea.
The EPLF go on to establish Eritrea and Ethiopia becomes landlocked, TPLF takes control of the Ethiopian state. Beforehand, they promised the OLF (Oromo militias) a similar setup to Eritrea with their own land called Oromia but later double crossed and stomped out theirs and any separatist movements including prison, torture, media censorship, extra judicial killings, etc.
TPLF/Meles create a ethno-nationalist based system on the grounds of ethnic/linguistic demographics. This was argued as being a system which gave ethnic groups more authority and freedom including respect of other groups and cultures. In truth, it was a clever system of divide and rule which made managing the different groups easy. Two generation of Ethiopians were taught tribe over nation and created more radicalized youths willing to kill their neighbor because of ethnicity
Meles and Isaias began to feud over territorial rights and dragged Ethiopia and Eritrea into a bloody border war. After the ceasefire, the TPLF maintained hostilities and a 20 year cold war split apart families and communities. Mass deportations of longtime Eritreans citizens in Ethiopia and Ethiopian citizens in Eritrea solidified the state of no war no peace
TPLF went on to loot much of the resources and land including a great deal of foreign currency. This was all while Ethiopia saw among the most rapid economic growth in the world. But vulnerable tribes had their land sold to foreign nations by Tigrayan elites while the people had no redress. The Hunter gatherer societies of the Omo valley being among their many victims. The death of Meles Zenawi (the architect of the dam project as well as an efficient police state apparatus) weakened the power of the TPLF as their leader was now gone and difficult to replace which began their downward spiral. The TPLF then installed the puppet PM Desalgn from one of the smaller tribes in the south to appease groups grumbling about the overly Tigrayan character of leadership while attempting to maintain the police state. Amhara and Oromo youths unite in mass protests which hadn’t been seen for years in the country. The TPLF’s hand is forced by the civil rest which bring in Abiy as a transitional leader, but by now the Tigray area has become a highly militarized region due to the history of the wars with Eritrea hosting a sizable portion of Ethiopia’s heavy artillery and missiles as well as a militia and paramilitary force rumored to be around 250,000 as well as having controlled the economy and military for years which kept them both very wealthy and very powerful and very prepared for potential war.
Abiy’s reforms essentially triggered things. He’s a product of the TPLF apparatus itself as a former soldier and intelligence officer. There are investigations being conducted into stolen funds and shady corruption of the TPLF regime and this gave Tigray elites a feeling of persecution which TPLF sold to its people as an attack on them all. The peace in Eritrea was the second major trigger. The TPLF wasn’t involved in the peace talks despite the border conflict directly involving them. This could be seen as one of Abiy’s main errors however there’s no evidence to suggest that the TPLF were good faith actors in the talks nor is there evidence that they attempted to participate at all. Nevertheless, the peace with Eritrea meant land concessions that were beyond what the TPLF could accept.
The final straws came when Abiy dissolved the old EPRDF (Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front) which is the name of the ethnonationalist based system which the TPLF and Meles created in exchange for the “Prosperity Party” which is an attempt to introduce a non ethnic based political system which allows membership for all regardless of ethnicity and presents a Unitarian approach vs an ethnic based one. All groups except for the TPLF joined the new coalition which further alienated them. By this point, their power and influence on a national level was crushed considerably so they retreated to their regional capital of Mekele and began provocative actions to defy Abiy’s authority.
Elections were supposed to be held this year but were held off due to Covid. TPLF saw this as an attempt by Abiy to extend his mandate. Bear in mind, Abiy is a transitional leader and still has to face the electoral process. In defiance of Abiy’s call to postpone elections, the TPLF carried out elections in Tigray and naturally won in a 100% landslide. Abiy called their elections illegitimate and declared the TPLF illegal, the TPLF did the same saying Abiy’s mandate officially ended on September 15th and there’s currently a constitutional crisis. Federal govt cut off the whole Tigray region from the budget and dissolve their govt and pull their terrorist card.
The final straw came when TPLF forces conducted a sneak attack on the Ethiopian army’s northern command in Tigray region in an attempt to steal weapons and force soldiers to defect. Abiy declares a state of emergency and vows to eliminate the criminal element. But with a generation that’s been taught false narratives and fascist ideals, the TPLF have many fault lines they can exploit to foment further chaos in the country. Their strategy is scorched earth and the longer Abiy let’s this linger the worse this conflict becomes.
Nominally, this is a regional proxy war between Ethiopia and Egypt via the TPLF over the Nile as the TPLF had foreign benefactors during their struggles and were always the obvious ally in Egypt’s quest to maintain Nile hegemony. But majority of this has to do with 30 years of criminality finally being answered for and rather than quietly retiring with the millions they stole from Ethiopian banks and industries they’d rather wage war and bring all of their people down with them.
Last edited: