Thats my fear if this isn’t resolved quickly. It’s already threatening to turn into that as you said. Each ethnic state has militias so naturally Amhara militias are going in after the massacre in Mai Cadra. I really hope the govt is doing it’s best to help Tigrays but whose to say? I’m not exactly a huge Abiy supporter so I don’t know what measures have been taken to help the citizens given his failures to stop ethnic attacks in other areas.
If it’s contained to the North and done quickly then it’ll be manageable. The moment this spreads south to the capital and beyond is when it’ll become a very very big problem. As far as I know, TPLF’s supply route to the West is cut so they’re on borrowed time. Their last course of action might be to escape through Afar to Djibouti and then Somaliland to UAE.
I’m skeptical that border with Sudan is fully cut off, it’s a huge border and a region of Sudan that even their own army/security forces do not have total control over. All sorts of illicit migration and trade between Eri/Ethiopia border and long history of tensions between security forces on both sides.
Also doubt there will be a total defeat, but if there is, they are far more likely to head to Sudan than they are to Djibouti or SL. The latter are way too far from Tigray. In any sort of talks that would end the conflict, Sudan would play a role.
Tl:dr, Make it plain: Dictator oppresses, Rebels fought for power, rebels win, country splits into two, rebels in the old country stole and oppressed people for decades, during those decades they went to war with their former brothers in arms and became mortal enemies in the process despite sharing the closest of ethnic ties, protests from different ethnic groups brought new PM (Abiy) to power, PM made reforms which sidelined and reduced the power of former rulers, new PM makes peace with former rulers enemies across the border and concedes land, former rulers are pissed off and retreat to their region and begin obstructing reform process and inflaming tensions, elections postponed due to Covid, former rulers hold elections anyway, both sides deem the other illegal, former rulers attack federal military base, new PM declares state of emergency and is currently closing in on the criminal threat. Former rebels launch missiles into former enemies territory in a desperate attempt to turn the cold border war hot again.
Cliff notes(hard to do without leaving out important points for context):
Back in the 70s and 80s, Eritrean independence fighters (EPLF-Eritrean People’s Liberation Front/Isaias Afewerki-current president since independence in the 90s) combined with Tigrayan based independence fighters (TPLF-Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front/former PM Meles Zenawi whom passed away from an illness), Amhara militias against Mengistu, and Oromo independence militias (OLF-Shane) combined to eventually overthrow the communist dictatorship in the early 90s. After being overthrown, Col. Mengistu Haile Mariam escaped to Zimbabwe where he lives today, the former dictator predicts that the TPLF will one day tear the country apart starting with Eritrea.
The EPLF go on to establish Eritrea and Ethiopia becomes landlocked, TPLF takes control of the Ethiopian state. Beforehand, they promised the OLF (Oromo militias) a similar setup to Eritrea with their own land called Oromia but later double crossed and stomped out theirs and any separatist movements including prison, torture, media censorship, extra judicial killings, etc.
TPLF/Meles create a ethno-nationalist based system on the grounds of ethnic/linguistic demographics. This was argued as being a system which gave ethnic groups more authority and freedom including respect of other groups and cultures. In truth, it was a clever system of divide and rule which made managing the different groups easy. Two generation of Ethiopians were taught tribe over nation and created more radicalized youths willing to kill their neighbor because of ethnicity
Meles and Isaias began to feud over territorial rights and dragged Ethiopia and Eritrea into a bloody border war. After the ceasefire, the TPLF maintained hostilities and a 20 year cold war split apart families and communities. Mass deportations of longtime Eritreans citizens in Ethiopia and Ethiopian citizens in Eritrea solidified the state of no war no peace
TPLF went on to loot much of the resources and land including a great deal of foreign currency. This was all while Ethiopia saw among the most rapid economic growth in the world. But vulnerable tribes had their land sold to foreign nations by Tigrayan elites while the people had no redress. The Hunter gatherer societies of the Omo valley being among their many victims. The death of Meles Zenawi (the architect of the dam project as well as an efficient police state apparatus) weakened the power of the TPLF as their leader was now gone and difficult to replace which began their downward spiral. The TPLF then installed the puppet PM Desalgn from one of the smaller tribes in the south to appease groups grumbling about the overly Tigrayan character of leadership while attempting to maintain the police state. Amhara and Oromo youths unite in mass protests which hadn’t been seen for years in the country. The TPLF’s hand is forced by the civil rest which bring in Abiy as a transitional leader, but by now the Tigray area has become a highly militarized region due to the history of the wars with Eritrea hosting a sizable portion of Ethiopia’s heavy artillery and missiles as well as a militia and paramilitary force rumored to be around 250,000 as well as having controlled the economy and military for years which kept them both very wealthy and very powerful and very prepared for potential war.
Abiy’s reforms essentially triggered things. He’s a product of the TPLF apparatus itself as a former soldier and intelligence officer. There are investigations being conducted into stolen funds and shady corruption of the TPLF regime and this gave Tigray elites a feeling of persecution which TPLF sold to its people as an attack on them all. The peace in Eritrea was the second major trigger. The TPLF wasn’t involved in the peace talks despite the border conflict directly involving them. This could be seen as one of Abiy’s main errors however there’s no evidence to suggest that the TPLF were good faith actors in the talks nor is there evidence that they attempted to participate at all. Nevertheless, the peace with Eritrea meant land concessions that were beyond what the TPLF could accept.
The final straws came when Abiy dissolved the old EPRDF (Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front) which is the name of the ethnonationalist based system which the TPLF and Meles created in exchange for the “Prosperity Party” which is an attempt to introduce a non ethnic based political system which allows membership for all regardless of ethnicity and presents a Unitarian approach vs an ethnic based one. All groups except for the TPLF joined the new coalition which further alienated them. By this point, their power and influence on a national level was crushed considerably so they retreated to their regional capital of Mekele and began provocative actions to defy Abiy’s authority.
Elections were supposed to be held this year but were held off due to Covid. TPLF saw this as an attempt by Abiy to extend his mandate. Bear in mind, Abiy is a transitional leader and still has to face the electoral process. In defiance of Abiy’s call to postpone elections, the TPLF carried out elections in Tigray and naturally won in a 100% landslide. Abiy called their elections illegitimate and declared the TPLF illegal, the TPLF did the same saying Abiy’s mandate officially ended on September 15th and there’s currently a constitutional crisis. Federal govt cut off the whole Tigray region from the budget and dissolve their govt and pull their terrorist card.
The final straw came when TPLF forces conducted a sneak attack on the Ethiopian army’s northern command in Tigray region in an attempt to steal weapons and force soldiers to defect. Abiy declares a state of emergency and vows to eliminate the criminal element. But with a generation that’s been taught false narratives and fascist ideals, the TPLF have many fault lines they can exploit to foment further chaos in the country. Their strategy is scorched earth and the longer Abiy let’s this linger the worse this conflict becomes.
Nominally, this is a regional proxy war between Ethiopia and Egypt via the TPLF over the Nile as the TPLF had foreign benefactors during their struggles and were always the obvious ally in Egypt’s quest to maintain Nile hegemony. But majority of this has to do with 30 years of criminality finally being answered for and rather than quietly retiring with the millions they stole from Ethiopian banks and industries they’d rather wage war and bring all of their people down with them.
Was TPLF really any ally of Egypt? The dam started under them and tensions were just as high while Zenawi was in power. So much so, that people thought Abiy was going to abandon the dam after he took power. It’s only recently that perceptions have flipped.
Anybody care to give a cliffnotes version of what this conflict is about? Can't say I know too much about African politics but here's hoping for the least violent solution possible
I guess I'll add this to the list of terrible things going on in 2020
I’m skeptical that border with Sudan is fully cut off, it’s a huge border and a region of Sudan that even their own army/security forces do not have total control over. All sorts of illicit migration and trade between Eri/Ethiopia border and long history of tensions between security forces on both sides.
Also doubt there will be a total defeat, but if there is, they are far more likely to head to Sudan than they are to Djibouti or SL. The latter are way too far from Tigray. In any sort of talks that would end the conflict, Sudan would play a role.
It’s certainly possible, I’d say it would be hard though to maintain a true military supply line given that the Ethiopian offensive began from the southwest and that ended with federal forces securing the area. Abiy is a military man first so I can’t imagine he would carry out this operation without knowing that the western border is a vital lifeline for the TPLF.
Plus I think Abiy and Isaias had it on mind that there would be two war fronts once this conflict began so TPLF is dead to rights tbh. At worst, this will turn into a war front similar to the Eastern Front between the Soviets/Nazis in its brutal, almost race war characteristics and potential for vicious urban warfare once forces get to Mekelle.
Was TPLF really any ally of Egypt? The dam started under them and tensions were just as high while Zenawi was in power. So much so, that people thought Abiy was going to abandon the dam after he took power. It’s only recently that perceptions have flipped.
I’ll admit, Egypt’s role isn’t known. It’s mostly whispers of gathered intelligence on the Ethiopian side. That’s why I can only say a nominal role at best, I’d say where there’s smoke there’s fire. Geopolitically speaking, Egypt’s interests align more closely with the West than Ethiopia and the TPLF did work with the CIA during the civil war with the Derg so my feeling is that while the hard evidence isn’t there I also think the TPLF doesn’t go through with this without gettin some assurances that they can keep this up beyond what supplies they have.
Bruhhhhh, the Ethiopian Airlines been funneling guns, drugs, all kinds of shyt. Abiy been arresting hella officials and employees. TPLF really on some mafia shyt their criminal tentacles are all over the place.
A few of them bytch ass generals escaped to America. Ethiopia needs to be on some Mossad shyt and just get they ass anyway. fukk they whole existence they gotta die.
Bruhhhhh, the Ethiopian Airlines been funneling guns, drugs, all kinds of shyt. Abiy been arresting hella officials and employees. TPLF really on some mafia shyt their criminal tentacles are all over the place.
A few of them bytch ass generals escaped to America. Ethiopia needs to be on some Mossad shyt and just get they ass anyway. fukk they whole existence they gotta die.
Highly likely, hell Dr. Tedros at WHO is under suspicion too. The thing that sucks the most is that since they did favors for their fellow Tigray elites it looks like an ethnic witch-hunt when it’s really a hunt for unscrupulous elitists that stole Ethiopians funds and enriched themselves and left their own in destitute conditions.
TPLF played on the fault lines for decades and created a state where ethnicity superseded nationhood. This helped with their divide and rule tactics over decades as well. It was a vital time bomb for them should they lose power. One mistake I lay at Abiy’s feet is that he released way too many people without considering which people would actually be threats to the Ethiopian state. It wasn’t just political dissidents that were imprisoned but flat out extremists and secessionists that were bottled up after the overthrow of the Communist dictatorship.
That’s the danger of a protracted war. The longer the TPLF are able to defy the federal govt the more likely that separatists might begin to cause disturbances in other parts of the country.
Was TPLF really any ally of Egypt? The dam started under them and tensions were just as high while Zenawi was in power. So much so, that people thought Abiy was going to abandon the dam after he took power. It’s only recently that perceptions have flipped.
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...and to hell with all that pesky decentralisation