I don't think it'll be close at all, still go out and vote to not get complacent, but people forget how batshyt crazy his supporters were in 2016 and the energy then. That shyt was something else.
8 years later, broken promises and their lives worse off, they probably don't feel as strongly about it.
Plus it's boring and their guy don't have the same energy.
You're basically seeing the end of a ponzi scheme when people realize shyt is useless and a whole bunch of talk/gassing up but not substance/product.