2024 U.S. Presidential General Election Thread

[wire28]

"Defund the police" is just bad politics
it doesn't take a mastermind to see that

Can a smooth mind see it though?

We seriously may have to petition the mods to force a name change here.

 

[Frump]

On a related note to my last post, I think a lot of the misguided perspectives on the odds of victory are because some of the shared content is based on who is popular as opposed to who is informed/credible. For example, I saw this tweet reposted by multiple people in this thread the other day:


Lots of engagement on the tweet but is it coming from a reputable source? Is the guy saying it informed on the topic? Does he have a background in politics? Polling? Running campaigns?

A quick search for him online & his Facebook:

When we are listening to an IT Recruiter for political analysis, it makes sense why we have some misguided perspectives on the race

Also there are pollsters or former pollsters who disagree with how Silver does polling

You can take he’s polling over anyone else if you choose but there is no evidence that it would be wise to do so. He’s hit or miss like everyone else since 2016

 

[Macallik86]

Or they aren’t trying to repeat 2016 and don’t want to get complacent in a close race. I’m not saying they are up by a ton. In todays day and age every election is gonna be somewhat close

Silver isn’t infallable if you want to believe him over others fine but there is no evidence that he is better at it then everyone else

The actions of Trump and his campaign lately aren’t that of someone who thinks they are up imo

Actually, his accuracy relative to other pollsters is how he rose to prominence:

Political predictions are “big this year because of Nate Silver,” said Sam Wang, who runs the rival site Princeton Election Consortium. “He loves discussing the details of the data, and his commentary is quite good. He’s made this hobby mainstream.”

Between his live TV appearances on election night, Mr. Silver updated his model and determined around 8 p.m., after New Hampshire went to Senator Obama, that Senator McCain had no way of winning. By the end of the night, Mr. Silver had predicted the popular vote within one percentage point, predicted 49 of 50 states’ results correctly, and predicted all of the resolved Senate races correctly.

Finding Fame With a Prescient Call for Obama (Published 2008)

In an election season of unlikely outcomes, Nate Silver is perhaps the most unlikely media star to emerge.

www.nytimes.com

I think his track record is better than anyone else (publicly) out there, which is why he was recognized by Time Magazine of one of the most influential people in the world:

Nate Silver - The 2009 TIME 100 - TIME

What Nate Silver does on fivethirtyeight.com — and this is my understanding of what he does, not his description of it — is search data for the underlying order of the universe that is...

web.archive.org

When Dems were winning everything during the Obama-era and his polls reflected that, Republicans hated him. That's what makes the Dems hating on his polls now so sad because we would rather believe he has an ulterior motive (like Republicans) instead of accept that the race is tight and we might risk losing:

Why do many conservatives hate Nate Silver? He just runs numbers and gives cold analysis.

Answer (1 of 11): Not all conservatives hate Nate Silver, just the loudest ones. There is a faction of the Republican party that believes that by repeating something that is untrue many times, it becomes true. Similarly, they believe that by denying something that is true many times, it becomes ...

www.quora.com

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

Thanks!

You're still a bad-faith sh!tty poster tho

There's a difference between me telling fellow Democrats to avoid cognitive dissonance and embrace the race (and data) as it is, versus you calling people cacs, saying they post too much in TLR so their opinion doesn't count, both-siderism bullsh!t, etc

He gets upset when people explain to him how he's wrong so he starts with throwing around random insults, lying, whatever... Lol

Also, everyone in here can clearly see that I post a lot more info than what's supposedly on "cable news..."

It's not my fault posters like him want to skip past or look over data that I present in here to get off their daily narratives...

 

[Frump]

Actually, his accuracy relative to other pollsters is how he rose to prominence:

Finding Fame With a Prescient Call for Obama (Published 2008)

In an election season of unlikely outcomes, Nate Silver is perhaps the most unlikely media star to emerge.

www.nytimes.com

That's also why he was recognized by Time Magazine of one of the most influential people in the world for his polling:

Nate Silver - The 2009 TIME 100 - TIME

What Nate Silver does on fivethirtyeight.com — and this is my understanding of what he does, not his description of it — is search data for the underlying order of the universe that is...

web.archive.org

When Dems were winning everything during the Obama-era and his polls reflected that, Republicans hated him. That's what makes the Dems hating on his polls now so sad because we sound like Republicans:

Why do many conservatives hate Nate Silver? He just runs numbers and gives cold analysis.

Answer (1 of 11): Not all conservatives hate Nate Silver, just the loudest ones. There is a faction of the Republican party that believes that by repeating something that is untrue many times, it becomes true. Similarly, they believe that by denying something that is true many times, it becomes ...

www.quora.com

He’s also been wrong before and some people don’t think he’s done a good job of updating the formula

Here’s what I know it’s a close race somewhere near 50/50 regardless. Nobody should think it’s gonna be a blowout

If you want believe Nate and nobody else you have every right to but either way this is a close race that will come down to a few thousand votes in PA

 

[I Really Mean It]

it’s gonna be a landslide.

 

[Outlaw]

He’s also been wrong before and some people don’t think he’s done a good job of updating the formula

Here’s what I know it’s a close race somewhere near 50/50 regardless. Nobody should think it’s gonna be a blowout

If you want believe Nate and nobody else you have every right to but either way this is a close race that will come down to a few thousand votes in PA

If Trump debates then I think we’re going to be headed towards blowout territory. America ignored his lunacy against Biden because Biden’s performance shocked everyone. This time his insanity will be on full display and America won’t like it. It’ll also be one of the most televised debates ever

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

@Macallik86 My issue with Nate Silver (and don't get me wrong, I'm still checking for his data/models) is that he doesn't really admit when he is wrong and he's carrying on petty beefs with former colleagues that make him look like like he has an ax to grind..

All I want is data from these pollsters. That's it.

 

[I Really Mean It]

nate silver is a privileged white boy with zero skin in the game who has no qualms with inserting unnecessary punditry that amounts to little more than putting his thumb on the scale to maintain a close horse race.

 

[Macallik86]

@Macallik86 My issue with Nate Silver (and don't get me wrong, I'm still checking for his data/models) is that he doesn't really admit when he is wrong and he's carrying on petty beefs with former colleagues that make him look like like he has an ax to grind..

All I want is data from these pollsters. That's it.

No disagreement from me.

A few weeks back, I listened to his episode on Ezra Klein's podcast, and when came to discussions around policy/society/cancel culture/etc, I wouldn't go as far as saying Ezra sonned him, but Ezra was clearly intellectually superior and picked apart Nate Silver in a few areas.

It makes sense because Ezra Klein is a former editor and journalist (who covered governmental policy) and makes well-thought-out arguments for a living... He was operating in his area of expertise and Silver was floundering.

In the same vein tho, putting Nate's quirks/pettiness or hot-takes aside, if we are limiting strictly to his polls, it's the one thing he's good at the best in the world at, and so it makes sense to try and listen to the message objectively.

 

[taker597]

 

[jj23]

Just unhinged. It's like they are possessed. Mass delusion is a motherfukker.

 

[John Reena]

But we should shyt on people when they vote democrat, especially when the alternative is trump

Smooth mind logic at its best here ladies and gentleman.

This guy shyts on people all day then begs not to get shyt on when the “moral” candidate he is voting for gets outted for being a grifter

Imagine voting for Cornel West, a guy being propped up by republicans to help Trump.

 

[MushroomX]

MAGA crashing out hard... better listen y'all songs about white privilege and guns while you cry to sleep.

 

[Spidey Man]

This deep fake shyt is getting crazy.

Lawyers everywhere are praying Trump retweets this