2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread

[Big Jo]

For those worried about Philly turnout

https://www.reddit.com/r/philadelphia/s/oYdlTKeH1t

 

[Outlaw]

Again, im not entirely sure the current betting odds makers work in this fashion when there is big data involved . . . especially with the long odds given to Kamala at the moment. Bookies will lose big on Dem bets from the last couple of weeks should she win. Ill just repeat as I did a couple days ago, this landslide for Kamala is nowhere near what we are seeing in the general news coverage across the pond.

The gambling markets like polymarket aren’t set by bookies, it’s set by volume of buyers for one side versus the other. It’s like a stock price

 

[King Static X]

They are mostly built off analytics modelling algorithm's breh, its not the 1980s

No, they aren't

 

[the cac mamba]

They're seeing a bunch of suckers who will put money down for trump.

i wonder where they got that idea

 

[Kyle C. Barker]

Again, im not entirely sure the current betting odds makers work in this fashion when there is big data involved . . . especially with the long odds given to Kamala at the moment. Bookies will lose big on Dem bets from the last couple of weeks should she win. Ill just repeat as I did a couple days ago, this landslide for Kamala is nowhere near what we are seeing in the general news coverage across the pond.

What odds makers are you specifically talking about?

Also you very well could use machine learning/big data as a means for predicting what odds/betting lines would attract the most users to place a bet. In fact, that's exactly the type of data they have at their disposal within their system. They have a data lake of gambler profiles

 

[Sghost597]

Stay safe folks

 

[((ReFleXioN)) EteRNaL]

Almost all bookies have Trump still as favourite as of right now. What are they not seeing that the coli is

The people are moving the odds at this point. And trump's lead has gone down over the past week. He was around 65% favorite at one point. Now he's around 55%. Some sites even have Harris slightly ahead. The people are betting for different reasons. I think people putting money on trump just feel he's too much of a force for Kamala to beat him. Too popular. You can see it on Twitter. They talk about trump doing 50 mil on Rogan and really believe that's gonna translate to votes.

Kamala doesn't do close to the numbers trump does on podcasts and interviews and she never will. That's because she's just a boring politician who's always gonna give you the standard political answer. Where trump is a loose cannon who's liable to say anything. It makes for a more compelling watch. So I don't put any stock in those numbers.

Also, men far outweigh woman when it comes to gambling. Around 65-35%. And the simple fact is that plenty of men have been indoctrinated by the alt right manosphere over the past 5 years. Rogan. Elon musk. Andrew Tate. Plenty of men worship these guys and have a distorted view on reality right now. And their algorithms have them believing trump is untouchable now because of it. This is why this election is so fascinating. It could very well come down to women vs men. That's why I'm not putting much stock in the odds. This particular election has far too many variables to consider.

 

[voiture]

the comey letter terrified me at the time, it really did seem like it could swing the election. but the polls were still okay. fainting at 9/11 memorial was similar.

Comey gave us Trump. His stunt is the genesis of all these problems

 

[the cac mamba]

 

[Frump]

Love the amount of bullshyt republicans are feeding their base

 

[merklman]

The gambling markets like polymarket aren’t set by bookies, it’s set by volume of buyers for one side versus the other. It’s like a stock price

Not for opening lines - they are based on something, in elections usually polls etc. What you are talking about is adaptive once betting is liquid, and still we have Trump edging it. Interesting to see if it flips by tomorrow with the odds checkers

 

[mitter]

For those who remember 2016, what were the telltale signs that he was winning pre Election Day? I really gotta brace myself for this

I honestly think few people realized what was going to happen until a good part of the Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin vote had been reported, Trump was ahead, and the amount of outstanding vote seemed like it might not be enough for Hillary to catch up ... it was a sinking feeling.


For this year, I think the telltale signs will be Kamala running behind Biden (in terms of precinct-by-precinct percentage) as the Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin numbers start to trickle in ...


If Kamala carries the rust belt of Pennsylvania/Michigan/Wisconsin, I could easily see her also carrying Georgia and/or North Carolina and/or Arizona to put the cherry on top. But If she does not carry all of the rust belt states, I don't see her winning any other big states that will make up for that.

The tipping point for both campaigns will be Pennsylvania and/or Wisconsin.

 

[good pups]

betting markets had hillary in 2016 too, by a lot more

 

[Sghost597]

 

[Outlaw]

Not for opening lines - they are based on something, in elections usually polls etc. What you are talking about is adaptive once betting is liquid, and still we have Trump edging it. Interesting to see if it flips by tomorrow with the odds checkers

Which website are you referring to? A lot of the lines start 50/50 then volume comes in and changes the odds