2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread

[Frump]

Ann Selzer is the gold standard pollster of Iowa. She is one of the best in the business.

She picked up late movement toward Trump in 2016. In 2020, her final poll of Iowa showed Trump and Joni Ernst firmly ahead when other pollsters had the Dems in striking distance.

She's pretty accurate with the final results.



Kamala isn't winning Iowa but the poll is consistent with her doing better with white suburban women... and white women overall across the Midwest.

So if she's off by 5%...Trump is winning Iowa by only 2%? That's horrible for him.

Yup that’s the thing I took from it. Not that she’s winning Iowa but that unless Selzer who is historically extremely accurate and close even with her misses is off by like 12-15 points here then Trump is fukked

That doesn’t seem likely and I would not want to be Trump right now having to hope a historically accurate pollster is historically off this year by a crazy margin

Trump has to hope she somehow suddenly fell off a cliff this year with her polling tactics

 

[The ADD]

Yup that’s the thing I took from it. Not that she’s winning Iowa but that unless Selzer who is historically extremely accurate and close even with her misses is off by like 12-15 points here then Trump is fukked

That doesn’t seem likely and I would not want to be Trump right now having to hope a historically accurate pollster is historically off this year by a crazy margin

Trump has to hope she somehow suddenly fell off a cliff this year with her polling tactics

^^^
Seems wild to find a world where she is off that much in her home state. Nothing there about his base has change and she’s reflecting the likely biggest change in the electorate with women.

Like most are saying, Harris winning IA isn’t likely but this a flashing red signal for Trump in a lot of ways.

 

[Frump]

looking at that twitter post. she had 3 straight as accurate as can be and then a miss in 2018. then 3 straight as accurate as can be and then a ____ in 2024. hopefully it doesn't follow the previous pattern and is a hit. either way if it's trump +3 then that's good news for the blue wall.

The thing is even if it’s a miss it has to be a miss by about 12 points for Trump to even be in ok position where he’d feel the race is 50/50

 

[GnauzBookOfRhymes]

Not gonna lie, I’m feeling optimistic.

I think there is a lot of trump fatigue that doesn’t really show up in polls.

If Harris wins she’s going to have to deal with a lot of the same disrespectfully racist shyt Obama faced (interrupting state of the union etc) but with the advantage of a red hot economy.

 

[Frump]

The NYT poll has her losing PA and MI but still winning the election

Also some of these polls that have it tied nationally if you look at the cross tabs no way is that possible

These pollsters are

 

[wire28]

How long I been telling you that tho?

nikka refused to listen. nikkas was locking themselves in the basements writing on the chalkboard trying to figure shyt out when it was as simple as ever since Dobbs Rethugs been losing simple as that

 

[wire28]

No, we were right. It was a very stupid thing for a president to say on the eve of an election.

It would have only come from the brain of a decrepit old man. To act like it’s some brilliant political strategy is insane.

Who said it was a brilliant political strategy. People said it wasn’t going to move the needle and it didn’t. It actually made Trump say even more stupid shyt like whether they like it or not and it was in the media for less than 24 hours

 

[mastermind]

Look...I have my issues with the way Kamala has chosen to run this campaign...but goddamn if she don't look finer than frog's hair split three ways I tell you what boy

Was thinking the same thing watching that last night, lol

 

[mastermind]

Everyone who’s in the industry and politics waits for her polling to come out every year right before the election

i can’t really answer that as good as maybe others here I havent been following polling that closely till this year I just read up on her the last few days

Just sit back and observe, friend.

 

[Outlaw]

AB so damn stupid he doesn't get the c00n reference

He does, he’s just trolling. AB called the MAGA crowd crackers when he spoke at a Trump rally in PA

 

[King Static X]

Who the thot wearing the black outfit?

Pornstar Richelle Ryan

 

[AVXL]

Ann Selzer is the gold standard pollster of Iowa. She is one of the best in the business.

She picked up late movement toward Trump in 2016. In 2020, her final poll of Iowa showed Trump and Joni Ernst firmly ahead when other pollsters had the Dems in striking distance.

She's pretty accurate with the final results.



Kamala isn't winning Iowa but the poll is consistent with her doing better with white suburban women... and white women overall across the Midwest.

So if she's off by 5%...Trump is winning Iowa by only 2%? That's horrible for him.

So given her track record and methodology how could you then turn around and confidently say Kamala isn’t winning Iowa?

 

[Frump]

Ehh we shall see

 

[AquaCityBoy]

 

[Robbie3000]

Who said it was a brilliant political strategy. People said it wasn’t going to move the needle and it didn’t. It actually made Trump say even more stupid shyt like whether they like it or not and it was in the media for less than 24 hours

So Biden’s stupidity, luckily, was cancelled out by Trump’s stupidity. Got it.