"Who are the Knicks? Brunson, Brunson and some other Knickas" " - Official '23 NYK Offseason Thread

storyteller

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Here's that Athletic piece I had mentioned before folks...

How could NBA’s new CBA affect Knicks this summer and beyond?​


Matching salaries​

All we hear about in Knicksland is the team’s chase for a star. Well, the team is in an even more advantageous position under the new CBA, which will make it more difficult for teams with expensive payrolls to deal not just for star players but for any players at all. Meanwhile, the Knicks are below the luxury-tax line and should remain in that territory for the 2023-24 season.

Some of the new restrictive rules are being phased in, but here is a summary of them:

The NBA is adding a “second apron,” which will be $17.5 million above the luxury-tax threshold and will hurt high-payroll teams on the trade market.

The Knicks, as constructed, could make a hypothetical star trade using players whose salaries come within 125 percent of the salary they’re trading for — referred to as “matching salaries.” But during the 2023-24 season, which begins July 1, teams who are above the second apron can match salaries up to only 110 percent, according to league sources, making any sort of trade far more difficult.

New York, which is not in the tax, won’t have to deal with this. But more expensive teams could be wiped out of the conversation for a star, or even for just a regular old role player because they can’t make the money work.

The rules become even more restrictive once the 2023-24 regular season ends. From that point on, teams above the second apron cannot aggregate players in trades at all, meaning they can deal only one player at a time, and salary-matching rules become as prohibitive as possible. If two teams both above the first apron are making a trade, they can do the swap only with players who make identical salaries, down to the cent. Essentially, starting next summer, the only realistic way a team over either apron can make a trade is if it flips one player who signed a max, midlevel or minimum deal for another player who signed the same contract in the same season.

How often do we see trades like that?

If the Knicks trade for a star, whether it’s this summer or the next one, they will have to maneuver around these measures. If it’s a particularly expensive household name and they manage to hold onto Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett in the process, then they’re talking about the tax or maybe even the second apron, and that’s without considering new salaries for upcoming free agent Josh Hart or up-and-comers Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin, who could be included in a star trade but are also only one year away from free agency.

There was never a good time to part with lots of picks and young players for a star who does not work, but it’s possible, given the punitive tax rules, that it’s more harmful now than ever to give up the kitchen sink for the wrong star. If a team has a player who doesn’t fit and underperforms because of it, then that team has fewer ways to improve around him and could be stuck.

Teams above the second apron are restricted in how they can build out their rosters, too. They lose access to the taxpayer midlevel exception. Essentially, if a team is above the second apron, it can only sign players with minimum contracts or by using Bird rights
, which allows organizations to exceed the salary cap to re-sign their players.

Player-friendly extension rules​

Extensions for players coming off rookie contracts can now be five years for everyone — not just for designated top prospects, as was the case during the previous CBA — which means Quickley and Toppin will be eligible for five-year deals this summer. The extensions would kick in for the 2024-25 season. Next summer, Quentin Grimes would be eligible for a five-year extension, which would start for the 2025-26 season.

But the young players aren’t the only ones who could benefit. There’s also Hart, an anticipated free agent who isn’t guaranteed to become one, even if Hart returning to New York remains the most likely outcome this summer.

Hart has a unique contract structure: a $13 million player option for the 2023-24 season that becomes non-guaranteed if he picks it up. The assumption all along was that he would go into free agency since he’s worth more than $13 million. But with the new rules, he has another option.

Veterans can now extend for up to 140 percent of their previous season’s salary. That figure used to be 120 percent. It means leading into June 24, the deadline for Hart to pick up or decline his player option, he and the Knicks could negotiate a 2024-25 salary for up to $18.1 million (140 percent of $13 million). If both sides agreed, Hart could pick up the player option, the Knicks could guarantee it and he could then sign an extension, which would begin in 2024-25, worth up to about $81 million over four years.

The extension route would accomplish two things for New York.

First, it would keep Hart around for an extra season — five years instead of the max of four he’d get as a free agent. Second, it would keep his 2023-24 salary down, giving the team a little more financial flexibility in the upcoming season.

The frozen pick​

There is one more way the trade market could dampen if a star becomes available.

When a team is above the second apron at the end of the season, then “the frozen pick,” unquestionably the coolest new term to come out of this CBA, comes into play. Here’s what it means: If a team is above the second apron, then its first-round pick seven years into the future cannot be traded.

For example, if a team were above the second apron right now, then that means it can’t trade its 2030 first-rounder.

Since teams cannot go consecutive seasons without first-round picks and since they can trade first-rounders as far as only seven years into the future, this means ones above the second apron can deal as many as three of their first-rounders, while teams below the second apron can trade up to four of their own firsts.

This could give the Knicks another slight advantage on the trade market if they’re bidding against a second-apron team for a player they want.
 

storyteller

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I'm Cliff's Notes'ing the second-half for space, and so readers have an excuse to go to the Athletic direct...

All-NBA likelihoods​

- Players that don't miss a lot of games are going to have a better chance of making All-NBA teams from now on...
Players must compete in at least 65 games to be eligible for All-NBA teams now. If those rules applied to this season, five of the 15 players who made them would not have been on the ballot, clearing the way for Brunson, who missed it narrowly. Randle has been All-NBA twice in three years.

- That could inflate Brunson's max contract when he inevitably opts out in a couple of years.
The point guard can become a free agent in 2025. And if he enters the market coming off an All-NBA campaign, he will be supermax eligible — meaning his contract could start at 35 percent of the salary cap instead of 30 percent of it.

In this situation, his starting salary on a max deal would jump from a projected $44.3 million to a projected $51.7 million. A five-year supermax contract in 2025 would make 1990s Wall Street CEOs jealous: $299.9 million.

- Two more notes:
First, All-NBA teams are positionless going forward, which could go either way as far as players qualifying. I think it helps Brunson since there are so many great guards in the league right now.
Second, Randle will be a 10-year vet on his next extension. So he qualifies for the 35% increases automatically without needing to make another All-NBA team.

Managing the midlevel​

- There will be a lot more flexibility with how teams can use their MLE...
Starting in 2024-25, teams can use the midlevel, if untouched, as a trade exception, according to league sources. That means organizations above the salary cap can use the midlevel exception to sign a player, claim someone on waivers or trade for someone who makes up to $12 million without having to match salaries in that deal. Whether the midlevel can always be used as a trade exception or if it turns into a trade exception after the offseason remains unclear. At this point, the league office is yet to give a final copy of the new CBA to the 30 teams. Instead, it has sent a detailed summary of the changes. But there are still tiny details that front offices are unsure about.

- It's possible that this could cause middle-class teams to hang on the their MLE instead of using it so freely.

Derrick Rose situation​

- The second apron limitations and new CBA should increase the value of Derrick Rose's expiring contract.
At least some of the league’s most-expensive teams (particularly the ones who are concerned about exceeding the second apron in 2024-25, when all those regulations mentioned up top become far more punishing) will try to dump future salaries this upcoming summer. For those organizations, flipping someone with two years remaining on his contract for someone with only one is a victory.

My prediction: expiring contracts will make a comeback. And Rose — who’s at a nice, middling salary — could provide one.

- Pair Rose and Fournier, and you're looking at more than 40 million dollars worth of expiring contracts to offer other teams. Considering how limiting the new CBA is for teams way over the cap, that could be a really valuable asset to offer.

- But he does mention that it's still unconventional to pick up Rose's option. Which means, if the Knicks make that move, they probably expect to use the expiring contract in a deal.
 

Daniel.

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Here's that Athletic piece I had mentioned before folks...

How could NBA’s new CBA affect Knicks this summer and beyond?​


Matching salaries​

All we hear about in Knicksland is the team’s chase for a star. Well, the team is in an even more advantageous position under the new CBA, which will make it more difficult for teams with expensive payrolls to deal not just for star players but for any players at all. Meanwhile, the Knicks are below the luxury-tax line and should remain in that territory for the 2023-24 season.

Some of the new restrictive rules are being phased in, but here is a summary of them:

The NBA is adding a “second apron,” which will be $17.5 million above the luxury-tax threshold and will hurt high-payroll teams on the trade market.

The Knicks, as constructed, could make a hypothetical star trade using players whose salaries come within 125 percent of the salary they’re trading for — referred to as “matching salaries.” But during the 2023-24 season, which begins July 1, teams who are above the second apron can match salaries up to only 110 percent, according to league sources, making any sort of trade far more difficult.

New York, which is not in the tax, won’t have to deal with this. But more expensive teams could be wiped out of the conversation for a star, or even for just a regular old role player because they can’t make the money work.

The rules become even more restrictive once the 2023-24 regular season ends. From that point on, teams above the second apron cannot aggregate players in trades at all, meaning they can deal only one player at a time, and salary-matching rules become as prohibitive as possible. If two teams both above the first apron are making a trade, they can do the swap only with players who make identical salaries, down to the cent. Essentially, starting next summer, the only realistic way a team over either apron can make a trade is if it flips one player who signed a max, midlevel or minimum deal for another player who signed the same contract in the same season.

How often do we see trades like that?

If the Knicks trade for a star, whether it’s this summer or the next one, they will have to maneuver around these measures. If it’s a particularly expensive household name and they manage to hold onto Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett in the process, then they’re talking about the tax or maybe even the second apron, and that’s without considering new salaries for upcoming free agent Josh Hart or up-and-comers Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin, who could be included in a star trade but are also only one year away from free agency.

There was never a good time to part with lots of picks and young players for a star who does not work, but it’s possible, given the punitive tax rules, that it’s more harmful now than ever to give up the kitchen sink for the wrong star. If a team has a player who doesn’t fit and underperforms because of it, then that team has fewer ways to improve around him and could be stuck.

Teams above the second apron are restricted in how they can build out their rosters, too. They lose access to the taxpayer midlevel exception. Essentially, if a team is above the second apron, it can only sign players with minimum contracts or by using Bird rights
, which allows organizations to exceed the salary cap to re-sign their players.

Player-friendly extension rules​

Extensions for players coming off rookie contracts can now be five years for everyone — not just for designated top prospects, as was the case during the previous CBA — which means Quickley and Toppin will be eligible for five-year deals this summer. The extensions would kick in for the 2024-25 season. Next summer, Quentin Grimes would be eligible for a five-year extension, which would start for the 2025-26 season.

But the young players aren’t the only ones who could benefit. There’s also Hart, an anticipated free agent who isn’t guaranteed to become one, even if Hart returning to New York remains the most likely outcome this summer.

Hart has a unique contract structure: a $13 million player option for the 2023-24 season that becomes non-guaranteed if he picks it up. The assumption all along was that he would go into free agency since he’s worth more than $13 million. But with the new rules, he has another option.

Veterans can now extend for up to 140 percent of their previous season’s salary. That figure used to be 120 percent. It means leading into June 24, the deadline for Hart to pick up or decline his player option, he and the Knicks could negotiate a 2024-25 salary for up to $18.1 million (140 percent of $13 million). If both sides agreed, Hart could pick up the player option, the Knicks could guarantee it and he could then sign an extension, which would begin in 2024-25, worth up to about $81 million over four years.

The extension route would accomplish two things for New York.

First, it would keep Hart around for an extra season — five years instead of the max of four he’d get as a free agent. Second, it would keep his 2023-24 salary down, giving the team a little more financial flexibility in the upcoming season.

The frozen pick​

There is one more way the trade market could dampen if a star becomes available.

When a team is above the second apron at the end of the season, then “the frozen pick,” unquestionably the coolest new term to come out of this CBA, comes into play. Here’s what it means: If a team is above the second apron, then its first-round pick seven years into the future cannot be traded.

For example, if a team were above the second apron right now, then that means it can’t trade its 2030 first-rounder.

Since teams cannot go consecutive seasons without first-round picks and since they can trade first-rounders as far as only seven years into the future, this means ones above the second apron can deal as many as three of their first-rounders, while teams below the second apron can trade up to four of their own firsts.

This could give the Knicks another slight advantage on the trade market if they’re bidding against a second-apron team for a player they want.


Dope. Thanks.

The rookie contract piece in tandem with all the salary and trade restrictions is particularly interesting considering the CBA goes through the 29/30 season, which means these 5 year extensions that kick in 24/25 and 25/26 would run through almost the entirety of the CBA. I'm not sure if they're trying to have basically the same 8-9 guys locked up until the next big wave of changes come, assuming you resign Randle, RJ, Mitch and Brunson along the way.

If the front office isn't sold on IQ, Obi and/or QG, I wouldn't be surprised if 2 if not all 3 are moved, not as a part of larger deals for a star, but smaller deals during this and upcoming drafts. That way they can try to strike gold on more cost controlled contracts at positions of need for the majority of this CBA wherever they feel there are redundancies, just to avoid that second apron while still maintaining flexibility all the way through for a disgruntled star. Trying to cascade money/contracts around your core (Brunson/Randle/RJ/Mitch) that are all on reasonable contracts as opposed to taking a big swing, strategically, makes more sense in this circumstance.

I gave them a lot of shyt, but staying put with CBA changes looming was the right move. They have a core 4 and can maneuver around it as they see fit.
 

storyteller

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Dope. Thanks.

The rookie contract piece in tandem with all the salary and trade restrictions is particularly interesting considering the CBA goes through the 29/30 season, which means these 5 year extensions that kick in 24/25 and 25/26 would run through almost the entirety of the CBA. I'm not sure if they're trying to have basically the same 8-9 guys locked up until the next big wave of changes come, assuming you resign Randle, RJ, Mitch and Brunson along the way.

If the front office isn't sold on IQ, Obi and/or QG, I wouldn't be surprised if 2 if not all 3 are moved, not as a part of larger deals for a star, but smaller deals during this and upcoming drafts. That way they can try to strike gold on more cost controlled contracts at positions of need for the majority of this CBA wherever they feel there are redundancies, just to avoid that second apron while still maintaining flexibility all the way through for a disgruntled star. Trying to cascade money/contracts around your core (Brunson/Randle/RJ/Mitch) that are all on reasonable contracts as opposed to taking a big swing, strategically, makes more sense in this circumstance.

I gave them a lot of shyt, but staying put with CBA changes looming was the right move. They have a core 4 and can maneuver around it as they see fit.
It definitely feels like they made moves with an awareness that big changes were coming. Then you factor in 10% increases to the cap and those extensions are really good work. I suspect only one of IQ and QG gets kept around long term, and I'm not sure what they do about Obi (not because I don't like him, but if Randle is gonna continue to play 35+ mpg, investing in Obi becomes a waste of resources).

I could definitely see them trying to turn those guys into parts of a superstar trade or, new cheaper developmental pieces. I like rookie contract Obi above any of his potential replacements in the draft (in range of the realistically attainable picks at least). But second contract Obi versus a cheap, cost-controlled Noah Clowney or Leonard Miller...maybe not.
 

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Knicks already made up their minds on who they want to keep after they got eliminated. They already traded their 1st round pick for Hart and trying to re-sign him. Getting ready to extend IQ. No talks about Obi and they are looking at adding a superstar SG to go with their starters without trying to include them in the package trade. As the saying goes Denial isn't just.... well you already know. Sorry @ISO :mjlit:

They probably make it up to you with a February jersey ceremony for Melo. :pachaha:
 

Wargames

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Knicks already made up their minds on who they want to keep after they got eliminated. They already traded their 1st round pick for Hart and trying to re-sign him. Getting ready to extend IQ. No talks about Obi and they are looking at adding a superstar SG to go with their starters without trying to include them in the package trade. As the saying goes Denial isn't just.... well you already know. Sorry @ISO :mjlit:

They probably make it up to you with a February jersey ceremony for Melo. :pachaha:
It’s been confirmed they are looking at Beal or Lavine?
 

firemanBk

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I would love a Beal trade if he wasn't on such a terrible contract
If he was making like 30-35mil per even I would say go for it
But giving a Supermax to a player who doesn't even guarantee you a playoff berth is madness
 

Glorious

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It’s been confirmed they are looking at Beal or Lavine?
They were trying to trade for Beal before the deadline and now that the Wiz gave him the blessing to seek his own trade. I'm sure his preferences to stay close to the Atlantic area is still there. Meaning it will be up to the Beal and the Knicks to work out the trade and which players are involve.
 

Wargames

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They were trying to trade for Beal before the deadline and now that the Wiz gave him the blessing to seek his own trade. I'm sure his preferences to stay close to the Atlantic area is still there. Meaning it will be up to the Beal and the Knicks to work out the trade and which players are involve.
For this to happen Beal would have to force himself to the Knicks. Even more than Donovan he has control, but we don’t know if we’re #1 on his list. If the rumors the Knicks aren’t pushing hard on this are true they probably know they aren’t the first choice.
 

Glorious

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For this to happen Beal would have to force himself to the Knicks. Even more than Donovan he has control, but we don’t know if we’re #1 on his list. If the rumors the Knicks aren’t pushing hard on this are true they probably know they aren’t the first choice.
We may not but the Knicks may if those reports are true. Beal and the Knicks can be privately discussing the matter. Beal never struck me as the guy who talks too much on online. Like I said I think the Knicks already know who they are willing to move on from.
 

Wargames

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We may not but the Knicks may if those reports are true. Beal and the Knicks can be privately discussing the matter. Beal never struck me as the guy who talks too much on online. Like I said I think the Knicks already know who they are willing to move on from.
I am not saying they aren’t I am saying Beal is going to have to say “send me to NY” for the deal to happen. If he is wishy washy and gives a list of a more than two or even three destinations shyt will probably go south on a trade.
 

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I asked ESPN Front Office Insider Bobby Marks about RJ Barrett’s value in the wake of his playoff performance on The Putback this week.

“Out of the extensions that were last year, whether it be Jordan Poole, Tyler Herro or RJ Barrett, I think the Barrett number is the best value out of those three,” Marks says (17-minute mark). “…. He’s a big wing; you never really want to give up on young players like that. Certainly I want to see that 31 percent number jump up to 37. You get that up to 37, 38. Four-three up to 45 percent. As long as things are moving in the right direction, he’s got a lot of value – not just to the Knicks but throughout the league. I wouldn’t put him (as an) untouchable. But if you’re looking at this roster with Jalen (Brunson), RJ, (Immanuel) Quickley, (Quentin) Grimes, those are your kind of cornerstone guys to build around.”

As noted in the episode, if the Knicks make a trade for a top player, it seems like they would have to move either Barrett or Julius Randle to make it work. If I had to guess, I’d think Barrett’s playoff performance bolsters the odds that he remains in New York in that Randle-or-Barrett scenario.

Some other nice tidbits. Naz Reid has fans in the organization (they'd have to be moving Mitch or I-Hart for that to actually make sense...but Naz is a good option). He's not sure about the Knicks' interest in Seth Curry, but they definitely want more shooting on the roster. He assumes Gerson Rosas will be the next GM with Thibs having plenty of input.
 
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