Why is Aiyuk's contract situation so contentious?
In a wide receiver market so saturated with talent and ballooning production, many young wideouts can argue that they're a top guy -- and top guys are getting
paid. That's why the position saw a
market-topping extension for
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions), which was immediately leapfrogged by a
market-topping extension for
A.J. Brown (Eagles), which was then leapfrogged by a
market-topping extension for
Justin Jefferson (Vikings).
It's why
Tee Higgins (Bengals)
requested a trade before
succumbing to the franchise tag, and why teammate Ja'Marr Chase is
holding in (and, lately,
holding out) for a contract extension of his own. It's why Hill (Dolphins) and Cooper (Browns) and
Courtland Sutton (Broncos) all got their
existing contracts buffed during training camp -- the top of the market has grown so fast that deals signed just two offseasons ago are going stale.
As the market explodes, 49ers general manager John Lynch has been painted into a corner. The 49ers can't argue they can only carry one top-of-market wide receiver deal, because the Eagles have two massive contracts in Brown and
DeVonta Smith, and the Dolphins have the same with Hill and
Jaylen Waddle. Waddle and Smith were both drafted in 2021, a year after Aiyuk, so San Francisco can't really contend that Aiyuk should wait out his fifth-year option, either. It is reasonable that he wants to be paid now, even with Samuel's
$28.6 million cap hit sitting on the books.
And considering Aiyuk's towering 2023 production, crafting the argument for him to become the league's top-paid receiver isn't very hard. He has gotten better in each of his four seasons as a pro. He was the most explosive receiver and one of the three most efficient wideouts in football last season. If we really strap on our agent hat, we can even claim he is the reason Purdy has been so successful. Since Purdy took over as the 49ers' starter in 2022, Aiyuk has been his most valuable target. Among all of San Francisco's terrifying weapons, Aiyuk is the best at turning a Purdy target into a successful play, a first down or an explosive play:
This is far from an airtight argument. The simplest explanation for Purdy's explosion coinciding with Aiyuk's emergence is just that: coincidence. Just as Aiyuk was entering his physical prime and escaping Shanahan's doghouse, where he spent much of the 2021 season, Purdy stumbled into the starting job and brought downfield aggressiveness that incumbent QB
Jimmy Garoppolo lacked. This is another chicken-and-egg problem that makes discerning just how valuable Aiyuk is to the 49ers very, very challenging.
In that spirit, let's cast aside our agent hat and replace it with a general manager one. If I was in John Lynch's seat, negotiating with Aiyuk and his agent, I wouldn't bring up the Purdy stats. Instead, I'd bring up those of Texans WR
Nico Collins.
Collins enjoyed a 2023 breakout much like Aiyuk, perhaps one even more surprising. But Collins is just one year younger than Aiyuk and fills a very similar role. Under Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who came from San Francisco and runs an offense reminiscent of Shanahan's, Collins is the same primary receiver that Aiyuk is for the 49ers. Let's compare the production of the two young players
It's worth noting the differences: Collins got shallower targets and produced more yards after the catch, while Aiyuk got targets further downfield with less YAC. But there will always be differences between two receivers, even in similar roles in similar offenses. The connective tissue here is as strong as it gets in the NFL.
Of course, in a vacuum, this isn't really an issue. Collins being very, very good doesn't change the fact that Aiyuk is also very, very good. Both should get big fat contracts to reflect their recent excellence and rosy futures.
The issue is Collins
just signed a contract extension. With one year left on his previous deal, he signed a three-year, $72.75 million extension in May, an average of only $24.25 million per year. And if the words "only $24.25 million per year" seem absolutely preposterous to you, I get it, but Collins took less than Smith got on his extension in April. That $24.25 million average ranked seventh among receivers at the time it was signed, and has only been kicked further down the list by more recent extensions. It's this contract that would give me pause before handing Aiyuk a blank check.
I don't know exactly what contract Aiyuk is pursuing from the 49ers, but ESPN's Mike Reiss reported that the Patriots were willing to pay Aiyuk
$32 million per year should he accept a trade to the Patriots (
Aiyuk declined). That's top-three WR money, and it's reasonable to expect the 49ers and Aiyuk are negotiating somewhere in that range.
Again, it makes sense that Aiyuk wants that money. All the other young receivers around him are getting paid, or are holding out to get it done. But the riddle for Lynch to solve is this: What percentage of Aiyuk's production belongs to his individual excellence, his talent level? What percentage of it is the result of playing on an elite offense with so many other weapons to account for? And what percentage of it is the result of playing for perhaps the preeminent offensive mind of this generation?
The success of Collins is a cautionary tale. Maybe it's much easier to be a highly efficient and explosive receiver in this role than it appears. Maybe succeeding in this position warrants $24 million per year, not $34 million -- top-10 wide receiver money, not top-three.
Even against an ever-rising cap ceiling, that $10 million is not an insignificant amount for San Francisco. The
impending Purdy extension looms over their checkbooks. Because Purdy was not a first-round pick, he has no fifth-year option attached to his contract; his four-year deal is up after the 2025 season, and he's eligible for an extension in March.
