I'll be honest..those are some fairly decent odds on Reyes. Jones is definitely the safe bet, but Reyes is a KO artist with 9/12 of his wins via first round finishes.
The only thing he lacks in this fight is championship experience. He could very well freeze under the lights. I think it ends up being a good fight and a rematch immediately ordered. If he freezes up then Jones could very well finish him on the ground in the first round. I think he comes to fight though.