I don't buy it. If you're China you just witnessed Russia's global status and army get decimated by the US State Department and military weaponry. In a war that is essentially a home game against Ukraine. The US has been on the ground in Taiwan training their military for quite some time, they're heavily armed, and while the logistics of re-supplying Taiwan will be harder than re-supplying Ukraine it's not a herculean task.
China is significantly more rational and intelligent than Russia's government. I can't imagine them risking military conflict anymore in the near term. Economic and covid concerns are too dangerous right now. And frankly even if they didn't have those issues I don't think military conflict would be their ideal approach here. They could take Taiwan without firing a shot, over time.
Only accurate post in here.
If China tries to do anything militarily to Taiwan, off rip is going to attempt a blockade. That's one of the primary reasons why they want the island, they can control shipping traffic in the South China Sea.
The moment they do that, the US and west aren't to fire a single shell. They're just going to transfer funds from bank accounts.
Yeah...it will painful for the West, because yes China "assembles" materials for the West. Anyone who know anything about "manufacturing" knows that it's a global system. One country doesn't do everything, and China is no different. We're all in bed together. The difference and the reason why this would be incredibly dumb for China to do in the near term is China is in a much more vulnerable spot than the US and most NATO islands is because
- China doesn't grow most of their food or produce their own oil, a blockade on Taiwan creates a blockade on them. The oil stops, the food stops, the import of raw materials and complex materials stops going into China.
- China's economy is on shakier ground than the US. They are in more debt than the US.
- Their military isn't battle tested. Their last conflict was with Vietnam and they got their ass handed to them in the late 70s.
- Taiwan will burn the island down before China gets any boots on the ground.
- If China wanted to do anything militarily, it would be painfully obvious what they were doing months before and Taiwan would just fortify. It wouldn't be an easy time, but if Taiwan even knows what's going down 3 months before it occurs, Taiwan can fight back a lot of their forces. Invasions are incredibly tough to do, even more so when you see it happening months before it happens.
- Taiwan doesn't have nukes, but they've got plenty of missiles and air force too. People seem to forget yeah...Taiwan is 100 miles off the cost of China...but umm...China is 100 miles from Taiwan. If you don't think Taiwan wouldn't light up Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Fousho, Quangzhao AND A GANG of other 10 million plus cities you ain't never heard of then you really ain't looking at this objectively.
Not saying China won't inevitably try anything, but they need stronger regional partners before they can...their only guaranteed partnership is from North Korea. They need to lock up Pakistan, Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia before they can even think about doing this forcefully.