Dameon Farrow
Superstar
The election feels like a big gap because Kamala has momentum, but honestly it's still way too close to call. Kamala hasn't pulled out to a lead in Pennsylvania yet, she absolutely needs that AND Wisconsin (where she leads but Wisconsin always bucks the polls recently). If she doesn't get Pennsylvania, then she still needs to hold onto Wisconsin AND pull both Arizona and Georgia, where the race is still basically tied. Trump at the moment is right in position to win or lose by a couple thousand votes. I'd say it's 50-50 at the moment yet people are treating it like it's 90-10 in Kamala's favor.
Back in 2016, Hillary had a 7-point lead in August that shrunk to 1 just a month later. She then pulled out to another 7-point lead in October that shrunk to just 3 the week before election day. In the end she won by 2%.....but lost the electoral college by 80.
No Comey hailmary this time. I think folks really underestimate that email nonsense for Hillary in '16. Or they ignore its impact because they are unhappy over Bernie. That's bad on here and I have a theory regarding it.
I'd be really shocked if she doesn't get PA and WI. Like many of the swing states 45 didn't win them by some incredible margin in '16. Which is why he didn't retake them in '20.
Edit : also gonna be another surprise state to go blue this cycle. Haven't narrowed it down to see which one it'll be this go round yet.