The Russian Invasion of Ukraine has Begun. Its on.

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Norway will join the sanctions against Russia, as reported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Scandinavian state

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According to the Foreign Minister Børge Brende, Norway will implement the same restrictive measures, as the EU. In particular, it will expand the list of persons and companies whose financial assets in the country will be frozen. With respect to individuals there will also be imposed visa sanctions.

On July 31 the EU imposed sanctions against Sberbank, VTB, “Russian Agricultural Bank”, VEB and “Gazprombank”. EU companies and citizens are prohibited from buying or selling new shares, bonds or similar financial instruments with a maturity of over 90 days. In addition to that, there are restrictions on the supply to Russia of military related goods and equipment for the offshore industry.

“Even after the tragedy of July 17 when a plane Malaysian got shot down, Russia, even though it has changed its behavior, still continued to destabilize the situation in the eastern regions of Ukraine,” – said Brenda.

On August 13 the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will open a hotline for questions of the business community on the consequences of future sanctions.

Full material:http://vl-news.com/politics/norway-joins-the-sanctions-against-russia-0000331.html
 

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France says Russian convoy to Ukraine may be "cover" for incursion
Source: Reuters - Tue, 12 Aug 2014 06:46 AMAuthor: Reuters
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PARIS, Aug 12 (Reuters) - French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said on Tuesday that a Russian convoy of 280 trucks en route to Ukraine could be an attempt by Moscow to install a permanent presence in the country.

"We must be extremely careful because this could be a cover for the Russians to install themselves near Lugansk and Donetsk and put us before a done deed," he told France Info radio. "This (convoy) is only possible, only justifiable, if the Red Cross authorises it."

(Reporting By Nicholas Vinocur; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

http://www.trust.org/item/20140812063849-4my3u/
 

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Can Europe Survive Without Russian Gas?






Source: Visual Capitalist

As Saxo Bank notes,



Tensions rise in Eastern Europe, as the western world hits Russia with new sanctions. Late last month, President Obama and the European Union imposed sanctions in hopes of deterring President Putin from further aggression and putting an end to his support of Ukrainian separatists.



The aim of previous sanctions was to focus on specific individuals and businesses, while the newest ones are aimed at major pillars of the Russian economy. The oil industry is a major target, as Russia has become the world’s largest oil producer and it accounts for a large portion of the Russian economy.



However, the sanctions against Russia do not target the country’s natural gas sector or its state-owned Gazprom, as about one-third of Europe’s gas supplies come from Russia. Last year, Gazprom exported 162 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe.



The escalations in oil sanctions have the potential for major price hikes for Europe, especially since the winter season approaches, which is the peak gas consumption period. If Russia cuts off gas to Europe, then many nations will be scrambling to find alternative gas suppliers and it will inevitably drive up prices.



Also, President Putin signed a $20 billion oil deal with Iran to mitigate western oil sanctions. The deal will see the two nations cooperate on the production and sale of oil, and Russia will help develop Iran’s energy infrastructure and equipment.
 

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Russia Sanctions Blowback: Finland's Largest Dairy Lays Off 800, Spain Seeks EU Aid, Poland Complains To WTO

Russia announced its ban on Western nation food imports, European countries are scrambling (as we explained why here). Greece has already expressed dismay, but


now Spanish officials will meet with EU leaders to discuss offsetting the country’s estimated up to $800 million in food and agriculture losses due to sanctions. Poland is pissed and has complained to the WTO claiming "Russia has broken international law in both its embargo;" andFinland's largest dairy producer has announced 800 layoffs due to the sanctions. When does Europe tell Washington - enough!



Spain demands aid... (despite Rajoy's support for anti-Russia sanctions)



Spanish Agriculture Minister Isabel Garcia Tejerina said the restrictions have prompted her ministry to convene a meeting with the European Commission in Brussels on Thursday.



...



The Spanish government has estimated that agricultural losses will amount to €337 million, or about 1.8 percent of Spanish exports. Other groups, like Spain’s opposition Socialist Party, have estimated the losses to be higher- €581 million.



Last year, 37,000 tons of tomatoes, 35,000 tons of peaches, and 33,000 tons of mandarin oranges were exported from Spain to Russia, according to Spain’s Small Farmer’s Association (UPA).



“The decision that was adopted involves many political issues that exist between Russia and the European Union, and not just the EU. As a result, it may be necessary to compensate us for these political decisions - the producers who work all year and want to at least be paid enough at least to cover production costs,” Lorenzo Ramos, Secretary General of UPA, told RT.

Finland suffers...



The largest Finnish dairy producer Valio send a forced leave of the staff with factories working for export to Russia. This is stated in the message of concern.



Restructuring will affect Finnish enterprises' Valio: Plant in Haapavesi ( cheese Oltermanni), Seinäjoki ( oil Valio), Vantaa ( cream cheese Viola) and warehouse in Lappeenranta. Concern revise employment contracts of all the employees of these companies. " Some of the staff ( according to preliminary estimates, 800 people) can go on forced leave to fully clarify the situation, with a portion of employees will not be renewed temporary employment contracts, "- said in a statement.

Poland complains...



Poland's agriculture minister went on television to announce the country was taking action against Russia's new import ban. "We believe Russia has broken international law in both its embargo against Poland and its embargo against the EU," Marek Sawicki said.



Russia banned the import of Polish fruit and vegetables in early August - a move Sawicki said would cost Poland 0.6 percent of GDP.



...



"If a WTO member state believes another WTO member state has taken a measure that is not in conformity with WTO rules, the affected WTO member state may request mediation," attorney and WTO expert Eric Pickett said.

And the Czechs are in for some EU assistance...

  • *ZEMAN BACKS EU AID TO CZECH AGRICULTURAL COS. AFTER SANCTIONS
 

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Latest update : 2014-08-13

Hundreds of Russian aid trucks bound for rebel-held east Ukraine halted in the southern Russian city of Voronezh on Wednesday after Kiev said they would not be allowed to cross the border before being vetted by the Red Cross.
The estimated 280 white vehicles lay idle at a Voronezh military base after driving there from the outskirts of Moscow the day before.

“First they send tanks, Grad missiles and terrorists, criminals, who fire on Ukrainians – and then they send water and salt?” outgoing Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk incredulously asked a government meeting on Wednesday.

"The level of Russian cynicism knows no bounds," he said.

Kiev and Western powers – including the United States, the European Union as well as NATO – have expressed concern that Russia might use an aid convoy as cover for a military invasion to help the pro-Russian separatists that are now losing ground to Ukrainian government forces.

The UN said Wednesday that the death toll in fighting between Ukrainian forces and pro-Moscow rebels had doubled in the last two weeks to more than 2,000.

Ukraine and Russia had tentatively agreed that aid would be delivered to a government-controlled crossing in Ukraine’s Kharkiv province. Ukraine has insisted that all aid coming from Russia must be vetted by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). Officials in Kiev said Tuesday that the aid cargo could be unloaded at the border and loaded onto vehicles operated by the Red Cross.

But Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the plan to unload the vehicles was rejected for being too costly.

An ICRC spokeswoman in Geneva said Russia had provided a "general list" of the convoy's cargo to Ukrainian authorities and the ICRC, but said the aid agency needed a more detailed inventory and that logistical details still needed to be hammered out.

"A number of important issues still need to be clarified between the two sides, including border crossing procedures, customs clearance and other issues," Anastasia Isyuk said.

Convoy destined for Luhansk

The estimated 2,000 metric tonnes of aid, which reportedly includes goods ranging from baby food to portable generators, is intended for civilians in the Luhansk region, the scene of some of the fiercest fighting.

The regional capital of Luhansk has had no electricity for 11 days and only the most essential goods are available, city authorities said.

Intense fighting is still taking place in the main rebel-held city of Donetsk. Government troops have laid siege to Donetsk and nearby rebel holdings in their push to quash the pro-Russian insurgency. They have largely refrained from street-to-street fighting, instead favouring artillery fire.

At least 12 volunteer militiamen from the nationalist Right Sector group, fighting alongside government troops, were killed in an ambush outside the besieged city, a spokesman for the movement said Wednesday. Inside the city, at least three people were killed overnight Tuesday as the government intensified its shelling.

Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said Wednesday that 11 servicemen were killed in the previous day’s fighting, but he could not immediately say whether the casualties included the Right Sector militiamen.

(FRANCE 24 with AP and REUTERS)

http://www.france24.com/en/20140813-russian-aid-convoy-halts-before-crossing-ukrainian-border/
 

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45000 troops? sounds like a invasion force

lets be real, putin might as well get to it, we all know he wants the ukraine
 

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August 13, 2014 2:14 pm

Europe’s peach growers feel pain of Russian sanctions
By Christian Oliver in Brussels, Ian Mount in Barcelona and Kerin Hope in Athens©AFP
Josep Presseguer had already dispatched 350 tonnes of peaches and nectarines on the road to Russia when the Kremlin announced its sanctions on EU food last week.

The chief executive of Fruits de Ponent said he had to summon his two dozen trucks back to headquarters in the Catalan town of Alcarràs, where he is now under pressure to find new buyers before his fruit rots into compost.

“That’s the question of the age: what happens with the fruit?” Mr Presseguer asks. “It’s going to cause a huge stock problem. We’d have to sell a lot of fruit at a very low price.”

Moscow’s embargo in response to last month’s sanctions by the EU and US has compounded problems for Mediterranean peach farmers who were already on their knees, suffering from a supply glut caused by unusual weather conditions. Mr Presseguer, who sends 25 per cent of his produce to Russia, was unambiguous about the possible impact: “It could be a disaster,” he said starkly.

Although 10 per cent of EU food exports traditionally head to Russia, officials in Brussels are increasingly confident that the agonies of the stoned-fruit sector will be an anomaly in the latest trade war between Brussels and Moscow. With some assistance, other EU farmers will ride out the storm and find new markets, they argue.

Much of the cautious optimism in Brussels is based on the case of pork – one of Europe’s leading food exports to Russia. Pig meat exports to Russia have been banned since the beginning of the year, with Moscow citing fears about swine flu, but European producers have been able to switch shipments to Asia, particularly South Korea and the Philippines.

Westfleisch, a meat marketing company owned by a co-operative of roughly 4,000 pork and beef farmers, located mainly in northwest Germany, said the embargo was “painful for German producers but not a disaster”. It responded to the ban by increasing sales in Europe.

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As the biggest meat exporter to Russia, Germany has struck a defiant tone. Christian Schmidt, agriculture minister, said the effects of Russia’s embargo would be “visible” but that he had “no fears of these sanctions causing market upheavals”.

The EU last year exported €11.9bn of farm goods to Russia, but Brussels calculates that only €5.3bn of these would have been affected by the ban. Meat accounted for €1.2bn of exports, with a fifth coming from Germany.

However, meat has limitations as a blueprint for diversification – it can be frozen and slaughtering can be delayed. The Netherlands and Finland are more vulnerable in the dairy sector, where they had exports to Russia of €257m and €253m respectively last year.

In terms of overall national exposure to the Russian measures, the hardest-hit countries, in relation to their value of exports, will be Lithuania and Poland. Last year, Lithuania exported €927m of products that would have been hit by this year’s ban; Poland exported €841m.

Poland has been badly hit by a ban on its fruit exports to Russia (worth €340m last year) and Poles have launched a campaign to boost domestic consumption called “Eat an apple to spite Putin”.

67c3c702-22d5-11e4-8dae-00144feabdc0.img
©Reuters
Poland and Finland are seeking EU compensation for any losses. EU officials admit that eastern European countries may have more logistical problems in diversifying than western ones, but add that it is too early to discuss emergency funds when the quest for new markets has only just begun.

Still, farm experts from all 28 EU states will meet in Brussels on Thursday and will discuss how they may ultimately be able to deploy crisis reserves of €420m to help producers.

The EU has vowed it will not retaliate against Russia with tit-for-tat measures but has said that it will, officially, ask countries such as Brazil, Chile and Turkey not to fill the gap left by European exports to Russia. In private, officials are not worried if major countries do shift their exports to Russia, as any shake-up in trade routes will create new markets for EU exporters.

The EU announced steps to offer some financial support to peach and nectarine farmers this week. In 2013, Spain was the main exporter of stoned fruit to Russia, selling €75m-worth. Greece sold €49m-worth.

But the EU’s support measures were of little consolation to Costas Tamvakaris, who spent Tuesday morning with his family picking peaches in their orchard in Naoussa, a village in northern Greece.

“It’s a catastrophe . . . We’re at the peak of the harvest and the cold-storage warehouse is overflowing with fruit that we can’t sell,” said Mr Tamvakaris, who is president of the local fruit-growers’ co-operative.

His crop normally sells at premium prices in supermarkets in Moscow and St Petersburg “but now it is almost certainly heading for the dump”, he complained.

Additional reporting by Stefan Wagstyl

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http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ecbf...44feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3AKicvboi
 

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A Bunch Of Russian Military Vehicles Have Just Crossed Into Ukraine
  • AUG. 14, 2014, 2:54 PM
  • 21,990
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A column of Russian armored personnel carriers (APCs) has reportedly crossed Russia's border with Ukraine. The APCs had earlier been seen traveling alongside a supposed Russian humanitarian convoy headed towards Ukraine's conflict-torn east.

Evidence of Russian troop movement over the border supports the Ukrainian claim that Russian soldiers have been actively supporting pro-Moscow separatist militants in the region.

The Guardian's Moscow correspondent, Shaun Walker, and The Telegraph's Roland Oliphant witnessed the APC convoy cross over the border alongside other military vehicles bearing official Russian military license plates.






The APCs had been traveling with a humanitarian aid convoy of unmarked white trucks that Vladimir Putin's government was sending to Ukraine. Military vehicles, including anti-aircraft weapons and helicopters, started driving alongside the convoy earlier on Thursday.

Most of the fleet of more than 262 vehicles within the humanitarian convoy, including about 200 trucks carrying aid, stopped 15 miles from the border of Ukraine's rebel-held eastern region of Luhansk. The convoy had been sent to go through a Ukrainian-held border crossing by the city of Kharkhiv, but it unexpectedly changed course and instead stopped by the separatist-held Izvaryne border crossing.



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Jeremy Bender/Google Maps





The Izvaryne crossing is likely the site that the Russians used to transport the BUK missile battery which was used to down MH17 in July into Ukraine. After the humanitarian convoy stopped by Izvaryne, the fleet of APCs continued into Ukraine after nightfall.





Walker does not believe that the APCs constitute an invasion force. Instead, this movement of Russian forces into Ukraine could be a continuation of an ongoing Russian policy along the border, where Moscow has constantly pushed the limits of Ukrainian sovereignty in its attempts to aid pro-Russian separatists inside the country.





Russia could be using the APCs in order to create supply corridors throughout eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian military had been encircling the key separatist-held cities of Luhansk and Donetsk in an effort to cut off the flow of supplies to the rebels. By opening a supply corridor to these cities, Russia could continue to arm the separatists with minimal direct military involvement.

Four months of fighting in the east have produced a humanitarian crisis in parts of eastern Ukraine. People in the main cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, on the border with Russia, are suffering acute shortages of water, food, and electricity.




NSDC

The military situation in Ukraine, according to Kiev.



The past few weeks have seen significant government successes against rebels who have abandoned a string of towns under heavy fire. Kiev says rebel leaders, some of whom are ethnic Russians and who seek union with Russia, are receiving arms from Moscow, something the Kremlin denies.


The approach of the convoy presents Kiev with a dilemma.

Ukraine says it fears the convoy could become the focus of tension and conflict once on it arrives on Ukrainian soil. Kiev worries it could provide the pretext for a Russian armed incursion.

At the same time, Kiev does not want to seem to be blocking aid and providing a basis for further Kremlin action.

Moscow, which sees Russian-speakers in the east as living under threat from a government it considers to be fascist and chauvinistic, said any suggestion of a link between the convoy and an invasion plan was absurd.

The humanitarian convoy is traveling under the signal of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). However, the convoy has raised suspicions after it was assembled on Russian military bases. The ICRC has said that it has no information as to what the convoy is transporting.

"At the moment it is not an International Red Cross convoy, inasmuch as we haven't had sight of the material, we haven't had certain information regarding the content, and the volume of aid that it contains," ICRC spokesman Ewan Watson told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on Tuesday.

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen warned on Monday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was a "high probability" and that it would take place under the "guise of a humanitarian operation."

Russia has continued to increase its military presence along the Ukrainian border despite international pressure. There are an estimated 20,000 Russian troops currently deployed along Ukraine's eastern border who are "capable of a wide spectrum of military operations," according to Pentagon press secretary Navy Rear Admiral John Kirby.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-military-vehicles-crossed-into-ukraine-2014-8#ixzz3AP6MK4wa
 

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"Anti-Putin" Alliance Fraying: Germany, Slovenia, Greece, Czech Republic Urge End To Russian Sanctions

GDP declined by 0.2%, worse than Wall Street consensus. This happened a few shorts days after Italy reported a second consecutive decline in its own GDP, becoming the first Europen country to enter a triple-dip recession. What's worse, Europe's slowdown took place before the brunt of Russian sanctions hit. Surely in the third quarter the GDP of Germany, a nation whose exports accounts for 41% of GDP, will be even worse, with whisper numbers of -1% being thrown casually around, but one thing is certain: Europe is about to enter its third recession since the Lehman collapse just as we forecast at the end of 2013, a "triple-dip" which may become an outright depression unless Draghi injects a few trillion in credit money (which will do nothing but delay the inevitable and make it that much worse once the can can no longer be kicked), and unless normal trade ties with Russia are restored.

Which means one thing: for Europe to resume the status quo, it needs to break away from the "western" alliance and the sanctions imposed upon the Kremlin which solely benefit the populist agenda of Washington, and certainly not Europe proper, which it is now quite clear, is far more reliant on Russia than vice versa. it is also something Putin apparently was aware of from the very beginning.

And now, that realization is starting to spread to Europe's own countries, which - while the new cold war was only one of rhetoric were perfectly happy to go for the ride - but now that trade war has finally broken out, suddenly increasingly more want out.

As we reported previously, it all started with the Greeks, a nation of heavy food exports into Russia, who were the first to announced their displeasure with the "Stop Putin" coalition:



the moment Russia retaliated, the grand alliance started to crack. Enter Greece which hashundreds of millions in food exports to Russia, and which was the first country to hint that it may splinter from the western "pro-sanctions" alliance. According to Bloomberg, earlier today the Greek foreign minister and former PM said that "we are in continuous deliberations in order to have the smallest possible consequences, and if possible no significant impact whatsoever."



...



And making it very clear that this will be a major political issue was a statement by the main opposition party Syriza which today said that the Greek government's "blind obedience to the Cold War strategies of Brussels and Washington will be disastrous for country’s agriculture." In a moment of surprising clarity, Syriza asked govt to immediately lift all sanctions to Russia, as they don’t contribute to a solution of the Ukrainian crisis, and "instead fuel an economic and trade war, in which Greece has unfortunately become involved." Syriza concluded that the government hasn’t weighted Greece’s special interests and bilateral relations with Russia.

Then it was Slovenia whose premier Robert Fico criticized Ukraine for preparing sanctions against Russian persons and companies, and he has called on Ukraine not to approve them, expressing concerns that the legislation could result in a halt to natural gas supplies.



If the conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalates, the legal norm could cause interruption of natural gas supplies to Slovakia (and to Western Europe) via Ukraine from Russia, he said.



Slovakia depends on supplies of Russian gas. However, if gas supplies via Ukraine were interrupted, Slovakia would get gas through backflow from the West.



"It is strange that a country that has signed an association agreement with the EU and which we are trying to help is taking one-sided steps that endanger the individual economic interests of EU member countries, instead of coordinating its approach with the EU," Fico said.



"We do not want to be a hostage in the Russian-Ukrainian problem. We expect Ukraine not to adopt formal steps that, if implemented, can endanger our interests. A country that has signed the association agreement should not behave like that," Fico declared.

Poland too complained last week, however for now it finds the fault not with the "alliance" but with Russia for daring to retaliate to western sanctions.



Poland's agriculture minister went on television to announce the country was taking action against Russia's new import ban. "We believe Russia has broken international law in both its embargo against Poland and its embargo against the EU," Marek Sawicki said. Russia banned the import of Polish fruit and vegetables in early August - a move Sawicki said would cost Poland 0.6 percent of GDP.



...



"If a WTO member state believes another WTO member state has taken a measure that is not in conformity with WTO rules, the affected WTO member state may request mediation," attorney and WTO expert Eric Pickett said.

Good luck. It is only a matter of time before this futile anger at Putin turns not to the logical response to sanctions, but at the instigator of the sanctions themselves.

Then it was most vibrant economy in central Europe, the Czech Republic, where overnight the finance minister voiced the loudest anger at Russian sanctions yet. From Bloomberg:

  • SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA MAKE NO SENSE, CZECH FINANCE MINISTER SAYS
And finally, it is the country whose fate is what this conflict is all about, because should Germany decide it has had enough of DC's geopolitical brinksmanship, one which always "costs" European allies far more than it does the US, and aligns with the Russia-China-India axis, then the "Eurasian Crescent" will be complete, and the countdown to reserve currency transition may officially begin.

Sure enough, Bloomberg reports that sanctions against Russia are hurting sentiment at German companies, according to Focus magazine which cites the BGA Federation of German Wholesale and Foreign Trade, and the DIHK German Association of Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

According to the magazine, "loss of trust in Russian partners is hurting business more than the sanctions themselves, as German companies cut trade more than required."

The implications are clear: cost-benefit analysis has shifted too far to the left, and while Germany was ok with supporting the "west" in its game of escalating sanctions vs Putin, at this point there is no further support, and in fact the pendulum is starting to swing in the opposite direction.

So with increasingly more eastern and central European nations vocally opining against Russian sanctions, and with the Ukraine government now clearly engaging in open provocations to curry popular support for some unfathomable warmongering cause (unless of course it can provide evidence it did indeed destroy a Russian military convoy on its territory), how long until the "western" alliance finally folds under its own weight and has no choice but to roll back the sanctions and de-escalate, in the process handing Putin the biggest diplomatic knockout round yet?



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