The Official FIFA World Cup Thread - QATAR 2022

[ADP]

theres two strategies:

most confident player takes it 1st or 5th

1st to start the shootout the right way

5th to close it and possibly the biggest pressure

Argentina and Holland chose the captains to start it
Croatia breaks the norm and has Modric 3rd
Neymar was meant to go 5th


Now theres also the glory angle, a lot of stars go 5th to stand out more during the possible celebration

Personally would go with the 1st as theres a chance you wont make it to 5th


Messi Van Dijk and Modric (3rd one is also pretty much guaranteed to try his chance, 100% if their team shoots first) had their oppoetunity while Neymar didn't...

 

[null]

But all that changes after the team misses one. It’s all good when the team is scoring all, and you take the decisive fifth penalty.

Look at the Netherlands penalty shootout for example. After missing the first two kicks, does it still make sense for the star man to wait and play the fifth penalty? No

not sure that flipping players around in the order is good for preparedness and psychology.

in the past the order was fixed. i am reading that the order is decided by the manager but not fixed these days.

so I will accept not fixed.

Now look at the Brazil shootout, that Marquinhos penalty was do or die, it didn’t make any sense for Neymar to not take it. In that situation, that was the fifth penalty. You score and hope your keeper keeps you in the game.

given that the order could be changed ....

it must be a combination of

i. the fact that sudden death comes after the 3rd pen at earliest so your takers are more likely to score than miss (good takers, in reverse skill order)
ii. that the stress degradation of successive is greater than the marginal gain of swapping them around for the current one.

so lets says sudden death 1 and 2 SD1, SD2 with M = 60% SD1, 45% SD2 ikely to score N = 70% SD1, 70% SD2

N takes and scores SD1 but M was also likely to score so we have wasted that marginal as SD2 is so pressurised that M is more likely to miss than score.

As for ops percentages we can use broad scoring numbers (like from the chart above).

I’m not trying to argue, I’m just pointing out the flaw in the logic

 

[phcitywarrior]

Argentina England for the fukkery.
Argentina Portugal for it to be legendary.

Yea at this point it has to be. I got Argentina over Croatia. Portugal got the firepower to go toe to toe with England or France but I have questions about Pepe…

I believe the tie between France and England will determine the eventual champions but I did have a dream of Portugal lifting this sht.

I kid you not but I think Argentina gonna shythouse their way to the title

 

[TheAlbionist]

Man could argue about penalty shootout strategy until the USA lift that cup, but there's only two things that matter:

1. International footballers should ALL have a confident penalty in their locker. If you don't, why are you accepting a World Cup call up?

2. You don't get more points for scoring with a trickshot, so don't run the risk of becoming your nation's hate figure for the next four years by dancing I'm A Little Tea Pot before hitting the perfect Rabona right into row Z.

All the rest is down to the Gods. Personally I think you call audibles in a situation like Brazil today, but when it's not your day, it's not your day - you learn to accept that as an England fan - Pens are a tie-breaker that's a tiny bit less random than a coin toss - there's never any shame in losing to a tie-breaker, it just fukking stings for a few days/weeks/months ok so I'm still pretty cut up about 1990.

 

[Spade]

That Dutch second goal setup reminded me of what the US nearly pulled off from the 2014 World Cup against Belgium.

 

[blues_funk_reggae]

That Dutch second goal setup reminded me of what the US nearly pulled off from the 2014 World Cup against Belgium.

I was thinking the same thing. if only it wasn't Wondowloski at the end of it

edit: Actually I got that wrong, I'm thinking of another play

 

[phillycavsfan]

Holy shyt if this news is true all hell is about to break loose. Conspiracies are going to be everywhere.

 

[Hoodoo Child]

is there a GOAT ahlete who isnt a POS? maybe Roger

Secretariat

 

[So UnThotful]

Word is, dude died today in Qatar

 

[concise]

yea, seeing this on my timeline, shocked as hell

 

[thaKEAF]

 

[K-Apps]

 

[Roid Jones]

Yo WTF!!!!

 

[concise]

Coincidence or not, this is going to cause a whole lot of unneeded talk now.

 

[beejus]

Just heard that journalist Grant Wahl died in Qatar.

Some loved him and some hated him, but this is wild. He was very outspoken about gay rights while there in Qatar.