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Jahlil Okafor came into the season with all the hype -- and he hasn't disappointed. Duke's 6-foot-10, 270-pound freshman came out of the gates with a 19-point performance in his college debut, and he's averaging 18.2 points and 9.3 rebounds per game this season.
Okafor is a rarity in this era: a true low-post player who knows his strengths and doesn't try to be something he's not. Blue Devils coach Mike Krzyzewski made no secret of his intention to play through Okafor, and that's what he has done most of the season.
Despite being just a freshman, Okafor has been nearly unstoppable in the paint, and while he's not a high-flying athlete, he is unique to some degree due to his size and ability to score around the basket.
While so many big men these days yearn to show people they can shoot from the perimeter, Okafor has yet to attempt a 3-pointer in his college career. He's making nearly 67 percent of his shots from the field and has scored in double figures in every game thus far.
We reached out to a trio of college big men, including fellow national player of the year candidate Frank Kaminsky, to go "Player on Player" with Okafor and ask how they would defend the big man, what he needs to work on, and various other topics.
Jahlil Okafor does most of his damage on the block -- and that has been the case since he burst onto the national scene as a high schooler. Okafor has tremendous footwork, great hands and has a wide array of moves in the post.
So, how do you stop him on the block?
Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky: "In the college game, you have to double-team him when he catches the ball. If you give him time, he's going to find a way to score -- whether he goes around or over you."
Louisville's Montrezl Harrell: "You can't let him catch the ball freely. He has great footwork with his size and can get a lot of bigs in foul trouble because people don't think he's as quick as he is. The main way to stop him is to get him in an all-out front and not let him catch it."
Notre Dame's Zach Auguste: "I've got a lot of respect for him. He can really pound you and bully you. You've got to push him off the block and get him as far away from the basket as possible. Let him play his game out there. The closer he is, the easier it is for him."
While Okafor's offensive game is incredibly mature, Duke's big man has received criticism on the other end of the floor. He's not overly quick, and he has been prone to giving up easy buckets.
How do you attack him?
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Kaminsky: "He's got long arms, is athletic for his size and has good timing. He can make up for a lot of mistakes and is a rim protector. For me, I try and take him away from the basket. Try and make him a screener. You're not going to win the battle going against him in the post."
Harrell: "Pull him to the 15-to-16 feet mark and go at him off the bounce. One or two dribbles. Make your first step quick. It's tough for him to move laterally because he's the only true five-man they have. Go at him early, and he's not going to play solid defense."
Auguste: "He plays a lot of minutes, so I'm sure he doesn't want to pick up fouls. You've got to be aggressive and go right at him."
Okafor is incredibly skilled, is big and strong and has a great feel for how to score. He wasted no time acclimating himself to the college game. He'd been hyped up for years prior to ever arriving in Durham, and there were legitimate questions whether he'd live up to those lofty expectations.
What's the most impressive aspect of Okafor?
Kaminsky: "He doesn't back down and lose confidence at any point for a young guy. My first couple years I didn't have that confidence. He's got that confidence and swagger."
Harrell: "He's really trimmed down a lot from when I played with him on the USA Basketball team. His footwork was good, but it's gotten a lot better."
Auguste: "His size and skill set. With his body, he can move. For a kid his size, his footwork is incredible."
Just about every college basketball player has a weakness, especially freshmen. For most, it's on the defensive end of the court. Okafor has two that stand out to his foes.
What's his weakness?
Kaminsky: "I've got to think about this one. He's going to be the No. 1 pick in the draft for a reason. Personally, I didn't know how good he was coming into college. But he has proven it. I'd say he needs to work on his shot. He hit one on me. If he could add a turnaround, he's be nearly impossible to stop."
Harrell: "Moving laterally on pick-and-rolls and having to guard off the bounce."
Auguste: "I guess from 15 feet and out, and putting it on the floor out there. He really can't do it now, but I think he can work on that. Also on the defensive end, guarding the pick-and-roll."
Okafor is not a big-time, high-flying athlete -- a la Willie Cauley-Stein or Montrezl Harrell. He has gotten quicker and more explosive in the past year, but he's still considered an average or slightly above-average athlete.
How much does his athleticism limit him?
Kaminsky: "Athleticism is overrated. If you've got the skill, the mindset and the IQ, you can make up for it. He really understands the game, and he's only [19]."
Harrell: "I don't feel like it hurts him any. Not many people think he's that quick on his first step. He's big, but he's agile and can move -- with the ball and without."
Auguste: "I don't think it hurts him that much. He rebounds the heck out of it, and he's got that big body. He gets up and down the floor well for someone his size."
Okafor is a legitimate 270 pounds and carries it well. He's a guy who can just back opponents down in the post, and is also more than capable of holding his ground on the defensive end.
How physical is he?
Kaminsky: "He was every bit of what he's listed at -- 6-11 and 270. He's a load. I'm not weak, but he's really strong. Even with my best effort, he's tough to stop. He's just so big and strong."
Harrell: "He's real strong. He's a big, strong guy. Big, tough, physical guy. He knows the game."
Auguste: "He's a lot stronger than you'd expect, especially for a freshman. He's young, but he's so strong and physical. He's physically intimidating at times. It's crazy to see a kid that young be so strong."
Okafor came into college basketball as a guy who was picked by many as the national preseason player of the year, and also a guy who most NBA draft experts anticipate will go first overall come June.
What are your thoughts on how he has handled the expectations?
Kaminsky: "He's handled it well, obviously. He's a top player in college basketball."
Harrell: "Setting a great tone coming into college game. He just plays, and hasn't bought into what anyone says about how he's going to be projected. Especially when you're 18 and everyone says you're going to be the No. 1 pick. He's done a great job. Just having fun playing basketball."
Auguste: "He's done a great job -- and may have even exceeded the expectations people had for him. He's as good as people thought, maybe better."
Okafor is mild-mannered off the court and doesn't show a ton of emotion on the court. I've talked to him numerous times, and he's extremely intelligent and rarely says anything that would be bulletin-board material.
What's he like on the court as far as whether he talks much or not?
Kaminsky: "He didn't talk much. I'd say he's like anyone else. No smack talk, all business."
Harrell: "He not that much of a talker. He just plays for the most part."
Auguste: "He likes to talk a little trash, and he has an edge to him. He's not going to lay down for anyone, and he definitely doesn't mind talking a little bit."
FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
1
Jahlil Okafor
New York Knicks
COLLEGE: Duke
HT: 6-11
WT: 275
POS: C
Knicks' chances of winning lottery: 25 percent
The Knicks are in bad shape. Very bad shape. They don't have one player on their roster right now, other than Carmelo Anthony, who appears to be a future building block. They need another star, and they need him now. The Knicks also haven't had an All-Star-caliber center since Patrick Ewing. Currently, they don't even have a legit starter at the position. Okafor would be perfect for them. His ability to draw a double-team in the paint and potentially average 20 and 10 every night would give them a viable scoring option besides Anthony jacking up jumpers. If they can use the rest of their roughly $25 million in cap space this summer to add a wing and a young point guard, the Knicks' future will start getting brighter immediately.
2
Karl-Anthony Towns
Minnesota Timberwolves
COLLEGE: Kentucky
HT: 6-11
WT: 250
POS: C
Timberwolves' chances of winning lottery: 19.9 percent
Of the teams at the top of the draft, only the Jazz have an equal stockpile of young talent and assets. I can make a case that Flip Saunders should be in the running for Executive of the Year. The Wolves are going to be a very dangerous team in a couple of years, and adding Towns to the mix would make them even richer in talent. While D'Angelo Russell orEmmanuel Mudiay could also be great options for them, Towns' ability to protect the rim and stretch the floor would make him a valuable weapon in Saunders' arsenal, and would give the Wolves elite size at every position on the floor. The fact that Towns has been playing great of late only adds to the appeal of him going No. 2.
3
D'Angelo Russell
Philadelphia 76ers
COLLEGE: Ohio State
HT: 6-5
WT: 176
POS: PG
Sixers' chances of winning lottery: 15.6 percent
What the team needs is someone in the backcourt who can really shoot. Russell is that guy, and he would be a perfect fit next to Michael Carter-Williams in Philly. Of the guys at the top of the draft, Russell is far and away the best fit for the Sixers. If Embiid can get healthy and live up to his potential, Noel and MCW continue to develop, Saric comes over and continues his strong play from Europe, and Russell comes in as a dominant backcourt scorer in the mold of James Harden, suddenly the Sixers' future starts to look much brighter.
4
Emmanuel Mudiay
Los Angeles Lakers
COLLEGE: China
HT: 6-5
WT: 196
POS: PG
Lakers' chances of winning lottery: 11.9 percent
With Kobe Bryant out for the rest of the season, it's looking more and more likely that the Lakers will be keeping their lottery pick this year (they must send it to the Suns if it lands from 6-30). Yes, there's still a chance the lottery balls could bounce the wrong way and the Lakers have to give up the pick (17 percent to be exact) but the odds are now clearly in L.A.'s favor. Landing Mudiay would be an especially strong get for the Lakers, who have a major need at point guard. While Mudiay's season in China was cut short by an ankle injury, his combination of size, elite athleticism and raw power is reminiscent of a young Derrick Rose. He may take a little longer to adjust to the NBA after nearly a yearlong hiatus, but the combo of Mudiay and Julius Randle at least would give the Lakers a strong foundation to start to build around in the post-Kobe era.
5
Kristaps Porzingis
Orlando Magic
COLLEGE: Latvia
HT: 6-11
WT: 220
POS: PF
Magic's chances of winning lottery: 8.8 percent
The Magic were disappointed in their poor start this season, and Jacque Vaughn was the first casualty in the Magic's rebuilding process. The team has young talent at every position -- Elfrid Payton at the point, Victor Oladipo at the 2, Aaron Gordon at the 3/4,Tobias Harris at the 3/4, and Nikola Vucevic at the 5. Adding Porzingis to the mix would give them an athletic big man who can protect the rim and stretch the floor with his jumper. Think of a more athletic version of Bulls rookie Nikola Mirotic. Porzingis would be a very good fit in Orlando, and some scouts believe his upside could make him an All-Star someday.
6
Willie Cauley-Stein
Sacramento Kings
COLLEGE: Kentucky
HT: 7-0
WT: 240
POS: C
Kings' chances of winning lottery: 6.3 percent
New coach George Karl is a positive addition and will make a major impact on the culture of the team right away. What the team needs now is some defensive talent to balance out a roster filled with players who can score. The Kings especially need rim protection, and Cauley-Stein projects as one of the top, if not the top, big-man defender in the draft. He not only blocks shots but also is so athletic that he can guard three other positions on the floor. He's an unusual dude, but the talent is undeniable. The lack of offensive polish will scare some teams off, but in the case of the Kings, it's probably a good thing. He'll know his role and stick to it.
7
Kevon Looney
Utah Jazz
COLLEGE: UCLA
HT: 6-10
WT: 210
POS: PF
Jazz's chances of winning lottery: 4.3 percent
The Jazz, like the Timberwolves, are loaded with young talent right now. So the Jazz don't have any major needs that have to be addressed, freeing them up to draft the best player still on the board. Right now that's Looney, a long, versatile forward who can play the 3 and 4. He's the only freshman in the country averaging a double-double this season.
8
Myles Turner
Denver Nuggets
COLLEGE: Texas
HT: 7-0
WT: 240
POS: PF
Nuggets' chances of winning lottery: 2.8 percent
Turner, a long, athletic stretch 4 who also can protect the rim, has had a very uneven season. At times he has looked like a top-five pick, at other times he's disappeared. The Nuggets can afford to swing for the fences with Turner and hope he turns into a LaMarcus Aldridge-type in the NBA.
9
Stanley Johnson
Detroit Pistons
COLLEGE: Arizona
HT: 6-7
WT: 237
POS: SF
Pistons' chances of winning lottery: 1.5 percent
Their biggest hole is at the small forward position, and Johnson looks like a good fit there. Stan Van Gundy will want a player who can contribute right away, and Johnson is blessed with a NBA body, toughness and a motor that won't stop. The Pistons need some winners on their roster, and Johnson has won at every level.Mario Hezonja and Kelly Oubre both might have more upside, but for a team that wants to make a move for the playoffs next season, Johnson is the guy.
10
Mario Hezonja
Indiana Pacers
COLLEGE: Croatia
HT: 6-7
WT: 200
POS: SF
Pacers' chances of winning lottery: 1.4 percent
The loss of Paul George torpedoes the Pacers' chances of making a run at the playoffs this year (unless, that is, he comes back in time for the Pacers to make a late run for the 8th seed), but it does position them to add a nice young player to the mix for next season. The team really needs an athletic, sweet-shooting wing to pair with Paul George. Hezonja is both. He is an explosive leaper, an aggressive scorer and has been shooting the ball well this year in Euroleague play.
11
Kelly Oubre
Boston Celtics
COLLEGE: Kansas
HT: 6-7
WT: 204
POS: SF
Celtics' chances of winning lottery: 0.8 percent
They don't have a star on their roster, but they have a lot of hungry young talent, led by rookie Marcus Smart. Like a number of other young teams on this list, the Celtics have young players they like at every position (Smart at the point, Avery Bradley at the 2, James Young at the three, Jared Sullinger at the 4 and Kelly Olynyk and Tyler Zeller at the 5) which gives them flexibility. Oubre makes a lot of sense -- a bigger wing who can really shoot and has shown some surprisingly tenacious defense of late. Oubre might be the rawest of the top wings in the draft, but he might have the most upside.
12
Justise Winslow
Atlanta Hawks
COLLEGE: Duke
HT: 6-6
WT: 222
POS: SF
Hawks' chances of winning lottery: 0.7 percent
The Nets still are paying the price for all those championships Joe Johnson brought to Brooklyn. This year they must swap picks with the Hawks, giving Atlanta a rare chance to both compete for a title and add a lottery pick. The Hawks are built on chemistry, defense and unselfishness -- all things that Winslow brings to the table. At first scouts felt he might be the best NBA prospect of the available wings, but injuries and shooting slumps have hurt his stock. He would be a perfect fit in Atlanta --especially with DeMarre Carrollheading into free agency this summer.
13
Frank Kaminsky
Houston Rockets
COLLEGE: Wisconsin
HT: 7-0
WT: 234
POS: C
Rockets' chances of winning lottery: 0.6 percent
The Pelicans will send this pick to the Rockets if it falls between 4 and 19, a stipulation of the Omer Asik deal they did last summer. A great point guard is probably the biggest need for the Rockets right now, but they won't find him in this draft.
Another potential need is in the middle -- Houston could use a better backup for Dwight Howard. Kaminsky is appealing on a number of levels. He's an analytics darling which should appeal to GM Daryl Morey (and make Charles Barkley automatically hate him). He's a terrific shooter who can spread the floor, and he's proven to be a more-than-adequate rebounder and shot-blocker. On top of all of that, he's much more NBA-ready than many of the players on our board.
14
Devin Booker
Oklahoma City Thunder
COLLEGE: Kentucky
HT: 6-6
WT: 195
POS: SG
Thunder's chances of winning lottery: 0.5 percent
The Thunder are still hoping they find a way to sneak past the Suns for that eighth spot in the West. They currently sit just a half-game out and comparing their roster with Phoenix's, it seems like a good bet that the Thunder won't be drafting this high in late June. But if they do, shooting becomes a big need for them -- the combination of Andre Roberson, Dion Waiters, Anthony Morrow and Jeremy Lamb hasn't really panned out. Booker is widely regarded as the best shooter in the draft.
15
Jerian Grant
Charlotte Hornets
COLLEGE: Notre Dame
HT: 6-5
WT: 185
POS: PG
The Hornets are clinging to their playoff lives right now. A trade for Mo Williams was meant to shore up the point guard position in the short-term, but in the long-term they'll need someone else, unless they want to pay Williams in free agency this summer to be Kemba Walker's backup. Perhaps Grant can be what Lance Stephenson never was, a big, athletic combo guard who can power his way to the basket and keep defenses honest on the perimeter. And unlike Stephenson, Grant has a winning pedigree.
16
Malik Pope
Philadelphia 76ers
COLLEGE: San Diego State
HT: 6-10
WT: 205
POS: SF
The Sixers get this pick from the Heat via the Cavs and I think they could end up using it to swing for the fences. I know Pope is averaging just 4.7 points in 13.5 minutes per game for San Diego State this year. He doesn't start. I know he missed his final two years of high school with leg injuries. But the talent? It's oozing from him. He's crazy-long, athletic and can do everything -- three pointers, ball handling, shot blocking. Watch him go coast to coast against Wyoming in the first half of the game last week -- that'sGiannis Antetokounmpo stuff. If Bruno Caboclo can be drafted at No. 20, Pope can go 16th. He's a unique talent.
The Sixers have shown zero interest in taking players who are ready to help them now. It's all about what they will be in a few years. Pope may be the ultimate risk, but with their second pick in the first round? Why not try for a home run? There isn't a player left on the board with a bigger upside.
17
Bobby Portis
Phoenix Suns
COLLEGE: Arkansas
HT: 6-11
WT: 231
POS: PF
The Suns have a glut of riches in their backcourt, but are still looking for more help in the frontcourt. Portis is quietly having a terrific sophomore season at Arkansas. While he isn't the type of player who floors you with any one skill, he does just about everything well, and that midrange game is especially potent for a big man his age.
18
R.J. Hunter
Milwaukee Bucks
COLLEGE: Georgia St
HT: 6-5
WT: 185
POS: SG
R.J. Hunter, SG., Jr., Georgia State
The Bucks have been the surprise story of the 2014-15 season. Now that they are healthy, and with Jason Kidd at the helm, this team is loaded with a combination of young talent like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker and Brandon Knight and a cast of solid veterans. Their biggest need going into the summer will likely be in the middle. It's unlikely that Larry Sanders is going to continue to be their center much longer given all the off-the-court challenges he's faced, a buyout looks inevitable. Shooting is another constant need for Milwaukee and while Hunter's shot has been off this season, many scouts still believe he could be a Klay Thompson-type of star at the next level in the right offense, like Milwaukee's.
PLAYER CARD
19
Jakob Poeltl
Chicago Bulls
COLLEGE: Utah
HT: 7-0
WT: 230
POS: C
The Bulls have one of the best starting fives in the NBA and also have terrific depth at the 2,3 and 4. Backup point guard and a young, backup center are their top needs. Of the two centers left on the board, Poeltl is probably the best get. He's not ready to play in the NBA -- he lacks strength and gets pushed around too much -- but he's a terrific prospect and the Bulls have shown a willingness to be patient in the past. Poeltl could turn into their Omer Asik down the road.
PLAYER CARD
20
Montrezl Harrell
Washington Wizards
COLLEGE: Louisville
HT: 6-7
WT: 243
POS: PF
The Wizards are set in the backcourt with John Wall and Bradley Beal, and they are also still high on Otto Porter as a long-term answer at the 3. Marcin Gortat should have the center position nailed down for the next few years. So it's power forward where the Wizards are still looking for long-term help. Nene has just one year left on his contract and Harrell could be a nice long-term replacement. What he lacks in size (and a jump shot) he makes up for in elite athleticism and toughness.
PLAYER CARD
21
Delon Wright
Cleveland Cavaliers
COLLEGE: Utah
HT: 6-5
WT: 178
POS: PG
Matthew Dellavedova isn't the answer as a backup point guard in Cleveland, so it's an area the Cavs will look to upgrade this summer. While a rookie is never ideal on a team that's a championship contender, Wright is a senior and is one of the more NBA-ready prospects in the draft. He isn't a great shooter, but he's a terrific penetrator and distributor who could allow Kyrie Irving to play off the ball at times.
PLAYER CARD
22
Trey Lyles
San Antonio Spurs
COLLEGE: Kentucky
HT: 6-10
WT: 235
POS: PF
The Spurs know Tim Duncan isn't going to be around forever, and they also know there is no Tim Duncan hanging around in this draft (or probably any draft). Lyles, however, is a Spurs-type of player and could be a nice long-term replacement for San Antonio. He has a high basketball IQ, a great midrange game and rarely gets rattled. He's a work in progress, but at this point in the draft he's probably a steal.
PLAYER CARD
23
Tyus Jones
Boston Celtics
COLLEGE: Duke
HT: 6-1
WT: 170
POS: PG
Marcus Smart might be the point guard of the future in Boston, but he's going to need help. Jones is ranked No. 2 on� Kevin Pelton's Statistical Big Board and is the best pure point guard in the draft. His lack of size and elite athleticism lowers his value a bit, but the talent is there. He'd be a nice change of pace to Smart.
PLAYER CARD
24
Cliff Alexander
Dallas Mavericks
COLLEGE: Kansas
HT: 6-8
WT: 251
POS: PF
Alexander isn't the lottery pick he was pegged to be out of high school, but he still has an NBA body, toughness and tries to dunk everything. He's better off staying in school for another season, but if he comes out, the Mavs could definitely use him the same way they used Brandon Wright before they shipped him out in the Rajon Rondo trade.
PLAYER CARD
25
Sam Dekker
Los Angeles Lakers
COLLEGE: Wisconsin
HT: 6-9
WT: 230
POS: SF
The Lakers' second pick (courtesy of the Rockets as part of the trade that rid Houston of Jeremy Lin's salary) won't land them a superstar, but with major needs at every position, they could add a valuable role player in Dekker. He's athletic, can defend multiple positions, is a solid shooter and rarely makes mistakes. Most importantly he's tough and a winner --something the Lakers could definitely use more of.
PLAYER CARD
26
Domantas Sabonis
Portland Trail Blazers
COLLEGE: Gonzaga
HT: 6-10
WT: 230
POS: PF
No, I don't have the Blazers taking Arvydas Sabonis' son just because of the family ties. But they don't hurt. The Blazers could really use help at both forward positions this summer. LaMarcus Aldridge, Thomas Robinson, Victor Claver, Joel Freeland and Dorrell Wright are all free agents. Aldridge is likely to come back, but the rest are all big question marks. Sabonis has been quietly putting up a terrific freshman season for Gonzaga. He has one of the highest basketball IQ's of anyone in the country and ranks third among all freshmen in the country in total rebounding rate.
PLAYER CARD
27
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Toronto Raptors
COLLEGE: Arizona
HT: 6-7
WT: 220
POS: SF
Hollis-Jefferson might not be able to shoot, but he brings so much to the table in every other category that it's hard to understand why he's this low. Scouts have soured on him a bit, but once he gets into workouts I wonder if his stock will rise. He can guard three positions and makes things happen every time he's on the floor. He ranks fourth in the country in plus/minus for sophomores. Add him as a wing alongside DeMar DeRozan and the Raptors have one incredible defensive presence to start, or bring off the bench.
PLAYER CARD
28
Dakari Johnson
Memphis Grizzlies
COLLEGE: Kentucky
HT: 7-0
WT: 255
POS: C
Big man Marc Gasol and his backup Kosta Koufos head into free agency this summer. The most likely scenario has the Grizzlies re-signing Gasol, but there's a glut of money out there and in this league, you never know. Johnson would be a solid backup for Gasol if Koufos gets too expensive. He's not an explosive athlete, but he's strong and can score around the basket.
PLAYER CARD
29
Caris LeVert
Brooklyn Nets
COLLEGE: Michigan
HT: 6-6
WT: 185
POS: SF
The Nets will drop about 15 spots lower than they should thanks to the Joe Johnson trade, but they could still come out looking OK if they land LeVert. They need a long, versatile wing who can shoot the basketball and eventually replace Joe Johnson. LeVert would probably be 5 to 10 spots higher if he hadn't gotten injured this season.
PLAYER CARD
30
Terry Rozier
Golden State Warriors
COLLEGE: Louisville
HT: 6-2
WT: 190
POS: PG
Rozier has been better than this, but slides a bit because a number of teams in the 20s just don't need scoring point guards. He's a nice long-term fit in Golden State, especially if he can continue to smooth out that jumper. The sort of toughness and energy he brings would be a nice contrast when Steph Curry is getting a breather on the bench.
PLAYER CARD
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INDIANAPOLIS -- Hundreds of NFL coaches and evaluators coursed through arteries connecting Lucas Oil Stadium to the Indiana Convention Center and surrounding hotels as the scouting combine ramped up Wednesday. Most of the ones I spoke with thought this process would culminate with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers selecting Florida State quarterback Jameis Winstonfirst overall.
"If I were betting, I would say yes, they take him," a general manager from another team said.
Enough red flags have sprouted up around Winston off the field for teams to justify heading in another direction. One evaluator with ties to the 1990s AFC West saw the potential for another Ryan Leaf. A pro personnel director questioned whether Winston would fit with Buccaneers coach Lovie Smith.
But conversations with decision-makers around the league revealed reasons to think some of those concerns are misplaced. As a result, selecting Winston first overall could become a rather straightforward decision, not a tortured one, even though there is always risk.
No comparison to Manziel
With Johnny Manziel in rehab and Leaf's recent prison stint lasting nearly as long as his playing career, cautionary tales abound. At the very least, Winston's various incidents call into question his maturity. The former AFC West evaluator working for another team was the only one to bring up Leaf. None of the evaluators I spoke with thought direct comparisons between Manziel and Winston were warranted.
"I think they are totally different," one GM said. "With Johnny, you had questions about every single aspect: his size, his durability, his arm, the scheme he played in, plus all the stuff off the field. I think you can rehab Winston if you get him in the right environment. With Johnny, you might not be able to rehab him and it was going to be out of your hands, anyway."
The thinking was that Manziel, through his lifestyle, was more likely to encounter problems serious enough to derail a career that was already a longer shot based on his playing style and experience. Maturity might be all Winston needs, some of the evaluators thought.
"Winston I never thought was a bad kid," another GM said. "I think he is immature and naive, but I thought Johnny was closer to being trouble."
Winston's tremendous skill set
One GM said he thought there was a chance that with a strong combine, Marcus Mariota could "make a run" at being the first quarterback selected, but that Winston might have to bungle the pre-draft process for Tampa Bay to pass on him. The personnel director who thought the "spiritual and religious" Lovie Smith might not fit well with a potentially wayward quarterback said he questioned reports suggesting Buccaneers Hall of Famer Derrick Brooks could successfully mentor Winston.
"In theory, that works, but the key is he has to want to be mentored," the personnel director said.
[+] Enlarge
Rob Tringali for ESPNWinston has impressed a number of talent evaluators with his special set of skills.
Others thought a coach like Smith could provide the structure necessary to help guide Winston, because the quarterback mostly needed to learn how a quarterback must operate within an organization to lead a team. One evaluator who has had dealings with the Buccaneers said he thought Winston's intelligence, not just his physical ability, was particularly appealing to Tampa Bay. This evaluator noted that Winston had been admitted to Stanford.
In the end, how many 2-14 teams can pass up a supremely gifted prospect with the smarts to play the position at a high level, especially if the other prospects in this draft are either less talented or less pro-ready (or both)? One GM from a team with an established quarterback said earlier in the offseason that he thought neither Winston nor Mariota was worth an early first-round selection, but that he thought teams picking early might lack the fortitude required to pass on them. Most of the evaluators I've spoken with felt better about Winston, however.
"Winston can throw the ball accurately and he really has a pocket presence about him that is pretty special," another GM said. "He can read defenses and process information and is extremely talented. Maturity is the question. Whoever is picking 1-2-3 is going to have to answer that. But in a day and age when it is so hard to find those guys who can read defenses and throw accurately, it is going to be tough. You have to take a chance. You could be damned if you do, damned if you don't. How many times are you going to pick up there at the top?"
One more vantage point
Sometimes it's helpful to analyze a decision through opponents' eyes, so I asked a GM whether he thought the Buccaneers' NFC South rivals were hoping Tampa Bay selected Winston or passed on him.
"You are hoping they do not take him," this GM said. "Not that you know how Winston's career will unfold, but what Winston would give them is a fresh start -- new life. The psyche of the team is important. I think that is why those other teams in the NFC South would go, 'You know what, I would rather roll the dice with what they have been than all of a sudden they have a new quarterback and if he hits, then you have 10 years of this in your division.'"
Dr. Narcisse
Veteran
The top two quarterback prospects in the 2015 draft class, Oregon's Marcus Mariota and Florida State's Jameis Winston, each put on a show at the NFL scouting combine on Saturday. It's rare to see the top two guys work out together at the combine like this, and the vast majority of their performances were extremely positive.
Let's get into how each did, how I have them ranked coming out of Saturday's workouts, and also take a look at how the top receivers performed.
Mariota was really, really good. But Winston was exceptional.
Some are going to focus on the measurables, with Mariota putting up fast times and good scores in the jumps and Winston being below average in most areas of his athletic testing. But I just don't think those things are going to matter with regard to Winston's chances of becoming a successful NFL quarterback.
[+] Enlarge
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesMarcus Mariota wowed with his athleticism while Jameis Winston was electric passing at the combine.
Winston may not run fast times, but he can extend plays with his strength and instincts, and that's enough in the NFL -- especially when you factor in his ability as a passer. He is just a natural thrower of the football. His delivery was a minor area of concern, but for the most part he showcased an efficient delivery in passing drills on Saturday. He is almost always on balance, and even when he isn't, the ball is still delivered on point. He showed excellent touch on deep balls and over-the-shoulder throws.
Mariota isn't the natural passer that Winston is, and he doesn't have the same experience in a pro-style system that Winston does. That showed up Saturday, as the biggest difference between the two was in anticipation throws. Mariota was a little late on some of those, but he showed improvement during the drills. I feel as though his footwork in working from under center is better than expected given how little time he's had to work on it.
The other thing I heard from multiple people is that teams are really impressed with how good a young man Mariota is. But Winston also impressed teams in his interview sessions. I heard from several people that he has handled himself well, coming across as both sincere and confident, and that his football IQ was off the charts. It also became clear that other players, especially wide receivers, gravitate toward Winston. It's not a knock on Mariota, but it's clear he's not viewed as the same kind of vocal leader that Winston is.
These guys, to me, are both still in the mix to be the No. 1 overall pick. They have very different styles in a few different ways, so it'll come down to the preference of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or whichever team ultimately ends up picking first overall. Personally, I give the edge to Winston as the better prospect. Mariota was really good Saturday and it's clear that some improvement is already there. But Winston confirmed what I've seen of him on tape: He is just a natural in terms of his ability to anticipate throws and put the ball on spots. There just aren't many guys out there who can throw the football like him.
Hundley was good, but it might not matter on draft day
At 6-foot-3 and 226 pounds with 10½-inch hands, UCLA QB Brett Hundley tested well across the board and threw the ball well during drills. But that comes as no surprise to those who have studied him. The biggest concerns with Hundley are his lack of pocket presence and erratic accuracy when under pressure. So while his performances today -- and by several accounts during interviews -- have been all positive, it will be difficult to ease the aforementioned concerns during the pre-draft process.
Notes on WRs
We'll get into this year's running back class at a later time, but here are some thoughts on how the receivers did Saturday:
Cooper and White are both in the top-five mix -- and Parker isn't far behind
Alabama's Amari Cooper and West Virginia's Kevin White are our top two receivers, and both performed well Saturday. Cooper ran a really good 40-yard dash time at 4.42 seconds, and when you factor in his savvy as a route runner, his big-play ability and just his overall game, he's about as complete a receiver as you're going to see coming out of college. White, on the other hand, probably has the lower floor but higher ceiling. He had one great year of college production, but based only on that one year he showed better ball skills (Cooper's are still really good), he's bigger at 6-3, 215 pounds (Cooper is 6-1, 211), and he put up a wow time in the 40 at 4.35 seconds.
Red-flag WR prospects to keep an eye on
Studies have shown that fewer than 10 percent of WRs who fall in either of these categories go on to be three-year NFL starters.
10-yard split in 1.64 or slower
Mario Alford, West Virginia 1.65
Kaelin Clay, Utah 1.64
Jamison Crowder, Duke 1.71
Josh Harper, Fresno State 1.66
Dezmin Lewis, Central Arkansas 1.64
Tello Luckett, Harding 1.65
Vince Mayle, Washington State 1.67
Ezell Ruffin, San Diego State 1.66
Vertical jump of 33 inches or lower
Kaelin Clay, Utah 33
Amari Cooper, Alabama 33
Titus Davis, Central Michigan 32.5
Josh Harper, Fresno State 32
Christion Jones, Alabama 32.5
Keith Mumphery, Michigan State 32.5
Ezell Ruffin, San Diego State 27.5
Both had surprisingly low numbers in the vertical and broad jumps, considering what good athletes they are, but both looked good in the pass-catching drills. I think both are in the mix to go as high as No. 4 overall to the Raiders, and while Cooper might have had a clearer edge coming into Saturday, White's speed at his size makes it an even more intriguing debate.
Our No. 3 WR, Devante Parker, got kind of overlooked Saturday, but he had a really good workout. He's close to White's size and ran an impressive 4.45 40 and did significantly better in the vertical and broad jumps (both of which have a correlation with pro success for WRs) than Cooper and White. When you factor all of that in, I don't think there's much of a difference between the workouts of all three. Parker also belongs in the top 20 prospects, and solidified that status with his performance Saturday.
Big WR prospects could be in high demand
Beyond the aforementioned WR trio, Arizona State's Jaelen Strong (6-2, 217 pounds) and Oklahoma's Dorial Green-Beckham (6-5 237 pounds) both showed they have the size-speed combination to be a threat vertically at the NFL level, with Strong posting a 4.44 in the 40 and Green-Beckham clocking in at 4.49.
Michigan's Devin Funchess (6-4, 232) is another big target who graded out slightly higher than the other two coming into the combine. He too makes contested catches on tape and can win 50-50 balls downfield, but he didn't run nearly as well as the other two. His 4.7 40 is well below the five-year combine average for receivers. But remember that Funchess weighs 30 more pounds than the average receiver at the combine, so while his speed times did not stack up with some others, they're still solid-to-good for his size.
Lockett is a midround sleeper to watch
Kansas State's Tyler Lockett really impressed today. He's a smaller WR at 5-10, 182 pounds, but showcased his speed with a 4.4-second 40, and did really well in the drills portion. He showed strong hands and was really quick transitioning up the field after the catch. He's a likely third-round pick who can contribute early in his career as a slot receiver and return specialist.
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Dr. Narcisse
Veteran
Stock Watch: Towns on the rise
We are down to the final weeks of conference play, and it's been interesting to see which prospects started the season hot but then faded, and which prospects started slow but are peaking at the right time.
Although scouts tend to take a holistic view of the season -- everything matters -- it is true that they are looking for progress as the season goes on, and players peaking now (especially in March) leave stronger impressions heading into the draft.
After speaking with a number of GMs and scouts, here's a look at several players who are peaking as the season winds down:
Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Fr., Kentucky
Slowly but surely, Towns continues to make a serious case for the No. 1 pick. Kentucky's platoon system and a number of blowouts have limited his minutes and artificially lowered his stats. Still, he has put up some huge games lately: 19 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks against Florida; 12 points, 13 rebounds and 2 blocks against LSU; and 19 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocks in 21 minutes against Auburn. In his past six games, Towns is averaging 13 points, 9 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 24 minutes per game, while shooting 64 percent from the field. He has also made 17 of 18 free throws -- a key stat for a big man.
From an analytics standpoint, Towns has caught Jahlil Okafor and even surpassed him in some systems, including Kevin Pelton's. Towns is a little bigger than Okafor, more athletic, a better defender and a better shot-blocker, but can Towns make the case that he's the better long-term prospect? I've spoken to some general managers over the past week who are starting to think he might be. In short, with the rise of Towns and D'Angelo Russell, Okafor's grip on the No. 1 pick isn't nearly as tight as it was a month ago.
Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Jr., Kentucky
Cauley-Stein's season numbers (9.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) certainly don't scream top-10 pick -- especially for a junior. Kevin Pelton's Statistical Big Board doesn't have him in the top 30. But scouts are seeing something very different. Cauley-Stein's unique combination of athleticism and size makes him a potential dominant defensive force who can defend multiple positions on the floor. We already knew he was an amazing finisher in transition and off lobs. Until recently, the rest of his offensive repertoire was a major work in progress, but Cauley-Stein has been surprising scouts lately by showing off a midrange jump shot in limited quantities. This season, 37 percent of the shots Cauley-Stein takes are 2-point jumpers, and he's shooting a respectable 35 percent this season. That number has been going up all season. If Cauley-Stein can figure out any semblance of a 10-foot jumper, he has the chance to be great.
Christian Wood, PF, So., UNLV
UNLV's season has been a mess, but Wood has quietly put together a terrific sophomore year. He's had some especially impressive performances lately. In the past two weeks, he had 27 points, 19 rebounds and 7 blocks against Fresno State, and 31 points, 9 rebounds and 5 blocks against Air Force. Five of Wood's past seven performances have been double-doubles, and he's been averaging 4 blocks in his past six games. Although his shot selection leaves a lot to be desired and he needs to add strength, Wood's combination of size, athleticism, rebounding and shot-blocking is getting him serious consideration as a mid-to-late first-round pick.
Jarell Martin, PF, So., LSU
Martin was considered one of the top 10 players in the high school class of 2013 but quickly faded in the draft discussion after a less-than-dominant freshman year (thanks in large part to some early-season injuries). His strong play of late, however, has scouts talking again. Martin had 21 points and 11 rebounds against a Kentucky front line that sports four potential first-round picks. He followed it up 10 days later (on Saturday) with a 28-point, 13-rebound performance against Florida. Martin hasn't proved to be the shooter he was pegged to be out of high school (30 percent on 3s and 34 percent on 2-point jumpers). But he's been a strong finisher at the rim and a solid rebounder.
Isaac Copeland, F, Fr., Georgetown
Copeland had had a pretty quiet freshman season -- until he was inserted into the starting lineup three games ago. Since then, he's been terrific: 20 points, eight rebounds and 3-for-4 from beyond the arc versus Seton Hall; 12 and 9 with two assists and three blocks against St. John's; and 12 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists Saturday versus DePaul. Copeland was one of the best high school players in the country last season, and some scouts think he'll follow in the footsteps of Otto Porter and become a lottery pick down the road. Copeland is long and athletic, and he can play both forward positions, shoot the 3, handle the ball and block shots. He's one of the more versatile prospects in the draft. Although it's unlikely he'll declare this year (he needs to add strength and consistency), if he finishes with a flurry, he'll be tempted. He has first-round talent.
Gary Payton II, PG, Jr. Oregon State
His father's nickname in the NBA was "The Glove," and the son is showing the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. Kevin Pelton has been high on Payton all season, and scouts are slowly starting to come around. Payton is averaging 3 steals per game and an impressive 1.3 blocks per game. In the past couple of weeks, he had seven blocks and four steals (Saturday against Colorado), six steals against USC, and five steals against Washington. He also dropped 24 points against Colorado, 24 against UCLA and 17 against Washington. Payton's lack of assists has raised some issues among scouts who question whether he's a "true" point guard, but he has slowly won over many scouts who are now conceding that he's an intriguing, potential first-rounder if he declares.
Cameron Payne, PG, So., Murray State
Murray State is in the midst of a 22-game win streak, and Payne is the engine behind the Racers' success. He is drawing praise from scouts as one of the most intelligent point guards in the draft. Payne isn't the strongest or most athletic point guard in the draft, but he is quick, is shooting the ball much better as a sophomore, and has a very advanced feel for the game. He probably isn't a first-round pick right now, but some teams are taking a very close look. As Kevin Pelton pointed out two weeks ago, Payne is a favorite of the analytics crowd.
Combine's impact on top 5 picks
The 2015 NFL combine is in the books. Who stood out, and what will it mean come April 30 when the first round of the draft kicks off? Here are my top seven takeaways from Indianapolis, starting with why I believe FSU's Jameis Winston has a better chance to be the No. 1 pick than Oregon'sMarcus Mariota:
1. The favorite to go No. 1 overall to the Buccaneers is Winston.
I could see Tampa Bay going with either Winston or Mariota with the top pick. But when I watch the tape on these guys, there's a clear difference between the two. Winston is second only to Andrew Luck among NFL quarterback prospects of the past 10 years, in my mind, if you base things solely off of what guys have done on the field.
Now obviously, it's not that simple with Winston, as his off-field behavioral issues have been well-documented. Tampa Bay and any team that considers drafting him is going to have to be comfortable with him from a character and psychological standpoint. But from what I heard from NFL sources, Winston really impressed teams during interviews, handling himself well when answering questions about his past and displaying an outstanding football IQ.
Mariota also nailed it in his interviews. We've always known that Mariota is a person of extremely high character and that he has an intense passion for football. But teams I spoke to raved about Mariota's football IQ, which is important for a quarterback coming from a college system that doesn't translate favorably to most NFL offenses.
Ultimately, I think it will come down to the Bucs' preferences and what they put their emphasis on. I would lean toward Winston, because I think he is more advanced at this point and also has a higher ceiling; he's just a very natural passer in terms of anticipating throws and delivering the ball accurately. I also think that Mariota has the potential to develop into a really good starter if he's handled properly, and I know some guys in the league who think he's going to be a star.
So Winston to the Bucs is by no means a done deal. But if you're asking me to pick one, I'd go with Winston, and most of the sources I talked to in Indianapolis this week seemed to share that opinion.
2. USC DL Leonard Williams made the Titans' decision at No. 2 a lot harder.
Tennessee also needs a quarterback, but if we operate under the scenario that Winston goes No. 1, I think the team will have a really difficult decision to make. Williams is the best overall player in this draft class, and he made it really difficult for the Titans to pass on him with the workout he turned in, showing outstanding athleticism for his size and backing up what he's shown on tape.
But no matter how good you think Williams is, the bottom line is that you need to have a quarterback to win in this league. If Winston is off the board, the Titans are going to have to choose between drafting and developing Mariota or continuing to develop second-year guy Zach Mettenberger. I absolutely think that coach Ken Whisenhunt's experience and preference of working with pro-style dropback passers could be a deterrent in picking Mariota, as that isn't Mariota's game at this point in his career.
3. If Tennessee decides against Mariota, several different landing spots come into play for him (including via a trade).
Let's say Winston goes No. 1 to the Bucs and Williams goes No. 2 to the Titans; what happens to Mariota then?
I think the Jets are a realistic possibility with the No. 6 pick, if he slides that far, but I also think there are a few teams that could consider moving up to draft him. The Rams, who own the No. 10 pick, could be interested depending on whether they trust Sam Bradford to come back healthy and be a productive starter for them. The Browns have more assets to try to trade up than most teams, as owners of the No. 12 and No. 19 picks, but I have a hard time seeing them draft a QB in the first round two years in a row.
That brings us to the Eagles. I know from talking to Chip Kelly previously how highly he thinks of Mariota, his former QB at Oregon, and especially now that he has control over personnel decisions, you have to consider a trade-up a possibility for Philadelphia. But I have no idea if he'd be willing to give up as much as it would take to jump up 15 or more spots to get ahead of the Jets at No. 6 (and remember, Washington has the No. 5 pick; I don't think it'd be too eager to help its division rival Eagles get their guy at QB) -- likely in the neighborhood of two first-rounders plus other picks and/or players. He's already gotten adequate quarterback play from Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez -- does he want to give up that much just for Mariota? The Texans at No. 16 are another team to keep an eye on if Mariota slides down the board.
Ultimately, I think the team that drafts Mariota has to have a plan in place to develop him. By that I mean incorporating some up-tempo and zone-read elements into your offense while at the same time helping him improve at winning from inside the pocket, which is what he'll ultimately need to learn in order to have long-term success. He's bulked up some, but he isn't Cam Newton in terms of his size; he'll only be able to rely upon his athleticism and running ability so much.
4. The wide receiver class is again loaded -- and the Raiders could take one with the No. 4 pick.
We've had Alabama's Amari Cooper ranked as our top wide receiver prospect, and he did nothing to hurt his stock with a really strong combine performance, including a 4.42-second 40-yard dash. When you pair that with his route-running ability and all-around game (his 33-inch vertical was a little bit of a concern), he's a really intriguing option for Oakland at No. 4 overall.
However, West Virginia's Kevin White made that decision more interesting with his 40 time of 4.35. For a guy with his size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds), ball skills and run-after-catch ability, that's an outstanding number. His 2014 tape is really strong, and I think it's about 50-50 right now between Cooper and White in terms of being the first WR drafted.
But there are plenty of other really good receiver prospects in this class, most of them with great size. Devante Parker (Louisville), Jaelen Strong (Arizona State), Dorial Green-Beckham (Oklahoma) and Devin Funchess (Michigan) are all potential first-round picks who measured 6-2 or taller.
5. There are a lot of good edge rushers in this class, and a lot of teams that need them.
I thought that the higher-ranked edge rushers on our board -- Nebraska's Randy Gregory and Florida's Dante Fowler Jr. -- didn't fare as well in their workouts as Clemson's Vic Beasley and Kentucky's Bud Dupree, who solidified his first-round status and moved into first-round consideration, respectively, but none of the top guys hurt their stocks with their performances in Indy this week. (Missouri's Shane Ray didn't participate due to injury.) I don't consider Virginia's Eli Harold a likely first-round pick, but he represents some of the depth that can be found for teams that miss out on the first wave of pass-rushers.
There are several teams that could look to take an edge rusher early. The Jaguars at No. 3, the Redskins at No. 5, the Falcons at No. 8 and the Giants at No. 9 are all possible landing spots for Gregory, Fowler and Ray. The Eagles at No. 20, the Bengals at No. 21, the Steelers at No. 22 and the Colts at No. 29 are potential destinations for Beasley and Dupree.
6. This is a talented running back class, but they mostly disappointed in their workouts.
The fact two of our four top-ranked backs weren't able to work out due to injury -- Georgia's Todd Gurley and Indiana's Tevin Coleman -- had an impact on this group, but even taking their absences into account, this was a disappointing performance. Last year, 10 running backs ran the 40-yard dash faster than 4.5 seconds; this year, only three did.
Our top-ranked running back, Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, had a decent workout but not a great one, putting up results that were average or above-average in every category. Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl gave a full breakdown of the RBs group here.
7. Cornerbacks should be in high demand, and two really helped themselves in Indy.
By now you've probably heard about the ridiculous performance of UConn's Byron Jones in the jumps, posting the best-ever-recorded distance of 12 feet, 3 inches in the broad jump, and an almost-as-impressive 44 1/2-inch vertical. He didn't run the 40-yard dash, but if he can post something in the 4.3 range, as it's been suggested he can, at his pro day, he'll continue to move up draft boards. We didn't have him graded as a first-round talent based on his tape, but his athletic testing results indicate he possesses the kind of natural tools teams want in their cornerbacks.
The other guy who really helped himself this week was Michigan State's Trae Waynes. I thought that Washington's Marcus Peters was a better prospect based on his tape, but his off-field issues and the fact he ran a 4.53 could bump him down a little bit, and Waynes is well-positioned to capitalize. One question we'd had about him was his top-end speed, and he definitely put that to rest with a 4.31 40-yard dash. Forty times don't matter a ton at every position, but they definitely matter for cornerbacks.
There are several teams picking between No. 11 and No. 26 overall that could use a corner, including the Vikings, Saints and Ravens, and Waynes, Jones and LSU's Jalen Collins (who also ran well with a 4.48 40) could be among those who benefit. Given the influx of talented receivers last year, and with another good class on the way, teams are starving for cornerbacks -- especially ones with size. Teams simply have to find guys with length and speed to match up with some of these guys, and they might be more inclined than in past years to take a chance on a corner early who might not have the polish and technique they're looking for, but who does have the natural tools needed to develop into a good NFL cornerback.
