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Why Noah is Bulls' franchise player
Zach Lowe of Grantland wrote recently about how "unlikely" bonuses in player contracts could potentially put some non-taxpaying teams past the tax thresholds. One of the subjects of his piece was Chicago Bulls center Joakim Noah, whose $500,000 bonus for making first-team All-NBA would push the Bulls' payroll into tax territory.
Fortunately for Chicago's bean counters, the play of Dwight Howard and the subsequent rise of the Houston Rockets, particularly over the last two months, make Noah's candidacy for a spot on the first team more and more unlikely as the season winds down.
But there's another question to be answered by Bulls management: Even when (if?) hometown hero Derrick Rose returns to full health, isn't Noah really the centerpiece of the franchise? Is Noah the face of the Bulls?
Background
When Noah was coming out in the 2007 NBA draft, he was one of a handful of top-10-caliber players who agreed to visit and work out for the Phoenix Suns, despite the fact that we didn't even hold a pick in the top 20. Noah's first visit came during our ill-fated Western Conference semifinal matchup with the San Antonio Spurs, as he took in Game 5 from a suite, along with Florida teammate Corey Brewer and Chinese big man Yi Jianlian. I spent the game shepherding these three players, introducing them to basketball operations staff who would stop by, as well as executives from some of the team's biggest sponsors. Noah's ease in social situations and ability to connect with a wide variety of individuals immediately showed, as his charm and wit were on full display. At the same time, he was equally invested in the game, following enthusiastically and making his own basketball observations about the action unfolding.
A few weeks later, Noah went through a formal workout (along with Brewer and Jeff Green), and got to showcase his on-court intensity and competitive spirit, as well as his feel and skill. Afterward, in his interview with Suns brass, he was asked why he felt he'd be a good fit in Phoenix, and gave one of the most poignant, self-aware answers I've ever heard in a pre-draft setting (I'm paraphrasing): "Honestly, I don't know how good a player I'll be in this league, but I know one thing: I am going to run the length of the floor hard on every single play because I know most bigs hate to run; I'm going to make them hate seeing us on the schedule."
This answer stuck with me because most pre-draft candidates give canned answers about either just being there to learn or being happy to be on the team in whatever role they are asked to fulfill, which of course is balderdash. Noah was able to combine humility with a very real attribute he possessed, and apply it to our style of play versus those of our main competitors.
Seven years later, Noah has developed into more than just a big who runs the floor hard.
Noah the facilitator
One of Noah's more attractive traits has always been his ability to pass the ball, but it's something that has remained beneath the surface of his game, as Chicago never took full advantage of his ability until the extended absence of Rose. After averaging about four assists per 36 minutes last season, he's upped his production to five assists per 36 minutes this season (4.8 per game), making him the highest-assisting big man in the NBA. Indeed, of the 67 players with an assist percentage of at least 20 percent this year, only Noah and Josh McRoberts are true big men (power forward or center).
He has a preternatural ability to make the pass outside of set pieces in the offense, with a recognition of what the defense is giving him and how to attack it, not to mention the dexterity to deliver on this instinct.
In the play above, Noah senses the overplay from John Salmons on Jimmy Butler, who does the right thing by cutting back door against the pressure. Noah instinctively recognizes and delivers the bounce pass, which he threads between the recovering Salmons and Noah's own defender, Amir Johnson, who is one of the better defensive big men in the league. The pass hits Butler in perfect stride for the easy layup.
There are a couple of other big men in the NBA (Andrew Bogut, the Marc and Pau Gasol) who can make that sort of play, but what sets Noah apart is his ability to make plays on the move, particularly in transition. It was a skill he exhibited at Florida that appealed to our style of play: the ability to grab the defensive rebound and "bust out" up the floor, leading the fast break and making the play.
In the play above from his Florida days, Noah wrestles away the defensive rebound, pushes the ball up the court and finishes with the lefty dunk. Below, modern-day Noah grabs the rebound and gets to the middle of the floor before dropping the perfect bounce pass to his teammate on the left wing, just like a point guard would do.
Noah the scorer
Although he doesn't have the repertoire of an elite scorer, Noah does a good job of staying within his strengths (hearkening back to the self-awareness that was so evident in his pre-draft interview). He'll post up against mismatches, and while it can look stiff and mechanical, he does a good job of improving post position and using either hand around the rim. His unorthodox release on his jumper led many to believe he'd never be an effective shooter, and though he'll never be mistaken for Ray Allen, he's worked himself into a consistent 70-plus percent free throw shooter.
More importantly, Noah is aware of his lack of prowess away from the rim, but does not allow it to limit his effectiveness with the ball out of the paint. In the play below, Noah illustrates how he uses his above-average handles and agility to attack the space given to him by Marc Gasol, presumably out of disrespect for Noah's jumper.
Noah is able to attack Gasol off the dribble with a left-to-right crossover before spinning back with a lefty hook shot.
Noah the screener
Beyond his on-ball capabilities, Noah has also separated himself as one of the best off-ball offensive weapons in the game. As I described in my piece on screeners, data collected by Vantage Sports allow us to quantify screen setting, and determine who are the best in the game.
Noah does an excellent job of setting solid screens, with approximately 77 percent of his set screens either making contact with or rerouting defenders, and almost 48 percent of his set screens lead to an open shot, a shooting foul drawn, or a pass to a teammate for an open shot. In the play below, Noah lays the wood on Shawn Marion, who is attempting to lock and trail Mike Dunleavy. While Dunleavy's shot does not connect, notice the amount of space created by Noah's screen, giving an elite shooter plenty of time to get off an uncontested shot.
Noah the defensive anchor
Of course, we'd be remiss if we didn't talk about Noah's impact on the defensive end, where he is an elite team anchor. Besides his incredible defensive rating (the Bulls allow 98.1 points per 100 possessions while he is on the floor), he's an excellent defensive rebounder, corralling more than 25 percent of opponent misses when he's on the floor. He's also one of only five players to average at least one block and one steal per game in each of the past two seasons.
Noah the vocal leader
Over the past few years, Noah has been at the forefront as the mouthpiece of the Bulls' locker room, from weighing in on the trade of Luol Deng, to giving the Miami Heat the ultimate backhanded compliment by calling them "Hollywood as hell." As the face of the franchise, part of the responsibility includes being around to speak for the franchise, in good times and bad. With Rose becoming more and more of a recluse of late, Noah has assumed that role, one that comes more naturally to him than to his injured teammate.
Noah the recruiter
Last but not least, as we've seen recently, part of being an effective leader and face of the franchise is the willingness to pitch prospective free agents and stars from other teams of the merits of playing with your team. It is something that Rose has openly expressed a disdain for on numerous occasions, but it is also an archaic way of thinking in an NBA where amassing talent is necessary for truly competing for a title.
Noah's engaging personality makes him a natural for this role, and we've already seen him make inroads by allegedly speaking with free-agent-to-be Carmelo Anthony about making Chicago his next destination.
Last but not least, as we've seen recently, part of being an effective leader and face of the franchise is the willingness to pitch prospective free agents and stars from other teams of the merits of playing with your team. It is something that Rose has openly expressed a disdain for on numerous occasions, but it is also an archaic way of thinking in an NBA where amassing talent is necessary for truly competing for a title.
Noah's engaging personality makes him a natural for this role, and we've already seen him make inroads by allegedly speaking with free-agent-to-be Carmelo Anthony about making Chicago his next destination.
FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
Nick Gordon the draft's top SS prospect
Olympia HS shortstop Nick Gordon is no secret within the industry, between his big league father (you know him as "Flash"), brother Dee of the Dodgers, and former teammates Walker Weickel and Jesse Winker, but this year he has come into his own as a legitimate top-half-of-the-first-round prospect, and in my opinion the best middle infielder in the draft class, worthy of a top-10 pick.
Gordon's fastball has been in the low 90s off the mound, so we already know he has the arm to play anywhere on the field, but his footwork and hands have improved every year I've seen him -- my first look was in March 2012 while scouting Weickel and Winker -- and there's no doubt at all that he can stay at short. He's quite a bit stronger this year, adding 10-plus pounds of muscle, so he's better able to turn on good fastballs and has been showing more pop.
The only knock on Gordon that I can see is that the left-handed hitter loads his hands way too deep, unnecessarily so as it just creates length from his loading position to contact without adding power. He ends up with a golf swing at anything down and will end up flying out to left on pitches he should be able to line to the outfield gap. If he keeps his hands near his left shoulder, he'll be able to make contact at high rates even as the quality of stuff he's facing improves. His bat speed is fine, and I think he's a high-average, 10-12 homer guy at his peak, with well-above-average defense at shortstop -- the kind of prospect who would go high in any draft, but especially so in a draft class light on middle infielders like this year's.
• While in Florida, I also caught three players who should be taken in the top three rounds, although none looks like a first-rounder right now. One was Mitchell HS right-hander Cobi Johnson -- the term "projection" incarnate -- who stands 6-foot-4, 180 pounds, with an easy delivery and very good feel for his curveball already. Cobi's father, Dane, pitched in the major leagues and has been coaching in Toronto's minor league system for more than 10 years, so it's not a surprise that Cobi does everything so easily on the mound. (Disclaimer: I have known Dane since I worked in Toronto's front office.)
When I saw Cobi, his fastball was mostly 88-91 mph from the windup and 86-89 from the stretch, and the curveball was 70-76 with good shape and a surprising number of strikes. His landing out front is a little stiff, and he cuts himself off slightly when he lands, but his arm slot is well above three-quarters, so he doesn't end up coming across his body when he releases the ball. He also has an unusual move before he starts his windup, stepping back and forward, re-establishing himself on the rubber before his leg kick.
He reminds me a little of Tyler Skaggs at the same age -- slight of build but with the frame to add a lot of muscle, showing fringy velocity but good shape on the curveball, just throwing with the other arm. In this draft, he probably will be a second- or third-round pick, but he'll end up having more success and throwing harder than a lot of guys who'll be taken ahead of him.
• Lake Brantley HS has been a factory for big leaguers, spitting out Jason Varitek, Felipe Lopez, Jonny Venters, Nick Franklin and Jemile Weeks among the 20 total players drafted from the school. The Patriots are back at it again, as the school has two top prospects for this year's draft. Shortstop Tate Blackman isn't loaded with tools, but the whole here is more than the sum of its parts, as he's a solid all-around player with bat speed, foot speed and good actions in the field.
His swing is very balanced, and he keeps his hands inside the ball well, with a line-drive stroke that won't produce much power as he doesn't have much loft in his finish or a lot of hip rotation. In the field, he has the arm to stay at short -- and the hands -- but he'll need help with his footwork to avoid a move to second base.
Blackman's teammate, outfielder Carl Chester, is a plus-plus runner with some bat speed, although he collapses his back side a little and doesn't project physically to be a power hitter. He has potential as a center fielder who can throw and whose speed can impact the game on both sides of the ball. He's a Miami commit but is probably a second-round talent, and Blackman, an Ole Miss commit, figures in the second to third round.
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Veteran
@Skooby
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Are Cubs' finances worthy of their future?
Earlier this week, we looked for some holes in the Top 300 fantasy rankings for Messrs. Berry, Karabell et al. In the name of fairness, it’s worth expressing some regret over the placement of a particular team in our Future Power Rankings, which came out Thursday.
Namely: I’m really, really surprised we have the Cubs as high as No. 7.
That's over the Tigers, who have made the playoffs every year lately. Over the Braves, who just locked up one of the youngest cores of stars in the big leagues -- Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons, Craig Kimbrel, Jason Heyward, Julio Teheran -- and had the second-most wins among NL teams last season. We had the Cubs over the Tampa Bay Rays, who have won as many postseason games in the past six seasons (12) as the Cubs have won in the past 78 years. We have the Cubs over the Yankees, who may not have run the most efficient franchise or farm system in the past decade but who have a habit of qualifying for games in October.
If you reverse-engineer the polling results, you can figure out how it happened. The Cubs are building a strong group of prospects, with Kris Bryant and Javier Baez among the best -- although so far, they have a whole lot more depth among their position players than in their pitching. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, who lead the baseball operations department, have strong track records.
But there is a number I think we may have overvalued: the Cubs’ financial situation.
I think we still look at the Cubs through the broad strokes: They're the most powerful team in Chicago, a club that has done better as a money machine than as a baseball team over the past 25 years.
However, we still haven’t seen evidence that the Ricketts family will spend big dollars when the Cubs’ group of prospects is ready to ripen. Look at the team’s payroll trend:
2010: $144.3 million
2011: $134 million
2012: $109 million
2013: $107 million
2014: About $90 million, according to Baseball Prospectus.
(This does not include the $13 million of Alfonso Soriano’s deal that the Cubs will assume.) Generally speaking, the payroll has gone down by about 30 percent over the past four seasons.
The Rickettses, like a lot of incoming owners, took on debt to buy the Cubs, and the scrap with the rooftop owners outside of Wrigley Field has probably turned out to be much more complicated than anticipated. They have ambitions for a Fenway-like remodeling.
The bottom line: So far, the Rickettses’ spending on their major league product has been much more like that of the Brewers or Reds than a big-market superpower that we usually assume they should be. Maybe that will change as the prospects ascend and develop, and maybe the Cubs will settle their ballpark and rooftop issues and spend more freely.
But I’m not sure we can simply assume, based on the information at hand, that this will happen -- just as we don’t assume the Mets are going to spend. In retrospect, the Cubs should certainly be lower on the Future Power Rankings.
Notables
• Ryne Sandberg says the Jimmy Rollins benching was not a disciplinary move. Sandberg set a tone with this Rollins benching, writes Mike Sielski.
It became clear, as Sandberg talked to reporters, that something Rollins said earlier this week bothered the manager, writes Jim Salisbury. Sandberg is right to try to defuse this situation, to back off; he’s made his point to Rollins and, at the same time, everybody else in the clubhouse.
• On the Thursday podcast: Atlanta GM Frank Wren explains his course of action in the aftermath of the Kris Medlen injury; Matt Gelb discusses the Rollins-Ryno flap; and Jerry Crasnick talks landlords.
• Mike Trout says he has not set a deadline on his contract talks.
• More injury issues for the Rangers: Jurickson Profar had four impacted wisdom teeth removed. Adrian Beltre left Thursday's game with a tight quad.
Meanwhile: Shin-Soo Choo took an injection in his elbow and hit a home run.
• Ryan Zimmerman is not going to throw for a couple of days. Doug Fister is still feeling tightness in his elbow. Washington may need more than one extra starter, writes Brian McNally.
• A trade built around Francisco Cervelli and Gordon Beckham is not out of the question, writes Joel Sherman.
• Stephen Drew would love to be back with the Red Sox, writes Nick Cafardo.
The fight for jobs
1.Mike Olt is packing some power. Folks who know Olt are rooting like crazy for him, given all that he’s had to work through the past couple of years.
2.Zach Duke is trying to win a job in the Milwaukee bullpen.
3. A Marlin is trying to make their bullpen, writes Manny Navarro.
4.Daisuke Matsuzaka continues to look good, Tyler Kepner writes.
5.Ruben Tejada is the Mets’ shortstop.
6.Zach Britton is thinking about a possible bullpen job.
7.Ricky Romero is turning heads in the Toronto camp.
8.Paul Maholm was hit hard.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Tigers signedNate Robertson.
2.David Price will be the Opening Day starter for the Rays. Here’s Price talking about it.
Thursday’s games
1.Eric Hosmer kept taking the ball the other way, Andy McCullough writes.
2.Lance Lynn punched out a bunch of Braves.
3.Matt Moore had a better outing, writes Roger Mooney.
4. Carlos Correa had a big day at the plate and in the field, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz.
5.Bud Norrishad a tough job.
6.Josh Johnson had a great day.
Dings and dents
1.Taijuan Walker tested his shoulder and felt good.
2.Jason Giambi is going to be out awhile.
3.Sean Marshall is set to throw off a mound.
4.Pedro Florimon is ready for some game action.
5.Derek Norris was back in the Oakland lineup.
AL East
• The Yankees are headed to Panama.
• Jacoby Ellsbury is off to a slow start, writes Mark Feinsand.
• Jake Peavy threw a splitter.
• All signs point upward for the Red Sox, writes Gordon Edes.
• Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera are looking to bounce back.
AL Central
• Drew Smyly doesn’t have his cutter, yet.
• Marla Ridenhour wonders about the composition of the Cleveland rotation after the first three.
• The White Sox are trying to get Ronald Belisarioup to speed.
• Glen Perkins is the king of Perry’s Hill, writes Mike Berardino.
• Losing eats atJoe Mauer, writes Jim Souhan.
AL West
• Oakland’s new spring facility will be outstanding.
• Jon Singleton broke his hitless streak.
• The Rangers have a lot of catching up to do, writes Gil LeBreton.
• A couple of Oakland players are contemplating changes because of replay, writes John Hickey.
NL East
• Henderson Alvarez’s hitless streak ended.
• The Marlins hired an administrative coach.
NL Central
• Oscar Taveras must earn his promotion, writes Bernie Miklasz.
• Joey Votto is off to a slow start.
• Hal McCoy’s description of Bryan Price is interesting.
• The 2013 season is over for the Pirates, Dejan Kovacevic writes.
• Ray Searage has built trust with his pitchers.
NL West
• The new D-backs pitching coach has a presence.
• The Rockies will have a skilled and rangy defense, writes Troy Renck.
Yasiel Puig is proud of his defensive improvement.
Lastly
• Richard Durrett explains how the Rangers wound up with Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder.
• Larry Walker believes his chances for the Hall of Fame takes a pair of hits.
• Bruce Bochy won his first challenge.
And today will be better than yesterday.
1. The Tigers signedNate Robertson.
2.David Price will be the Opening Day starter for the Rays. Here’s Price talking about it.
Thursday’s games
1.Eric Hosmer kept taking the ball the other way, Andy McCullough writes.
2.Lance Lynn punched out a bunch of Braves.
3.Matt Moore had a better outing, writes Roger Mooney.
4. Carlos Correa had a big day at the plate and in the field, writes Jose de Jesus Ortiz.
5.Bud Norrishad a tough job.
6.Josh Johnson had a great day.
Dings and dents
1.Taijuan Walker tested his shoulder and felt good.
2.Jason Giambi is going to be out awhile.
3.Sean Marshall is set to throw off a mound.
4.Pedro Florimon is ready for some game action.
5.Derek Norris was back in the Oakland lineup.
AL East
• The Yankees are headed to Panama.
• Jacoby Ellsbury is off to a slow start, writes Mark Feinsand.
• Jake Peavy threw a splitter.
• All signs point upward for the Red Sox, writes Gordon Edes.
• Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera are looking to bounce back.
AL Central
• Drew Smyly doesn’t have his cutter, yet.
• Marla Ridenhour wonders about the composition of the Cleveland rotation after the first three.
• The White Sox are trying to get Ronald Belisarioup to speed.
• Glen Perkins is the king of Perry’s Hill, writes Mike Berardino.
• Losing eats atJoe Mauer, writes Jim Souhan.
AL West
• Oakland’s new spring facility will be outstanding.
• Jon Singleton broke his hitless streak.
• The Rangers have a lot of catching up to do, writes Gil LeBreton.
• A couple of Oakland players are contemplating changes because of replay, writes John Hickey.
NL East
• Henderson Alvarez’s hitless streak ended.
• The Marlins hired an administrative coach.
NL Central
• Oscar Taveras must earn his promotion, writes Bernie Miklasz.
• Joey Votto is off to a slow start.
• Hal McCoy’s description of Bryan Price is interesting.
• The 2013 season is over for the Pirates, Dejan Kovacevic writes.
• Ray Searage has built trust with his pitchers.
NL West
• The new D-backs pitching coach has a presence.
• The Rockies will have a skilled and rangy defense, writes Troy Renck.
Yasiel Puig is proud of his defensive improvement.
Lastly
• Richard Durrett explains how the Rangers wound up with Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder.
• Larry Walker believes his chances for the Hall of Fame takes a pair of hits.
• Bruce Bochy won his first challenge.
And today will be better than yesterday.
NBA version of March Madness
The NCAA tournament, which begins in earnest today with the start of what is now officially called the "second round," is everything the NBA playoffs are not. The thrilling one-and-done format makes every game a Game 7, but at the cost of the tension and drama that can build throughout a closely matched seven-game series like last season's NBA Finals.
The NCAA version is also much less likely to crown the best team champion, for better or worse.
But what if NBA fans didn't have to choose between the two formats? That's a possibility longtime NBA coach George Karl, working as an analyst for ESPN this season, has suggested. After taking part in the Copa del Rey tournament while coaching for Real Madrid in Spain during the 1980s and '90s, Karl has suggested (first in his book, "This Game's the Best," and more recently at this year's MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference) a European-style single-elimination tournament midseason to complement the traditional postseason.
So let's make Karl's HoopIdea reality. Here's how an NBA tournament might look.
The format
First, throw out conferences. While seeding without regard to conference creates travel issues in a best-of-seven series, for this tournament we're using neutral sites. So nine of the top 11 seeds come from the Western Conference, giving new life to teams like the Phoenix Suns, who might be left out of the NBA postseason.
To fill out a 32-team bracket, we'll need two additional teams. In the spirit of soccer's open cups, let's invite a team from the D-League and the NCAA. Using my NCAA and D-League translations along with the SCHOENE projection system, I estimated how the most talented D-League team (Sioux Falls, due to call-ups that have depleted teams with better records) and the NCAA's top team, Florida, would do against NBA competition.
With that, let's get to the odds for each eight-team region and the Final Four using my true talent rankings and log5 projections.
San Antonio region
Seed Team Rating Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4
1 San Antonio 61.5 1.00 .70 .48
8 Golden State 53.0 .77 .48 .21
9 Memphis 48.0 .67 .33 .13
16 Minnesota 49.7 .66 .23 .12
24 Sacramento 34.0 .33 .12 .03
17 Charlotte 36.0 .34 .07 .03
25 Boston 28.7 .23 .07 .01
32 Florida 1.2 .00 .00 .00
As the No. 1 overall seed riding an 11-game winning streak, the Spurs are the favorites to reach the Final Four so long as coach Gregg Popovich doesn't decide to rest his starters. Actually, he could probably do so against Florida. Alas, the No. 1 Gators are essentially a bye for the Spurs, who are projected to win 199 times out of every 200 matchups -- much more lopsided than any No. 1 vs. No. 16 matchup in the NCAA tournament.
SCHOENE estimates that Florida would on average win once during an 82-game NBA schedule, slightly worse than what I estimated for the more talented Kentucky Wildcats two years ago when they were being touted as NBA-caliber. Even if we matched the Gators up with the lowly Philadelphia 76ers, a fairer fight, the model estimates the Sixers would win 90 percent of the time.
Elsewhere, the Minnesota Timberwolves have to rue their placement. While this tournament gives them a chance to salvage their season, that hope is mitigated by a second-round matchup with San Antonio. The juggernaut Spurs might have more trouble with the winner of a Golden State-Memphis second-round clash, but still would likely cruise.
Indiana region
Seed Team Rating Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4
2 Indiana 51.3 .99 .63 .36
7 Portland 50.3 .77 .46 .25
10 Dallas 47.1 .65 .34 .17
15 Washington 41.2 .54 .21 .09
18 Atlanta 38.0 .46 .16 .07
23 Detroit 34.1 .35 .13 .05
26 L.A. Lakers 26.4 .23 .07 .02
31 Sioux Falls 1.8 .01 .00 .00
The slumping Indiana Pacers still get the No. 2 seed in this tournament, and a de facto bye against Sioux Falls. A D-League team might present a greater challenge early in the season, but by this point, most of the best players in the league have either been called up or gone overseas for bigger paydays, giving little hope of a historic upset. Translated statistics indicate the Skyforce would likely win about two games during a full NBA season.
If healthy, the Portland Trail Blazers would have the best chance of taking advantage of the weak No. 2 seed. But the Blazers wouldn't be a sure thing to even get past the Dallas Mavericks in the second round. Overall, this is the weakest of the four regions and also the most wide-open for a miracle run by a team like the Washington Wizards.
Oklahoma City region
Seed Team Rating Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4
6 Houston 56.3 .82 .60 .36
3 Oklahoma City 55.4 .84 .58 .34
14 Brooklyn 42.4 .55 .22 .10
11 Phoenix 39.3 .58 .21 .08
19 Denver 38.0 .45 .16 .06
22 Cleveland 32.5 .42 .12 .04
27 Utah 26.3 .18 .07 .02
30 Milwaukee 22.8 .16 .04 .01
While the third-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder are the nominal favorites, the Houston Rockets are still slight favorites to reach the Final Four on the strength of their superior recent play. The Rockets have an even easier path thanks to the Suns' poor rating, which dates back to low preseason expectations. Meanwhile, the Thunder could be vulnerable to the biggest surprise of the first round. The Milwaukee Bucks, who are more talented than their 30th seed would indicate, have a real chance of pulling the upset.
Miami region
Seed Team Rating Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4
5 L.A. Clippers 61.0 .87 .64 .41
4 Miami 55.2 .94 .61 .31
12 Toronto 45.9 .63 .23 .10
13 Chicago 46.0 .59 .24 .10
20 New York 38.5 .41 .14 .04
21 New Orleans 35.0 .37 .10 .03
28 Orlando 24.5 .13 .04 .01
29 Philadelphia 9.4 .06 .01 .00
The most exciting potential clash in the regionals would pit the surging Los Angeles Clippers against the two-time defending champion Miami Heat. While both teams would have to fight through challenging second-round opponents (the Toronto Raptors and the Chicago Bulls, respectively), a clash between Blake Griffin/Chris Paul and LeBron James/Dwyane Wade/Chris Bosh for a spot in the Final Four would be appointment viewing.
Another surprisingly interesting clash would take place in the first round, where the New York Knicks would test their seven-game winning streak against the Bulls.
Final Four
Seed Team Rating Final Champs
1 San Antonio 61.5 .28 .18
5 L.A. Clippers 61.0 .24 .15
6 Houston 56.3 .22 .11
3 Oklahoma City 55.4 .20 .10
4 Miami 55.2 .16 .09
2 Indiana 51.3 .18 .08
8 Golden State 53.0 .10 .05
7 Portland 50.3 .12 .05
10 Dallas 47.1 .08 .03
16 Minnesota 49.7 .05 .03
While seeding matters -- most clearly in avoiding San Antonio -- by the time we get to the odds of winning the tournament, talent is the dominant factor. So it is that the Clippers, seeded fifth, have the second-best chances after the Spurs. Besides the neutral court and lack of conferences -- the four most likely champions are all from the West -- the other factor that stands out is the expected potential for randomness.
We wouldn't expect any team to win the NBA tournament more than 20 percent of the time, similar to this year's NCAA odds. By contrast, simulations of the rest of the regular season and the playoffs show San Antonio (35 percent), the Clippers (21 percent) and Miami (17 percent) all combining to win the championship nearly three-quarters of the time. Just six teams win the NBA Finals even 2 percent of the time. And the Timberwolves would have nearly as good a chance of winning the tournament as they do of actually making this year's playoffs in the loaded West.
Based on those estimates, the same team would win the tournament and the NBA Finals about 13 percent of the time. So adding a tournament would likely give a second set of players, coaches and fans the chance to enjoy cutting down the nets.
Seed Team Rating Final Champs
1 San Antonio 61.5 .28 .18
5 L.A. Clippers 61.0 .24 .15
6 Houston 56.3 .22 .11
3 Oklahoma City 55.4 .20 .10
4 Miami 55.2 .16 .09
2 Indiana 51.3 .18 .08
8 Golden State 53.0 .10 .05
7 Portland 50.3 .12 .05
10 Dallas 47.1 .08 .03
16 Minnesota 49.7 .05 .03
While seeding matters -- most clearly in avoiding San Antonio -- by the time we get to the odds of winning the tournament, talent is the dominant factor. So it is that the Clippers, seeded fifth, have the second-best chances after the Spurs. Besides the neutral court and lack of conferences -- the four most likely champions are all from the West -- the other factor that stands out is the expected potential for randomness.
We wouldn't expect any team to win the NBA tournament more than 20 percent of the time, similar to this year's NCAA odds. By contrast, simulations of the rest of the regular season and the playoffs show San Antonio (35 percent), the Clippers (21 percent) and Miami (17 percent) all combining to win the championship nearly three-quarters of the time. Just six teams win the NBA Finals even 2 percent of the time. And the Timberwolves would have nearly as good a chance of winning the tournament as they do of actually making this year's playoffs in the loaded West.
Based on those estimates, the same team would win the tournament and the NBA Finals about 13 percent of the time. So adding a tournament would likely give a second set of players, coaches and fans the chance to enjoy cutting down the nets.
NBA develops players better
During his one-on-one interview with new NBA commissioner Adam Silver at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Malcolm Gladwell granted Silver the ability to wave a wand and change anything about the league he wanted. (Despite the perception of predecessor David Stern, the commissioner does not enjoy such power.)
Of all the issues he has highlighted in his first month-plus on the job, Silver chose to raise the NBA's age limit, preventing players from entering the draft until two years out of high school. This issue, which was tabled during negotiations with the National Basketball Players Association on the last collective bargaining agreement, was discussed in sports lawyer Michael McCann's paper here and has been a consistent theme for Silver.
"If those players had the benefit to play for some of these great college coaches for longer periods of time," Silver said in his availability at the All-Star Game, "I think it would lead to stronger college basketball and stronger NBA ball, as well."
The implication here is that an increased age limit helps all parties. The upside for the NCAA is obvious, and NBA teams certainly would prefer more time to scout prospects. But the numbers suggest that the players themselves might not benefit as much from another year on a college court as Silver suggests.
Going back to school
Although we can't run an experiment on how things would be different with a higher age limit, there is a group of relevant prospects we can use as a point of comparison: players who chose to return to school for their sophomore seasons. Specifically, I looked at players from the past five drafts who were in Chad Ford's top 30 the summer before their sophomore year and ultimately were drafted in the first round. Not all of these players would have been first-round picks had they turned pro as freshmen, but many of them -- notably Jared Sullinger, Harrison Barnes and Cody Zeller -- passed up the chance to go in the lottery.
As a control group, I used players who actually were one-and-done from the equivalent recruiting classes, covering the 2008-12 drafts. This group is somewhat more talented -- it includes four of the five No. 1 picks -- but the sophomores are strong in their own right. Of the 14 sophomores who qualify, 12 went in the lottery, and James Harden and Paul George are now All-NBA contributors.
We're not interested in the overall performance of these groups anyway. Instead, we want to focus on how they developed year to year. That's where my NCAA-to-NBA translations come in handy. They allow us to put college and NBA performance on the same scale (using player win percentage, the per-minute component of my WARP rating that is equivalent to PER).
That shows something remarkable. On average, the sophomores who returned performed only marginally better than they did as freshmen.
Sophomore development (player win pct.)
Player Draft Pick Fresh Soph Rookie Imp. 1Imp. 2
Paul George201010.374.452.477.077.025
Ed Davis201013.385.439.510.054.071
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope20138.398.448.367.050-.082
Al-Farouq Aminu20108.355.393.402.038.010
Jonny Flynn20096.361.385.413.025.028
Terrence Ross20128.363.361.394-.001.032
Kawhi Leonard201115.426.421.569-.006.148
Greg Monroe20107.459.452.558-.007.106
James Harden20093.504.493.515-.011.022
Alec Burks201112.419.405.420-.014.015
Jared Sullinger201221.459.444.458-.015.014
Harrison Barnes20127.329.311.376-.018.066
Cody Zeller20134.464.410.403-.054-.007
Austin Daye200915.423.349.446-.074.098
Average .408.412.451.003.039
Amazingly, of the 14 sophomores who qualify (which requires playing at least 500 minutes all three seasons, a criterion that knocks out Blake Griffin, among others), nine rated worse as sophomores than freshmen. That includes basically all the high-profile freshmen who passed on the draft and saw their stock fall.
One-and-dones develop quicker
For comparison's sake, here are how the one-and-done players who qualified developed over the same three seasons, two of them in the NBA.
Freshman development
PlayerDraftPickFreshRookieSophImp. 1Imp. 2
Eric Gordon20087.364.474.460.111-.014
Brandon Knight20118.329.422.415.093-.008
Maurice Harkless201215.339.431.462.092.031
Kyrie Irving20111.527.615.606.089-.010
John Wall20101.401.482.518.081.035
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist20122.355.424.381.069-.043
Derrick Rose20081.404.465.503.062.037
Jrue Holiday200917.397.454.512.057.059
Bradley Beal20123.422.466.446.044-.020
Derrick Favors20103.410.449.532.039.083
DeMar DeRozan20099.323.361.372.038.011
Anthony Davis20121.594.626.719.032.094
Austin Rivers201210.284.256.361-.027.104
Kevin Love20085.631.555.643-.075.088
Jerryd Bayless200811.380.302.431-.078.130
DeMarcus Cousins20105.530.444.599-.086.155
Michael Beasley20082.580.454.464-.126.010
Xavier Henry201012.399.257.326-.141.068
.417.461.497.044.036
Although this group rated slightly better as NCAA freshmen, which makes sense given their perceived higher upside, 15 of the 21 improved as NBA rookies relative to their translated NCAA performance. On average, their win percentage went up by 10.5 percent, better even than we'd expect from players of this age.
Now, this study could be picking up on the superior potential of one-and-done prospects, a possible factor in why they generally were more coveted after one year in college. However, the development advantage disappears by the time both groups are in the NBA. In their third year out of high school -- the rookie season for the sophomores and second year for the freshmen -- the sophomores actually improve slightly more. But this difference isn't nearly enough to make up the development they missed out on between their two years of college. Here's how the averages compare visually:
Why the NBA develops better
Despite the quality of coaching at the NCAA level touted by Silver, there are a variety of reasons the NBA might be a better place for elite prospects to develop. Their athletic and skill advantages, especially against the lesser foes that are commonplace on nonconference schedules, might allow them to get away with coasting rather than developing their ability. And opponents often attempt to make up that gap with junk defenses and zones that don't allow stars to showcase the strengths that will help them in the NBA.
That makes Mark Cuban's position intriguing. The Dallas Mavericks owner said last week that he thinks the NBA Development League is a better place to develop young talent than the NCAA. Although Cuban's argument was built on the ability to support players off the court, he also said there's "no question" that prospects would be better off basketball-wise in the D-League.
Because few top prospects have skipped college hoops entirely, there's no comparison group of D-Leaguers to assess Cuban's claim. But the league shares common rules with the NBA and offers a more consistent level of competition than the NCAA, two potential advantages for development.
Any changes to the age limit won't be determined until the players' association has named a new executive director. Whoever replaces Billy Hunter in that role would be wise not to assume an increase in the age limit is in the best interests of the players in the long run. Instead, recent results indicate that ensuring top prospects can come to the NBA after one season in college might be best for their development.
Despite the quality of coaching at the NCAA level touted by Silver, there are a variety of reasons the NBA might be a better place for elite prospects to develop. Their athletic and skill advantages, especially against the lesser foes that are commonplace on nonconference schedules, might allow them to get away with coasting rather than developing their ability. And opponents often attempt to make up that gap with junk defenses and zones that don't allow stars to showcase the strengths that will help them in the NBA.
That makes Mark Cuban's position intriguing. The Dallas Mavericks owner said last week that he thinks the NBA Development League is a better place to develop young talent than the NCAA. Although Cuban's argument was built on the ability to support players off the court, he also said there's "no question" that prospects would be better off basketball-wise in the D-League.
Because few top prospects have skipped college hoops entirely, there's no comparison group of D-Leaguers to assess Cuban's claim. But the league shares common rules with the NBA and offers a more consistent level of competition than the NCAA, two potential advantages for development.
Any changes to the age limit won't be determined until the players' association has named a new executive director. Whoever replaces Billy Hunter in that role would be wise not to assume an increase in the age limit is in the best interests of the players in the long run. Instead, recent results indicate that ensuring top prospects can come to the NBA after one season in college might be best for their development.