Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

9. Dallas Mavericks

Dennis Smith
NC State
Freshman
Guard

Other potential draftees: Jonathan Isaac, Frank Ntilikina, Lauri Markkanen, Zach Collins

The Mavs covet Isaac and have been trying to move up a couple of spots to grab him. So far, they've been unable to work out a deal.

The Mavs were strongly leaning toward Ntilikina, to the point that they invited his head coach at Strasbourg, Vincent Collet, to come coach the Mavs' Orlando Summer League team. However, they walked away from a workout with Smith last week totally smitten by Smith's athleticism and scoring abilities.

If both are on the board, this becomes a really tough decision between getting the best player now and potentially the best player in three years. Dallas hasn't had to be patient for a while. Can it?

There's also talk of the Mavs swapping picks with the Wolves, but right now the cost is too high for Dallas.





10. Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)

Zach Collins
Gonzaga
Freshman
Center

Other potential draftees: John Collins, Malik Monk, Harry Giles

The Kings' other major need is at small forward. With Rudy Gay planning to opt out, they have a major hole there. The problem is that there just aren't any small forwards available who are worth taking this high.

Collins is an athletic rim-protector who can also stretch the floor. They have a number of bigs with Skal Labissiere, Willie Cauley-Stein and Georgios Papagiannis already on the roster, but Collins' talent is worth a selection here.

The other two dark horses for this spot in Sacramento are Wake Forest's John Collins and Duke's Harry Giles. A lot of scouts are split on these three bigs.

Monk's elite shooting ability and value here also make him tempting -- and De'Aaron Fox has been pushing for a reunion with his teammate, if Fox goes No. 5.

It's also worth noting that a number of teams are trying to trade for this pick from the Kings, including the Lakers, Spurs and Knicks.







11. Charlotte Hornets

Malik Monk
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

Other potential draftees: Donovan Mitchell, Luke Kennard

The Hornets traded for Dwight Howard on Tuesday, shoring up their frontcourt. Look for them to try to address their backcourt in the draft.

Monk's elite shooting ability and athleticism give him a leg up over the other two 2-guards who could go ahead of him. Mitchell's elite length and defensive abilities are his biggest strengths.

Kennard is every bit as good a shooter as Monk and might be a better playmaker, but he's not nearly the athlete the other two players are.





12. Detroit Pistons

Luke Kennard
Duke
Sophomore
Guard

Other potential draftees: Zach Collins, Donovan Mitchell, John Collins, Harry Giles

Kennard is getting interest as high as No. 8 to the Knicks, No. 10 to the Kings and No. 11 to the Hornets. The Lakers have also been looking at possibly picking up another pick or trading down to get him along with other pieces.

I think this would be his floor. The Pistons need shooting, and Kennard might be the best shooter in the draft.





13. Denver Nuggets

OG Anunoby
Indiana
Sophomore
Forward

Other potential draftees: Zach Collins, John Collins, Harry Giles

Teams are a bit divided when it comes to Anunoby's recovery from a January ACL tear. Some see zero problems and feel he's well on his way to a full recovery some time this winter. Others feel it could be longer.

Either way, the Nuggets can afford to be patient. Picking Anunoby isn't about the coming season, it's about the future, and he gives head coach Mike Malone the best 3-and-D player in the draft.

John Collins and Giles are other strong possibilities at No. 13.





14. Miami Heat

Donovan Mitchell
Louisville
Sophomore
Guard

Other potential draftees: Zach Collins, John Collins, Luke Kennard, Harry Giles

Mitchell is a hot name right now and has drawn serious interest even from teams in the top 10. However, it's also very plausible that he slides a few spots to Miami. His combination of length, athleticism and offensive and defensive versatility is a major appeal.

The Heat are also eyeing several players to pair in the frontcourt with Hassan Whiteside. Zach Collins, John Collins and Harry Giles are the three strongest contenders at this point.







15. Portland Trail Blazers

Harry Giles
Duke
Freshman
Forward

Other potential draftees: John Collins, OG Anunoby, Edrice Adebayo

No one can pinpoint exactly where Giles' reward outweighs the very real medical risks he poses. But a number of GMs have told me their medical staffs are comfortable with his knees and aren't red-flagging him.

He has been impressive in workouts. He has elite length, athleticism and a motor. He might never live up to the hype he generated in high school, but there are few players in this draft with his potential. No. 15 seems like the right spot to swing for the fences, especially when the Blazers have two other picks.





16. Chicago Bulls

John Collins
Wake Forest
Sophomore
Forward

Other potential draftees: Harry Giles, Jarrett Allen, Ike Anigbogu

Collins is a bit of a polarizing prospect. Some see a young, skilled big man who can score in the paint and rebound. He also has an emerging perimeter game. Others see a short-armed, old-school power forward who didn't show many signs at Wake Forest of being the stretch-4 the NBA covets. He's definitely an eye-of-the-beholder-type player, but he should be a good fit in Chicago.

One other note on the Bulls: They are eyeing several potential Jimmy Butler trades that would give them a lottery pick between Nos. 3-7. Sources say they are very high on De'Aaron Fox if they get a pick from the Celtics or Suns. I don't think he'll be there at No. 7, and they might have to settle on either Dennis Smith or Frank Ntilikina if they trade up.







17. Milwaukee Bucks

Edrice Adebayo
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward

Other potential draftees: Harry Giles, Justin Patton, Jarrett Allen

A shake-up in the Bucks' front office has everyone guessing about what new GM Jon Horst is going to do at No. 17. There was a growing consensus before he got the job that if Adebayo was on the board, they'd bite. He was a bit disappointing at Kentucky, but his athleticism, lateral quickness and NBA body are all major selling points.

I also hear that this is the floor for Harry Giles if he's still on the board.





18. Indiana Pacers

Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
Freshman
Center

Other potential draftees: Edrice Adebayo, TJ Leaf

The Pacers seem high on Adebayo, but he might not make it to No. 18. If he's gone, they can go with another young, super-athletic big man in Anigbogu.

He's even more raw than Adebayo but plays with more toughness, and he's also a better shot-blocker. Concerns about a meniscus tear at the start of his season at UCLA has given some teams pause about drafting him this high. However, other teams seem much less wary.

 

[Skooby]

19. Atlanta Hawks

Justin Patton
Creighton
Freshman
Center

Other potential draftees: Jarrett Allen, Anzejs Pasecniks, Tony Bradley

The Hawks shipped Dwight Howard off to the Hornets on Tuesday in a deal that netted them Miles Plumlee. It has created a major gap in the middle that the Hawks will eventually have to fill.

With Paul Millsap hitting free agency, it looks as if their entire frontcourt could turn over. Patton is raw, but there is so much talent there. He runs the floor well, has a soft touch, plays with efficiency in the paint and can even stretch the floor. He's worth a gamble here.







20. Portland Trail Blazers (via Grizzlies)

TJ Leaf
UCLA
Freshman
Forward

Other potential draftees: Jarrett Allen, Anzejs Pasecniks, Tony Bradley

It's sounding more and more as if the Blazers are going to keep all three of their picks. Owner Paul Allen does love draft picks.

Leaf is one of the most skilled scorers in the draft. He lacks elite length and needs to add strength, but he can provide a spark off the bench offensively.





21. Oklahoma City Thunder

Justin Jackson
North Carolina
Junior
Forward

Other potential draftees: TJ Leaf, Jonah Bolden, Frank Jackson, Semi Ojeleye, Terrance Ferguson

The Thunder can always use more shooting, and Jackson has great potential from range.

He's not a great athlete and can be streaky, but the rest of his game is way ahead of the other top potential shooter in the draft, Terrance Ferguson.





22. Brooklyn Nets (via Wizards)

D.J. Wilson
Michigan
Junior
Forward

Other potential draftees: Tony Bradley, Anzejs Pasecniks, Terrance Ferguson

The word around the NBA is that the Nets promised Wilson they'd take him. Whether that was at No. 27 (the pick they traded to the Lakers this week) or here is unclear.

Given that they just traded Brook Lopez (and because Timofey Mozgov is ... unreliable), a center like Bradley or Pasecniks makes sense here. However, Wilson could become a stretch-4 who pairs nicely with D'Angelo Russell.

Don't count out Ferguson here, either. The Nets have watched him closely and could use a shooter.







23. Toronto Raptors (via Clippers)

Jonah Bolden
Australia
Age: 21
Forward

Other potential draftees: Semi Ojeleye, Tony Bradley, Tyler Lydon

Bolden left UCLA after his freshman season and had a very successful stint in Serbia this year. He's an athletic, versatile forward who can shoot and pass the ball.

He has become quite the sleeper among NBA scouts, and Raptors GM Masai Ujiri has a penchant for finding and drafting similar under-the-radar prospects.







24. Utah Jazz

Frank Jackson
Duke
Freshman
Guard

Other potential draftees: D.J. Wilson, Tony Bradley Anzejs Pasecniks, Tyler Lydon, Semi Ojeleye

A number of GMs believe that Jackson received a draft promise after an impressive first day at the NBA combine. The question is where.

Several teams in the 20s are potential culprits. The Jazz don't historically make promises to players and I don't think they did here, but they like him and his combination of athleticism and shooting are a fit.





25. Orlando Magic (via Raptors)

Anzejs Pasecniks
Latvia
Age: 21
Center

Other potential draftees: Tyler Lydon, Terrance Ferguson, Jarrett Allen

The Magic could use a little more help in the frontcourt, and Pasecniks offers the best of both worlds.

He's a terrific shooter with skill. Orlando can continue to keep him in Europe to work on his game.







26. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavaliers)

Jarrett Allen
Texas
Freshman
Center

Other potential draftees: Terrance Ferguson, Semi Ojeleye, Derrick White

This might be too much of a fall for Allen, who is getting looks as high as the late lottery.

He's an athletic, mobile big man with some rebounding and shot-blocking ability. He just needs to get stronger. Adding him to the mix for the Blazers would give them a very nice haul of prospects.







27. Los Angeles Lakers (via Nets)

Tyler Lydon
Syracuse
Sophomore
Forward



Other potential draftees: D.J. Wilson, Terrance Ferguson, Jawun Evans, Derrick White

Lydon is an intriguing prospect who can play the 3 and the 4. He can shoot with range and protect the rim.

He needs to get stronger and become more aggressive, but he's good value at this point in the draft.







28. Los Angeles Lakers (via Rockets)

Kyle Kuzma
Utah
Junior
Forward

Other potential draftees: Terrance Ferguson, Jawun Evans, Derrick White

Kuzma was one of the stars of the NBA draft combine. He can defend, make plays and stretch the floor.

If the Lakers don't trade this pick, he'd give them another veteran big who could crack the rotation.

 

[Skooby]

29. San Antonio Spurs

Derrick White
Colorado
Senior
Guard

Other potential draftees: Kyle Kuzma, Josh Hart, Terrance Ferguson

The Spurs like Kuzma a lot, but in this scenario he's off the board.

Even if he's on the board, they could decide to go with White, one of the stars of the combine. His combination of athleticism and versatility are a good fit in their backcourt.





30. Utah Jazz (via Warriors)

Tony Bradley
North Carolina
Freshman
Center



Other potential draftees: Anzejs Pasecniks, Tyler Lydon, Jarrett Allen, Semi Ojeleye

The Jazz had a pretty steep drop-off when Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors weren't patrolling the paint. Bradley isn't ready yet, but he's a very good rebounder and once he gets in shape he should be a solid defender in the paint





Round 2
31. Charlotte Hornets (via Hawks)

Terrance Ferguson, SG, Age: 19, Australia

32. Phoenix Suns

Semi Ojeleye, F, Jr., SMU

33. Orlando Magic (via Lakers)

Jawun Evans, Oklahoma State, So., Point guard

34. Sacramento Kings (via Sixers)

Ivan Rabb, Cal, So., Power forward

35. Orlando Magic

Isaiah Hartenstein, Germany, Age: 19, Forward

36. Philadelphia 76ers (via Knicks)

Josh Hart, G, Sr., Villanova

37. Boston Celtics (via Wolves)

Jordan Bell, Oregon, Jr., Power forward

38. Chicago Bulls (via Kings)

Monte Morris, Iowa State, Sr., Point guard

39. Philadelphia 76ers (via Mavericks)

Tyler Dorsey, Oregon, So., Guard

40. New Orleans Pelicans

Caleb Swanigan, Purdue, So., Power forward

41. Atlanta Hawks (via Hornets)

Alec Peters, Valparaiso, Sr., Forward

42. Utah Jazz (via Pistons)

Mathias Lessort, France, Age: 21, Power forward

43. Houston Rockets (via Nuggets)

Sterling Brown, SMU, Sr., Guard

44. New York Knicks (via Bulls)

Davon Reed, Miami, Sr., Shooting guard

45. Houston Rockets (via Blazers)

Frank Mason, Kansas, Sr., Point guard

46. Philadelphia 76ers (via Heat)

Devin Robinson, Florida, Jr., Small forward

47. Indiana Pacers

Johnathan Motley, Baylor, Jr., Power forward

48. Milwaukee Bucks

Thomas Bryant, Indiana, So., Center

49. Denver Nuggets (via Grizzlies)

Jonathan Jeanne, France, Age: 20, Center

50. Philadelphia 76ers (via Hawks)

Aleksandar Vezenkov, Cyprus, Age: 21, Forward

51. Denver Nuggets (via Thunder)

Alpha Kaba, France, Age: 21, Forward

52. New Orleans Pelicans (via Wizards)

Edmond Sumner, Xavier, So., Point guard

53. Boston Celtics (via Cavaliers)

Jeremy Morgan, Northern Iowa, Sr., Shooting guard

54. Phoenix Suns (via Raptors)

Simon Birgander, Sweden, Age: 19, Small forward

55. Utah Jazz

Nedim Buza, Bosnia, Age: 22, Small forward

56. Boston Celtics (via Clippers)

Ognjen Jaramaz, Serbia, Age: 21, Point guard

57. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)

Dillon Brooks, Oregon, Jr., Forward

58. New York Knicks (via Rockets)

Cameron Oliver, Nevada. So., Power forward

59. San Antonio Spurs

Kobi Simmons, Arizona, Fr., Point guard

60. Atlanta Hawks (via Warriors)

Kenan Sipahi, Turkey, Age: 22, Point guard

 

[Da_Eggman]

Ranking the strengths of NL contenders

Trade grades: Which team flunked the Jimmy Butler deal?

Ranking NBA teams, top to bottom, in draft picks


Trade grades: Is Jordan Bell a steal for the Warriors?

 

[Skooby]

Ranking the strengths of NL contenders

Ranking the strengths of National League contenders



As we get closer to the trade deadline, teams are assessing their weaknesses to get a sense of where they might need help to secure a playoff berth and go on a deep run in October. For now, let's focus on the other side of the coin for the National League teams and look at their strengths. What makes these contenders good in the first place and what players and factors can carry these teams to the postseason? I took a look at every NL team with at least a 10 percent shot at the playoffs, per FanGraphs' Playoff Odds plus the first-place Brewers and ranked the teams' respective strengths.

15. The speed of the Arizona Diamondbacks: What the D-backs may lack in hitting, they often make up for on the basepaths. They don't lead the league in steals with their 57 bags as they sit a handful behind Billy Hamilton's Reds and the Brewers, but nobody is better at taking the extra base on hits. Looking at going first-to-third on a single, first-to-home on a double and second-to-home on a single, Arizona gets that extra base 49 percent of the time, well above the league average of 40 percent. Only the Braves are higher at 50 percent, but the Diamondbacks also lead the league with just 13 outs made on the bases, four fewer than the second-best Braves.

Paul Goldschmidt leads the team with 13 steals, but four others have at least five, so speed isn't just coming from one dominant baserunner like the Reds with Hamilton. Eight Diamondbacks have been at least one run above average on the bases this season. Put all that together and Arizona has been more than 18 runs above average on the basepaths, first in the majors. In close games and close races, those extra bases can make a difference.

14. The Colorado Rockies' bullpen: Signing Greg Holland was a bit of a risk after he had missed all of the 2016 season, but the Rockies' closer has been lights-out, giving up just five runs in 29 appearances, 28 times finishing off a Rockies victory. It isn't just Holland getting the job done. Jake McGee has been very good, Adam Ottavino has been solid, and Chris Rusin has helped out as a multi-inning reliever. Their 4.36 ERA might not scream greatness, but when you add the Coors Field factor, it's still much better than average, and the pen's 3.06 ERA on the road is a truer indicator of their talent.

The pen's success has been well-timed as the Rockies lead the majors in win probability added. FanGraphs has two stats, shutdowns and meltdowns, measuring when a bullpen comes in and materially affects the team's chances of winning in either a positive or negative direction. The Rockies' 68 shutdowns is third in MLB and their 23 meltdowns rank first, and the difference of 45 between the two is first by a wide margin. Only the Diamondbacks have a gap more than 30 in the NL.

13. The Milwaukee Brewers' all-or-nothing swings: Nobody knows how long the Brewers are going to hang around the playoff race. Not a lot about the Brewers stands out. They've gotten solid pitching, in particular from Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson, with a healthy Junior Guerra potentially providing a third option, but overall the staff hasn't been great. They don't have a great bullpen. The offense is in the middle of the pack. Their defense, too. The only area where the Brewers seem to be among the leaders is a negative. In the NL, only the Padres have struck out at a greater rate than the Brewers' 25 percent this season, and their 11.6 percent swinging-strike rate is worst in the NL.

But selling out for big swings brings rewards. When you take pitchers' at-bats out of the equation, only the Nationals' hitters have a higher isolated slugging percentage than the .202 put up by the Brewers this season, and only the Nationals among NL teams have homered more than the Brewers. You already know about Eric Thames, but Travis Shaw, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton and Hernan Perez all have double-digit homers. If the Brewers are going to keep this up, they are going to have to keep hitting the ball out of the park.

12. Stephen Strasburg: If it weren't for what Max Scherzer is doing, more people might be talking about Strasburg's excellent season for the Nationals. After missing a good chunk of both 2015 and 2016, Strasburg is in the first year of his seven-year, $175 million contract extension he signed last season. His strikeout rate remains elite and his walk rate is above-average; given the increase in offense we've seen over the last few years, the performance this year for Strasburg might be his best yet. For a franchise that has enjoyed regular-season success, but failed to win a playoff series, having Strasburg at his best in addition to Scherzer in the playoffs might finally get them to the next round.

11. Arizona's co-aces, the best lefty-righty pitching combo in baseball: Last season, Zach Greinke looked like a bit of a bust in the first year of his $206 million contract. His ERA and FIP were over four and he managed to throw just 158 ⅔ innings -- the first time he dipped below 160 innings since 2007 when he spent half the year as a reliever. He still has a long way to go to live up to his contract, but he's certainly pitching like an ace right now with 111 strikeouts against just 19 walks in 97 ⅓ innings.

Greinke's return to form has been encouraging, but Robbie Ray's attempt to join Greinke as co-ace have been a very welcome surprise for the Diamondbacks. Last season, Ray had very good strikeout numbers, a decent amount of walks and was pretty close to average for homers, considering the park he pitches in. It added up to a solid 3.76 FIP, but a .352 BABIP and a below-average 69 percent left-on-base rate inflated his ERA to a poor 4.90. This year Ray still has the high strikeout rate and he's still walking quite a few guys, but he has been a bit better on the homers, leading to a good 3.40 FIP. He's also on the good side of the coin in terms of BABIP and left-on-base percentage, bringing his ERA to an excellent 2.87. He might not continue to get that kind of luck going forward, but Ray has established himself as a good foil for Greinke.

10. The Chicago Cubs' patience: Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo serve to anchor the Cubs' offense. They haven't gotten a lot of help down the lineup, but that tandem hasn't let it affect them. Now hitting one-two atop the Cubs' lineup, they have walk rates near 15 percent. Not much has gone right for Kyle Schwarber as he's a demotion, but he can still take a walk with his 14 percent walk rate. Assuming Schwarber gets back on track, those three batters can do a lot of damage. Add in currently injured Ben Zobrist's 12 percent walk rate and new addition Ian Happ's 11 percent walk rate, and getting on base can help a team fight through slumps. The Cubs' offense has been below-average this season, but Rizzo and Bryant are keeping the group afloat, in part by doing the most important thing a hitter can do: avoid outs.

9. Carlos Martinez: The Cardinals' ace has quietly turned himself into one of the best pitchers in baseball. In 2015, he rode a high strikeout rate to a 3.01 ERA, a 3.21 FIP and an All-Star appearance. Last year, his strikeout rate came down, but he generated a lot of weak contact, leading to another solid season with a 3.04 ERA and 3.61 FIP. This year, he has combined both, striking out 28 percent of batters and inducing a lot of infield flies and weak ground balls. His 2.87 ERA is behind just Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw in the NL, and his 2.7 WAR trails only Scherzer among NL pitchers this season. Over his last seven starts, he is averaging more than seven innings per start with a stellar 1.92 ERA. On a team struggling to find its identity and lacking a true star, the Cardinals will need Martinez to continue to dominate every time out.

8. The Cubs' defense: The Cubs haven't gotten off to the start everyone expected this season; the pitching has been mediocre and the offense hasn't been good, either. But the defense has come through once again. The group isn't as strong as it was last season -- you can blame Schwarber's time in left field for much of that -- but it is still a solid group led by Gold Glover Jason Heyward along with a very strong infield defense with Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Bryant and Rizzo. The Cubs' ERA of 4.01 doesn't look great compared to last year's 3.15, but it could be worse as the team FIP is 4.21. Cubs' BABIP against is still one of the better figures in the league, which means the Cubs' defense is still doing a very good job of turning balls in play into outs.

7. Max Scherzer: Kershaw might not be the best pitcher in the National League, but if he's not, then Scherzer is. Last year's Cy Young Award winner has avoided the slow start from last season by striking out 145 against just 24 walks in 107 ⅔ innings. His near no-hitter dropped his ERA to 2.07 with great peripherals leading to a 2.77 FIP. Over the last four years, including playoffs, Scherzer has exceeded 225 innings every year, averaging 233 ⅓ innings per season during that time. Nearing 100 innings already this year, he is the workhorse the team can build a staff around -- and win a short series with up front.

6. The Los Angeles Dodgers' back-to-back rookie sensations: Last year, Corey Seager quickly emerged as the clear favorite for Rookie of the Year and ended up an MVP candidate, finishing third behind Kris Bryant and Daniel Murphy. Seager has had little trouble this year producing at a level comparable to last season, with a 141 wRC+ and a great all-around game. A teammate is now attempting to follow that path; although Cody Bellinger didn't start the season in the majors, he's not giving up his spot now that he has one, playing outfield as well as first base to stay in the lineup. Nobody, not even Aaron Judge, hits homers as often as Bellinger has, cranking out 22 homers in just over 200 plate appearances. With Justin Turner now back, the Dodgers could rival the Nationals for the best offense in the National League.

 

[Skooby]

5. The Rockies' road work: Taking advantage of the thin air in Colorado has long been the hallmark of Rockies teams. They've led the National League in slugging each of the past four years, but the offense has been a bit overlooked this season as their .179 isolated slugging percentage is just middle of the pack, and overall the offense is about 10 percent below league average. But the team is doing its work on the road, winning nearly two-thirds of its games away from Coors Field. The rotation lacks a dynamic presence, but a bunch of solid, pitch-to-contact pitchers are letting the defense excel. The Rockies have been 13 runs above average on defense this season per ultimate zone rating. This could be the first time since 2007 that the Rockies have posted an above-average number. That 2007 season went pretty well for the Rockies as the team ended up in the World Series. Winning on the road can make the difference in the playoffs, and the Rockies appear prepared to take advantage.

4. Paul Goldschmidt: He might not bring the awe of the NL's top slugger (more on that guy in a moment), but the Arizona Diamondbacks' first baseman has been the single best offensive player in the NL so far this season. Goldschmidt does everything well as a hitter -- hitting for average and power while drawing walks -- and his baserunning makes him a complete player. Last season, Goldschmidt became the only first baseman this century to steal 30 bases. He has a shot to do it in back-to-back seasons, which hasn't been done since George Sisler in 1921 and 1922. His 3.9 fWAR paces the NL by more than half a win, and it is possible that no player is more important to his team's success than Goldschmidt. His wRC+ this season is 169, while the rest of the team is a well-below-average 88.

3. The Washington Nationals' contact-and-power lineup: The Nationals are a high-contact team, with their strikeout rate under 20 percent ranking in the top third in the National League. That contact has helped propel them to an NL-best .274 average, and an average walk rate puts their OBP at a .339 clip (second in the NL). The team has combined that contact with power for a league-leading .198 ISO. Murphy has been hot for nearly two years now, and he strikes out in just 10 percent of his plate appearances despite very good power numbers. Anthony Rendon strikes out just 14 percent of the time, while the resurgent Ryan Zimmerman is still better than league average at just 18 percent. Washington boasts four of the top 15 batters in the NL right now with no other team having two players ranked that high.

2. Bryce Harper: If there's one player in the National League about whom you say, "Don't let this guy beat you," it's Bryce Harper. After one of the greatest offensive seasons of all time in 2015, Harper was merely good last year. This season, the great version of Harper appears to be back. He leads all of baseball in intentional walks. Among NL players, only Harper, Goldschmidt and Joey Votto have put up on-base percentages above .400 and slugging percentages above .596 this year. If need be, he can carry an offense, though he might not have to.

1. The Dodgers' Clayton-to-Kenley combo: Clayton Kershaw might not have the best playoff reputation -- though some of it is undeserved, as bullpens, pitching on short rest and a slow managerial hook, have hurt him. And the number of homers he has allowed this season have made him merely one of the best pitchers in baseball instead of clearly the best. However, he's still one of the best pitchers in baseball, striking out 115 against 17 walks in 103 ⅓ innings pitched this season.

In Kenley Jansen, Kershaw has the perfect back-end complement to finish a game. Jansen has 50 strikeouts, no walks and has given up one homer -- a solo shot in a four-run game -- in 31 innings. The Dodgers closer has entered a game 22 times when his team was either tied or ahead by one or two runs, and he has yet to give up a single run in those situations. He has pitched more than one inning six times this season after five scoreless multi-inning appearances in the playoffs last year.

 

[Skooby]

Trade grades: Which team flunked the Jimmy Butler deal?



The deal
Bulls get: Guards Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine, No. 7 pick of 2017 draft (Lauri Markkanen)

Timberwolves get: Guard Jimmy Butler, No. 16 pick of 2017 draft (Justin Patton)








Chicago Bulls: F

After Chicago reportedly demanded multiple high draft picks (including the one that ultimately landed No. 1 overall) from the Boston Celtics at the trade deadline, it's stunning to see the Bulls deal Butler for such a paltry package.

In Butler, the Bulls had one of the most valuable player contracts in the entire league. Butler rated third in wins produced based on ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) in 2016-17, behind LeBron James and Stephen Curry. He has two more guaranteed years remaining at $18.7 million and $19.8 million before a player option for 2019-20 (also for $19.8 million) that he's sure to decline, barring injury. Over those two years, I project Butler's production as worth about $90 million, giving Butler more than $50 million in surplus value to his team. That ranks 10th in the league.

Clearly, Chicago is valuing Dunn like the elite point guard prospect a handful of teams thought he was during the draft process this time a year ago, and LaVine as a guard with star potential. Those assessments don't hold up to stronger scrutiny.

Given his age, Dunn was never a favorite of my statistical draft projections. He ranked 18th among last year's prospects in my stats-only projections and seventh when his draft slot (fifth overall, which also is predictive) was taken into account.

Dunn's performance as a rookie reconfirmed those concerns. He shot just 28.8 percent from 3-point range on 2.0 attempts per 36 minutes, and he wasn't much better inside the arc, at 40.4 percent. Among the 282 players who played at least 1,000 minutes last season, Dunn's .432 true shooting percentage ranked dead last.

On the plus side, Dunn showed strong defensive potential, and he played a little better off the ball after Minnesota coach Tom Thibodeau began playing him alongside pass-first point guard Tyus Jones. It's true that point guards develop later than players at other positions, so we shouldn't think of Dunn as a finished product at age 23.

That said, no objective analysis of Dunn's rookie season suggests he's likely to develop into an NBA starting point guard, which is how the Bulls are almost certainly valuing him in this trade.

Then there's LaVine, who showed exciting scoring ability before a torn ACL ended his 2016-17 campaign in early February. His 18.9 points per game last season were the sixth most by a player age 22 or younger, trailing Timberwolves teammates Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker and Jabari Parker. LaVine accomplished that on good efficiency, posting a .576 true shooting percentage.

The problem is on the defensive end of the court. LaVine is a poor individual defender whose team defense instincts are lacking. He also generates few steals and is a nonfactor on the defensive glass. LaVine's minus-2.4 defensive RPM ranked in the league's bottom 30. To become something more than a potent sixth man, LaVine will have to improve defensively.

Worse yet, LaVine is entering the final season of his rookie contract. A realistic timetable for his recovery from ACL surgery makes it unlikely LaVine will be back for training camp, meaning Chicago will probably have to decide on a possible extension for him before seeing him take the court. The Bulls can wait for LaVine to become a restricted free agent and decide whether to match any offer, certainly, but at that point he would be more likely to be fairly paid than the kind of bargain Chicago should have been seeking as part of a package for Butler.

Without being in the room for trade talks, it's tough to know what kind of offers the Bulls passed on to make this deal. But given that Dunn and LaVine should have relatively little trade value and Chicago had to give up its own first-round pick to move up just seven spots (a move equivalent to the value of the 23rd pick, per my trade value chart), it's hard to imagine there wasn't a better deal available.

If this truly was the best the Bulls could do for Butler right now, then I'm not sure I understand the urgency to move him. In the worst-case scenario, where Butler's trade value eroded further, Chicago could have just held on to Butler and tried to compete in the Eastern Conference during his prime.

I get the argument for moving Butler because the Bulls aren't particularly competitive with him, but not if this is all they could get in return. This package doesn't set Chicago up for a future any brighter than the eighth-seed purgatory the team was already in.





Minnesota Timberwolves: A+

For a year, we've been waiting for Thibodeau's regime to make a win-now move. The Timberwolves resisted last summer, spending modestly in free agency to conserve cap space for this year, and at the trade deadline. Now that this deal has finally come, it's far better than anyone could have imagined or perhaps even dreamed.

My fear was that Minnesota would continue to overvalue Dunn, moving starting point guard Ricky Rubio for pennies on the dollar to clear room for Dunn in the starting lineup. While we don't know if the Timberwolves will keep Rubio, the organization didn't hesitate to move on from Dunn when he fell short of expectations. And if you're as down on Dunn and LaVine as I am, the Timberwolves didn't do much to hurt their long-term future.

It's still a little early for Minnesota to really contend in the Western Conference. Wiggins is 22 and Towns won't turn 22 until November. But given their age, another year of learning Thibodeau's defense and their hope of improving their bad luck in close games, the Timberwolves were likely to improve by simply bringing back the same roster. Now, Minnesota should be considered a heavy favorite to make the playoffs for the first time since reaching the 2004 Western Conference finals.

Amazingly, assuming Nikola Pekovic's salary is medically excluded (the Timberwolves recently waived the center, who didn't play at all last season due to injury) and Minnesota renounces the rights to restricted free agent Shabazz Muhammad, the team could still clear nearly $20 million in cap space to add to this group.

Barring a Rubio trade, the idea of pairing Paul Millsap with Towns in the frontcourt is probably off the table, but the Timberwolves can shop for a lower-cost upgrade at power forward to complement Towns and Gorgui Dieng. (One possibility? Nikola Mirotic, a restricted free agent who doesn't appear to be in the Bulls' plans now that they drafted Arizona forward Lauri Markkanen with the pick they acquired in this trade.)

While this mix isn't perfect -- Rubio, Butler and Wiggins don't offer enough shooting as a perimeter trio -- 45 wins is well within Minnesota's capability next season, and 50 wins is a distinct possibility. The Timberwolves have the next couple of years to try to win enough games to convince Butler to stick around long term. But that worry is for another day. As of tonight, Minnesota is a huge winner.




Trade grades: Is Jordan Bell a steal for the Warriors?



The deal
Bulls get: Cash considerations

Warriors get: Rights to No. 38 pick Jordan Bell






Golden State Warriors: A

This is the second consecutive year the Warriors have bought the 38th pick, and their success last year probably increased the price.

Last year, Golden State got the pick used on Patrick McCaw from the Milwaukee Bucks for $2.4 million, according to The Vertical, signed him for two years at the minimum and watched McCaw play more minutes (1,074) than 26 of the 37 players selected ahead of him. McCaw even played a role during the NBA Finals and figures to take on a larger one next season, especially with Warriors reserves Ian Clark, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston all unrestricted free agents.

This time around, it cost Golden State -- which entered the draft with no picks -- the maximum $3.5 million (per ESPN's Chris Haynes) to buy the pick used on Bell, an undersized shot blocker from Oregon who blossomed into a star as a junior. That's money well spent.

Remember, cash paid to another team doesn't count against the luxury tax, and a dollar saved in salary is worth several multiples for the Warriors, who are sure to pay the tax this season.

I wouldn't love Bell for every team, but Golden State plays so well and offers so much help from the perimeter that I think he'll be able to hold up at center, where his lack of shooting range shouldn't be an issue.





Chicago Bulls: D-

Remarkably, this pick was the only remnant of the protected first-round pick the Sacramento Kings traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers as part of the ill-fated Omri Casspi-J.J. Hickson swap six years ago. (That trade was the final one consummated before the NBA lockout.)

The Cavaliers later sent this pick to the Bulls as part of their trade for Luol Deng, and for three years apiece the two teams patiently waited for the Kings to be good enough to convey the pick as a first-rounder. It never happened, and the pick converted to this second-round pick.

That the Bulls sold the pick -- the highest second-rounder exchanged solely for cash -- seems like a fitting ending to the deal.

 

[Skooby]

Ranking NBA teams from top to bottom in draft picks

Who had the best 2017 NBA draft relative to the picks they held?

We see plenty of attempts to answer that question subjectively. This version is unique because I look at the value teams got from their picks based on my consensus draft projections -- now updated to factor in where players were actually drafted.

So, based on my projections, who were the winners and losers Thursday night? Let's take a look.




Best-rated draft
1. Los Angeles Lakers (plus-1.8 WARP)

It's just one night, but this looks like a great first draft for the new Lakers front office helmed by Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka.


The Lakers got off to a strong start by taking the top prospect in my projections, Lonzo Ball (plus-1.2 wins above replacement player), with the No. 2 overall pick. Ball's projection is so strong he actually had the highest value over expectation of anyone in the draft.

Yet the Lakers didn't stop there. While No. 27 pick Kyle Kuzma (minus-0.7) did not rate well by my model, the Lakers did well to turn the 28th pick into two players who did. At No. 30, the Lakers got what I rated the night's fourth-best value with Josh Hart (plus-0.8), and the 42nd pick yielded Thomas Bryant (plus-0.5).

2. Denver Nuggets (plus-1.4 WARP)

The Nuggets often seem to work off rankings similar to my projections. They topped these rankings in 2014, when they landed Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic. Last year, Juancho Hernangomez rated as the fourth-best value.

This time around, much of that can be explained by Denver nabbing Iowa State point guard Monte Morris (plus-1.1) with the 51st overall pick. Morris ranked third in my stats-only projections, though he never rated nearly that well by the consensus model because he figured to go early in the second round.

In addition, the Nuggets got good value in Syracuse forward Tyler Lydon (plus-0.4) after trading down from No. 13 to No. 24, a deal that also added Utah Jazz forward Trey Lyles. (Denver likes stretch-4s with the initials T.L., apparently.)

3. Brooklyn Nets (plus-0.9 WARP)

Because No. 22 pick Jarrett Allen (minus-0.3) actually rated as a slight overdraft, this is entirely about the 57th overall pick, FC Barcelona forward Aleksandar Vezenkov (plus-1.1).

Vezenkov ranked 24th in my consensus projections, making him the night's third-best value.

4. Houston Rockets (plus-0.8 WARP)

The Rockets kept only one of their two second-round picks, having previously traded their first-rounder to the Lakers in the Lou Williams deal.

With that No. 43 pick, they landed a player rated 12th in my stats-only projections, Zalgiris forward Isaiah Hartenstein. During the draft broadcast, ESPN's international expert, Fran Fraschilla, noted that Hartenstein could have been a lottery pick had he waited until next year to enter.

5. Toronto Raptors (plus-0.7 WARP)

Likewise, the Raptors had only the No. 23 pick. They stopped Indiana forward OG Anunoby's fall, getting a player ranked 10th in my consensus projections. Assuredly, teams were concerned about Anunoby's recovery from a torn ACL that ended his sophomore season prematurely. They also may have been concerned about Anunoby's underdeveloped offensive game.

Still, plenty of prospects with less defensive potential than Anunoby and similar offensive limitations have gone in the lottery. In time, Anunoby should be a quality addition to a Toronto team that has long been on the lookout for wing defenders with strength.

 

[Skooby]

Lowest-rated draft
Note: The Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards are not included in these rankings because they did not make any picks in this draft.

28. Sacramento Kings (minus-2.3 WARP)

The Kings had a fascinating draft. When I tweeted the Lakers were having my favorite draft of anyone, Sacramento was the primary alternative in my mentions. Yet the Kings rate at the bottom of the list.

I can understand the disconnect. I liked their trade down from No. 10 to No. 15 and No. 20 -- a move that added an extra 0.7 WARP to their expected value -- and thought Harry Giles (minus-0.3) was well worth the risk at No. 20 in a way that his projection can't capture.

In addition to Giles, No. 5 pick De'Aaron Fox (minus-0.6) rated as an overdraft, while 15th pick Justin Jackson had the largest negative differential (minus-1.0) for any pick with positive value. Even second-round pick Frank Mason III (minus-0.5) rated as a negative by these projections.

Ultimately, excitement about Sacramento's draft night probably reflects the pick capital it amassed -- the most expected WARP of any team -- more than how well the Kings picked.

27. Boston Celtics (minus-1.1 WARP)

Consider the Celtics the anti-Nuggets. It's clear at times that their rankings are wildly different from my projections, never more so than last season, when they took Jaylen Brown -- whose stats-only projection was for negative WARP -- at No. 3. I wouldn't blame you for trusting Danny Ainge's judgment after that.

Jayson Tatum's minus-0.6 projection wasn't nearly so poor, but he ranked sixth in my consensus projections, several spots below where he was actually taken.

No. 38 pick Semi Ojeleye (minus-0.4) had a negative consensus projection, though I like his 3-and-D skill set where Boston picked him.

26. Oklahoma City Thunder (minus-0.9)

The Thunder surprised everyone by taking Tulsa native Terrance Ferguson at No. 21 after Ferguson spent a year out of high school playing in the Australian NBL.

Ferguson's translated statistics were dismal, but I'm willing to discount them to some extent because of the unusual transition he faced playing overseas. I don't think Ferguson was a huge reach where he went, though I think other wings (Anunoby and Ojeleye) are more certain contributors.

25. Milwaukee Bucks (minus-0.6)

Both of Milwaukee's two draft picks rated worse than expected.

No. 17 pick D.J. Wilson (minus-0.4) showed promise as a pick-and-pop option and pick-and-roll defender at Michigan, but poor defensive rebounding limited his projection. No. 46 pick Sterling Brown rated barely positive because of his low usage rate and age (22).

24. Charlotte Hornets (minus-0.6)

While most mock drafts had him going earlier than the 11th pick, Kentucky guard Malik Monk ranked just 19th in my consensus projections.

The Hornets appeared to get worse value in the second round with Florida State wing Dwayne Bacon, whose minus-1.5 stats-only WARP projection was fourth-worst among the 60 players who were drafted.





Full rankings


2017 NBA draft value
Team # Value Expected value Diff.
L.A. Lakers 4 6.2 4.4 1.8
Denver 3 2.4 1.0 1.4
Brooklyn 2 1.7 0.8 0.8
Houston 1 1.0 0.2 0.8
Toronto 1 1.5 0.8 0.7
Utah 3 2.6 1.9 0.6
Atlanta 3 1.7 1.2 0.5
Indiana 2 1.7 1.2 0.5
Dallas 1 2.1 1.6 0.5
Portland 2 2.5 2.2 0.3
Minnesota 1 1.3 1.1 0.2
Chicago 1 1.9 1.8 0.1
Orlando 2 2.5 2.4 0.1
LA Clippers 2 0.4 0.5 0.0
New Orleans 2 0.5 0.6 -0.1
Phoenix 3 2.7 2.9 -0.1
San Antonio 2 0.4 0.6 -0.1
Detroit 1 1.2 1.4 -0.2
New York 3 1.6 1.9 -0.3
Golden State 1 0.0 0.4 -0.4
Memphis 2 0.2 0.6 -0.4
Miami 1 0.7 1.2 -0.5
Philadelphia 4 4.2 4.8 -0.6
Charlotte 2 1.2 1.7 -0.6
Milwaukee 2 0.6 1.2 -0.6
Oklahoma City 1 0.0 0.9 -0.9
Boston 4 2.0 3.0 -1.1
Sacramento 4 2.3 4.6 -2.3
Note: all players with negative projections zeroed out

 

[MikelArteta]

Can we get that top 30 fa articles

 

[Skooby]

Can we get that top 30 fa articles

Free-agent rankings: Curry, KD, CP3, Hayward, more stars in top 30



The 2017 crop of NBA free agents includes two MVPs (Golden State Warriors teammates Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant) and several other perennial All-Stars. While some of the biggest names on the market might not be on the move when free agency deals are made, beginning on July 1, there are plenty of options for teams shopping with cap space.


Let's rank the top players on the market with the help of multiyear projections that use my SCHOENE projection system to forecast how free agents will perform over the next three seasons. I also factored in ESPN's real plus-minus -- weighted half as much as the box score stats -- to come up with a comprehensive estimate of how many wins above replacement player (WARP) these free agents will provide over that span.

Starting with Curry, here's how this year's top 30 free agents project:





1. Stephen Curry

Golden State Warriors
Guard
Age: 29
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 51.5 | 2016-17 RPM: 7.2 | 2016-17 WARP: 17.2

After spending the first few months adjusting to Durant's arrival and a shooting slump after Durant's injury, Curry played at an MVP level starting in March.

At 29, he's surely past his peak but remains the top free agent on the market. Curry will be eligible to sign a designated veteran contract with the Warriors worth an estimated $201 million over five years.





2. Kevin Durant

Golden State Warriors
Forward
Age: 28
Player Option

Projected 3-Year WARP: 42.6 | 2016-17 RPM: 5.4 | 2016-17 WARP: 14.2

While he was healthy, Durant played well enough to be in the MVP conversation during his first season with the Warriors. His MCL sprain shouldn't be a concern going forward, and at 28 Durant remains in his prime.

Because he has 10 years of experience, Durant will be eligible to sign for the same starting salary as Curry, assuming he declines his player option. But he'll be limited to four years on a new contract instead of five since he's a non-Bird free agent after leaving Oklahoma City for Golden State last summer. (Other teams can offer him a maximum of four years and an estimated $152 million.)

Durant reportedly will be willing to take less than the max to keep the Warriors' core together.





3. Chris Paul

LA Clippers
Guard
Age: 32
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 41.3 | 2016-17 RPM: 7.9 | 2016-17 WARP: 13.3

We're still waiting for Paul, who turned 32 early in May, to show any signs of slowing due to age. He actually posted the league's best RPM last season because the Clippers again performed so much better with him on the court.





4. Kyle Lowry

Toronto Raptors
Guard
Age: 31
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 40.5 | 2016-17 RPM: 5.9 | 2016-17 WARP: 12.9

Only wrist surgery prevented Lowry from a second consecutive season in the NBA's top 10 in WARP, and he ranked 10th in RPM.

Yet Lowry has been unable to translate that efficiency to the postseason, which could make the Raptors wary of offering him a full five-year maximum deal. Such a contract would pay Lowry an estimated $45.7 million in 2021-22, during which he will turn 36.





5. Paul Millsap

Atlanta Hawks
Forward
Age: 32
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 28.1 | 2016-17 RPM: 4.6 | 2016-17 WARP: 7.1

Though his RPM remained in the league's top 15, Millsap's box score production dipped during his age-32 season. As a result, there's a big drop-off from the top four players on the market to him.

My projections regard a full five-year max for Millsap as a riskier proposition than for Lowry or Paul. That might be the impetus behind recent comments from new Hawks GM Travis Schlenk that the team could be outbid for Millsap despite being the only team capable of signing him for five years.





6. Gordon Hayward

Utah Jazz
Forward
Age: 27
Player Option

Projected 3-Year WARP: 27.6 | 2016-17 RPM: 3.1 | 2016-17 WARP: 10.9

Given that the Warriors' free agents seem likely to re-sign in Golden State and the other players ahead of him are in their 30s, Hayward has emerged as the premier free agent realistically available.

Because of Hayward's age, a four-year contract carries far less risk -- and he might prefer a four-year deal with a player option even if he stays in Utah because that will enable him to get back on the market when his maximum salary increases after 10 years of experience -- and he's established himself as an All-Star capable of leading an offense.



7. Blake Griffin

LA Clippers
Forward
Age: 28
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 27.0 | 2016-17 RPM: 3.8 | 2016-17 WARP: 8.6

Despite his relative youth, Griffin can be considered a risky free agent because of his injury history. After Griffin underwent surgery in early May for his most recent malady, a plantar plate injury that knocked him out of the Clippers' playoff loss to the Jazz, the team told reporters it was reasonable to expect his return sometime during the preseason.





8. Otto Porter

Washington Wizards
Forward
Age: 23
Restricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 25.8 | 2016-17 RPM: 3.5| 2016-17 WARP: 9.6

After he and the Wizards were unable to agree on a contract extension last fall, Porter projects as the top restricted free agent on the market.

He's one of the league's more efficient scorers (.628 true shooting percentage), though Porter does struggle to create his own shot when he plays without either Bradley Beal or John Wall alongside him. Nonetheless, expect Washington to match any offer sheet to Porter, who could easily make max money.








9. Danilo Gallinari

Denver Nuggets
Forward
Age: 28
Player Option

Projected 3-Year WARP: 21.1 | 2016-17 RPM: 2.9 | 2016-17 WARP: 4.8

Frankly, this projection probably overrates Gallinari because it doesn't penalize him enough for a history of missing time because of injury. Gallinari hasn't played more than 63 games in a season since tearing his ACL in 2013, and his box score value declined last season.

Still, RPM gave Gallinari plenty of credit for Denver's top-five offense.





10. Jeff Teague

Indiana Pacers
Guard
Age: 28
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 20.2 | 2016-17 RPM: 1.6 | 2016-17 WARP: 9.1

Teague projects atop the ranks of sub-All-Star point guards on the market after a strong first season with the Pacers.

In a slightly smaller role, Teague posted a career-best .574 true shooting percentage thanks largely to his excellent free throw rate. Additionally, RPM didn't rate Teague as the same kind of defensive liability he had appeared to be in the past.

 

[Skooby]

11. Jrue Holiday

New Orleans Pelicans
Guard
Age: 26
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 18.8 | 2016-17 RPM: 1.8 | 2016-17 WARP: 6.2

Because he was a young draft pick even by one-and-done standards, Holiday will hit the unrestricted market in his prime at age 27 (his birthday is June 12).

Holiday showed the ability to stay healthy at the right time, missing just three games (because of turf toe) after returning from a 12-game absence while tending to his wife, Lauren (a former star for the U.S. women's soccer team), when she underwent surgery to remove a benign brain tumor.



12. Nikola Mirotic

Chicago Bulls
Forward
Age: 26
Restricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 16.5 | 2016-17 RPM: 2.3 | 2016-17 WARP: 4.9

Mirotic's value tends to fluctuate with his 3-point percentage, and he finished 2016-17 on a high note, making 41.3 percent of his triples and averaging 14.2 points per game after the All-Star break. (That didn't carry over into the playoffs, as Mirotic shot 28.6 percent in a loss to the Boston Celtics.)

Because of his importance as a shooter, the Bulls have tended to score better with Mirotic on the court.

13. George Hill

Utah Jazz
Guard
Age: 31
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 16.3 | 2016-17 RPM: 3.7 | 2016-17 WARP: 5.4

Hill is the anti-Holiday; he was drafted at age 22 and signed a five-year deal with the Pacers as a restricted free agent, so he's not hitting unrestricted free agency until 31.

Though his size and 3-point shooting mean Hill figures to age relatively well, his age explains why he rates behind Holiday and Teague despite outperforming them while on the court last season.

14. Patty Mills

San Antonio Spurs
Guard
Age: 28
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 13.1 | 2016-17 RPM: 1.6 | 2016-17 WARP: 4.9

Tony Parker's injury gave Mills an unexpected opportunity to showcase his ability to run a team as a starter during the playoffs. While he's limited as playmaker, Mills' 3-point shooting is a considerable upgrade on Parker's, and he has developed into a capable defender.

15. Rudy Gay

Sacramento Kings
Forward
Age: 30
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 13.0 | 2016-17 RPM: 1.8 | 2016-17 WARP: 2.6

Though he's rehabbing an Achilles rupture -- which is not factored into his projection -- Gay told Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated he plans to decline his player option and become a free agent. Before the injury, he was enjoying an atypically positive season in terms of RPM.

16. Serge Ibaka

Toronto Raptors
Forward
Age: 27
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 12.8 | 2016-17 RPM: 0.6 | 2016-17 WARP: 5.5

For his ability to space the floor as a 3-point threat and his shot-blocking prowess, Ibaka has had relatively modest RPM impact. Similar players also haven't aged particularly well, so Ibaka's production is projected to decline throughout the course of his next contract.

17. Mason Plumlee

Denver Nuggets
Center
Age: 27
Restricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 12.5 | 2016-17 RPM: 0.9 | 2016-17 WARP: 6.0

Plumlee was a financial winner of the pre-deadline trade that sent him from the Portland Trail Blazers, who are already deep in the luxury tax for 2017-18, to the Nuggets. After giving up a first-round pick and Jusuf Nurkic to get Plumlee, Denver is likely to match any realistic offer to him as a restricted free agent.

18. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Detroit Pistons
Guard
Age: 24
Restricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 12.4 | 2016-17 RPM: minus-0.6 | 2016-17 WARP: 2.8

Caldwell-Pope suffers from the adjustment to favor WARP over RPM, which better captures his value as a top-tier perimeter defender.

Caldwell-Pope shot a career-best 35 percent from 3-point range last season and could get a max offer sheet from a team in need of a youthful 3-and-D contributor. The Philadelphia 76ers fit that bill.

19. Pau Gasol

San Antonio Spurs
Center
Age: 36
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 12.0 | 2016-17 RPM: 2.4 | 2016-17 WARP: 7.0

At 36, Gasol is unlikely to match the $16.2 million he could have made had he picked up his player option. However, that decision still might work out financially if Gasol can sign a longer-term contract that takes him through his late 30s, as he reportedly plans to do in San Antonio.

The Spurs would benefit from that outcome by reducing Gasol's cap hit this summer, giving them more flexibility in free agency.

20. Nerlens Noel

Dallas Mavericks
Center
Age: 23
Restricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 11.5 | 2016-17 RPM: 1.3 | 2016-17 WARP: 4.2

Noel's projection is artificially limited because I use last season's minutes per game to project future playing time, and he averaged just 20.5 MPG.

Though that didn't increase much in Dallas (he averaged 22 MPG after being traded from Philadelphia), Noel would surely play more as a starting center elsewhere and figures to pick up more minutes from aging Dirk Nowitzki if he remains with the Mavericks.

 

[Skooby]

21. Kelly Olynyk

Boston Celtics
Forward
Age: 26
Restricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 11.3 | 2016-17 RPM: 0.5 | 2016-17 WARP: 2.8

Coming off shoulder surgery, Olynyk had a relatively down regular season. He surely helped his value in free agency with a huge 26-point outing off the bench as the Celtics beat the Wizards in Game 7 of their Eastern Conference semifinals matchup.

22. Patrick Patterson

Toronto Raptors
Forward
Age: 28
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 11.3 | 2016-17 RPM: 2.3 | 2016-17 WARP: 2.8

A longtime RPM favorite because of his floor spacing and nimble feet for a big man, Patterson didn't help his cause heading into free agency by shooting just 27.8 percent during Toronto's playoff run.

23. Tim Hardaway Jr.

Atlanta Hawks
Guard
Age: 25
Restricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 10.8 | 2016-17 RPM: 0.8 | 2016-17 WARP: 3.5

After two disappointing seasons with the New York Knicks, Hardaway has developed into a starter in Atlanta. He's still a relatively weak defender who struggles to negotiate screens, but Hardaway averaged 19.1 points per 36 minutes on above-average efficiency during his age-24 season.

24. Alan Williams

Phoenix Suns
Center
Age: 24
Restricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 10.3 | 2016-17 RPM: 0.6 | 2016-17 WARP: 2.7

Getting regular playing time after the Suns shut down Tyson Chandler, Williams averaged 17.6 points and 14.8 rebounds per 36 minutes in his second NBA season. He's one of the league's best rebounders and a surprisingly effective shot-blocker at 6-foot-8.

Don't be surprised if Williams forces his way into more playing time next season.

25. JJ Redikk

LA Clippers
Guard
Age: 32
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 10.2 | 2016-17 RPM: minus-0.4 | 2016-17 WARP: 3.4

Redikk's market should be robust because virtually every team could use a knockdown shooter who can generate shots through relentless off-ball movement and defend his own position. Players similar to Redikk aged reasonably well into their mid-30s.

26. James Johnson

Miami Heat
Forward
Age: 30
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 9.5 | 2016-17 RPM: 2.4 | 2016-17 WARP: 6.2

Johnson hits free agency coming off a career year he attributed to dramatically improving his conditioning under the tutelage of the Heat's strength and conditioning staff.

Versatile enough to run an offense and defend centers, Johnson should command a sizable raise on the $4 million he got from Miami last summer.

27. Ersan Ilyasova

Atlanta Hawks
Forward
Age: 29
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 9.0 | 2016-17 RPM: 1.7 | 2016-17 WARP: 3.9

Across the three teams he played for last season, Ilyasova supplied effective floor stretching and adequate defense as a power forward. He shot 35.3 percent from 3-point range and boosted his teams' offenses.

28. Manu Ginobili

San Antonio Spurs
Guard
Age: 39
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 8.2 | 2016-17 RPM: 2.8 | 2016-17 WARP: 3.3

During the playoffs, Ginobili indicated he would some time after the season to decide whether to retire or return for 2017-18. He'll turn 40 in July.

Still, his throwback performances in Kawhi Leonard's absence during the playoffs showed that Ginobili remains capable of helping a team in big moments.

29. Andre Roberson

Oklahoma City Thunder
Forward
Age: 25
Restricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 7.8 | 2016-17 RPM: 1.2 | 2016-17 WARP: 0.3

Because of his extreme strengths and weaknesses, Roberson will be a fascinating restricted free agent. He earned a spot on my All-Defensive first team by contributing both lockdown one-on-one D and blocks and steals in a help role.

At the same time, Roberson is one of the least effective offensive perimeter players in the NBA, and his dreadful free throw shooting makes him an intentional foul liability.

It will be interesting to see how the Thunder and other teams value that combination of skills.







30. Milos Teodosic

CSKA Moscow
Guard
Age: 30
Unrestricted

Projected 3-Year WARP: 7.8 | 2016-17 RPM: N/A | 2016-17 WARP: N/A

Arguably the best player not in the NBA, Teodosic reportedly plans to make his way stateside this summer. His WARP projection (based on translated EuroLeague performance) probably flatters him because Teodosic is a weak individual defender, and if he expects to start in the NBA, that might not be realistic.

Nonetheless, Teodosic could be one of the league's better backups with his ability to excel in the pick-and-roll game.

 

[MikelArteta]

thanks breh

 

[Tha_Mac]

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