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Can a breh hook it up please

Top 30 NBA draft prospects by stats, scouting

Ranking top 30 NBA draft prospects by stats and scouting

Throughout the college season, UCLA's Lonzo Ball and Washington's Markelle Fultz competed for the honor of top prospect in the 2017 NBA draft. And the two rank far ahead of the next-best player in my annual draft projections.

So who is No. 1, Ball or Fultz? And how do the other top prospects fare? Let's take a look.


My projections estimate the number of WARP (wins above replacement player) that each player will average during his first five seasons in the NBA, based on two components.

The first takes translated college or international performance and adds in age to get a stats-only projection. In the list below, players are ranked by their consensus projection, which incorporates a second component -- where players rank on Chad Ford's big board -- to capture the scouting consensus about them for improved historical accuracy.






1. Lonzo Ball

UCLA
Point Guard
Big Board: No. 2
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 4.1 WARP



Part of the challenge in evaluating Ball is how unusual his skill set is, not just for an elite prospect, but overall.

Every other collegiate player in Ford's top 100 has at least one player in my projection database with a similarity score of 90 or higher. Ball's best match (Kyrie Irving, of all people) is an 87.6. Ball's best comparison is probably Jason Kidd, who played long before the advanced stats era and is not in my database.





2. Markelle Fultz

Washington
Point Guard
Big Board: No. 1
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 3.3 WARP



While his stats-only projection certainly isn't a negative, Fultz rates at the level of a typical No. 2 pick, even when we account for his spot atop Ford's big board.

Over the 11 drafts for which I have full projections, dating to 2006, No. 2 picks have averaged a 3.3 consensus WARP projection.





3. Jonathan Isaac

Florida State
Forward
Big Board: No. 6
Stats: No. 2

Consensus:2.5 WARP



The big question about Isaac, and the one place where he ranks among the bottom 25 percent of NBA-bound combo forwards, is his ability to create his own shot. He used just 20.3 percent of Florida State's plays as a secondary option behind older prospect Dwayne Bacon.

Get past that, and there's a lot to like about Isaac. He has strong steal and block rates, shot an excellent 59.3 percent on 2-pointers and flashed 3-point range (31-of-89, 34.8 percent).





4. Dennis Smith

North Carolina State
Point Guard
Big Board: No. 8
Stats: No. 6

Consensus: 2.1 WARP



Smith's production was remarkably similar to Fultz's, and his projected player win percentage as a rookie (the per-minute component of WARP, akin to PER) is actually slightly better. Fultz's stats-only WARP projection is still higher because he's six months younger, he has superior size and teams might be concerned about the ACL tear Smith suffered in high school.

Nonetheless, there's a strong case to be made that Smith will slip too far on draft night.





5. Zach Collins

Gonzaga
Center
Big Board: No. 9
Stats: No. 5

Consensus: 2.1 WARP



Despite coming off the bench on a deep, experienced Gonzaga team that lost in the national championship game, Collins rated as the best Zag on a per-minute basis.

He's a high-percentage finisher with good touch at the free throw line. The limited need for traditional bigs hurts Collins, but he's skilled enough that he might be able to play both frontcourt spots in the pros.





6. Josh Jackson

Kansas
Small forward
Big Board: No. 3
Stats: No. 34

Consensus: 1.9 WARP



Jackson has good steal and block rates and is an excellent playmaker for a wing. So why doesn't he project better? Inefficiency is a major culprit.

He's projected for a .494 true shooting percentage as a rookie (league average last season was .552), and those assists come with extra turnovers for a wing. Additionally, Jackson is older than many sophomores, let alone other freshman prospects.





7. OG Anunoby

Indiana
Forward
Big Board: No. 13
Stats: No. 7

Consensus:1.8 WARP



A team willing to draft Anunoby despite the torn ACL that prematurely ended his career at Indiana might get a steal.

Anunoby is the only prospect in this year's draft projected for better than 2.0 steals per 100 plays and 2.0 blocks per 100 opponent 2-point attempts. Historically, several wings who met that criteria have outperformed their draft slot. The group features Robert Covington, Danny Granger, Josh Howard and Andre Roberson, but also includes nonentities Renaldo Balkman, Branden Dawson and Chris Singleton.





8. Jayson Tatum

Duke
Small forward
Big Board: No. 4
Stats: No. 28

Consensus: 1.8 WARP



Tatum is statistically the most generic prospect possible.

He doesn't project in the top or bottom 25 percent of NBA-bound small forwards in any of the 10 categories I use to determine strengths and weaknesses, making him the only college prospect in this year's draft for whom that is true.





9. Lauri Markkanen

Arizona
Power forward
Big Board: No. 10
Stats: No. 13

Consensus: 1.7 WARP



Markkanen is Tatum's opposite in terms of strengths and weaknesses.

He's the only player in my top 20 with at least four statistical weaknesses (rebound, assist, steal and block percentages) yet still has a solid projection because his three strengths (shooting, turnover rate and foul rate) are so good.





10. De'Aaron Fox

Kentucky
Point guard
Big Board: No. 5
Stats: No. 38

Consensus: 1.5 WARP



Because of the regression factor, Fox's poor 3-point shooting isn't a big factor in his low statistical projection, per se. (He's projected to make 30.4 percent of his 3s as a rookie.).

Rather, it's Fox's limited 3-point attempts that are more of an issue; he's projected to take 2-pointers on 63.4 percent of the plays he finishes with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover. Among perimeter players in Ford's top 100, only Kentucky teammate Isaiah Briscoe has a higher 2-point attempt rate, and it's hard to score efficiently that way.

 

[Skooby]

11. John Collins

Wake Forest
Power forward
Big Board: No. 16
Stats: No. 12

Consensus: 1.5 WARP



A high-percentage post scorer who projects as one of the most efficient players in the draft, Collins has shown enough accuracy from the free throw line (projected 72 percent as a rookie) to suggest he can be a midrange threat in the pros.

He'll probably need to add that shot, because he's unlikely to protect the rim well enough to primarily play center.





12. Tony Bradley

North Carolina
Center
Big Board: No. 22
Stats: No. 9

Consensus: 1.5 WARP



Similar to Collins, Bradley played well enough in limited minutes to project as a top prospect. (My projections don't specifically consider minutes played, though low-minutes players will have their stats regressed more to positional averages.)

Bradley projects as the best offensive rebounder in the draft and the best since Kenneth Faried was drafted in 2011.





13. Frank Ntilikina

Strasbourg
Point guard
Big Board: No. 11
Stats: No. 23

Consensus: 1.5 WARP



Playing limited minutes in the French Pro A league, Ntilikina hasn't performed particularly well this season. He projects this high largely because of how his performance is regressed to the mean, as well as his youth:

UCLA's Ike Anigbogu is the only younger player in Ford's top 30.





14. Malik Monk

Kentucky
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 7
Stats: No. 32

Consensus: 1.4 WARP



Naturally, despite his 3-point shooting being regressed to the mean, Monk projects as a better offensive player than his former backcourt-mate Fox. That's particularly true if you believe Monk can handle combo-guard duties, improving his assist rate.

However, Monk rates in the bottom 25 percent of shooting guards in terms of rebounding and steal rate, and that weak defense hampers his projection.





15. Monte Morris

Iowa State
Point guard
Big Board: No. 36
Stats: No. 3

Consensus: 1.4 WARP



The highest-rated player ranked outside Ford's top 30, Morris projects with a winning percentage (.478) near league average (.500, naturally) thanks to his sure-handed play.

His projected turnover rate (10.6 percent of his plays) is third-lowest among players in my database listed as point guards, tied with Malcolm Brogdon of the Milwaukee Bucks.





16. Josh Hart

Villanova
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 37
Stats: No. 8

Consensus: 1.2 WARP



One of the most productive players in college basketball as a senior, Hart has no statistical weaknesses, and he has strengths in terms of 2-point percentage and shooting.

Hart projects to a 3-and-D role in the NBA, and indeed his second-best comp is Danny Green. (Of course, his best comp is MarShon Brooks. The draft is hard.)





17. Ike Anigbogu

UCLA
Center
Big Board: No. 19
Stats: No. 22

Consensus: 1.1 WARP



The youngest college prospect in the draft, Anigbogu won't turn 19 until just before opening night of the 2017-18 season.

Playing off the bench at UCLA, he flashed high-percentage finishing, strong offensive rebounding and capable shot blocking.





18. Donovan Mitchell

Louisville
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 15
Stats: No. 25

Consensus: 1.1 WARP



A couple of factors work against Mitchell's statistical projection.

He was better as a sophomore than as a freshman, and my projections weight earlier years more heavily because they've historically been a better predictor of NBA performance. Additionally, I have Mitchell projected as a pure shooting guard. If he's able to handle minutes at point guard, his stats-only projection would jump into the top 20.





19. Justin Patton

Creighton
Center
Big Board: No. 21
Stats: No. 21

Consensus: 1.1 WARP



After bursting on the scene as a redshirt freshman, Patton ranked in the top 10 at midseason but saw his performance fade as Creighton moved into conference play and lost starting point guard Maurice Watson to a torn ACL.

Patton was shooting 72.7 percent when Watson was injured and regressed to 61.5 percent the remainder of the season.





20. Luke Kennard

Duke
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 14
Stats: No. 31

Consensus: 1.1 WARP



One of the better shooters in the draft, Kennard was largely a nonfactor defensively in terms of box-score statistics.

His steal rate (1.2 per 100 plays) in particular is poor for a shooting guard, which has often been an indicator of NBA disappointment.

 

[Skooby]

21. Tyler Lydon

Syracuse
Power forward
Big Board: No. 33
Stats: No. 17

Consensus: 1.0 WARP



A year ago, Lydon would have rated somewhat higher on the strength of his fine freshman campaign. He slipped slightly as a sophomore but still brings an intriguing mix of floor spacing and rim protection.

No player in my database had ever been projected to block more than 2.5 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts and shoot 3s on at least 30 percent of the plays he uses. Both Lydon and Vanderbilt's Luke Kornet, a possible second-round pick, qualify this year.





22. Alec Peters

Valparaiso
Forward
Big Board: No. 39
Stats: No. 16

Consensus: 1.0 WARP



If Peters can find a position to defend in the NBA -- he played primarily in the paint against Horizon League opponents but might not be strong enough on the glass to do so against pro competition -- he should be a dangerous offensive threat.

By virtue of a large sample and his accuracy, Peters' projected 37.9 percent shooting from 3-point range next season is second to SMU's Sterling Brown (38.8 percent) among players in Ford's top 100.





23. TJ Leaf

UCLA
Power forward
Big Board: No. 20
Stats: No. 26

Consensus: 0.9 WARP



Leaf's projection suffers because his 64.4 percent 2-point shooting gets regressed heavily to the mean. That might be fair, given Leaf had ideal floor spacing around him and Ball setting him up.

Leaf will probably need to be an efficient scorer to succeed in the NBA, because he's a relatively weak defender and rebounder for a 4.





24. Harry Giles

Duke
Power forward
Big Board: No. 12
Stats: No. 42

Consensus: 0.9 WARP



Perhaps the most challenging player to evaluate in this year's draft, Giles looks like a marginal prospect based on his performance in his one season at Duke.

However, he was coming back from a second ACL tear, and my research has suggested that players do struggle initially after returning from ACL injuries before settling in. So Giles' statistics might undersell his NBA potential.





25. Jarrett Allen

Texas
Center
Big Board: No. 18
Stats: No. 35

Consensus: 0.9 WARP



Allen has ideal physical tools to be a rim runner and rim protector in the NBA, but he wasn't particularly productive during his lone season at Texas.

His block rate ranked in the bottom quarter of NBA-bound centers and his defensive rebounding was also below average.





26. Jeremy Morgan

Northern Iowa
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 83
Stats: No. 10

Consensus: 0.9 WARP



The single biggest sleeper in my projections, Morgan just recently cracked Ford's top 100. He stands out primarily for his strong rates of steals (2.4 per 100 team plays) and blocks (1.6 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts).

Added together, that's the fifth-highest projection for any guard in my database, trailing Gary Payton II, Marcus Smart, Briante Weber and Delon Wright.





27. Aleksandar Vezenkov

FC Barcelona
Small forward
Big Board: No. 87
Stats: No. 11

Consensus: 0.8 WARP



Automatically eligible for the draft because he'll turn 22 later this year, Vezenkov's star has faded as a prospect even though he's a productive player for a quality team.

Vezenkov has shot an incredible 69.4 percent on 2-point attempts in ACB play and projects as a capable role player in the Mindaugas Kuzminskas mold, with room to improve from there.





28. Derrick Walton Jr.

Michigan
Point guard
Big Board: No. 68
Stats: No. 14

Consensus: 0.7 WARP



A late bloomer, Walton developed dramatically as an upperclassman and was one of the nation's best point guards as a senior. He projects as a 3-point threat off the dribble -- making 27 of 68 such attempts at Michigan for 40.9 percent accuracy, per Synergy Sports tracking -- something that's crucial for modern point guards.

At the same time, Walton will need to make 3s to score efficiently, because he's projected to shoot a dismal 37.8 percent inside the arc.





29. Anzejs Pasecniks

Gran Canaria
Center
Big Board: No. 26
Stats: No. 33

Consensus: 0.7 WARP



A high-percentage finisher, Latvian native Pasecniks made 66.2 percent of his 2-point attempts against ACB competition as a 21-year-old.

Middling block and defensive rebound rates, however, might limit Pasceniks to a reserve role in the NBA.





30. Thomas Bryant

Indiana
Center
Big Board: No. 50
Stats: No. 18

Consensus: 0.7 WARP



Anticipating the possibility of needing to play on the perimeter as a pro, Bryant made 23 3-pointers at a 38.3 percent clip as a sophomore. At the same time, his 2-point accuracy slipped from an excellent 70.7 percent as a freshman to 55.6 percent.

Because Bryant is only an average shot-blocker and a poor defensive rebounder, he has to score efficiently to have value in the NBA.

 

[Skooby]

Full 2017 NBA draft rankings
Note: Due to insufficient statistical data, I do not have projections for three top-100 prospects: Nedim Buza (No. 98), Terrance Ferguson (No. 17) and Isaiah Hartenstein (No. 29).

Pelton's draft projections
Player Big Board Stats Rank Consensus
1. Lonzo Ball 2 3.6 1 4.1
2. Markelle Fultz 1 2.0 4 3.3
3. Jonathan Isaac 6 2.2 2 2.5
4. Dennis Smith Jr. 8 1.9 6 2.1
5. Zach Collins 9 1.9 5 2.1
6. Josh Jackson 3 0.7 34 1.9
7. OG Anunoby 13 1.8 7 1.8
8. Jayson Tatum 4 0.8 28 1.8
9. Lauri Markkanen 10 1.5 13 1.7
10. De'Aaron Fox 5 0.6 38 1.5
11. John Collins 16 1.5 12 1.5
12. Tony Bradley 22 1.7 9 1.5
13. Frank Ntilikina 11 1.1 23 1.4
14. Malik Monk 7 0.7 32 1.4
15. Monté Morris 36 2.0 3 1.4
16. Josh Hart 37 1.7 8 1.2
17. Ike Anigbogu 19 1.1 22 1.1
18. Donovan Mitchell 15 0.9 25 1.1
19. Justin Patton 21 1.1 21 1.1
20. Luke Kennard 14 0.8 31 1.1
Player Big Board Stats Rank Consensus
21. Tyler Lydon 33 1.3 17 1.0
22. Alec Peters 39 1.4 16 1.0
23. TJ Leaf 20 0.9 26 0.9
24. Harry Giles 12 0.4 42 0.9
25. Jarrett Allen 18 0.7 35 0.9
26. Jeremy Morgan 83 1.6 10 0.9
27. Aleksandar Vezenkov 87 1.6 11 0.8
28. Derrick Walton Jr. 68 1.4 14 0.7
29. Jonathan Jeanne 94 1.4 15 0.7
30. Anzejs Pasecniks 26 0.7 33 0.7
31. Thomas Bryant 50 1.2 18 0.7
32. Jawun Evans 30 0.7 37 0.6
33. Frank Jackson 27 0.6 39 0.6
34. Justin Robinson NR 1.2 19 0.6
35. Derek Willis NR 1.2 20 0.6
36. Chris Boucher 56 1.0 24 0.5
37. Edrice Adebayo 23 0.2 50 0.4
38. Ivan Rabb 24 0.3 48 0.4
39. Luke Kornet 77 0.9 27 0.3
40. D.J. Wilson 28 0.3 47 0.3
Player Big Board Stats Rank Consensus
41. Caleb Swanigan 32 0.3 45 0.3
42. James Blackmon Jr. 82 0.8 29 0.3
43. Alpha Kaba 61 0.8 30 0.3
44. Derrick White 41 0.4 43 0.2
45. Kennedy Meeks 63 0.7 36 0.2
46. Cameron Oliver 48 0.4 41 0.2
47. Mathias Lessort 49 0.4 40 0.2
48. Tyler Dorsey 44 0.2 52 0.1
49. Troy Caupain NR 0.4 44 0.0
50. Sterling Brown 45 0.1 58 0.0
51. Jordan Bell 31 -0.2 69 0.0
52. Antonio Campbell NR 0.3 46 -0.1
53. Davon Reed 57 0.2 53 -0.1
54. Isaac Humphries 79 0.2 49 -0.1
55. Malcolm Hill 76 0.2 51 -0.1
56. Semi Ojeleye 34 -0.2 71 -0.1
57. Justin A. Jackson 25 -0.5 78 -0.1
58. Melo Trimble 70 0.2 54 -0.1
59. Alberto Abalde NR 0.1 55 -0.2
60. Jonah Bolden 40 -0.2 68 -0.2
Player Big Board Stats Rank Consensus
61. Vlatko Cancar NR 0.1 56 -0.2
62. Eric Mika 60 0.1 57 -0.2
63. Edmond Sumner 38 -0.3 73 -0.2
64. Damyean Dotson 55 0.0 61 -0.2
65. Nigel Hayes 64 0.0 59 -0.2
66. Marcus Keene 78 0.0 60 -0.3
67. Kris Jenkins 81 0.0 62 -0.3
68. London Perrantes NR 0.0 63 -0.3
69. V.J. Beachem 66 -0.1 64 -0.3
70. T.J. Cline NR -0.1 65 -0.3
71. Youssoupha Fall 90 -0.1 66 -0.3
72. Charles Cooke NR -0.2 67 -0.4
73. Dillon Brooks 43 -0.5 77 -0.4
74. Paris Bass 65 -0.2 70 -0.4
75. Moses Kingsley 89 -0.2 72 -0.4
76. Frank Mason III 42 -0.6 83 -0.4
77. Austin Nichols 92 -0.3 74 -0.5
78. Marko Guduric NR -0.4 75 -0.5
79. Kobi Simmons 52 -0.5 82 -0.5
80. Sindarius Thornwell 59 -0.5 80 -0.6
Player Big Board Stats Rank Consensus
81. Kenan Sipahi 88 -0.5 76 -0.6
82. Ben Moore 100 -0.5 79 -0.6
83. Michael Young NR -0.5 81 -0.6
84. Kyle Kuzma 47 -0.7 89 -0.6
85. JaJuan Johnson NR -0.6 84 -0.7
86. Andrew White III 71 -0.6 85 -0.7
87. Antonio Blakeney 80 -0.6 86 -0.7
88. Jacob Wiley NR -0.7 87 -0.7
89. Nigel Williams-Goss 74 -0.7 88 -0.7
90. Johnathan Motley 35 -1.2 99 -0.8
91. Devin Robinson 46 -1.0 94 -0.8
92. Naz Mitrou-Long NR -0.8 90 -0.8
93. Keith Frazier NR -0.8 91 -0.8
94. Rolands Smits NR -0.9 92 -0.9
95. Amida Brimah NR -0.9 93 -0.9
96. Ognjen Jaramaz NR -1.0 95 -1.0
97. Zak Irvin 85 -1.1 96 -1.0
98. Ilimane Diop NR -1.1 97 -1.0
99. Luke Fischer NR -1.1 98 -1.0
100. PJ Dozier 53 -1.3 102 -1.1
Player Big Board Stats Rank Consensus
101. Jaron Blossomgame 62 -1.2 100 -1.1
102. Sidy Djitte NR -1.3 101 -1.1
103. Dwayne Bacon 51 -1.5 110 -1.2
104. L.J. Peak 84 -1.4 103 -1.2
105. Trevor Thompson NR -1.4 104 -1.2
106. James Birsen NR -1.4 105 -1.2
107. Peter Jok 69 -1.4 106 -1.2
108. Deonte Burton NR -1.4 107 -1.2
109. Amile Jefferson 72 -1.4 108 -1.2
110. Siyani Chambers NR -1.5 109 -1.3
111. Jamel Artis 75 -1.5 111 -1.3
112. Jabari Bird 91 -1.5 112 -1.3
113. Xavier Rathan-Mayes NR -1.6 113 -1.4
114. Przemek Karnowski NR -1.7 114 -1.4
115. Isaiah Briscoe 67 -1.7 115 -1.4
116. Kadeem Allen 73 -1.8 116 -1.5
117. T.J. Williams NR -1.8 117 -1.5
118. Antonius Cleveland 97 -1.9 118 -1.6
119. Isaac Hamilton NR -1.9 119 -1.6
120. Robert Hubbs III 96 -2.0 120 -1.6
Player Big Board Stats Rank Consensus
121. Chance Comanche NR -2.0 121 -1.6
122. Wesley Iwundu 54 -2.1 122 -1.7
123. Isaiah Hicks 58 -2.2 125 -1.7
124. Katin Reinhardt NR -2.2 123 -1.8
125. Kuran Iverson NR -2.2 124 -1.8
126. Landen Lucas NR -2.2 126 -1.8
127. Rodney Purvis NR -2.4 127 -1.9
128. Eron Harris NR -2.4 128 -1.9
129. Mangok Mathiang NR -2.4 129 -1.9

 

[Frump]

 

[Skooby]

Mock Draft 7.0: Potential trades, most likely picks for both rounds



With the 2017 NBA draft on Thursday, here's our latest intel based on conversations with NBA scouts and general managers, including potential trades and most likely picks for the full first and second rounds.






1. Philadelphia 76ers (via Celtics)

Markelle Fultz
Washington
Freshman
Guard

The Sixers have coveted Fultz for much of the past year and were disappointed when they fell to No. 3 on the night of the draft lottery. Now, a reported trade with Boston that is expected to take place this week would give them the No. 1 pick and a chance to draft Fultz.

They need a guard who can run the point, play off the ball, score, stretch the floor and defend both guard spots. Fultz checks all of those boxes in a way no one else in the draft can.

The cost to acquire the No. 1 pick was high (the No. 3 pick plus the Lakers' 2018 first-rounder if it falls between Nos. 2-5 or the Kings' unprotected 2019 first-rounder), but I think it will be worth it for the Sixers.

A big three of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Fultz could dominate the league in a few years if they can all stay healthy.





2. Los Angeles Lakers

Lonzo Ball
UCLA
Freshman
Guard

The Lakers brought in Fultz on Thursday, Ball for a second time on Friday and then Jayson Tatum over the weekend. The Lakers also worked out Josh Jackson twice as well as De'Aaron Fox.

With Fultz likely going No. 1 to Philly, the field narrows down to Ball, Jackson, Tatum and Fox here. Sources in L.A. say that the Lakers have been moving closer and closer to selecting Ball in the past 48 hours. More than ever, he's the heavy favorite to get his wish to play for his hometown team.

However, that could change if L.A. ends up getting involved in a Paul George trade. George reportedly told the Indiana Pacers that he's leaving in 2018 and wants to play for the Lakers.

The Pacers are talking to multiple teams about a George deal, but if the Lakers offer the No. 2 pick, the Pacers would have serious interest.

3. Boston Celtics (via 76ers)

Josh Jackson
Kansas
Freshman
Forward

Celtics president Danny Ainge wanted to maximize the return for the No. 1 pick. The chance to pick up another valuable future pick by moving down just two spots seemed like a bargain for Boston.

The Celtics are high on Josh Jackson, but they also really like Ball and Tatum. Of the three, Tatum is the only one they've gotten in for a workout so far. Perhaps that will make a difference and tip the scales his way.

Another realistic scenario? The Celtics use No. 3 and the newly acquired Lakers/Kings pick to make another run at either Jimmy Butler or George.

I mocked out one potential trade scenario for the Bulls and Celtics on Sunday here.







4. Phoenix Suns

Jayson Tatum
Duke
Freshman
Forward

The Suns have been trying to trade up and have had conversations with both the Lakers and Celtics. Who are they after? Sources point to Ball as the target.

The Suns also covet Jackson, but he's off the board here.

If neither player is available it will come down to Tatum, Fox and Jonathan Isaac. Fox canceled a workout with the Suns last week and doesn't have plans to complete one before the draft, which has made drafting him more complicated. Isaac has the most upside, but the Suns drafted two players last year with long developmental timelines and aren't sure they're ready to do that with Isaac as well.

That has the Suns leaning toward Tatum right now. Tatum is perhaps the most NBA-ready player in the draft. He's a potential 20-points-per-night scorer. He doesn't exactly fit with TJ Warren, but Warren will have a robust trade market if the Suns decide to move him.







5. Sacramento Kings (via 76ers)

De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

The Kings have also explored moving up to No. 2 or No. 3 in the draft. Their target has been Fox.

Not only is Fox the fastest player in the draft and a major fit at point guard, but he has shown genuine interest in playing for and leading the Kings. If Fox is gone, Tatum seems like the next most likely pick for the Kings.





6. Orlando Magic

Jonathan Isaac
Florida State
Freshman
Forward

The Magic appear to be leaning toward Isaac. Both team president Jeff Weltman and GM John Hammond have a long track record of gambling on long, athletic players with upside like Isaac. Some scouts believe that after Fultz and Ball are off the board, he has the most upside of anyone in the draft.

The team has also shown strong interest in Tatum and several players a little lower in the draft, including Luke Kennard (who works out for the Magic on Tuesday) and Donovan Mitchell.





7. Minnesota Timberwolves

Lauri Markkanen
Arizona
Freshman
Forward

We've been back and forth between Isaac and Markkanen here for several mock drafts.

Both are excellent fits for the Wolves, who are looking for a stretch-4. Isaac would offer more upside. Markkanen is more ready now and a more proven shooter.

With Isaac off the board, this looks like Markkanen's spot.





8. New York Knicks

Frank Ntilikina
France
Age: 18
Guard

If the draft plays out this way, that probably leaves the Knicks choosing between Ntilikina, Dennis Smith and Malik Monk.

The Knicks appear to like all three but have been doing a lot of due diligence of late on Ntilikina, who is playing the best basketball of his career right now in the French playoffs. The team wants a young point guard to pair with Kristaps Porzingis and feels as though he may be the best fit for the triangle offense.

And don't count out Kennard here. He could end up leapfrogging Smith and Monk in this process. His workouts have been that impressive.





9. Dallas Mavericks

Dennis Smith
NC State
Freshman
Guard

The Mavs need a young point guard to build around and have been high on Ntilikina all year. There's concern that he'll be off the board before they pick. Don't be surprised if they try to move up to No. 6 or No. 7 to secure him.

If he's gone, they may have to "settle" for Smith -- a very athletic guard who reminds scouts of a young Steve Francis. Other players like Luke Kennard and Donovan Mitchell are also in consideration here.





10. Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)

Zach Collins
Gonzaga
Freshman
Center

The Kings' other major need is at small forward. With Rudy Gay planning to opt out, they have a major hole there. The problem is that there might not be any available 3s worth taking this high.

Collins is an athletic rim protector who can also stretch the floor. They have a several young big men with Skal Labissiere, Willie Cauley-Stein and Georgios Papagiannis already on the roster. But Collins' talent is worth a selection here.

The other two dark horses for this spot in Sacramento are Wake Forest's John Collins and Duke's Harry Giles.

Collins goes in for a second workout in Sacramento on Monday. A lot of scouts are split between those three bigs.

 

[Skooby]

11. Charlotte Hornets

Malik Monk
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

This would be a bit of a slide for Monk. He's one of the two or three best shooters in the draft and an elite athlete, but his lack of size and length for his position (at 6-foot-3) have clearly scared away some teams.

While he's in the mix with the Wolves and Knicks, if neither team takes him, this will be his likely landing spot. Grabbing Monk here would be a steal for the Hornets, who could use his shooting to back up both Nicolas Batum and Kemba Walker. Kennard and Donovan Mitchell are both strongly in play here as well.





12. Detroit Pistons

Luke Kennard
Duke
Sophomore
Guard

Kennard is getting interest as high as No. 8 to the Knicks, No. 10 to the Kings and No. 11 to the Hornets. The Lakers have also been looking at possibly picking up another pick or trading down to get him.

But I think this would be his floor. The Pistons need shooting and Kennard may be the best shooter in the draft.





13. Denver Nuggets

OG Anunoby
Indiana
Sophomore
Forward

Anunoby has tremendous upside as an elite 3-and-D type prospect. He's being considered as high as No. 10 to the Kings.

There has been a lot of buzz about Anunoby to the Nuggets. He fits there and they don't need him to rush back from injury. That's good news, because some teams believe Anunoby's rehab could keep him off the court the entire season.





14. Miami Heat

Donovan Mitchell
Louisville
Sophomore
Guard

The Heat will have a tough time passing on Mitchell if the Hornets and Pistons do. His elite athleticism, length and game give him a passing resemblance to a young Dwyane Wade. I don't think he has that same ceiling, but his talent is definitely worth taking a risk on here.

The Heat are also eyeing several players to play in the frontcourt with Hassan Whiteside. Zach Collins, John Collins and Harry Giles, if available, are the three strongest contenders at this point.







15. Portland Trail Blazers

Harry Giles
Duke
Freshman
Forward

Giles has been impressive in workouts and the teams that have seen his physicals seem to be satisfied with his progress from his latest knee surgery.

He'll be considered a gamble given his injury history, but at this point in the draft his talent would outweigh the risk, especially for a team like the Blazers, with three first-round picks.





16. Chicago Bulls

John Collins
Wake Forest
Sophomore
Forward

Collins has also been increasingly impressive in workouts and now appears to be in the Nos. 10-16 range. He'll get an especially serious look in Miami after a strong workout there.

I doubt he falls past the Bulls. Taj Gibson is gone and Collins has more upside than Bobby Portis.





17. Milwaukee Bucks

Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
Freshman
Center

Anigbogu may be one of the rawest prospects on the board, but he's also the youngest. His defensive potential as a rebounder and rim protector are clear. Teams just have to take a wait-and-see attitude on the offensive end.

Jarrett Allen, Terrance Ferguson and Justin Jackson could be options for Milwaukee.





18. Indiana Pacers

TJ Leaf
UCLA
Freshman
Forward

Leaf's lack of ideal size and length (6-foot-10, 222 pounds and a 6-11 wingspan) are outweighed by his superior offensive skills. He can score the basketball from anywhere on the floor and could ultimately make a nice complement to Myles Turner in the frontcourt.

Ferguson and Bam Adebayo are other possibilities.





19. Atlanta Hawks

Justin Patton
Creighton
Freshman
Center

The Hawks can't count on Paul Millsap returning. Dwight Howard's contract might be tough to move, but his role as an anchor to the Hawks' defense will continue to decline.

Patton is not ready to contribute yet. He's one of the more raw prospects in the draft. But he's got enormous potential and teams like the Hawks think he has major upside.







20. Portland Trail Blazers (via Grizzlies)

Edrice Adebayo
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward

This is the second first-rounder for the Blazers and Portland continues to shop it around.

Adebayo is a polarizing prospect, but his physical abilities alone make him intriguing to teams that need mobile big men who can defend both the paint and the perimeter.

 

[Skooby]

21. Oklahoma City Thunder

Justin Jackson
North Carolina
Junior
Forward

Jackson has been stuck at No. 21 in our mock draft for several editions and it doesn't look like it's changing.

He fits a need for the Thunder with his shooting and versatility. His lack of elite athleticism is the weakness that keeps him out of the lottery. Jonah Bolden is another potential sleeper for the Thunder.





22. Brooklyn Nets (via Wizards)

Anzejs Pasecniks
Latvia
Age: 21
Center

Pasecniks has been a hot name the past few weeks. He has worked out for the Hawks, Thunder, Raptors, Nets and Spurs.

There aren't a lot of international players in this draft, let alone ones who can play facing the basket.

Unlike fellow countryman Kristaps Porzingis, Pasecniks is not a good rebounder or defender, but his offensive game bears a passing resemblance.





23. Toronto Raptors (via Clippers)

Jonah Bolden
Australia
Age: 21
Forward

Bolden left UCLA after his freshman season and had a successful stint in Serbia.

He's an athletic, versatile forward who can shoot and pass the ball. He has become quite the sleeper among NBA scouts and Raptors GM Masai Ujiri has a penchant for finding and drafting similar players.





24. Utah Jazz

Tony Bradley
North Carolina
Freshman
Center

Bradley has impressed in workouts. He has gotten in better shape, shown some surprising range from the perimeter and remains one of the best rebounders in the draft.

Teams worry about his heavy legs, but with better conditioning his athleticism could improve. He could be a strong backup for Rudy Gobert down the road.





25. Orlando Magic (via Raptors)

Jarrett Allen
Texas
Freshman
Center



Allen is a fluid athlete who can run the floor, block shots and rebound. He lacks strength right now, but his talent and upside are worth a shot this late in the draft.

This feels like the bottom end of his draft range.





26. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavaliers)




Isaiah Hartenstein
Germany
Age: 18
Forward

This is the third pick for the Blazers, and it makes sense that they'd invest in a draft-and-stash prospect with at least one of them.

Hartenstein is an athletic big man who lacks refinement in his game. The Blazers can keep him overseas for another year or two.







27. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)

Terrance Ferguson
Australia
Age: 19
Guard

Ferguson's draft stock is all over the place. Some teams have him in the teens, others in the second round. It has been hard to find a home for him.

He's a good shooter and a great athlete, but the rest of his game needs a lot of development. Still, he's great value for the Nets at No. 27.





28. L.A. Lakers (via Rockets)

D.J. Wilson
Michigan
Junior
Forward

The Lakers are said to be high on this high-flying stretch-4.

When Wilson isn't boarding above the rim or launching 3-pointers, there isn't a lot to his game, but those two attributes can get a player into the first round.





29. San Antonio Spurs

Josh Hart
Villanova
Senior
Guard

There's very little that's sexy about Hart's game.

But he does everything well enough and could be a long-term backup for Danny Green.





30. Utah Jazz (via Warriors)

Tyler Lydon
Syracuse
Sophomore
Forward

Lydon would be an upside pick for Utah.

He's a terrific shooter and rim protector. He just needs to add strength and consistency

 

[Skooby]

Round 2
31. Atlanta Hawks (via Nets)

Frank Jackson, Duke, Fr., Guard

32. Phoenix Suns

Derrick White, Colorado, Jr., Guard

33. Orlando Magic (via Lakers)

Jawun Evans, Oklahoma State, So., Point guard

34. Sacramento Kings (via Sixers)

Alec Peters, Valparaiso, Sr., Forward

35. Orlando Magic

Mathias Lessort, France, Age: 21, Power forward

36. Philadelphia 76ers (via Knicks)

Tyler Dorsey, Oregon, So., Guard

37. Boston Celtics (via Wolves)

Ivan Rabb, Cal, So., Power forward

38. Chicago Bulls (via Kings)

Jordan Bell, Oregon, Jr., Power forward

39. Philadelphia 76ers (via Mavericks)

Edmond Sumner, Xavier, So., Point guard

40. New Orleans Pelicans

Semi Ojeleye, SMU, Jr., Forward

41. Charlotte Hornets

Monte Morris, Iowa State, Sr., Point guard

42. Utah Jazz (via Pistons)

Aleksandar Vezenkov, Cyprus, Age: 21, Forward

43. Houston Rockets (via Nuggets)

Caleb Swanigan, Purdue, So., Power forward

44. New York Knicks (via Bulls)

Sterling Brown, SMU, Sr., Guard

45. Houston Rockets (via Blazers)

Frank Mason, Kansas, Sr., Point guard

46. Philadelphia 76ers (via Heat

Alpha Kaba, France, Age: 21, Forward

47. Indiana Pacers

Johnathan Motley, Baylor, Jr., Power forward

48. Milwaukee Bucks

Dillon Brooks, Oregon, Jr., Small forward

49. Denver Nuggets (via Grizzlies)

Jonathan Jeanne, France, Age: 20, Center

50. Philadelphia 76ers (via Hawks)

Devin Robinson, Florida, Jr., Small forward

51. Denver Nuggets (via Thunder)

Simon Birgander, Sweden, Age: 19, Small forward

52. Washington Wizards

Kyle Kuzma, Utah, Jr., Power forward

53. Boston Celtics (via Cavaliers)

Jeremy Morgan, Northern Iowa, Sr., Shooting guard

54. Phoenix Suns (via Raptors)

Kenan Sipahi, Turkey, Age: 22, Point guard

55. Utah Jazz

Nedim Buza, Bosnia, Age: 22, Small forward

56. Boston Celtics (via Clippers)

James Birsen, Turkey, Age: 22, Small forward

57. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)

Kobi Simmons, Arizona, Fr., Point guard

58. New York Knicks (via Rockets)

Cameron Oliver, Nevada. So., Power forward

59. San Antonio Spurs

Thomas Bryant, Indiana, So., Center

60. Atlanta Hawks (via Warriors)

Davon Reed, Miami, Sr., Shooting guard

 

[Jplaya2023]

Best NFL defenses of past 30 years: Steelers, Ravens prove elite

 

[Skooby]

Best NFL defenses of past 30 years: Steelers, Ravens prove elite

Tuesday, June 20, 2017
Football Outsiders' 30 best NFL defenses of the past 30 years

On Monday, we introduced our special Football Outsiders "30 for 30," a look at the 30 best offenses of the past 30 years now that we have our advanced play-by-play metrics going all the way back to 1987. In this installment, we'll turn things around and look at the 30 highest-rated defenses.

Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric accounts for every aspect of defense: how well teams prevent yardage, how often they get turnovers, and how well they keep points off the board. DVOA measures success on each play, defined using down and distance, then compares it to an NFL average baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. You can read more of the details here -- and yes, defensive DVOA adjusts for opposing offenses, not defenses, but we still call it DVOA. The metric is built to balance a measurement of how well a team has played in the past with a forecast of how well a team will play in the future.

Just like our list of top offenses, a couple of franchises really stand out as consistently great. Where the list of top offenses was dominated by San Francisco and New England, this list of top defenses is dominated by the AFC North rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh. They combine to represent nine of the top 30 defenses since 1987.

You can find DVOA stats for all 30 seasons on the stats pages at Football Outsiders, but as we noted Monday, these stats will be a little different from those regular-season ratings. For the first time we've also added in postseason performance, boosting teams that went on strong championship runs and lowering teams that dominated the regular season only to trip over their own feet in the playoffs. Ratings each year are normalized, accounting for changes in the NFL's offensive environment over the past 30 years. It was certainly easier to keep quarterbacks contained in 1996 than it was in 2016.

Note: A negative defensive DVOA is good and 0 percent represents the league average, so a defense with a minus-30 percent DVOA rated 30 percent better than an average unit. Also, stats other than total defensive DVOA represent the regular season only unless noted. Special thanks to Jeremy Snyder, who did most of the transcription work on the late 1980s and early '90s.

30. 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers
-18.6 percent

Pittsburgh has ranked No. 1 in defensive DVOA five times, more than any other franchise during this 30-year time frame. This was not one of those years, as there will be two other teams from 2004 listed below, but this Steelers defense rates better than the No. 1 defenses they had in both 1993 and 1994.

29. 2008 Tennessee Titans
-18.9 percent

This is how a team goes 13-3 with a 36-year-old Kerry Collins at quarterback. The Titans would rank even higher if they had not rested a number of starters in a meaningless 23-0 loss to Indianapolis in Week 17.

28. 2016 Denver Broncos
-19.0 percent

Last year's Broncos were even better against the pass than you probably think. Only two defenses in 2016 faced a tougher schedule of opposing offenses. Nine of Denver's games came against the top dozen teams in pass offensive DVOA, although the Broncos also get a bit of an artificial boost because one of those games was against Oakland's backup and third-string quarterbacks. The 2016 Broncos rank as the No. 12 pass defense of the past 30 years, but they get dragged down our rankings in overall defense because they were below average against the run.

27. 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers
-19.5 percent

A phenomenal run defense anchored by nose tackle Casey Hampton, the 2010 Steelers limited opposing runners to just over 3.0 yards per carry and ranked as the No. 8 run defense in DVOA history. The Steelers also ranked third against the pass that season, and both outside linebacker James Harrison and safety Troy Polamalu were first-team All-Pros.

26. 2004 Baltimore Ravens
-19.9 percent

Baltimore's defensive record over the past 20 years is just as impressive as the record in Pittsburgh. Since they moved to Baltimore in 1996, the Ravens have ranked No. 1 in defensive DVOA four times and No. 2 three other times. The 2004 Ravens defense limited Peyton Manning and Tom Brady to just one touchdown combined, but they lost both games because their offense was horrible.

25. 1987 San Francisco 49ers
-19.9 percent

Football Outsiders stats for 1987 include only non-strike games, as if Weeks 4-6 of the season never happened. The 49ers had the best defensive DVOA during the regular season, but they fall behind the New York Giants because we're also including their 36-24 upset playoff loss to Minnesota.

24. 1987 New York Giants
-20.8 percent

The defending champion Giants were considered a massive disappointment in 1987, but their struggles were massively overblown -- in part because they went 0-3 with replacement players during the strike. The Giants were 6-6 with the regular roster, and Bill Belichick's defense was as spectacular as always, leading the NFL with 51 sacks.

23. 1999 Baltimore Ravens
-20.8 percent

The Ravens held opponents to just 4.06 average yards per play in 1999, the fourth-lowest figure since the expansion to a 16-game season in 1978. That's actually lower than the legendary 2000 Ravens defense (which allowed 4.29 yards per play). But overall, the 1999 Ravens weren't as good as the 2000 Ravens because they were just average in the red zone and forced a low number of fumbles.

22. 2008 Philadelphia Eagles
-20.9 percent

This was a peculiar season with really high standard deviation among defenses: four of them rank among the top 30 of the past 30 years, while another three (Detroit, Denver and St. Louis) rank among the bottom 30. This was a strong but fairly anonymous defense, with no All-Pros and only Asante Samuel and Brian Dawkins making the Pro Bowl.

21. 1996 Green Bay Packers
-21.4 percent

There was more to this team than just Brett Favre, as the Packers held opponents to 10 points or fewer in nine of 16 regular-season games. Then they allowed just 16 points per game in the playoffs on their way to a Super Bowl victory. LeRoy Butler had his best season with 6.5 sacks, one of the highest totals ever for a defensive back, and five interceptions.

 

[Skooby]

20. 1995 San Francisco 49ers
-21.6 percent

One-year rental Deion Sanders may have departed for rival Dallas, but the 49ers improved on defense the year after they won Super Bowl XXIX. Linebacker Ken Norton, cornerback Eric Davis and safety Merton Hanks were all first-team All-Pros. The 49ers led the NFL with 26 interceptions and limited opposing runners to just 3.0 yards per carry.

19. 1990 Pittsburgh Steelers
-21.6 percent

This Steelers defense was best at stopping the pass. They snagged 24 interceptions and allowed just nine passing touchdowns and a league-low 5.1 net yards per pass. The Steelers limited opponents to single-digit scoring six times. Unfortunately, their offense also was kept to single digits six times.

18. 2015 Carolina Panthers
-22.2 percent

The 2015 Panthers would be outside the top 30 if we included only the regular season, but they get a boost from shutting down the powerful Arizona Cardinals offense in the NFC Championship Game. Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis and Josh Norman were all first-team All-Pros.

17. 2009 New York Jets
-22.7 percent

This was the year Darrelle Revis really became Revis Island, and the Jets' defense ranked No. 1 after falling to 15th the year before. They allowed just eight passing touchdowns and a completion rate of 51.7 percent, far below the NFL average of 60.9 percent. This Jets squad had the No. 5 pass defense DVOA of the past 30 years, and the best pass defense since 2002.

16. 1991 New Orleans Saints
-22.7 percent

This was the finest year for the Dome Patrol, New Orleans' linebacker corps that combined pass-rushers Rickey Jackson and Pat Swilling with USFL refugees Vaughan Johnson and Sam Mills. The Saints won their first-ever division title at 11-5, allowing fewer than 14 points per game with a league-leading 29 interceptions.

The worst defenses of the past 30 years
5. 1999 Cleveland Browns (+22.2 percent): The Browns allowed a 63 percent completion rate with a league-low 25 sacks and eight interceptions. Offenses averaged 4.5 yards per carry versus Cleveland, compared to the league average of 3.9. Expansion is hard.

4. 2008 Detroit Lions (+24.3 percent): This is how a team with Calvin Johnson on it could go 0-16. Detroit allowed 6.4 yards per play and somehow had only four interceptions. Four!

3. 1987 Miami Dolphins (+24.4 percent): In case you are wondering how Dan Marino never won a Super Bowl, the Dolphins were dead last in defensive DVOA in 1987. And 1988. And 1989. And 1991.

2. 2000 Minnesota Vikings (+25.3 percent): Standard stats overrated the Vikings better because opposing teams would slow down the game to keep the ball away from Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss. They faced 165 opponent drives; the NFL average that year was 185. They allowed a league-worst 34.5 yards per drive with only eight interceptions and 17 forced fumbles (10 recovered).

1. 2015 New Orleans Saints (+26.1 percent): The Saints allowed 7.9 net yards per pass, the worst figure since the 1981 Baltimore Colts. They also allowed a league-worst 4.9 yards per carry on the ground. Combined, that's 6.63 yards per play, the worst in NFL history. And they did this against a schedule ranked 29th in the league.

15. 1999 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-23.8 percent

Much like last year's Denver Broncos, the 1999 Buccaneers were heavily slanted toward pass defense. DVOA ranks their run defense 23rd out of 31 teams that year, but their pass defense ranks 10th in the past 30 years. Warren Sapp, John Lynch and Derrick Brooks were all first-team All-Pros.

14. 1988 Minnesota Vikings
-24.5 percent

The Vikings had a fantastic pass defense in 1988, ranked fourth best since 1987. Opposing quarterbacks completed just 45.6 percent of their passes and threw 36 interceptions, a total no defense has matched since. Cornerback Carl Lee, safety Joey Browner and defensive tackle Keith Millard were all first-team All-Pros. Floyd Peters' defensive coaching staff included a young Pete Carroll and Monte Kiffin as position coaches.

13. 2003 Baltimore Ravens
-24.8 percent

In 2003, the Ravens had five games with at least four takeaways and another six games with three takeaways (including their 20-17 wild-card loss to Tennessee). They also allowed a league-low average of 4.23 yards per play.

12. 2006 Baltimore Ravens
-25.1 percent

This edition of the Ravens' defense led the league with 28 interceptions and was one of only five defenses since 1990 with 60 sacks in a season. Adalius Thomas and Ed Reed were first-team All-Pro, and four other Ravens defenders were named to the Pro Bowl.

11. 2000 Tennessee Titans
-25.3 percent

It was the 2000 Titans, not the famed Ravens unit, who led the NFL in defensive DVOA during the regular season. They were stronger against the pass, allowing 4.7 net yards per pass compared to 5.3 for Baltimore. In the final three games of the regular season, with playoff seeding on the line, they allowed three points -- total. The only team to score more than 21 points on Tennessee was the Ravens. They did it twice, and the second time ended the Titans' season in the playoffs.

 

[Skooby]

10. 1991 Washington Redskins
-26.0 percent

The 1991 Super Bowl champion Redskins are better remembered for their offense than their defense; they didn't lead the league in any statistical categories because they had to compete with two other historically great defenses in New Orleans and Philadelphia. But they allowed just 4.9 net yards per pass and 3.9 yards per carry, and had three shutouts in the first five weeks of the season. They move up the list a few spots (and move past the Saints) because of a strong postseason performance.

9. 2012 Chicago Bears
-26.8 percent

For nearly a decade, Lovie Smith's Bears had excellent defenses built around linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs along with cornerback Charles Tillman. This was the last gasp of that multiyear run -- and surprisingly, according to DVOA, the best. The Bears led the league with 44 takeaways and were tied for fourth at 4.95 yards allowed per play, despite playing one of the 10 toughest defensive schedules in the league.

The next year, Urlacher retired and Briggs and Tillman combined to play just 17 games, and the Bears' defense plummeted from first to 25th in DVOA.

8. 2013 Seattle Seahawks
-27.4 percent

This Seahawks defense dominated all season, allowing a league-low 4.42 yards per play, but Seattle did it against the second-easiest schedule of any defense in the league. The opponents got harder in the postseason, but the Seahawks just kept dominating. They kept three of the top eight offenses of 2013 -- including Denver, one of the best offenses in NFL history -- to an average of 13.3 points.

7. 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers; 6. 2008 Baltimore Ravens
-27.6 percent; -27.9 percent

This was the pinnacle of the defensive rivalry that has defined the AFC North in the 21st century. Baltimore was No. 1 against the run and No. 2 against the pass. Pittsburgh was No. 2 against the run and No. 1 against the pass. The Steelers were the better defense during the regular season, and their average of 4.3 net yards allowed per pass is the best figure of any defense in the past 20 years. But the Ravens move slightly ahead once we consider the postseason because they shut down the Miami and Tennessee offenses in their first two playoff games. The Steelers had the last laugh, however, beating Baltimore 23-14 in the AFC Championship Game and then going on to win the Super Bowl. The All-Pro first team featured two Ravens (Ed Reed and Ray Lewis) and two Steelers (James Harrison and Troy Polamalu).

5. 2015 Denver Broncos
-28.3 percent

Unlike last year's Broncos, the Super Bowl champions were dominant against both the pass (No. 1 in DVOA with a league-leading 5.1 net yards allowed per pass) and the run (No. 4 in DVOA with a league-leading 3.3 yards allowed per carry). The Broncos put up these numbers against the fourth-toughest schedule of opposing offenses. Denver's issue wasn't too many games against the best offenses, but almost no games against bad offenses; Indianapolis and Cleveland were the Broncos' only opponents to rank 21st or lower in offensive DVOA. Then, like the 2013 Seahawks, they had to vanquish three of the top eight offenses in the playoffs on the way to the Lombardi trophy. Remarkably, Von Miller was the only player on this defense elected to the AP All-Pro first team.

4. 2004 Buffalo Bills
-28.5 percent

The 2004 Bills were the best team of this century to miss the playoffs, ranking No. 1 in DVOA for both defense and special teams. They had one of the greatest defenses that almost nobody remembers. The Bills led the league with 39 takeaways and allowed a league-low 4.32 yards per play. They tied for third with 45 sacks even though Aaron Schobel (8.0) was the only player with more than five. In one absurd December game, they allowed Cleveland a grand total of 26 yards in a 37-7 victory. The Bills did this with a lineup that probably included no Hall of Famers, unless London Fletcher or Pat Williams sneaks in some day. The Bills would have entered the playoffs red-hot as long as they beat Pittsburgh in Week 17. The game was in Buffalo and the 14-1 Steelers were resting starters. The defense held Tommy Maddox to 120 passing yards but somehow let the Steelers hold onto the ball for nearly nine minutes with a 26-17 lead in the fourth quarter. The Steelers won 29-24, and the Bills missed their best chance at the postseason since the Music City Miracle.

3. 2000 Baltimore Ravens
-33.1 percent

We can look at the 2000 Ravens in two ways. We can acknowledge that many of the regular-season records they set came courtesy of one of the easiest defensive schedules in history. Or, we can focus on the fact that the Ravens are almost as superlative in Football Outsiders' advanced stats, even after we've adjusted for that super-easy schedule. The Ravens have the best run defense DVOA of all time, and they famously allowed only 2.7 yards per carry for the entire regular season. They had four shutouts and held opponents to 10 points or fewer in 11 of 16 regular-season games. But the Ravens really became legends in the playoffs, allowing just 23 total points in four games to Denver (No. 3 in offensive DVOA), Tennessee (No. 16), Oakland (No. 6) and the New York Giants (No. 8). That postseason performance moves the Ravens up from No. 12 to No. 3 on this list.

2. 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-36.7 percent

This is the best pass defense of the past 30 years. According to DVOA, the Bucs were 51.9 percent more efficient than the baseline during the regular season. They allowed 4.5 net yards per pass, the third-best figure of the past 20 years. They allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 51 percent of passes. They led the league with 31 interceptions, nearly double the league average of 16.5. They were at their best in the most important situations: No. 1 in the red zone, No. 1 in the second half of close games, and No. 3 against the pass on third downs. Defensive end Simeon Rice, defensive tackle Warren Sapp and linebacker Derrick Brooks were all selected as first-team All-Pros, with linebacker Shelton Quarles and safety John Lynch joining them in the Pro Bowl.

Similar to the 2000 Ravens, DVOA penalizes the Bucs for the easiest defensive schedule in the regular season, but they proved themselves further in the playoffs by shutting down two of the top three offenses in the league that year (No. 2 Oakland and No. 3 San Francisco, plus No. 10 Philadelphia). The Bucs don't reach the No. 1 spot of all time because they were "only" eighth in DVOA against the run, including a surprising 27th against the run on third downs.

1. 1991 Philadelphia Eagles
-42.4 percent

Looking at raw points scored and allowed can sometimes disguise the true strength of a defense because of problems on the other side of the ball. No team in modern NFL history exemplifies this quite like the 1991 Eagles. After Randall Cunningham tore an ACL 15 minutes into the first game of the season, the Eagles' offense collapsed. The defense spent the season constantly defending short fields. So while the Eagles gave up just 3.92 yards per play, the third-best figure since the move to a 16-game season in 1978, they finished fifth overall in points allowed in 1991.

Opposing quarterbacks completed just 44.1 percent of passes, the lowest rate for any defense since 1978. They led the NFL with 55 sacks and 43 forced fumbles. They finished third with 26 interceptions. And the defense wasn't one-dimensional: The Eagles allowed just 2.97 yards per carry on the ground, which ranks fifth since 1978. They put up these obscene numbers in standard stats despite playing the fourth-toughest defensive schedule in the league. Their division rivals finished first (Washington), fourth (Dallas) and sixth (New York) in offensive DVOA.

This was the late Buddy Ryan's defense, but without Ryan. He had been fired as head coach at the end of 1990. Rich Kotite was the head coach and Bud Carson the defensive coordinator. Three of the four defensive linemen were selected as first-team All-Pros: Reggie White, Jerome Brown and Clyde Simmons. Linebacker Seth Joyner and cornerback Eric Allen joined them in the Pro Bowl.

Unlike the 2000 Ravens and the 2002 Bucs, the 1991 Eagles didn't get to build a legend with a dominating Super Bowl victory. The team couldn't get enough out of Jeff Kemp, Brad Goebel and a 32-year-old Jim McMahon to even make it to the playoffs. Nonetheless, the 1991 Eagles were the best defense of the past 30 years.

 

[GreatestLaker]

NBA Mock Draft: Trade talk and most likely picks

 

[Skooby]

NBA Mock Draft: Trade talk and most likely picks

Mock Draft 8.0: Most likely picks, trade talk and much more

It's draft day, baby!

Here's our latest intel based on conversations with NBA scouts and general managers, including potential trades and most likely picks for the first and second rounds.

I'll continue to update this mock draft throughout the day with new information.


After a year of scouting, physicals, interviews, workouts, thousands of hours of watching tape and endless debates on the pros and cons of certain players in the draft ... we are finally here.

Now, I only wish NBA front offices were. Believe it or not, teams are still firming up their draft boards, still arguing and, of course, still fielding trade calls. Some teams won't make up their minds until they are on the clock.

Complicating this draft more than most? Virtually every team aside from the Sixers at No. 1 is still considering trade options that include their picks. The Lakers and Celtics, who are drafting second and third, respectively, have been especially active.





1. Philadelphia 76ers (via Celtics)

Markelle Fultz
Washington
Freshman
Guard

Other potential draftees: None

The Sixers made the right choice in trading two picks -- including a valuable future first-rounder -- to the Celtics to move up for Fultz. Not only is he the top player on our Big Board, he's the perfect fit in Philly.

The reason you collect assets like the picks from L.A. and Sacramento is to use them to get the players you want and need. The Sixers did that, and I don't think they'll have any regrets.

Fultz's abilities to handle, shoot and defend multiple positions make him a great complement to Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. The process now has the three key building blocks in place that it needs to be great in future years.







2. Los Angeles Lakers

Lonzo Ball
UCLA
Freshman
Guard

Other potential draftees: Josh Jackson

The Lakers started sending signals over the weekend that Ball was going to be their guy if they kept this pick. The trade of D'Angelo Russell to the Nets is yet another piece of evidence that Ball is coming.

Ball is a great fit in L.A., and probably an even better fit with Russell changing coasts. His elite court vision and ability to make everyone around him better are highly valued by the Lakers, and they should be. He has a funky shot and is a poor defender right now, but neither of those issues should eclipse what a wizard he can be on the offensive end.

The only thing that derails this scenario now is if the Lakers feel as if they have to part with the No. 2 pick to get Paul George.







3. Boston Celtics (via 76ers)

Jayson Tatum
Duke
Freshman
Forward

Other potential draftees: Josh Jackson

Celtics president Danny Ainge is still fielding trade offers, but as of Wednesday the most likely outcome looks like the Celtics selecting at No. 3.

This pick seems to come down to Tatum versus Josh Jackson. The Celtics love them both, and one source in Boston said they've been going back and forth on the two about every six hours.

Jackson was the early favorite here, but a strong workout and interview by Tatum, combined with a refusal from Jackson's agent to bring him in for a similar workout, appear to have tipped the scales in Tatum's direction.

That's not the only reason. While the Celtics prize Jackson's defense and feel as if he'll be an instant fit in their defensive culture, what they really need is a shot-maker who can stretch the floor. Tatum is a superior shooter and scorer to Jackson. In fact, he's the most NBA-ready scorer in the draft. He doesn't bring Jackson's defensive abilities, but the Celtics are hopeful that he'll buy into what they do on the defensive end the same way Jaylen Brown did last season.







4. Phoenix Suns

De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

Other potential draftees: Jayson Tatum, Josh Jackson, Jonathan Isaac

The Suns have been trying to trade up to land Ball, but it looks as if they're not going to be successful. They've also discussed trading for veterans such as Paul George, Jimmy Butler and Kevin Love (and they swatted down an offer for DeAndre Jordan), but for now it appears the most likely scenario is that they'll keep their pick.

If Tatum is off the board, this pick will come down to Jackson, Fox or Jonathan Isaac. The Suns like all three.

Jackson would give them a defense-minded wing who adds toughness and versatility to a young, offense-minded team. He appears to be favored by GM Ryan McDonough.

Fox gives them a high-character, super-quick point guard who could open the door to Phoenix moving Eric Bledsoe over the summer. However, he canceled his workout with the Suns and didn't reschedule. Still, owner Robert Sarver, according to a source, is very high on Fox.

Isaac might have more upside than either player as a long, athletic forward who can guard multiple positions and score in a number of ways. He has the support of head coach Earl Watson.

It has been hard to discern who will win the battle. I think Jackson is the best fit, given the current roster, but when in doubt go with the owner.







5. Sacramento Kings (via 76ers)

Josh Jackson
Kansas
Freshman
Forward

Other potential draftees: De'Aaron Fox

The Kings explored moving up to No. 2 or No. 3 in the draft. Some sources say they tried to move up and were rebuffed by the Lakers and Celtics. Others say it was the Kings who turned down offers from L.A. and Boston.

It's hard to know for sure, but the bottom line is that it looks as if they're keeping the No. 5 and No. 10 picks and hoping either Jackson or Fox drops to them. If Tatum is the guy who falls to No. 5, look for them to re-engage the Celtics about a swap.

They have been enamored with both Jackson and Fox for a while, and both fit a major need for them. Fox brings elite quickness, leadership and high character -- all things the Kings are hungry for. Jackson can defend multiple positions and brings an intensity that's unmatched in the draft.

If both Fox and Jackson are still on the board (say, for example, the Suns or Celtics take Isaac instead), the Kings will be in for a very, very tough decision. They love both players.





6. Orlando Magic

Jonathan Isaac
Florida State
Freshman
Forward

Other potential draftees: Lauri Markkanen, Dennis Smith, Malik Monk

The Magic continue to lean toward Isaac, but they've also shown significant interest in Lauri Markkanen the past week, and there are some in the organization who feel he's a better fit. The Magic desperately want shooting, and some GMs think Markkanen is the best shooter in the draft. Alas, Markkanen has some major defensive deficiencies that limit his upside.

Isaac has the potential to be a good shooter some day and has much more upside on the defensive end. Given the track records of new front-office executives Jeff Weltman and John Hammond, I think Isaac is the more likely choice. But if they grabbed Markkanen, I wouldn't be shocked.





7. Minnesota Timberwolves

Lauri Markkanen
Arizona
Freshman
Forward

Other potential draftees: Jonathan Isaac, Malik Monk

We've been back and forth between Isaac and Markkanen here for several mock drafts.

Both are excellent fits for the Wolves, who are looking for a stretch-4. Isaac would offer more upside. Markkanen is more ready now and a more proven shooter.

With Isaac off the board, this looks like Markkanen's spot. If Markkanen goes No. 6, I think Isaac goes No. 7.

The Wolves have also been engaging in trade talks with teams such as the Bulls, Pacers and Spurs in hopes of landing a veteran to balance out this young squad. Their pick is heavily in play.





8. New York Knicks

Frank Ntilikina
France
Age: 18
Guard

Other potential draftees: Malik Monk, Lauri Markkanen, Luke Kennard, Donovan Mitchell

The Knicks are throwing everyone in the league into a frenzy by taking calls on Kristaps Porzingis. Multiple teams say the Knicks are trying to get into the top five to grab Josh Jackson. If they get there (and I think Porzingis is worth that price) it will obviously affect the strategy here. A player like Markkanen might then enter the picture, if available.

If they don't make a trade, the Knicks seem to be focusing on four guards: Ntilikina, Malik Monk, Luke Kennard and Donovan Mitchell. Monk and Kennard provide elite shooting. Ntilikina gives them a super-long point guard with major room to grow. Mitchell's length, athleticism and versatility is also very interesting to the Knicks.

The Knicks don't have a long track record of being patient, but the word out of New York is that there's a strong debate going on in the front office between Ntilikina and Monk. I have them leaning toward Ntilikina, but it's a toss-up.