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Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
- Thread starter the cool
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I'll have to post it when I get back on Tuesday unless I can find a computer somewhere before then.
Should Celtics keep the No. 1 pick or trade for a star?
Should the Boston Celtics swap the No. 1 in the 2017 NBA draft pick for superstars Jimmy Butler or Paul George (or a future star such as Kristaps Porzingis)? How do current All-Star Isaiah Thomas and free agents like Gordon Hayward factor into the decision?
Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton debate Boston's options and offer their verdicts.
Who would Boston trade for?
Ford: The Boston Celtics were the big winners in Tuesday night's lottery, securing the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NBA draft. Most teams in this spot are in desperate need of young talent and rarely seriously consider trading the pick. But the Celtics are in a much different position. They are in the Eastern Conference finals, and even after losing Game 1 badly at home to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday, they look to be one All-Star away from being a serious championship contender.
The temptation to try to turn this pick into an established All-Star in his prime will be strong for the Celtics. Should they do it?
Kevin, let's start with a baseline question. What is the No. 1 pick in this draft worth? What could the Celtics reasonably expect to get in return?
Pelton: Based on the analysis I've done on the cost of a win, the typical value of a No. 1 pick and the new rookie scale for first-round picks, I find that an average No. 1 pick would provide production worth about $36 million more than his rookie contract.
To put that in context, there are 15 players in the league -- mostly either current All-Stars or promising young players like Kristaps Porzingis of the New York Knicks -- projected to provide more value above and beyond their salary over the life of their current contracts. Those are the kind of stars Boston would be targeting in return, highlighted by Chicago Bulls wing Jimmy Butler.
Ford: Interesting that you mention Butler. He and the Indiana Pacers' Paul George are the two players who appear to be fits for the Celtics. Both players give them an upgrade on the wing (though Jae Crowder's terrific contract might mitigate some of the improvement), are in the prime of their careers and could be the missing piece for Boston. And I think the Bulls and Pacers would both be motivated to trade them for the No. 1 pick.
I guess the question is, do you think the addition of Butler or George is worth a chance to draft Lonzo Ball or Markelle Fultz for the Celtics? I say yes for George -- if he would agree to sign a long-term extension in Boston. For Butler, I think the Celtics might need a little more in the deal. Is there anyone else Boston should be eyeing besides those two?
Pelton: That's a pretty big if with George. I wrote about the hypothetical choice for Boston before the trade deadline, and concluded that while George was the better fit with the Celtics' roster, his contract made Butler the better choice. That choice is even easier now that Boston would be guaranteed only one playoff run with George. There's no way that renting him would be worth giving up Fultz or Ball.
Because Butler has the extra year on his contract before a player option, and because he projects as the better overall player after outperforming George this season, he looks more valuable than the No. 1 pick. I estimate his net value above and beyond his salary the next two seasons at $54 million. So the No. 1 pick for Butler would be a good value. The No. 1 pick and Crowder for Butler? I'm drawing the line there because Crowder has three seasons left on his deal at an average of $7.3 million, less than the non-taxpayer midlevel exception at the CBA. The upgrade from Crowder to Butler isn't big enough to justify giving up the No. 1 pick as well.
Anyone else the Celtics should be considering? If I were Danny Ainge, I'd definitely be bugging Phil Jackson about Porzingis' availability. Porzingis would provide an ideal combination of value to Boston right now -- he'd immediately fill the fifth spot in the starting lineup that has been an issue for the Celtics in the playoffs -- and ability to grow with the team's young talents and peak after LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have finally started to come back to earth.
Would Phil hang up on me?
Ford: Probably. Drafting Porzingis is the one thing Phil Jackson has done right in his tenure. Most of the other moves he has made have been a disaster. Porzingis represents hope to the Knicks and even as good as Fultz and Ball are, it's tough to trade potential for a player you already are confident will be a star someday. But I do agree with you that Porzingis with the Celtics is a good fit and worth a phone call from Ainge. Maybe a combination of the No. 1 pick plus another asset for Boston would do the trick.
Reasons to keep the pick
Ford: So those are the players who might be available to the Celtics. But let's talk about the merits of keeping their pick. Is there a player in this draft that you see as an ideal fit for the Celtics? Someone who both has a high ceiling but also could contribute to the team as it's currently constructed (or could be potentially constructed if the Celtics moved a player or two)?
Pelton: It's interesting. As far as I can tell, the consensus is that Fultz is a better fit alongside Isaiah Thomas as a shooting guard, and I disagree. It remains to be seen how effective both Ball and Fultz will be as catch-and-shoot options spotting up away from the ball, something I'm sure we'll dig into before the draft. But I think Ball's court vision will make him an effective playmaker when the ball is swung to him on the weak side. Meanwhile, running pick-and-roll is far and away Fultz's best skill, and while he'll have the ability to do that at times playing with Thomas, it's unlikely to be the focus of his game.
Of course, given the development curve for young point guards, Boston shouldn't be making this decision based on how Ball and Fultz fit with players who might not be on the roster by the time they start to come into their own. And if we're talking about a replacement for Thomas, I think Fultz is better suited to be the centerpiece of an offense in the same way Thomas is now. I'm assuming you agree that he's the right choice for Boston?
Ford: I would lean Fultz right now for a reason that you didn't state: He has the ability to play and defend multiple positions and I think he gives the Celtics some flexibility that Ball doesn't. But I agree that Ball could also be a good fit in Boston given its current roster.
I also wonder, as good as Thomas is, whether the Celtics should be making this move with the assumption that he's a cornerstone of the franchise. Thomas has been incredible the past two seasons, but I'm not sure you are a championship contender riding the back of a 5-foot-9 combo guard. Thomas has proven me wrong in the past and might do so again, but if Ainge is looking at the long play, I think Fultz would be my choice.
So I guess that gets us to the final question. If you're Ainge, do you trade this pick (assuming the players we discussed were available) or do you keep the pick and draft either Ball or Fultz?
Pelton: The one variable we haven't discussed here is free agency. If Boston is able to sign Gordon Hayward, the idea of trading Crowder and the No. 1 pick as part of a Butler deal becomes a lot more palatable. At that point, the Celtics might be one player away from seriously challenging the Cavaliers and having a chance to legitimately compete with the Golden State Warriors in a possible NBA Finals matchup.
Alas, Boston won't know the outcome of free agency until after the draft. So unless the Bulls are willing to move Butler without getting a starter in return, I'd hang on to the pick and draft Fultz, giving the Celtics maximum flexibility to compete both now and for years to come. What's your verdict?
Ford: I'm skeptical that Boston will get Hayward. The Utah Jazz can offer him significantly more money, they have a great young nucleus and he gets along well with head coach Quin Snyder. Players usually don't leave millions of dollars on the table, especially when they are already in a good situation.
But I do think you are right that the most prudent move for the Celtics is to be patient. Draft Fultz, see how free agency pans out and then make the moves you need to make. That's what the Cavs did a few years ago when they drafted Andrew Wiggins. Then, when LeBron signed in free agency, they decided to go ahead and move Wiggins for Kevin Love.
If nothing presents itself, Boston has the best player in the draft. If a great deal comes along, they can pull the trigger. So, I'm with you, I'd punt the decision until mid-July. The deals available now should still be available then.
LeBron, Durant, Harden rank among top 10 performers in clutch situations
Who has been the most clutch player of this era?
That's a thorny question, isn't it? Ah, but it's a fun one, too. A disclaimer: We're not even sure if "clutchness" is a skill, something that can repeatedly give a player an edge in tight situations. Secondly, if clutch were a skill, how would you measure it?
Michael Beuoy has taken a stab at this topic. As the site founder of Inpredictable.com, he has developed a statistical model to try to identify players who move the needle in clutch situations. He calls it "clutch WPA," which is the amount of win probability added above or below a "normal" play.
Let's use an example. Take Avery Bradley's winner in Game 3 of the East finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers. With the ball in a tie game, the Celtics had the upper hand. How big was their advantage? According to historical clock-and-score data, teams in the Celtics' spot have won the game 62.7 percent of the time when facing this particular set of circumstances. Makes sense.
When Bradley's shot bounced around and eventually dropped through the net, the Celtics went up three with 0.2 seconds left. Teams in this scenario won the game 99.8 percent of the time. The difference, then, is 37.1 percent. On average, a 3-point shot adds 4.6 percent to a team's probability of winning. Beuoy's clutch WPA would credit Bradley with the difference of plus-32.5 of clutch WPA.
This cuts both ways. If you miss a big shot or turn over the ball at a critical juncture, you'll lose clutch WPA points according to the difference in win probability. Clutch play has traditionally been measured simply by number of game winners or buzzer-beaters, but this method is much more comprehensive. If you made 10 game-winners, but missed 90 others, those 90 shouldn't magically disappear from our memory or evaluation.
One other appealing feature of this model is not all clutch shots are the same. The size of the moment matters. The NBA.com definition of clutch situations -- when the game is within five in the final five minutes -- is useful, but it lacks some key context. Under that criteria, a shot with 4:30 left, up four is treated the same as a game-winning shot at the buzzer. One shot moves the needle very little; the other literally moves the needle from one side to the other.
Beuoy understands the limitations of his model. It does not incorporate assists, rebounds, blocks or steals into the equation. So, yes, LeBron James' block on Andre Iguodala in Game 7 of the Finals was one of the most clutch defensive plays in NBA history, but it doesn't count in this model. Secondly, it doesn't incorporate opponent. But as you'll see soon, James doesn't exactly need any help in the clutch department.
What you'll find below is the top 10 list of clutch WPA among active players, which has been prorated to 82 games. In other words, how many games has a player won or lost per 82 games based purely on his clutch play? This also puts younger players on equal footing with older players who have had more opportunities to boost their clutch WPA. Also note that Beuoy's database goes back to 2003-04, which gives us 14 seasons of data. For more on Inpredictable's clutch model, go here and here.
With all the fine print out of the way, let's get to the fun stuff.
10. Al Horford
Boston Celtics
Clutch WPA: 1.49
Yeah, Al Horford. With a silky jumper and a winning pedigree, Horford remains one of the best performers in late-game situations. In his career, he has shot a remarkable 9-of-17 (53 percent) on field goal attempts in the final 10 seconds of a one-possession game. In fact, he's the only player on record who has made more than half of his shots in those situations with a minimum of 15 attempts.
He was a two-time champion at the college level. Celtics fans will remember back in November, Horford came up with the game-winning putback and the game-saving block at the buzzer against Detroit. Horford's clutch WPA in the playoffs tops MVP candidates Kevin Durant, James Harden and Stephen Curry. He came up big in this postseason. Before John Wall's game-winning 3 in Game 6 of the East semifinals, it was Horford's 16-footer that put the Celtics up two with seven seconds left. And in the Game 3 win, Horford drove for two on Tristan Thompson to put the Celtics up three with 45 seconds left.
9. Chris Paul
LA Clippers
Clutch WPA: 1.61
If you take care of the ball and make shots at a high percentage, you'll fare nicely on this list. Paul does both, even if he hasn't gone deep in the playoffs like some others. Paul has had his fair share of late-game blunders. The pair of turnovers in Game 5 against OKC in the 2014 West semifinals immediately come to mind.
But Paul has generally been a beast in late-game situations. He owns the fourth-highest PER in clutch situations (NBA.com version) since 2007 and the best for any point guard. Before Joe Johnson won Game 1 of the Jazz-Clippers series this postseason, Paul hit the game-tying floater with 13 seconds left, just some of his 10 consecutive points in the fourth quarter to carry the Clippers. And who could forget the backbreaking game winner off the glass against the Spurs in Game 7 of their 2015 first-round series with one second left on the clock? Paul is a Point God even if the Clippers can't stay healthy.
8. Isaiah Thomas
Boston Celtics
Clutch WPA: 1.77
Of course, the "King of the Fourth" finds himself on this list. When defenses clamp down late, the 5-foot-9 point guard often stands tallest. He led all players in fourth-quarter points this season and did so in 87 fewer attempts and 32 fewer turnovers than Russell Westbrook. His 2016-17 regular-season campaign registered the second-highest clutch WPA since 2003-04, earning a 5.19 figure this season alone.
Thomas' clutch performance has been stellar. He owns a 61.9 percent true shooting percentage in clutch situations in his career, which is higher than anybody on this list. As the Cavs pulled away in Game 4 of this season's East finals, Thomas' absence was noticeable as the Celtics' well dried up late.
7. C.J. McCollum
Portland Trail Blazers
Clutch WPA: 1.84
The Lehigh University standout is not afraid of the moment. In February against Dallas, McCollum etched his first career game winner in the final five seconds, after the legendary Dirk Nowitzki nailed a go-ahead shot on the trip before. Damian Lillard has gotten more of the spotlight, but McCollum has been an absolute beast in big moments as well.
Believe it or not, McCollum is two buckets away from becoming a member of the 50/40/90 club (from the floor, 3-point and free throw line) in clutch situations for his career. He's shooting 49.2 percent from the floor on 185 attempts, 40.4 percent from deep on 52 attempts and 91.3 percent at the line in the final five minutes of games within five, per NBA.com tracking. In the final 10 seconds of a one-possession game, McCollum holds a ridiculous 72.9 percent true shooting percentage. That might not be sustainable over a larger sample size, but this 25-year-old has definitely earned this spot. Only IT4 was more clutch during the regular season, according to Beuoy's model.
6. James Harden
Houston Rockets
Clutch WPA: 1.93
OK, so he didn't have a great Game 6 in this season's West semifinals loss to the Spurs. But Harden has come up big throughout his career. He might lack a long line of iconic game winners on his ledger, but Nuggets fans should recall his coast-to-coast clutch game-winning layup a couple of months ago and the ensuing steal to ice the game. Harden also landed the knockout blow with a clutch jumper with 12 seconds left in Game 3 against Dallas in the 2015 playoffs.
What Harden brings is consistency. Unlike LeBron James and Stephen Curry, Harden has never registered a negative clutch WPA in any regular season of his career. To consider how rare that is, Russell Westbrook has a negative clutch WPA for his career (minus-1.45). With top-notch efficiency and a knack for getting easy points at the line, Harden's clutchness doesn't fit the traditional mold. But the Beard, save for that recent Game 6, has come up big plenty.
5. Jimmy Butler
Chicago Bulls
Clutch WPA: 1.94
I mean, he's called Jimmy Buckets for a reason. Despite sharing the rock with Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo, the Chicago star put up the third-highest clutch WPA of the season. He shot 11-of-23 (47.8 percent) in the final minute of one-possession games this season (league average is 35.5 percent) and turned the ball over only once.
Butler has been a metronome of reliability down the stretch. The Marquette product has finished top-five in the clutch WPA leaderboard in each of the past three seasons. Meanwhile, former backcourt mate Derrick Rose has six negative clutch WPA campaigns in eight seasons. No matter who he's playing next to, Butler gets buckets when it matters.
4. Kevin Durant
Golden State Warriors
Clutch WPA: 2.06
It wasn't Durant's best season in this department (he ranked 26th), but last season, he finished second overall to ... yup, Stephen Curry. Contrast that with Westbrook, who finished 454th in clutch WPA in 2015-16. Maybe that factored into Durant's decision to join the Dubs? Either way, Westbrook flipped the script and delivered the better clutch season than either Durant or Curry in 2016-17.
Durant possesses key characteristics that make him a nightmare in clutch situations: He can get any shot off and his jumper is money. His defining moment has yet to come in a Warriors uniform, but his 2012 run to the Finals was chock-full of clutch moments (just ask the Lakers and Mavs).
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3. Dirk Nowitzki
Dallas Mavericks
Clutch WPA: 2.09
Remember when people thought Dirk was soft? Not a winner? Yeah, forget all that. By nearly any measure, Nowitzki has been more clutch than Kobe Bryant. Here are some facts: Since 2003-04, Nowitzki outpaced Bryant 29.5 to 20.1 in clutch WPA (postseason included). In the final 10 seconds of a one-possession game, Nowitzki shot 31-of-86 (36 percent) while Bryant shot 40-of-147 (27.2 percent). That's almost twice as many misses by Bryant in those moments.
Nowitzki's signature jumper is as unblockable as it is accurate. His 2010-11 postseason ranks far and away the most clutch playoff run in the database (2.15 clutch WPA) and his 2005-06 campaign tied for fourth, coincidentally with Dwyane Wade's 2005-06, when the Heat rallied to beat the Mavericks in the NBA Finals. (If Nowitzki had made that crucial Game 3 free throw, he'd have broken the tie with Wade).
There are too many clutch shots on his highlight reel to list, but people forget the game winner in Game 2 of the 2011 Finals where he just blitzed past Chris Bosh in the high post and laid it in over the Heat defense with 3.6 seconds left. And he's still doing it. Nowitzki's 2016-17 regular season ranked 39th in clutch WPA ahead of guys with sterling reps such as Carmelo Anthony, Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard.
2. LeBron James
Cleveland Cavaliers
Clutch WPA: 2.35
His clutch numbers are astounding. James has by far the highest total clutch WPA in the database, netting almost twice as many wins as Bryant in clutch situations (36.36 vs. 20.13). James' epic 2007-08 regular season is the best since 2003-04, delivering a 5.45 clutch WPA thanks to his 10 field goals to tie or take the lead in the final minute. Of the top 15 most-clutch regular seasons in the database, James' name shows up four times; Bryant (two) is the only other name that shows up more than once.
In the postseason, James has shot 15-of-34 (44 percent) on shots to tie or take the lead in the final minute. By comparison, Bryant shot 10-of-37 (27 percent) in such situations, per Basketball Reference.com tracking. In 2015, FiveThirtyEight.com found that James may be the most-clutch playoff shooter of his generation, and that study was done before he won the 2016 Finals against a 73-9 team.
The crazy thing is that James was knocked for so long for seemingly preferring a clutch assist over taking a clutch shot. But this model doesn't even look at assists -- just shots and turnovers. Looking at overall stats, James has a 40.9 PER in clutch situations in the past decade, which is eight points higher than any other player during that time.
1. Anthony Davis
New Orleans Pelicans
Clutch WPA: 2.87
Oh. So this is what happens when you have arms for days, a tight handle and a knockdown midrange jumper. Davis had a so-so year in the clutch department, but his track record has been nearly flawless since he joined the NBA ranks. His 2014-15 regular season ranks third best in the entire database, behind only Isaiah Thomas' 2016-17 and James' 2007-08 campaigns. Two of Davis' five seasons in the NBA already rank in the top 50 in a pool of 7,000 player-seasons in the database.
You want some numbers? The Brow is 19-of-35 (54.3 percent) on shots to tie or take the lead in the final minute for his career and less than half of those were assisted. If we zoom into the final 10 seconds of one-possession games, he owns a preposterous 67.7 true-shooting percentage (league average is 47.7 percent). That seems like a fluke until you realize he has a 61.2 true shooting percentage in the final five minutes of games within five and a 64.2 true shooting percentage in the final minute of one-possession games. The Brow is just cold-blooded.
It's breathtaking to consider that Davis -- in just five seasons -- already has accumulated more career clutch WPA than big-shot legends Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce. The buzzer-beating, double-clutch 3-pointer to beat the Thunder on their home floor in February 2015 remains one of the most ridiculous clutch shots in recent history. Sure, we'd like to see more in the postseason, but the dude is 24 years old. He's just getting started.
Here's a look at where some notable active and retired players land in terms of clutch winning probability added for the regular season, postseason and per-82 games.
Notable players based on clutch-WPA (Since 2003-04)
Player Reg clWPA Post clWPA Total clWPA Games clWPA82
Brandon Roy 8.61 0.56 9.17 341 2.21
Ray Allen 18.92 3.91 22.83 921 2.03
Kobe Bryant 18.1 3.00 21.1 973 1.78
Damian Lillard 6.33 1.38 7.71 427 1.48
Chris Bosh 15.62 1.79 17.41 982 1.45
Peja Stojakovic 8.53 0.35 8.88 519 1.40
Stephen Curry 9.48 0.84 10.32 642 1.32
Mehmet Okur 9.5 0.01 9.51 616 1.27
Chauncey Billups 10.59 1.24 11.83 797 1.22
Jason Terry 16.73 0.5 17.23 1156 1.22
Kawhi Leonard 5.70 1.25 6.95 483 1.18
Kyrie Irving 5.18 0.91 6.09 425 1.18
Rashard Lewis 9.54 1.72 11.26 806 1.15
Jamal Crawford 13.53 0.68 14.21 1087 1.07
JJ Redikk 8.29 0.27 8.56 778 0.90
Gilbert Arenas 3.82 1.05 4.87 454 0.88
Klay Thompson 5.38 0.18 5.56 538 0.85
Brent Barry 3.57 0.89 4.46 451 0.81
Paul George 3.00 1.56 4.56 513 0.73
Vince Carter 9.29 0.16 9.45 1109 0.70
DeMar DeRozan 4.78 -0.01 4.77 636 0.62
Carmelo Anthony 8.62 -0.86 7.76 1041 0.61
Blake Griffin 3.98 -0.27 3.71 520 0.59
Dwyane Wade 6.69 0.91 7.6 1087 0.57
Kevin Love 4.33 -0.23 4.10 611 0.55
Steve Nash 5.44 -0.71 4.73 819 0.47
Robert Horry 0.74 1.44 2.18 411 0.43
Gordon Hayward 2.26 0.17 2.43 529 0.38
Dwight Howard 2.41 1.88 4.29 1049 0.34
Kyle Lowry 1.82 0.65 2.47 765 0.26
Grant Hill 1.38 0.02 1.4 567 0.20
Tim Duncan 1.73 0.95 2.68 1118 0.20
Pau Gasol 0.71 1.46 2.17 1085 0.16
Allen Iverson 0.65 0.23 0.88 441 0.16
Draymond Green 0.44 0.21 0.65 470 0.11
Kevin Garnett 0.81 0.38 1.19 965 0.10
Mike Conley 0.96 -0.55 0.41 762 0.04
Rudy Gay 0.16 -0.19 -0.03 760 0.00
Richard Hamilton 0.77 -0.84 -0.07 740 -0.01
Goran Dragic -1.01 0.51 -0.50 677 -0.06
Shaquille O'Neal -0.69 -0.72 -1.41 545 -0.21
Russell Westbrook -1.45 -2.53 -3.98 755 -0.43
Derrick Rose -2.17 -0.57 -2.74 511 -0.44
Stephon Marbury -2.05 -0.28 -2.33 362 -0.53
Jason Kidd -4.17 -1.19 -5.36 831 -0.53
John Wall -4.5 -0.54 -5.04 531 -0.78
DeMarcus Cousins -5.07 -5.07 486 -0.86
Ricky Rubio -4.95 -4.95 353 -1.15
Antoine Walker -5.46 -0.6 -6.06 403 -1.23
Rajon Rondo -11.2 -1.15 -12.35 809 -1.25
Notable observations
Dallas Mavericks
Clutch WPA: 2.09
Remember when people thought Dirk was soft? Not a winner? Yeah, forget all that. By nearly any measure, Nowitzki has been more clutch than Kobe Bryant. Here are some facts: Since 2003-04, Nowitzki outpaced Bryant 29.5 to 20.1 in clutch WPA (postseason included). In the final 10 seconds of a one-possession game, Nowitzki shot 31-of-86 (36 percent) while Bryant shot 40-of-147 (27.2 percent). That's almost twice as many misses by Bryant in those moments.
Nowitzki's signature jumper is as unblockable as it is accurate. His 2010-11 postseason ranks far and away the most clutch playoff run in the database (2.15 clutch WPA) and his 2005-06 campaign tied for fourth, coincidentally with Dwyane Wade's 2005-06, when the Heat rallied to beat the Mavericks in the NBA Finals. (If Nowitzki had made that crucial Game 3 free throw, he'd have broken the tie with Wade).
There are too many clutch shots on his highlight reel to list, but people forget the game winner in Game 2 of the 2011 Finals where he just blitzed past Chris Bosh in the high post and laid it in over the Heat defense with 3.6 seconds left. And he's still doing it. Nowitzki's 2016-17 regular season ranked 39th in clutch WPA ahead of guys with sterling reps such as Carmelo Anthony, Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard.
2. LeBron James
Cleveland Cavaliers
Clutch WPA: 2.35
His clutch numbers are astounding. James has by far the highest total clutch WPA in the database, netting almost twice as many wins as Bryant in clutch situations (36.36 vs. 20.13). James' epic 2007-08 regular season is the best since 2003-04, delivering a 5.45 clutch WPA thanks to his 10 field goals to tie or take the lead in the final minute. Of the top 15 most-clutch regular seasons in the database, James' name shows up four times; Bryant (two) is the only other name that shows up more than once.
In the postseason, James has shot 15-of-34 (44 percent) on shots to tie or take the lead in the final minute. By comparison, Bryant shot 10-of-37 (27 percent) in such situations, per Basketball Reference.com tracking. In 2015, FiveThirtyEight.com found that James may be the most-clutch playoff shooter of his generation, and that study was done before he won the 2016 Finals against a 73-9 team.
The crazy thing is that James was knocked for so long for seemingly preferring a clutch assist over taking a clutch shot. But this model doesn't even look at assists -- just shots and turnovers. Looking at overall stats, James has a 40.9 PER in clutch situations in the past decade, which is eight points higher than any other player during that time.
1. Anthony Davis
New Orleans Pelicans
Clutch WPA: 2.87
Oh. So this is what happens when you have arms for days, a tight handle and a knockdown midrange jumper. Davis had a so-so year in the clutch department, but his track record has been nearly flawless since he joined the NBA ranks. His 2014-15 regular season ranks third best in the entire database, behind only Isaiah Thomas' 2016-17 and James' 2007-08 campaigns. Two of Davis' five seasons in the NBA already rank in the top 50 in a pool of 7,000 player-seasons in the database.
You want some numbers? The Brow is 19-of-35 (54.3 percent) on shots to tie or take the lead in the final minute for his career and less than half of those were assisted. If we zoom into the final 10 seconds of one-possession games, he owns a preposterous 67.7 true-shooting percentage (league average is 47.7 percent). That seems like a fluke until you realize he has a 61.2 true shooting percentage in the final five minutes of games within five and a 64.2 true shooting percentage in the final minute of one-possession games. The Brow is just cold-blooded.
It's breathtaking to consider that Davis -- in just five seasons -- already has accumulated more career clutch WPA than big-shot legends Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce. The buzzer-beating, double-clutch 3-pointer to beat the Thunder on their home floor in February 2015 remains one of the most ridiculous clutch shots in recent history. Sure, we'd like to see more in the postseason, but the dude is 24 years old. He's just getting started.
Here's a look at where some notable active and retired players land in terms of clutch winning probability added for the regular season, postseason and per-82 games.
Notable players based on clutch-WPA (Since 2003-04)
Player Reg clWPA Post clWPA Total clWPA Games clWPA82
Brandon Roy 8.61 0.56 9.17 341 2.21
Ray Allen 18.92 3.91 22.83 921 2.03
Kobe Bryant 18.1 3.00 21.1 973 1.78
Damian Lillard 6.33 1.38 7.71 427 1.48
Chris Bosh 15.62 1.79 17.41 982 1.45
Peja Stojakovic 8.53 0.35 8.88 519 1.40
Stephen Curry 9.48 0.84 10.32 642 1.32
Mehmet Okur 9.5 0.01 9.51 616 1.27
Chauncey Billups 10.59 1.24 11.83 797 1.22
Jason Terry 16.73 0.5 17.23 1156 1.22
Kawhi Leonard 5.70 1.25 6.95 483 1.18
Kyrie Irving 5.18 0.91 6.09 425 1.18
Rashard Lewis 9.54 1.72 11.26 806 1.15
Jamal Crawford 13.53 0.68 14.21 1087 1.07
JJ Redikk 8.29 0.27 8.56 778 0.90
Gilbert Arenas 3.82 1.05 4.87 454 0.88
Klay Thompson 5.38 0.18 5.56 538 0.85
Brent Barry 3.57 0.89 4.46 451 0.81
Paul George 3.00 1.56 4.56 513 0.73
Vince Carter 9.29 0.16 9.45 1109 0.70
DeMar DeRozan 4.78 -0.01 4.77 636 0.62
Carmelo Anthony 8.62 -0.86 7.76 1041 0.61
Blake Griffin 3.98 -0.27 3.71 520 0.59
Dwyane Wade 6.69 0.91 7.6 1087 0.57
Kevin Love 4.33 -0.23 4.10 611 0.55
Steve Nash 5.44 -0.71 4.73 819 0.47
Robert Horry 0.74 1.44 2.18 411 0.43
Gordon Hayward 2.26 0.17 2.43 529 0.38
Dwight Howard 2.41 1.88 4.29 1049 0.34
Kyle Lowry 1.82 0.65 2.47 765 0.26
Grant Hill 1.38 0.02 1.4 567 0.20
Tim Duncan 1.73 0.95 2.68 1118 0.20
Pau Gasol 0.71 1.46 2.17 1085 0.16
Allen Iverson 0.65 0.23 0.88 441 0.16
Draymond Green 0.44 0.21 0.65 470 0.11
Kevin Garnett 0.81 0.38 1.19 965 0.10
Mike Conley 0.96 -0.55 0.41 762 0.04
Rudy Gay 0.16 -0.19 -0.03 760 0.00
Richard Hamilton 0.77 -0.84 -0.07 740 -0.01
Goran Dragic -1.01 0.51 -0.50 677 -0.06
Shaquille O'Neal -0.69 -0.72 -1.41 545 -0.21
Russell Westbrook -1.45 -2.53 -3.98 755 -0.43
Derrick Rose -2.17 -0.57 -2.74 511 -0.44
Stephon Marbury -2.05 -0.28 -2.33 362 -0.53
Jason Kidd -4.17 -1.19 -5.36 831 -0.53
John Wall -4.5 -0.54 -5.04 531 -0.78
DeMarcus Cousins -5.07 -5.07 486 -0.86
Ricky Rubio -4.95 -4.95 353 -1.15
Antoine Walker -5.46 -0.6 -6.06 403 -1.23
Rajon Rondo -11.2 -1.15 -12.35 809 -1.25
Notable observations
- Where would Kobe Bryant rank on this list? If we included retired players, he'd finish 10th with a 1.78 clutch WPA score. His total clutch WPA would rank fourth behind James, Nowitzki and Ray Allen. What's holding Bryant back? A whole lot of misses. He fired up 1,063 misses in the final five minutes of games within five while no one else since 1997 tallied more than 850. His field goal percentage in those moments was a below-average 39.5 and same goes for shots in the final 10 seconds of one-possession games (27.2 percent vs. league-average 27.7 percent). What Bryant has on everybody is sheer number of attempts. For Bryant fans, that's a feature of the Bryant system. For others? It's a bug.
- If there's one trend that pops out on the 50 notables list, it's that poor-shooting point guards clog the bottom. That makes some sense, but this model might be overly harsh on these guys. Often times, they're forced to fire up last-second shots as the primary ball handler. But then again, some of those guys drain the clock precisely so they can take that shot. And as a reminder, this does not factor in clutch passes or clutch assists, which hurts guys like Rajon Rondo, who has shot just 2-of-16 in the final 10 seconds of one-possession games along with 6-of-11 from the line.
- Numbers and the eye-test agree: Stephen Curry didn't have as many magical moments this season as he did last. He finished No. 1 overall in clutch WPA in 2015-16 but fell to 70th this past season alongside Durant, crystalizing in that infamous moment in the Memphis game early this season. As perhaps the best shooter ever, you'd expect him to be higher on this list that values bucket-getting, but this model considers one key factor: turnovers. Maybe no more gratuitous behind-the-back passes in Finals games?
- Kawhi Leonard checks in at 19th among all active players, but why isn't he higher? Over the past two seasons, Leonard generated the third-highest total clutch WPA (6.14) among all players, but he just didn't compile enough during his days as a role player. Leonard generated just 1.33 clutch WPA total in his previous four seasons as he ceded big shots to others on the team. That's not the case anymore.
- If you look up Brandon Roy's profile on Basketball-Reference, you'll see one of his listed nicknames is "Daggers," which is amazing and accurate. He specialized in daggers throughout his too-short career. If we included all players since 2003-04, he would have placed third on this list just behind Davis and James. His 2008-09 season was mind-boggling: He shot 9-of-16 (56.3 percent) on shots to tie or go ahead in the final minute. Living legend.
- Ray Allen deserves more pub for being a clutch shooter. If this were a championship probability model, he might be off the charts thanks to his 2013 Finals shot that helped force a Game 7.
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ReturnOfJudah
Veteran
Who's living up to the hype on the AAU circuit?
With the spring evaluation period over in the world of college basketball recruiting and every major AAU league about halfway through the season, it's a good time to take a look at each circuit's best performers from an advanced statistics perspective.
Some of those below are among the nation's most hyped players in the 2018 class, while others are just beginning to emerge. Let's take a look at three of the top performers in each major AAU league from a statistical perspective and dive into what has made them stand out.
(We limited our study in the Under Armour and Adidas circuits to those who played at least 100 minutes, and in the Nike circuit to those who played 200 minutes.)
Nike Elite Youth Basketball League
Alex Lomax, PG, 5-11, 189, East/Memphis, TN -- unranked in ESPN 60
The Team Penny point guard has been a surprise, putting up 13.0 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while leading his team to an 8-4 start in the EYBL. Lomax's box plus/minus rating of 12.9 is seventh in the league, and while his usage rate is pedestrian at 16.1 percent, he has been efficient. Lomax's turnover percentage is right in the middle of the pack, and his assist percentage is in the 95th percentile of the league. Mix in above-average rebounding percentages on both sides of the court (12 percent on offensive rebounds, 25 percent on defensive) alongside a 60.5 percent true shooting percentage and this smallish point guard is set to have a huge summer.
Simisola shyttu, PF, 6-8, 210, Vermont Academy/Burlington, Ontario -- No. 9 in ESPN 60
This versatile Canadian forward has been putting up monster numbers through three sessions. Averaging 20.7 points, 10.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game, shyttu has been one half of the duo leading CIA Bounce (the other half: wing Ignas Brazdeikis). shyttu's 12.6 box plus/minus rating is eighth in the league, right behind Alex Lomax. His offensive rebound percentage of 22.9 percent and defensive rebound percentage of 39.2 percent are fourth and sixth in the league, respectively. When you combine that with a 30.8 percent assist rate, you get an extremely productive player.
Cameron Reddish, SF, 6-7, 199, Westtown School/Norristown, PA -- No. 4 in ESPN 60
To the surprise of no one, the top-five prospect Reddish is leading Team Final in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks per game. His 12.3 box plus/minus rating has him as the 10th-best player in the league, while on defense, his rebound and block percentages are sixth and seventh in the league, respectively. When you factor in his 52.3 percent usage rate, you can look past Reddish's pedestrian outside shooting numbers and understand the future is bright for him.
Under Armour Association
Devon Dotson, PG, 6-2, 175, Providence Day/Charlotte, NC -- No. 34 in ESPN 60
The Team Charlotte point guard has arguably been the most valuable player on the Under Armour circuit, posting the best box plus/minus rating at 26.2. Leading his team in points, assists and steals while also ranking second in rebounding speaks to Dotson's high usage rate (31.0 percent), which is sixth in the league. While his assist-to-turnover ratio could be better, he's still shooting efficiently from the field and posting a 63.7 percent true shooting percentage.
Silvio De Sousa, PF, 6-8, 240, IMG Academy/Bradenton, FL -- No. 20 in ESPN 60
De Sousa's 21.3 box plus/minus rating, second best on the circuit, is no surprise given his 21.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game for the Florida Vipers. A monster on the offensive glass, he has posted the fourth-best offensive rebounding percentage at 16.1. De Sousa has made 69.6 percent of his two-point shots and is getting to the line 4.4 times a game.
Jahvon Quinerly, PG, 6-1, 160, Hudson Catholic/Jersey City, NJ -- No. 22 in ESPN 60
The best player on the best team in UAA's "Hungry" conference' (the circuit is divided into Hungry and Humble divisions), Quinerly is set to have a huge summer after dominating the spring period. The Jersey native boasted a league-best 45.7 assist percentage alongside a very good 13.2 turnover percentage. When he shot the ball, Quinerly had a league best 73.7 true shooting percentage while putting up 19.0 points per game. With shooting splits of 60-52-90 (FG%-3P%-FT%), Quinerly qualifies for the famous 50-40-90 club -- the standard by which good shooters are measured at the higher levels.
Adidas Uprising Gold Series
Nassir Little, SF, 6-6, 210, Orlando Christian Prep/Jacksonville, FL -- No. 51 in ESPN 60
Little possesses both a college-ready frame and college-ready game. He leads his team, 1 Family, in points, rebounds and steals, and his box plus/minus rating of 18.3 is in the 94th percentile of the league. Little does most of his damage in the paint, shooting 61.7 percent on 2-point shots while shooting only 26.9 percent from 3-point land. With more than 20 offers already, Little's stock can be expected to go even higher this summer.
Immanuel Quickley, PG, 6-3, 180, John Carroll/Bel Air, MD -- No. 12 in ESPN 60
This combo guard has been lights out from 3, making 41.5 percent of his attempts, and his 10.5 net rating and 15.6 box plus/minus rating both put him at the top of the league. If he can lower his turnover rate (currently at 16.0 percent) and bump up his assist rate (19.9 percent), Quickley could be considered the complete package at the point guard position.
Emmanuel Akot, SF, 6-6, 185, Wasatch Academy (Utah)/Winnipeg, Manitoba -- No. 21 in ESPN 60
Already committed to Arizona, Akot has confirmed his talents while playing for the Exum Elite Utah Prospects. He's been on fire from deep, making 47.2 percent of his 3-point attempts. With a box plus/minus rating of 15.2 and a net rating of 12.1, Akot also is one of the top players in the league. His usage rate of 32.4 percent is in the 94th percentile, and he has carried his team to a seventh-place showing in the overall standings.
5-on-5 predictions: Will LeBron and the Cavs repeat against Warriors?
What would another title mean for the Cavaliers or the Warriors? What's the most important thing to watch for each team?
Our 5-on-5 crew previews the NBA Finals and predicts the winner.
1. What's the most important thing to watch for the Cavaliers in the Finals?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Can the Cavs play championship-caliber defense? This is still the critical question for me. On the one hand, after letting the Pacers score at will, the Cavs held Toronto and Boston far below their scoring norms. On the other hand, Toronto and Boston were each missing their All-Star point guards for most of the series.
Get this: If you exclude the injured Kyle Lowry and Isaiah Thomas, the Cavs have yet to face a top-25 offensive player by real plus-minus (RPM) yet this postseason. The Warriors have three in their starting lineup.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: How long the Cavs can get away with Kevin Love on the floor. The Warriors will employ 5-out lineups that will basically force Cleveland to have a competent perimeter defender at every position, which would probably render Love's presence unmanageable. And before any of you point out that Finals-clinching defensive play, let me remind you that just because Shaquille O'Neal has one made 3-pointer in his career doesn't mean you can then rely on him for perimeter shooting.
Chris Herring, FiveThirtyEight/ESPN.com: How does this team's defense -- which was awful for the majority of the season -- go about containing what might be the most explosive, unusual offense in NBA history? And how much will LeBron James' energy be impacted by having to guard Kevin Durant as opposed to Harrison Barnes?
We've been asking for months whether Cleveland could truly flip the switch after a poor end to the regular season. If they defend well at this stage, and win, it will mark the last time we ever ask that question.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Can they find good shots early in the shot clock against this elite Warriors defense? The San Antonio Spurs, once without Kawhi Leonard, often had trouble finding a shot they liked and then had to pull the trigger on a contested off-balance heave with little time left on the clock. The Cavs need to create early and, better yet, capitalize on the Warriors' live-ball turnovers.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Whether Kevin Love can stay on the court when the Warriors go small. While Richard Jefferson played an important role in last year's Finals, Cleveland needs Love on the court to achieve its full potential -- especially coming off an outstanding series against the Celtics. Yet this year's version of Golden State's Death Lineup offers few hiding spots, which could make Love difficult to play.
2. What's the most important thing to watch for the Warriors in the Finals?
Herring: How they deal with a team that might actually challenge them. Specifically, watch the short stints in the second quarter when the Warriors opt to rest Stephen Curry and Durant simultaneously. In the lead-up to the Finals, the Dubs slaughtered playoff opponents by 31.2, 20.5 and 19.8 points per 100 plays in the first, third and fourth periods. By contrast, Golden State got outscored by 5.5 points per 100 plays in second quarters.
Elhassan: Can Draymond Green be the same dynamo he was a year ago? When you ask how to stop the Warriors, it's kind of a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario -- but I believe limiting Green is a huge step toward achieving that improbable goal. As the team's main playmaker on the offensive end and premier defensive weapon, he's got the power to make this series shift on both ends of the floor.
Haberstroh: Sure, Kevin Durant is the game-changer this time around, but I'm still looking at Stephen Curry here. Curry was awful by his standards last Finals, dealing with what seemed to be a gimpy knee. Last postseason, his player efficiency rating (PER) fell from 29.1 in the conference semifinals to 24.1 in the conference finals to 16.3 in the Finals.
Dovetailing with Kevin Pelton's great story on pull-up 3s, I'll be paying close attention Curry's ability to get his signature transition 3, something that all but disappeared once he came back from the strained MCL. Last year he made three such shots during the entire Finals -- no more than LeBron James and Kyrie Irving did.
To me, hitting those is a sign that Curry is feeling like himself. So far, he's averaging one per game this postseason. Can Steph keep doing Steph things?
Engelmann: Their health is incredibly important. Zaza Pachulia missed two playoff games because of heel problems, and Andre Iguodala missed a game with knee soreness. These might not be issues that simply disappear with 10 days of rest.
JaVale McGee, who would replace Pachulia, may be a better fit on offense, but he will almost certainly have his issues defensively -- he's known for not boxing out rebounds, something that could be fatal against Cavs big man Tristan Thompson. Iguodala is still one of the best wing defenders in the league, if not the best. The Warriors need him if they want to have a chance of slowing down LeBron.
Pelton: I feel like I've said this every series, but how they execute down the stretch of close games -- assuming they finally play a few in the Finals. This is the test for which Golden State has been preparing -- and not always successfully -- since adding Durant via free agency last summer.
3. If the Cavs win, that means ...
Elhassan: For LeBron, it means making a giant step toward legitimate Michael Jordan comparisons. To beat a team that is not only greater than his, but among the very greatest of all time, without the benefit of timely injury or suspensions, would be an accomplishment that few of the all-time greats ever achieved. For my money, a Cavs win absent of caveats would amount to the greatest upset in the history of basketball -- even greater than beating the 73-win team with the unanimous MVP after being down 3-1 in the series.
For the Warriors, a loss shouldn't mean as much -- after all, they've been to the Finals three years running and that doesn't figure to stop anytime soon. However, to lose twice despite being heavy favorites could become a mental block, similar to what happened to the Lakers whenever they played the Celtics prior to 1985, when they finally beat them.
Pelton: This is one of the great playoff runs of all time. These Cavs would have a better record than last year's champions. They will have taken down a better version of the Warriors in the Finals. Surely, it would change how fans and the media discuss LeBron James' place in history, though I don't think he should need the validation.
Haberstroh: "LeBron James is the greatest player in NBA history" will no longer be a hot take. It might even become the conventional wisdom. Last Finals, he beat a 73-9 Warriors squad. Add Kevin freakin' Durant to that team, watch them go 12-0 heading into the Finals and James still beats them? It'd be unbelievable.
To understand the cards stacked against LeBron, consider that Michael Jordan never faced a 65-win team in the Finals. James has faced one in each of the past three Finals. And every team Jordan faced in the Finals had lost at least three games en route to the Finals. James beating an undefeated Warriors team? It could be the GOAT trump card in the eyes of many.
Engelmann: We'd have to think about sliding Michael Jordan down to the No. 2 spot on the GOAT list. Yes, Jordan still has more titles and the superior Finals record at 6-0. LeBron, though, has had lesser teammates and -- most importantly -- has had to beat a team that's vastly superior to those Jordan had to face -- twice in a row.
Herring: Many things. No more questioning LeBron's teams' late-season coasting. Another disappointing ending for a Warriors team that deservedly enters the series as a heavy favorite, particularly after adding Durant. Perhaps most obviously: It adds more fuel to LeBron's fire about potentially being the best player of all time. Some would argue, with two consecutive wins over a team this heavily favored, that he'd deserve that title, even with fewer titles than Michael Jordan has to his name.
4. If the Warriors win, that means ...
Pelton: They cement their place as one of the greatest teams in NBA history. Even if this series goes seven games, the Warriors' 16-3 record would be the best since the first round of the playoffs expanded to best-of-seven in 2003. Coming on the heels of a regular season in which Golden State's point differential was the fourth-best in league history, that would make this an all-time great team.
Engelmann: If they waltz through the Finals -- in five games or less -- we'll probably see the NBA taking additional measures against the formation of superteams. The league needs to make the playoffs more exciting and increase the number of playoff games by upping the parity. Also, Durant and Curry have the chance to be mentioned among the all-time greats, especially if either wins Finals MVP.
Herring: The most talented team won the title. Durant adds "NBA champion" to his résumé, even if many fans won't give him full credit for the accomplishment, given his choice to leave a contender to join a powerhouse like Golden State. If things go right for this club, this should be the first of a handful of titles the Warriors win with this improved core of players. They'd also be well on their way to making the case as perhaps the greatest team we've ever seen over a five-year span.
Haberstroh: Maybe the rings bubble will finally burst. Rings as legacy currency has seen enormous inflation lately, and I wonder if we'd reach a breaking point.
After seeing a perennial MVP candidate (Durant) leave in his prime to join a juggernaut, would NBA commentators try to diminish the value of this particular ring? In turn, would they start cheering even louder for other players like Russell Westbrook to not "chase" rings? Freedom of movement for NBA players every summer has made the legacy conversation much more interesting.
Elhassan: They've fulfilled the "light-years ahead" prophecy and have probably kicked off an era of success that will surpass the Heat of the 2010s, the Lakers of the 2000s and the Spurs of whatever decade you want to ascribe to them.
With Curry and Durant set to be free agents this summer, long-term commitments will keep their core together in their prime for the foreseeable future. And with the new CBA making it even more difficult for teams to accumulate elite talent, it's going to be tough to see someone build a legitimate rival without huge financial sacrifices being made by players.
What would another title mean for the Cavaliers or the Warriors? What's the most important thing to watch for each team?
Our 5-on-5 crew previews the NBA Finals and predicts the winner.
1. What's the most important thing to watch for the Cavaliers in the Finals?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Can the Cavs play championship-caliber defense? This is still the critical question for me. On the one hand, after letting the Pacers score at will, the Cavs held Toronto and Boston far below their scoring norms. On the other hand, Toronto and Boston were each missing their All-Star point guards for most of the series.
Get this: If you exclude the injured Kyle Lowry and Isaiah Thomas, the Cavs have yet to face a top-25 offensive player by real plus-minus (RPM) yet this postseason. The Warriors have three in their starting lineup.
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: How long the Cavs can get away with Kevin Love on the floor. The Warriors will employ 5-out lineups that will basically force Cleveland to have a competent perimeter defender at every position, which would probably render Love's presence unmanageable. And before any of you point out that Finals-clinching defensive play, let me remind you that just because Shaquille O'Neal has one made 3-pointer in his career doesn't mean you can then rely on him for perimeter shooting.
Chris Herring, FiveThirtyEight/ESPN.com: How does this team's defense -- which was awful for the majority of the season -- go about containing what might be the most explosive, unusual offense in NBA history? And how much will LeBron James' energy be impacted by having to guard Kevin Durant as opposed to Harrison Barnes?
We've been asking for months whether Cleveland could truly flip the switch after a poor end to the regular season. If they defend well at this stage, and win, it will mark the last time we ever ask that question.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Can they find good shots early in the shot clock against this elite Warriors defense? The San Antonio Spurs, once without Kawhi Leonard, often had trouble finding a shot they liked and then had to pull the trigger on a contested off-balance heave with little time left on the clock. The Cavs need to create early and, better yet, capitalize on the Warriors' live-ball turnovers.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Whether Kevin Love can stay on the court when the Warriors go small. While Richard Jefferson played an important role in last year's Finals, Cleveland needs Love on the court to achieve its full potential -- especially coming off an outstanding series against the Celtics. Yet this year's version of Golden State's Death Lineup offers few hiding spots, which could make Love difficult to play.
2. What's the most important thing to watch for the Warriors in the Finals?
Herring: How they deal with a team that might actually challenge them. Specifically, watch the short stints in the second quarter when the Warriors opt to rest Stephen Curry and Durant simultaneously. In the lead-up to the Finals, the Dubs slaughtered playoff opponents by 31.2, 20.5 and 19.8 points per 100 plays in the first, third and fourth periods. By contrast, Golden State got outscored by 5.5 points per 100 plays in second quarters.
Elhassan: Can Draymond Green be the same dynamo he was a year ago? When you ask how to stop the Warriors, it's kind of a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario -- but I believe limiting Green is a huge step toward achieving that improbable goal. As the team's main playmaker on the offensive end and premier defensive weapon, he's got the power to make this series shift on both ends of the floor.
Haberstroh: Sure, Kevin Durant is the game-changer this time around, but I'm still looking at Stephen Curry here. Curry was awful by his standards last Finals, dealing with what seemed to be a gimpy knee. Last postseason, his player efficiency rating (PER) fell from 29.1 in the conference semifinals to 24.1 in the conference finals to 16.3 in the Finals.
Dovetailing with Kevin Pelton's great story on pull-up 3s, I'll be paying close attention Curry's ability to get his signature transition 3, something that all but disappeared once he came back from the strained MCL. Last year he made three such shots during the entire Finals -- no more than LeBron James and Kyrie Irving did.
To me, hitting those is a sign that Curry is feeling like himself. So far, he's averaging one per game this postseason. Can Steph keep doing Steph things?
Engelmann: Their health is incredibly important. Zaza Pachulia missed two playoff games because of heel problems, and Andre Iguodala missed a game with knee soreness. These might not be issues that simply disappear with 10 days of rest.
JaVale McGee, who would replace Pachulia, may be a better fit on offense, but he will almost certainly have his issues defensively -- he's known for not boxing out rebounds, something that could be fatal against Cavs big man Tristan Thompson. Iguodala is still one of the best wing defenders in the league, if not the best. The Warriors need him if they want to have a chance of slowing down LeBron.
Pelton: I feel like I've said this every series, but how they execute down the stretch of close games -- assuming they finally play a few in the Finals. This is the test for which Golden State has been preparing -- and not always successfully -- since adding Durant via free agency last summer.
3. If the Cavs win, that means ...
Elhassan: For LeBron, it means making a giant step toward legitimate Michael Jordan comparisons. To beat a team that is not only greater than his, but among the very greatest of all time, without the benefit of timely injury or suspensions, would be an accomplishment that few of the all-time greats ever achieved. For my money, a Cavs win absent of caveats would amount to the greatest upset in the history of basketball -- even greater than beating the 73-win team with the unanimous MVP after being down 3-1 in the series.
For the Warriors, a loss shouldn't mean as much -- after all, they've been to the Finals three years running and that doesn't figure to stop anytime soon. However, to lose twice despite being heavy favorites could become a mental block, similar to what happened to the Lakers whenever they played the Celtics prior to 1985, when they finally beat them.
Pelton: This is one of the great playoff runs of all time. These Cavs would have a better record than last year's champions. They will have taken down a better version of the Warriors in the Finals. Surely, it would change how fans and the media discuss LeBron James' place in history, though I don't think he should need the validation.
Haberstroh: "LeBron James is the greatest player in NBA history" will no longer be a hot take. It might even become the conventional wisdom. Last Finals, he beat a 73-9 Warriors squad. Add Kevin freakin' Durant to that team, watch them go 12-0 heading into the Finals and James still beats them? It'd be unbelievable.
To understand the cards stacked against LeBron, consider that Michael Jordan never faced a 65-win team in the Finals. James has faced one in each of the past three Finals. And every team Jordan faced in the Finals had lost at least three games en route to the Finals. James beating an undefeated Warriors team? It could be the GOAT trump card in the eyes of many.
Engelmann: We'd have to think about sliding Michael Jordan down to the No. 2 spot on the GOAT list. Yes, Jordan still has more titles and the superior Finals record at 6-0. LeBron, though, has had lesser teammates and -- most importantly -- has had to beat a team that's vastly superior to those Jordan had to face -- twice in a row.
Herring: Many things. No more questioning LeBron's teams' late-season coasting. Another disappointing ending for a Warriors team that deservedly enters the series as a heavy favorite, particularly after adding Durant. Perhaps most obviously: It adds more fuel to LeBron's fire about potentially being the best player of all time. Some would argue, with two consecutive wins over a team this heavily favored, that he'd deserve that title, even with fewer titles than Michael Jordan has to his name.
4. If the Warriors win, that means ...
Pelton: They cement their place as one of the greatest teams in NBA history. Even if this series goes seven games, the Warriors' 16-3 record would be the best since the first round of the playoffs expanded to best-of-seven in 2003. Coming on the heels of a regular season in which Golden State's point differential was the fourth-best in league history, that would make this an all-time great team.
Engelmann: If they waltz through the Finals -- in five games or less -- we'll probably see the NBA taking additional measures against the formation of superteams. The league needs to make the playoffs more exciting and increase the number of playoff games by upping the parity. Also, Durant and Curry have the chance to be mentioned among the all-time greats, especially if either wins Finals MVP.
Herring: The most talented team won the title. Durant adds "NBA champion" to his résumé, even if many fans won't give him full credit for the accomplishment, given his choice to leave a contender to join a powerhouse like Golden State. If things go right for this club, this should be the first of a handful of titles the Warriors win with this improved core of players. They'd also be well on their way to making the case as perhaps the greatest team we've ever seen over a five-year span.
Haberstroh: Maybe the rings bubble will finally burst. Rings as legacy currency has seen enormous inflation lately, and I wonder if we'd reach a breaking point.
After seeing a perennial MVP candidate (Durant) leave in his prime to join a juggernaut, would NBA commentators try to diminish the value of this particular ring? In turn, would they start cheering even louder for other players like Russell Westbrook to not "chase" rings? Freedom of movement for NBA players every summer has made the legacy conversation much more interesting.
Elhassan: They've fulfilled the "light-years ahead" prophecy and have probably kicked off an era of success that will surpass the Heat of the 2010s, the Lakers of the 2000s and the Spurs of whatever decade you want to ascribe to them.
With Curry and Durant set to be free agents this summer, long-term commitments will keep their core together in their prime for the foreseeable future. And with the new CBA making it even more difficult for teams to accumulate elite talent, it's going to be tough to see someone build a legitimate rival without huge financial sacrifices being made by players.
5. Who wins the series, and in how many games?
Haberstroh: Warriors in 5. Two big differences from last year's Finals: Stephen Curry is rested and healthy; Kevin Durant is a Warrior. I still think Golden State would have won in five in last year's Finals if Draymond Green didn't get suspended in Game 5. This time around, the Cavs' offense is historically good, but I don't see the defense holding up its end of the bargain. The Warriors are just too good on both ends.
Herring: Warriors in 6. I think the Cavaliers can get a victory early in the series, perhaps Game 1, by simply catching the Warriors off guard and challenging them in a way they haven't seen (aside from the first game of the Spurs matchup).
But similar to last year -- when Draymond Green got suspended, Andrew Bogut got hurt, Harrison Barnes went ice cold over the last five games and Festus Ezeli basically went missing -- a lot would have to go wrong for Cleveland to win this. LeBron and Kyrie are capable of going supernova again. I just don't see it as likely.
Elhassan: Warriors in 5. The talent gap is tremendous, and Golden State doesn't just beat you on talent. The Warriors are deeper, execute almost flawlessly on both ends of the floor and have a huge motivator carrying them in the form of last year's disappointment.
Most importantly, the Warriors are a far superior defensive team, and that defensive excellence and versatility will be the decider, leading to Green redeeming himself with a Finals MVP performance for playmaking and timely shooting, but mostly for his efforts on the defensive end.
Engelmann: Warriors in 5. The Cavaliers are a great team and feature the best basketball player on the planet. But their 12-1 playoff record is a little misleading, as the Eastern Conference playoffs are just so much easier. After losing last year's Finals, I think the Warriors are hungry, besides being the better team and having home-court advantage.
Pelton: Warriors in 5. Given the importance of home-court advantage, the higher seed winning the series is most likely in either five or seven games. I find five to be a bit more likely than seven for this matchup
Haberstroh: Warriors in 5. Two big differences from last year's Finals: Stephen Curry is rested and healthy; Kevin Durant is a Warrior. I still think Golden State would have won in five in last year's Finals if Draymond Green didn't get suspended in Game 5. This time around, the Cavs' offense is historically good, but I don't see the defense holding up its end of the bargain. The Warriors are just too good on both ends.
Herring: Warriors in 6. I think the Cavaliers can get a victory early in the series, perhaps Game 1, by simply catching the Warriors off guard and challenging them in a way they haven't seen (aside from the first game of the Spurs matchup).
But similar to last year -- when Draymond Green got suspended, Andrew Bogut got hurt, Harrison Barnes went ice cold over the last five games and Festus Ezeli basically went missing -- a lot would have to go wrong for Cleveland to win this. LeBron and Kyrie are capable of going supernova again. I just don't see it as likely.
Elhassan: Warriors in 5. The talent gap is tremendous, and Golden State doesn't just beat you on talent. The Warriors are deeper, execute almost flawlessly on both ends of the floor and have a huge motivator carrying them in the form of last year's disappointment.
Most importantly, the Warriors are a far superior defensive team, and that defensive excellence and versatility will be the decider, leading to Green redeeming himself with a Finals MVP performance for playmaking and timely shooting, but mostly for his efforts on the defensive end.
Engelmann: Warriors in 5. The Cavaliers are a great team and feature the best basketball player on the planet. But their 12-1 playoff record is a little misleading, as the Eastern Conference playoffs are just so much easier. After losing last year's Finals, I think the Warriors are hungry, besides being the better team and having home-court advantage.
Pelton: Warriors in 5. Given the importance of home-court advantage, the higher seed winning the series is most likely in either five or seven games. I find five to be a bit more likely than seven for this matchup
young @Skooby the legend, when you have time, if you could.
Ranking baseball's best defensive outfielders
Who are baseball's best defensive infielders?
Ranking baseball's best defensive outfielders
Who are baseball's best defensive infielders?
Ranking baseball's best defensive outfielders
Last week, I ranked the top 10 defensive infielders in baseball. This week it's time to hit the outfield. Interestingly, the outfield has generated more disagreements between the Gold Glove voters and modern defensive statistics such as Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) than the infield has. Only four of my top 10 ranked outfielders has a Gold Glove award to his name.
This is my attempt to rank the best defensive outfielders based on my synthesis of various defensive metrics, my observations and the research we have done into the relative value of the three outfield positions. And for that last reason, no full-time left fielders made the list. In previous seasons, left fielders such as Alex Gordon and Starling Marte would have had a chance, but by and large teams still try to hide hitters in left field, and even the best defensive left fielders rarely excel when they try to play the more difficult outfield positions.
It will be interesting to see what the Royals decide to do when Cain becomes a free agent this offseason, assuming they don't trade him beforehand. On one hand, defensive production has typically been underpaid in free agency relative to offensive production, so Cain might be more affordable for a team that has traditionally been conservative with its free-agent dollars. But on the other hand, the Royals might be reluctant to hand out a long-term deal to a 31-year-old player whose skill set relies heavily on speed.
MLB's most consistent top gloves
Most consecutive seasons with 10+ DRS at a position, 2003-16.
Player Pos Seasons Streak
Jason Heyward RF 2010-2016 7
Chase Utley 2B 2005-2010 6
Andrelton Simmons SS 2012-2016 5
Adrian Gonzalez 1B 2011-2015 5
Jonathan Lucroy C 2010-2014 5
Adrian Beltre 3B 2008-2012 5
Albert Pujols 1B 2005-2009 5
Adam Everett SS 2003-2007 5
Orlando Hudson 2B 2003-2007 5
Heyward has the range of a center fielder, and his nine career runs saved in just 477 ⅓ innings there suggest he could be one of that position's best defenders, too. Still, it's hard to disagree with the logic of keeping Heyward in right field, where he has consistently excelled.
MLB's fleetest feet at swiping second
Fastest average stolen base times of second base, 2015-17.
Player Avg. SB Time (sec)
Billy Hamilton 3.48
Jarrod Dyson 3.50
Rajai Davis 3.52
Keon Broxton 3.53
Billy Burns 3.54
preeminent speedster is also an exceptional defender. Hamilton has the fastest average stolen base time among regular players in baseball, and he puts those wheels to good use by ranging to make plays in center field.
What may be more of a surprise is that Hamilton excels at all aspects of outfield defense. The former shortstop also has an excellent throwing arm and has made the second-most good fielding plays among center fielders since 2015, which speaks well to his route-running, hands and instincts.
The major differentiator between Cain and Dyson is Dyson's above-average throwing arm. But despite his tools, Dyson has long been underappreciated, no doubt because of his inconsistent playing time. That could change this season now that Dyson is more or less the Mariners' everyday center fielder. Regardless of whether his playing time remains consistent, Dyson deserves recognition as one of the games' best defenders. Since his debut in 2010, only two regular center fielders have more runs saved on a per-inning basis at the position: Juan Lagares, whose injuries cost him a spot on this list, and the player that I ranked No. 1.
As with many of the other players on this list, Buxton has exceptional speed that helps him reach balls most center fielders can't -- he actually has more runs saved due to range (nine) than any other center fielder this year. Buxton is also fearless in the field. He made the likely defensive play of the year when he crashed into the wall in right-center field following a full sprint to rob Carlos Santana on May 14. That play evoked memories of Ken Griffey Jr. in his prime, and Buxton has made a number of other spectacular diving and wall-crashing catches just this year.
5. Mookie Betts, RF, Boston Red Sox: Betts led all players at any position with his 32 runs saved in right field in 2016, and any concern that his incredible total represented a one-year fluke has been quickly allayed so far this season since he has already saved another 10 runs. Betts is athletic, but he also demonstrates how much preparation and strategy can mean to defensive success.
Betts was able to save such a high number of runs last year because he saved more plays on deep balls -- rating 15 plays above average -- than he did on medium and shallow balls, on which he was five plays above average on each. Those deep outs tend to save doubles and triples, whereas shallow outs tend to save singles, and the relative difference in run impact of those types of catches can really add up over the course of a season. That's one big reason that a Gold Glove winner like Betts can rank so well in DRS while some other recent Gold Glove winners like Adam Jones have typically been closer to the middle of the pack in DRS.
Most outfield kills from center, 2016-17
Player OF Kills
Jackie Bradley Jr. 11
Odubel Herrera 9
Carlos Gomez 9
Ender Inciarte 9
Billy Hamilton 8
Kevin Kiermaier 8
is not even the best outfielder on his own team. That title belongs to the Red Sox's center fielder. Betts has Bradley beat definitively in foot speed -- his 3.59-second average stolen base time is more than a tenth of a second faster than Bradley's (3.71) -- but Bradley makes up for that with otherworldly instincts, exceptional route running and a powerful throwing arm.
Since the start of 2016, Bradley has thrown out 11 baserunners without a relay man, or plays which Baseball Info Solutions calls outfield kills. Bradley's total is the most among all center fielders over the time frame, and it has helped Bradley save the Red Sox seven runs with his throwing arm alone.
Kiermaier is a special player, which is probably best illustrated by comparing his range to typical center fielders. The following diagram shows the field area in which both Kiermaier and an average center fielder make more plays than they miss. Kiermaier has a significant edge in all directions.
He's just 27, but Kiermaier already has the fifth-most career defensive runs saved among outfielders in the era of recorded DRS (2003-present). If he can maintain this pace for several more seasons, he'll make a strong case for the best defensive outfielder of the new millennium.
Scott Spratt is a research analyst for Baseball Info Solutions. You can follow him on Twitter (@Scott_Spratt).
Who are baseball's best defensive infielders?
Baseball is riding an incredible wave of young talent these days, which makes it more difficult than ever to try to identify and rank its best players, even in terms of specific skills such as defense. At Baseball Info Solutions, we have these arguments every day, and thanks to our history of research in defensive analytics, we have plenty of ammunition to support our arguments.
As we head into the summer, it seems to be the perfect time to bring those debates to the masses. What follows is my best attempt to distill everything I know and have learned about defense into a ranking of the best 10 defensive infielders in baseball today. I am not following a specific formula to make these rankings, but I am synthesizing player valuation metrics such as defensive runs saved (DRS), skill-specific metrics, research into the relative difficulty of the individual infield positions (which in this case includes first base, second base, third base and shortstop) and my own observations and instincts.
In the end, I decided that Goldschmidt deserved the 10th spot. I do not think that his good range numbers mean he could play anywhere else in the infield, but he excels at many of the skills specific to playing first. In particular, he's the best first baseman at handling poor throws from other infielders. His 93.2 percent scoop rate on bad throws is 1.3 percent better than any other active regular, and he's saved nearly five runs since 2015 with that skill alone.
Who's picking it at first base?
Best scoop rate on poor throws among active regular first basemen, 2015-17
Player Scoops Mishandles Scoop Rate Scoop Runs Saved
Paul Goldschmidt 68 5 93.2% 4.6
Joe Mauer 57 5 91.9% 3.1
Yonder Alonso 64 6 91.4% 4.1
Lucas Duda 61 6 91.0% 2.7
Justin Smoak 36 4 90.0% 1.6
Even if that happened, one second baseman would remain near the top. Much like Chase Utley did in the 2000s, Kinsler has quietly dominated at second base defensively in the past decade. Most impressive is the fact that Kinsler has done his best work since turning 30. He has finished each of the past three seasons as the top-ranked second baseman in DRS. Albert Pujols (1B, 2005-07) and Andrelton Simmons (SS, 2013-15) are the only other players who have led their position in DRS in three consecutive seasons in the DRS era (2003-present). Kinsler is ranked first in DRS among second basemen in 2017 -- if he can finish the year that way, he would be the first player to accomplish such a feat in four straight seasons.
Since then, Machado has settled into the excellent, but not all-time-great range of about 10-15 runs saved per season. As you would expect for a former (and perhaps future) shortstop, Machado saves most of his runs with his range. Machado played some shortstop in 2016 when J.J. Hardy was injured and saved the Orioles three runs in 380 innings, a rate that suggests he would be one of the best defensive shortstops if he moved to that position down the road.
However, despite having all of the physical tools, Lindor does make some mistakes. In the majors, Lindor has been four runs below average because of his misplays, most of which are related to poor throws and failed catches and tags.
6. Javier Baez, 2B, Chicago Cubs: If you had to pick one primary position for Baez, you'd pick second base. Baez could make a compelling case to be in the top 10 if he simply played second base every day. Last year, he finished tied for third at the position with 11 runs saved, just one run behind the leaders, Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia, but Baez did that in only 383 innings at the position, just a quarter of the time those other players had to accumulate their numbers.
However, the thing that really separates Baez is his defensive versatility. He doesn't play only second base well - he also plays third and shortstop well, and he even has a handful of productive innings at first base, left and right field. DRS does not give a fielder any extra credit for handling multiple positions, but his flexibility helps the Cubs mix and match players with specific weaknesses like Kyle Schwarber (defensively) and Jason Heyward (offensively).
Defensive versatility is clearly an important skill, but few players can claim to provide it consistently in their careers. In the DRS era, there are only three players with five or more DRS at second base, third base and shortstop.
The Best Super-Utility Infielders, 2003-17
Comparing Javier Baez to players with 5+ DRS at 2B, SS and 3B since 2003.
Player 2B innings 3B innings SS innings 2B DRS 3B DRS SS DRS
Craig Counsell 2153.2 1459 2951.1 45 22 33
Nick Punto 2798.1 2492.1 2554.1 23 40 21
Juan Uribe 1742 5037 5842.2 8 43 13
Javier Baez 901 435.2 554 10 5 0
Baez has not yet joined that list, but he has a real chance to if he continues to roam. Meanwhile, I wouldn't be too surprised to see him land a full-time shortstop position in the future, which his defensive talents likely warrant, either because of a trade or free agency.
However, Crawford continues to finish at or near the top of the runs saved leaderboard thanks to a good throwing arm and a variety of other subtle skills that really add up. Many of those subtle skills are tied to turning double plays. He is an excellent receiver of throws around the bag and a quick pivot man, and he consistently makes strong and accurate throws on the turn. In all, Crawford has saved the Giants six runs on double plays since 2014 as well as five more runs by making good fielding plays and avoiding defensive misplays.
Whatever the reason, Arenado is exceptional at the hot corner. He is well above average on plays to his left and to his right and in turning double plays, and he is exceptionally sure-handed. So far this season, he leads all third basemen with 11 defensive runs saved, and if he can maintain his lead he will join that exclusive club of players who have finished first in DRS at their position for three straight seasons.
Make no mistake about it, Russell is already a historically excellent defender at short. Since he became the Cubs' full-time shortstop in 2016, he has set the pace for the position with 28 DRS, four more than Crawford in second place and six more than the player I ended up calling the best defensive infielder. I think it's pretty clear that Russell has the best range at the position; he has saved nine more runs than anyone else at shortstop during that same period.
But for all his many strengths, Russell has one weakness. He is prone to making poor throws. Since 2015, he has made 27 bad-throw misplays and errors at shortstop, or 3.4 for every 100 times he fields the ball. That's actually second-worst at the position among regulars.
Who's throwing it away at short?
Most throwing defensive misplays and errors (DMEs) per 100 touches among shortstops, 2015-17.
Player Touches Throwing DMEs Throwing DMEs per 100
Jean Segura 666 26 3.9
Addison Russell 785 27 3.4
Marcus Semien 1,172 37 3.2
Elvis Andrus 1,332 40 3.0
Francisco Lindor 981 28 2.9
It is likely that Russell's excellent range is somewhat responsible for his propensity for bad throws because he can get a glove on so many high-difficulty plays. As long as he can convert some of those into outs, he is helping his team more than any extra bad throws can hurt them. But when we are talking about the top spot for the best defensive infielder, that one weakness is enough to cost him the No. 1 slot.
He has not made it quite back to that neighborhood since, but he has hardly slowed down. From 2014 to 2017, he has saved his teams 75 runs, which is the most among all infielders and the most among shortstops, 23 runs ahead of Crawford in second place. In that time, Simmons has the best range numbers, the best double-play numbers and the best misplay-avoidance numbers at the position.
Simmons' greatest skill is what separates him from Russell: his throwing arm. He has made just 1.9 throwing misplays and errors per 100 throws, barely over half as many as Russell, and has made more than 20 above-average plays in each of his past four seasons on ground balls hit in the shortstop/third-base hole, where arm strength is most critical.
Scott Spratt is a research analyst for Baseball Info Solutions. You can follow him on Twitter (@Scott_Spratt).
Make no mistake about it, Russell is already a historically excellent defender at short. Since he became the Cubs' full-time shortstop in 2016, he has set the pace for the position with 28 DRS, four more than Crawford in second place and six more than the player I ended up calling the best defensive infielder. I think it's pretty clear that Russell has the best range at the position; he has saved nine more runs than anyone else at shortstop during that same period.
But for all his many strengths, Russell has one weakness. He is prone to making poor throws. Since 2015, he has made 27 bad-throw misplays and errors at shortstop, or 3.4 for every 100 times he fields the ball. That's actually second-worst at the position among regulars.
Who's throwing it away at short?
Most throwing defensive misplays and errors (DMEs) per 100 touches among shortstops, 2015-17.
Player Touches Throwing DMEs Throwing DMEs per 100
Jean Segura 666 26 3.9
Addison Russell 785 27 3.4
Marcus Semien 1,172 37 3.2
Elvis Andrus 1,332 40 3.0
Francisco Lindor 981 28 2.9
It is likely that Russell's excellent range is somewhat responsible for his propensity for bad throws because he can get a glove on so many high-difficulty plays. As long as he can convert some of those into outs, he is helping his team more than any extra bad throws can hurt them. But when we are talking about the top spot for the best defensive infielder, that one weakness is enough to cost him the No. 1 slot.
He has not made it quite back to that neighborhood since, but he has hardly slowed down. From 2014 to 2017, he has saved his teams 75 runs, which is the most among all infielders and the most among shortstops, 23 runs ahead of Crawford in second place. In that time, Simmons has the best range numbers, the best double-play numbers and the best misplay-avoidance numbers at the position.
Simmons' greatest skill is what separates him from Russell: his throwing arm. He has made just 1.9 throwing misplays and errors per 100 throws, barely over half as many as Russell, and has made more than 20 above-average plays in each of his past four seasons on ground balls hit in the shortstop/third-base hole, where arm strength is most critical.
Scott Spratt is a research analyst for Baseball Info Solutions. You can follow him on Twitter (@Scott_Spratt).