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[Skooby]

Keith Law's 2017 Mock Draft 1.0: Will a high schooler make history?

Keith Law's 2017 Mock Draft 1.0: Will a high schooler make history?

To quote a national crosschecker I spoke to while assembling this mock: "There are a few picks that seem very strongly tied to teams, but after that, a ton of smoke."

Another front-office guy whose team picks in the top 10 said his team still has 20 names under consideration for that pick. As such, I take some solace in knowing that, although I don’t know who’s going to be taken where, nobody else knows either.

There are really just two candidates to go first overall at this point, excluding some rumored way-under-slot names such as Pavin Smith. Brendan McKay is a true two-way talent from Louisville who could go out at first base or as a left-handed starter. Hunter Greene is also a two-way player, but his future is almost certainly on the mound, and he has a ceiling for the ages. If McKay doesn’t go first, he goes second. If Greene doesn’t go second (or first), he goes third. If Royce Lewis doesn’t go third, he goes no lower than fifth. If Mackenzie Gore doesn’t go fifth, I think he goes sixth.

But at that point, it starts to get fuzzy. I’ve heard Shane Baz with Philadelphia a few times. The same with Jordon Adell and the Angels. I’m also pretty sure I’ve heard 12 players identified as "definitely going in the top 10," which I believe would require some sort of non-Euclidean draft math.

Some of these names are more strongly attached to their teams than others. Some are entirely speculative at this point because it’s too early, with most teams not having regional meetings with their area scouts until this week or, for more teams, next week. Also, bear in mind that I’m not assuming anything about signability here; any team might choose to sign a second-round talent, a college senior or a fourth-year junior to save money on that pick and go overslot on later picks. None of the 27 names I’ve assigned to teams would fit that description.

This is my first projection of all of the picks for the first round -- 27 picks, as three teams surrendered theirs to sign free agents -- of the 2017 Rule 4 draft, to be held June 12-14.

This is based on the best information I could get about team preferences for specific players or player categories, as well as knowledge of teams' general strategies for their first picks in the draft. This is not, however, a ranking of players by ability or what I view as their likely major league value.

1. Minnesota Twins
Brendan McKay, LHP/1B
Louisville

McKay is a true two-way prospect, and some scouts say he’s the best pure hitter in the draft. I think he’s a better prospect on the mound, with a 90-95 mph fastball and plus curveball along with a long track record of performance.

2. Cincinnati Reds
Hunter Greene, RHP/SS
Notre Dame High School, Sherman Oaks, California

Greene is a 17-year-old phenom from Giancarlo Stanton’s alma mater. He has reached 101 mph and sits in the mid-90s with easy arm action and tremendous athleticism.

3. San Diego Padres
Royce Lewis, SS
JSerra High School, San Juan Capistrano, California

Lewis has pretty good feel at the plate and tons of speed, which should make him a top-10 pick even though he lacks a clear position.

4. Tampa Bay Rays
Kyle Wright, RHP
Vanderbilt

Wright has the delivery and size of a starter, with an out pitch in his slider and a fastball that has reached 96. He should be the first college right-hander taken.

5. Atlanta Braves
MacKenzie Gore, LHP
Whiteville (North Carolina) High School

Gore might be this year’s Braxton Garrett, a lefty with an average fastball but command and feel beyond his years. He also has a tight curveball that looks like a potential out pitch.

6. Oakland Athletics
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP
North Carolina

Bukauskas has a plus fastball and plus slider now, though UNC has him overusing the slider, and he can turn over his changeup well enough that I think he’ll end up with three above-average weapons.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks
Adam Haseley, OF
Virginia

Haseley leads the Cavaliers’ everyday starters in all three triple-slash stats (.399/.491/.680) and in walks (32) through May 2. He shows surprising power and the potential to stay in center field long term.

8. Philadelphia Phillies
Shane Baz, RHP
Concordia Lutheran High School, Tomball, Texas

Baz has touched 98 with a good slider, but there is concern about the delivery and how well hitters seem to see his fastball.

9. Milwaukee Brewers
Austin Beck, OF
North Davidson High School, Lexington, North Carolina

Beck is already tooled up and physically mature, with tremendous bat speed, but there is some effort to his game and some trouble with off-speed stuff.

10. Los Angeles Angels
Jordon Adell, OF
Ballard High School, Louisville, Kentucky

Adell started the season miserably and hasn't thrown well all year, but has been on a power tear recently and has moved himself back into first-round consideration, even with swing-and-miss concerns.

 

[Skooby]

11. Chicago White Sox
Pavin Smith, 1B
Virginia

Smith is the safest of the safe guys. He has been among the hardest Division I hitters to strike out, with just seven strikeouts through 47 games and 183 at-bats through May 2. He also makes hard contact and shows some power.

12. Pittsburgh Pirates
Trevor Rogers, LHP
Carlsbad (New Mexico) High School

Rogers turns 20 in November and is one of the oldest prep players in the class, but the stuff is there now, up to the mid-90s with a very hard slider and a lightning-quick arm.

13. Miami Marlins
Heliot Ramos, OF
Alfonso Casta Martinez High School, Maunabo, Puerto Rico

Ramos has a very direct swing that should produce tons of contact and at least average power. He’s a plus runner with the arm strength to end up an all-around asset in center.

14. Kansas City Royals
DL Hall, LHP
Valdosta (Georgia) High School

Hall works in the low 90s with a hammer curveball but lacks the command and control of Gore and has some cross-body action in his delivery. He might have more long-term upside, though.

15. Houston Astros
David Peterson, LHP
Oregon

A 6-foot-6 lefty, Peterson has been sitting 90-94 in recent starts and has an unbelievable 117-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio this year, capped by a 20-strikeout outing on April 28 against feeble Arizona State.

16. New York Yankees
Nick Pratto, 1B
Huntington Beach (California) High School

Pratto seems to have separated himself as the best pure hitter among the high school crop this year, though high school first basemen taken high don’t have the greatest track record either.

17. Seattle Mariners
Griffin Canning, RHP
UCLA

Canning has an unorthodox delivery, but he throws a lot of strikes with his 93-94 mph fastball and power slider.

18. Detroit Tigers
Alex Faedo, RHP
Florida

Faedo has shown bigger velocity in the past but is more average this year, with a plus slider and below-average command.

19. San Francisco Giants
Luis Campusano-Bracero, C
Cross Creek High School, Augusta, Georgia

Campusano-Bracero cleaned his body up substantially over the winter and has run up the board in a year that has very few significant catching prospects.

20. New York Mets
Logan Warmoth, 3B
North Carolina

A junior shortstop, Warmoth is showing more power and patience this season. Some scouts think he’ll move to third or second, but he shows enough pop to profile as a regular at either spot.

21. Baltimore Orioles
Jeren Kendall, OF
Vanderbilt

Kendall could easily slip into the back of the first round after a spring in which he has had trouble making contact, but the athleticism here is hard to pass up. He is maybe an 80 runner, with bat speed and good range in center.

22. Toronto Blue Jays
Jake Burger, 3B
Missouri State

Burger has real power and rarely strikes out, though scouts think the power is ahead of his hit tool. He’s very likely to end up at first base.

23. Los Angeles Dodgers
Bubba Thompson, OF
McGill-Toolen High School, Mobile, Alabama

Thompson is committed to the University of Alabama to play baseball and football, but he’s almost certainly going to be drafted high enough that it won’t matter. He’s an 80 runner with power and athleticism, but there are questions about how raw he is as a hitter right now.

 

[Skooby]

24. Boston Red Sox
Keston Hiura, 2B/DH
UC-Irvine

Hiura is another plus hit tool guy, but he has always had a below-average arm that has limited his potential positions, and a UCL tear in April 2016 has kept him from throwing in games since.

25. Washington Nationals
Tanner Houck, RHP
Missouri

Houck is a two-pitch guy with a reliever’s delivery. He has seen his performance drop this spring as his stuff has backed up a little bit.

26. Texas Rangers
Ryan Vilade, SS
Stillwater (Oklahoma) High School

Vilade plays short now but will move to third base in pro ball, where his plus raw power will make him a good regular as long as he hits enough to get to it.

27. Chicago Cubs
Nick Allen, SS
Francis Parker High School, San Diego, California

The biggest knock on Allen is his size -- he’s maybe 5-foot-8 and maxed out -- but he’s a true shortstop who has hit everywhere he has played, and scouts love his style of play.

 

[Skooby]

NBA draft combine preview: Top prospects to watch

NBA draft combine preview: Top prospects to watch


CHICAGO -- The 2017 NBA draft combine officially got underway Tuesday with player measurements and team interviews. But the real fun begins Thursday (3 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ESPN3/WatchESPN).

As always, NBA GMs, scouting staffs and coaches are here to dig deeper into the top picks in the draft. The combine will feature 5-on-5 games, shooting and skills drills, athletic testing, measurements, medical evaluations and team interviews.

Here's a sneak preview of what to expect Thursday and Friday, including the top players to watch, who has the most at stake, what teams are looking for and more.


Who's not there
The NBA draft combine continues to struggle to get the top players to participate.

In 2015, the combine featured 5-on-5 games for the first time since 2008, a major selling point to NBA folks who had tired of shooting and layup drills. Unfortunately, only two players who were drafted in the first round, Louisville's Terry Rozier and Wyoming's Larry Nance Jr., actually played.

In 2016, that number got slightly better. St. Joseph's DeAndre' Bembry, New Mexico's Pascal Siakam and Vanderbilt's Damian Jones were the three players selected in the first round to play in the 5-on-5.

This year it looks as if the 5-on-5 portion is headed for a similar fate.

Eight players in our top 15 -- Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Jayson Tatum, Jonathan Isaac, Malik Monk, Dennis Smith, Lauri Markkanen and Frank Ntilikina -- won't do anything. No drills, no athletic testing, medical, interviews -- nothing. Ntilikina has a team commitment in Europe that prevents him from playing.

The rest? They seem confident they're top-10 picks and their agents don't want anything to happen to them, either via injury or poor performance, that could hurt draft stock.

Several other players, including Markelle Fultz and De'Aaron Fox, have accepted invitations, but it's unclear whether they'll do anything more than official measurements and team interviews.

A number of other players in our top 30 -- Zach Collins, Harry Giles, Jarrett Allen, Luke Kennard, Terrance Ferguson, TJ Leaf, Ike Anigbogu, Justin Patton, John Collins, Donovan Mitchell, Edrice Adebayo, Ivan Rabb, Justin Jackson, Jawun Evans, D.J. Wilson, Tony Bradley, Caleb Swanigan and Hamidou Diallo -- won't play in the 5-on-5.

And several players ranked outside the top 35 -- Duke's Amile Jefferson, Villanova's Josh Hart and Indiana's Thomas Bryant -- will be skipping the 5-on-5 as well. Add in several injured prospects who can't play -- Indiana's OG Anunoby, Valparaiso's Alec Peters, Oregon's Chris Boucher, Xavier's Edmond Sumner and Baylor's Johnathan Motley -- and nearly half of the participants invited won't play a minute of basketball.

Why would players refuse to participate in the combine? To understand this, look first to the agents. These days agents tend to care less about draft position and more about finding the right fits for their clients. By withholding information, especially medical examinations, it gives them leverage to steer their clients away from teams the agents consider undesirable.



Who is playing?


Several players ranked in our top 30 are planning to play 5-on-5. Here's a look at the three highest-ranked prospects who are set to play Thursday and Friday.



Moritz Wagner, F/C, So., Michigan

Wagner is also testing the draft waters after a breakout performance against Louisville in the NCAA tournament. He was up and down all season and probably isn't ready for the NBA yet, but he is young, scores from anywhere on the floor, plays with toughness and possesses a high basketball IQ. If he were playing in Europe, he'd probably get looks in the lottery.



Andrew Jones, G, Fr., Texas

Jones is a divisive player among scouts. He has the elite athletic ability teams crave in a guard, but his feel for the game can leave a lot to be desired. He's a "love him or hate him" prospect, but the combine should be good for him, especially if his shot is falling. He also is testing the waters, so this should give him some critical info this week.

Jonathan Jeanne, F/C, France

Jeanne is a late addition and a welcome one for scouts who have been dying to see him play against better talent. He's 7-foot-2 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan. He needs to add strength and experience, but a strong performance here could easily move him into the first round in what is otherwise a fairly weak international draft.

I spoke with a number of NBA scouts and GMs to see if there were any less-obvious prospects outside our top 30 that might turn into first-round sleepers with a strong camp. The names mentioned were pretty consistent: SMU's Semi Ojeleye, who's built like a tank but has a really versatile game; Syracuse's Tyler Lydon, an athletic player who can stretch the floor and protect the rim but doesn't have a position; Duke's Frank Jackson, a combo guard but a potential Jerryd Bayless-type scorer; and Maryland's Justin Jackson, a super long, 3-and-D-type freshman who has been flying under the radar.

Overall, the highest-ranked players still in the draft not to receive an invite were Georgia's Yante Maten (62), St. Bonaventure's Jaylen Adams (63) and UCLA's Aaron Holiday (75).

The lowest-ranked players in our Top 100 to receive an invite were Pittsburgh's Jamel Artis (87), Arizona's Kadeem Allen (86) and Miami's Davon Reed (84). All three of those players received automatic invites because of their play at the seniors-only Portsmouth Invitational draft camp.



Decisions, decisions


The NBA had a record 137 NCAA underclassmen declare for the draft this year. With only 60 spots in the draft, obviously the majority of these players will leave the draft disappointed if they don't pull out by the May 25 deadline for college players to keep their NCAA eligibility.

Not getting an invite to the combine is a fairly strong sign that you're not a first-round prospect, and you probably won't get drafted at all.

Of those underclassmen, 81 didn't get an invite. If they haven't signed with an agent already, they can go back to school and probably should. A few did sign, including Kentucky's Isaac Humphries and LSU's Antonio Blakeney.

But for a number of others, this combine will give them a real feel for their chances. Last year, players such as Hart, Nigel Hayes and Jaron Blossomgame returned to school after not getting the positive feedback they desired, while others such as Malachi Richardson and Siakam used the info they gathered and decided to stay in the draft.

This year a number of prospects playing are still on the fence. They include North Carolina's Bradley, Michigan's Wilson and Wagner, Texas' Jones, Purdue's Swanigan, Kentucky's Diallo, SMU's Ojeleye, Duke's Jackson, BYU's Eric Mika, Baylor's Motley, Maryland's Jackson, NC State's Omer Yurtseven, Arizona's Rawle Alkins, Kansas' Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk and Indiana's Bryant.

Without a breakout performance, expect most of these players to head back to school in a few weeks.

 

[Skooby]

What are teams looking for?
Virtually every GM in the league will tell you the most important parts of the combine for them are the interviews and medical evaluations.

Teams spend four hours a day doing sit downs with individual players.

Team psychologists are in the room to help understand a player's makeup. Coaches try to figure out basketball IQ, often asking players to diagram plays. GMs try to figure out how they'll fit from a chemistry standpoint. Other staff members will probe potential off-the-court challenges their research has uncovered.

There's no formula for any of this. Every team does it differently, but all will say it's an important part of the draft process. It has helped prospects in the past such as Buddy Hield and Jimmy Butler move up boards.

Even more important will be the medical examinations that team doctors will conduct. The single biggest way to hurt your draft stock is to draw a serious red flag from the physicals. It can drop a first-round prospect 20 to 30 spots on the board.

However, in some cases, it can save lives. A couple of years ago, the NBA discovered during the examinations that Baylor's Isaiah Austin had Marfan syndrome.

The rest of the stuff that happens doesn't move the needle much.

The athletic testing might be the sexiest thing that happens in the combine, but it rarely has a significant effect on a player's draft stock. Great players such as Kevin Durant have tested terribly during the athletic testing, whereas draft busts have tested off the charts. I haven't found a team that sees a strong correlation between performance in these drills and NBA futures. It's an interesting data point, but that's all it is.

As for the 5-on-5 play, the players who do participate can help their stock a little (see Siakam last year), but most likely only one or two prospects will really do much.

 

[Tha_Mac]

5-on-5: What trades would help Harden, Rockets contend?

 

[Skooby]

5-on-5: What trades would help Harden, Rockets contend?

5-on-5: What trades would help Harden and the Rockets contend?



Should the Rockets go all-in for a title chase this summer or keep flexibility for 2018? What moves should they make?

Our 5-on-5 crew debates and predicts Houston's offseason.







1. What should the Rockets do?
A. Go all-in this offseason to compete for a championship.
B. Preserve cap space to make a big move in 2018.

Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: B. They can still compete for a championship even without "going all-in." James Harden is a perennial MVP candidate and the surrounding core is young enough to continue blossoming in Mike D'Antoni's system. Plus, if you strike in 2018-19, you have the added benefit of one more year on LeBron's odometer.

Chris Herring, FiveThirtyEight/ESPN.com: B. Preserve the space. The landscape could change a bit between now and then. The Rockets had an unbelievable season, but they may need other dimensions to help them stand out as much as they did this season, when they simply decided no one was going to shoot more 3-pointers than them. They may need more of a defensive presence or, if they're truly going all-in on this strategy, a rim-protecting big who can also connect from outside -- a role that Ryan Anderson can't realistically fill in the postseason.

Tim MacMahon, ESPN.com: Pounce when the opportunity presents itself to acquire a co-star for James Harden. The easier path is probably preserving cap space for the summer of 2018, but general manager Daryl Morey will surely do his due diligence in the trade market this offseason. If he can't find a home run, there's nothing wrong with returning the core of a 55-win team and maintaining future flexibility.

Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: If the Warriors get significantly weaker during the summer -- several of their players will be free agents -- I think an all-in move might make sense. If not, going all-in is probably a waste of money. The Rockets have done an extremely good job signing (or trading for) valuable contributors with good deals. I'd simply keep doing that.

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: B. I think the Rockets can look for one-year deals in free agency without compromising their 2017-18 roster enough to justify dipping into their 2018 cap space. I don't think Houston could dramatically improve in free agency anyway, given that the entire rotation, save Nene, is already returning. The Rockets' other needs, like a reliable fourth guard in case of injury, shouldn't be particularly difficult to fill.







2. Should the Rockets sign Nene, acquire another backup center or neither?
Herring: I'd be inclined to let him walk, given the raise he'll be due. Give Montrezl Harrell, the current backup, a shot there. Though he's heavily reliant on Harden's feeds to score at times, Harrell can do enough of the things Nene does to fill in for him. That said, D'Antoni's limited use of Harrell in the Spurs series shows the coaching staff doesn't trust him nearly as much as Nene at the moment.

MacMahon: Nene on another one-year deal should be Plan A. He embraces the reserve role, fits the system and serves as a positive veteran influence in the locker room. If his price is too high, the Rockets should search for another stopgap veteran backup. There's no reason to spend big money or commit multiple years for a position that will be manned primarily by Clint Capela.

Haberstroh: Re-sign Nene. He was such a valuable member in the rotation and offers a stronger scoring presence than Capela, who is more of a lob threat. His groin injury is just another instance of a long line of health issues he has faced in his career, but that should be priced into the contract. At this age, there are not too many places where he can get minutes on a championship-contending team. He can get that in Houston.

Pelton: That depends on the market for Nene and whether he's willing to take less money on a one-year deal to return, but I wouldn't give him a significant raise despite how well he played for Houston this season. There are simply too many capable centers on the market to feel the need to sign any specific one. One name in particular to watch for the Rockets: Willie Reed of the Miami Heat, who could fill a similar role to Capela's.

Engelmann: Nene is quite good -- real plus-minus (RPM) has him as the 12th-best center this season -- when he's on the court. Problem is, Nene is rarely healthy for long. Not only has he missed time this postseason, the 67 games he played in the regular season were the most he has played since 2010-11. I'd re-sign him, but not for more than $12 million per season, which the Rockets couldn't without trading players to clear additional cap space, since they don't have Nene's full Bird rights.






3. Should they sign Clint Capela to an extension or wait?
Pelton: Unless Capela is willing to take a huge discount -- something in the range of $10 million a year -- I'd wait for him to reach restricted free agency. While that might cost the Rockets some extra salary, it means less risk and allows them to take advantage of his small $7.0 million cap hold as a restricted free agent (RFA).


Engelmann: That's dependent on the price Capela's agent gives them. And there is risk for Houston either way. Given that Capela is just 22, chances are he's going to further improve his numbers. So a team eager to get him from Houston might throw the max at him next summer.

Herring: I love Capela, and his fit here as Harden's pick-and-roll partner, but would probably wait. See whether this team can consistently contend with the current roster, and see where these players take you first. If you have to spend big next year to keep him as a RFA, so be it. But don't pull the trigger now when there may be a better move out there for you between now and then.

MacMahon: Capela has played his way into a huge contract. Young rim protectors who average double-digit points without demanding the ball get paid. The Rockets would be wise to wait, though. It's not that Capela needs to do anything more to convince them that he can be a core player for years to come. It's that Houston can benefit by waiting to make that financial commitment to Capela -- maintaining cap space for 2018 -- and has no risk of losing him as a restricted free agent. The price will be high either way.

Haberstroh: Wait. Tabling it until next offseason will offer them flexibility in free agency and allow them to chase free agents without him eating the cap. Capela is an outstanding young player, who fits perfectly in their system, but there's little upside in locking him in now.







4. What trade would you like to see the Rockets make?
MacMahon: A swing-for-the-fences deal for a superstar. However, it's hard to envision how Houston could come up with the assets to make a competitive bid for a Jimmy Butler or Paul George. As far as needs go, the Rockets could use another 3-and-D wing to ease some of the burden on Trevor Ariza.

Haberstroh: Defensive bigs. When Nene went down, it exposed their lack of defensive depth in the frontcourt and forced Harden to play out of position. Sure, Chinanu Onuaku and Harrell are possibilities down the line, but I'd dangle Lou Williams and see if they could get a defensive big who could contribute right away. Either that, or try to sign David West or Dewayne Dedmon.

Pelton: Besides signing free agents to one-year deals, another way for Houston to use its cap space without cutting into 2018 flexibility would be trading for players in the final season of their contracts. Taking Ed Davis into space would give the Rockets a good backup center option while also cutting the Portland Trail Blazers' luxury-tax bill.

Engelmann: If they're serious about winning a championship, I think they'll have to move Ryan Anderson. He is great when it comes to bombing lesser teams out of the building, but I don't think he can be your starting PF if you want to beat the Warriors or Cavs. Unfortunately, power forwards who can shoot 3s and defend well are extremely tough to find.

Herring: Similar to the deal they almost pulled off for Chris Bosh a couple of years ago. They probably lack the assets to seriously land someone like Kristaps Porzingis, but he'd be an unbelievable fit with a club like Houston, both because of what he brings on offense and because of his rim-protecting ability on defense. That's more than likely a pipe dream, but something in that direction would benefit them most.





5. How many Western Conference finals appearances do you expect for the Rockets the next five seasons?
Haberstroh: If the over/under is at 2.5, I'll take the under. The Warriors should rule the West for some time, but the Rockets have built something special in Houston. This team is a lot closer to a championship than its second-round exit would suggest. Dallas in 2011 should be a reminder that lingering around can pay off in a big way.

Herring: If things shake out in their favor? Maybe one or two. It depends on whether they can find that sort of center who fits their unusual style on offense while also taking them from being merely respectable on defense to elite.

They could potentially reach the West finals regularly depending on what happens with the other contenders this summer. The Clippers and Jazz both have big decisions on the table, while it might be time for the Spurs to turn over their starting point guard spot.

MacMahon: Maybe a couple. Put it this way: The Rockets are well positioned to be in the group of teams that can fight for the right to meet the Warriors in the West finals over the next five years. But so are the Spurs and Jazz (if Gordon Hayward stays).

Engelmann: I'd set the over/under at 1.5. On the plus side, the Rockets have one of the smartest front offices in the league. But Capela, Trevor Ariza and Lou Williams, who currently make a combined $16 million per season, will be looking for big raises soon, and it'll be tough to find adequate replacements.

Pelton: I think the line is set at 1.5. As long as James Harden is on the roster, and in better shape than in 2015-16, the Rockets should be in the mix for the conference finals. At the same time, there are many teams in the mix and probably only one spot to go around as long as the Golden State Warriors are intact. So I think it's reasonable to expect one or two conference finals appearances.

 

[Darealtwo1]

Scout's Take: Duke lands No. 1 PG Trevon Duval

Trevon Duval's commitment answers Duke's lasting point guard question

 

[Skooby]

Scout's Take: Duke lands No. 1 PG Trevon Duval

Scout's Take: Duke lands No. 1 PG Trevon Duval

ESPN 100 point guard Trevon Duval announced his commitment to Duke on Monday morning via the Players' Tribune. Here's a look at what the top-ranked lead guard in the 2017 class will bring to Durham.

Why he committed: Duval cut his list to five in the fall with Duke, Arizona, Seton Hall, Kansas, and Baylor making the cut. As the year went on Duke and Arizona were the ones with building momentum, but there were also persistent rumors that he was considering playing overseas for a year, following in the footsteps of Emmanuel Mudiay and Terrance Ferguson, before entering the 2018 NBA Draft. Duval was on Duke’s campus for their game against North Carolina and that atmosphere and tradition clearly resonated with him. He had been open about the fact that he was waiting to see how the various rosters would evolve with players declaring for the NBA Draft and so it may not be a coincidence that his decision comes less than a week after Duke freshmen Frank Jackson announced that he would be signing with an agent and staying in the NBA Draft, thus creating a glaring opportunity to step right in and be the starting point guard from day one.

What he brings: Duval is the most explosive lead guard in the country. He combines power, quickness, and leaping ability with terrific positional size and a 6-foot-9 measured wingspan. He plays with an attacking style, gets downhill with ease, and makes the type of high level plays off the dribble that translate to the very highest level. He has a physicality about his game that allows him to play through contact like few other guards in the high school game, can stop on a dime to make quick changes in direction, and rise up to deliver the type of explosive finishes that can immediately change the momentum of the game. Defensively, he’s no less talented. While he hasn’t yet approached that end of the floor with the same conviction as he has the offensive end, his lateral quickness, length, physical strength, and competitiveness give him the potential to be an elite on-ball defender. Duval’s areas of improvement include his jump shot, decision making, and some of the subtleties that go into managing a game and running a team.

How he fits: Duke played without a true point guard for all of last season and when both Jackson and Luke Kennard opted to stay in the draft, they found themselves in even more desperate need of ball-handling and perimeter depth then they may have expected. Duval’s commitment was consequently pivotal for them and so he’ll have every opportunity to start and play major minutes. What’s interesting though is that Duval isn’t the type of prototypically pure point guard that Coach K has valued over the years. He’s much more of a new age style lead guard with an attacking mentality. It’s an adjustment that Duke has become more accustomed to in recent years, but certainly wasn’t initially natural. The return of Grayson Allen will ease the burden on Duval as Allen is a proven scorer and ideal secondary ball-handler who has played both on and off the ball in recent years.

How the class is shaping up: Duval is the sixth player to commit to Duke in the class of 2017 and the third in the last two weeks following commitments from Jordan Goldwire earlier this month and Jordan Tucker over the weekend. More notably, Duval joins Wendell Carter and Gary Trent Jr. to give Duke the top ranked power forward, shooting guard, and point guard in the national class. Carter and Trent are both multi-positional, capable of playing the four-five and the two-three respectively, and together that trio may find themselves in the starting line-up from day one. Alex O’Connell and Tucker provide the Blue Devils with two three-point shooters who both have good size on the perimeter at 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-7 respectively while Goldwire is an insurance policy and potential back-up point guard.

Who he reminds us of: The most common comparison is that of Russell Westbrook with his explosiveness and attacking straight line style, but that may not be entirely fair. Duval is an elite athlete whose physical tools are beyond any other guard in this class, but to compare him to Westbrook is premature at this point. Instead, it may be more realistic to cite other attacking lead guards like Steve Francis, Eric Bledsoe, or even Dennis Smith Jr., who have similar explosive styles and were/are stars in their own right.

 

[Skooby]

Trevon Duval's commitment answers Duke's lasting point guard question

Trevon Duval's commitment answers Duke's lasting point guard question


Mike Krzyzewski didn’t have any other options. Trevon Duval or bust.

When Frank Jackson announced last week that he was signing with an agent and keeping his name in the NBA draft, Duke was left without a point guard for next season.

Krzyzewski knew he had to close Duval, the nation’s No. 1 guard and one of the best players left in the class of 2017 -- and quickly.

It took him less than 72 hours.

Duval announced his commitment to Duke on Monday morning, choosing the Blue Devils over Kansas, Arizona, Seton Hall and Baylor.

Over the past few months, Duval went from a potential luxury target to an absolute must-get.

Point guard was a focus of Duke for most of the 2017 recruiting cycle. The Blue Devils offered Trae Young (No. 22) in June 2015, dabbled with Tremont Waters (No. 32) and then zeroed in on Quade Green (No. 23) coming out of last July. Once it became clear Green was going elsewhere, Duke turned to Matt Coleman (No. 29). Krzyzewski then jumped in for Duval, who had a quiet recruitment until that point. The Blue Devils reached out to Duval in October but didn’t extend a scholarship offer until late November.

At the time, Jackson wasn’t a surefire one-and-done prospect. He started the season on a high note, but when Grayson Allen became fully healthy, Jackson was relegated to a reserve role behind Allen, Luke Kennard, Matt Jones and Jayson Tatum on the perimeter. An increased role late in the season boosted his stock, though, as he scored at least 14 points in seven of his final nine games.

Jackson’s Friday announcement left Allen as the starting point guard for next season -- a route Krzyzewski didn’t want to go down again. Duke was left in a similar situation two springs ago when Tyus Jones announced he was heading to the NBA draft after his freshman season. The Blue Devils ended up convincing Derryck Thornton Jr. to reclassify into the 2015 class and enroll at Duke. Allen still shouldered the primary playmaking role that season, and did so again in 2016-17 despite the addition of Jackson.

Could it have worked again? Duke had a highly efficient offense the past two seasons, but that was with lottery picks like Tatum and Brandon Ingram flooding the roster.

Despite all the talent on the roster this past season, Duke was considered a massive disappointment, losing on the NCAA tournament’s opening weekend and finishing with nine losses. What went wrong? Aside from the nonstop drama -- Krzyzewski’s leave of absence, the focus on Allen’s on-court behavior, a locker room ban -- the lack of consistency at point guard might have been the biggest issue. Duke simply didn’t have a playmaker to create offense for others.

Krzyzewski wanted a true point guard for next season. And before Duval, he didn’t have one.

The closest thing to a true point guard on next season’s roster was Jordan Goldwire, whom Duke signed earlier this month after beating out Eastern Kentucky. It goes without saying that the Blue Devils aren’t expecting Goldwire to shoulder any sort of significant load next season.

Duval changes everything.

There are major personnel losses across the board, with Kennard, Tatum, Jackson and Harry Giles leaving early for the NBA draft, Matt Jones and Amile Jefferson graduating, and Chase Jeter and Sean Obi transferring. In fact, only one player who saw more than eight minutes per game last season returns (Allen).

But the reinforcements are coming, with No. 1 shooting guard Gary Trent Jr. and No. 1 power forward Wendell Carter entering the fold. ESPN 100 wing Jordan Tucker, who committed to Duke on Saturday, is a knockdown shooter who should get open looks off Duval’s drive-and-kick game. Trent and Allen will form one of the best wing scoring duos in the country. Carter and Marques Bolden can both score in the post. ESPN 100 wing Alex O’Connell is a scorer with size.

Duval was the missing piece.

He excels at beating his defender off the dribble and getting into the lane, where he is an unbelievable finisher in traffic -- but can also find teammates for open shots. He averaged 16.1 points and 7.5 assists as a senior at IMG, consistently proving himself as an elite playmaker.

“They’re going to put the ball in his hands, let him make plays,” one college coach said of Duke and Duval. “They’re going to give him space, ball screens. They let you do your thing. Stylistically, the freedom they give their guards, their usage, the way they use ball screens and attack the rim, he’ll be good in that sense.”

There was nowhere else to turn had Duval committed elsewhere Monday morning, but Krzyzewski made sure he didn’t have to worry about that. He wanted Duval, and he got Duval.

As a result, Duke is back in the national title conversation.

 

[GreatestLaker]

Mock Draft: First-round picks for Celtics, Lakers, 76ers and more

 

[Skooby]

Mock Draft: First-round picks for Celtics, Lakers, 76ers and more

1. Boston Celtics (via Nets)

Markelle Fultz
Washington
Freshman
Guard

The Celtics were the big winners in more ways than one. Not only do they get the No. 1 pick, but now they control the draft, making trade offers even more lucrative.

If they keep the pick, Fultz is the clear choice for them. He can play both the 1 and the 2, stretches the floor and has the build to contribute right now. If they shop this pick, they should be able to get a player like Paul George or Jimmy Butler in a trade in return. Fultz is that good.





2. Los Angeles Lakers

Lonzo Ball
UCLA
Freshman
Guard

The Lakers had about a 53 percent chance of losing their pick, but instead moved up a spot.

Ball as a potential Laker has been discussed for months and it appears to be destiny. He has that Showtime quality that the Lakers have been missing since Kobe Bryant retired. And D'Angelo Russell should have no problem moving over to the 2 full-time.

It's unlikely, but one sleeper here is De'Aaron Fox. The Lakers have been enamored with him since he destroyed Ball in the UCLA-Kentucky game during the NCAA tournament. He could move ahead of Ball with great workouts.





3. Philadelphia 76ers (via Kings)

Malik Monk
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

A good but hardly ideal night for the Sixers.

They didn't get the Lakers' pick (though they will get it next year), and their own pick actually fell to fifth. But they moved up to third because of a savvy Sam Hinkie trade made years ago, allowing them to swap places with Sacramento.

Still, it's a tough spot as the Sixers wanted either Fultz or Ball. Now the choice is tougher. But they need shooters and Malik Monk should be there for the taking. Or they can go with the toughness of De'Aaron Fox to bolster their perimeter defense.

Coach Brett Brown plans on putting the ball in Ben Simmons' hands next season, so right now Monk looks more likely. But Fox has a lot of fans in the Sixers' front office and Brown loves gritty players.







4. Phoenix Suns

Josh Jackson
Kansas
Freshman
Forward

The Suns fell two spots, but it's not the end of the world, as point guard isn't really a need.

Jackson is probably the best fit for Phoenix in the draft, a versatile two-way wing who is great in the open court, can lock down three positions and plays with an intensity reminiscent of Kevin Durant. His jump shot is shaky, but the Suns have plenty of shooters.







5. Sacramento Kings (via 76ers)

De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

The Kings desperately want to bring in a young point guard to pair with Buddy Hield, Skal Labissiere and Willie Cauley-Stein.

Fox is the quickest and most explosive guard in the top group of prospects. He also may be the toughest, which should be a godsend for coach Dave Joerger.

Fox's jump shot is shaky and he can't go right, but he's one of the hardest-working, most competitive players in the draft and the sort of culture changer that the Kings really need.





6. Orlando Magic

Jayson Tatum
Duke
Freshman
Forward

The Magic are in the middle of a search for a new team president and GM, so it's hard to predict exactly what direction they'll be heading next season.

This pick should come down to either Tatum or guard Dennis Smith. Neither player fits a need exactly, but Smith would give them a nice complement to Elfrid Payton in the backcourt.

Tatum is, perhaps, the most NBA-ready freshman in the draft. He has a pro game and might be the best pure wing scorer.

It's a toss-up until we know who the new GM will be, but I'm leaning Tatum right now.





7. Minnesota Timberwolves

Jonathan Isaac
Florida State
Freshman
Forward

The Wolves have been high on Lauri Markkanen for a while, and he's a good fit. But the upside of Isaac will be too much to pass up, especially for a head coach like Tom Thibodeau, who needs to find a way to improve team defense.

While Isaac might be further away than some of the other prospects on the board, his ability to guard four, maybe five positions on the floor should be great for Minnesota.





8. New York Knicks

Dennis Smith
NC State
Freshman
Guard

The Knicks are intent on finding a point guard to pair with Kristaps Porzingis.

In some drafts, Smith would be a top-three pick. He's super athletic, he can score from anywhere on the floor and he's an above-average playmaker. His team was terrible last season and that hurt his stock, but he has the tools NBA teams are looking for in a modern point guard.

Frank Ntilikina will also get a long look here. The Knicks have scouted him heavily.





9. Dallas Mavericks

Frank Ntilikina
France
Age: 18
Guard

The Mavs could really use a young point guard to build around and would be happy with whichever one falls to them at No. 9.

Ntilikina has great size for his position, plays with strength and displays a great feel. He's also an improving shooter. He reminds me a bit of George Hill.

The Mavs have scouted him more than anyone in the league. They know what they'd be getting.





10. Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)

Zach Collins
Gonzaga
Freshman
Center

Collins is the real sleeper in the draft and is getting looks from teams as high as the Magic at No. 6. He's the prototype for a modern NBA big man, with the ability to stretch the floor, protect the rim and guard multiple positions. He plays with a toughness that's really appealing to scouts.

He played a supporting role off the bench for Gonzaga last season, but don't let that fool you. Whenever he was in the game, he made an impact.

 

[Skooby]

11. Charlotte Hornets

Lauri Markkanen
Arizona
Freshman
Forward

Markkanen could be off the board as high as No. 7 to the Wolves, but I don't think he'll fall past here. His ability to stretch the floor as a 7-footer is elite.

He's still a bit one-dimensional right now, but I think he'll fit in great in Charlotte.







12. Detroit Pistons

Luke Kennard
Duke
Sophomore
Guard

Kennard might be the top shooter in the draft, but that's not all he is. He can run the pick-and-roll and shoot it off the bounce, and he shows a toughness that has scouts feeling like he can do more than just spot up.

He might be a slight reach at No. 12, but he fits a definite need for the Pistons.





13. Denver Nuggets

OG Anunoby
Indiana
Sophomore
Forward

Anunboy will be affected by what doctors have to say about his surgically repaired knee. Some teams feel it might be up to a year to get him back to full health. We'll know more soon.

Even with the possibility he'll miss next season, I'm not sure the Nuggets will be scared off. They could use a long, athletic player like Anunoby, who can guard five positions on the floor.





14. Miami Heat

Harry Giles
Duke
Freshman
Forward

It might be a few weeks before we know what NBA doctors think of Giles' knee. If he's red-flagged medically, he could drop up to 10 spots on our board, depending on the diagnosis. However, if doctors are satisfied that his knees are in good shape, the Heat will get a steal at No. 14.

Many scouts feel Giles has the most raw talent of any player in the draft. And the Heat can afford to bring him along slowly, getting him fully healthy and explosive again before unleashing a Hassan Whiteside-Giles frontcourt from hell.







15. Portland Trail Blazers

John Collins
Wake Forest
Sophomore
Forward

Collins' position on the board will depend a lot on how well he shoots in workouts. He's a good rebounder and can score in the paint, but scouts who watched him play in practices at Wake think he's going to develop the ability to shoot 3s as well.

He's also the youngest sophomore in the draft and perhaps one of the two or three most improved players in college basketball. There's still some real upside here.





16. Chicago Bulls

Donovan Mitchell
Louisville
Sophomore
Guard

Mitchell scored some significant buzz at the combine thanks to some freaky Dwyane Wade-esque measurements -- he's 6-foot-1 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan -- and terrific scores on the athletic testing.

I've had several scouts compare him to a young, pre-injury Eric Gordon. He's not the shooter that Gordon was coming out of college, but his jumper is coming along, and his ability to play some point could come in handy for the Bulls. At this point, he's one of the few high-upside guys left on the board.





17. Milwaukee Bucks

Terrance Ferguson
Australia
Age: 19
Guard

The Bucks want to put more shooters on the floor, and although he can be streaky, Ferguson can knock down shots from everywhere. He's also an elite athlete who can finish above the rim.

He joked at the combine that he wants to compete in both the dunk and 3-point contests at All-Star Weekend someday. His in-between game and defense still need a lot of work.





18. Indiana Pacers

TJ Leaf
UCLA
Freshman
Forward

Opinions on Leaf are all over the board. He's one of the most gifted scorers on the board and has a great feel for the game. But he lacks strength and elite lateral quickness, making him a potential liability on the defensive end.

However, at this point in the draft, anyone you pick is going to have a glaring weakness or two. Leaf's ability to get buckets should make him valuable to the Pacers.





19. Atlanta Hawks

Jarrett Allen
Texas
Freshman
Center

The Hawks are in the middle of a GM search, making it difficult to be certain which direction they might be heading toward. It looks like the Dwight Howard era in Atlanta could be over sooner than anyone thought, though, and they'll need some young bigs.

Allen is a terrific rebounder and shot-blocker. Plus, he's a fluid athlete. He just needs to add a lot of strength and work on his offensive game.







20. Portland Trail Blazers (via Grizzlies)

Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
Freshman
Center

Anigbogu is a beast in the paint. He's a terrific shot-blocker and rebounder who uses his strength and physicality to box out and finish at the rim.

He might be the most raw prospect on the board, but this is the Blazers' second pick, and they can afford to gamble a little.

 

[Skooby]

21. Oklahoma City Thunder

Justin Jackson
North Carolina
Junior
Forward

Scouts continue to be all over the place on Jackson as a pro prospect. Much of it depends on whether you think his sudden uptick as a 3-point shooter last season will translate to the NBA.

His lack of great lateral speed or explosiveness is a problem, but the Thunder can use another guy who can stretch the floor, and there just aren't a lot of other options at this point in the draft.





22. Brooklyn Nets (via Wizards)

Justin Patton
Creighton
Freshman
Center

Teams really like Patton as a prospect. They just believe it's going to be a fairly long process to get him to where he needs to be.

The Nets can afford to be patient and will need a long-term replacement for Brook Lopez. Patton is good value at this point in the draft.





23. Toronto Raptors (via Clippers)

Edrice Adebayo
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward

"Bam" is an explosive athlete and has an NBA body. The teams that like him are enamored with his ability to guard in the paint and on the perimeter. Having bigs who can switch is a major priority in the league right now.

His offensive game is still pretty raw but might be more advanced than he showed at Kentucky this past season.





24. Utah Jazz

Tony Bradley
North Carolina
Freshman
Center

Bradley's elite length and rebounding ability make him an intriguing prospect at this point in the draft. He'd probably be higher on the board if his role at UNC hadn't been so limited this past season.

Conditioning is a major question mark. He tested as one of the worst athletes in the draft at the combine, and teams worry he might be too heavy-footed to fit into their defensive schemes. But as a backup big man to someone like Rudy Gobert, he's an interesting fit.





25. Orlando Magic (via Raptors)

Frank Jackson
Duke
Freshman
Guard







Jackson decided Friday to keep his name in the draft.

Given how he impressed with his play Thursday and put up elite numbers in the athletic testing portion of the combine, there's a good chance he gets drafted as a Jerryd Bayless-esque combo guard who can play the 1 and the 2. The Magic could certainly use a player like that.





26. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavaliers)




Isaiah Hartenstein
Germany
Age: 18
Forward

This is the third pick for the Blazers, and it makes sense that they'll invest in a draft-and-stash prospect with at least one of them.

Hartenstein is an athletic big man who just lacks real refinement in his game. The Blazers can keep him overseas for another year or two.





27. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)

Hamidou Diallo
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

The Nets need to be swinging for the fences in this draft, and Diallo has all the makings of a boom-or-bust prospect. He has elite physical tools, including a 44½-inch maximum vertical, which was the second-highest ever tested at the combine. He also has elite length for his position.

However, his lack of consistent perimeter skills and overall feel for the game have some scouts wondering if he's more of an athlete than a basketball player. If he decides to stay in the draft, he's worth the risk.





28. L.A. Lakers (via Rockets)

Ivan Rabb
Cal
Sophomore
Forward

Rabb would've been a late lottery pick had he stayed in the draft last year. He had a solid sophomore season for Cal, but teams are struggling to figure out what he'll be in the pros.

He lacks the strength to be a full-time center and lacks the perimeter game and quickness to be a 4.





29. San Antonio Spurs

Jonathan Jeanne
France
Age: 19
Center

Jeanne was a pleasant surprise at the combine. He was the tallest and longest player measured for the draft and showed toughness, which teams weren't expecting.

He needs to add at least 30 pounds of muscle and isn't ready to contribute right now, but he's the sort of player the Spurs have had luck with in the past. They're willing to be patient, and I think Jeanne could pay off in the long run.





30. Utah Jazz (via Warriors)

Moritz Wagner
Michigan
Sophomore
Forward

Wagner's performance at the combine was a mixed bag. He hit some shots and showed off his versatility, but it was clear he wasn't in great shape, and it looked like he ran out of gas Friday. He's very skilled and is an appealing modern big, but the team that drafts him will have to be patient.

He'll probably return to Michigan for his junior season, but if he decides to stay in the draft, he'd be a great get for the Jazz. And given his German passport, he can be a draft-and-stash prospect if they want him to be.

 

[GreatestLaker]

Should Celtics keep the No. 1 pick or trade for a star?