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Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
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Five teams that will fall next season
Now that I've already looked at five teams that are poised to be much better in 2013-14, I thought I'd pander to you pessimists out there and give equal time to the other side of that coin. Here are five teams that I expect to see taking a step back next season.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
As you can guess, I'm assuming that Kelly Olynyk will choose to forego his senior season and enter the NBA draft. (He should. Olynyk's sure to be drafted in the first round, and potentially even the lottery.) And we know Elias Harris has wrapped up his playing career, as has Mike Hart. That leaves Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell, David Stockton, Sam Dower, and Przemek Karnowski -- more than enough to win another West Coast Conference title, but not enough to repeat a 32-3 season.
When Wichita State beat the Zags in the round of 32, the consensus was that Mark Few's team had been overrated. But the Shockers subsequently reaching the Final Four and playing Louisville into the 40th minute suggested another possibility: Gonzaga was not only bracketed with one the best No. 9 seeds in the tournament's history, the Bulldogs also caught that opponent on a night when it made 14 3s. March can be cruel.
Indiana Hoosiers
With Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo headed to the NBA, they'll join seniors Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls in making their departures now.
Granted, even in this scenario there's still a lot left in the cupboard: Yogi Ferrell, Will Sheehey, Remy Abell and Jeremy Hollowell give Tom Crean a solid nucleus, and the class of entering freshmen -- headlined by Noah Vonleh -- is outstanding. But all of the above still sums to a group that's a step down from what Indiana was in 2012-13, namely, the best team in the best conference in the country.
Miami Hurricanes
If he stays, Shane Larkin figures to compete with Virginia's Joe Harris for preseason ACC Player of the Year honors. The bad news, however, is that virtually every single player not named Rion Brown who Larkin played alongside as a sophomore is now gone. Durand Scott, Reggie Johnson, Kenny Kadji, Julian Gamble and Trey McKinney Jones all have exhausted their eligibility.
With its senior-heavy roster, Miami excelled at putting the clamps on opposing offenses, leading the ACC in both 2-point field goal percentage allowed and defensive rebounding in conference play. Now Jim Larranaga will have to summon that same level of performance from an entirely new frontcourt rotation.
Kansas Jayhawks
Predicting that a team with nine consecutive Big 12 titles to its name is going to "fall" would seem to be a willful act of historical ignorance, so let me be clear about what I mean in the case of Bill Self's program. I'm not saying that streak is over. I am saying for it to continue, it may have to be a case where three teams tie at 12-6, because without Jeff Withey, Ben McLemore, Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford, I can't envision KU uncorking another 14-4 run through the league. Withey and Releford were the heart and soul of this outstanding defense and McLemore was far and away the team's most effective scorer (even if he had to be reminded of that fact at times).
Self has shown time and time again that he can replace large talent losses and certainly a top-15 recruit such as Wayne Selden is a start. But right now I'm not seeing how the 2013-14 roster plays its way to another No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Illinois Fighting Illini
It may be difficult for John Groce to get his program into a second consecutive NCAA tournament in 2014. Groce has top-100 recruits Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill coming to Champaign next season, but the Illini are losing four seniors in Brandon Paul, D.J. Richardson, Tyler Griffey and Sam McLaurin.
Paul and Richardson took the bulk of this offense's shots for the past two seasons. There were times in 2012-13 when Griffey was the only Illinois player on the floor who could make a 3. (Just as there were times when Griffey couldn't make a 3 to save his life. The young man was nothing if not compelling.) And McLaurin was a strong offensive rebounder who added depth to an otherwise thin frontcourt. In their very different ways, each player will be tough to replace. The good news for Illini fans is, with only one senior on the roster in 2013-14 (Joseph Bertrand), the following season projects to be one worth waiting for.
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Picking the All-Defensive Team
More than any award, with the possible exception of MVP, the All-Defensive Team is really a team award. Both strong individual defenders and a good system are necessary for a quality defense, and the same defender can look far better or far worse depending on players around him. So it's no surprise that six of the 10 players on my All-Defensive first and second teams come from three teams, all of them elite at the defensive end. And it should also be no surprise that the top two contenders among a deep field of Defensive Player of the Year candidates come from the league's top two defenses.
While former Insider John Hollinger's All-Defensive picks were an annual Per Diem feature, I've been selecting All-D teams on various websites dating back to 2005-06. Over those eight years, I can't remember a time when Defensive Player of the Year was such an open race. Runner-up Serge Ibaka was close to Tyson Chandler last season, but Dwight Howard was the only other serious candidate. This season, an argument can be made for at least five centers and more than a half-dozen players overall.
Ultimately, Roy Hibbert of the Indiana Pacers and Marc Gasol of the Memphis Grizzlies stood out from the field. They anchor the No. 1 and No. 2 defenses in the NBA, respectively. And though both big men benefit from coaches with proven defensive schemes and quality teammates on the perimeter, they are the most important cogs in those stingy defenses.
In the modern NBA, a quality defender in the middle is as important as ever. As Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry found in a study with Eric Weiss presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (PDF), the deterrent effect of keeping opponents away from the rim is real and often as important as the shots a Defensive Player of the Year candidate actually blocks. Though they didn't get as much attention as Howard, the study's inspiration, Gasol and Hibbert shined in the camera-tracking data.
So who gets the hardware? I'll reveal that along with the rest of my All-Defensive picks.
Point Guard
First Team: Avery Bradley, Boston Celtics
Second Team: Eric Bledsoe, Los Angeles Clippers
Honorable Mentions: Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies; George Hill, Indiana Pacers; Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs
Both Bradley, 22, and Bledsoe, 23, look like All-Defensive fixtures for the next decade. The only question is Bradley's position; he spent this season at point guard but will likely move back to shooting guard next season with the return of a healthy Rajon Rondo. Bradley's pressure was one of the biggest reasons the Celtics could overcome the loss of Rondo and serves to make life miserable for opposing ball handlers. If Bradley is the league's best when it comes to applying pressure on the ball, Bledsoe might be No. 2. He ranked third in the NBA in steal rate by creating a turnover on 3.7 percent of the plays he was on the floor. Those steals typically turned into lobs at the other end.
Conley and Hill are two of the league's most underrated players, in large part because their contributions at the defensive end are more difficult to quantify than the points and assists put up by offensive-minded point guards who give up equally gaudy numbers when they go on defense. Parker has made himself into a quality defender who surrenders nothing despite being undersized.
Shooting Guard
First Team: Tony Allen, Memphis Grizzlies
Second Team: Thabo Sefolosha, Oklahoma City Thunder
Honorable Mentions: Matt Barnes, Los Angeles Clippers; Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs; Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
It's difficult for a perimeter player to be the most valuable defender in the league because big men are involved in so many more plays, both by guarding their own man and providing help defense. Still, Allen has a strong case for Defensive Player of the Year. With him on the floor, Memphis allows fewer points per 100 possessions (94.2, per NBA.com/Stats) than any other combination of player and team. Allen is the rare one-on-one stopper who is also an excellent help defender, which is what separates him from Sefolosha, his equal when it comes to shutting down a high scorer. Allen is also in the NBA's top 10 in steal rate and terrific on the defensive glass for a guard.
The depth at small forward pushes Barnes to shooting guard, where he often finishes games. Barnes and Bledsoe have been an incredible defensive tandem for the Clippers, whose second unit far outshines the starters on defense. Green's excellent size for the backcourt and defense-first mindset have made him a quality defender since he emerged as a starter in San Antonio. Wade's focus on defense comes and goes, depending in part on his health. Nonetheless, there are few players who match Wade's ability to sense when to take a calculated gamble for a steal or a block.
Small Forward
First Team: Andre Iguodala, Denver Nuggets
Second Team: Paul George, Indiana Pacers
Honorable Mentions: LeBron James, Miami Heat; Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs; Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
Iguodala is Allen's peer when it comes to combining help defense and stopper ability. Always a phenomenal athlete, Iguodala has worked hard to scout opponents' tendencies to take his one-on-one defense to the next level. My only All-Defensive selection from a team outside the top 10 in defensive rating, he gets credit for improving Denver's ranking from 19th a year ago to 11th this season, one big reason the Nuggets have become contenders in the Western Conference.
George is another of the NBA's budding defensive stars. He embraces the challenge of defending high scorers and uses his long arms to play the passing lanes. George has been so good for the league's top defense that he bumps usual fixture James to the honorable mention ranks. More than in past seasons, James has saved his defensive intensity for when Miami needs him to shut down a hot opponent at any position. If you want to argue that his defensive versatility should put him on the First Team, I couldn't seriously disagree. James is the victim of having five good candidates for four spots on the wing.
Of the four Spurs who earned at least honorable mention notice, Leonard had the most impact on the San Antonio defense, which allowed 4.0 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor (per NBA.com/Stats). He has all the tools to be an All-Defensive pick in years to come. Pierce is at the other end of his career but remains a capable one-on-one defender and stepped up his defensive rebounding, smashing his career high by grabbing 19.7 percent of available misses, for the undersized Celtics.
Power Forward
First Team: Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
Second Team: Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
Honorable Mentions: Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls; Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder; Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks
Among the big men I considered for All-Defensive honors, Garnett had the most positive net defensive plus-minus. Boston allowed 7.4 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor (per NBA.com/Stats). To put that in context, the Celtics defended like the league's second-best team with Garnett and at an average rate without him. That's due in part to the lack of size behind Garnett, but it also reflects his continued mastery of pick-and-roll defense and ability to get teammates in the right place.
Like Garnett, Duncan has been a fixture on the All-Defensive Team for years and continues to excel at the defensive end. An improbable late-career resurgence has seen Duncan block shots at the best rate of his career at age 36, ranking him fifth in the league.
Some year, Gibson is going to play 2,000 minutes and bolster his All-Defensive credentials. Alas, injuries limited his court time this season. When Gibson did play, the Bulls allowed 4.7 fewer points per 100 possessions (per NBA.com/Stats). Ibaka is on his way to leading the NBA in blocks per game for the second consecutive season. However, the Thunder aren't any better defensively with him on the floor rather than backup (and defensive savant) Nick Collison. For all the frustration he causes his own team on offense, Smith creates nearly as much for opponents on defense at either forward position.
Center
First Team: Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
Second Team: Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers
Honorable Mention: Tyson Chandler, New York Knicks; Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls; Larry Sanders, Milwaukee Bucks
Before compiling the numbers, I figured Hibbert would be my Defensive Player of the Year pick. He leads an Indiana defense that is not only the best in the NBA this season but also one of the best in league history. The Pacers allow 7.3 percent fewer points per 100 possessions than league average, which would rank sixth since the NBA-ABA merger behind the 2003-04 Spurs, the 2007-08 Celtics, the 1992-93 and 1993-94 Knicks and the 2003-04 Pistons. Frank Vogel has built Indiana's scheme around Hibbert's ability to patrol the paint, which allows other Pacers defenders to stay home on 3-point shooters and force opponents to beat them with less efficient midrange attempts.
Nonetheless, it was impossible to ignore Gasol's all-around defensive brilliance. After all, the Spaniard is the captain of a Memphis defense that is outstanding in its own right. The Grizzlies' defensive rating is 5.7 percent better than league average, which ranks in the top 25 in post-merger history. Gasol excels in the post, allowing opponents just 0.65 points per play, according to mySynergySports.com. He's a fine shot-blocker, and he is much better at stepping out to defend on the perimeter than Hibbert, who rarely strays outside the paint. Add that up and Gasol has the narrow edge.
Chandler, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, has shown little drop-off aside from injuries. Surprisingly, however, a middling New York defense is no worse when Chandler is off the floor. Without departed backup Omer Asik as a security blanket, Noah has grown into the role of defensive anchor for the Bulls, who were far better defensively with him on the floor. He is a legitimate candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. So too is Sanders, who will finish second in the league in blocks per game in his first year as a starter. The numbers compiled by Goldsberry and Weiss show that Sanders' presence causes opponents to think twice about driving -- and struggle when they do so.
FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
Playoff races: Playing the odds
With three days remaining in the NBA regular season, nothing is settled in the Western Conference. Not one of the eight seeds in the West has been decided, and we still have nine teams battling for those eight spots. It's possible none of the four playoff matchups will be known until the late games Wednesday night.
By contrast, the Eastern Conference playoff picture is relatively clear. Six of the eight seeds are set, as are two series in the first round: the top-seeded Miami Heat taking on the No. 8 Milwaukee Bucks and the New York Knicks hosting the Boston Celtics in the 2-7 matchup.
To get an idea of how the remaining seeds and series might play out, let's take a closer look at each of the races with the help of my simulations of the remainder of the year.
Western Conference
The Race: 1-2 seeds
Combatants: Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs (1 GB)
Tiebreaker: Oklahoma City
Simulation: Oklahoma City 99.6 percent, San Antonio 0.4 percent
Sunday's win by the Los Angeles Lakers over the Spurs was tremendously helpful to the Thunder, who can now clinch home-court advantage throughout the Western Conference postseason by beating the Sacramento Kings in Oklahoma City tonight. The scenario for San Antonio to finish first would require the Thunder to stumble against Sacramento and Milwaukee at home while the Spurs won out at Golden State tonight and at home against Minnesota on Wednesday. That's not all going to happen, and Gregg Popovich might look to rest his starters tonight rather than push them in the second game of a back-to-back set.
The Race: 3-4-5 seeds
Combatants: Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers (1 GB), Memphis Grizzlies (1 GB)
Tiebreaker: Clippers win any tie; Denver over Memphis
Simulation: (3) Denver 71.6 percent, L.A. Clippers 28.0 percent, Memphis 0.4 percent
Saturday's Clippers win in Memphis was one of the season's biggest games. It not only gave the Clippers the inside track on home-court advantage should the two teams meet again in this year's opening round but also kept alive the Clippers' hopes of finishing third. Denver is still the heavy favorite for the third seed; if the Nuggets can win tonight in Milwaukee, they wrap up the schedule with a home gimme against the Phoenix Suns. The Clippers would need a Denver loss and to win out hosting Portland on Tuesday and visiting Sacramento on Wednesday in what is sure to be an emotional game.
If the Nuggets finish third, the Clippers would be the fourth seed and the Grizzlies fifth, but ,as I detailed on TrueHoop last week, home-court advantage would still be decided by record. Because the Clippers win any tie as division champs, two wins would secure home court one way or another. So Memphis needs help to get home-court advantage, and the Grizzlies also have the most difficult remaining schedule -- at Dallas tonight and home on Wednesday against a Utah team that might be fighting for its playoff life.
The Race: 6-7 seeds
Combatants: Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers
Tiebreaker: Houston
Simulation: Houston 71.6 percent, Golden State 26.7 percent, L.A. Lakers 1.7 percent
This one will go to the final night of the season. The Rockets have the tiebreaker, so they'll get the better seed if the teams have the same record over their last two games. Houston is on the road at Phoenix tonight and against the Lakers on Wednesday. Golden State hosts San Antonio tonight before finishing Wednesday in Phoenix. Simulation gives the Rockets a tiny edge in those games, although the motivation for the Spurs and possibly the Lakers remains in doubt.
Oh, by the way, don't count the Lakers out of this race just yet. If Houston loses Monday, the Lakers could pull even with a head-to-head win Wednesday that also would give them the tiebreaker. And if Golden State loses out, the Lakers could still conceivably finish with the sixth seed, believe it or not.
The Race: No. 8 seed
Combatants: Los Angeles Lakers, Utah Jazz (1.5 GB)
Tiebreaker: Utah
Simulation: L.A. Lakers 73.5 percent, Golden State 13.4 percent, Houston 7.1 percent, Utah 6.0 percent
It's not looking good for the Jazz, who have the most difficult remaining schedule of anyone in the West playoff picture, with road games at Minnesota tonight and at Memphis on Wednesday. The relatively healthy Timberwolves are no automatic win at home, especially after taking Utah down to the wire Friday in Salt Lake City. The simulation sees that game as nearly a toss-up, and a loss would eliminate the Jazz.
If Utah can overcome that obstacle, next up is a game against a Grizzlies team that likely will still be playing for home-court advantage. The Jazz need to sweep both games -- something the simulation shows happening 15.7 percent of the time -- and have the Rockets beat the Lakers on Wednesday to earn the right to be sacrificed to the No. 1 seed in the opening round. So it's now more likely that the Lakers will move up than that Utah will reach the playoffs.
Eastern Conference
The Race: 5-6 seeds
Combatants: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls (1 GB)
Tiebreaker: Chicago
Simulation: Atlanta 53.6 percent, Chicago 46.4 percent
The last undecided race in the East is the closest thing to a 50-50 battle left on the board. Of course, the simulation might not give an accurate read on the difficulty of Atlanta's season finale Wednesday in New York. The Knicks, locked into the No. 2 seed, might rest everyone, making it that much more difficult for the Bulls to make up the game they would need to tie the Hawks. Atlanta should be able to take care of business Tuesday at home against the Toronto Raptors, and two wins would sew up the 5-seed.
Chicago, meanwhile, has two games that are likely but not certain wins -- a visit to Orlando tonight and a home game against the Washington Wizards in the season finale. The Bulls will need to win both to have any legitimate hope of the fifth seed.
With three days remaining in the NBA regular season, nothing is settled in the Western Conference. Not one of the eight seeds in the West has been decided, and we still have nine teams battling for those eight spots. It's possible none of the four playoff matchups will be known until the late games Wednesday night.
By contrast, the Eastern Conference playoff picture is relatively clear. Six of the eight seeds are set, as are two series in the first round: the top-seeded Miami Heat taking on the No. 8 Milwaukee Bucks and the New York Knicks hosting the Boston Celtics in the 2-7 matchup.
To get an idea of how the remaining seeds and series might play out, let's take a closer look at each of the races with the help of my simulations of the remainder of the year.
Western Conference
The Race: 1-2 seeds
Combatants: Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs (1 GB)
Tiebreaker: Oklahoma City
Simulation: Oklahoma City 99.6 percent, San Antonio 0.4 percent
Sunday's win by the Los Angeles Lakers over the Spurs was tremendously helpful to the Thunder, who can now clinch home-court advantage throughout the Western Conference postseason by beating the Sacramento Kings in Oklahoma City tonight. The scenario for San Antonio to finish first would require the Thunder to stumble against Sacramento and Milwaukee at home while the Spurs won out at Golden State tonight and at home against Minnesota on Wednesday. That's not all going to happen, and Gregg Popovich might look to rest his starters tonight rather than push them in the second game of a back-to-back set.
The Race: 3-4-5 seeds
Combatants: Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers (1 GB), Memphis Grizzlies (1 GB)
Tiebreaker: Clippers win any tie; Denver over Memphis
Simulation: (3) Denver 71.6 percent, L.A. Clippers 28.0 percent, Memphis 0.4 percent
Saturday's Clippers win in Memphis was one of the season's biggest games. It not only gave the Clippers the inside track on home-court advantage should the two teams meet again in this year's opening round but also kept alive the Clippers' hopes of finishing third. Denver is still the heavy favorite for the third seed; if the Nuggets can win tonight in Milwaukee, they wrap up the schedule with a home gimme against the Phoenix Suns. The Clippers would need a Denver loss and to win out hosting Portland on Tuesday and visiting Sacramento on Wednesday in what is sure to be an emotional game.
If the Nuggets finish third, the Clippers would be the fourth seed and the Grizzlies fifth, but ,as I detailed on TrueHoop last week, home-court advantage would still be decided by record. Because the Clippers win any tie as division champs, two wins would secure home court one way or another. So Memphis needs help to get home-court advantage, and the Grizzlies also have the most difficult remaining schedule -- at Dallas tonight and home on Wednesday against a Utah team that might be fighting for its playoff life.
The Race: 6-7 seeds
Combatants: Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers
Tiebreaker: Houston
Simulation: Houston 71.6 percent, Golden State 26.7 percent, L.A. Lakers 1.7 percent
This one will go to the final night of the season. The Rockets have the tiebreaker, so they'll get the better seed if the teams have the same record over their last two games. Houston is on the road at Phoenix tonight and against the Lakers on Wednesday. Golden State hosts San Antonio tonight before finishing Wednesday in Phoenix. Simulation gives the Rockets a tiny edge in those games, although the motivation for the Spurs and possibly the Lakers remains in doubt.
Oh, by the way, don't count the Lakers out of this race just yet. If Houston loses Monday, the Lakers could pull even with a head-to-head win Wednesday that also would give them the tiebreaker. And if Golden State loses out, the Lakers could still conceivably finish with the sixth seed, believe it or not.
The Race: No. 8 seed
Combatants: Los Angeles Lakers, Utah Jazz (1.5 GB)
Tiebreaker: Utah
Simulation: L.A. Lakers 73.5 percent, Golden State 13.4 percent, Houston 7.1 percent, Utah 6.0 percent
It's not looking good for the Jazz, who have the most difficult remaining schedule of anyone in the West playoff picture, with road games at Minnesota tonight and at Memphis on Wednesday. The relatively healthy Timberwolves are no automatic win at home, especially after taking Utah down to the wire Friday in Salt Lake City. The simulation sees that game as nearly a toss-up, and a loss would eliminate the Jazz.
If Utah can overcome that obstacle, next up is a game against a Grizzlies team that likely will still be playing for home-court advantage. The Jazz need to sweep both games -- something the simulation shows happening 15.7 percent of the time -- and have the Rockets beat the Lakers on Wednesday to earn the right to be sacrificed to the No. 1 seed in the opening round. So it's now more likely that the Lakers will move up than that Utah will reach the playoffs.
Eastern Conference
The Race: 5-6 seeds
Combatants: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls (1 GB)
Tiebreaker: Chicago
Simulation: Atlanta 53.6 percent, Chicago 46.4 percent
The last undecided race in the East is the closest thing to a 50-50 battle left on the board. Of course, the simulation might not give an accurate read on the difficulty of Atlanta's season finale Wednesday in New York. The Knicks, locked into the No. 2 seed, might rest everyone, making it that much more difficult for the Bulls to make up the game they would need to tie the Hawks. Atlanta should be able to take care of business Tuesday at home against the Toronto Raptors, and two wins would sew up the 5-seed.
Chicago, meanwhile, has two games that are likely but not certain wins -- a visit to Orlando tonight and a home game against the Washington Wizards in the season finale. The Bulls will need to win both to have any legitimate hope of the fifth seed.
Five moves to fix the Lakers
Kobe Bryant underwent surgery to repair his torn Achilles tendon on Saturday, less than 24 hours after suffering the injury. Although the surgery to fix Bryant seemed relatively quick and straightforward, the procedure to fix the Lakers will be much more lengthy and complicated.
They are hopelessly capped out and, as luxury-tax payers, have extremely limited avenues to improve a team that was struggling to secure the No. 8 seed for the Western Conference playoffs even with Bryant.
However, the Lakers are set up to have tremendous cap flexibility in 2014, when only Steve Nash and (assuming he agrees to a new contract) Dwight Howard will be on the books. That's the same offseason when, potentially, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh could all hit the free-agent market. Ideally, the Lakers would like to improve themselves as much as possible in the short term without jeopardizing any of their long-term flexibility.
On Saturday, I wrote about how the Lakers should release Bryant via the amnesty provision, which would bring the team payroll below the tax threshold. This would provide the franchise with immediate short-term tax relief and reinstate its ability to use the midlevel and biannual exceptions, as well as saving the Lakers from future repeater tax penalties.
By exercising their amnesty rights on Bryant, then waiving Nash in 2014 under the "stretch" provision, the Lakers can set themselves up to have almost $30 million in cap space in 2014. That's enough space to perhaps add one max free agent, and possibly still have enough left over to re-sign Bryant at a reasonable number.
Historically, the Lakers organization has been able to continuously attract marquee free agents and stay relevant as a title contender from generation to generation. The Lakers have signed Shaquille O'Neal as a free agent, traded for Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Howard, as well as acquired draft picks that turned into Magic Johnson, James Worthy and Bryant. These moves illustrate the Lakers' ability to repeatedly reinvent themselves. Taking the following steps will set up the Lakers for what could be an epic rebuild in 2014 and allow them to reinvent themselves once again.
Still, there's a 2013-14 season to be played, so here's how they can remain competitive next season without jeopardizing that dream 2014 offseason. For this exercise, we must assume two things: The Lakers have completed the Bryant amnesty and have re-signed Howard to the maximum allowable salary deal.
1. Clean up the end of roster
As their roster stands, the Lakers are looking at a payroll of about $69.7 million, which would put them $2.3 million below the projected tax threshold of $72 million. Thanks to a wrinkle in the CBA called "the tax apron," the Lakers actually can spend up to $76 million and still retain the salary cap-options and trade flexibilities of a non-taxpayer (although they'd still be responsible for the taxes due for salaries above the $72 million threshold). That means they would not be able to use their midlevel exception ($5.15 million) and biannual exception ($2.0 million) without shedding some more salary first. This is achieved by:
Renouncing all free agents except Earl Clark: This clears the cap holds on the books that would bring the Lakers' cap number higher than $69.7 million. Having Clark's Bird rights allows the Lakers to either sign him to a deal without using one of the exceptions or include him in a sign-and-trade deal to another team (perhaps in a Pau Gasol trade package).
Waiving Chris Duhon: Duhon is on the books for $3.75 million but is guaranteed only $1.5 million if he is waived by June 30. This brings L.A.'s cap number to $67.4 million
Declining Jodie Meeks' team option: This doesn't necessarily preclude Meeks from coming back in 2013-14; the Lakers would still be able to re-sign him to a smaller deal afterward. But by declining Meeks' $1.55 million option, L.A.'s cap number further reduces to $65.6 million.
2. Maximize the exceptions
Now at $65.6 million, the Lakers have more than $10 million under the $76 million tax apron. That enables them to use their full midlevel and biannual exceptions, sign a second-round pick, and still have enough left to either re-sign Clark to a deal starting at just under $2.5 million, or sign three players to the veteran's minimum.
Understand the exceptions cannot be combined (you can't sign a player for $7.15 million using midlevel and biannual), but they can be divided (use midlevel to sign one player at $3.15 million and the other at $2.0 million). Effective scouting becomes prominent at this point: It is crucial to know the value of players at all levels (college, international, NBA) when figuring out the best way to allocate the scarce resources available.
Should the Lakers opt to roll the dice and spend the entire midlevel exception on one player, they probably would want to spend it on a perimeter scorer. The catch is, they would offer it for only one year, or including future seasons either partially or fully unguaranteed. This probably would eliminate them from the running for a player such as J.R. Smith, who can opt out of his contract this offseason. Rather, here are some alternatives who should come even cheaper than midlevel (UFA=unrestricted free agent, RFA=restricted free agent):
Nick Young | G | UFA: He's an explosive scorer and a streaky shooter but brings little else to the table. He fits the profile of the hired gun you wouldn't want on your team longer than a year.
Dorell Wright | F | UFA: Young's Philadelphia 76ers teammate has been an accomplished wing defender in the league (an area of need for the Lakers) but also is a tremendous spacer (shooting 37 percent from 3-point range this season).
Bo McCalebb | G | Fenerbahce Ulker, Turkish League: He's still under contract, but rolling the dice on the guy many consider to be the best player not in the NBA is worth it. McCalebb is an accomplished scorer and is tremendous at the pick-and-roll. He's scheduled to make about $2.1 million in Europe next year, so the Lakers might end up giving him more to make it worth his while (and help pay for the buyout).
Biannual exceptions
As with the midlevel, the Lakers can divide this exception up to sign multiple players or use it all on one. The aim here is to upgrade the caliber of the rotation players.
Anthony Morrow | G | UFA: He hasn't played much this season, but he's one of the best pure shooters in the NBA, a skill set that should flourish with the Lakers' offense.
Dahntay Jones |G/F | UFA: The irony of his "replacing" Bryant is not lost upon me, but Jones is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA, and he wouldn't be the first Kobe antagonist to sign with the Lakers (Matt Barnes, Metta World Peace).
Lamar Odom | F | UFA: Odom is far past his prime but can still help the Lakers as a backup big off the bench, particularly if Clark is not with the team next year. He's still a solid rebounder and playmaker, a skill set that would work very well playing alongside Howard.
3. Shrewd minimum deals
Every year, there are numerous players looking for an opportunity to show they can play. These might be productive vets or younger players who could help fill out the Lakers' roster.
Sam Young | G/F | UFA: A fringe rotation player in Indiana, Young is perhaps most famous for the most exaggerated pump fake in the history of the NBA. He's also starting to make a name for himself as a defensive option who can score the ball.
Keith Bogans | G/F| UFA: The old reliable vet who does all the little things, Bogans is a tough perimeter defender, and he has improved his perimeter shot considerably, especially left-corner 3s, where he's hitting about 38 percent.
Leandro Barbosa | G | UFA: He's rehabbing from a torn ACL but should be ready by start of training camp. His scoring talents, as well as his familiarity with the Lakers' system, should make him an easy fit.
4. Shop at the 'thrift store'
In addition to all the restricted and unrestricted free agents, there are always serviceable players who have been released because of partial or non-guarantees or declined team options, most often by teams looking to clear space under the tax threshold or to clear cap space. These players might be signed with either one of the above exceptions:
DeShawn Stevenson | G | non-guaranteed: He's a tough defender, and a competent 3-point shooter.
Patrick Beverley | G | non-guaranteed: Beverley's a pesky defender, a great athlete and a good 3-point shooter.
DeAndre Liggins | G/F | non-guaranteed: I wrote about him earlier this year; he has a chance to be a tremendous defensive wing and is improving as a 3-point shooter.
5. Draft well
The Lakers currently have a mid-second-round draft pick. If Memphis ends up with a top-five record (which happens if it leapfrogs the Clippers or the Nuggets in the standings), the Lakers receive the Grizzlies' second-rounder, as well.
Each of these picks presumably should sign for the rookie minimum (approximately $490,000 each), which would free up even more space for the Lakers to spend on veteran rotation players.
FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
FreedS[ohh]lave;3926928 said:
Big Board: Noel holds firm at No. 1
A lot has happened since our last Big Board update two weeks ago.
The college basketball season is over. Some underclassmen are declaring for the draft, while others are returning to school. The first NBA draft camp, the Portsmouth Invitational, is finished. NBA prospects are heading to gyms around the country, training for the NBA draft combine in mid-May.
Here's our latest take on the top 30 prospects for the 2013 draft after talking to NBA GMs and scouts.
1
Nerlens Noel
SCHOOL: Kentucky
CLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-11, 215POS: C
10.5 PPG9.5 RPG4.4 BPG
Noel clings to the top spot of our 2013 Top 100, a position he's held for 37 of 41 weeks. Looking at our various lottery mock draft scenarios, Noel comes out as the No. 1 pick in 65.9 percent of the scenarios generated. Those are pretty good odds. The three team scenarios in which Noel isn't ranked No. 1 are with the Orlando Magic, New Orleans Hornets and Detroit Pistons, based primarily on team needs.
2
Marcus Smart
SCHOOL: OK St.
CLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-4, 225POS: PG
15.4 PPG4.2 APG40 FG%
Although Smart has been in our top three for months, he also could be the first player taken if the Orlando Magic or New Orleans Hornets somehow got the No. 1 pick. He has yet to say whether he will enter the NBA draft, and sources are split on whether he's returning to the Cowboys for his sophomore season.
Smart said a week and a half ago via Twitter: "Rumors about me staying and rumors about me leaving are just rumors -- still have not decided." If Smart returns to college, Trey Burke would be the No. 1 point guard off the board. If he leaves, he still might have to fend off a surging Burke for the honor of being the first point guard taken in the draft.
3
Ben McLemore
SCHOOL: Kansas
CLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-5, 195POS: SG
15.8 PPG5.3 RPG2.0 APG
McLemore declared for the draft last week, and Kansas head coach Bill Self raved about McLemore's potential. "I don't think he's [even] scratched the surface of what he can be. And I think that's an NBA All-Star." To that end, the humble McLemore acknowledged he has to be more aggressive. "Growing up, I wasn't that kid who was a fighter." Those two quotes sum up McLemore in a nutshell. He possesses enormous potential but has to want it. If the aggressiveness were there on a more regular basis, he'd be the No. 1 pick in this draft hands down.
4
Otto Porter Jr.
SCHOOL: G'town
CLASS: So.HT/WT: 6-8, 200POS: SF
16.2 PPG7.5 RPG2.7 APG
Porter announced Monday he was declaring for the 2013 NBA draft. For many NBA scouts, he's the best small forward in the draft (and the No. 1-ranked small forward on our Big Board for the past few months). Teams such as the Detroit Pistons, Phoenix Suns and Washington Wizards would be terrific fits for Porter.
5
Anthony Bennett
SCHOOL: UNLV
CLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-8, 240POS: PF
16.1 PPG8.1 RPG1.0 APG
There was a little buzz last week about Bennett's revelation that he suffered from asthma. But NBA teams have learned the hard way not to wring their hands much over it. Two years ago Kenneth Faried dropped a few spots in the draft because of concern over his asthma. Now? Faried flies around the court in Denver as though he has the healthiest lungs on the planet. In short, the revelation should do little to hurt Bennett's draft stock.
6
Victor Oladipo
SCHOOL: Indiana
Class: Jr.HT/WT: 6-5, 214POS: SG
13.6 PPG6.3 RPG2.1 APG
Oladipo's news conference couldn't have been more different from McLemore's. They happened on the same day, but although McLemore was quiet and reclusive, Oladipo exuded intensity as he declared for the NBA draft -- the same intensity that has attracted scouts to his game. I compared and contrasted their two games in my blog last week. McLemore is clearly the more gifted shooter, but Oladipo brings so many other things to the table that some scouts ultimately think he'll be the better player of the two. The fact that they're both basically the same age (Oladipo is just 9 months older than McLemore) adds to Oladipo's upside.
7
Trey Burke
SCHOOL: Michigan
CLASS: So.HT/WT: 6-0, 190POS: PG
18.6 PPG3.2 RPG6.7 APG
Burke finished the season with a bang. Although Michigan didn't win the national championship, Burke was stellar, scoring 24 points, grabbing four rebounds and handing out three assists. He tried to do what all great point guards do -- will his team to the title. Size is the biggest issue for him, but most scouts are focused on what he brings to the table right now. My colleague David Thorpe has made an impassioned case about why Burke should be the No. 1 overall pick. I'm not sure that most NBA folks see it that way, but Thorpe's main point is sound: Most teams regret passing on great college point guards for unproven bigs.
8
Alex Len
SCHOOL: Maryland
CLASS: So.HT/WT: 7-1, 225POS: C
11.9 PPG7.8 RPG1.0 BPG
Len was up and down most of the season, but he ended with a few strong games in the NIT. His last two -- a 15-point, 13-rebound, five-block performance against Alabama, followed by a 16-point, nine-rebound, six-block game against Iowa -- gave scouts a glimpse at what he can do when he's given a chance to score. Now that Len is in the draft, watch him closely. Bigs tend to rise as the draft approaches, and Len is already generating some late buzz.
9
Shabazz Muhammad
SCHOOL: UCLA
CLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-6, 225POS: SF
17.8 PPG5.3 RPG38 3PT%
Editor's note: Muhammad's capsule was updated after he declared for the NBA draft Tuesday.
Muhammad announced Tuesday that he's declaring for the 2013 NBA draft. Muhammad came into the season ranked by many as a top-three pick. Now he's barely clinging to the top 10. Will he break his fall when he gets into workouts?
"I'm not sure it will," one NBA scout told ESPN.com. "The more you break down the game film, the more problems you see. When you factor in the baggage he's carrying with him, I think there's a chance he could continue to slide."
However, not everyone thinks that way. Said another GM: "The draft is weak at the top, and Muhammad does something very few guys in this draft do ... he scores. That should keep him pretty high."
10
Michael Carter-Williams
SCHOOL: Syracuse
CLASS: So.HT/WT: 6-5, 175POS: PG
11.9 PPG4.9 APG39.3 FG%
After a stellar first four rounds of the NCAA tourney, Carter-Williams hit a snag in the Final Four against Michigan. He struggled to score (just two points on 1-for-6 shooting), committed five turnovers and collected just two assists. Some scouts wrote it off as a bad game, while others are worried. Also, he will turn 22 before the NBA season begins. Either way, Carter-Williams still should go somewhere in the late lottery to mid-first round.
11
Cody Zeller
SCHOOL: Indiana
CLASS: So.HT/WT: 6-11, 210POS: C
16.5 PPG8.1 RPG56.2 FG%
I'm not sure Zeller made the right decision to declare for the draft. His stock has been in decline all season, and he ended the season terribly. It felt like he could've gone back to school for a season and improved his perimeter game. Right now, many scouts see him as a tweener in the NBA.
12
Gary Harris
SCHOOL: Mich. St.
Class: Fr.HT/WT: 6-4, 210POS: SG
12.9 PPG2.5 RPG46 FG%
We continue to hear that Harris is leaning toward staying in school and electing for shoulder surgery this summer, which could keep him out three to four months. If he does declare, he'll be a late lottery pick. But if he can get back to full health and have a great sophomore season, he could go even higher in 2014.
13
C.J. McCollum
SCHOOL: Lehigh
CLASS: Sr.HT/WT: 6-3, 190POS: SG
23.9 PPG2.9 APG52 3PT%
This past week I surveyed a number of GMs to get a feel for how many of them were projecting McCollum as a point guard and how many had him pegged as a shooting guard. I thought the vote would be much closer, but more than 80 percent of GMs I contacted had him as a point guard in the NBA. If he's healthy enough to work out and shows off more of those point guard skills, his stock could be one tier higher by the draft.
14
Glenn Robinson III
SCHOOL: Michigan
CLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-6, 210POS: SF
10.7 PPG5.4 RPG1.2 APG
Robinson has a tough choice ahead of him. On one hand, he has the prototypical skill set for an NBA small forward, is coming off a stellar season at Michigan and generally performed well in the NCAA tournament. On the other hand, Robinson still isn't totally ready, and another season at Michigan would probably do him some good. Right now, he's still 50-50 on entering the draft.
15
Mitch McGary
SCHOOL: Michigan
CLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-10, 250POS: PF
7.5 PPG6.3 RPG59.8 FG%
McGary's bandwagon slowed down in a big way after he struggled against Louisville in the national championship game. But overall, no one had a more magical run through the tournament, and McGary's stock is clearly higher than it might ever be. If a team would take him in the lottery, why wouldn't he go?
16
Kelly Olynyk
SCHOOL: Gonzaga
Class: Jr.HT/WT: 7-0, 238POS: C
17.5 PPG7.2 RPG65 FG%
We continue to wait for Olynyk to officially declare for the 2013 NBA draft. Scouts are clearly interested in Olynyk's unusual game and are eager to get him into workouts. "If he can outplay the other bigs in his draft range, I think he'll move into the top 10," one scout said. "His game this year suggested that, but the lack of competition gave us pause. There's a lot there to like."
17
Gorgui Dieng
SCHOOL: Louisville
CLASS: Jr.HT/WT: 6-11, 235POS: C
9.8 PPG9.4 RPG2.5 BPG
Dieng helped himself immensely with his strong play for Louisville in the NCAA title game against Michigan. Not only did he slow down a red-hot Mitch McGary, he also scored eight points, grabbed eight rebounds, blocked three shots and handed out six assists. Dieng's passing ability out of the high post is an especially attractive attribute that has moved him into the mid-first round despite his age (23).
18
Mason Plumlee
SCHOOL: Duke
CLASS: Sr.HT/WT: 6-10, 230POS: PF
17.2 PPG10.2 RPG 2 BPG
Plumlee had a breakout senior season, but his improvement already is beginning to fade. He's likely to see constant matchups in workouts against Kelly Olynyk, Jeff Withey and Gorgui Dieng. Although Plumlee is the best athlete of the group, he's also the smallest. Withey and Dieng are superior shot-blockers. Olynyk is the most skilled offensively. It will be interesting to see whether Plumlee separates himself during the workout process.
19
Dario Saric
COUNTRY: Croatia
Age: 18HT/WT: 6-10, 223POS: SF
7.7 PPG6.2 RPG2.1 APG
As we first reported in our last Big Board update two weeks ago, Saric will declare for the 2013 NBA draft. There was some confusion based on an international interview he gave recently, but the word is Saric's quote was taken out of context. Saric wants to be a lottery pick, and if current projections hold true, he's likely to withdraw from the draft at the deadline. However, the draft is weak, and a number of lottery teams see Saric as a possible "stash-and-develop" pick.
If a team commits to him in the lottery, he will likely stay in. While his numbers in the Adriatic League weren't very good this season, his play has improved during the Croatian playoffs. Last week he had 20 points, 11 rebounds, three blocks and two steals against Zagreb -- while playing point guard -- and 14 points, 14 rebounds, three steals and two assists against Sinj on April 8.
20
Jamaal Franklin
SCHOOL: San Diego St.
Class: Jr.HT/WT: 6-5, 195POS: SG
16.7 PPG9.5 RPG3.2 APG
Franklin declared for the NBA draft last week and should be interesting in workouts. Although his game is awkward for NBA draft workouts -- he doesn't shoot well and isn't really a drills type of player -- he will be popular because of his defensive abilities and elite athleticism. Franklin was the only player in Division I this season to lead his team in points, rebounds, assists and steals.
21
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
SCHOOL: Georgia
Class: So.HT/WT: 6-5, 205POS: SG
18.5 PPG7.1 RPG1.8 APG
On Monday, Caldwell-Pope announced he was declaring for the NBA draft. Caldwell-Pope played on a team bereft of talent and often was the sole focus of opposing defenses. He still managed to average 18.5 PPG and shoot 37 percent from 3. He's a very good athlete and an excellent rebounder for a guard, and he isn't afraid to take over the game in the final moments. He could go anywhere from the late lottery to mid-first round. After McLemore and McCollum are off the board, he's probably the best guard prospect on the board who can shoot.
22
Jeff Withey
SCHOOL: Kansas
Class: Sr.HT/WT: 7-0, 235POS: C
13.6 PPG8.4 RPG3.8 BPG
Withey has been hanging around the 20s on our Big Board all season, but he could move up in the draft with good workouts against his primary competition, which includes Olynyk, Plumlee and Dieng. Of that group, he's the best natural shot-blocker and, more importantly, knows how to stay out of foul trouble -- a must for young bigs in the NBA.
23
Rudy Gobert
COUNTRY: France
AGE: 20HT/WT: 7-1, 220POS: PF
8.1 PPG5.2 RPG1.5 BPG
Gobert has continued his solid play for Cholet. In two games since our last update, he's averaged six points and six rebounds per game. However, scouts remain mixed about Gobert's place in the draft. His age and incredible 7-foot-9 wingspan put him in a class with only Nerlens Noel. In terms of skills, he's very raw, more than all of the other bigs on this list. Will someone be willing to pass on a known to take a chance on an unknown?
24
Steven Adams
SCHOOL: Pittsburgh
CLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 7-0, 240POS: C
7.0 PPG6.2 RPG56 FG%
Adams told reporters at the end of the regular season he was returning to Pittsburgh for his sophomore season. He then reversed course and decided to enter the draft. It's a curious decision. Adams, a native of New Zealand, is still getting a feel for the American game, and many NBA scouts thought another season in college could propel him into the lottery. However, given his raw upside and defensive abilities, he remains a likely first-round pick.
25
Isaiah Austin
SCHOOL: Baylor
CLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 7-0, 215POS: PF
13.0 PPG8.3 RPG1.7 BPG
Austin finished the season strong, helping Baylor win the NIT championship. He had 14 points and 10 rebounds against BYU in the semifinal game and 15 points, nine rebounds, four assists, five blocks and two steals against Iowa in the championship game. If those numbers were put up in the NCAA tournament, his stock might be back up into the lottery, but it's hard to get a big bump in stock from the NIT.
26
James Michael McAdoo
SCHOOL: UNC
CLASS: So.HT/WT: 6-9, 223POS: PF
14.4 PPG7.4 RPG1.1 APG
We're still waiting to hear whether McAdoo will return for his junior season. Teammate P.J. Hairston already has announced he is returning to school and was just a few spots behind McAdoo on the Big Board. McAdoo has intriguing athletic abilities but struggled in part because he played out of position most of the season. It was telling that virtually every scout I spoke with felt McAdoo needed to return to school.
27
Allen Crabbe
SCHOOL: Cal
Class: Jr.HT/WT: 6-6, 210POS: SG
18.7 PPG6.0 RPG2.6 APG
Crabbe officially declared for the NBA draft and will start the process of prepping for the draft. While he won't have to work on his jump shot, teams are concerned a bit about his average athleticism. That could be a major area of focus for him in preparing for the NBA draft combine in Chicago. If he looks more explosive vertically and laterally, it would help his stock.
28
Shane Larkin
SCHOOL: Miami
Class: So.HT/WT: 5-11, 176POS: PG
14.5 PPG3.8 RPG4.6 APG
Larkin still is weighing his options. On one hand, he could follow the Trey Burke model -- return to school and improve his game, possibly become a late lottery to mid-first round pick. On the other hand, Miami is losing almost all of its top players, so it won't be competing for a championship the way Michigan was. If Miami struggled, would Larkin's stock actually drop?
29
Glen Rice Jr.
NBA D-League
AGE: 22HT/WT: 6-5, 206POS: SG
13.0 PPG6.2 RPG39 3P%
Watch out for Rice. His dad was a big-time scorer, and after struggling for a couple of seasons at Georgia Tech, Rice Jr. has been dominating the D-League with the Rio Grande Vipers the past two months. In his first two games during the D-League playoffs, Rice is averaging 27 PPG, 10 RPG and 3.5 APG. Say what you will about the D-League, but those are very impressive numbers, and more and more NBA scouts and GMs are taking notice.
30
Sergey Karasev
COUNTRY: Russia
AGE: 19HT/WT: 6-7, 205POS: SG
16.1 PPG3.0 RPG49 3P%
Karasev has been terrific for Triumph in the Russian League this season. He's averaged 16 PPG in Eurocup play and 18.4 PPG in the Russian League. He's another point forward type of wing with a high basketball IQ and a nose for scoring the basketball. When his 3-point shot is falling, he's very dangerous from anywhere on the floor. A strong performance at the Nike Hoop Summit this weekend could push him up even higher on our Big Board.
Isaiah Austin
SCHOOL: Baylor
CLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 7-0, 215POS: PF
13.0 PPG8.3 RPG1.7 BPG
Austin finished the season strong, helping Baylor win the NIT championship. He had 14 points and 10 rebounds against BYU in the semifinal game and 15 points, nine rebounds, four assists, five blocks and two steals against Iowa in the championship game. If those numbers were put up in the NCAA tournament, his stock might be back up into the lottery, but it's hard to get a big bump in stock from the NIT.
26
James Michael McAdoo
SCHOOL: UNC
CLASS: So.HT/WT: 6-9, 223POS: PF
14.4 PPG7.4 RPG1.1 APG
We're still waiting to hear whether McAdoo will return for his junior season. Teammate P.J. Hairston already has announced he is returning to school and was just a few spots behind McAdoo on the Big Board. McAdoo has intriguing athletic abilities but struggled in part because he played out of position most of the season. It was telling that virtually every scout I spoke with felt McAdoo needed to return to school.
27
Allen Crabbe
SCHOOL: Cal
Class: Jr.HT/WT: 6-6, 210POS: SG
18.7 PPG6.0 RPG2.6 APG
Crabbe officially declared for the NBA draft and will start the process of prepping for the draft. While he won't have to work on his jump shot, teams are concerned a bit about his average athleticism. That could be a major area of focus for him in preparing for the NBA draft combine in Chicago. If he looks more explosive vertically and laterally, it would help his stock.
28
Shane Larkin
SCHOOL: Miami
Class: So.HT/WT: 5-11, 176POS: PG
14.5 PPG3.8 RPG4.6 APG
Larkin still is weighing his options. On one hand, he could follow the Trey Burke model -- return to school and improve his game, possibly become a late lottery to mid-first round pick. On the other hand, Miami is losing almost all of its top players, so it won't be competing for a championship the way Michigan was. If Miami struggled, would Larkin's stock actually drop?
29
Glen Rice Jr.
NBA D-League
AGE: 22HT/WT: 6-5, 206POS: SG
13.0 PPG6.2 RPG39 3P%
Watch out for Rice. His dad was a big-time scorer, and after struggling for a couple of seasons at Georgia Tech, Rice Jr. has been dominating the D-League with the Rio Grande Vipers the past two months. In his first two games during the D-League playoffs, Rice is averaging 27 PPG, 10 RPG and 3.5 APG. Say what you will about the D-League, but those are very impressive numbers, and more and more NBA scouts and GMs are taking notice.
30
Sergey Karasev
COUNTRY: Russia
AGE: 19HT/WT: 6-7, 205POS: SG
16.1 PPG3.0 RPG49 3P%
Karasev has been terrific for Triumph in the Russian League this season. He's averaged 16 PPG in Eurocup play and 18.4 PPG in the Russian League. He's another point forward type of wing with a high basketball IQ and a nose for scoring the basketball. When his 3-point shot is falling, he's very dangerous from anywhere on the floor. A strong performance at the Nike Hoop Summit this weekend could push him up even higher on our Big Board.
STAN JONES
Fire John Harbaugh
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A season bitten by the injury bug
From Andrew Bynum to Derrick Rose, from Rajon Rondo to most recently Kobe Bryant, the 2012-13 NBA season has been defined as much by who has been absent compared to who has actually been on the court. Although there haven't necessarily been any more injuries than usual, they have tended to strike atypically high-profile players.
Consider that Bryant is without question the greatest star ever to suffer a ruptured Achilles. A few other Hall of Famers have done so, including Nate "Tiny" Archibald some four decades ago and Dominique Wilkins more recently, but Bryant's injury might be the most serious ever suffered by an inner-circle Hall of Famer, at least one still playing at a high level.
Consider further that Rose is the only MVP ever to suffer a torn ACL, and although that injury technically happened last season, it continues to loom large this season. So, too, does Rondo's ACL tear. And the No. 1 overall pick of this year's NBA draft might even be used on a player with a torn ACL, Kentucky center Nerlens Noel.
The 15 members of last season's three All-NBA teams will combine to miss at least 297 games this season. Two years ago, the last time the league played an 82-game schedule, they combined to miss just 115 games -- an atypically low figure. Bynum (all 82 after his knees failed to respond to offseason surgery) and Kevin Love (64) will sit out more games together than all 15 All-NBA players from 2009-10 did the following season.
Injuries will continue to loom over the playoffs, with Bryant -- presuming the Lakers can hold on to their spot -- and Rondo both sitting out. Meanwhile, the debate about whether Rose will or should come back will continue to rage on until he suits up or the Chicago Bulls are eliminated, whichever comes first.
The injury database I've compiled with the help of volunteers Dirk van Duym and Joe Dombrowski covering the past four seasons can shed further light on the role of injuries in the 2012-13 campaign.
Besides those missing in action during the postseason, injuries have also played an important role in determining which teams made the postseason. Bynum's absence turned the Philadelphia 76ers from a team expected to contend in the Atlantic Division to a lottery club. Based on Bynum's SCHOENE projection, his injury alone cost the Sixers 13.3 wins above replacement, making it the second-most costly injury in the league after Rose's torn ACL (15.8 WARP). Although it probably wasn't reasonable to expect Bynum to play a full season given his history of knee problems, 13 wins would be enough to lift Philadelphia into the race for the fifth seed.
If the Lakers miss the playoffs, they can also point to injuries as a culprit. They rank in the league's top 10 in games, minutes and wins lost to injury. Besides Bryant's ruptured Achilles, the Lakers have seen all four other starters miss time due to injuries, while key reserve Jordan Hill was lost to hip surgery in early January. And the six games Dwight Howard has missed due to the torn labrum in his right shoulder don't reflect his limitations coming off back surgery last April.
More than anything, the injuries kept the Lakers from building chemistry as a team. According to NBA.com/Stats, their starting lineup played just 189 minutes together all season long. By contrast, the league's most common lineup (the Oklahoma City Thunder's starting five) has logged more than 1,300 minutes.
Of course, the Lakers will get no sympathy from the Minnesota Timberwolves. Injuries, starting with Love's preseason hand injury that never healed correctly, doomed the Timberwolves' chances of competing for their first playoff berth since 2004. All told, Minnesota players have missed 342 games due to injury, easily surpassing the previous high in my database (311 by the 2009-10 Portland Trail Blazers).
All five Timberwolves starters missed at least 18 games, or more than a fifth of the season, and their combined total of 203 games missed would put Minnesota in the league's top five in games lost without even considering the rest of the roster. The Timberwolves lost 15.1 wins above replacement to injuries, or more than nine wins more than the average team (5.8). Add nine wins to their total, and they would be competing for a .500 season.
At the other end of the spectrum, two teams in particular continue to distinguish themselves in terms of injury prevention. The work of the Phoenix Suns' training staff is well documented, and I highlighted it on Basketball Prospectus a year ago. Technically, Phoenix finished in the middle of the pack in games missed (126, 15th most), but this was entirely due to Channing Frye sitting out the season because of a heart issue (dilated cardiomyopathy). Jermaine O'Neal and Marcin Gortat were the lone other Suns to sit out more than five games, and that qualifies as miraculous in the case of the injury-plagued O'Neal, who was more effective on the court than he has been in years.
Alas, Frye's injury allowed the Thunder to surpass Phoenix as the team with the fewest games lost due to injury over the four-year span in my database. Oklahoma City has lost just 27 games this season, the league's lowest total, but more telling is that the Thunder lost 400 minutes due to injury -- barely a third of the next-lowest total (Sacramento Kings, 899).
The two 2011-12 All-NBA picks who did not miss any time due to injury this season were Oklahoma City stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Durant has missed 14 total games in his six-year career, while Westbrook has never sat out as either a pro or a collegian.
The Thunder benefit, surely, from having such a young core. Even the team's veterans, however, have shown remarkable durability. That's a credit to the athletic training staff led by Joe Sharpe, who was hired as head athletic trainer when the team moved to Oklahoma City in 2008.