Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

Duncan, Kobe, Shaq or KG best of their generation?

Is Duncan, Kobe, Shaq or KG the best player of their generation?



Fittingly, Tim Duncan quietly announcing his retirement Monday means he and Kobe Bryant will be headed to the Hall of Fame in the same year, 2021, when they'll surely be first-ballot inductees.

Along with the retired Shaquille O'Neal and forwards Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki, whose own Hall of Fame careers are winding down, Bryant and Duncan defined the generation of NBA players who entered the league in the 1990s and took up its torch after Michael Jordan's retirement(s).

With their careers either finished or all but complete, we can pose the question of who was that generation's best player: Bryant, Duncan or one of the other contenders?





Regular-season value


The first cut at measuring the performance of the best players who entered the league in the 1990s shows Duncan far and away tops on the leaderboard in my wins above replacement (WARP) statistic during the regular season.


Regular-season WARP
Player Seasons WARP WARP/Year
Tim Duncan 19 284 15.0
Shaquille O'Neal 19 265 13.9
Kevin Garnett 21 259 12.3
Jason Kidd 19 257 13.5
Kobe Bryant 20 219 10.9
Dirk Nowitzki 18 213 11.9


When I previously considered this question before the 2013 Finals, Duncan was even with Garnett and Jason Kidd and behind O'Neal. Since then, Duncan posted a combined 26 WARP in his final three seasons, compared with two for Garnett and four for Bryant in that span. That's a testament to Duncan's remarkable longevity. Only in his final season, at age 39, did Duncan fall below nine WARP in a season for the first time in his career.

Other metrics offer similar conclusions. Duncan tops players who entered in the league in the 1990s (and ranks sixth all time) in Basketball-Reference.com's win shares, though Nowitzki is second and has a chance to catch him if he continues to play at a high level.

Because it requires play-by-play data, ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) only dates back to the 2000-01 season, but since then, Duncan is No. 1 in wins above replacement (WAR) generated based on RPM among players who entered the league in the 1990s.


Comparing WAR
Player WAR
Tim Duncan 214
Dirk Nowitzki 201
Kevin Garnett 197
Kobe Bryant 159
Jason Kidd 144


The consistent theme here is Duncan rating far ahead of Bryant in terms of regular-season value. The difference between the two stars is that Duncan has been more valuable at both ends of the court. Despite Bryant's string of 12 consecutive All-Defensive appearances, Duncan is the more valuable defensive player because big men are so much more important defensively.

That's reflected by their teams' success at the defensive end. During Bryant's career, the Los Angeles Lakers were below-average defensively nine times, including the 29th-rated defense during 2004-05. The San Antonio Spurs defending so poorly with Duncan is inconceivable; their worst defense of the Duncan era ranked 11th in the league.

Bryant has been the better offensive player over the course of their careers, but the difference isn't enough to make up the gap on the defensive end of the floor.





Playoff value


When we turn to the postseason, Duncan's edge on many of his 1990s peers in terms of career value only grows. Here's how they rank in terms of WARP in the playoffs.


Playoff WARP
Player WARP
Tim Duncan 51
Shaquille O'Neal 48
Kobe Bryant 34
Dirk Nowitzki 26
Jason Kidd 24
Kevin Garnett 21


O'Neal, who won four championships to Duncan's five, is close behind here. And Bryant, who also won five championships but played 31 fewer postseason games than Duncan, leapfrogs Kidd and Garnett to rank third on this list.

Playoff value is the biggest difference between Duncan and Garnett, Duncan's closest rival at power forward over the course of his career. While it wasn't entirely, or even primarily, Garnett's fault, Duncan played 108 more playoff games -- more than an entire regular season. That's above and beyond Garnett's total, adding to Duncan's value and his legacy.




Adding it up: championships added


Earlier this year, I introduced the championships added metric to summarize players' career value. Built on Basketball-Reference.com's win shares in order to evaluate players throughout NBA history (stats like WARP go back only through 1977-78 because they require full box-score stats to calculate), championships added considers regular-season and playoff performance based on how likely it is to result in a championship, along with giving players credit for their awards.

Duncan ranks sixth all time in championships added, and is far and away tops on the list among players who entered the league in the 1990s.


Championships added
Player RS PO Awards Total
Tim Duncan 1.4 1.3 1.9 2.72
Shaquille O'Neal 1.3 1.2 2.1 2.60
Kobe Bryant 1.1 1.0 2.0 2.30
Dirk Nowitzki 1.4 0.8 1.2 1.92
Kevin Garnett 1.3 0.4 1.6 1.67


Of the three components of championships added, Duncan ranks in the top 10 in each, something he shares in common with four of the five players ahead of him in the all-time rankings: Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and LeBron James. (The fifth player ahead of Duncan, Bill Russell, was 11th in regular-season championships added.)

While Bryant and O'Neal had slightly better careers in terms of awards (All-Star appearances, All-NBA First or Second Team selections and MVP voting), Duncan's advantages over them in both the regular season and the playoffs put him atop this group.

As he retires, Duncan should stand alone among players who entered the league in the 1990s. He was truly the best of his generation.

 

[BushidoBrown]

With Wade gone, should Heat trade Dragic and start over?

 

[Skooby]

With Wade gone, should Heat trade Dragic and start over?

Wade's exit a blessing for Heat if they follow their own history



The Miami Heat didn't want the Dwyane Wade era to end. Not like this.

Not after team president Pat Riley two years ago gave his famous "guts" speech heading into the 2014 free-agency period and promptly watched LeBron James take his talents back to Cleveland. A few weeks ago, Riley made another bold call in free agency, naming Hassan Whiteside -- not Wade -- the Heat's "No. 1 priority" to a room full of reporters. After negotiations quickly went south, Wade packed his bags and went north to Chicago.

And while that wasn't the ending the Heat wanted, from their perspective, the Wade departure likely was for the best.


The divide seems to stem from a fundamental disagreement over how Wade should be compensated. He reportedly turned down a two-year, $40 million contract from the Heat and accepted a two-year, $47.5 million deal from Chicago. Should the Heat pay for past performance and perceived debts of gratitude? Or should it purely be based on cold future projections removed from emotions?

One important byproduct of a 13-year tenure is a long history of internal medical information. A 34-year-old Wade probably wasn't going to age gracefully enough in today's NBA to justify a three-year deal, or a contract exceeding $20 million annually.

Advanced projections agree with the Heat's call. According to NBA Insider Kevin Pelton's SCHOENE projection system, the most similar player to Wade is none other than Kobe Bryant, whose body broke down at age 34, starting with a torn Achilles at the end of the 2012-13 season. Pelton's projections saw Wade's value dropping by 40 percent next season, from 6.0 WARP to 3.7 WARP, and then falling again to 3.0 WARP in 2017-18. Even with all the money being thrown around this summer, Wade's asking price didn't fit with his forecasted production.

The Heat aren't going to follow in the Los Angeles Lakers' footsteps and back up the truck for a Wade farewell tour. All that was standing between Wade and the contract Chicago offered was moving Josh McRoberts' contract that accounted for just $5.8 million on the books this summer. Keep in mind, Jose Calderon and his $7.7 million was just dumped onto the Lakers for the measly price of packaging a future second-round pick.

With Chris Bosh's outlook still unclear, a full reset was probably the smart, levelheaded move, even if Riley and the Heat didn't plan on it falling apart so unceremoniously.








Whiteside better without Wade?


If you watched the Heat closely last season, you would expect Wade's departure to devastate Whiteside, their new franchise player. Wade knew how to get Whiteside the ball; according to the NBA StatsCube database, Wade assisted on 92 Whiteside baskets last season, while starting point guard Goran Dragic assisted Whiteside only 65 times. Zeroing in further, Wade successfully tossed 29 alley-oop lobs to Whiteside -- twice as many as Dragic did.

So Whiteside and the Heat will suffer without Wade, right? Well, it's not that simple.

Pick-and-roll chemistry is just one slice of the Heat's overall play. Interestingly, Whiteside posted superior numbers without Wade. Per StatsCube, Whiteside registered a 30.3 PER without Wade on the floor. When Wade was out there? Whiteside's PER fell to "just" 23.9. Even without Wade's assistance, Whiteside still shot 60.6 percent from the floor last season, aided by floor-spacing rookie Josh Richardson, who shot 53-of-115 (46.1 percent) from deep last season. With fewer bodies packing the paint, Whiteside enjoyed more space to work in.

Another important big-picture look: The Heat outscored opponents by 5.1 points per 100 possessions last season when Whiteside played and Wade did not. With both players on the floor, the Heat outscored opponents by just 1.8 points per 100 possessions. That decline can be explained by Miami's souring on defense. That end of the floor improved without Wade, from 103.8 points allowed per 100 possessions to 98.0 points, which would have been good for second-best in the NBA over the course of the regular season.

Much of that improvement can be explained by many Richardson-Whiteside lineups appearing against second units. What's more, Wade and Whiteside produced healthier offense toward the end of the season, but the trend is clear: Whiteside doesn't necessarily need Wade to excel.







Should the Heat tank?


Despite those positive numbers for Whiteside, there's reason to believe he might have already peaked last season. Second-round picks who get their big payday tend to see their performance fall off immediately after the boatload of cash comes in. Considering that and the sobering fact that the Heat had little choice but to fill the rest of the roster with borderline NBA players, Miami will need to maximize its 2017 first-round draft pick, which it owns outright.

The Heat know this route well. All they have to do is look at the 2002-03 season after they lost Alonzo Mourning to a serious kidney condition that sidelined him for the entire season. Led by a 22-year-old Caron Butler, that team went 25-57 under Riley. The Heat's awful season earned them the fifth pick in the 2003 draft. Who did they select? A prospect out of Marquette University named Dwyane Wade.

The Heat could try to postpone the rebuilding movement to 2017-18, but they would lose their pick to Phoenix if it falls out of the top seven, thanks to the trade that brought in Dragic. But with Bosh's future in jeopardy and desperate options in free agency, Miami would be wise to rebuild with an eye on getting a high draft pick in 2017.

And it starts with moving Dragic.








Trade options for Dragic


Dragic didn't sign long-term with the Heat to take part in a rebuild. But he could have a hand in it if he knocks on Riley's door and asks for a trade. Riley might not even need Dragic to initiate that conversation.

The Heat desperately need assets to restock their cabinet. Currently, the team has reloaded with a bunch of one-year deals, looking to leverage its championship culture and player development staff that turned Whiteside, Richardson and Tyler Johnson into legitimate NBA contributors. That the Heat matched Johnson's poison-pill contract offer from the Brooklyn Nets indicates they plan on vying for a playoff spot with an up-tempo team built on athletes.

But it will be a tall task. As it stands now, the Heat are the only East team other than the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic without a player who ranked top-50 overall in real plus-minus in 2015-16. The Heat scraped the bargain bin by signing Wayne Ellington, James Johnson, Derrick Williams and Willie Reed, and trading for Luke Babbitt. Of that group, only Reed ranked among the top 50 at his position, according to RPM. (Reed finished 47th at the power forward slot.)

The upside is that the team meshes together with a vision built around Dragic and Whiteside. But it could go poorly, and teams could be in the market for a point guard like Dragic, who has three years left on his contract with a player option for 2019-20.

One team to watch: the Rockets, who may be interested in a Dragic reunion to help beef up their squad. The Heat could do a sign-and-trade involving 25-year-old Donatas Motiejunas, who is a restricted free agent. Or if the Heat don't want to take back Motiejunas' contract, they could just opt for a package of Patrick Beverley, Corey Brewer and picks.

Who else would be in the market for Dragic's services? Keep an eye on the Atlanta Hawks and New Orleans Pelicans, two teams that could use more solid options at point guard. According to league sources, the Heat have not made Dragic available yet, but that might change soon.

When Wade bolted for Chicago, the Heat took a huge hit in the public relations department. But it may have been a blessing in disguise. It hurts now, but it quickens the post-Wade era, which would have been painful under any circumstance. Rather than try to reload a playoff team every season like Mark Cuban's Mavericks, Miami should follow the Boston Celtics' blueprint and rebuild from scratch. The Heat organization only has to rewind to the beginning of the Wade era in 2003 to see how it should proceed.

 

[THASTUNNA]

Top 50 prospects: Astros' Bregman leaps to midseason No. 1

 

[Skooby]

Top 50 prospects: Astros' Bregman leaps to midseason No. 1

Top 50 prospects: Astros' Bregman leaps to No. 1

In ranking these players, I tend to weigh upside or ceiling more heavily than proximity to the majors. The list includes a mixture of players as high as Double-A or Triple-A as well as a few who have signed in recent weeks but have yet to make their professional debuts.

Players who already have passed the cutoff for Rookie of the Year eligibility or are currently on a major league roster (e.g., Josh Bell and Trea Turner) are not included here. Players who have not signed out of the draft are ineligible for the list, which is why Jason Groome, drafted 12th overall by the Red Sox, and Braxton Garrett, drafted seventh overall by the Marlins, are absent.

One important note: I start these lists from scratch every time I assemble them, so it's not as if I've "moved" players up or down from previous rankings. Players change, and the rankings should reflect that, but just because a player is lower now than he was in May or February doesn't mean he's somehow gotten worse. It only means I'm trying to make these rankings as accurate as I can.

Note: The "previous rank" for each player refers to Keith's May rankings; NR stands for "Not Rated" and means the player wasn't among the top 25 in May.

1. Alex Bregman, SS/3B
Houston Astros
Previous rank: 15
Current level: Triple-A

Bregman's power output this year -- 19 homers in 70 games between Double- and Triple-A -- has been way beyond anything I've ever forecasted for him, and even if you (or I) still want to argue that he's not going to have more than average power, how could you reasonably say he won't ever hit 20 homers in a full season when he has done this? He also has played adequate enough defense at shortstop that he'd be an upgrade over Carlos Correa, he has proven very difficult to strike out, he works the count, and he draws walks. He might be peak Dustin Pedroia with the bat, but on the other side of the bag. That's a superstar.

2. Lucas Giolito, RHP
Washington Nationals
Previous rank: 1
Current level: Double-A

One good start, one bad start and it was back to the minors for Giolito because the Nats' rotation is already loaded. He'll be up again the next time there's an injury or if the Nats decide to rest some starters in September. You could see the velocity and the plus curveball, but next time he's up, I'd like to see more two-seamers and changeups, as he was way too four-seamer heavy in his two outings. He's still a future ace, just waiting for an opportunity.

3. Andrew Benintendi, OF
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 6
Current level: Double-A

Benintendi destroyed high-A pitching, as you might expect a former SEC player of the year and Golden Spikes winner to do, then moved to Double-A, where he struggled for about 20 minutes. He's hitting .315/.379/.577 since June 1 and .354/.422/.658 since June 15, improving his walk and contact rates and hitting for more power the longer he stays at the level. His hands are super-quick and very strong, and he's fast enough to stay in center field for the near term. With Boston getting a .256/.323/.402 line from left field this year, there's more and more reason to hope we see Benintendi in Fenway before the summer is out.

4. J.P. Crawford, SS
Philadelphia Phillies
Previous rank: 2
Current level: Triple-A

Crawford started a bit slow this year, but the Phillies chose to promote him to Triple-A anyway after he'd played about a full season's worth of games for Reading over the last calendar year. After a very slow start at his new level, he has been on a tear for about a month, taking great at-bats again and making quality contact. He's a difference-maker on defense and has the raw speed to do so on the bases as well, although he hasn't really done so in pro ball and might never become that kind of player. The only real deficiency in his game is power, but he's going to be an All-Star between his defense and ability to get on base.

5. Yoan Moncada, 2B
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 12
Current level: Double-A

My word, Moncada is strong. He muscled a changeup out of the park in left field at the Futures Game on Sunday, and he seems incapable of making any type of contact other than "very hard." He runs extremely well for a guy with a football player's build, and in Double-A at least showed a much better approach at the plate than he had in 2015. I don't think he's a lock to stay at second long-term, even if he weren't blocked by Dustin Pedroia. Of all of the near-to-the-majors bats on this list, he'd be my pick for most likely to struggle right out of the gate. But he's an elite physical specimen who has shown himself increasingly adept at hitting this year.

6. Julio Urias, LHP
Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous rank: 3
Current level: Triple-A

Urias is going to graduate from this list with another 13 2/3 major league innings, so this is probably his last appearance on any of my prospect rankings. His major league stints haven't lit the world on fire, but that's neither surprising nor anything to worry about for the long term. He still has the velocity, has already shown the plus changeup really plays that way (including a whiff rate over 20 percent), and he showed he can throw his breaking stuff for strikes already. He's going to have to work on fastball command and just generally on the art of setting up hitters, but I'm as high on his prospects as I was before he ever sniffed the majors.

7. Rafael Devers, 3B
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 5
Current level: High-A

It's good to be the Red Sox right now, with a good big league club powered by young stars and four of the best prospects in all of baseball in their farm system. Devers will play this entire year at age 19 and already is in high-A, starting the year at the same level as Benintendi and Moncada, both of whom are two years Devers' senior. After a miserable April, Devers has hit .310/.359/.454 since May 1, striking out in just 16 percent of his plate appearances, and while he's not showing much power, that's about the last thing anyone is concerned about with his bat.

8. Tyler Glasnow, RHP
Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous rank: 4
Current level: Triple-A

Glasnow struggled with command in his first start, but that was to be expected, as he hasn't even gotten to average control yet. It's still huge stuff in a good body (6-foot-8, 225), and his fastball has to look to hitters like it's coming straight down at them like the cavalry stampeding down a hill. His changeup also remains well behind his plus fastball/breaking-ball combination, which hasn't been an issue in Triple-A but could be one in the majors. He's still a future star, but I don't believe he's going to help the Pirates much this year, and those two things are not mutually exclusive.

9. Brendan Rodgers, SS
Colorado Rockies
Previous rank: 9
Current level: Class A

Rodgers has flown a bit under the radar with so many college hitters from last year's draft raking in high-A and Double-A and now even Triple-A, but he has had a great rookie season in hitter-friendly Asheville with the same solid defense at shortstop. He has a huge home/road split, which is typical for hitters in Asheville but still something to consider, especially since he has 13 homers in 68 games and never really projected as a 30-homer bat. That said, he has made contact everywhere, and I think that will be what defines him as a hitter in the long run.

10. Victor Robles, CF
Washington Nationals
Previous rank: 21
Current level: High-A

Robles has come on much faster than I expected, hitting .305/.405/.459 in low-A as a 19-year-old and earning a promotion to high-A that more than anything shows that the Nats believe he's advanced enough at the plate to handle the higher level. He's a four-tool guy already who makes enough hard contact that scouts feel good about him getting to above-average power as he fills out, and if you add power to his speed, on-base skills and plus defense in center, you have a future All-Star.

11. Alex Reyes, RHP
St. Louis Cardinals
Previous rank: 7
Current level: Triple-A

Reyes returned from his very silly suspension for marijuana use and didn't miss a beat, starting out in Triple-A at age 21 and showing a plus fastball and plus changeup with an average-ish curveball. I still don't love the delivery -- he lands hard on his front leg and his release point is a little early, which is why the curveball is just the third pitch -- or the present command, but that's huge upside given the two plus pitches and his relative inexperience.

12. Dansby Swanson, SS
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: 11
Current level: Double-A

The first overall pick in last year's draft destroyed high-A and moved up to Double-A after just 21 games in the Carolina League, but has been just OK at the higher level, striking out a bit more than you'd like for a player of his skill set -- something that was also a concern at Vanderbilt. He remains an above-average defender at shortstop and has a tantalizing speed/power combination for someone who's going to stay in the middle of the field, and it appears Atlanta has settled on him over Ozzie Albies (ranked at No. 15 below) as their shortstop of the future.

13. Amed Rosario, SS
New York Mets
Previous rank: 23
Current level: Double-A

Rosario returned to high-A to start the year, spent too long at that lower level and finally moved up three weeks ago to Double-A, where he's hitting .424/.462/.610 in 16 games. He has great bat speed that should lead to more power down the road, although right now he's more of a hard-contact hitter who seldom strikes out. He has the quickness and arm strength to stay at shortstop and could be the Mets' solution there at some point in 2017.

14. Anderson Espinoza, RHP
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 22
Current level: Class A

The Venezuelan right-hander's first full pro season has gone remarkably well given the fact that he's the youngest pitcher in the Sally League. He didn't allow a home run in his first 14 starts of the year (62 1/3 innings) and has shown adequate control, if not quite command. He'll be up to 99 mph but sits comfortably at 94-95 with both the changeup and curveball flashing plus, with the changeup being the better of the two pitches. There aren't many comparisons for Espinoza because so few pitchers have done what he has done with this kind of stuff at 18, but the fact that Pedro Martinez comps aren't laughable is a pretty good indicator of what Espinoza could be.

15. Ozhaino Albies, SS
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: 17
Current level: Double-A

As noted above, it looks like Albies will be the one to move to second base with Swanson staying at short, although Albies probably could have remained at his natural position if there wasn't direct competition there. Albies hit .400/.462/.550 in a month-plus in Double-A at age 19 before a quick promotion to Triple-A, where he struggled a bit but was the International League's youngest regular by more than a year. Albies has a short swing that creates a lot of contact without much power, and he's an above-average runner who should add value on the bases. Assuming he's an above-average to plus defender at second -- I see no reason he couldn't be -- he'll pair with Swanson to give Atlanta one of the majors' best double-play combos by this time next year.

 

[Skooby]

16. Orlando Arcia, SS
Milwaukee Brewers
Previous rank: 8
Current level: Triple-A

Arcia might be the biggest disappointment among major prospects this year, hitting just .270/.328/.407 in hitter-friendly Colorado Springs (.232/.275/.333 on the road) and, according to multiple scouts, playing like he's disinterested. Perhaps he believes he belongs in the majors, and coming out of 2015 I thought he did, but it's hard to justify his performance this year even though he has the tools to be much more. I'm not giving up on him, but it's fair to ask for better output given where he plays.

17. Kevin Newman, SS
Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous rank: 19
Current level: Double-A

Newman is now hitting .355/.411/.468 across high-A and Double-A and just had a 17-game hitting streak for Double-A Altoona snapped Sunday, with more walks than strikeouts at both levels this year. Even without any improvement in power, he's a solid big league regular as an average or better defender at short who makes a ton of hard contact, but he has the hand strength to hit for some power if he starts to use his lower half more. I've heard comps on him fromChris Gomez to Mark Loretta to Alan Trammell, but I think there's a good Yunel Escobar (26-plus career WAR and counting) floor here, with the chance for more if some power arrives.

18. Joey Gallo, 3B
Texas Rangers
Previous rank: 10
Current level: Triple-A

There will always be swing-and-miss to Gallo's game, but he keeps making gradual adjustments that bring his contact rate up -- his K rate is down to 29 percent in Triple-A this year after he posted a 39 percent rate at the level last year -- without reducing his power in any way. Of course, Gallo could lose power and still have grade-80 raw power, and if he hits only .230-.240 in the majors, he's still going to be an impact bat with 30-plus homers and a respectable OBP. He also has an 80 arm, but third base is blocked in Texas, and Gallo may be better suited to right field or first base anyway.

19. Austin Meadows, CF
Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A

Meadows missed the Futures Game because of a minor hamstring injury that has kept him out the past two weeks, but he had just started to come around after a 21-PA hitless streak right after he reached Triple-A. Meadows is a four-tool guy who can hit, has power and speed, and throws well enough to play right field, although I think center field might be a stretch, and there's no way he's playing that over Starling Marte or Gregory Polanco. Meadows' emergence this year should make it easier for the Pirates to entertain offers for Andrew McCutchen, who's going to be too expensive for them to retain going forward anyway.

20. Manuel Margot, CF
San Diego Padres
Previous rank: Honorable mention
Current level: Triple-A

Margot is more about polish and skills than raw tools, but he has enough of the latter to profile as at least a solid-average everyday player. He's a very instinctive defender in center who covers more ground than his above-average speed might imply because his reads are so good. He's very disciplined at the plate -- you might have seen the walk he worked off Ryne Stanek in the Futures Game, fouling off three fastballs at 99 mph in an 11-pitch plate appearance -- and has doubles power that should play better in Petco than his fringe-average raw. As soon as there's an opening for him in San Diego, he's ready to come up.

21. Lewis Brinson, CF
Texas Rangers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A

Brinson got off to a lousy start in Double-A this year, although he wasn't striking out like crazy as he did in low-A, then he missed three weeks with a shoulder injury. Apparently while he was out, he found some BABIP luck, as he has gone 11-for-26 since returning, with 2 triples and 3 homers. Brinson is an elite defensive center fielder who doesn't have to hit much to have value in the majors and who has All-Star potential if he hits enough to get to his plus-plus power. He'll play the rest of this year at age 22, and if he keeps his contact rate up, he'll be someone's top prospect this winter.

22. Braden Shipley, RHP
Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous rank: Honorable mention
Current level: Triple-A

Shipley has a swing-and-miss changeup and above-average curveball, but has found success this year in Triple-A by trying to miss fewer bats, generating ground balls instead -- which he has done well, posting a 46 percent ground-ball rate and another 6 percent going for popups. Shipley's four-seamer can reach 95 but sits more average, and the key for him has been working down in the zone more effectively. He's a great athlete and former position player with a very clean delivery, and while I don't think there's huge upside here, he has a high floor and should be able to pitch in the majors this summer.

23. Aaron Judge, OF
New York Yankees
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A

If Judge hits at all, he'll be a monster, and he has made some progress in his plate coverage this year in Triple-A. Judge, 6-foot-7 and 275 pounds, has a lot of strike zone to cover, and had a hard time handling pitches in on his hands without leaving a gap in his coverage on the outside corner. He has made some adjustments in Triple-A and brought his strikeout rate down to 23 percent on the season and just 19.6 percent since June 1, enough signs of progress that he could come up to the majors if and when the Yankees deal Carlos Beltran.

24. Jose Berrios, RHP
Minnesota Twins
Previous rank: In majors
Current level: Triple-A

The Twins gave up on Berrios fast this year, after four rough outings in which he struggled to throw strikes, which is about the last thing I expected from him. He's normally a command and control guy, with a flat but hard fastball and above-average pitches in the curveball and changeup. I'm not sure what the plan is for Berrios, but I'd give him Tommy Milone's rotation spot right now and let him work on fastball command against major league hitters, because he has little to nothing left to learn in Triple-A.

25. Franklin Barreto, SS
Oakland Athletics
Previous rank: Honorable mention
Current level: Double-A

Oakland's hopes for a good return on the Josh Donaldson trade now fall squarely on Barreto's shoulders, perhaps a bit much to ask of the Texas League's second-youngest regular. After a slow start, Barreto's bat has come around -- if you split his season so far into halves, he's hitting .299/.377/.465 since that midpoint – and he's a plus defender at short with good instincts and more than enough arm. He's not a quick-to-the-majors guy but should be ready for a cup of coffee in Oakland by the end of 2017.

26. Gleyber Torres, SS
Chicago Cubs
Previous rank: 15
Current level: High-A

Torres has put on some weight, and his body isn't as agile as it was a year ago, but he's hitting .270/.348/.423 as one of only three teenage regulars in the Carolina League, and doing so even though his home park is death on power. (Eight of his nine homers have come on the road.) Torres might not be a lock to stay at short any more, unless he gets his conditioning back under control, but he continues to show a decent eye at the plate and enough ability to make hard contact that he'll profile well at another position. I'd still like to see more consistency in his game at the plate, but that might be a little unfair to a guy who's the same age as most college freshmen.

27. Ian Happ, 2B
Chicago Cubs
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A

Happ is yet another hitter from the 2015 draft class who has gotten off to a huge start in pro ball. He's hitting .308/.406/.487 on the year between High-A and Double-A, and hitting better after the promotion, in part because he got away from pitcher-friendly Myrtle Beach. The Cubs continue to play Happ a little in the outfield to keep some flexibility, but he's primarily a second baseman now and will be at least average there. Given his patience and solid-average power, that's at worst an everyday player, with a good chance for more, given his feel to hit.

28. Willy Adames, SS
Tampa Bay Rays
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A

Adames came to the Rays in the David Price trade two years ago and has improved each year in their system. He's hitting .266/.365/.439 in Double-A at age 20 and still holding his own at shortstop. Because he isn't built like a typical shortstop and doesn't have that kind of lateral agility, I don't know if he stays there long-term, but his hands are good and his arm is more than sufficient. It's becoming increasingly clear, however, that his OBP/power combination will be good enough for any position.

29. Eloy Jimenez, OF
Chicago Cubs
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Class A

Signed in the same July 2 class as Torres, Eloy has been the Cubs' biggest breakout prospect this year, showing that the system, which I ranked fourth coming into 2016, is far from depleted even after last year's wave of promotions. Eloy, still just 19 years old, is smashing the Midwest League, posting a .332/.372/.527 line, and he showed off his great range in right field and huge raw power in Sunday's Futures Game. He's tied for second in the league in homers and is fourth in batting average and slugging, so while he might see his power dip next year in Myrtle Beach, he has the potential to be the Cubs' next great middle-of-the-order bat.

30. Trent Clark, OF
Milwaukee Brewers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Class A

The Brewers' first-round pick from 2015 has missed time twice now with hamstring injuries. He has just 118 plate appearances this year and a .227/.359/.412 when he has played, but the patience is there and no one (myself included) seems to have any doubts about his ability to hit for average. Clark has played center field when he has been active this year but is much more likely to end up in a corner, where his potential with the bat -- high average/OBP, 15-20 homers -- would still make him an above-average regular.

 

[Skooby]

31. David Dahl, OF
Colorado Rockies
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A

Dahl missed about half of 2015 after injuring his spleen in an on-field collision, the second time in three full years he'd spent much of the season on the disabled list, but his return to health this year has marked a real breakout for him. He has posted career highs already in walks and homers and earned a promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque, a hitter's paradise, just before the All-Star break. He's already 13-for-26 with two doubles since the move up, and because he has to go on the 40-man roster after the season anyway, he should be in line for a September call-up to set him for an everyday job next year.

32. Kyle Tucker, OF
Houston Astros
Previous rank: Honorable mention
Current level: Class A

Tucker's power hasn't been there in his first full pro season, but everything else has been, including a high contact rate and a surprising 28 steals in 34 attempts. Tucker's not that fast, but there's also future power to come as he fills out physically, which will probably also necessitate a move to right field. He has even raked against left-handed pitching, with just 13 K's in 75 at-bats. That's a great sign, albeit in a small sample, for a left-handed hitter in his first year out of high school.

33. Corey Ray, OF
Milwaukee Brewers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: High-A

The Brewers sent Ray, the fifth overall pick in last month's Rule 4 draft, right to High-A Brevard County, a very aggressive move for the draft's top prospect but someone who had minor concerns about his game, including his propensity to swing and miss. He's a power/speed guy with a good swing and feel to hit. The primary questions facing him are about his defense, which never measured up to his physical tools in center or even in limited reps in left for the University of Louisville.

34. Clint Frazier, OF
Cleveland Indians
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A

"Azazello" started to come on in the second half of 2015 and has carried it over into this year, continuing to cut his strikeouts and show more power, although he's hitting the ball on the ground too often for someone with his otherworldly bat speed. He has played in all three outfield spots and will probably end up in left field, so the power needs to be there for him to reach his ceiling as an above-average regular.

35. Mickey Moniak, OF
Philadelphia Phillies
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Rookie

The 2016 draft's first overall pick, Moniak is considered a high-floor high school bat because of his excellent feel for contact and the likelihood that he stays in center field. He's already out in the Gulf Coast League and could break camp with full-season Lakewood next year if he's as polished as scouts believe. His no-stride setup and narrow frame might limit his ceiling because he's unlikely to hit for average power.

36. Gary Sanchez, C
New York Yankees
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A

From nearly playing himself off the prospect map with questions about his work ethic and his glove behind the plate, Sanchez has re-established his value. He has become sort of adequate behind the plate and hit for increasing power the last two years, with 18 homers in 93 games last year and nine in 56 games this year, so a projection of 25-plus homers in the majors is reasonable. Behind the plate, Sanchez has a cannon and likes to show it off, nailing 39 percent of runners since the start of 2015, so between that and the power, it won't take much to make him an average regular.

37. Alex Verdugo, OF
Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A

A former two-way player from Tucson, Verdugo continues to astound at the plate, starting his second full pro season out of high school in Double-A and hitting .293/.354/.439 with just a 13.5 percent strikeout rate as the Texas League's youngest regular. Verdugo still plays more in center than in right, but I think he ends up at right, where he has plenty of arm and should have above-average range. He's already shown he can hit for average and contact, but there's more power on the way as well, with All-Star upside and the promise of major league value as early as the end of 2017.

38. Kolby Allard, LHP
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Rookie

Allard is fully recovered from the back injury that has limited him since he signed last July, and he is back to throwing in the low 90s, topping at 96 mph, with a plus curveball and above-average control. He's dominating the short-season Appy League after three starts in Low-A Rome, two bad, one good. The key for Allard, aside from health, will be staying on top of the ball to generate more ground balls, currently at 45.6 percent on the season as a whole. If he's done with his back troubles, there's No. 2 starter upside.

39. Robert Stephenson, RHP
Cincinnati Reds
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A

The stuff is good, the command is not. Stephenson will show three plus pitches if you get him on the right day, including the new-ish changeup that has him once again dominating left-handed hitters, so it's a starter package but without enough strikes. Harnessing that stuff is the Reds' main developmental challenge with their top prospects, although if he can't do it as a starter he'd be a potentially devastating reliever.

40. Jorge Alfaro, C
Philadelphia Phillies
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A

Alfaro is back from the ankle injury that wiped out three-quarters of his 2015 season, now hitting .295/.335/.498 for Double-A Reading while throwing out 46 percent of would-be base stealers. He doesn't walk enough, although he has drawn nine walks already in July because he has been possessed by an incubus. While his receiving isn't great, he's down to just three passed balls in 60 games after having 56 in 214 games from 2013-15. I think he stays behind the plate and makes enough contact for a .300ish OBP and 20-plus homers.

41. Chance Sisco, C
Baltimore Orioles
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A

Sisco is hitting .307/.397/.398 as a 21-year-old in Double-A. A solid-average receiver now in just his fourth year at the position, he showed that there's some latent power in that bat with his opposite-field home run in Sunday's Futures Game. He rarely strikes out, and I think he still has more growth to come behind the plate, with his average arm his only real deficiency. With Matt Wieters likely to leave in free agency, Sisco is the Orioles' catcher of the future, probably starting in the middle of 2017.

42. Raul Mondesi, SS
Kansas City Royals
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A

I don't get why Mondesi is already in Triple-A. He came back from his PED suspension, played 29 games in Double-A, did fine (.259/.331/.448), and moved up to Omaha even though he won't turn 21 until the end of this month. He's still far more potential than production because he has always been young for where he has played, with outstanding range at short, plus speed, and great instincts at the position. The bat is still well behind his glove, however, and he needs more reps before he'll be ready to help the major league club. What's the rush?

43. Blake Rutherford, OF
New York Yankees
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Rookie

The 18th overall pick in last month's Rule 4 draft, Rutherford started his pro career 0-for-10, which I'm sure had a few people in the Bronx and Tampa quietly wringing their hands, but he has had a few hits since then, and all seems right with the world. He's already 19, so there is some more pressure for him to succeed this year so he can break with a full-season club in April, but he's an advanced enough hitter with above-average present power and should be able to do so, given how well he performed against good competition last summer.

44. Dom Smith, 1B
New York Mets
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A

Smith showed off some of his raw power with a little run in late June that helped him set a new career high in homers, but overall his line of .277/.340/.436 is less than I expect for his Double-A debut. He's still an outstanding defender at first and has no trouble making contact, but he needs to get himself into advantageous counts more frequently to get to that power, whether it's for doubles or homers. On the other hand, he's the youngest regular in the Eastern League, younger than 2016 first-rounder Corey Ray and just two weeks older than Nick Senzel, and he's already more than holding his own in Double-A, so there's still cause for optimism.

 

[Skooby]

45. Michael Kopech, RHP
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: NR
Current level: High-A

Well, he might not be the brightest bulb in the chandelier, having missed half of last year because of a PED suspension and half of this year after getting into a fight with a teammate, but he's regularly hitting 100 mph with his fastball as a starter now and topped out at 103 already since his return. He complements that with a breaking ball that will flash plus but isn't consistent yet. It's a frighteningly electric arm, because no one who has thrown this hard has lasted as a starter, but Kopech is a good athlete in top-flight condition, so if anyone can hold it together in the rotation it might be him.

46. Luis Ortiz, RHP
Texas Rangers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A

Ortiz has been very good when healthy, and since the Rangers' High-A affiliate plays in a zero-gravity, high-offense environment, they chose to bump Ortiz up to Double-A after just six starts in High Desert. Ortiz won't turn 21 until September and shows an above-average fastball, plus changeup, and above-average control already. He's going to have to work to keep his weight at a manageable level, and he needs to continue to refine the breaking ball so he has a real out pitch for right-handed batters. He's still six months younger than 2016 first-rounder A.J. Puk and has only 135 career innings in pro ball, so any success he has this year in Double-A is a positive.

47. Sean Newcomb, LHP
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A

Like Stephenson, Newcomb has three above-average pitches but just can't throw enough strikes to be as effective as the stuff says he should be. Newcomb's arm action is so easy that it's hard to see how to improve it; I don't think he consistently gets to the same release point, but it's hard to say how he can do that when nothing's actually wrong with the delivery. His walk rates have been consistent since he signed, and he bottomed out in his last outing, when he walked four guys in the first inning and had to be removed from the game. He's still here because a lefty throwing up to 96-97 mph with this kind of repertoire and history of health is a rare beast.

48. Cody Bellinger, 1B
Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Double-A

Bellinger, who turned 21 on Wednesday, is a plus-plus defender at first who roped 30 homers in the Cal League last year but has traded in some power for more contact in his first year at Double-A. Still just 20 years old, he has cut his strikeout rate to 22 percent from 28, but I think I'd take a few more whiffs for more power, because he's unlikely to ever be a big hitter for average. He's among the league's youngest regulars -- but a few months older than teammate Alex Verdugo -- and has a carrying tool in the defense, giving him a high floor and the potential to be an impact bat in the middle-third of a lineup if that power returns.

49. Yohander Mendez, LHP
Texas Rangers
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A

Another Venezuelan lefty to follow in Martin Perez's footsteps, Mendez had never thrown more than 66 innings in a season before this year. He's already at 72 innings and counting, pitching in Double-A at age 21. He has come on this year with a fastball up to 93 mph, a plus change, and a solid-average breaking ball, with no appreciable platoon split either. He's a potential mid-rotation starter, if not better, once he shows he can handle a full season's workload.

50. Jorge Mateo, SS
New York Yankees
Previous rank: 25
Current level: High-A

Mateo has been suspended two weeks for an undisclosed team-policy violation, but that aside, it's time for him to start performing up to the level of his tools. Mateo's a plus runner, at least a 70 and frequently showing 80 speed, which raises the question of why he's not always showing it. He has a compact swing that should lead to more contact, but he strikes out too often and the contact he makes isn't hard. He could stay at short, but the Yankees have had him play a little second base with the growth in Didi Gregorius' game this year. If the rumor that Mateo wanted a promotion to Double-A is true, that's great, but he needs to understand that hitting .266/.323/.396 won't get him there. Harder contact and all-the-time effort will.

Honorable mention

Kohl Stewart, RHP, Twins
Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Rockies
A.J. Puk, LHP, A's
Brent Honeywell, RHP, Rays
Nick Senzel, 3B, Reds
Tyler Jay, LHP, Twins
Hunter Harvey, RHP, Orioles

 

[Ashyneezz]

Ranking best rookies (and worst) from summer league

 

[Skooby]

Ranking best rookies (and worst) from summer league

Ranking best rookies (and worst) from summer league


Who were the best NBA rookies at the Las Vegas Summer League? Which young veterans performed best? And who was most disappointing?

Don't let anybody tell you there's no parity in the NBA ... summer league. The action in Las Vegas concludes Monday, when the last-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves will try to complete their unlikely run through the summer league tournament by beating the Chicago Bulls to win the championship.

However, summer league is really less about wins and losses than the development of the rookies and young players in action.

Let's take a look at the best (and some of the worst) on display over the past 10 days.





Best rookies


1. Kris Dunn | Minnesota Timberwolves

Sadly, Dunn hasn't been a part of Minnesota's Cinderella tournament run because of a concussion he suffered during his second game. Before then, however, Dunn was far and away the most productive rookie in Vegas. He had 48 points in his two appearances and shot 18-of-29 (62.1 percent) on 2-point attempts, living in the paint.

Perhaps most intriguingly, Dunn showed the ability to coexist with another point guard (Tyus Jones; more on him later), suggesting the Timberwolves should consider playing him with Ricky Rubio at times.

2. Tyler Ulis | Phoenix Suns

While Phoenix drafted a pair of players in the lottery (Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss), there's no doubt second-round pick Ulis was their most impressive player over the past week and a half.

Ulis posted an impressive 3.45 assist-to-turnover ratio, setting up teammates while taking care of the ball. While he had a more difficult time finishing over bigger defenders (Ulis shot 43.5 percent on 2-point attempts), he compensated for his small stature on defense with nearly three steals per game.

3. Jamal Murray | Denver Nuggets

Despite struggling to find the range from downtown (8-of-29, 27.6 percent), Murray looked a lot more like the current version of Portland Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum than McCollum himself in his first summer league -- and that was after four years in college to Murray's one.

Murray isn't much of a playmaker out of the pick-and-roll -- he averaged just 2.4 assists per game -- but he's great at manipulating the defense to set up scoring opportunities. He made an even 50 percent of his 2-point attempts, many of them off the dribble.

Honorable mention: Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics; Juancho Hernangomez, Denver Nuggets; Patrick McCaw, Golden State Warriors; Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers; Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Lakers





Most tantalizing rookie


Ben Simmons | Philadelphia 76ers

Though he earned a spot on the All-NBA Summer League First Team, I'm not sure Simmons was actually one of the five best rookies on the court. He had more turnovers (21) than field goals (18) in his three games in Las Vegas (Simmons also played two games in the Utah Jazz summer league, which don't count here) and shot 41 percent from the field.

Like Emmanuel Mudiay last year, Simmons showed more promise than production, which is OK for a 19-year-old rookie.





Most disappointing rookie


Dragan Bender | Phoenix Suns

Spending much of his time on the perimeter -- partly because he started at small forward before Chriss was sidelined by illness -- Bender took two-thirds of his shots from 3-point range and made them at just a 26.5 percent clip. Though he showed promise as a passer, Bender had just five assists against 19 turnovers, and he predictably got pushed around on the glass.

Bender was the youngest player in Las Vegas -- he's more than two years away from being able to enter a casino -- so there's no reason for panic about his play, but he struggled more than I expected.





Best veterans


1. Tyus Jones | Minnesota Timberwolves

After Dunn was sidelined, Jones reminded everyone that the Timberwolves have three quality point guards on their roster. While his size is still an issue against NBA competition, Jones' skills shined through in Las Vegas.

He's capable of beating defenses as both as scorer and a playmaker depending on what they give him. Perhaps most impressive was Jones' ability to get to the free throw line -- he has shot 47 free throws in seven games. His production translated into results, with Minnesota pulling off four upsets in a row to reach the final.

2. Devin Booker | Phoenix Suns

Booker played just two games in Las Vegas, but that's all he needed to make everyone wonder why he was playing after earning All-Rookie First Team honors last season. None of the other four players on the All-Rookie First Team played summer league, though Nikola Jokic (national team) and Jahlil Okafor (knee surgery) didn't have the option.

Serving as a go-to guy in last year's second half has made Booker more polished and confident off the dribble, and he handed out 13 assists in addition to scoring 52 points in two games. Alas, Booker's infamously low steal rate carried over too -- he didn't have one in 67 minutes of action.

3. Norman Powell | Toronto Raptors

Like Booker, Powell could easily have begged out of summer league after starting games in last year's playoffs. Instead, he relished the opportunity to play a larger role than he did in Toronto.

That didn't always work -- Powell shot just 40.5 percent on 2-point attempts and had more turnovers (13) than assists (12). But he also made 12 3-pointers in five games at a 46.2 percent clip, and his fine defensive work gives him the nod over D'Angelo Russell (and his porous defense) for this spot.

Honorable mention: Trey Lyles, Utah Jazz; Jordan McRae, Cleveland Cavaliers; Bobby Portis, Chicago Bulls; Terry Rozier, Boston Celtics; D'Angelo Russell, L.A. Lakers




More summer league standouts




Best free agent: Christian Wood | Philadelphia 76ers

Technically, Wood is no longer a free agent, having parlayed his impressive run in both Salt Lake City and Las Vegas into a two-year deal with the Charlotte Hornets.

Between the two leagues, Wood made 69.4 percent of his 2-point attempts, six 3s and got to the free throw line 37 times in six games. Wood is still a ways from harnessing that potential into NBA production, but he's much closer now than a year ago.

Honorable mention: Bryn Forbes, San Antonio Spurs (signed with San Antonio); Jonathan Gibson, Dallas Mavericks (signed with Dallas); Jameel Warney, Dallas Mavericks; Troy Williams, Phoenix Suns


Most disappointing veteran: Nik Stauskas | Philadelphia 76ers

While being asked to play summer league after your second season no longer carries the same stigma -- by my count, one-third of the first-round picks from 2014 played -- it's a bad sign when you don't stand out.

Stauskas, the highest-drafted player among that group (eighth overall) had 22 points on 7-of-20 shooting in his two-game cameo and generally failed to distinguish himself from the players trying to make teams.



Best shooter: Devin Booker

In the two games he played, Booker casually made six of his 10 3-point attempts. Ho hum. Gibson, who made a Vegas-high 17 3s at a 46 percent clip, was impressive in a larger sample.



Best rebounder: Alan Williams | Phoenix Suns

A year ago, Williams was my pick for best rookie in summer league. He passed on training-camp opportunities to play in China before joining the Suns for the stretch run. While not quite as impressive offensively this time around, Williams beasted on the glass, pulling down 23.1 percent of all available rebounds according to RealGM.com -- including an incredible 17.4 percent on the offensive glass.

Best playmaker: Ben Simmons

Led by Ulis, a handful of other players assisted teammates more frequently than Simmons. In terms of quality, however, nobody's dishes were better. Simmons dazzled with highlight passes to set up layups and open 3-point attempts, racking up few assists of the kind players get simply by running the offense or having the ball in their hands.

Best shot-blocker: Richaun Holmes | Philadelphia 76ers

Holmes' best rim protection actually came in Salt Lake City, where I believe he blocked a few of my tweets because he was just rejecting everything in sight. He came down to earth a bit in Vegas, but still averaged 2.5 blocks per game.

Best dunker: Troy Williams | Phoenix Suns

At one point after a thunderous putback, I told a colleague that Williams' nickname was "Helicopter." This does not appear to be the case, but maybe we should make it so. Williams spent much of his time in Vegas above the rim, at least when he wasn't hoping to prove to possible NBA suitors that he's also capable beyond the arc. (Williams shot 26.3 percent on 3-point attempts, but 74.1 percent on 2s, mostly dunks.)

Best hair: Atlanta Hawks

In the first round, the Hawks drafted DeAndre Bembry, whose Afro would not have been out of place in the NBA in the 1970s. In the second round, they added French guard Isaia Cordinier, who sports an impressive mop of hair in his own right. While the jury is still out on the production of Atlanta's rookies, their hair is already a steal.

 

[Anerdyblackguy]

Um at @Skooby would you please help me with this article

Big East stability: Does Chris Mullin really want to be here?

I would greatly appreciate it.

 

[Skooby]

Um at @Skooby would you please help me with this article

Big East stability: Does Chris Mullin really want to be here?

I would greatly appreciate it.

Is college coaching really something Chris Mullin wants to do?


Over the next two weeks, Insider is assessing the stability of the coaching situation for each team in the top 10 leagues. Next up: the Big East.

The league doesn't have any new coaches, but a couple of guys who enter their second season sit atop the list of those with instability. Where does the coach for the defending national champion Villanova Wildcats figure into the equation? Well, there are two coaches with more stability.

These rankings go in descending order from least to most stable. Keep in mind that stability is not solely determined by whether a program will want to part ways with its head coach if there are perceived failings; often, success will make it difficult, if not impossible, for a program to keep a coach from leaving for a seemingly better job.

Here is the breakdown of each Big East coaching situation.

Chris Mullin, St. John's Red Storm
Second season, 8-24
He was hired a little more than a year ago to replace Steve Lavin and lead the program back to the glory days. In his defense, he didn't inherit much and it was a throwaway year. But he also looked disinterested much of the season on the sideline. The Johnnies went 8-24 and will bring in some talent next season, but it will be interesting to see if St. John's can be better than the Lavin regime -- which produced two NCAA tournament appearances in five seasons. It will also be interesting to see if the 52-year-old Hall of Famer is in this for the long haul.

Dave Leitao, DePaul Blue Demons
Second season, 9-22
Year 1 of his second stint at DePaul wasn't pretty. The 56-year-old signed a five-year deal through 2020 when he was hired by AD Jean Lenti Ponsetto, and he should be fine for the next couple of years. But let's face it: DePaul is a tough, tough gig. The trio of Pat Kennedy, Jerry Wainright and Oliver Purnell went a combined 180-270 and made just one NCAA appearance (Kennedy, in 2000). Leitao was 58-34 and went to the postseason all three times in his first go-around, but DePaul was in Conference USA then.

Steve Wojciechowski, Marquette Golden Eagles
Third season, 33-32
He didn't inherit much from Buzz Williams, and he struggled in his rookie campaign. This past season was an improvement with 20 wins, but there was no postseason appearance. Now Wojo will have some pressure to get to the NCAA tournament over the next two years, and he'll have to do it without Henry Ellenson, who left for the NBA after just one season. Wojo did get a two-year extension in 2015 that runs through 2022, but he'll need to get to the tournament in the next couple of years or else he'll feel the heat.

Kevin Willard, Seton Hall Pirates
Seventh season, 107-90
Willard was on the hot seat entering the season, but it's cooled off a bit after he took the Pirates to the NCAA tournament this past season. Willard has two years remaining on his current contact and if he can take next year's team to the tournament, it's difficult to imagine him not getting an extension from athletic director Pat Lyons, who has stuck with him. Willard lost Isaiah Whitehead from last season's team, but he returns his other four starters and has a team more than capable of getting back.

John Thompson III, Georgetown Hoyas
13th Season, 264-133
Frankly, he'd be lower on this list if his last name weren't Thompson. The positive is that JT3 has taken the Hoyas to the NCAA tournament in eight of his 12 seasons at the helm. However, there's a negative: Georgetown hasn't gotten past the first weekend since it went to the Final Four back in 2007. It's still unclear how long Thompson's current deal goes through, but he made nearly $3 million a year ago. As long as his father is Big John Thompson, it's difficult to imagine the younger Thompson is any legitimate trouble.

Chris Holtmann, Butler Bulldogs
Third season, 45-22
Holtmann has done a tremendous job, especially given the circumstances. Remember, this is a guy who took over on an interim basis just before the start of the 2014 campaign after Brandon Miller stepped away because of personal reasons. Miller had the interim tag removed a couple months into the start of the 2014-15 season, and has taken the Bulldogs to the NCAA tournament in both of his two seasons. Holtmann spurned an opportunity to go to Georgia Tech this past offseason, but he could still be a candidate for other jobs going forward, especially if he's able to keep the program nationally relevant. He just inked a six-year deal this past April that runs through 2022.

Chris Mack, Xavier Musketeers
Eighth season, 162-77
The 46-year-old is coming off a 28-6 campaign, has taken the Musketeers to a trio of Sweet 16s in his seven seasons and has a group back that could spent most of next season in the top 10 and battling for the Big East title again. Mack has turned down multiple jobs, and would only leave Xavier for an elite-level gig -- and those don't open all that often and when they do, they aren't exactly easy to land. Mack received a one-year extension on his deal this past offseason that runs through 2022.

Jay Wright, Villanova Wildcats
16th season, 354-157
It wasn't all that long ago that Wright was being criticized for not getting past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament since the Final Four appearance in 2009, but this past April he got the ultimate vote of confidence when the Wildcats beat North Carolina to win the national title. Wright has turned down multiple college jobs, including Kentucky, so it's highly unlikely he leaves the Main Line for another college gig. There is, however, still always that chance he could jump to the NBA, especially if Villanova makes another deep run next season and the Sixers make a move with Brett Brown.

Ed Cooley, Providence Friars
Sixth season, 103-67
Cooley is a Providence native who has taken the Friars to three NCAA tournaments in his five years since coming back home. To put that into perspective, Providence went to three in the previous 17 seasons under the trio of Keno Davis (zero), Tim Welsh (two) and Pete Gillen (one). The 46-year-old Cooley will now have to rebuild after losing Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil, but he's built up no shortage of equity. Again, he's a favored son. Oh yeah, he also just agreed to a 10-year deal that goes through 2026.

Greg McDermott, Creighton Bluejays
Seventh season, 141-72
When Doug McDermott graduated after 2014, there was naturally that question about whether Creighton would get back to the NCAA tournament, especially while still undergoing a transition to the Big East. It wasn't pretty in the first season of the Post-Dougie Buckets Era; the Bluejays finished under .500. Last year, though, they won 20 games, went to the NIT and return its core and add Kansas State transfer Marcus Foster this season. McDermott's AD, Bruce Rasmussen, loves Big Mac and signed him to a 10-year deal when he hired him in 2010. I'm not sure McDermott goes anywhere in the near future, especially after already giving it a shot at Iowa State.

 

[Spence]

@Skooby

Sneaky strength of every NFL defense

Thanks breh

 

[Skooby]

@Skooby

Sneaky strength of every NFL defense

Thanks breh

Sneaky strength of every NFL defense

Every cloud has a silver lining, and every NFL team does something well. Even the worst team has certain plays and tendencies in which the players are productive.

Today, we've gone through Football Outsiders' extensive stat databases to point out one specific strength of each defense in 2015. (We examined each team's offense on Monday.) Some of these splits are significant for illuminating the strengths and weaknesses of each team's personnel. Other splits tend to oscillate wildly from year to year, and a great performance in 2015 may not indicate that a team will be equally strong in the same ways in 2016. Either way, the numbers provide an interesting window into what each team's defense did right last season.


Football Outsiders' advanced metrics are explained here. The most important is DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), which measures success on each play compared to the league average adjusted for situation and opponent. Because it is measured on a per-play basis, it can easily be separated to measure specific splits; you'll see a lot of those ratings below.

Charting stats such as frequency of blitzes, pass pressure and play-action come from research by ESPN Stats & Information. Other charting metrics, including cornerback coverage stats and broken tackles, come from Sports Information Solutions. You'll be able to find many more of these stats in our book "Football Outsiders Almanac 2016," which will be released online on Aug. 1.

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills
Although the Bills' defense struggled overall (24th in DVOA), they improved to sixth in the league in the fourth quarter or overtime. This wasn't just a case of opponents running out the clock in wins: The Bills had a better-than-average defense in the fourth quarter whether they were winning or losing the game.

Miami Dolphins
You may remember from Monday's article on under-the-radar offensive strengths that Miami's offense was much better on second down than on first or third. Oddly, this also was true for the Miami defense, which ranked seventh in DVOA on second down, including fifth against the run. That's much better than the Dolphins' overall ranking of 25th in defensive DVOA and 20th in DVOA against the run.

New England Patriots

Strong tackling technique is one of the reasons the Patriots' defense has been successful the past few years. The Pats allowed just 81 broken tackles last season, second overall. They also allowed the fewest broken tackles in 2014 and the second fewest in 2013.

New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens[/paste:font]
The Ravens' defense suffered last year primarily because of a lack of turnovers, but that's not an issue that generally affects your ability to stop the run. So Baltimore was much better in a couple of run-specific splits: first-down run defense (No. 5 in DVOA) and red zone run defense (No. 4 in DVOA).

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati was the league's best defense against passes thrown 16 or more yards downfield. The secondary excelled with 14 picks (no other team had more than 11 on deep passes), and the pass rush pressured QBs on 27 percent of these passes (sixth in the league, compared to an NFL average of 22 percent).

Cleveland Browns
The average NFL defense allows 1.5 more yards per play against play-action passes, but Cleveland actually allowed 1 yard per play less in 2015. The DVOA gap was smaller (minus-4.5 percent), but the Browns were one of only nine defenses with a better DVOA when opponents did not use play-action.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans[/paste:font]
The Texans sent a big blitz of six or more pass-rushers half as often as they did in 2014, but these plays were hugely successful for Houston, allowing just 2.8 yards per pass. The Texans were by far the league's best defense using dime personnel (six defensive backs), which it did 30 percent of the time. They allowed a league-low 4.3 yards per play and had an NFL-best minus-33.5 percent DVOA in dime.

Indianapolis Colts
Although the Indy defense was no better with five pass-rushers than it was with four, it allowed a league-low 2.6 yards per pass when sending a big blitz of six or more. The Colts did this on 9.9 percent of passes, which ranked eighth in the league in frequency.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville discovered the blitz last year, sending five or more pass-rushers almost twice as often as it had in 2014 (when it was dead last at 13.0 percent). It seemed to work, as the Jaguars allowed 7.5 yards per pass with four pass-rushers but 6.1 yards with five or more. In particular, blitzing a defensive back was successful; Jacksonville allowed only 3.1 yards per pass on these plays.

Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee defense didn't do a good job of covering receivers and chasing down ball carriers -- but once Titans defenders did get to a player with the ball, they almost always took him down. Tennessee allowed just 72 broken tackles, best in the league (the average defense had 104). And the Titans missed a tackle on just 6.2 percent of plays (NFL average: 9.0 percent). (The cloud for this silver lining: Tennessee's low total of broken tackles is partly caused by the other three AFC South teams ranking as the league's worst three offenses at breaking tackles.)

 

[Skooby]

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos
How do you pick an under-the-radar stat for a defense that did everything well? How about this: Denver was the best defense against play-action passes in the nine years we've measured that metric.

Kansas City Chiefs
No defense allowed fewer yards per play on wide receiver and tight end screens than the Chiefs at 2.8. Their minus-28.4 percent DVOA on these plays also ranked fifth.

Oakland Raiders
The Raiders were the second-best defense in the league against deep passes (16-plus yards downfield), trailing only the Bengals. They ranked No. 1 overall against deep throws to the left and right sides, while they were just average in the deep middle of the field.

San Diego Chargers
Jason Verrett is a real up-and-comer at cornerback. The second-year player ranked eighth among 75 cornerbacks with a 61 percent adjusted success rate, and 23rd with 7.2 adjusted yards per pass.



NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas defense was 25th in defensive DVOA on the first 80 yards of the field, but the Cowboys improved to seventh inside the red zone.

New York Giants
That trend was even stronger for the Giants, who ranked 30th in the league outside of the red zone, but improved to ninth in defensive DVOA inside the 20.

Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles were excellent at defending screens, compiling a minus-45.3 percent DVOA against running back screens and a minus-45.8 percent DVOA against wide receiver and tight end screens. Overall, Philly's minus-27.1 percent DVOA on passes behind the line of scrimmage ranked third in the league.

Washington Redskins
Terrance Knighton, is now playing for New England.)



NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears
The Bears' defense was surprisingly good at ending possessions quickly, ranking seventh in three-and-outs forced per drive.

Detroit Lions
Opponents ran the ball 31 percent of the time when lining up with three or more receivers against the Lions' defense, tied for the fourth-highest rate in the league. This was a poor choice, as Detroit's minus-27.9 percent DVOA on these runs ranked second in the NFL. The Lions also allowed just 3.5 yards per rush, best of any defense.

Green Bay Packers
The Packers were just average against short passes in the middle of the field, but they were excellent when offenses threw short passes to the outside, ranking fourth in DVOA against passes short left and third in DVOA against passes short right.

Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta Falcons[/paste:font]
The Falcons' defense ranked 30th in the NFL through three quarters but was No. 4 in DVOA in the fourth quarter or overtime.

Carolina Panthers
The Panthers actually didn't pressure opposing QBs as often as you might think. We have them marked with pressure on 26.3 percent of pass plays, ranked 12th and close to the NFL average of 25.6 percent. But when they did get pressure, the Panthers were spectacular, allowing a league-low 1.8 yards per play with a league-best minus-114.4 percent DVOA.

New Orleans Saints
It's hard to find something nice to say about the worst defense ever measured by our DVOA ratings (going back to 1989), but former CFL cornerback Delvin Breaux was a bright light in a pit of darkness. Our charting ranked Breaux 16th out of 75 cornerbacks with a 57 percent adjusted success rate, and 34th with 7.4 adjusted yards per pass. (By comparison, Brandon Browner was last among qualifying corners with 11.0 adjusted yards per pass allowed, and Kyle Wilson allowed 9.4.)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals[/paste:font]
The Cardinals were far and away the best third-and-long defense with minus-97.6 percent DVOA, well ahead of second-ranked Houston and its minus-61.7 percent DVOA.

Los Angeles Rams
Opponents tried to slow down the Rams' defensive line with screens. Many, many screens. The Rams faced the highest number of wide receiver screens (49) and the highest number of running back screens (37). They were good against both plays: minus-22.2 percent DVOA against wide receiver screens (eighth) and minus-20.3 percent DVOA against running back screens (10th).

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers allowed 8.0 yards per pass with a standard pass rush but only 5.6 yards per pass when blitzing. Defensive back blitzes were even better, allowing just 4.1 yards per pass.

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle allowed a league-low average of 4.4 yards after the catch, including just 7.4 average YAC on passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.