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Tobias Harris' fantasy value will increase after trade to Pistons
The deal
Detroit Pistons get: Forward Orlando Magic get: Guard Brandon Jennings, forward Ersan Ilyasova
The Pistons and Magic kicked off trade deadline week with a multi-player deal involving three guys whose names had popped up here and there on the rumor mill, but this specific swap had not been suggested. We might view our knee-jerk reactions differently once the deadline dust settles, but at first blush, it seems like the move should have an immediate, positive impact for only one of the three players involved. However, there are always ripple effects to deals such as this.
Let's take a look at what the deal means from a fantasy perspective.
What it means for the Pistons
Harris is the guy whose production should rise almost immediately. He's in the first season of a four-year, $64 million contract, and you don't take on cap space like that if you aren't committed to a player for the long haul. He'll start in Ilyasova's place, between Andre Drummond and Marcus Morris on Detroit's front line. The fit with Harris and Morris will be interesting -- both players are listed at 6-foot-9, 235 pounds, and both have combo forward skill sets.
Although redundancy in any lineup can be tricky, the combo forward tandem is in a sense similar to what Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy had in Orlando with Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. Just as that latter duo were paired to accentuate the abilities of Dwight Howard, so too will the results of a Harris/Morris pairing be judged by how they affect Drummond. However, in the long term, Stanley Johnson can be expected to take over at the 3 in Detroit, with Morris and his team-friendly contract taking a reserve role. That won't happen this season.
Harris will have a larger offensive role than he did in Orlando under Scott Skiles. Although he was averaging more than 32 minutes per game -- and should get at least that in Detroit -- Harris' usage rage (19.1 percent) was 2.4 percent under his career average and 3.4 percent off his 2014-15 total. In Detroit, Reggie Jackson and Drummond are the top options, but Harris could surpassKentavious Caldwell-Pope and Morris as the third guy. Ilyasova was averaging more shots on a per-minute basis that Harris, but the latter has more ability to create shots for himself. I can see Harris easily tacking on two or three points to his 13.7 season average while maintaining his other averages.
Meanwhile, the other numbers for the primary Pistons should hold steady, but you have to worry about the fact that Harris isn't as good a long-range shooter as Ilyasova. If that becomes a problem for the unit, Harris could start to lose minutes to Anthony Tolliver.
What it means for the Magic
Chances are this won't be the last deadline move by Orlando, which makes reading the Magic's new potential depth chart more difficult. For one thing, there is no sane reason to have Ilyasova andChanning Frye on the same roster, so you'd expect the latter to be on the move some time in the next couple days.
Jennings, still only a couple months removed from his return from a year of injury rehab, isn't likely to play a larger role for the Magic than he did for Detroit. When healthy, he's a better offensive player than Elfrid Payton, but the Magic are developing the latter. Neither moves the needle as a floor spacer and both present issues when paired with Victor Oladipo. I'd expect Jennings to continue what he was doing for Detroit in a similar role.
You can expect worse for Ilyasova. If Skiles and Magic GM Rob Hennigan felt having a stretch four was some kind of magic tonic, then Frye would have been playing more minutes. It's likely the Magic will remain committed to blossoming forward Aaron Gordon. That means Ilyasova's numbers and court time are likely to drop.
So why make these moves at all? It's probably financial. The Magic re-signed Harris to a sizable contract the past summer during his restricted free agency, but it was far from certain that he was a good fit for the talent the Magic have accumulated. Trading him now frees up future cap space and gives Orlando two veterans to work with. Jennings' contract is up after the season, while Ilyasova has only a small guarantee. Given these factors, the newest Magic aren't building blocks and aren't likely to steal minutes from the guys who are.
Even so, there could be an immediate payoff for rookie Mario Hezonja, who will battle Evan Fournier for minutes at 3. Hezonja has played with the swagger pre-draft reports suggested he would, and -- to put it mildly -- he hasn't been at all shy about taking shots, even in crunch situations. His court time of late has been on the rise. Over his past seven games, Hezonja has averaged 10.3 points in just over 20 minutes while chipping in with assists and a couple 3s per outing. Skiles would face a balancing act in managing the shots of Oladipo, Nikola Vucevic and Hezonja, but that's a hill he's going to have to climb at some point anyway.
The issue with fit is why Jennings should remain a reserve, but it's also a reason Fournier could return to the lineup. If the latter comes to fruition, it might be Oladipo who becomes the sixth man, as evidence has mounted that, given their current skill levels, Oladipo and Payton just don't work as a full-time backcourt.
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TrillCauleyStein
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Blake Griffin to Cavs, four more potential deals for superstars
The NBA trade deadline is 3 p.m. ET Thursday. During the past month we've heard rumblings that a number of star players could be available for the right price.
Here are five big trade targets -- Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Dwight Howard, Al Horford and Carmelo Anthony -- and the kind of offers it would take to get a deal done.
1. Carmelo Anthony
New York Knicks send: Carmelo Anthony
Los Angeles Lakers send: D'Angelo Russell and Roy Hibbert
View in ESPN's trade machine
The Lakers are one of the few teams for which Melo would likely consider waiving his no-trade clause. Also, with the Kristaps Porzingis love affair in full bloom in New York, the Knicks now have a player who buys them some time while they rebuild.
Russell would give them a dynamic guard who -- while struggling a bit early -- is the perfect sort of guard for the triangle.
Could Luke Walton be persuaded to coach a Knicks team anchored by Porzingis and Russell? One would think he'd be tempted.
As for the Lakers, adding Anthony would give them a real recruiting tool this summer when they hit the free-agent market with a ton of cash.
2 & 3. Blake Griffin for Kevin Love
Los Angeles Clippers send: Blake Griffin and Lance Stephenson
Cleveland Cavaliers send: Kevin Love and J.R. Smith
View trade in ESPN's trade machine
The Clippers and Cavs both know their power forwards are stars. But chemistry issues on both clubs have led to serious questions about whether they are good fits within their current teams. So why not swap them?
They are of similar ages and have similar PERs. Love (age 27) is an inferior defender, but a much better option to stretch the floor next to DeAndre Jordan. Griffin (26) would give the Cavs a third dynamic scorer and playmaker to go with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.
Throw in a couple of mercurial wings and you have the perfect deal. Perhaps a change of scenery would elevate both of their games.
4. Al Horford
Deal No. 1: Al Horford to the Orlando Magic for Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier
View in ESPN's trade machine
Deal No. 2: Horford, Kyle Korver and Mike Muscala to the Boston Celtics for Kelly Olynyk, Dallas' first-round pick (top-7 protected) and David Lee
View in ESPN's trade machine
The Hawks are running the risk of losing Horford for nothing this summer when he hits free agency -- but so does any team that trades for him. That limits his value significantly.
Vucevic, an above-average starting center on a very reasonable contract, and Fournier, a young shooting guard hitting nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc, are probably about as good as Atlanta is going to get. If I were the Hawks, I'd push for Aaron Gordon or Mario Hezonja, but given the chance that Horford could bolt this summer, I doubt the Magic would be willing to risk that much.
For the Magic, who are already in cap-clearing mode, they would try to sell Horford on going back to Florida (where he played college ball) and being the centerpiece of a terrific cast of young players like Elfrid Payton, Gordon, Hezonja and Victor Oladipo. I think it might be a compelling sell and could propel the Magic back into the playoffs this season.
The Celtics look like the other real contenders here. They could offer a young big man who is cheaper and more skilled than Vucevic in Olynyk. However, he lacks Vucevic's toughness or rebounding ability. And instead of Fournier, they could offer a mid first-round pick via the Mavs.
I'd prefer the Celtics deal, but if the Magic sweetened the trade by adding either Oladipo or Hezonja, I'd probably take Orlando's offer.
5. Dwight Howard
Houston Rockets send: Dwight Howard and Montrezl Harrell
Chicago Bulls send: Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson and Mike Dunleavy
View in ESPN's trade machine
Howard can opt out of his deal this summer and become a free agent, limiting his trade value for the Rockets. The lack of chemistry Houston faces right now doesn't really help his trade value much, either. But the Rockets aren't the only team facing adversity. The Bulls have their share of chemistry issues.
The Rockets once "traded for" Gasol (in the canceled CP3-to-Lakers deal), and he, like Howard, can opt out of his contract.
While neither Howard nor Gasol might be a long-term fit, the move would jump-start both teams as they make pivotal playoff runs -- especially with the Rockets adding Gibson, a veteran upgrade over their current power forwards and expendable to the Bulls thanks to young forwards Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis.
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Trade Grades: Heat send prospect to Pelicans
The Deal
Heat get: Protected second-round pick
Pelicans get: Forward Jarnell Stokes, $700,000 cash
Miami Heat: B+
With a few hours left until the deadline, the Heat are one step closer to avoiding the luxury tax this season. That's important not just for the money it would save owner Micky Arison in tax payments now, but also because of its huge importance down the road.
Miami did not pay the tax last season, and avoiding the tax for two consecutive years gives teams a three-year buffer against paying the much stiffer repeater taxes. Teams that have been taxpayers three out of the previous four seasons are subject to the repeater tax; if the Heat avoid that this season, they can't be repeaters again until 2019-20.
On its own, this deal slices Miami's tax bill by $2.1 million. It also puts the Heat just $2.7 million away from going under the tax line. Miami could get there by trading either Udonis Haslem orBrian Roberts, both making $2.85 million in the final season of their contracts. Haslem is a Heat lifer, so that seems like a long shot; the newly-acquired Roberts is a more reasonable possibility.
As for Stokes, he played just 14 minutes with Miami after being included in the team's November swap with the Memphis Grizzlies, so he won't really be missed.
New Orleans Pelicans: A
From the Pelicans' standpoint, this is essentially a free look at the 35th pick of the 2014 Draft. And it's better than that, even, since the cash the team is getting from the Heat, according to ESPN's Marc Stein, will more than cover Stokes' minimum salary the rest of the year. His contract is non-guaranteed for next season, meaning there's no long-term downside to New Orleans taking Stokes' contract into the trade exception created by sending Ish Smith to the Philadelphia 76ers in December.
Stokes was a favorite of statistical models coming out of Tennessee; he rated 14th overall in my 2014 WARP projections. That production has carried over at the D-League level, where Stokes has averaged 19.8 points and 12.3 rebounds per 36 minutes in 39 career games, making nearly 65 percent of his 2-point attempts. His 30.9 PER this season leads all D-League players, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
The biggest obstacle to Stokes getting on the court has been finding a position for him. Because he's so effective around the basket, he needs to play as a center on offense. At the other end, Stokes is simply too short (he's listed at 6-foot-9, but measured just 6-foot-7 without shoes at the NBA draft combine) to protect the rim. That could make Anthony Davis an ideal frontcourt partner because of his versatility. If not, the Pelicans haven't really lost anything by giving it a shot.
New Orleans will have to send something to Miami to make this trade legal, possibly the rights to 2010 draft pick Latavious Williams, which the team acquired at last year's deadline.
Trade Grades: How did the Bulls, Hawks and Jazz do?
The Deal
Hawks get: Guard Kirk Hinrich (from Bulls)
Jazz get: Guard Shelvin Mack (from Hawks)
Bulls: Forward Justin Holiday, 2018 Denver second-round pick (from Jazz)
Atlanta Hawks: B
Well, this wasn't exactly the move involving point guards we were expecting from the Hawks at the deadline. After a week of rumors, they decided to stand pat with their core but did make a move around the edges.
Mack, a key reserve as recently as 2013-14 and part-time player in 2014-15, had fallen out of the rotation this season. In his second tour of duty in Atlanta, Hinrich offers a bit more positional flexibility because of his ability to play either guard spot. He's probably more effective defending shooting guards than point guards. Giving Tim Hardaway Jr.'s minutes to Hinrich the rest of the season should be a slight upgrade.
The Hawks also got rid of Holiday's guaranteed 2016-17 salary. While he is scheduled to make only the minimum, that provides a little bit of wiggle room for Atlanta to re-sign unrestricted free agent Kent Bazemore using cap space.
Chicago Bulls: B
This was a financially motivated deal for the Bulls, who save about $3.5 million in salary and taxes by trading from Hinrich's $2.9 million contract to Holiday's minimum deal. Chicago not only avoided giving up any picks in the process but actually got one for its trouble.
Still, there's a cost here. Hinrich was part of the rotation when healthy and was important insurance for Derrick Rose's availability. With E'Twaun Moore starting at shooting guard, coach Fred Hoiberg will have to shuffle things around if (when?) Rose misses time.
Mike Dunleavy's return means the Bulls might now be slightly deeper on the wings, so Holiday is unlikely to play a role. He was never able to hold down a spot in the Atlanta rotation and remains more of an aspiring 3-and-D wing than an actual one as a career 28.8 percent 3-point shooter.
Utah Jazz: B-plus
The Jazz dealing for a starting point guard was always a long shot with Dante Exum due back next season. Mack upgrades coach Quin Snyder's options at the position without any kind of long-term commitment. (His $2.4 million salary for 2016-17 is non-guaranteed through July 7, though Utah may want to keep him around at what would be an excellent price for a backup point guard rather than a third one.)
Mack isn't quite the outside shooter the Jazz would ideally like at point guard next to ball-dominant wings Alec Burks, Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood -- he's a career 31.7 percent 3-point shooter -- but he's capable enough that he can play off the ball.
The better fit is at the defensive end, where Mack is big and physical enough to defend smaller shooting guards. That will give Utah the option of cross-matching at guard, something that's not possible with incumbent point guards Trey Burke and Raul Neto.
The Jazz are able to take Mack into cap space and will spend little additional money because they were previously under the salary floor. That said, I can't help but wonder if Utah might not have been better off just taking Hinrich as a defensive-minded backup.
McShay's new No. 1 QB featured in updated Top 32
With the NFL scouting combine (Feb. 23-29) fast approaching, let's take a look at the players who have moved up and down our Top 32, drawing on the same scouting reports and making changes only where necessary.
We'll continue to update our board as we get closer to the 2016 NFL draft. Although it's a given that some players will move into the rankings while others drop out, this provides a good snapshot of which players currently have the most NFL potential, based on our evaluations. For our full rankings list, check out this link.
(Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk.)
1. Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State*
No change here. From start to finish, Bosa left his mark in Columbus with 50.5 tackles for loss in 41 career games. He shows a consistent ability to convert speed to power and keep offensive linemen off-balance with a wide array of pass-rush moves. He's a dynamic talent wherever you put him along the D-line.
2. Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State*
NFL teams will love Ramsey's versatility. He can line up against a slot receiver one play and patrol center field the next. A star on FSU's track and field team, Ramsey brings a unique athletic skill set to the table. He'll turn heads in Indy.
3. Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi*
The best left tackle prospect in the draft, Tunsil is an exceptional athlete for a 310-pounder. He is quick to redirect and mirror top pass-rushers, and he has great range as a run-blocker. Because of his mobility, he would fit best in a zone blocking-heavy scheme.
4. Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida*
Hargreaves does a good job in press-man coverage by consistently redirecting wide receivers. He's a little undersized (5-foot-11, 195 pounds), but with four interceptions this season, Hargreaves showed he has the instincts and aggressiveness to develop into a good starting cornerback in the NFL.
5. Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
If you want to see a left tackle put on a clinic in pass protection, flip on the Notre Dame-Ohio State tape, and watch Stanley. He has proved that he can play both left and right tackle, which makes him an even more appealing prospect to NFL teams. He plays with great balance and has the ideal frame, length and athleticism to protect a QB's blindside at the next level.
6. DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
In a draft full of versatile D-linemen, Buckner stands out because of his ability to convert speed to power, no matter where he lines up. He shows a nasty, aggressive demeanor on tape, which is exactly what you want from your defensive linemen. A consistent force, Buckner posted 17.0 TFLs (including 10.5 sacks) in 2015.
7. Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
Rankins was clearly the best defensive lineman in Senior Bowl practices, as he showed explosiveness in one-on-one pass-rush drills and stuffed the run during 11-on-11. He has compiled 15 sacks the past two seasons and is a load for any O-line to handle because of his rare combination of quickness and power.
8. Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
I've finally had time to study enough tape on the top QBs to put Wentz No. 1, slightly ahead of Jared Goff. Wentz has the frame (6-foot-5¼, 233 pounds). He has the arm. He can make all the throws -- even in cold, windy weather. He's a mobile QB who extends plays with his feet. And in the most important areas of QB evaluation -- mental makeup and accuracy -- Wentz grades out extremely high.
9. Jared Goff, QB, Cal*
Goff has great physical tools -- a smooth stroke, a near-elite arm, ideal height -- and the high football IQ that NFL teams look for in college QBs. He'll pick up the pro game quickly from a mental standpoint. I wish he had a little more bulk on his wiry frame, but that's something he can address over time.
10. Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama
Ragland didn't get the opportunity to rush the passer a lot at Alabama, but in drills at the Senior Bowl, he flashed the ability to routinely beat RBs and O-linemen around the edge. Ragland's football intelligence, toughness and natural, straight-line speed are readily apparent when you watch the tape.
11. Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA*
An explosive athlete who moonlighted as a running back for the Bruins, Jack holds up well in space and displays easy change-of-direction skills. He has shown the ability to cover bigger receivers in the slot and has excellent awareness and instincts in coverage. Jack told ESPN he won't work out in Indy while he recovers from a knee injury, but his medical info will get a good look.
12. A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama*
Robinson had just 9.0 career sacks in 42 career games, but those numbers are deceiving. Turn on the tape, and you see a guy who is frequently disruptive as a pass-rusher, pushing the pocket and forcing QBs off their spots. Throughout his career, he showed the ability to play multiple spots along Alabama's defensive front.
13. Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State*
A walk-on-turned-All-American, Conklin plays with great effort and is a punishing blocker in the run game. He needs to improve his consistency with his technique in pass protection, but he has the skill set to compete from day one for a starting job in the NFL.
14. Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame*
Prior to Smith's suffering a torn ACL and MCL in Notre Dame's bowl game, I was convinced he was a top-five pick. Smith's draft stock will now be largely dependent on how his medical information checks out, but his superb game tape won't be ignored by teams. When healthy, he's the top linebacker in this class.
15. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State*
Elliott has the combination of patience, vision and suddenness to excel as an interior runner in the NFL. He keeps defenders off-balance with smooth change-of-direction skills. Elliott is a powerful back who almost always churns out yards after initial contact and falls forward at the end of runs.
16. Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama
Reed occupies multiple blockers and plugs rushing lanes better than any interior lineman in this draft. He showed the ability to beat double- and triple-teams on multiple occasions in Mobile. Entering the season, Reed's production as a pass-rusher was underwhelming, but I was impressed with his improvement there, as he registered eight quarterback hurries.
17. Laquon Treadwell, WR, Mississippi*
Treadwell is the clear-cut top WR in this class. He's not a burner, but he shows outstanding hand-eye coordination and body control. He does an especially good job of working the sideline and getting his feet in bounds. Coming off a gruesome leg injury, Treadwell was understandably cautious in the beginning of the season, but he finished the year with 82 catches, 1,153 yards and 11 TDs.
18. Vonn Bell, S, Ohio State*
With nine career interceptions, Bell has elite cover skills for a safety. He shows good recovery speed when needed and can match up with most slot wide receivers and tight ends one-on-one. An aggressive, tough run-defender, Bell has remarkable durability and played in all 42 Ohio State games since 2013. This is an NFL-ready safety who could start day one.
19. Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi*
The combine interviews will be especially important for Nkemdiche, who is a top-five talent with off-the-field baggage. You can bet NFL teams will dig into Nkemdiche's personal history to see if he's worth the risk of a first-round pick. The arrow is starting to point in the wrong direction for Nkemdiche, who plays with outstanding quickness for his size (6-foot-4, 296 pounds) and is scheme-versatile.
20. Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas*
At 6-foot-5, 253 pounds, Henry has the body type to make plays down the seam. He uses his frame well to shield defenders from the ball in contested situations. Henry put up impressive numbers in a run-heavy offense: 51 catches, 739 yards and three touchdowns.
21. Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson*
Lawson was downright dominant this season, as he led the entire country with 25.5 tackles for loss. He's an excellent run-defender but doesn't have elite athleticism off the edge, which limits his ceiling as a pass-rusher a little. But at 6-foot-3, 270 pounds, Lawson has a unique combination of quickness and power.
22. Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
Decker is a stud in the run game. He's strong enough to sustain blocks and get pushed off the line of scrimmage and agile enough be effective at the second level. Decker has ideal length and enough range and strength to develop into a solid left tackle starter in the NFL.
23. Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State*
Apple will need to improve his technique when playing press coverage, but he shows the quick feet and speed to turn and run with faster receivers. At 6-foot-1, 200 pounds, he has the length that a lot of NFL teams are looking for in their cornerbacks, and as an added bonus, he's a terrific run-defender.
24. Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor*
Billings has freakish weight room strength that he puts to good use as an interior run-defender. He has the quickness and raw power to have upside as a pass-rusher, and that showed in 2015. After recording 2.5 sacks in the first 15 games of his career, he had 5.5 in his last 12.
25. Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State*
Lee is an outstanding athlete for his position, a true sideline-to-sideline defender who displays a good combination of athleticism, range, versatility and playmaking instincts. With 27.5 tackles for loss the past two seasons, Lee was a huge playmaker on the Buckeyes' defense. He fits today's NFL extremely well.
26. Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson*
Alexander lacks ideal size for a corner (5-foot-11, 195 pounds), but he's a terrific, quick-twitch athlete. He has one of the higher ceilings in this year's cornerback class, thanks to his pure press-man coverage skills. Alexander still needs to refine his technique, but he shows good suddenness, body control and closing burst.
27. Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis*
Lynch played in a system that featured a high percentage of throws near and behind the line of scrimmage and a lot of predetermined or half-field reads. As such, he needs a lot of polishing in the mental aspects of playing QB in the NFL, and he could hit some early bumps in the road. But his above-average accuracy and outstanding mobility make him an intriguing prospect.
28. Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech*
Butler moves like he weighs 290 pounds instead of 325. His upper-body power was evident in bag drills at the Senior Bowl. Butler needs to be more consistent, but there aren't many big guys with his skill set.
29. Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia*
Floyd has outstanding potential as an edge rusher. With a lean frame (6-foot-3, 235 pounds), there is no doubt that he'll need to improve his ability to take on blocks at the next level. But Floyd's speed will always be coveted by defenses from the outside linebacker position.
30. Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson*
Dodd's teammate, Shaq Lawson, rightfully received a lot of hype this season, but remember: Dodd finished second in the country with 23.5 tackles for loss. When you watch him on tape, it's easy to see why. He plays with good speed and brings great energy to the game. One concern: Is he just a one-year wonder?
31. Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State*
Jones has flashed on the little bit of tape of him that we have been able to study. His measurables are outstanding. He needs to play with more consistent leverage, but he's strong at the point of attack. He can be a highly disruptive interior player -- in both facets, but against the run more so than the pass.
32. Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky
You can't teach Spence's quickness off the edge. It's a testament to his talent that he's a fringe first-rounder, considering all his off-the-field issues. A former top recruit, Spence was suspended twice at Ohio State for using ecstasy. He then transferred to Eastern Kentucky in 2015.
Mel Kiper's 2016 NFL Mock Draft 2.0
One thing I always need to remind myself about the draft: You can't overstate your perception of immediate needs. That's because while teams do factor in where the roster needs to be deeper and where clear holes exist, nobody assumes that even the top picks in the draft are going to just come in and plug holes from day one. The other reason I mention that is because teams are about to set off addressing needs in free agency, going after experienced players with actual NFL track records. Many of the best teams are able to largely bypass the free-agency process, but overall, it does allow teams to target needs and make the draft more about taking the best player at every turn -- which is how evaluators prefer to approach things.
So keep that in mind as you look through this second mock draft of the season. Need matters, but in many cases, it also will be something that changes between now and the end of April.
A player with an asterisk next to his name has a year of eligibility remaining. Two asterisks implies two years.
1. Tennessee Titans
*Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
The No. 1 pick in the 2016 NFL draft could end up being directly tied to the No. 2 pick in the 2015 NFL draft. In short: The Titans have no choice but to improve their offensive line and do whatever they can to make sure Marcus Mariota is on the field for more than the 12 games he played as a rookie. Getting the offensive lineman with the highest upside in the draft is a good place to start.
2. Cleveland Browns
Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
We still have a couple of months to debate whether this will be Wentz or Jared Goff. But remember there's also the distinct possibility that Hue Jackson and the new front office aggressively pursue another QB in the trade market. I note that because regardless of whether the Browns draft a QB in this spot, it's almost certainly not their preference to start him in Week 1.
3. San Diego Chargers
DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
If Tunsil is still available here, the Chargers would have a tough time passing on him, given the mess that has been their offensive line over the past few seasons. Buckner and Joey Bosa are going to grade out similarly, so it's more about preference and fit. That said, Buckner fits pretty much everywhere.
4. Dallas Cowboys
*Jared Goff, QB, California
This is going to be a fascinating situation. On one hand, the Dallas front office isn't the least bit delusional if they look at the roster with a healthy Tony Romo and believe they can compete for a playoff spot, which makes it harder to take a QB who might not see the field for a couple of years. But ... let's not forget that they need to upgrade the backup QB situation, period. That's what derailed them last season when Romo was out. Tough call, especially if Goff is the top QB on their board and he's available here.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
*Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida State
The temptation to take Bosa here is probably strong, because both he and Ramsey would help defend the pass, one in coverage, the other by reducing the time any opposing QB can hang onto the ball. But with Dante Fowler Jr. coming back, they go with Ramsey, a gifted, versatile player who can play corner or safety.
6. Baltimore Ravens
*Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
At this point, a team that has multiple needs will find it hard to pass on Bosa, who is the best player on the board here. He comes in with the ability to immediately upgrade the pass rush, and unlike many rookies who can get after the passer, Bosa is also a dynamic run defender.
7. San Francisco 49ers
*Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
The 49ers had their linebacking corps diminished before the season even started in 2015, and Jack -- who will be 100 percent even though he's not a full workout participant at the NFL combine -- gives them immediate help as a gifted linebacker who can cover as well as a good safety.
8. Miami Dolphins
*Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
Adam Gase will be charged with getting Ryan Tannehill back on track, and getting a potentially elite tackle is a good way to aid in that process, as sacks have plagued Tannehill throughout his career thus far. Stanley returned to Notre Dame and made himself more NFL-ready. The Dolphins would benefit if he's available here.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
*Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida
The best pure cover corner in the draft would benefit anyone, and the Bucs are in a division where they have to face Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton six times a season. Tampa Bay needs a talent infusion at cornerback, and Hargreaves is going to grade out as a player who is ready to be on the field in Week 1.
10. New York Giants
*Noah Spence, DE/OLB, Eastern Kentucky
The departure of Jason Pierre-Paul is a likelihood, and that leaves the Giants extremely vulnerable to opposing passers if they don't find help in the pass rush. Spence comes with off-field concerns, but also the upside to be a major force as an edge rusher. It'll be hard to pass on him at this point.
11. Chicago Bears
*Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame
If Jaylon Smith's Notre Dame career hadn't ended with him being carted off the field in the Fiesta Bowl, you're looking at a player who wouldn't be available here. If it's just about the tape, this is one of the top three or four players in the entire draft, a gifted sideline-to-sideline defender who can cover. The potential reward at a position of need makes him a great addition here.
12. New Orleans Saints
Sheldon Rankins, DL, Louisville
The Saints are in the midst of a rebuild on the defensive side of the ball, and Rankins can be unblockable when he's at his best, with exceptional quickness and the ability to make plays in the backfield from the interior. A stellar week at the Senior Bowl secured his place in the top half of Round 1.
13. Philadelphia Eagles
*Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State
Philadelphia has a need at tackle, and Conklin has been a consistent performer over the past three seasons and will be ready to contribute as a rookie. Adding him could help secure the Eagles' immediate future at tackle with Lane Johnson signed for the long term.
14. Oakland Raiders
**Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State
Cornerback is a major need for the Raiders, which should be addressed in free agency and the draft. Apple is going to deal with some growing pains because he needs to be better from a technical standpoint and not so reliant on his physical ability, but he has coveted above-average size and tremendous potential.
15. Los Angeles Rams
*Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
Plenty of people will want to see the Rams go after a quarterback at this spot, but with the top two quarterbacks already off the board in this scenario, they don't have the option of taking a clear immediate upgrade at that position. Treadwell is better than a consolation prize, a potential No. 1 wide receiver who might not work out like a track star but has tape that shows he can make an impact in Year 1.
16. Detroit Lions
Jarran Reed, DL, Alabama
The Lions need to add talent to the interior of the defensive line even if Haloti Ngata returns for another year (or more). Reed isn't going to get sacks, but he immediately upgrades the run defense and is the kind of player who makes everyone around him better because he's so hard to move and can occupy blockers.
17. Atlanta Falcons
*Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson
While Vic Beasley flashed potential as a rookie, he wasn't a force consistently, and the Falcons can't go wrong adding more to the pass rush. Lawson is well-coached and has more size to stay on the field and hold up as a three-down defender in either a 3-4 or 4-3 look, thanks to a versatile skill set.
18. Indianapolis Colts
Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama
Forget best player available and instead consider Kelly at this slot as best offensive lineman available. The Colts don't just need better protection for Andrew Luck in pass protection, they also have the opportunity to protect Luck through the ability to run the ball more consistently, and Kelly is going to help immediately in that regard.
19. Buffalo Bills
*Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson
Mario Williams is on the way out, and the difference between Buffalo being a playoff team or an also-ran is going to come from the Bills' ability to make major strides on the defensive side of the ball. Rex Ryan will get an NFL-ready defender who won't just make plays in the backfield as a pass-rusher, but also has the strength to defend the run and instincts to find the ball.
20. New York Jets
Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
Last year, the Jets took the best player available in Round 1 when they nabbed Leonard Williams at No. 6 overall, and Ragland certainly qualifies as a BPA if he's still around at No. 20. A monster against the run, Ragland plays faster than he'll run at the combine because of great instincts. Draft him with the expectation you can start him in Week 1.
21. Washington Redskins
*A'Shawn Robinson, DL, Alabama
The Redskins became a more physical team in the 2015 draft, and the addition of Robinson would continue that trend for a general manager who knows great teams are built in the trenches. Washington has an improved pass rush but they need to get younger on the defensive interior, and Robinson comes in ready to contribute.
22. Houston Texans
*Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
Arian Foster could be a cap casualty as he attempts to come back from a devastating injury, and Elliott can come in and provide a lot of what Foster has done so well -- a complete back who gets downhill and offers a consistent weapon in the passing game with great hands. Elliott is also an extraordinary blocker and a quarterback's best friend, whomever that QB is.
23. Minnesota Vikings
Cody Whitehair, G, Kansas State
The Vikings need help at both tackle and guard, and while Whitehair played left tackle, I've had him listed as a future NFL guard for two years now. If he comes off the board in this range, an inevitable (and fair) comparison will be Zack Martin, whom Dallas drafted in 2014 as a left tackle they immediately plugged in at guard with great results.
24. Cincinnati Bengals
Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
The Bengals could be doing some rebuilding in the secondary, but depending on how things shake out in free agency, they also could be looking for a No. 2 wide receiver opposite A.J. Green. Doctson is a burner with great ball skills. He's a weapon because of his speed without the ball and also with the ball in his hands; he can take short throws and turn them into long gains.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers
*Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
The Pittsburgh secondary really held back the defense in 2015 and will be a big focus this offseason. Unfortunately, the Steelers can't win bidding wars in free agency because of their cap situation, so they need to add help in the draft and also hope that Senquez Golson comes back ready to provide an impact.
26. Seattle Seahawks
*Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Ole Miss
If a player like Cody Whitehair is still available at this point, you could see the Seahawks looking to address an immediate need on the offensive line. If not, Nkemdiche is more than a consolation prize if he can stay focused and put major off-field questions to rest. He's a top-10 talent but could see his stock slip if teams don't trust him, especially in a draft that is loaded with future impact starters on the defensive line.
27. Green Bay Packers
*Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas
The Packers need more weapons for Aaron Rodgers, but they do get Jordy Nelson back from injury and Henry offers a matchup threat as a big-bodied pass-catcher who can get extra yardage after the catch. We're long past the point where we discount the idea of a tight end as a true weapon. Henry can help this offense.
28. Kansas City Chiefs
Jihad Ward, DE, Illinois
Another player who has risen on my board over the past month, Ward is a first-rounder because of his versatility as a lineman who can set the edge and also move inside. Ward has exceptional physical traits and is a high-ceiling talent because he's still just figuring things out and could be coached up into a truly special player.
29. Arizona Cardinals
*Kamalei Correa, OLB, Boise State
The Cardinals were fortunate that Dwight Freeney still had his spin move going into 2015, and they need to add more in the pass rush. Correa offers some of what we saw from a young Freeney as a quick-twitch edge rusher who can beat tackles with quickness and could be a useful situational pass-rusher early in his career for a team that needs to close out games as teams play catch-up throwing the ball. See the QB, get the QB.
30. Carolina Panthers
**Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
The Panthers were creative with their personnel at cornerback this past season; they reached the Super Bowl even with a number of injuries diminishing the secondary. Alexander needs coaching but, like Josh Norman, is a ferocious competitor with the potential for greatness. Repeat after me: Great teams can't have enough good cornerbacks.
31. Denver Broncos
Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
The Broncos should be better along the offensive line in Year 2 of Gary Kubiak's tenure, and Decker is the kind of athlete and run-blocker who can thrive in Kubiak's system. The Broncos aren't going to be able to shop for starting tackles in free agency, given the type of talent they'll be attempting to retain, and Decker offers good value here.
* There will be only 31 picks in the first round in 2016, with New England's first-round pick forfeited.
*Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson
Mario Williams is on the way out, and the difference between Buffalo being a playoff team or an also-ran is going to come from the Bills' ability to make major strides on the defensive side of the ball. Rex Ryan will get an NFL-ready defender who won't just make plays in the backfield as a pass-rusher, but also has the strength to defend the run and instincts to find the ball.
20. New York Jets
Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
Last year, the Jets took the best player available in Round 1 when they nabbed Leonard Williams at No. 6 overall, and Ragland certainly qualifies as a BPA if he's still around at No. 20. A monster against the run, Ragland plays faster than he'll run at the combine because of great instincts. Draft him with the expectation you can start him in Week 1.
21. Washington Redskins
*A'Shawn Robinson, DL, Alabama
The Redskins became a more physical team in the 2015 draft, and the addition of Robinson would continue that trend for a general manager who knows great teams are built in the trenches. Washington has an improved pass rush but they need to get younger on the defensive interior, and Robinson comes in ready to contribute.
22. Houston Texans
*Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
Arian Foster could be a cap casualty as he attempts to come back from a devastating injury, and Elliott can come in and provide a lot of what Foster has done so well -- a complete back who gets downhill and offers a consistent weapon in the passing game with great hands. Elliott is also an extraordinary blocker and a quarterback's best friend, whomever that QB is.
23. Minnesota Vikings
Cody Whitehair, G, Kansas State
The Vikings need help at both tackle and guard, and while Whitehair played left tackle, I've had him listed as a future NFL guard for two years now. If he comes off the board in this range, an inevitable (and fair) comparison will be Zack Martin, whom Dallas drafted in 2014 as a left tackle they immediately plugged in at guard with great results.
24. Cincinnati Bengals
Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
The Bengals could be doing some rebuilding in the secondary, but depending on how things shake out in free agency, they also could be looking for a No. 2 wide receiver opposite A.J. Green. Doctson is a burner with great ball skills. He's a weapon because of his speed without the ball and also with the ball in his hands; he can take short throws and turn them into long gains.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers
*Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
The Pittsburgh secondary really held back the defense in 2015 and will be a big focus this offseason. Unfortunately, the Steelers can't win bidding wars in free agency because of their cap situation, so they need to add help in the draft and also hope that Senquez Golson comes back ready to provide an impact.
26. Seattle Seahawks
*Robert Nkemdiche, DL, Ole Miss
If a player like Cody Whitehair is still available at this point, you could see the Seahawks looking to address an immediate need on the offensive line. If not, Nkemdiche is more than a consolation prize if he can stay focused and put major off-field questions to rest. He's a top-10 talent but could see his stock slip if teams don't trust him, especially in a draft that is loaded with future impact starters on the defensive line.
27. Green Bay Packers
*Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas
The Packers need more weapons for Aaron Rodgers, but they do get Jordy Nelson back from injury and Henry offers a matchup threat as a big-bodied pass-catcher who can get extra yardage after the catch. We're long past the point where we discount the idea of a tight end as a true weapon. Henry can help this offense.
28. Kansas City Chiefs
Jihad Ward, DE, Illinois
Another player who has risen on my board over the past month, Ward is a first-rounder because of his versatility as a lineman who can set the edge and also move inside. Ward has exceptional physical traits and is a high-ceiling talent because he's still just figuring things out and could be coached up into a truly special player.
29. Arizona Cardinals
*Kamalei Correa, OLB, Boise State
The Cardinals were fortunate that Dwight Freeney still had his spin move going into 2015, and they need to add more in the pass rush. Correa offers some of what we saw from a young Freeney as a quick-twitch edge rusher who can beat tackles with quickness and could be a useful situational pass-rusher early in his career for a team that needs to close out games as teams play catch-up throwing the ball. See the QB, get the QB.
30. Carolina Panthers
**Mackensie Alexander, CB, Clemson
The Panthers were creative with their personnel at cornerback this past season; they reached the Super Bowl even with a number of injuries diminishing the secondary. Alexander needs coaching but, like Josh Norman, is a ferocious competitor with the potential for greatness. Repeat after me: Great teams can't have enough good cornerbacks.
31. Denver Broncos
Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State
The Broncos should be better along the offensive line in Year 2 of Gary Kubiak's tenure, and Decker is the kind of athlete and run-blocker who can thrive in Kubiak's system. The Broncos aren't going to be able to shop for starting tackles in free agency, given the type of talent they'll be attempting to retain, and Decker offers good value here.
* There will be only 31 picks in the first round in 2016, with New England's first-round pick forfeited.
thanks brehMcShay's new No. 1 QB featured in updated Top 32
With the NFL scouting combine (Feb. 23-29) fast approaching, let's take a look at the players who have moved up and down our Top 32, drawing on the same scouting reports and making changes only where necessary.
We'll continue to update our board as we get closer to the 2016 NFL draft. Although it's a given that some players will move into the rankings while others drop out, this provides a good snapshot of which players currently have the most NFL potential, based on our evaluations. For our full rankings list, check out this link.
(Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk.)
1. Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State*
No change here. From start to finish, Bosa left his mark in Columbus with 50.5 tackles for loss in 41 career games. He shows a consistent ability to convert speed to power and keep offensive linemen off-balance with a wide array of pass-rush moves. He's a dynamic talent wherever you put him along the D-line.
2. Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State*
NFL teams will love Ramsey's versatility. He can line up against a slot receiver one play and patrol center field the next. A star on FSU's track and field team, Ramsey brings a unique athletic skill set to the table. He'll turn heads in Indy.
3. Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi*
The best left tackle prospect in the draft, Tunsil is an exceptional athlete for a 310-pounder. He is quick to redirect and mirror top pass-rushers, and he has great range as a run-blocker. Because of his mobility, he would fit best in a zone blocking-heavy scheme.
4. Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida*
Hargreaves does a good job in press-man coverage by consistently redirecting wide receivers. He's a little undersized (5-foot-11, 195 pounds), but with four interceptions this season, Hargreaves showed he has the instincts and aggressiveness to develop into a good starting cornerback in the NFL.
5. Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame
If you want to see a left tackle put on a clinic in pass protection, flip on the Notre Dame-Ohio State tape, and watch Stanley. He has proved that he can play both left and right tackle, which makes him an even more appealing prospect to NFL teams. He plays with great balance and has the ideal frame, length and athleticism to protect a QB's blindside at the next level.
6. DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon
In a draft full of versatile D-linemen, Buckner stands out because of his ability to convert speed to power, no matter where he lines up. He shows a nasty, aggressive demeanor on tape, which is exactly what you want from your defensive linemen. A consistent force, Buckner posted 17.0 TFLs (including 10.5 sacks) in 2015.
7. Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville
Rankins was clearly the best defensive lineman in Senior Bowl practices, as he showed explosiveness in one-on-one pass-rush drills and stuffed the run during 11-on-11. He has compiled 15 sacks the past two seasons and is a load for any O-line to handle because of his rare combination of quickness and power.
8. Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
I've finally had time to study enough tape on the top QBs to put Wentz No. 1, slightly ahead of Jared Goff. Wentz has the frame (6-foot-5¼, 233 pounds). He has the arm. He can make all the throws -- even in cold, windy weather. He's a mobile QB who extends plays with his feet. And in the most important areas of QB evaluation -- mental makeup and accuracy -- Wentz grades out extremely high.
9. Jared Goff, QB, Cal*
Goff has great physical tools -- a smooth stroke, a near-elite arm, ideal height -- and the high football IQ that NFL teams look for in college QBs. He'll pick up the pro game quickly from a mental standpoint. I wish he had a little more bulk on his wiry frame, but that's something he can address over time.
10. Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama
Ragland didn't get the opportunity to rush the passer a lot at Alabama, but in drills at the Senior Bowl, he flashed the ability to routinely beat RBs and O-linemen around the edge. Ragland's football intelligence, toughness and natural, straight-line speed are readily apparent when you watch the tape.
11. Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA*
An explosive athlete who moonlighted as a running back for the Bruins, Jack holds up well in space and displays easy change-of-direction skills. He has shown the ability to cover bigger receivers in the slot and has excellent awareness and instincts in coverage. Jack told ESPN he won't work out in Indy while he recovers from a knee injury, but his medical info will get a good look.
12. A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama*
Robinson had just 9.0 career sacks in 42 career games, but those numbers are deceiving. Turn on the tape, and you see a guy who is frequently disruptive as a pass-rusher, pushing the pocket and forcing QBs off their spots. Throughout his career, he showed the ability to play multiple spots along Alabama's defensive front.
13. Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State*
A walk-on-turned-All-American, Conklin plays with great effort and is a punishing blocker in the run game. He needs to improve his consistency with his technique in pass protection, but he has the skill set to compete from day one for a starting job in the NFL.
14. Jaylon Smith, OLB, Notre Dame*
Prior to Smith's suffering a torn ACL and MCL in Notre Dame's bowl game, I was convinced he was a top-five pick. Smith's draft stock will now be largely dependent on how his medical information checks out, but his superb game tape won't be ignored by teams. When healthy, he's the top linebacker in this class.
15. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State*
Elliott has the combination of patience, vision and suddenness to excel as an interior runner in the NFL. He keeps defenders off-balance with smooth change-of-direction skills. Elliott is a powerful back who almost always churns out yards after initial contact and falls forward at the end of runs.