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Three teams that can follow the Broncos' blueprint
While they say "defense wins championships," conventional wisdom suggests you need some offense, special teams and a bit of luck too. But the 2015 Denver Broncos really challenged the concept of "some offense." Denver was the only team in 2015 to win a game without scoring an offensive touchdown, and it almost did so three times had it not been for a late C.J. Andersonscore in Super Bowl 50. Fittingly, that was a 4-yard drive after Cam Newton's second lost fumble. Denver finished with 104 net passing yards, the fewest in any of Peyton Manning's 293 career games.
This was supposed to be a quarterback-driven era where teams like the 2000 Ravens could no longer win a Super Bowl, but Manning was able to ride his defense to a championship despite the offense having the lowest defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) ranking (25th) for any Super Bowl winner since the first year of Football Outsiders' metric in 1989. It was not as if the offense heated up in the playoffs either. Out of 50 Super Bowl champions, Denver's average of 14 first downs per game in the postseason ranks only ahead of the 11 averaged by the 2000 Ravens with Trent Dilfer at quarterback.
If Denver's strategy were a TV advertisement, it would come with a "do not try this at home" warning. Most teams cannot repeat this type of success because of how uniquely the Broncos werebuilt by John Elway.
There were remnants of a record-setting offense from 2013, but the construction of the defense was crucial to this team. Super Bowl MVP Von Miller is the type of transcendent talent you usually can find only at the top of a draft. Denver also used premium draft picks to build its defense with Derek Wolfe, Sylvester Williams and Bradley Roby, while developing hidden gems such as Chris Harris Jr., Malik Jackson, Danny Trevathan and Brandon Marshall. Money was spent well in free agency on DeMarcus Ware, Emmanuel Sanders, Aqib Talib, Louis Vasquez and T.J. Ward. Even some more low-key moves such as Darian Stewart, Evan Mathis and Owen Daniels paid off in the end.
Denver's success did not just happen overnight; the Broncos earned a first-round bye for the fourth year in a row. This team was a major contender, but put it together for a title only after getting the most out of the defense while the offense just stayed out of harm's way. Can other teams duplicate that in 2016?
We found three double-digit-win teams from 2015 that have been on the right path, and could finish next season on top the way Denver did with a few more improvements.
New York Jets
Todd Bowles' first year as head coach went better than expected with the Jets finishing 10-6 and almost making the playoffs. There were new additions, such as the passing combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Marshall, and important returning stars, mainly cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. Fitzpatrick broke several franchise records and had the first winning season of his career. The Jets were only the 22nd team in NFL history to score at least 17 points in all 16 games, but Fitzpatrick's gunslinger tendencies still proved problematic when he had to carry the team. New York was 9-0 when giving up fewer than 21 points, but 1-6 when giving up more than 21 points. With a chance to put the Jets in the playoffs in Week 17, Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter in Buffalo.
Assuming the Jets stick with Fitzpatrick instead of giving Geno Smith another shot, the offense should be solid again as Eric Decker and Marshall combined to make a great WR duo. But Fitzpatrick is still best served when he does not have to throw the ball 40 times.
Though the Jets finished fifth in defensive DVOA, there is room for improvement. Bowles came from Arizona, where Bruce Arians loves a blitz-happy defensive scheme. Last year, the Jets finished second to Arizona in blitz rate (43.8 percent), according to ESPN Stats & Information. A focus of the offseason will be to find a great pass-rushing linebacker.
But even without that this season, the Jets were able to beat the Patriots in Week 16 by dominating in the trenches. The defensive line is where the Jets have spent most of their premium draft resources, using first-round picks on Muhammad Wilkerson (2011), Sheldon Richardson (2013) and Leonard Williams (2015). Look for Wilkerson, a free agent, to remain in New York next season, either by way of the franchise tag or a long-term deal. He earned a big payday after 12 sacks in 2015, and Williams should improve after his rookie year.
In the secondary, Revis is not the same player he was in his first New York stint, but reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. He still finished sixth in success rate among cornerbacks, according to charting from Sports Info Solutions. Cromartie is more prone to allowing big plays, but the Jets could target a free-agent safety like Eric Weddle, who played with Cromartie in San Diego. Strong safety Calvin Pryor was a first-round pick in 2014 and noticeably improved his game in Year 2.
With the league's best defensive line and expected improvement from young players in Bowles' second season, it is realistic to imagine the Jets challenging in a top-heavy AFC. They can pressure the likes of Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger in the big games, just as Denver did this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs were written off at 1-5 in mid-October, but then an 11-game winning streak finally gave the team its first playoff win since the 1993 season. The season-ending loss in New England was a flat performance, but consider that Kansas City's best wide receiver (Jeremy Maclin) was severely limited by injury, the defense's best player (Justin Houston) managed only eight snaps because of injury and the team's best running back down the stretch (Spencer Ware) was unable to contribute on offense that day.
When healthy, the Chiefs have one of the most talented rosters in the league and would be the favorites in the AFC West next season should Denver regress. Maclin was a fine addition, Jamaal Charles should be back for 2016 and Travis Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the league.
Everyone knows about the limiting factors of conservative quarterback Alex Smith -- Football Outsiders even named a stat (air less expected, or ALEX) after him to show how often quarterbacks throw the ball short of the sticks on third down. But the Chiefs still have managed two long winning streaks (started 9-0 in 2013) and two trips to the playoffs with him at quarterback, thanks to playing great defense and his ability to avoid turnovers.
How do you fare better against the Patriots next time? Well, the Chiefs did embarrass them in a 41-14 win in 2014. The loss this January was a tall task with Houston so limited. When healthy, he can play up to that Von Miller-level of disruption as he led the NFL with 22 sacks in 2014. Tamba Hali had a bounce-back year, and should the free agent not return, the Chiefs have planned for the future with the first-round selection of Dee Ford (2014), who got his feet wet with 4.0 sacks.
The secondary is where the Chiefs struggled early last season, but the return of Sean Smith from suspension was a huge part of the turnaround. Eric Berry, in his return from cancer, got stronger as the season progressed. The Chiefs must find a way to bring both of these free agents back next season. One contract they do not have to worry about for a while is cornerback Marcus Peters, a first-round pick who won Defensive Rookie of the Year with eight interceptions. While he was picked on a lot -- SIS charting has Peters with 119 targets, 23 more than the next cornerback -- he made a lot of plays and ranked 12th in coverage success rate.
The ability to get pressure with minimal blitzing while having strong ball skills in the secondary is exactly what worked so well for Denver this postseason. The Chiefs can do that if they can bring back the roster with better health and experience on their side.
Minnesota Vikings
A huge part of what made the Broncos such a great defense was that they led the league in pressure rate (34.7 percent). Coincidentally, the Vikings (30.7 percent), Jets (29.8 percent) and Chiefs (29.7 percent) all ranked in the top six this season, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Many considered the Vikings a dark-horse contender for 2016, but they showed up a year ahead of schedule after leapfrogging the Packers in the NFC North. Minnesota lost in Denver and Arizona by the slimmest of margins this season, and should have defeated Seattle with a 27-yard field goal in the playoffs. Unlike the Jets and Chiefs, the Vikings don't have to worry about signing any of their free agents to huge contracts. Linebacker Chad Greenway could return on a team-friendly deal.
Coach Mike Zimmer basically walked into this job with a "play great defense, minimize the quarterback" approach in 2014. Minnesota had multiple first-round picks in each year from 2012 to '14, and is hoping to have several defensive starters just hitting their prime in 2016.
Sharrif Floyd provides a good interior presence with run-stopper Linval Joseph. The Vikings paid Everson Griffen handsomely in 2014, and he has responded with 22.5 sacks under Zimmer.Anthony Barr, a first-round pick in 2014, has quickly turned into a complete linebacker. The Vikings will look for Eric Kendricks to make a similar leap in his second season.
Safety Harrison Smith, a first-round pick in 2012, made his first Pro Bowl this season. Xavier Rhodes, another first-round pick, has stepped up as the team's No. 1 cornerback. At the other corner, they could do better than veteran Terence Newman, who allowed 8.8 yards per pass according to SIS charting, but that is why the Vikings drafted Trae Waynes 11th overall last year. Waynes looked lost at times, but rookie corners are notoriously shaky, and he allowed only 4.2 yards per pass on 20 charted targets. Getting another safety to match up with Smith could be a free-agent priority or another early draft pick this year. But the vast majority of the right pieces are already there on defense.
Zimmer's job is really to get a bit more out of the offense. Teddy Bridgewater was supposed to take big steps forward in 2015 with Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace and a healthy Kyle Rudolpharound him. Instead, the leading receiver was fifth-round rookie Stefon Diggs, and Bridgewater made baby steps in his progression.
The offense needs to be a little more explosive, but the defense will keep games competitive with contenders such as Carolina, Seattle and Green Bay. We spent much of the season explaining why Minnesota was winning despite its mediocre stats at Football Outsiders, but Minnesota's success was never more inconceivable than Denver's in spite of how imbalanced that team was.
A one-dimensional team can still win a championship, but that one dimension has to be great. These three defenses are unlikely to reach the level of Denver's defense by 2016, but they have been heading down that rarely traveled path to success without overwhelming play from the quarterback position.
If Manning can walk a mile in Dilfer's cleats, what is stopping Fitzpatrick, Smith and Bridgewater?
A huge part of what made the Broncos such a great defense was that they led the league in pressure rate (34.7 percent). Coincidentally, the Vikings (30.7 percent), Jets (29.8 percent) and Chiefs (29.7 percent) all ranked in the top six this season, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Many considered the Vikings a dark-horse contender for 2016, but they showed up a year ahead of schedule after leapfrogging the Packers in the NFC North. Minnesota lost in Denver and Arizona by the slimmest of margins this season, and should have defeated Seattle with a 27-yard field goal in the playoffs. Unlike the Jets and Chiefs, the Vikings don't have to worry about signing any of their free agents to huge contracts. Linebacker Chad Greenway could return on a team-friendly deal.
Coach Mike Zimmer basically walked into this job with a "play great defense, minimize the quarterback" approach in 2014. Minnesota had multiple first-round picks in each year from 2012 to '14, and is hoping to have several defensive starters just hitting their prime in 2016.
Sharrif Floyd provides a good interior presence with run-stopper Linval Joseph. The Vikings paid Everson Griffen handsomely in 2014, and he has responded with 22.5 sacks under Zimmer.Anthony Barr, a first-round pick in 2014, has quickly turned into a complete linebacker. The Vikings will look for Eric Kendricks to make a similar leap in his second season.
Safety Harrison Smith, a first-round pick in 2012, made his first Pro Bowl this season. Xavier Rhodes, another first-round pick, has stepped up as the team's No. 1 cornerback. At the other corner, they could do better than veteran Terence Newman, who allowed 8.8 yards per pass according to SIS charting, but that is why the Vikings drafted Trae Waynes 11th overall last year. Waynes looked lost at times, but rookie corners are notoriously shaky, and he allowed only 4.2 yards per pass on 20 charted targets. Getting another safety to match up with Smith could be a free-agent priority or another early draft pick this year. But the vast majority of the right pieces are already there on defense.
Zimmer's job is really to get a bit more out of the offense. Teddy Bridgewater was supposed to take big steps forward in 2015 with Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace and a healthy Kyle Rudolpharound him. Instead, the leading receiver was fifth-round rookie Stefon Diggs, and Bridgewater made baby steps in his progression.
The offense needs to be a little more explosive, but the defense will keep games competitive with contenders such as Carolina, Seattle and Green Bay. We spent much of the season explaining why Minnesota was winning despite its mediocre stats at Football Outsiders, but Minnesota's success was never more inconceivable than Denver's in spite of how imbalanced that team was.
A one-dimensional team can still win a championship, but that one dimension has to be great. These three defenses are unlikely to reach the level of Denver's defense by 2016, but they have been heading down that rarely traveled path to success without overwhelming play from the quarterback position.
If Manning can walk a mile in Dilfer's cleats, what is stopping Fitzpatrick, Smith and Bridgewater?
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Ten big trades we'd like to see before the NBA deadline
When the trade deadline (Thursday, 3 p.m. ET) forces teams to act, things start happening. And we have some ideas about what should happen.
ESPN Insiders Tom Haberstroh, Chad Ford, David Thorpe, Bradford Doolittle and Kevin Pelton present 10 trades they would like to see, involving seven All-Stars and 15 teams, including five title contenders.
The Cleveland-Boston-New York megadeal
Cleveland Cavaliers send: Kevin Love to Boston
Boston Celtics send: Jae Crowder, Brooklyn's 2016 first-round pick and David Lee to New York
New York Knicks send: Carmelo Anthony to Cleveland and Lance Thomas to Boston
View in ESPN's trade machine
Tom Haberstroh: Who's happiest about this trade? LeBron gets to play with his buddy Carmelo Anthony. Boston gets its star in Love. And the Knicks can realistically dream about a Ben Simmons-Kristaps Porzingis frontcourt.
The Knicks would have to convince Anthony (and wife La La) to waive his no-trade clause and leave the Big Apple, but the carrot of playing for a championship with his pal LeBron James would probably be enough to ease those concerns.
Love would again become the No. 1 option he deserves to be and play for a coach who recognizes his talents. The Celtics would have the defensive muscle out on the perimeter to help mask Love's issues in the pick-and-roll.
The Knicks could rebuild around Porzingis and the Nets' pick. In this draft, that's one of the most valuable trade chips in the game. Crowder is a hard-nosed stud who would fit in the triangle and give them a quality player in return. Icing on the cake: Lee comes home to New York.
Toronto's title-contending push
Atlanta Hawks send: Al Horford and Kent Bazemore
Toronto Raptors send: James Johnson, Lucas Nogueira, Patrick Patterson and the lesser of the 2016 first-round picks belonging to Denver and New York
View trade in ESPN's trade machine
Kevin Pelton: Maybe they put Raptors Kool-Aid in the water in Toronto, but with Kyle Lowry about to turn 30, this could be their best chance to get to the NBA Finals, and Horford could be the missing piece. To match salaries, the Raptors would probably have to offer Patterson's excellent contract and could add the extra first-round pick they have coming, likely to be a top-10 selection.
Given all that value, the Hawks would also have to surrender Bazemore, who's likely to be overpaid this summer anyway. Toronto would immediately become the East's most versatile team, capable of playing big with Horford alongside Jonas Valanciunas or going small with Horford and a healthy DeMarre Carroll.
Houston starts over, Boston vaults ahead
Houston Rockets send: James Harden, Dwight Howard, Marcus Thornton and Jason Terry
Boston Celtics send: Nets' 2016 first-round pick, Isaiah Thomas, Kelly Olynyk, Avery Bradley and David Lee
View in ESPN's trade machine
Chad Ford: The Rockets are currently out of the playoffs and the chemistry is awful. As Kevin Pelton pointed out this week, it's Harden who seems to be the biggest problem, thanks to his matador-style defense.
With this trade, GM Daryl Morey would grab a bunch of assets from his friend Danny Ainge, sell Rockets fans on a quick rebuild and hope he can land Simmons in the draft.
Whomever the Rockets get in the draft would make them younger, along with Thomas, Olynyk and Bradley and their own talented young core headlined by Clint Capela. Meanwhile, the trade might not make the Rockets any worse for this season -- what they'd lose in star power they'd gain in chemistry.
For Boston, Danny Ainge has been looking to cash in his collection of assets for a superstar. Here he would land one plus a center who still can perform at an All-Star level.
Of course, the move would be risky for the Celtics after seeing what's happened in Houston, but Ainge has something the Rockets don't: coach Brad Stevens.
In this deal, the Celtics would be keeping contributors like Marcus Smart, Crowder and Amir Johnson to supply defensive toughness. And by hanging on to several first-round picks and young players like James Young, Terry Rozier, R.J. Hunter and Jordan Mickey, the Celtics wouldn't be giving away the farm to have a legit shot at the NBA Finals in the next couple of years.
Melo to the Lakers
New York Knicks send: Carmelo Anthony
Los Angeles Lakers send: D'Angelo Russell and Roy Hibbert
View in ESPN's trade machine
Ford: Melo's trade value won't get any higher than it is right now. With the arrival of Porzingis, Anthony is no longer the fan favorite he once was, giving the Knicks a trade window. The Lakers are one of the very few destinations that I think Melo would waive his no-trade clause for, especially if L.A. is promising to go all-out to build a contender next year.
Russell was the No. 2 pick in the draft last year, a 19-year-old scorer and playmaker who has shown improvement all season. Putting him next to Porzingis would give the Knicks two terrific young players to build around. While some fans might not feel like it's enough for Melo, this kind of move is the best long-term course of action for the Knicks. (I proposed a similar deal in December that would net Justise Winslow of the Heat for Melo.)
For the Lakers, it's a way to rebuild almost instantly rather than wait to see how the pingpong balls bounce. Add Melo, and L.A. suddenly becomes a much more attractive free-agent destination this summer.
Griffin-Millsap swap
Los Angeles Clippers send: Blake Griffin
Atlanta Hawks send: Paul Millsap and Mike Scott
View in ESPN's trade machine
Bradford Doolittle: Even when fully healthy, the Clippers as constituted are unlikely to survive a playoff gauntlet involving the three teams ahead of them in the West: the Warriors, Spurs and Thunder.
Right now, Millsap is a better fit for the Clippers and maybe a better player than Griffin. He would give them better range at the 4 and enhanced ability to match up with Golden State down the line. Given the four-year age difference, the Hawks would need to add a sweetener, and Mike Scott would provide depth, shooting and experience for the Clippers' playoff run.
Meanwhile, Griffin would provide Atlanta a younger star to pair with Dennis Schroder and Kent Bazemore going forward. And the Hawks could still package Jeff Teague and Al Horford for more young players to fill out their revamped core, such as a combination of guys from the Celtics.
Melo teaming up with Dirk
New York Knicks send: Carmelo Anthony
Dallas Mavericks send: Chandler Parsons, Raymond Felton, Dwight Powell and picks in the next two drafts
View in ESPN's trade machine
David Thorpe: Seeing Carmelo in the playoffs is just something the basketball gods would want. Seeing him under master guru Rick Carlisle would be even more special. If anyone can best utilize his still-considerable skill set, it's Carlisle and the Mavs.
Parsons would be a good fit with the Knicks' style of play and the bright lights of New York. The draft picks could be very valuable, Powell has the potential to be a solid player and the cap space the Knicks would gain in this trade would make them strong contenders to bring in elite talent.
Brooklyn starts the rebuild
Brooklyn Nets send: Thaddeus Young
Toronto Raptors send: Patrick Patterson, Delon Wright and a 2016 first-round draft pick
View in ESPN's trade machine
Doolittle: While in theory I don't think Brooklyn should make any deals without a permanent GM in place, I think this is one that the new guy would want to make anyway. In any case, the Nets' best strategy is to move their best players now for multiple pieces to help them rebuild.
In Patterson and Wright, they would receive two former first-rounders who could get big minutes the next couple of years as things get sorted out. Toronto would want to get this deal done with their own first-round pick (in the No. 25 range), but the Nets might insist on the lottery pick the Raptors are holding (the lesser of the Nuggets' and Knicks' first-round picks).
As for the Raptors, they need to upgrade the 4 to really mount a challenge to Cleveland. Young would be perfectly cast as the fourth-best player on a contending team.
Breaking up the Hawks and Rockets
Atlanta Hawks send: Al Horford, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver to Houston; Thabo Sefolosha to Minnesota
Houston Rockets send: Dwight Howard to Atlanta; Patrick Beverley, KJ McDaniels and Donatas Motiejunas to Minnesota
Minnesota Timberwolves send: Ricky Rubio to Atlanta
View in ESPN's trade machine
Thorpe: It's time to break up the Howard and Harden show, so sending Dwight home to a fan base that loves him is fair to a man who has had his "rep" beaten up more than he deserves.
Rubio is a poor scorer and shooter but would help the Hawks enormously with his passing and defense, and he is especially suited to working with post players. Dwight's offense would grow next to Rubio and Paul Millsap, and he would make those two better players as well.
SportsCenter's Trade Machine: Dwight Howard
Tom Penn explains what moves the Hawks and the Celtics would have to make to afford to trade for Dwight Howard.
SportsCenter's Trade Machine: Dwight Howard
In Houston, Horford would play power forward alongside Clint Capela, which would be better for both men, and he would bring leadership skills the Rockets sorely need. Teague is a shooter and penetrator who is better playing without the ball than Ty Lawson has been, making him more suited to play with Harden. The Rockets could finish games with Teague, Harden, Korver, Ariza and Horford -- five 3-point shooters and no one for opponents to hack.
Minnesota would get multiple talented players at a good value, including perimeter defense, with Beverley holding down the starting spot until the Wolves can bring in another point guard. McDaniels would add to their arsenal of athletes with significant upside, and maybe Motiejunas finds his mojo and gives the Wolves their scoring power forward to complement Karl-Anthony Towns.
Utah gets its point guard
New Orleans Pelicans send: Jrue Holiday and Norris Cole
Utah Jazz send: Trey Burke, Alec Burks and the Jazz's 2016 second-round pick
View in ESPN's trade machine
Pelton: With Marc Gasol's injury leaving the Memphis Grizzlies vulnerable, the Jazz are consistent PG play away from realistically getting as high as fifth in the West. Unless George Hill is available, I like Holiday best of the potential fits. His size, defense and shooting allow him to upgrade the position this year without blocking Dante Exum, since the two could potentially play together.
With Tyreke Evans out for the season -- and maybe not a part of New Orleans' long-term plans -- the Pelicans get Burks to replace Evans' ability to create off the dribble, improve their guard depth and save some money.
Reuniting the Morris twins
Phoenix Suns send: Markieff Morris and Jon Leuer
Detroit Pistons send: Brandon Jennings
View in ESPN's trade machine
Haberstroh: The team most willing (or least averse?) to take on Markieff's contract might be in Detroit, where he would reunite with his brother. As I pointed out in the fall, Markieff is near All-Star level when he plays with his brother.
Stan Van Gundy waived Josh Smith, so he's shown he's willing to cut bait on a disruptive talent. But if you're in a non-destination like Detroit, you usually have to acquire talent through trades. In this trade, for taking on Morris' contract, Van Gundy would receive another stretch-4 in Leuer for his four-out system.
The Suns could do this deal to wipe their hands clean of the Markieff situation and start fresh with Jennings, whose contract expires this summer. Even if Jennings leaves, the Suns would be happy to move on from the Morris Brothers era.
Atlanta Hawks send: Al Horford, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver to Houston; Thabo Sefolosha to Minnesota
Houston Rockets send: Dwight Howard to Atlanta; Patrick Beverley, KJ McDaniels and Donatas Motiejunas to Minnesota
Minnesota Timberwolves send: Ricky Rubio to Atlanta
View in ESPN's trade machine
Thorpe: It's time to break up the Howard and Harden show, so sending Dwight home to a fan base that loves him is fair to a man who has had his "rep" beaten up more than he deserves.
Rubio is a poor scorer and shooter but would help the Hawks enormously with his passing and defense, and he is especially suited to working with post players. Dwight's offense would grow next to Rubio and Paul Millsap, and he would make those two better players as well.
SportsCenter's Trade Machine: Dwight Howard
Tom Penn explains what moves the Hawks and the Celtics would have to make to afford to trade for Dwight Howard.
SportsCenter's Trade Machine: Dwight Howard
In Houston, Horford would play power forward alongside Clint Capela, which would be better for both men, and he would bring leadership skills the Rockets sorely need. Teague is a shooter and penetrator who is better playing without the ball than Ty Lawson has been, making him more suited to play with Harden. The Rockets could finish games with Teague, Harden, Korver, Ariza and Horford -- five 3-point shooters and no one for opponents to hack.
Minnesota would get multiple talented players at a good value, including perimeter defense, with Beverley holding down the starting spot until the Wolves can bring in another point guard. McDaniels would add to their arsenal of athletes with significant upside, and maybe Motiejunas finds his mojo and gives the Wolves their scoring power forward to complement Karl-Anthony Towns.
Utah gets its point guard
New Orleans Pelicans send: Jrue Holiday and Norris Cole
Utah Jazz send: Trey Burke, Alec Burks and the Jazz's 2016 second-round pick
View in ESPN's trade machine
Pelton: With Marc Gasol's injury leaving the Memphis Grizzlies vulnerable, the Jazz are consistent PG play away from realistically getting as high as fifth in the West. Unless George Hill is available, I like Holiday best of the potential fits. His size, defense and shooting allow him to upgrade the position this year without blocking Dante Exum, since the two could potentially play together.
With Tyreke Evans out for the season -- and maybe not a part of New Orleans' long-term plans -- the Pelicans get Burks to replace Evans' ability to create off the dribble, improve their guard depth and save some money.
Reuniting the Morris twins
Phoenix Suns send: Markieff Morris and Jon Leuer
Detroit Pistons send: Brandon Jennings
View in ESPN's trade machine
Haberstroh: The team most willing (or least averse?) to take on Markieff's contract might be in Detroit, where he would reunite with his brother. As I pointed out in the fall, Markieff is near All-Star level when he plays with his brother.
Stan Van Gundy waived Josh Smith, so he's shown he's willing to cut bait on a disruptive talent. But if you're in a non-destination like Detroit, you usually have to acquire talent through trades. In this trade, for taking on Morris' contract, Van Gundy would receive another stretch-4 in Leuer for his four-out system.
The Suns could do this deal to wipe their hands clean of the Markieff situation and start fresh with Jennings, whose contract expires this summer. Even if Jennings leaves, the Suns would be happy to move on from the Morris Brothers era.
TrillCauleyStein
Banned
Trade value rankings: NBA's 50 most valuable
skooby please G.
skooby please G.
TrillCauleyStein
Banned
Trade Grades: Does Tobias Harris boost Detroit to playoffs?
skooby please breh
skooby please breh
Trade Grades: Will Tobias Harris boost Detroit into the playoffs?
The Deal
Pistons get: Forward Tobias Harris
Magic get: Guard Brandon Jennings, forward Ersan Ilyasova
Detroit Pistons: A
I've admittedly never been the biggest Harris believer. About this time a year ago, he appeared on my list of RPM mirages -- players whose box-score stats overstated their real value, as indicated by ESPN's real plus-minus.
At the same time, I don't think Harris has ever been in position to succeed in Orlando. The Magic's options have either been to play him at small forward, where Harris has a difficult time chasing quicker athletes around the perimeter, or use him at power forward next to a weak defensive center (either Nikola Vucevic or Channing Frye).
By contrast, Detroit looks like a more ideal fit for Harris' skills. He'll slide into Ilyasova's spot in the starting lineup next to Andre Drummond, an elite defensive rebounder who can cover for Harris' weakness in this regard. (Per NBA.com/Stats lineup data, Orlando rebounded just 73.9 percent of opponents' misses with Harris at power forward, which would rank 28th in the NBA, as compared to an outstanding 79 percent when he played small forward, good for third-best.)
A Pistons forward trio of Harris, starting small forward Marcus Morris and rookie Stanley Johnson looks built for the 2016 NBA. Any of the three players could defend either small forwards or power forwards depending on matchups, enabling Stan Van Gundy to hide Harris defensively.
Detroit will also have flexibility to interchange its forwards' assignments at the offensive end. While Harris isn't the perimeter threat that Ilyasova is, having hit 31.1 percent of his 3-pointers this season (down from 36.4 percent in 2014-15, but similar to his 31.8 percent career mark), he's still an above-average outside shooter for a power forward and both he and Morris have the ability to isolate against bigger, slower defenders.
In the short term, I don't think this move helps the Pistons' playoff chances, and it might hurt them if they can't find a replacement for Jennings as a backup to Reggie Jackson. Detroit's much-maligned all-reserve units have actually played pretty well with Jennings, while the Pistons' starting five has slumped. Per NBA.com/Stats, Detroit has actually been 6.1 points better per 100 possessions with Jennings on the court since his return from a ruptured Achilles.
Fittingly, the Pistons have been an identical 6.1 points worse in terms of net rating with veteran Steve Blake at the point. So Detroit could use an upgrade. Someone like former Pistons backupD.J. Augustin on an expiring contract might be able to better fill Jennings' role.
Still, this trade isn't about the remainder of the 2015-16 season so much as preparing for 2016-17 and beyond. After deciding to wait to extend the contract of All-Star center Andre Drummond, the Pistons could have had nearly $20 million in cap space even if they retained Ilyasova (whose 2016-17 salary is guaranteed for just $400,000).
Essentially, trading Jennings' expiring contract means using that cap space five months early. It's hard to imagine Detroit could have gotten better value this summer.
Not only is Harris far younger than the unrestricted free agents who would be available to the Pistons at age 23; his four-year, $64 million deal looks terrific in the context of the rising cap -- which could grow to beyond $90 million, according to internal team projections shared by ESPN's Zach Lowe.
Using the same method outlined in today's piece estimating trade value, Harris' projection is valued at about $50 million over the next three years -- better than the $48 million he's owed, and that's not factoring in the possibility of the cap exceeding the NBA's projections.
Detroit now has a six-player core under contract -- the five current starters and Johnson, likely to eventually start at small forward. None are older than 26, and four of the five -- all but Drummond (sure to re-sign for the max this summer) and shooting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (eligible for an extension next fall) -- are under contract through 2018-19.
Since Van Gundy inherited Drummond, there's been plenty of talk about him trying to build a team similar to the Magic squad he led to an NBA Finals appearance in 2009. Now, Van Gundy's old team has helped him with perhaps the last major missing piece.
Orlando Magic: D+
On the other side, it's a little difficult to judge the Magic's thinking until we know how this trade fits into the bigger picture. Surely, Orlando has more moves coming between now and the deadline.
To some extent, Ilyasova duplicates the skills of Magic reserve forward/center Channing Frye, who could be dealt by Thursday. Perhaps Ilyasova himself will be on the move again.
That noted, it's hard to see how this swap gets Orlando much closer to achieving goals in the long term or even simply trying to make the playoffs this season.
Yes, the Harris-Vucevic frontcourt was unworkable -- it had been outscored by 10.9 points per 100 possessions this season, according to NBA.com/Stats. But Scott Skiles' endless lineup tinkering seemed to have hit on something with Harris playing small forward next to Aaron Gordon, an interchangeable lineup along the lines of what the Pistons envision. Paired with Vucevic, that duo had posted a plus-0.6 net rating in 302 minutes of action.
I also hope that the Magic don't view Jennings as a long-term solution at point guard rather than an expiring contract. As well as Detroit played with him on the court, and as healthy as he's looked, Jennings hasn't been the same player coming off a ruptured Achilles -- as is typical of one of the most devastating injuries an NBA player can suffer.
His usage rate is way down from its pre-injury heights, and because Jennings is making just 31 percent of his 3-point attempts, he hasn't enjoyed a corresponding boost in efficiency. As a result, he's rated as a below-average point guard this season.
Whether or not Ilyasova returns, Orlando now has the opportunity to clear max-level cap space this summer. But it's hard to see the Magic legitimately competing for the best players on the market as a lottery team with an ill-defined core. Below that top talent, there's a steep drop-off to a second tier of players likely to get overpaid because there's simply more money to go around than talent. I'd rather have Harris.
TrillCauleyStein
Banned
Trade value rankings: NBA's 50 most valuable
this one too
this one too
Ranking Curry, LeBron, Harden and top 50 NBA players by trade value
How do we determine a player's actual trade value? More to the point, how do we figure out which NBA stars have the most?
Who has more: Kevin Love or Blake Griffin? James Harden or DeMarcus Cousins? Steph Curry, Anthony Davis or LeBron James?
There are at least two ways to solve this: an objective statistical approach, and a more subjective approach. Several years ago I began working on the more objective approach, inspired by the subjective approach that was a popular ESPN staple.
A player's projected net value, in my statistical model, is the difference between the dollar value of his production and salary. In the past, I've used a similar measure to rank the league's best contracts over the next three years (the period covered by my SCHOENE projection system).
For example, Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry has been the most valuable player in the league by any measure. I estimate his production this year as worth about $36 million -- far more than the maximum salary. But Curry isn't making the max; he's actually paid $11.4 million. The $25 million in net value he's created makes him easily the NBA's best value this season. Nobody else has provided even $20 million in net value.
I also factored in the opportunity to underpay players on future contracts, assuming they would sign for their value or the maximum contract.
However, statistical projections can't capture factors like the off-court financial benefits of stars and players who are more valuable to their current team. And, of course, teams don't all evaluate players the same way. To account for these other factors, we asked the #NBArank panel, using the wisdom of the crowd, to rank players by their trade value.
The final rankings combine one part statistical projection and two parts #NBArank panel voting, and I've listed both factors for the top 50 players in the league.
1. Stephen Curry
Golden State Warriors
Experience: 6 years
Net value: $107 million (No. 3)
#NBArank panel: No. 1
The reigning MVP and consensus best player in the league also has one of the best contracts. Curry signed an extension before he went from an injury question mark to the best shooter in NBA history, and he has still got one more season left at $12.1 million before becoming an unrestricted free agent.
The only reason he doesn't rank first by the statistical method is that Curry's salary could subsequently skyrocket to nearly $30 million.
2. Anthony Davis
New Orleans Pelicans
Experience: 3 years
Net value: $125 million (No. 1)
#NBArank panel: No. 5
Despite taking a step backwards in his development this season -- in part because of the injuries that have riddled the New Orleans backcourt -- Davis is still poised to become perhaps the league's best player over the next three years (he's projected as such). Remember, he won't turn 23 until next month and was getting MVP buzz before the season.
However, his top spot in the statistical projections does come with an asterisk -- I'm projecting here that Davis won't make one of this season's All-NBA teams, pegging the contract extension he signed last summer at an estimated $120 million over five years. If Davis makes All-NBA, his contract jumps to an estimated $144 million thanks to the so-called "Derrick Rose rule". In that case, Davis would drop to second.
3. Kawhi Leonard
San Antonio Spurs
Experience: 4 years
Net value: $115 million (No. 2)
#NBArank panel: No. 2
The numbers and voters agreed that Leonard was the second-best value, but because Curry had a wide edge in the voting and Davis a wide edge in the statistical projections, Leonard slips to third when they're combined. His production is projected fifth in the league over the next three-plus seasons, and Leonard is locked in at what will be bargain rates through at least 2019.
4. Russell Westbrook
Oklahoma City Thunder
Experience: 8 years
Net value: $102 million (No. 4)
#NBArank panel: No. 4
The league's second-best player this season after Curry by ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) and my wins above replacement player (WARP) statistic, Westbrook has surpassed 2013-14 MVP Kevin Durant as the brightest star in Oklahoma City. Westbrook also has a more favorable contract than Durant and LeBron James, who can both become free agents this summer and cash in on the rising cap.
Westbrook has one more year left at $17.8 million -- less than a million more than teammate Enes Kanter.
5. Draymond Green
Golden State Warriors
Experience: 3 years
Net value: $97 million (No. 6)
#NBArank panel: No. 8
Remember those debates last season about whether Green was a max player? He has put those to rest by emerging as a triple-double machine and one of the league's 10 best players. And remarkably, Green isn't making the maximum salary, having accepted about $10 million less over the life of his five-year contract than he could have made. Green's deal tops out at $18.5 million in 2019-20.
6. Karl-Anthony Towns
Minnesota Timberwolves
Experience: Rookie
Net value: $90 million (No. 7)
#NBArank panel: No. 7
Less than four months into his NBA career, Towns is already a top-10 value. He has put together one of the best seasons ever by a 20-year-old player in terms of box-score stats, surpassing what Davis did as a rookie. And Towns has three full years left on his rookie contract, which will pay him less total over that span ($20 million) than Joe Johnson is making this season ($24.9 million).
7. LeBron James
Cleveland Cavaliers
Experience: 13 years
Net value: $69 million (No. 12)
#NBArank panel: No. 3
James' production is projected fourth over the next three-plus seasons, behind Davis, Curry and Westbrook. The King drops this far because he stands to make the most money of anyone in the NBA over that span. That does reveal a limitation of the statistical method, which assumes teams can spend the extra money elsewhere.
Since Cleveland will be over the salary cap for the foreseeable future, James' salary matters primarily to Dan Gilbert's pocketbook. So voters put James in a three-way tie for third with the Thunder's stars.
8. Kevin Durant
Oklahoma City Thunder
Experience: 9 years
Net value: $61 million (No. 17)
#NBArank panel: No. 6
Durant has a chance to make more than anyone besides James over the next three years if he chooses to sign a one-year contract this summer and re-enter free agency in the summer of 2017, when he'd be eligible for the higher 10-year maximum salary pending a renegotiation of the NBA's collective bargaining agreement.
Since SCHOENE also sees Durant as being at the high point of his production, his statistical projection is relatively low. Our #NBArank panel resoundingly disagrees.
9. Kristaps Porzingis
New York Knicks
Experience: Rookie
Net value: $73 million (No. 8)
#NBArank panel: No. 9
By RPM, it's Porzingis and not Towns who has been the league's best rookie. Only 20 and still adjusting to the NBA, Porzingis has plenty of room for growth. If he adds strength and moves to center on a full-time basis, Porzingis could be a matchup nightmare sooner rather than later.
10. James Harden
Houston Rockets
Experience: 6 years
Net value: $98 million (No. 5)
#NBArank panel: No. 17
Harden was the runner-up for MVP last season and has two years left on his contract at a combined $34.6 million, making him a terrific bargain. Yet our voters aren't feeling as positive about Harden, surely because of the defensive deficiencies I highlighted in arguing last week that the Rockets should consider trading their best player.
11. John Wall
Washington Wizards
Experience: 5 years
Net value: $71 million (No. 9)
#NBArank panel: No. 10
Over the summer, Wall famously noted that Detroit Pistons point guard Reggie Jackson got nearly the same contract as Wall's five-year, $85 million extension that kicked in last season. Wall was a victim of bad timing, and the Wizards will benefit with a below-market deal.
12. DeMarcus Cousins
Sacramento Kings
Experience: 5 years
Net value: $69 million (No. 10)
#NBArank panel: No. 14
Because of his temper and inconsistent effort on the court and his rocky relationships in the locker room, Cousins is the best player who might realistically hit the trade block any time soon. The Kings have resisted such a move because Cousins can be a one-man wrecking crew when he's fully engaged.
His contract, which pays $35 million over the next two seasons, is also one of the league's best.
13. Jimmy Butler
Chicago Bulls
Experience: 4 years
Net value: $63 million (No. 14)
#NBArank panel: No. 12
Like Leonard, Butler locked into a max contract last summer that won't allow him back on the market until the summer of 2019 at the earliest. Butler won't make more than $20 million per season over the life of the contract, making his deal an excellent one as the cap rises.
14. Paul George
Indiana Pacers
Experience: 5 years
Net value: $64 million (No. 13)
#NBArank panel: No. 13
George and Butler, both two-way wings who are 25 and 26, respectively, have virtually identical statistical profiles. While the projections give a slight edge to George, voters leaned in Butler's direction.
15. Kyrie Irving
Cleveland Cavaliers
Experience: 4 years
Net value: $28 million (No. 36)
#NBArank panel: No. 11
The injuries Irving has suffered -- most notably the fractured patella that forced him to miss the start of the 2015-16 season -- limit his statistical projections. Our #NBArank panel wasn't deterred, ranking Irving 11th in trade value on the strength of his ability to develop at age 23 and a max extension that locked him in through 2019.
16. Chris Paul
Los Angeles Clippers
Experience: 10 years
Net value: $49 million (No. 24)
#NBArank panel: No. 18
Along with James, Paul is the other player in the top 20 in his 30s (he'll turn 31 in May). He has demonstrated during Blake Griffin's absence that he can still carry a team as well as ever, though the time is coming when Paul's game will start to gradually erode.
17. Rudy Gobert
Utah Jazz
Experience: 2 years
Net value: $69 million (No. 10)
#NBArank panel: No. 22
The lowest-paid elite player in the league because he was drafted 27th overall and is still on his rookie contract, Gobert is making less money this season than 14 players who are getting paid by teams that waived them, including four Philadelphia 76ers (Furkan Aldemir, JaVale McGee, Gerald Wallace and Tony Wroten).
18. Klay Thompson
Golden State Warriors
Experience: 4 years
Net value: $17 million (No. 47)
#NBArank panel: No. 16
To some extent, Thompson's production is the result of playing next to Curry, which would make him less valuable to another team. But Thompson's shooting and ability to defend point guards is also the perfect complement to Curry's skills. From the Warriors' perspective, the panel placing Thompson 13th makes sense.
19. Damian Lillard
Portland Trail Blazers
Experience: 3 years
Net value: $56 million (No. 20)
#NBArank panel: No. 23
While Lillard came into the league a four-year college player, he has continued to develop his game in the NBA and has room for further growth at age 25. He'll begin a five-year maximum extension next season.
20. Andre Drummond
Detroit Pistons
Experience: 3 years
Net value: $51 million (No. 22)
#NBArank panel: No. 24
Drummond doesn't quite rank in the top 20 by either method alone, but he's a solid compromise candidate because he's just outside both top 20s.
Drummond is making $3.2 million in the last year of his rookie contract. He's a certainty to sign a max deal next summer as a restricted free agent after making his All-Star debut on Sunday.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Experience: Rookie
Net value: $90 million (No. 7)
#NBArank panel: No. 7
Less than four months into his NBA career, Towns is already a top-10 value. He has put together one of the best seasons ever by a 20-year-old player in terms of box-score stats, surpassing what Davis did as a rookie. And Towns has three full years left on his rookie contract, which will pay him less total over that span ($20 million) than Joe Johnson is making this season ($24.9 million).
7. LeBron James
Cleveland Cavaliers
Experience: 13 years
Net value: $69 million (No. 12)
#NBArank panel: No. 3
James' production is projected fourth over the next three-plus seasons, behind Davis, Curry and Westbrook. The King drops this far because he stands to make the most money of anyone in the NBA over that span. That does reveal a limitation of the statistical method, which assumes teams can spend the extra money elsewhere.
Since Cleveland will be over the salary cap for the foreseeable future, James' salary matters primarily to Dan Gilbert's pocketbook. So voters put James in a three-way tie for third with the Thunder's stars.
8. Kevin Durant
Oklahoma City Thunder
Experience: 9 years
Net value: $61 million (No. 17)
#NBArank panel: No. 6
Durant has a chance to make more than anyone besides James over the next three years if he chooses to sign a one-year contract this summer and re-enter free agency in the summer of 2017, when he'd be eligible for the higher 10-year maximum salary pending a renegotiation of the NBA's collective bargaining agreement.
Since SCHOENE also sees Durant as being at the high point of his production, his statistical projection is relatively low. Our #NBArank panel resoundingly disagrees.
9. Kristaps Porzingis
New York Knicks
Experience: Rookie
Net value: $73 million (No. 8)
#NBArank panel: No. 9
By RPM, it's Porzingis and not Towns who has been the league's best rookie. Only 20 and still adjusting to the NBA, Porzingis has plenty of room for growth. If he adds strength and moves to center on a full-time basis, Porzingis could be a matchup nightmare sooner rather than later.
10. James Harden
Houston Rockets
Experience: 6 years
Net value: $98 million (No. 5)
#NBArank panel: No. 17
Harden was the runner-up for MVP last season and has two years left on his contract at a combined $34.6 million, making him a terrific bargain. Yet our voters aren't feeling as positive about Harden, surely because of the defensive deficiencies I highlighted in arguing last week that the Rockets should consider trading their best player.
11. John Wall
Washington Wizards
Experience: 5 years
Net value: $71 million (No. 9)
#NBArank panel: No. 10
Over the summer, Wall famously noted that Detroit Pistons point guard Reggie Jackson got nearly the same contract as Wall's five-year, $85 million extension that kicked in last season. Wall was a victim of bad timing, and the Wizards will benefit with a below-market deal.
12. DeMarcus Cousins
Sacramento Kings
Experience: 5 years
Net value: $69 million (No. 10)
#NBArank panel: No. 14
Because of his temper and inconsistent effort on the court and his rocky relationships in the locker room, Cousins is the best player who might realistically hit the trade block any time soon. The Kings have resisted such a move because Cousins can be a one-man wrecking crew when he's fully engaged.
His contract, which pays $35 million over the next two seasons, is also one of the league's best.
13. Jimmy Butler
Chicago Bulls
Experience: 4 years
Net value: $63 million (No. 14)
#NBArank panel: No. 12
Like Leonard, Butler locked into a max contract last summer that won't allow him back on the market until the summer of 2019 at the earliest. Butler won't make more than $20 million per season over the life of the contract, making his deal an excellent one as the cap rises.
14. Paul George
Indiana Pacers
Experience: 5 years
Net value: $64 million (No. 13)
#NBArank panel: No. 13
George and Butler, both two-way wings who are 25 and 26, respectively, have virtually identical statistical profiles. While the projections give a slight edge to George, voters leaned in Butler's direction.
15. Kyrie Irving
Cleveland Cavaliers
Experience: 4 years
Net value: $28 million (No. 36)
#NBArank panel: No. 11
The injuries Irving has suffered -- most notably the fractured patella that forced him to miss the start of the 2015-16 season -- limit his statistical projections. Our #NBArank panel wasn't deterred, ranking Irving 11th in trade value on the strength of his ability to develop at age 23 and a max extension that locked him in through 2019.
16. Chris Paul
Los Angeles Clippers
Experience: 10 years
Net value: $49 million (No. 24)
#NBArank panel: No. 18
Along with James, Paul is the other player in the top 20 in his 30s (he'll turn 31 in May). He has demonstrated during Blake Griffin's absence that he can still carry a team as well as ever, though the time is coming when Paul's game will start to gradually erode.
17. Rudy Gobert
Utah Jazz
Experience: 2 years
Net value: $69 million (No. 10)
#NBArank panel: No. 22
The lowest-paid elite player in the league because he was drafted 27th overall and is still on his rookie contract, Gobert is making less money this season than 14 players who are getting paid by teams that waived them, including four Philadelphia 76ers (Furkan Aldemir, JaVale McGee, Gerald Wallace and Tony Wroten).
18. Klay Thompson
Golden State Warriors
Experience: 4 years
Net value: $17 million (No. 47)
#NBArank panel: No. 16
To some extent, Thompson's production is the result of playing next to Curry, which would make him less valuable to another team. But Thompson's shooting and ability to defend point guards is also the perfect complement to Curry's skills. From the Warriors' perspective, the panel placing Thompson 13th makes sense.
19. Damian Lillard
Portland Trail Blazers
Experience: 3 years
Net value: $56 million (No. 20)
#NBArank panel: No. 23
While Lillard came into the league a four-year college player, he has continued to develop his game in the NBA and has room for further growth at age 25. He'll begin a five-year maximum extension next season.
20. Andre Drummond
Detroit Pistons
Experience: 3 years
Net value: $51 million (No. 22)
#NBArank panel: No. 24
Drummond doesn't quite rank in the top 20 by either method alone, but he's a solid compromise candidate because he's just outside both top 20s.
Drummond is making $3.2 million in the last year of his rookie contract. He's a certainty to sign a max deal next summer as a restricted free agent after making his All-Star debut on Sunday.
Nos. 21-25
21. Kyle Lowry (Projected surplus value: $48 million, Panel: No. 25)
22. Andrew Wiggins ($1 million, No. 15)
23. C.J. McCollum ($23 million, No. 19)
24. Isaiah Thomas ($50 million, No. 28)
25. Blake Griffin ($26 million, No. 21)
Wiggins might represent the biggest discrepancy between the two methods. Because of his poor RPM performance during his first two seasons, Wiggins' statistical projections are incredibly modest. But voters still see him as a future star based on his incredible scoring ability.
Nos. 26-30
26. DeAndre Jordan ($61 million, No. 32)
27. Myles Turner ($40 million, No. 29)
28. Nikola Jokic ($57 million, No. 36)
29. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($19 million, No. 26)
30. Derrick Favors ($42 million, No. 31)
Surely the most anonymous player on this list, Jokic was only the 41st pick in the 2014 draft. However, he has been one of the league's most productive rookies (he tops all first-year players in RPM) at age 20. Plus, Jokic will make less than the mid-level exception ($4.3 million total) over the next three years.
Nos. 31-35
31. LaMarcus Aldridge (minus-$1 million, No. 20)
32. Jae Crowder ($63 million, No. 47)
33. Devin Booker ($17 million, No. 27)
34. Kevin Love ($51 million, No. 41)
35. Eric Bledsoe ($59 million, No. 48)
Aldridge is another major point of disagreement. Though he was the prize of last summer's free agency and has helped the Spurs to the best start in franchise history, Aldridge's modest efficiency and poor RPM in 2015-16 suggest he won't live up to his contract over the next three years.
Voters still placed him 20th in their rankings, far ahead of cheaper, younger players such as Bledsoe and Crowder.
Nos. 36-40
36. Khris Middleton ($41 million, No. 39)
37. Marcus Smart ($33 million, No. 37)
38. Rodney Hood ($33 million, No. 38)
39. Serge Ibaka ($7 million, No. 30)
40. D'Angelo Russell ($24 million, No. 33)
A relatively slow start for Russell hasn't scared off the #NBArank panel, which voted him 33rd in trade value -- ahead of No. 3 overall pick Jahlil Okafor. The statistical projections generally concur with that assessment.
Nos. 41-45
41. Paul Millsap ($29 million, No. 46)
42. Clint Capela ($34 million, No. 49)
43. Al Horford ($13 million, No. 35)
44. Gordon Hayward ($18 million, No. 40)
45. Danilo Gallinari ($15 million, No. 42)
Given the recent report by ESPN's Kevin Arnovitz and Brian Windhorst that the Hawks are considering trading Horford before the deadline, the center is an interesting case. The impending free agent is likely to be fairly paid on the max contract he's sure to get next summer.
Nos. 46-50
46. Kemba Walker ($48 million, No. 62)
47. Robert Covington ($40 million, No. 59)
48. Jahlil Okafor ($minus-2 million, No. 34)
49. Aaron Gordon ($18 million, No. 50)
50. Marc Gasol ($7 million, No. 43)
A couple of Sixers present interesting cases here. Covington is the ultimate Sam Hinkie signing. A solid 3-and-D role player who can defend both forward spots, Covington will make the league minimum the next two seasons. Voters weren't as high on the merits of his cheap contract. Instead, they favored Okafor, whose horrendous RPM rating improbably leaves him with projected negative net value over his rookie contract.
21. Kyle Lowry (Projected surplus value: $48 million, Panel: No. 25)
22. Andrew Wiggins ($1 million, No. 15)
23. C.J. McCollum ($23 million, No. 19)
24. Isaiah Thomas ($50 million, No. 28)
25. Blake Griffin ($26 million, No. 21)
Wiggins might represent the biggest discrepancy between the two methods. Because of his poor RPM performance during his first two seasons, Wiggins' statistical projections are incredibly modest. But voters still see him as a future star based on his incredible scoring ability.
Nos. 26-30
26. DeAndre Jordan ($61 million, No. 32)
27. Myles Turner ($40 million, No. 29)
28. Nikola Jokic ($57 million, No. 36)
29. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($19 million, No. 26)
30. Derrick Favors ($42 million, No. 31)
Surely the most anonymous player on this list, Jokic was only the 41st pick in the 2014 draft. However, he has been one of the league's most productive rookies (he tops all first-year players in RPM) at age 20. Plus, Jokic will make less than the mid-level exception ($4.3 million total) over the next three years.
Nos. 31-35
31. LaMarcus Aldridge (minus-$1 million, No. 20)
32. Jae Crowder ($63 million, No. 47)
33. Devin Booker ($17 million, No. 27)
34. Kevin Love ($51 million, No. 41)
35. Eric Bledsoe ($59 million, No. 48)
Aldridge is another major point of disagreement. Though he was the prize of last summer's free agency and has helped the Spurs to the best start in franchise history, Aldridge's modest efficiency and poor RPM in 2015-16 suggest he won't live up to his contract over the next three years.
Voters still placed him 20th in their rankings, far ahead of cheaper, younger players such as Bledsoe and Crowder.
Nos. 36-40
36. Khris Middleton ($41 million, No. 39)
37. Marcus Smart ($33 million, No. 37)
38. Rodney Hood ($33 million, No. 38)
39. Serge Ibaka ($7 million, No. 30)
40. D'Angelo Russell ($24 million, No. 33)
A relatively slow start for Russell hasn't scared off the #NBArank panel, which voted him 33rd in trade value -- ahead of No. 3 overall pick Jahlil Okafor. The statistical projections generally concur with that assessment.
Nos. 41-45
41. Paul Millsap ($29 million, No. 46)
42. Clint Capela ($34 million, No. 49)
43. Al Horford ($13 million, No. 35)
44. Gordon Hayward ($18 million, No. 40)
45. Danilo Gallinari ($15 million, No. 42)
Given the recent report by ESPN's Kevin Arnovitz and Brian Windhorst that the Hawks are considering trading Horford before the deadline, the center is an interesting case. The impending free agent is likely to be fairly paid on the max contract he's sure to get next summer.
Nos. 46-50
46. Kemba Walker ($48 million, No. 62)
47. Robert Covington ($40 million, No. 59)
48. Jahlil Okafor ($minus-2 million, No. 34)
49. Aaron Gordon ($18 million, No. 50)
50. Marc Gasol ($7 million, No. 43)
A couple of Sixers present interesting cases here. Covington is the ultimate Sam Hinkie signing. A solid 3-and-D role player who can defend both forward spots, Covington will make the league minimum the next two seasons. Voters weren't as high on the merits of his cheap contract. Instead, they favored Okafor, whose horrendous RPM rating improbably leaves him with projected negative net value over his rookie contract.