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Skooby

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Ranking MJ, LeBron, Magic, Bird and the 40 best NBA players ever



Over the seven decades the NBA has existed, a lot has changed -- including even the name of the league, which originally incorporated as the Basketball Association of America (BAA). Differences in style of play, level of competition, rules and the addition of the 3-point line make it difficult for us to compare across eras for projects like ESPN's ongoing effort to pick the best NBA players of all-time using #NBArank voting.

One thing hasn't changed: the championship trophy for which all teams are competing. (OK, technically, that too has changed styles and names, but the concept is the same.) So in seeking to rank every player in NBA history statistically, my north star was how much they helped teams win championships.

The result is a metric, championships added, that incorporates both performance during the regular season and the postseason (using Basketball-Reference.com's win shares) and gives true stars more credit for their contributions than players who merely hung around. I also came up with the idea of valuing subjective honors such as All-Star appearances, All-NBA picks and MVP voting based on how well they translate to winning championships.

For more on the details, including what I found about how performance translates to championships, I wrote up a full description. If you just want the results, read on to find out how I've ranked the 40 best players in NBA history.





1. Michael Jordan
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Championships added: 4.38
Regular season: 2.3 (2nd)
Playoffs: 1.7 (1st)
Awards: 3.0 (1st)

Evaluating the consensus GOAT (greatest of all time) is a good example of why I prefer rating players in terms of championships rather than simply career win shares. Because of his two retirements, Jordan ranks fourth in career win shares behind players with more games. But Jordan's best seasons gave the Chicago Bulls an overwhelming chance of winning a championship (as, of course, they did six times). So Jordan moves up to second strictly in the regular season, is tops in the playoffs and blows away the field with his five MVPs in a highly competitive era.





2. Wilt Chamberlain
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Championships added: 4.16
Regular season: 3.1 (1st)
Playoffs: 1.6 (3rd)
Awards: 2.0 (6th)

Chamberlain's teams won only twice, but this method at the very least suggests Chamberlain should have gotten more trophies. Part of the issue, certainly, is that Chamberlain wasn't nearly as dominant in the playoffs as in the regular season, and a method that puts more weight on postseason success might have him lower.



3. LeBron James
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Championships added: 3.86
Regular season: 1.9 (4th)
Playoffs: 1.6 (2nd)
Awards: 2.7 (3rd)

Just 10th in career win shares, James also comes out better in a method that gives more weight to his best seasons. Despite his teams winning fewer championships than this metric suggests they should have, James' playoff performance hasn't disappointed. Too often, as in the 2015 NBA Finals, he has been the best player on the court in a series his team lost because of limited contributions from teammates.

4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
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Championships added: 3.85
Regular season: 2.2 (3rd)
Playoffs: 1.4 (5th)
Awards: 2.7 (2nd)

No. 1 by a wide margin in career win shares, Abdul-Jabbar doesn't benefit quite as much from the length of his career here. Since he was a secondary figure in most of the Showtime Lakers' championship runs, his playoff performance also doesn't quite match up to how he did in the regular season. Still, Abdul-Jabbar was third all-time before James passed him last season.

5. Bill Russell
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Championships added: 2.98
Regular season: 1.1 (15th)
Playoffs: 1.6 (4th)
Awards: 1.7 (11th)

Russell never led the league in win shares during the regular season, so his rating there lags a bit. Of course, Russell wasn't playing for the regular season. He peaked in the playoffs, leading Boston to 11 championships -- or eight more than this method suggests his career would produce on average.

The Russell-Chamberlain comparison illustrates some of the limitations of this method, which is only as good as the underlying stats. As we know from the advent of SportVU data and metrics like ESPN's real plus-minus that incorporate how teams perform with players on and off the court, the box score misses much of the game. That's doubly true before the 1970s, when turnovers, blocked shots and steals weren't tracked.

Basketball-Reference.com has done a good job using what stats were available to estimate player value, and Russell appropriately comes out as the league's best defender by win shares in 11 of his 13 seasons. Still, it's tough to get a full picture of how those players rate, making championships added a starting point for discussion rather than a definitive ranking.



6. Tim Duncan
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Championships added: 2.78
Regular season: 1.3 (10th)
Playoffs: 1.2 (6th)
Awards: 1.9 (7th)

Still a valuable part of one of the league's best teams at age 39, Duncan has an outside shot at surpassing Russell and moving into the all-time top five before he calls it a career.

7. Shaquille O'Neal
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Championships added: 2.65
Regular season: 1.1 (13th)
Playoffs: 1.0 (10th)
Awards: 2.1 (5th)

Though O'Neal won just one MVP trophy, he gets credited here for finishing runner-up twice and third two other seasons. In hindsight, he probably deserved the trophy in both 2000-01 (when it went to Allen Iverson, with Duncan second) and 2004-05 (Steve Nash).

8. Magic Johnson
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Championships added: 2.53
Regular season: 1.0 (18th)
Playoffs: 1.2 (7th)
Awards: 1.8 (10th)

While this method does a good job of emphasizing peak play, Johnson would certainly still rank higher had HIV not forced him into retirement. In his last full season, 1990-91, Magic added an estimated 0.23 championships -- the second-best season of his career by this measure.

9. Larry Bird
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Championships added: 2.36
Regular season: 0.9 (23rd)
Playoffs: 0.8 (13th)
Awards: 2.3 (4th)

It's only fitting for Magic and Larry to finish next to each other on the all-time list. They got there in slightly different ways, however, with Bird deriving more benefit from the three times he won MVP -- and four others he finished second.

10. Karl Malone
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Championships added: 2.33
Regular season: 1.7 (6th)
Playoffs: 0.5 (23rd)
Awards: 1.9 (8th)

Only Abdul-Jabbar racked up more career win shares than Malone did in his 19-year career, but because his best seasons weren't as good as those of other stars -- and especially because he tended not to come through in the same level during the postseason -- Malone slips to 10th on this list.
 

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No. 11-15


11. Kobe Bryant (2.33 championships added)
12. George Mikan (2.25 championships added)
13. Jerry West (2.25 championships added)
14. Julius Erving (2.11 championships added)
15. Dirk Nowitzki (1.95 championships added)

I originally introduced a version of this metric to evaluate Bryant's career when he announced his retirement. At that point, playoff performance and awards weren't factored in, and both benefit Bryant. As a result, he has moved up to 11th -- though still outside the top 10.

Mikan is probably the most challenging player to rank. Despite adjusting for level of competition, he's fifth in championships added, and would rank in the top 10 if not for the fact that he never won MVP (because they didn't introduce it until after he retired). Still, given how quickly Mikan's play declined as the league improved in quality, this feels too high.





No. 16-20
16. Oscar Robertson (1.90 championships added)
17. David Robinson (1.77 championships added)
18. Kevin Garnett (1.70 championships added)
19. Hakeem Olajuwon (1.68 championships added)
20. Charles Barkley (1.65 championships added)

Robinson over Olajuwon is one of the metric's most contestable results. Advanced metrics loved the Admiral, at least during the regular season. Both Robinson (seventh) and Robertson (eighth) rank among the top 10 in championships added during the regular season. But both of them and Garnett had less impact in the playoffs, in which Olajuwon (16th) is far and away tops among this group. On regular-season performance alone, Olajuwon ranks 29th.





No. 21-25
21. Bob Pettit (1.62 championships added)
22. Moses Malone (1.58 championships added)
23. Dolph Schayes (1.56 championships added)
24. Kevin Durant (1.44 championships added)
25. John Stockton (1.43 championships added)

In general, the biggest discrepancies between championships added and #NBArank voting are for players from the 1950s. Schayes, who recently passed away at age 87, is a good example. Despite making the All-NBA First Team six times, he finished 74th in the voting. Pettit hasn't suffered as much because he won a pair of MVPs and defeated Russell's Celtics in the 1958 NBA Finals.





No. 26-30
26. Elgin Baylor (1.26 championships added)
27. Dwyane Wade (1.21 championships added)
28. Chris Paul (1.19 championships added)
29. Artis Gilmore (1.18 championships added)
30. Scottie Pippen (1.16 championships added)

Because the NBA officially considers the ABA part of its history after the merger, I included ABA stats. That boosts Gilmore, who won an MVP and a championships during five ABA seasons. Gilmore was still productive in the NBA, making six All-Star games after age 26, but he was not nearly so dominant. That's a big reason why he finished 70th in #NBArank.





No. 31-35
31. John Havlicek (1.11 championships added)
32. Bob Cousy (1.05 championships added)
33. Walt Frazier (1.03 championships added)
34. Jason Kidd (1.03 championships added)
35. Paul Arizin (1.01 championships added)

Cousy is one of the most interesting cases for championships added. In terms of regular-season performance, he's not in the top 100 all-time. But Cousy ranks 38th in playoff performance and 24th in terms of awards thanks to 10 All-NBA First Team selections and an MVP.





No. 36-40
36. Dwight Howard (1.01 championships added)
37. Reggie Miller (1.00 championships added)
38. Chauncey Billups (0.98 championships added)
39. Steve Nash (0.98 championships added)
40. Rick Barry (0.94 championships added)

Perhaps the most unlikely player in the top 40 is Billups, who finished 87th in voting. As a contemporary player, Billups -- who retired in 2014 and is now a studio analyst for ESPN -- is hardly comparable to overlooked veterans from decades ago or even someone like Gilmore whose best years came in the ABA.

So why does Billups rate so well? He had six seasons with 10-plus win shares, tying him for 34th all time, plus another in which he finished with 9.9. And Billups (aka "Mr. Big Shot") was even better in the postseason, ranking 20th in championships added in the playoffs for his contributions to the Detroit teams that got to the Finals in consecutive seasons and won the 2004 championships.
 

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Behind the bracket: It still remains a wide-open NCAA tournament field



It's a great parlor game: "I'll take teams A, B and C to win the national championship, and you get the field."

Name the stakes.

A year ago, the trio of Kentucky, Wisconsin and Duke -- the consensus top three teams on Selection Sunday -- was a pretty safe bet. Your chances of cutting down the nets with one of them were excellent.

Most years, it takes about a half-dozen teams to make for an even "these guys versus the field" bet. This season? I'll wait ...

Heading into the weekend, my No. 1 seeds were Oklahoma, North Carolina, Villanova and Iowa. To my eyes, only the Wildcats-- due mainly to an over-reliance on 3-point shooting -- would be excluded as a realistic NCAA championship candidate.

The second line on the bracket -- Kansas, Xavier, Texas A&M and Virginia -- also has what I think are three possible title teams. In this case I'd exclude Xavier, whom I greatly admire but view as too much of an overachiever to win six games in the tournament.

How about the No. 3 seeds? If I said Maryland, Oregon, Michigan State and Iowa State could all be the last team standing, would you disagree? Throw in Kentucky and Louisville from a little further down the bracket, and we're looking at a dozen or more teams with a realistic chance to win it all.

In December, I suggested the No. 1 seeds for the current season would be among the weakest in the Bracketology era. They are certainly no match for last year's juggernauts, all of which were superior even without the 800-pound gorilla that was Kentucky.

Nearly two months later, the field has only gotten muddier. North Carolina probably has the most talent and Oklahoma, at least for the moment, has the best résumé. But you'd have to twist my arm in a big way not to take the field in pretty much any bet.

In other words, this still figures to be an NCAA tournament in which no lead or seed is safe. And the selection of the last few at-large teams will be more critical than usual, as the potential for those teams to make a run to the Sweet 16 and beyond will be far higher than normal.

It was only five years ago that unheralded VCU, a No. 11 seed, went from the First Four to the Final Four with victories over USC, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State and No. 1 overall Kansas. This is shaping up as another season like that one.

And the time to start looking for sleepers is now.

Trending elsewhere



  • RISING: Virginia, Purdue, Baylor, Florida, Cincinnati, Saint Joseph's


  • FALLING: West Virginia, Miami (Fla.), Louisville, California, UCLA


  • OVERRATED: Arizona, Duke, Butler, Texas Tech


  • UNDERRATED: Oregon, Dayton, Texas, Utah, VCU


  • INCOMPLETE: Wichita State, Syracuse
 

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QBs Carson Wentz and Jared Goff rising in McShay's Mock Draft 2.0


A lot has changed in the NFL since we published our first 2016 mock draft in December. The order for the first 29 picks is now locked in, and the final two slots will be determined by the result of Sunday's Super Bowl between the Broncos and Panthers. (Remember, there are only 31 first-round picks because the Patriots lost their selection as a result of Deflategate sanctions.)





With NFL evaluators digging more into college tape -- and several players having breakout performances at last week's Senior Bowl -- our Mock Draft 2.0 looks a little different from version 1.0.

Which player will your team select in the first round? Here is our second projection of the 31 first-round picks in the 2016 NFL draft.

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1. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State Buckeyes

If the Titans are looking to trade this pick, they might be able to find a team hoping to jump the Browns to select a quarterback. If no deal materializes, Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil would fill the team's biggest need. But the move is to pull the trigger on Bosa, the best player in the class. You can never have too many pass-rushers. And remember: One of Bosa's best traits is that he's scheme versatile, so he'd be a fit even if the Titans decide to stick with a 3-4 alignment.



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2. Cleveland Browns (3-13)
Jared Goff, QB, California Golden Bears

If Bosa is still on the board here for whatever reason, he would be a good option. But quarterback is undoubtedly Cleveland's top need, and the more tape I study, the more I believe it's a two-horse race between Goff and North Dakota State's Carson Wentz for the No. 1 passer. As it stands now -- after studying five of Goff's games this season and four of Wentz's -- the two have identical grades. From Cleveland's perspective, Goff has a bit more velocity on his fastball to cut through the wind, while Wentz has more experience playing in the cold. Tough call, but I'll go with Goff for now.



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3. San Diego Chargers (4-12)
Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss Rebels

With Philip Rivers now 34, there's a school of thought that says San Diego should pick its long-term successor here (Goff or Wentz). But if the Chargers are going to make a run at the playoffs before Rivers retires, they must solidify their offensive line. Rivers can't function without better protection and more balance from the running game (ranked 31st in the NFL last season). Tunsil -- the top pass-blocking OT in the draft -- needs to improve his strength, but he's an outstanding athlete for his size (6-foot-5, 305 pounds).




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4. Dallas Cowboys (4-12)
Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State Bison

Now that I'm deep into Wentz's tape, I feel very comfortable saying he's a legit first-round talent. He has the height, sturdy frame, natural accuracy, pocket mobility and on-field leadership you look for in a QB. He was 20-3 as a starter at NDSU and won two FCS national titles. You could certainly make a case for the Cowboys taking the best available D-line prospect, such as Oregon's DeForest Buckner. But if Dallas is sold on Wentz (or Goff, if he's available), this could prove to be a very wise long-term investment at the game's most important position.



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5. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
Jalen Ramsey, CB, Florida State Seminoles

For a team looking to improve on defense, this would be an ideal scenario. Ramsey is the No. 2 overall player on our board, thanks to his versatility in the secondary (he can play corner or safety at the next level), along with his incredible athleticism. He isn't the best pure man-to-man cover CB in this class (that distinction belongs to Vernon Hargreaves III), but Ramsey is the best all-around player among the secondary crop.



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6. Baltimore Ravens (5-11)
Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame Fighting Irish

When picking this high -- and the Ravens rarely do -- you'd ideally like to draft a priority position (QB, OT, pass-rusher, CB or WR, with the order depending on team needs). Stanley benefited greatly from returning to school for his senior season, during which he showed improved strength and technique. He is a fine athlete for his long frame and would give the Ravens a long-term solution at left tackle.



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7. San Francisco 49ers (5-11)
Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss Rebels

Chip Kelly must eventually solve the 49ers' QB situation, but if Goff and Wentz are off the board, it's likely not going to happen with this pick. The next-best option: Treadwell, who is this draft's clear-cut top wide receiver. He might not blaze a 4.3 40 at the combine, but he's a legit difference-maker at every level of the field. Treadwell reminds me a lot of Dez Bryant physically when he was coming out of Oklahoma State. This is a big, strong receiver with a very good combination of athletic ability, body control and ball skills.



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8. Miami Dolphins (6-10)
Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida Gators

At 5-foot-11, 195 pounds, Hargreaves has adequate size to go along with outstanding suddenness, body control and deep speed. He thrives in man-to-man coverage, and with CB Brent Grimes turning 33 this summer, Hargreaves would be a good fit in Miami. The other option would be Oregon DE DeForest Buckner if free-agent-to-be Olivier Vernon leaves town.



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9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)
DeForest Buckner, DE, Oregon Ducks

At 6-foot-7, 285 pounds, Buckner isn't a traditional edge rusher -- and some teams may view him as a 5-technique -- but playing in a four-man front, he could be a stout run defender at left defensive end and move inside to rush the QB on obvious passing downs. Buckner, who posted 12.0 tackles for loss in conference play this season, would give the Bucs a much-needed playmaker at DE.



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10. New York Giants (6-10)
Sheldon Rankins, DT, Louisville Cardinals

We've been on Rankins' bandwagon for quite some time, as his combination of quickness and power popped off the screen whenever we turned on the film. After having a terrific week of practices at the Senior Bowl, the versatile D-lineman is shooting up draft boards. At 6-foot-2, 303 pounds, Rankins would give the Giants a devastating DT combo with Johnathan Hankins.
 

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11. Chicago Bears (6-10)
Myles Jack, LB, UCLA Bruins

An outstanding natural athlete, Jack doesn't fill the Bears' biggest need (edge rusher), but he does given them a major playmaking upgrade at linebacker. While Alabama's Reggie Ragland would be a more traditional ILB fit, Jack -- who's coming off a season-ending knee injury in September -- would provide more versatility in coverage.



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12. New Orleans Saints (7-9)
A'Shawn Robinson, DT, Alabama Crimson Tide

Yes, Robinson can play too high at times, but the tape shows a player who frequently took on two blockers, freeing up others along the front seven to make plays. Not many 315-pounders move like Robinson, who found himself in the backfield more often than not. He put up his best production in 2015 (46 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks), but he played even better than those numbers indicate. This offseason for New Orleans is all about finding defensive playmakers, and Robinson certainly fits that bill.



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13. Philadelphia Eagles (7-9)
Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State Spartans

At 6-foot-6, 325 pounds, Conklin shows good mobility for his size, along with very consistent awareness, technique and effort. He plays with power and is a finisher in the run game. He's balanced enough to protect a quarterback's blind side. Even after signing Lane Johnson to an extension, the Eagles need to plan for the future at tackle with Jason Peters now 34.



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14. Oakland Raiders (7-9)
Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss Rebels

Conklin would be a good pick here if available, but he's not in this scenario. If the Raiders are willing to take a risk, Nkemdiche is a top-10 talent who has fallen this far because of character concerns. When he's right, the 6-foot-4, 296-pound Nkemdiche is a highly disruptive 3-technique D-lineman with the versatility to play inside and outside.



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15. Los Angeles Rams (7-9)
Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis Tigers

This is a tough call. The Rams have an obvious need at quarterback, but is Lynch their long-term answer? While I still have more work to do on him, Lynch does have a lot of the tools you look for in future NFL starters -- size, arm strength, mobility and the ability to create when the initial play breaks down. Two concerns I have early in the pre-draft process: his inconsistent decision-making and accuracy.



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16. Detroit Lions (7-9)
Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a tone-setting player in the middle of the defense, which is exactly what the Lions need. Ragland could fall because of positional value and team needs, but I could make an argument that he's one of the 10 best pure football players in this year's draft. He showed excellent power at the point of attack and has very good straight-line speed for his size.



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17. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson

The Falcons had a league-low 19 sacks last season, so it's clear they need to continue to bolster their pass rush. Lawson -- a former teammate of Atlanta's 2015 first-round DE Vic Beasley Jr. -- could be the answer because of his good combination of power, quickness and relentlessness. This also would be a great spot for Notre Dame OLB Jaylon Smith, who tore his ACL and MCL in the Irish's bowl game and would be a top-five player in this draft if healthy.



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18. Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State Buckeyes

Andrew Luck would love this pick after getting beat up in 2015 before suffering season-ending injuries. The 6-foot-7 Decker has enough range, strength and toughness to hold up in pass protection on the perimeter in the NFL. He's not overpowering as a run-blocker, but he's highly efficient and consistent.



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19. Buffalo Bills (8-8)
Jaylon Smith, LB, Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This selection comes with some risk because of Smith's knee injury, but if the Bills' doctors clear him, Smith would be a great pick. He took his game to the next level this past season and is an elite athlete. Smith has experience playing inside and outside and would fit well as the weakside off-ball linebacker in Rex Ryan's defense. Other options here: Alabama DT Jarran Reed and Ohio State OLB Darron Lee.



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20. New York Jets (10-6)
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State Buckeyes

Elliott makes a lot of sense for the Jets, whose top three running backs are all free agents. Over the past two seasons, Elliott has shown plenty of examples of his game-breaking ability as a rusher (3,699 yards and 41 TDs). He's also an outstanding pass-blocker -- the best RB I've ever studied in that area -- and a reliable weapon as a pass-catcher. Depending on what the Jets decide to do with free-agent DTs Muhammad Wilkerson and Damon Harrison, Reed also could be in play at this spot.



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21. Washington Redskins (9-7)
Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama Crimson Tide

Reed is one of the best run-stuffing defensive linemen in this draft, which is saying something considering the talent pool up front. And while his sack numbers are underwhelming (2.0 total in two seasons), he still provides adequate inside push as a bull rusher. Even if free agent Terrance Knighton returns, it's time for Washington to add youth to its defensive front.



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22. Houston Texans (9-7)
Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Quarterback is clearly the top need for Houston. Michigan State's Connor Cook is the next-best available player there, but he's a reach at No. 22 overall. Christian Hackenberg could be in play for the Texans in Round 2, considering his connection with coach Bill O'Brien. Butler would fill another need along the interior of the D-line. He showed off outstanding agility for his size (325 pounds) at the Senior Bowl last week. He plays with explosive power and brings a unique skill set to the field.



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23. Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State Buckeyes

A former high school quarterback, Lee is a terrific athlete and a natural playmaker, racking up 27.5 tackles for loss, 12 sacks, 3 INTs and 3 forced fumbles over his past two seasons. He's still developing as a run-stopping LB, but he has come a long way in that regard. Even if Minnesota signs free-agent LB Chad Greenway, it's time to add another young piece to the linebacker corps.



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24. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State Buckeyes

This might be a bit of a reach, but the Bengals could certainly use a versatile offensive weapon like Miller. He was the best pure athlete on the field during Senior Bowl practices, dazzling in agility drills and one-on-ones. His precise route-running ability is not indicative of a player who has been playing the position full time for less than a year. With three WRs set to be free agents, Cincinnati has lots of question marks after A.J. Green at that position.
 

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25. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State Buckeyes

With good length (6-foot-1, 200 pounds) and top-end speed, Apple showed he could turn and run with Notre Dame speedster Will Fuller during the Fiesta Bowl. He's also a strong tackler and run supporter, which are qualities the Steelers value highly in their defensive backs.



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26. Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor Bears

Billings has freakish weight-room strength that he puts to good use as a run defender. A great athlete for the position, he displays an impressive combination of quickness and power. Billings improved his consistency as a third-year starter, and that led to him playing the best football of his career in 2015 (14.0 TFLs and 5.5 sacks).



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27. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas Razorbacks

This is not a deep TE class, so the top prospects could come off the board earlier than expected. Henry is an underrated talent, partly due to playing in Arkansas' run-heavy offense. At 6-foot-5 and 253 pounds, he has the body type to make plays down the seam, and he has shown the intelligence to find holes in zone coverage. Aaron Rodgers needs an upgrade at TE, and Henry would give him another weapon in the passing game.



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28. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
Vonn Bell, S, Ohio State Buckeyes

With nine career interceptions, Bell displays great instincts and range in coverage. He's an aggressive and tough run defender who had remarkable durability, playing in all 42 Ohio State games since 2013. This is an NFL-ready safety who could start for the Chiefs in Week 1.



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29. Arizona Cardinals (13-3)
Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky Colonels

Spence tore it up at the Senior Bowl, displaying natural speed and athleticism off the edge. He might be the best pure pass-rusher in this draft. He's a top-15 talent -- until you factor in his off-field issues. A former top recruit, Spence was suspended twice at Ohio State for using Ecstasy, before transferring to Eastern Kentucky in 2015. Teams will really have to do their homework on Spence, because you can't teach his type of quickness.



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30. Denver Broncos (12-4)
Jason Spriggs, OT, Indiana Hoosiers

Spriggs is getting a lot of first-round love after a strong Senior Bowl. I need to study more of his tape, but from what I've seen so far, this would be a reach. With that said, we see teams reaching for offensive tackles in the first round nearly every year. A team like Denver, which needs to upgrade its O-line, could get enamored with a LT prospect like Spriggs, who showed off ideal measurables and good athleticism at the Senior Bowl.



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31. Carolina Panthers (15-1)
Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson Tigers

Dodd notched 23.5 tackles for loss this season, second in the FBS to his fellow Clemson DE Shaq Lawson. Dodd brings a great energy to the game, and I think he's a more fluid athlete and a better natural edge rusher than Lawson. But Dodd is not as stout vs. the run or as consistent. Notre Dame WR Will Fuller also would make sense here because of his ability to stretch the field vertically.
 

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Re-grading the 2015 offseason for all 32 teams



The New England Patriots tend to get the last laugh. The Cleveland Browns tend to get laughs. So it is again as we re-grade the work teams put in last offseason.

The Patriots jumped into the A range. The Browns, downgraded from a C-plus to D-minus, have company in detention. Ill-fated 2015 offseasons for Philadelphia and San Francisco reverberated with enough force to launch coach Chip Kelly from the Eagles to the 49ers. Those teams' re-grades suffered accordingly.

Here's how all 32 teams fared when put under the microscope for a second time.

AFC EAST
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Buffalo Bills
Offseason grade: B+

Re-signing key players such as Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams secured high marks for the Bills last offseason even amid some concerns over the price paid for LeSean McCoy and the team's coaching change. What we missed, completely, was the impact Tyrod Taylor would have at quarterback. The Bills had Taylor buried on the depth chart when we handed out grades, so there was little outward indication the team had big plans for him. Buffalo scored significant offseason victories by adding Taylor, guard Richie Incognito and second-round cornerback Ronald Darby.

Re-grade: A-



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Miami Dolphins
Offseason grade: B

The re-signings/additions of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, center Mike Pouncey, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, tight end Jordan Cameron and receiver DeVante Parker generally went over well at the time. But the Dolphins did not get their money's worth in 2015, leading to changes in the front office and coaching staff. Those high-priced players could still pay off in the long run, but until they do, it makes sense to knock them down a peg.

Re-grade: C




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New England Patriots
Offseason grade: C

The Patriots took a hit in the initial grading for losing talent in the secondary while failing to bolster the offensive skill positions. They got the last laugh (big surprise there) as Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan took over at cornerback and Dion Lewis provided tremendous value at running back until suffering a season-ending knee injury. The addition of defensive end Jabaal Sheard was a good one, as expected. Re-signing Devin McCourty, Rob Ninkovich, Patrick Chung, Danny Amendola and Stephen Gostkowski made sense. New England also got 3,210 snaps from a promising rookie class, good for the NFL's seventh-highest total. Malcolm Brown, Shaq Mason, David Andrews and Tre' Jackson all played at least 491 snaps for a team that nearly reached a second consecutive Super Bowl. The $7.3 million per year spent for linebacker Jerod Mayo did not pay off, but New England still jumped two spots to No. 10 in defensive expected points added.

Re-grade: A-



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New York Jets
Offseason grade: A

The Jets' first year under general manager Mike Maccagnan and coach Todd Bowles showed what can happen when a struggling team uses all potential avenues for improvement. The Jets went from the bottom 10 to the top 10 in both offensive and defensive expected points added. Trades for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and receiver Brandon Marshall paid off big. Spending in free agency often backfires, but the Jets fared well there too, upgrading their secondary. Veteran addition James Carpenter was better on the Jets' offensive line than he previously was on the Seattle line. The Jets also resisted overthinking in the draft when they selected Leonard Williams sixth overall.

Re-grade: A



AFC NORTH
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Baltimore Ravens
Offseason grade: B-

The Ravens' season unraveled for reasons largely beyond their control. Offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak unexpectedly left to coach the Broncos, forcing another scheme change onto Joe Flacco. Injuries wiped out Terrell Suggs,Justin Forsett, Flacco, Steve Smith Sr. and first-round pick Breshad Perriman. Those injuries made the Ravens pay an exorbitant price for moves that otherwise might have drawn much less attention, such as letting receiver Torrey Smith, linebacker Pernell McPhee and backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor leave in free agency. Re-signing safety Will Hill and guard Marshal Yanda worked out well, but cornerback Jimmy Smith struggled after re-upping on a deal worth $10.3 million annually.

Re-grade: C



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Cincinnati Bengals
Offseason grade: C+

Some thought the Bengals needed to be more aggressive, but Cincinnati disproved that thinking. The Bengals' roster was so strong that the team might still be playing had quarterback Andy Dalton not suffered a thumb injury. Cincinnati got a league-low 745 snaps from its rookies -- and that is not necessarily a bad thing. Teams such as Denver, Carolina and Seattle also ranked near the bottom of that category, having rosters packed with players in their primes and few openings. Cincinnati worked the free-agency system beautifully in re-signing defensive end Michael Johnson a year after watching him collect a windfall from Tampa Bay. Those transactions one year apart allowed the Bengals to collect a compensatory draft choice in addition to signing Johnson at reasonable cost.

Re-grade: B+



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Cleveland Browns
Offseason grade: C+

The Browns badly needed to upgrade their offensive weaponry last offseason, particularly at wide receiver. They did not make much of an effort on that front, and the results were predictable. Signing Dwayne Bowe for $6.25 million per year might have been the most baffling move any team made last offseason, then and now. Bowe was out of shape and fell out of favor with the coaching staff, which basically refused to play him. First-round picks Danny Sheltonand Cameron Erving could turn into good players, but their initial contributions were underwhelming. Defensive lineman Ahtyba Rubin left in free agency and became a key contributor for Seattle.

Re-grade: D-



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Pittsburgh Steelers
Offseason grade: B-

Re-signing Ben Roethlisberger and adding running back DeAngelo Williams as insurance for Le'Veon Bell stand out as two of the best moves Pittsburgh made last offseason. The change to Keith Butler at defensive coordinator seemed to go well as the Steelers' defense improved from 24th in 2014 to 11th this season in expected points added. Pittsburgh also got good value from 37-year-old James Harrison, who re-signed for less than $1.4 million. On the down side, Pittsburgh got only 801 snaps from its rookies, the second-lowest figure in the league. Losing second-round choice Senquez Golson to injury hurt the Steelers at cornerback. First-rounder Bud Dupree played 539 snaps, but his rookie season was not particularly notable.

Re-grade: B-
 
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