Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

Trend Watch: Rising and falling small forwards

Utah Jazz


What's up?

With Miami Heat[/paste:font]


What's up?

Deng is averaging a career-low 9.8 points and that number keeps falling by the month. According to basketball-reference.com, Deng's scoring rate by month is as follows: 11.5, 10.1, 10.2 and 8.7, the last his figure in 11 January outings. Deng continues to start and play big minutes, but his production keeps decreasing.

Why is this happening?

Deng's .526 true shooting percentage is well off last season (.561) but it's right at his career average. His shot distribution has become much more focused on 3-point shots and, as usual, he's a tick below average from deep. However, his low usage rate is not just a product of fewer shots, but also a career-low turnover rate. On top of that, his assist rate is his lowest ever. What we have here, folks, is the portrait of a former All-Star whose current offensive role is to stand in a corner and stay out of the way.

Is this a thing?

As mentioned, Deng's minutes haven't wavered, so it's not like Erik Spoelstra lacks confidence in him. But in the current Miami pecking order, Dwyane Wade and Dallas Mavericks[/paste:font]


What's up?

From a cold, hard statistical perspective, Parsons has been one of the more disappointing players in the league. Forecasted for 5.1 WARP (No. 66 in the NBA), he's on pace to finish at minus-0.07, ranking 306th. Not good. According to ESPN's RPM metric, it's not like Parsons is making up for it in intangible contribution. He's in the red on both offense and defense. He also had knee surgery last May, a procedure later revealed to be kinda-sorta microfracture surgery.

Why is this happening?

In the context of the injury, Parsons' season trajectory makes sense. His 3-point shooting hasn't been up to snuff, but it hasn't been disastrously below his career norm. And he's actually shooting a solid 52 percent on 2s. The shortcomings come everywhere else. Parsons is playing a career-low 25.8 minutes. That's as you'd expect but it's knocked down his rebound numbers to all-but-useless. He's also coming up short in athletic-based categories like steal rate and foul-drawing.

Is this a thing?

Sure. Parsons is not all the way back from the knee injury and he's also had a hip problem. All of this is reflected in both his limited court time and his dip in floor play. Just last week, Dallas coach Rick Carlisle told ESPN's Tim MacMahon, "I see a guy who has done extremely well with his rehab and conditioning, but we're not to the top of the curve yet. I think this is going to be another month before we can expect any of the real consistency that he had before the injury."

Verdict?

Since Carlisle made those comments, Parsons has played 32.7 minutes per game, averaged 13.6 points and hit 56 percent from deep. He's also up to five rebounds during that span. As for the consistency aspect, it's important to note that while Parsons played all those minutes, he also sat out the back end of back-to-back games on Jan. 13. Then he turned around and played in back-to-backs this week. Generally, the trend seems good. Be guarded, but it feels like the best for Parsons' season is yet to come.

 

[Skooby]

Outsiders: Peyton Manning's playoff career is better than you think

Peyton Manning's playoff career worthy of more respect



Every football fan has voiced his or her opinion on the rivalry between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady; now that we're in the postseason, those opinions only get louder. Brady (30) and Manning (25) rank 1-2 in career playoff starts among NFL quarterbacks, and they will face each other for the fifth time in the postseason in Sunday's AFC Championship Game in Denver.

When the opinions turn to facts, the unique voices become harder to differentiate. For many, the following simple evidence ends any argument:

• Brady (22-8) has the most playoff wins in NFL history.
• Manning (12-13) has the most playoff losses in NFL history, including nine one-and-done postseasons.
• Brady is 4-2 in the Super Bowl, while Manning is 1-2.

Even for fans capable of recognizing how unreliable the win-loss record is in evaluating quarterbacks, that difference in winning percentage is hard to overlook. Seventeen quarterbacks have started at least 12 career playoff games, and Dan Marino (8-10) is the only other one among them without a winning record.

What if I told you the main difference between Manning and Brady in the postseason was the outcome of four field goals and two plays by defenders with the last name of Moore?

Manning and Brady have had more than 1,000 dropbacks each in the playoffs, but six game-changing plays in which neither quarterback was on the field have shaped these records as much as anything. Close games often turn on one play. In the history of the NFL playoffs, there is no greater example than Manning when it comes to quarterbacks who get bad breaks, and no greater example than Brady when it comes to a quarterback who benefits from a teammate's triumphs.



The statistical comparison


If Manning had Andy Dalton's playoff stats and performed at Dalton's level, the Brady-Manning debate would have ended years ago, because Manning would have nowhere close to 12 playoff wins in that case.

What Manning does have are some of the best playoff stats and achievements in NFL history. This has been overshadowed because of early struggles and the fact that his career has run concurrently with Brady's. When you match them up in various efficiency stats from Football Outsiders (explained here) that adjust for situation, opponent and league averages, or a metric like Total QBR (explained here) that takes all types of plays into account, Manning's postseason performance is ahead of or on par with Brady's.






Playoff metric Peyton Manning Tom Brady
Games started 25 (2nd) 30 (1st)
Wins as starter 12 (6th) 22 (1st)
Passing DVOA (FO) 26.8% (7th) 23.3% (11th)
Total DYAR (FO) 2,591 (2nd) 2,696 (1st)
Total QBR (ESPN; min. 100 plays) 66.0 (6th) 59.4 (12th)
Total EPA (ESPN) 77.9 (1st) 74.4 (2nd)
QB PAR (ESPN) 98.6 (1st) 89.1 (2nd)
QB PAA (ESPN) 38.7 (2nd) 19.8 (6th)
Yards per pass attempt 7.22 (26th) 6.79 (44th)
Passer rating 88.0 (16th) 89.6 (12th)
ESPN statistics and rankings are for 2006-2015
FO statistics and rankings are for 1989-2015
Official NFL rankings require minimum 150 passes




Manning's last three playoff games have not been strong, but he still bests Brady in career playoff DVOA and QBR, while nearly matching him in DYAR (a counting stat for total value) despite playing five fewer games. In the conference championship round, Brady has 590 DYAR in nine games compared to Manning's 594 DYAR in just four games.

Manning owns three of the top six playoff performances in DYAR since 1989. He led his team to a fourth-quarter lead in 13 consecutive playoff games, the longest streak in NFL history. He led the largest comeback (18 points) in conference championship game history against Brady and the 2006 Patriots. Two weeks later, he was MVP of Super Bowl XLI.

The Manning playoff résumé looks great until you see his record. But with such similar stats to Brady's, how can one quarterback be 12-13 and the other 22-8? We can look at statistical oddities, such as Brady having the most playoff wins (four) without throwing a touchdown pass, or Manning having the most playoff losses (six) without throwing an interception. But the obvious answer is not about the quarterbacks themselves; it's what their teammates have done in crunch time, and in which round.



Three plays to glory; three plays to ruin



No quarterback has been part of more close playoff losses than Manning, while no quarterback has been part of more close playoff wins than Brady.

Manning has lost a record six playoff games after leading in the fourth quarter, twice the number of Brady. Warren Moon (four) is the only other quarterback with more than three. Manning's teams had a lead in the final 40 seconds of four of those games. Five of the blown leads account for more than half of Manning's one-and-done seasons.

Some will say Brady's play in the clutch is the reason for this difference in close games. Manning blows games with costly turnovers, they will point out, such as the Tracy Porter pick-six in Super Bowl XLIV or the overtime interception against the 2012 Ravens.

I mention those two examples because they are the only two times Manning has turned the ball over in the playoffs in the fourth quarter or overtime with his team tied or down by eight points or fewer. Brady also has two interceptions in those situations -- both in 2006.

The difference is San Diego's Marlon McCree intercepted Brady on fourth down with the Chargers leading 21-13 with 6:16 left, but then fumbled the ball back to the Patriots, allowing Brady to tie the game and go on to win. The only other quarterback since 1994 to throw an interception in the fourth quarter and have it fumbled back to his team in a playoff game was Brett Favre. A week after that gift, Marlin Jackson intercepted Brady in the final minute to send Manning to his first Super Bowl.

Brady has nine game-winning drives in the playoffs, three more than the next-closest quarterback (John Elway). Manning had only his second on Sunday, and is 2-10 in game-winning drive opportunities, which is when the offense has the ball in the fourth quarter or overtime with his team tied or down eight points or fewer. Brady is 9-4 in those situations.

However, Brady's defense also did more to ensure the leads stood up. The Patriots are 11-3 at defending a one-score lead in the playoffs compared to a lousy 6-6 record for Manning's teams. Offenses can close games, too, but it is clear that Brady has not played as well as Manning with a one-score lead in the fourth quarter in his playoff career. His success rate (SR) is worse and he has thrown more interceptions. Even on Saturday against the Chiefs, his game-clinching first down to Julian Edelman was dangerously tipped by two players.



Playoffs: Leading By 1-8 Points In The Fourth Quarter
Quarterback Att Comp Pct Yards TDs INTs PR SR
Tom Brady 46 24 52.2% 247 2 3 55.3 40.4%
Peyton Manning 42 31 73.8% 347 2 1 104.0 54.5%


Manning has just two game-winning drives, but he put his team in position for at least four more. A "lost comeback" is a game in which the quarterback brought his team from behind in the fourth quarter to a lead, but still went on to lose. There have been 38 of these in postseason history. Manning is the only quarterback to have two of them.

Manning is also the only quarterback to lose two playoff games after his kicker missed a clutch field goal (tied or down by one to three points in the fourth quarter or overtime). There have been only 10 missed do-or-die field goals in playoff history, and Brady has been the beneficiary of two of them with Nate Kaeding (2006 Chargers) and Billy Cundiff (2011 Ravens) failing to take the Patriots to overtime.

Just as Scott Norwood's miss at the end of Super Bowl XXV does not make Jim Kelly a worse quarterback, we should look at Manning and Brady (and everyone else) in the same light. What if Brady was the quarterback who lost two games after his kicker missed in the clutch? What if Brady's defense blew as many leads as it held? As mentioned in the beginning, just changing three plays that each quarterback was not even involved in would make a huge difference in how we perceive these players. Just three plays can put you on the path to glory or the path to ruin.

Let's start with Brady:

2001 vs. Oakland: Forget the Tuck Rule

You might think I would suggest to let the fumble stand instead of applying the infamous Tuck Rule here, but forget about that. Instead of Adam Vinatieri making arguably the greatest field goal in NFL history (45 yards in a blizzard), he misses, sending Brady to a 13-10 loss in his playoff debut.

Result: This voids that 3-0 Super Bowl run, starting Brady at 0-1 in the playoffs.

2003 vs. Tennessee: Vinatieri is the new Mike Vanderjagt

The wind chill was minus-10 and the Patriots and Titans were tied at 14. Brady completed a 4-yard pass on a 13-yard drive that stalled with 4:11 left. Vinatieri was the hero again with a 46-yard field goal. Imagine instead if he played the part of Vanderjagt, Manning's "idiot kicker," and shanked another one wide right.

Brady does not get another chance with the ball after the Titans drive the field for the win as Drew Bennett hangs onto Steve McNair's pass this time. Brady secures Manning's legacy as the only quarterback to lose two playoff games after a clutch field goal was missed.

Result: With another one-and-done instead of a Super Bowl run, Brady drops to 0-2 in the playoffs, averaging 13.5 points per game at home.


2011 vs. Baltimore: Sterling Moore pulls a Rahim Moore

At the end of the 2011 AFC Championship Game, Joe Flacco was driving the Ravens late, down 23-20. Brady could only watch as his defense tried to prevent a game-winning touchdown. Flacco threw a perfect pass to Lee Evans in the end zone, but a little-known defensive back named Sterling Moore knocked the ball out of his hands with 22 seconds left. Cundiff then missed a 32-yard field goal, so the Ravens couldn't even take the game to overtime. If Brady had Manning's luck, his defensive back is not knocking that ball out and the Ravens would get the 27-23 win to advance to the Super Bowl.

Final result: Instead of a 22-8 record with four rings, Brady would be 15-10 with two rings. That is still very good, but a far cry from his career mark, and not a single play involving him was changed here. We didn't even have to take away Malcolm Butler's interception of Russell Wilson at the 1-yard line, the costliest interception in NFL history.

Now, let's look at three plays by Manning's teammates.

2000 at Miami: Vanderjagt is clutch

Never mind the fact that the Colts let Jay Fiedler drive for the game-tying touchdown late, sending this game to overtime. Vanderjagt told Jim Mora he could make a 49-yard field goal after hitting earlier from 50. He shanked it nearly into the parking lot, but we're going to give him this one for the win.

Result: Manning evens his playoff record at 1-1 with another game to play, though the 2000 Colts would likely have lost to No. 1 seed Tennessee the following week.

2005 vs. Pittsburgh: Clutch Vanderjagt, but Colts still may lose

Arguably Manning's best team in Indianapolis, the 2005 Colts, nearly pulled off an 18-point rally in the fourth quarter. This was Manning's Tuck Rule game, as an interception by Troy Polamalu was mistakenly overturned. He also got the miracle gift of a Jerome Bettis fumble that Nick Harper, stabbed the day before the game by his wife, should have returned down the sideline for the game-winning touchdown. Ben Roethlisberger made that incredible open-field tackle, leading to Vanderjagt's miss on a 46-yard attempt in the dome.

Result: Let's say Vanderjagt makes the kick to force overtime, but we do not know what would happen next. Sure, the Colts might have won, and with Denver to come the following week, they may have gone to Super Bowl XL. But I think Manning got enough breaks in this one and would be fine with giving him the overtime loss, dropping him to 4-5 with another game to play at this point of his career. But let's keep an open mind on this ending until after we discuss the next play.

 

[Skooby]

2012 vs. Baltimore: Rahim Moore denies Jacoby Jones this time

Manning threw a go-ahead touchdown pass to give the Broncos a 35-28 lead over the Ravens. That's better than the 23-20 lead Brady gave his team over the Ravens the previous year. Flacco needed 70 yards and was down to 41 seconds. We all know what happened next. He threw a bomb and safety Moore inexplicably misplayed the ball, leading to a 70-yard touchdown for Jones. Manning was eventually intercepted in overtime, and Justin Tucker nailed a 47-yard field goal.

Final result: This time Moore plays the ball right and prevents Jones from making the catch, just like Sterling Moore did for Brady. Instead of a 12-13 record, Manning is 14-11 with at least two more games to play, including a home AFC Championship Game against the Patriots in 2012 with his strongest Denver team.

Now we go back and consider that Manning may have won in overtime with the 2005 Colts as well. Pending results of that overtime and the other runs, the 14-11 record might be 19-11 with three rings, or maybe it just falls to 14-13 with the one ring. Either way, it is much better than Manning's actual history, and all we did was change three plays in which he was helpless on the sideline.

You can try this with other plays and different quarterbacks, but the most extreme shifts in records will come with Manning and Brady due to the sheer volume of close games they have played in the postseason. Manning's wins are rock solid, but most of the one-play swings have gone against his teams.



Manning's storybook ending?


Perhaps Manning's luck is changing before our eyes. Despite suffering the worst season of his career, Manning finally has a defense that can carry him to success. If Manning can limit his mistakes in a Denver win against New England, he would finish his career with a 3-2 playoff record against Brady. Imagine if Manning wins with a mediocre effort, while Brady plays better, but loses after a late fumble by a teammate or a field goal doesn't go his way for a change.

It was then that a voice cried out, "The better quarterback lost," to which the other side responded, "That's what we've been saying for 12 years."

Should the two sides of this argument ever find peace, it will come only after acknowledging the frailty of win-loss records in the playoffs and appreciating that Manning and Brady were two of the best, making their teams relevant in many a postseason.

I have spent enough years researching the close finishes in NFL history to know that greatness in the postseason is often the combination of being very good and a little lucky. And there is no rule that luck will even itself out over a career.

 

[Skooby]

hey, repost it manually please..these links never work for me

No.

Article is too long. It will take 15 posts to complete.

 

[TrillCauleyStein]

No.

Article is too long. It will take 15 posts to complete.

ok dont post it manually, but then can you re-up that link? its not working for me.

 

[Skooby]

ok dont post it manually, but then can you re-up that link? its not working for me.

Bilas Index: Sifting through the chaos

The past fortnight has brought us some delicious developments in the game. Kansas and Oklahoma played to a near draw for 55 minutes before Kansas prevailed on the floor of Allen Fieldhouse, and Sooner Buddy Hield solidified a legitimate claim to the Wooden Award. Better yet, Hield's performance after the game was a wonderful example of grace and dignity in defeat. What a player. Syracuse coach Jim Boehiem made his return to the sidelines amid loud cheers and some jeers from those who don't get it. Arizona and USC played a four-overtime thriller in Los Angeles, and Arizona lost the game and Allonzo Trier to injury. Denzel Valentine returned to Tom Izzo's Michigan State lineup. SMU and South Carolina remain unbeaten, and LSU came back into the NCAA tournament fold after being declared dead by every amateur coroner in college basketball.

Of course, The Bilastrator foreshadowed all such happenings in The Bilas Index, which is the most steadfast, dependable and unfailing compilation of roundball deeds and exploits ever known to man. Unlike normal analytical tools and the rank guesswork of the NCAA tournament selection committee, The Bilas Index features supernatural exactness and meticulousness in the ranking of teams according to actual accomplishment to date, combined with forecasts of future performance based upon talent, coaching and collective potential that borders upon prophecy. This crystal ball-worthy look into the future is made possible only by the most powerful tool ever applied to basketball analysis: the gigantic cranium and supercharged brain of The Bilastrator himself.

So, enjoy the most accurate, reliable and trustworthy view of the landscape of college basketball: The Bilas Index. As always, you're welcome.

1. North Carolina Tar Heels
The Tar Heels are getting healthier and better by the week. It was a matter of time before they rose to No. 1 in the The Bilas Index. North Carolina scores 42.5 points per game in the paint, best in the nation. The Bilastrator told you all about Brice Johnson, who validated the high praise with a 39-point, 23-rebound performance against Florida State, becoming only the second Tar Heel to put up such numbers in a single game (Billy Cunningham is the other).

2. Kansas Jayhawks
West Virginia pressed and totally took Kansas out of what it wanted to do. After being slowed by the snow, the Jayhawks were sped up by the Mountaineers. No matter, there will be a number of different No. 1 teams, as The Bilastrator told you in November. As to the new year, The Bilastrator has but one resolution: Until someone knocks Kansas off of its lofty perch in the Big 12 and the Jayhawks finish lower than first (which hasn't happened in more than 11 years), the Big 12 shall be referred to as "The Big 1." John Gasaway made an interesting case for Kansas wing Wayne Selden Jr. to be included among the top candidates for the Wooden Award. Selden is having a great season and is the Jayhawks' top 3-point threat at 49 percent, but he might not be the best player on his own team. Frank Mason III and Perry Ellis are both overall more efficient. Still, the argument is a good one for Kansas, as the Jayhawks have so many good players performing at a high level. Kansas remains third in the nation in 3-point shooting at 45.3 percent and has six wins against BPI top-50 teams.

3. Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners continue to shoot a ridiculous 46.4 percent from 3-point range, which now leads the nation. Keep an eye on Jordan Woodard, who is not so quietly making a case for inclusion among the nation's best point guards. Woodard is shooting over 55 percent from 3-point territory, and is said to be the second-best player ever out of Edmond Memorial High School in Oklahoma. Of course, that is said by Kansas coach Bill Self, who says that he is the best player ever out of Edmond Memorial High School.

4. Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans' only loss was at Iowa with Denzel Valentine out and coach Tom Izzo mourning the loss of his father. Even with Valentine out, Michigan State continued to pass the ball, ranking second in the nation to Evansville with an assist on almost three out of four field goals. Matt Costello has been excellent, averaging more than 11 points and 12 rebounds in his past five games. Costello has improved his free throw shooting and has been a reliable anchor in the post.

5. Villanova Wildcats
When the Wildcats were being portrayed as the gang that couldn't shoot straight, The Bilastrator told you that Villanova could shoot, but needed to improve passing and shot selection. The Wildcats have had multiple games of lights-out shooting, but when shots are not falling, Jay Wright's team guards the hell out of you. Villanova is rated as the No. 12 squad in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency but is No. 2 in adjust defensive efficiency. Villanova is the best team in the Big East -- again.

6. Maryland Terrapins
The Terps are far from perfect, and have played only one team ranked in the BPI top 40. But this is a really good team. Melo Trimble continues to make the right play at the right time, and the emergence of Diamond Stone as a legit scoring threat makes Maryland a legit title contender. This team continues to get better. Maryland has beaten only two teams in the KenPom.com top 50 (Northwestern and UConn), but the eye test tells you all you need to know. The Terrapins need to take better care of the ball; they are 251st in the nation in ball security.

7. SMU Mustangs
The Ponies lost Keith Frazier when he left the team for personal reasons. Still, a shorthanded SMU continues to fight. Nic Moore leads a very good offensive team, one that is third in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, getting back 43 percent of its misses. SMU is one of only two teams in the nation to have six wins and no losses against BPI top-50 teams.

8. Xavier Musketeers
The Musketeers took a hit when Edmond Sumner went down against Villanova, but this is an outstanding team. It is one of the toughest teams The Bilastrator has seen this season, and coach Chris Mack has an excellent rebounding team. With Sumner back, Xavier is top-5 good. The Musketeers give up the fewest second-chance points in the Big East and rank second to Villanova in defensive efficiency (93.1 points per 100 possessions).

9. Duke Blue Devils
Dang, is this team resilient. After losing Amile Jefferson and getting down to only seven players, Duke continues to find ways to win. Marshall Plumlee had two straight career highs against Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, and long-armed freshman Brandon Ingram is right behind LSU's Ben Simmons as the second-best prospect in the country. Duke does not defend as well as it did at the end of last season, but that was said about that team at this time last year, too. But this team can spread you out and really score.

10. Miami Hurricanes
The Hurricanes are just a solid, experienced team with an edge. They can shoot it, and the ACC schedule sets up favorably (it's not only who you play, but when and where you play them). The loss at Virginia was not surprising, as most teams will leave Charlottesville empty-handed.

11. Virginia Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are having too many slow starts and too many defensive lapses. Earlier this season, a Virginia coach told The Bilastrator that the Cavaliers were living off of reputation on the defensive end, and that improvement was needed. Well, he was correct. Still, Virginia is fifth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, due in large measure to taking such good care of the ball. On the defensive end, UVa is ranked 38th in defense, the first time it has been outside of the top 25 in that category since 2011.

 

[Skooby]

12. Louisville Cardinals
The Cards have lost three games -- to Michigan State, Kentucky and Clemson, all on the road. Still, it is the only team in the country to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Louisville is outstanding defensively, shuttling players into the game and keeping opponents off balance with a mix of man and zone, presses and half-court defense. This not a great offensive team, but one that scraps for second shots and can score off of its defense.

13. Providence Friars
Kris Dunn is assisting on more than 49 percent of his teammates' field goals when he is on the court, the best assist rate in the nation. Ben Bentil has been outstanding, averaging 24 points and nine rebounds against Marquette and St. John's.

14. West Virginia Mountaineers
Everything West Virginia does well was evident against Kansas in Morgantown. That press is so tough, and Kansas ball handlers were unable to breathe. The Mountaineers give up 85.9 points per 100 possessions, the second-best defensive efficiency in the country behind Valparaiso. West Virginia continues to lead the nation in steals, steals percentage, turnovers forced and opponents' turnover percentage. West Virginia is unyielding, and the Mountaineers make the game ugly for you but pretty for them.

15. Pittsburgh Panthers
The Panthers average 124.2 points per 100 possessions, the second-highest offensive efficiency in the nation (Saint Mary's leads at 124.5). James Robinson leads the ACC in assist-to-turnover ratio, and has been a steady hand in Pitt's resurgence.

16. Iowa Hawkeyes
Mike Gesell is an underrated performer for the Hawkeyes, putting up 25 points against Michigan State and averaging 10 points and 6.9 assists this season.

17. Purdue Boilermakers
The Boilermakers are the only team in the nation with multiple players in the top 20 in efficiency rating and are qualified as top scorers (A.J. Hammons is 14th; Isaac Haas is 20th).

18. Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies average 113.9 points per 100 possessions, the top offensive efficiency in the SEC. Billy Kennedy's team has a legit shot to win the league.

19. Kentucky Wildcats
The Wildcats are giving up 29.1 points per game in the paint, the most in the past five seasons under John Calipari. Kentucky is not scoring efficiently from the perimeter, and has not performed at the highest level on the road. Kentucky is good and can be really good, but still has a long way to go.

20. South Carolina Gamecocks
The Gamecocks' strength of schedule is the primary criticism from those trying to suggest a 15-0 start is not all that. It is true that South Carolina's SOS is 106th in the country, but if you have watched this team play, you'll see that Frank Martin's team belongs and can hang with anyone.

21. Indiana Hoosiers
Since the loss at Duke, Indiana has won nine games in a row. Even with the loss of James Blackmon Jr. for the season, Indiana is still an NCAA tournament team and can really score. But while so many are beating up the Hoosiers over defense, note that North Carolina, SMU, Baylor and Texas are all rated below them. They are among the top-10 offensive rebounding teams in the country, too.

22. Butler Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have seen their own blood in league play but have continued to fight. Kellen Dunham has struggled from the field, and Butler is 2-4 against BPI top-50 teams, including three losses in the Big East (Providence, Villanova and Xavier).

23. Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats rank second in the Pac-12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. After losing two incredibly close games against UCLA and USC, Arizona also lost leading scorer Allonzo Trier to an injury. Trier could be out four to six weeks, which is a huge blow to Sean Miller's team.

24. Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones can score, but Iowa State has given up 98.7 points per 100 possessions, which is the worst defensive efficiency in the Big 12 (or as we call it, the Big 1).

25. UCLA Bruins
Five of UCLA's six losses have come against BPI top 100 teams. The Bruins are 5-5 against those teams. Tony Parker has an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.2, which is rated in the top 25 in the country.

26. Wichita State Shockers
Wichita State has won eight of nine, and ranks in the top five in the country in turnover percentage (25.0). The Shockers are still gang-rebounding on the defensive end, giving up second shots on only 25 percent of opponents' attempts.

27. Baylor Bears
The Bears' win at Iowa State was an indicator of what this team is capable of. Johnathan Motley was outstanding, scoring 27 points and grabbing 13 rebounds in Hilton Coliseum. Taurean Prince had 18 points and 10 rebounds and Lester Medford had 16 points and 11 assists to give Baylor three players with double-doubles in its first true road win. The Bears played zone and man, and used length and strength to beat Iowa State. They are one of the top five offensive rebounding teams in the nation, getting almost 42 percent of their misses.

28. USC Trojans
The Trojans won three of four to start Pac-12 play, which was a great start. With a midweek tilt against rival UCLA and a road swing to Oregon and Oregon State, USC can put itself in a nice position in the league standings. The Trojans have seven of their final 11 games at the Galen Center. So they have that going for them, which is nice.

29. Connecticut Huskies
The Huskies outscore opponents by 13.9 points per game in the paint, the fifth-largest paint differential among major conference teams.

30. Oregon Ducks
The Ducks beat both Cal and Stanford and got good performances from Tyler Dorsey and Dillon Brooks. Against Stanford, Oregon had 18 assists on 25 field goals. Dana Altman-coached teams usually show great improvement in this part of the season, and Oregon is looking like the rule rather than the exception.

31. Gonzaga Bulldogs
All three of Gonzaga's losses have come to teams ranked in the BPI top 50. During the Zags' seven-game winning streak, Gonzaga's opponents have an average BPI rank of 203.8. Without Przemek Karnowski, Gonzaga is smaller, and rim protection is more difficult. Dismissing this team is a mistake. Gonzaga is still Gonzaga.

 

[Skooby]

32. Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines can shoot it and do a very good job on the offensive end of the floor. However, they are not a great defensive team, ranking 237th in the nation in 3-point defense. Caris LeVert leads Michigan in scoring, rebounding and assists but has been injured. With him, Michigan can beat teams. Without him, it is in for a struggle.

33. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Irish, who got clipped at home by Pittsburgh, have proven they can score against anybody. The question is: Can they stop anyone? Notre Dame is currently rated the 214th most efficient defense in the country, ranking 322nd in 3-point defense. Still, outscoring the Irish can be difficult.

34. Utah Utes
The Utes bounced back with a win over Colorado after dropping two on a trip to Cal and Stanford. Jakob Poeltl is averaging 17 points and 9.4 rebounds and is shooting 66 percent from the field. Poeltl has a 34.2 player efficiency rating, second among major conference players behind only LSU's Ben Simmons.

35. Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats score 21 percent of their points off offensive rebounds, the highest percentage of stick-back points in the country.

36. Dayton Flyers
Dyshawn Pierre returned to the team and is working his way back into the lineup. The Flyers had won five in a row before losing to LaSalle on the road to drop to 12-3. They continue to be plagued by turnovers and spotty perimeter shooting, but this is a team full of competitors.

37. Texas Tech Red Raiders
After an 11-1 start, Texas Tech had to go to Iowa State and host Kansas, losing both games but competing favorably. The Red Raiders are solid defensively and do a good job of attacking the rim, but perimeter shooting is inconsistent. They hit only 30 percent of their 3-point field goals, 308th in the country.

38. Florida Gators
Coach Michael White has done a really nice job with this team. The Gators do not have natural scorers, but they defend, change defensive looks and battle to have a chance to win. Florida is a top-five defensive team but ranks in the bottom third of Division I in effective field goal percentage, 3-point shooting, and free throw shooting.

39. California Golden Bears
The Bears dropped a pair on the road at Oregon and Oregon State but have made significant progress. They play hard and have proven difficult to score upon inside the arc. Cal is eighth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense and leads the nation in 2-point field goal percentage defense.

40. Colorado Buffaloes
The Buffs are second in the Pac-12 in rebounding, outrebounding opponents by more than 10 per game. Big man Josh Scott is second in the league in scoring at 17.2 points per game and fourth in the Pac-12 in rebounding with 9.6 per game. Scott is one of the best and most underrated big men in the country.

41. LSU Tigers
The Bilastrator kept LSU in The Bilas Index while dirt was being thrown on the Tigers in preparation for a quick burial. But LSU climbed out of the grave with wins over Vanderbilt and Kentucky before getting clipped at Florida. If LSU defends and rebounds with the grit and togetherness shown in its first two SEC games, the Bayou Bengals will play in the NCAA tournament. Healthy now, LSU is a good team that is getting better. Ben Simmons continues to prove he is the real deal.

42. Vanderbilt Commodores
The Commodores got Luke Kornet back from an MCL injury, but the results didn't change as they lost on the road to South Carolina. Vanderbilt is falling short in several areas -- it simply needs to be tougher individually and collectively. This team is far better than its record. Wade Baldwin IV has emerged as its best player and best pro prospect.

43. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The Yellow Jackets lost a bunch of close games last season and had a brutal schedule to start ACC play this season. A weak-minded team could get a complex about such things, but Georgia Tech has played very well and has really fought. After close road losses to Pittsburgh and North Carolina, Brian Gregory's team outplayed Virginia in Atlanta in a decisive win. Adam Smith, the Virginia Tech transfer, has proven to be the ACC's most dangerous 3-point shooter, going 47 percent from deep and hitting 56 deep shots. And they are all contested.

44. Valparaiso Crusaders
Alec Peters, the smooth-shooting big man, scored 39 points and grabbed 14 rebounds against Detroit, taking home Horizon League player of the week honors. The only other two players to reach that level this season have been LSU's Ben Simmons and North Carolina's Brice Johnson.

45. Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are good but need to take better care of the ball and defend without fouling. They have not yet won a road game, losing two straight to Florida and Ole Miss.

46. Marquette Golden Eagles
Freshman Henry Ellenson continues to impress, and he is a legitimate All-American candidate. Ellenson is averaging 16 points and a Big East-leading 9.9 rebounds per game. He is the real deal.

47. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Demon Deacons have a full complement of players for the first time all season, but they have to improve their defense to reach the next level as a team. Devin Thomas is averaging a double-double in points and rebounds, and has proven to be an excellent passer when doubled in the post.

48. Kansas State Wildcats
The Wildcats started out 10-2 but dropped three straight to West Virginia, Texas and Oklahoma. They play hard, defend and rebound, but scoring is an unholy struggle. Ultimately, scoring droughts get you beat, and great defense cannot overcome it.

49. Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles have crazy talent and athleticism but, after beating Florida, lost three straight to start ACC play (Clemson, North Carolina, Miami). Florida State has not scored efficiently but also has not been as good defensively as expected.

50. Saint Mary's Gaels
The Gaels had won eight in a row before losing at Pepperdine. Shooting remains the strength of this team, with four players with 24 or more made 3-point field goals, led by Calvin Hermanson and Emmett Naar. The Gaels are a top-20 offense and are No. 2 in the nation in long-range shooting.

51. Texas Longhorns
Shaka Smart has built a great culture at Texas, but there are so many young players, and every player is new to Smart's system. Plus, with Cameron Ridley out, Texas takes a huge hit in rebounding, interior scoring and consistent rim protection. The Longhorns have given up too many offensive rebounds to opponents, something Ridley could really help with.

 

[Skooby]

52. Northwestern Wildcats
The Bilastrator gets it ... Northwestern has not beaten a team rated in the KenPom.com top 100 yet. But if you watch the Wildcats play, this is an improved team that could very well finish 9-9 or 10-8 in Big Ten play. The key will be getting a win or two against the top-tier teams and then getting the "gettables." Northwestern is capable of that, especially with Alex Olah back. A "gettable" is Wisconsin, and Northwestern got that one.

53. Creighton Bluejays
Junior point guard Maurice Watson Jr. had 27 points against Georgetown, then followed it up with 13 points and 14 assists against Seton Hall. Watson's 14 assists were the most by a Bluejay since "Crazy Ralph" Bobik in 1974. Creighton remains efficient on the offensive end but still has some issues guarding the 3-point line.

54. Arizona State Sun Devils
The Sun Devils have wins over Creighton and Texas A&M but lost the first three games of Pac-12 play to Arizona, USC and UCLA, the latter two on the road. The schedule provides a good balance of home games going forward, and Arizona State needs to take advantage of it.

55. Seton Hall Pirates
The Pirates have lost two straight, with defeats to Villanova and Creighton by a combined 24 points. It doesn't get easier for the Hall, with games against Providence, Villanova, Creighton, St. John's and Xavier coming up in short order.

56. George Washington Colonials
The Colonials are good, but the only KenPom.com top-50 win was against Virginia on Nov. 16. To gain an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, GW has to find more quality wins.

57. Oregon State Beavers
The Beavers have lost only to Stanford, Kansas and Valparaiso. Stephen Thompson Jr. is a terrific shooter and Gary Payton II is one of the best all-around guards in the country. Oregon State has taken a significant step forward under coach Wayne Tinkle.

58. Syracuse Orange
The Orange are thin along the baseline, and did some really good things against North Carolina in Jim Boeheim's return. But the schedule might be too much to overcome. Syracuse started ACC play with Pitt and Miami on the road and finish the ACC season with North Carolina and Florida State on the road. And the "one plays" are against the league's most accomplished teams: Louisville, Duke, Pitt, Virginia and Wake Forest, all on the road. Yikes.

59. Evansville Purple Aces
Senior big man Egidijus Mockevicius is averaging 17 points and 14 rebounds and is one of only a handful of players in the country who can claim such productivity. Junior guard Jaylon Brown can really attack the rim, and shoots over 63 percent from 2-point range.

60. Memphis Tigers
The defense looks good, but the offensive production and efficiency is what is holding Memphis back. The Tigers are among the bottom third of Division I in almost every shooting category.

61. VCU Rams
All of the Rams' losses have been quality losses. They have been beaten by Duke, Wisconsin, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Cincinnati, and it is clear that VCU's team is better than its record. VCU is second in the nation in steals percentage to West Virginia.

62. Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes were off to a 3-0 start in the Big Ten before getting blown out by Indiana. They are getting things done on the defensive end, but offensive production has been difficult.

63. Washington Huskies
After significant growing pains in the Bahamas tournament, the Huskies have kept plugging. Now they are 3-0 in the Pac-12, but have to hit the road against Arizona and Arizona State.

64. Clemson Tigers
The Tigers have really improved, especially in outlook. With no real home court and limited shooting and scoring, Clemson lost to North Carolina early, then reeled off three in a row against Florida State, Louisville and Syracuse. Coach Brad Brownell would not let his team quit nor give in.

65. Stony Brook Seawolves
Jameel Warney, a 6-foot-8 senior forward, is averaging 19 points and 10.7 rebounds to go with 3.3 blocked shots. Warney is a pro.

66. BYU Cougars
The Cougars are an offense-oriented team, but success in the West Coast Conference will depend on how well they defend. BYU has to pile up some quality wins; it still hasn't beaten a team rated in the top 75 of the KenPom.com ratings.

67. Monmouth Hawks
It is difficult to reconcile Monmouth's wins over UCLA, USC, Notre Dame and Georgetown with losses to Army and Canisius. But if you have seen Monmouth play, you know that this is a good team. The Hawks are excellent free throw shooters but need to rebound the ball better in conference play.

68. UT-Arlington Mavericks
The Mavericks took Texas to double overtime just before the Longhorns beat North Carolina. UT-Arlington has beaten Ohio State, Memphis and UTEP, with losses only at Texas and at Louisiana Tech. UT-Arlington's best player is 6-8 sophomore Kevin Hervey, who averages 17 points, 10 rebounds and 3 assists.

 

[FTBS]

Manning and Brady have had more than 1,000 dropbacks each in the playoffs, but six game-changing plays in which neither quarterback was on the field have shaped these records as much as anything. Close games often turn on one play. In the history of the NFL playoffs, there is no greater example than Manning when it comes to quarterbacks who get bad breaks, and no greater example than Brady when it comes to a quarterback who benefits from a teammate's triumphs.

Glad someone else has been paying attention to what actually goes on.

 

[TrillCauleyStein]

Gasaway: How can the Spartans arrest their slide?
skooby

 

[TrillCauleyStein]

Lange: Weekend's best college hoops bets
Skooby

 

[Skooby]

Lange: Weekend's best college hoops bets
Skooby

Maryland-Michigan State and other weekend college hoops best bets

#7 Maryland Terrapins at
#11 Michigan State Spartans
(6:30 p.m., ESPN)

Projected Line: Michigan State -3.5
Projected Total: 140

Now that conference play is in full swing, there's a fine line between winning and losing. Maryland hit a last-second shot to beat Wisconsin, trailed Michigan by double-digits in the second half only to lose by three, and needed overtime to slip past Northwestern. It was a similar situation, minus the favorable outcomes, for Michigan State -- with back-to-back one-point losses to Wisconsin and Nebraska.

The sky is not falling in East Lansing, Michigan, though a few key injuries and the increased reliance on (and minutes of) Denzel Valentine are a concern. Opponents are starting to take a page out of Tom Izzo's book by attacking the Spartans off the dribble. The Badgers got to the line 36 times and Nebraska shot 25-of-44 (56.8 percent) from two-point range in their respective victories against Michigan State. Can that be shored up in time for ultra-quick Maryland guards Melo Trimble and Rasheed Sulaimon?

CBB PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter

The Terps aren't without flaws of their own, as they've struggled to hang on to the basketball with a 19.1 percent TO rate vs. Big Ten teams -- and on top of that, they don't possess the most efficient offense. They made only 21 buckets at home against Northwestern, but Maryland was saved by a 16-of-19 to 5-of-12 free throw advantage. My gut says Sparty is the right side, given the adjusted price (they were -9 vs. Iowa a week ago), but I also think Maryland has better the personnel overall from 1 through 7.

The pick: lean Michigan State at -3 or less

#1 Oklahoma Sooners at #13 Baylor Bears
(noon, ESPN)

Projected Line: Oklahoma -1
Projected Total: 150

I have Oklahoma and Villanova as my top two power-rated teams and, needless to say, I didn't downgrade the Sooners for last Monday's loss at Iowa State. Ryan Spangler and Jordan Woodard shot a combined 3-for-15 from the floor for seven points, and the team attempted only seven free throws -- and Oklahoma still had a lead at Hilton Coliseum with less than five minutes to go.

Baylor, meanwhile, was somewhat written off after blowout losses at Texas A&M and Kansas. The Bears have responded with five straight wins and a 4-1 ATS mark since losing 102-74 in Lawrence, Kansas. Scott Drew's group currently ranks first in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency at 1.15 points per possession, but unlike the rest of the league, Baylor prefers to play at a more moderate pace.

How well Baylor's zone handles Oklahoma's perimeter shooters -- most notably Buddy Hield -- will go a long way towards determining both the side and total. The Sooners are shooting a ridiculous 45 percent from deep this season, and they were able to hang at Iowa State thanks to a 17 of 32 effort. The two teams split last season, but Baylor was able to keep both meetings below 65 possessions, one of which was its 69-58 win in Waco, Texas. Look for them to try to control pace once again Saturday.

The pick: lean under

#6 West Virginia Mountaineers at
Texas Tech Red Raiders
(1 p.m., ESPNews)

Projected Line: West Virginia -5
Projected Total: 140

West Virginia has suffered back-to-back losses, the most recent of which was an ugly 56-49 affair at home to Texas on Wednesday. The first thing you'll notice in the box score was that the Longhorns committed only eight turnovers, which played a big part in being such a low possession game (with 58 in total). It was a brutal spot for West Virginia after two meat grinders against Kansas and Oklahoma, but also a good indication that when they don't force turnovers at a 30 percent rate, the Mountaineers go from great to so-so in a hurry.

Last season, West Virginia won and covered both meetings against Texas Tech; 77-58 (-17.5) in Morgantown, West Virginia, and 78-67 (-6) in Lubbock, Texas. The storyline was, of course, turnovers, as the Red Raiders coughed it up 48 times in those two games. Tech has been much better at holding on to the ball this season, averaging 12 turnovers per game. Last season, they were 10th in the Big 12 at a 22.9 percent TO rate; through six conference games this campaign, the Red Raiders are at a more respectable 17.8 percent. That, of course, doesn't include the two upcoming meetings vs. Bob Huggins' squad.

A year wiser and playing at home, Texas Tech shouldn't be completely overwhelmed by "Press Virginia," and when you avoid huge amounts of turnovers, West Virginia's games tend to be lower-scoring.

The pick: lean under (140 or more)

UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks
(4 p.m., CBS)

Projected Line: Oregon -9
Projected Total: 157.5

Oregon had a unique opening to Pac-12 play, with games against Oregon State, California, Stanford and Utah. Compared to the rest of the Pac-12, those four teams tend to play at a more moderate pace. Then the Ducks played back-to-back games against Colorado and USC, who don't mind running up and down the floor, and the end result was game totals of 178 and 170.

UCLA certainly qualifies as a team that likes to push the pace, with its past five Pac-12 games hitting 155 or more. Earlier in the week the Bruins talked about trying to shore up what has been a porous defense, and they lived up to their word by holding Oregon State to 73 points in a 9-point win in Corvallis, Oregon, on Wednesday. The stakes will be much higher in Eugene, Oregon, though, as Oregon is far more capable with the ball.

The lone issue with wanting to play the over in this game is market cooperation. Oregon's game against USC opened 154.5, got bet up to 160 and closed 157.5. Everyone who steamed that game off the opener obviously won, and they'll be chomping at the bit for another taste. Playing games over 160 in conference play can be tricky, but anything less is worth a bet.

The pick: over

Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans at
UT-Arlington Mavericks
(8:15 p.m.)

Projected Line: UT-Arlington -3
Projected Total: 131

Here's a game that won't be on many people's radar, but it has the makings of a classic. Arkansas-Little Rock is off to a surprising 16-2 start under first-year head coach Chris Beard, and from the start he got his team to buy in to slowing down the pace of games and guarding with reckless abandon. It's resulted in impressive non-conference road wins against San Diego State, Tulsa and DePaul. The Trojans are 13th in the country in defensive efficiency (0.92 PPP allowed) and 347th in pace (63 possessions per game). UT-Arlington, under longtime head coach Scott Cross, is the complete opposite as one of the fastest teams in the country, at more than 73 possessions per game.

While UALR won't be baited into a track meet, the Trojans have shown signs of pace and offensive life in conference play. Against UL-Lafayette, Appalachian State, and Arkansas State -- the three fastest teams in the Sun Belt behind UTA -- Little Rock's game scores were 132, 136, and 149, and two of the three games went over 70 possessions.

UT-Arlington played a similar slow-down, defensive-minded team in Georgia State at home earlier this season, and rolled to an 85-70 win. This one won't hit 155, but it should make its way into the mid-to-high 130s. Keep an eye on the status of UTA's Kevin Hervey (18.1 ppg), who missed Thursday's game after tweaking his knee during warmups. His absence didn't impact the Mavericks in their blowout win against Arkansas State, but he'll be needed against UALR.

The pick: over

 

[Alexander The Great]

Should Cavs trade Kyrie Irving for Chris Paul?

 

[TrillCauleyStein]

thx breh
Tuesday Truths: The secret to Texas A&M's success