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Skooby

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lol. skawildcat you do need to participate in the other parts of the forum. I'm not posting everything and not everyday. I never intended on posting everyday and I won't.

I'm only posting one:

West Coast showcases: Lonzo Ball shines in Long Beach

It was wheels up to Las Vegas on Saturday for the Phase1 Hoops Top 40 Showcase to check out the up-and-coming talent in Sin City. Local talents like Troy Brown, Charles O'Bannon Jr. and Markus Howard were not available for the event, but there were a plethora of intriguing underclassmen, most notably in the class of 2019. After a short stint in Las Vegas it was wheels down to Long Beach for the Ron Massey Memorial Fall Hoops Classic, where close to 40 Division I prospects competed with their respective high school teams:

Lonzo was 'Ball-in' in Long Beach
Lonzo Ball, No. 11 in the ESPN 100, took home MVP honors in the 2nd Annual Ron Massey Memorial Fall Hoops Classic. The future UCLA Bruin impacts the game like few other prospects in the national class of 2016. His passes in transition are reminiscent of former North Carolina standout and current Philadelphia 76er Kendall Marshall, but there is so much more to his game than what Marshall brings to the table.

Ball is arguably the best rebounder at his size in the country and his instincts and active hands on defense are peerless. In a semifinal tilt against Sierra Canyon, Ball found his team down 13 with roughly six minutes to go against the likes of ESPN Super 60 talents Cody Riley and Ira Lee, as well as a lightning-quick backcourt of Devearl Ramsey and Remy Martin. However, after a couple of deep 3s, a slashing drive, as well as a couple of clutch assists (one of which was to his brother Li Angelo Ball for the game- winner), Ball was the catalyst for what was one of the more startling comebacks in recent memory.



Five Observations

1. Bishop Montgomery boasts one of the more talented perimeter attacks in the west in juniors Jordan Schakel and Ethan Thompson (the brother of Oregon State freshman Stephen Thompson Jr.) as well as sophomore sensation David Singleton. All three can nail jump shots from deep and their respective basketball IQs are high. Schakel compares favorably to current NBA player Landry Fields (Toronto Raptors) as well as former NBA sharpshooter Jason Kapono.

2. There might not be a more explosive scorer in the west than ESPN Super 60 prospect Charles O'Bannon Jr. He has that prototypical wing-type frame with very long arms and he can convert shots from all three levels. UCLA, Washington, NC State, California, Kansas, Arizona, and UNLV are heavily involved with O'Bannon Jr., the son of the former UCLA star.

3. Redondo Union High School coach Reggie Morris Jr. is known for developing late-blooming guard-types -- Russell Westbrook and Delon Wright come immediately to mind. Next on the Morris Jr. conveyor belt are fast-rising seniorMorgan Means as well as sharpshooting junior Ryse Williams. Means doesn't have any offers as of yet, but if he continues his improvement there should be schools at the Division I level that will take a peek at this wiry combo-guard with a solid stroke.

4. Long Beach Poly didn't have two of their starters, as 6-7 junior Myles Johnson was nursing an injury and Drew Buggs was on an official visit to Hawaii. However, that didn't stop 6-6 rugged 4-man Zafir Williams and slick sophomore Darryl Polk from leading the Jackrabbits to the championship. Williams is a tough matchup due to his physicality and soft shooting touch while Polk is right there with the quickest guards in Southern California.

5. Sierra Canyon is blessed with a plethora of talent, most of which resides in the class of 2017. ESPN 60 forward Ira Lee and fast-rising point guard Remy Martin put together dazzling performances during the event. Lee is a productive 4-man who can finish with either hand, rebounds in and out of his area and boasts a smooth shooting touch out to the elbow, while Martin dazzled the crowd with his explosive moves to the rim and a much-improved 3-point shooting touch.



Phase1 Hoops notebook

The city of Las Vegas' class of 2019 is looking promising, with the likes of 6-3 Jace Roquemore (Foothill), 6-0 Nick Blake (Shadow Ridge), and 6-2 Sedrick Hammonds (Clark) all emerging. All three possess Division I potential due to their lengthy frames, solid ball skills, and an innate ability to get their teammates involved with the pass. Also, keep an eye on an intriguing 8th grader in 6-4 Julian Strawther. Strawther has a sinewy frame, evolving ball skills, and he's athletic.

Although most of the young talent resided in Las Vegas, there were a trio of California underclassmen who exhibited Division I potential in sophomores Jordan Campbell (a 6-1 lefty who can score) and Jonathan Ned (a 6-6, willowy 4-man who can pass) as well as 6-1 freshman scorer Makani Whiteside.

On the recruiting front, ESPN Super 60 prospect Troy Brown has unofficial visits to Stanford and Cal at the end of this month, as well as to Arizona and Utah in October.
 

Skooby

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Duke tops NCAA tournament leaderboard since 2000
Surely the ultimate measure of any program is winning the ultimate prize, a national title. And just in case you need a refresher, UCLA is still the all-time leader there. Bruins, I salute you!
Now, about the more recent past...
Connecticut and Duke have each claimed three championships since 2000, and in fact with with the Huskies also notching a title in 1999 (over the Blue Devils, naturally), UConn has won four of the last 17 national championships. That's a pretty good hit rate. Huskies, I salute you too!
Which brings me to the next order of business. Since you likely already know about both John Wooden and UConn's untrammeled national-title hegemony over the last decade-and-a-half, I thought it would be worthwhile to take a closer look at tournament performance for all teams since 2000. How successful has the Division I membership been at winning tournament games this millennium?
Here is every team that's won at least one NCAA tournament game since 2000, ranked according to number of victories. Ties were broken according to number of national titles:
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1. Duke Blue Devils (40 wins)
National titles: 2001, 2010, 2015
All hail Mike Krzyzewski, who's long been flexible in terms of X's and O's and now has shown that he too can "go Calipari" and win with multiple one-and-done stars. One more thing: I must warn you to be very afraid of any Duke team seeded on the top line. The Blue Devils are 32-6 this century as a top seed, but just 8-7 as a No. 2 (four times), 3 (2003 and 2014), or 6 (2007).
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2. Michigan State Spartans (40 wins)
National title: 2000
Tom Izzo has won 40 times since 2000 with an average seed position of 5.2. Repeat: Izzo, in an average 21st century tournament, has a No. 5 seed, yet here he is at the top of this list. Kansas, conversely, hasn't even been seeded as low as No. 5 one time since 2001. When March comes around, Tom Izzo is not like other coaches.
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3. Kansas Jayhawks (39 wins)
National title: 2008
When you're in a March Madness "drought" yet you're still effectively tied with the national leaders for tournament wins since 2000, life is, all things being equal, pretty good. Kansas hasn't been to the second weekend of the tournament since 2013, but we've seen stretches like this before from every program at the top of this list: Michigan State was absent from the Sweet 16 in 2006 and 2007, and the same was true of Duke in 2007 and 2008. KU shall return, too.
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4. North Carolina Tar Heels (36 wins)
National titles: 2005, 2009
Don't bet against Roy Williams if the Tar Heels live up to their expectations this season and make it to a national semifinal in Houston in April. As head coach at UNC, Williams is 4-1 in Final Four and national title games.
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5. Kentucky Wildcats (36 wins)
National title: 2012
Kentucky missed the tournament entirely in 2013 and the Wildcats have won "just" (ha) one national title this century, but the essentials of this situation should not be mistaken. UK's consistency in the tournament in the era of John Calipari has been extraordinary. Since Calipari took the helm in 2009-10, Kentucky has won 22 tournament games. No other Division I program over that span comes close. (Duke has won 17.)
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6. Florida Gators (33 wins)
National titles: 2006, 2007
Billy Donovan has moved on to the NBA, taking with him an incredible record of March and April success. From the opening tip of Florida's game against South Alabama in the 2006 round of 64, Donovan and his Gators went 25-5 in the NCAA tournament. To say these are large shoes for new coach Mike White to fill would be putting it mildly.
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7. Connecticut Huskies (32 wins)
National titles: 2004, 2011, 2014
UConn's national title runs in 2011 and 2014 earned the Huskies a well-deserved reputation for being clutch, but even Connecticut fans have known March heartbreak this millennium. In fact if not for the George Mason miracle of 2006 and the stunning loss to San Diego in the 2008 round of 64 (both games went to OT), UConn's win total would be higher still.
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8. Wisconsin Badgers (29 wins)
Speaking purely in terms of this century with both halves of the following statement, the Badgers are the most successful program yet to win a national title. Few observers could have foreseen the first half of that statement 16 years ago. (And as to the second, Wisconsin did win a title in 1941.)
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9. Arizona Wildcats (28 wins)
For a team that's this high on this list, the Wildcats will be forgiven for thinking the hoops gods owe them a good turn for a change. In its last five Elite Eight appearances, Arizona is 0-5. Those losses came by an average of 2.8 points per game, and two of those regional finals went to overtime.
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10. Louisville Cardinals (27 wins)
National title: 2013
In case you haven't noticed, the Cardinals have reached each of the last four Sweet 16s and three of the last four Elite Eights. Furthermore Rick Pitino's in a groove in which he either loses to a fellow legend (Calipari in 2012 and 2014; Izzo in 2015) or he doesn't lose, period (2013).
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11. UCLA Bruins (25 wins)
Somehow UCLA continues to personify unrealized potential in the common hoops mind despite the fact that the Bruins have now reached eight Sweet 16s since 2000. If you're keeping track, Steve Alford has four tournament wins so far in Westwood, Ben Howland recorded 15, and Steve Lavin won six times between 2000 and 2002.
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12. Syracuse Orange (24 wins)
National title: 2003
In tournament terms, Syracuse is the anti-Duke (see above). The Orange won a national title as a No. 3 seed in 2003 and reached the Final Four as a No. 4 in 2013. But when seeded on the top line this century, Jim Boeheim's team is just 3-2 after the round of 64. (And even the game against No. 16 seed UNC Asheville in 2012 was no walk in the park.)
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13. Ohio State Buckeyes (20 wins)
At this rate, the Buckeyes, with their 20 tournament wins since 2000, will never catch Thad Matta, who has 24 over that same span (one at Butler, five at Xavier and 18 at OSU).
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14. Gonzaga Bulldogs (19 wins)
For a West Coast Conference program to rank here is remarkable, yet the Zags are often faulted as a basketball powerhouse that's never made a Final Four. Be that as it may, when you've won at least one tournament game every March since 2008, it adds up.
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15. Texas Longhorns (19 wins)
Between 2003 and 2008 the Longhorns made three Elite Eights and one Final Four (2003), but a great run a decade ago wasn't enough for Rick Barnes to be retained in Austin. Shaka Smart (see below, "eight wins") is now in charge at UT.
18 wins
Maryland Terrapins

National title: 2002Butler Bulldogs
Maryland will be really, really highly ranked this preseason, and the Terrapins were also really, really good at the start of this century. From 2000 through the 2004 tournament, only Duke and Kansas won more tournament games (16 and 15, respectively) than did the Terps (14).
17 wins
Illinois Fighting Illini
Xavier Musketeers

Illinois occasionally gets a name-check as the winningest program in NCAA tournament history never to record a national title, but here's trivia guaranteed to amaze your friends. The Illini once posted an 0-2 record in a single tournament. Impossible you say? Not in an era of eight-team brackets and third-place games.
16 wins
Memphis Tigers
Pittsburgh Panthers

This is indeed the correct number for Memphis if you've been watching tournament games and keeping track in real time, but go ahead and subtract the five wins from 2008 if you're familiar with the NCAA's thoughts on this matter. Under Josh Pastner the Tigers are 2-4 with seeds ranging from Nos. 6 to 12.
15 wins
Oklahoma Sooners

OU waited six long years for its first tournament wins since the Blake Griffin days, but now that the Sooners have cracked that barrier they may be ready to move up on this list. This season Lon Kruger returns reigning Big 12 player of the year Buddy Hield and three other starters.
14 wins
Villanova Wildcats
West Virginia Mountaineers

On April 4, 2009, No. 3 seed Villanova lost to overall No. 1 seed North Carolina in the Final Four, having already defeated a different top seed (Pittsburgh) and a No. 2 (Duke) just to make it that far. Since that day, however, the Wildcats are 3-5 in the tournament even though Jay Wright's men haven't faced a single opponent seeded higher than No. 7.
13 wins
Marquette Golden Eagles
Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee is the highest-ranked program on this list to have won a tournament game prior to the round of 64. The Vols beat Iowa 78-65 in overtime in the 2014 round of 68.
12 wins
Indiana Hoosiers
Purdue Boilermakers

With all due apologies to this premise of these rankings, the key date for Indiana occurred not in 2000 but six years earlier. From 1940 through 1994 IU was 50-17 in the NCAA tournament, with five national titles. Since 1995, conversely, the Hoosiers are 14-15, even with the program's run to the 2002 national championship game.
11 wins
Georgetown Hoyas
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Stanford Cardinal

Presenting your odd genealogical fact of the day: Sean and Archie Miller are 11-0 lifetime as head coaches against Stanford, including Archie-led Dayton's 82-72 win over the Cardinal in the 2014 Sweet 16.
10 wins
Cincinnati Bearcats
Michigan Wolverines
NC State Wolfpack
Oregon Ducks

Oregon's part of a rarefied group that excludes Duke and Kentucky but includes Michigan State, Kansas, North Carolina, Arizona, Louisville, Gonzaga, Wichita State and San Diego State. Tip your cap to the nine Division I programs that have won at least one game in each of the last three tournaments.
Nine wins
Missouri Tigers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Wichita State Shockers

Who knew the showdown in the 2015 Sweet 16 between the Irish and the Shockers was really all about supremacy on this list? Mike Brey's guys prevailed 81-70, allowing them to draw even with WSU and Mizzou.
Eight wins
Baylor Bears
Iowa State Cyclones
VCU Rams
Washington Huskies

Scott Drew's Bears are mighty in recent even-numbered years, having compiled all eight of these wins in 2010 (three), 2012 (three) and 2014 (two). Georgia State and R.J. Hunter were smart to catch these guys in 2015, but watch out for BU next March.
Seven wins
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
LSU Tigers

What eerily similar bedfellows, right down to the respective glory days as NBA launching pads, Final Four appearances in the mid-aughts (2004 for the Yellow Jackets and 2006 for the Tigers) and current droughts between tournament wins. (it's been since 2009 for LSU and 2010 for Georgia Tech).
Six wins
Boston College Eagles
Dayton Flyers
Kansas State Wildcats
San Diego State Aztecs
Temple Owls
Texas A&M Aggies
USC Trojans
Utah Utes
Wake Forest Demon DeaconsWake Forest Demon

All of the wins recorded by Dayton, Kansas State and San Diego State this century occurred after BC posted its last one, in 2007.
Five wins
Alabama Crimson Tide
George Mason Patriots
Miami (FL) Hurricanes
Southern Illinois Salukis
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Vanderbilt Commodores

Jim Larranaga dominates this group, having personally accounted for all five of George Mason's wins (the 2006 Final Four run and another victory in 2011) and two of Miami's (2013).
Four wins
BYU Cougars
California Golden Bears
Creighton Bluejays
Kent State Golden Flashes
Ole Miss Rebels
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Nevada Wolf Pack
Saint Joseph's Hawks
UAB Blazers
Virginia Cavaliers
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Saint Joe's is the only team here to have reached an Elite Eight this century. Jameer Nelson and the Hawks, a somewhat controversial No. 1 seed in 2004, made the committee look good and reached the regional final before falling to No. 2 seed Oklahoma State 64-62.
Three wins
Auburn Tigers
Davidson Wildcats
Florida State Seminoles
La Salle Explorers
Milwaukee Panthers
Northern Iowa Panthers
Ohio Bobcats
Saint Louis Billikens
Saint Mary's Gaels
Seton Hall Pirates
Siena Saints
Texas Tech Red Raiders
UNLV Rebels
Washington State Cougars

All three of Davidson's wins came in 2008, when Stephen Curry led Bob McKillop's Wildcats to the Elite Eight and gave eventual champion Kansas a far tougher challenge (KU 59, Davidson 57) than what the Jayhawks received in their next game from overall No. 1 seed North Carolina (KU 84, UNC 66).
Two wins
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arkansas Razorbacks
Bradley Braves
Bucknell Bison
Cornell Big Red
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
Georgia State Panthers
Hampton Pirates
Harvard Crimson
Iowa Hawkeyes
Morehead State Eagles
Murray State Racers
New Mexico Lobos
Northwestern State Demons
Pacific Tigers
Penn State Nittany Lions
Richmond Spiders
South Florida Bulls
Vermont Catamounts
UNC Asheville Bulldogs

Five of these teams at least had the good promotional sense to focus their two wins into a single run to the Sweet 16: Penn State (2001), Bradley (2006), Cornell (2010), Richmond (2011) and Florida Gulf Coast (2013).
One win in the round of 64
Central Michigan Chippewas
(2003)Charlotte 49ers(2001)Cleveland State Vikings(2009)Colorado Buffaloes(2012)Colorado State Rams(2013)DePaul Blue Demons(2004)Fresno State Bulldogs(2001)George Washington Colonials(2006)Georgia Bulldogs(2002)Indiana State Sycamores(2001)Lehigh Mountain Hawks(2012)Manhattan Jaspers(2004)Mercer Bears(2014)Minnesota Golden Gophers(2013)Montana Grizzlies(2006)Norfolk State Spartans (2012)North Dakota State Bison(2014)Old Dominion Monarchs(2010)Pepperdine Waves(2000)St John's Red Storm(2000)San Diego Toreros(2008)Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks(2014)UNC Wilmington Seahawks(2002)Utah State Aggies(2001)Winthrop Eagles(2007)Wyoming Cowboys(2002)
I dare say if you're going to win just one NCAA tournament game in program history (so far), Norfolk State, Lehigh and Mercer have gone about it in rather earth-shaking ways. NSU defeated No 2 seed Missouri in the 2012 round of 64. As for the Mountain Hawks and the Bears, both programs are undefeated in their respective tournament lifetimes against a certain opponent listed above at No. 1.
One win prior the round of 64
Albany Great Danes
(2014)Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions(2010)Cal Poly Mustangs(2014)Clemson Tigers(2011)Florida A&M Rattlers(2004)James Madison Dukes(2013)Monmouth Hawks(2006)Mount St Mary's Mountaineers(2008)Niagara Purple Eagles(2007)North Carolina A&T Aggies(2013)Oakland Golden Grizzlies(2005)Robert Morris Colonials(2015)Texas San Antonio Roadrunners(2011)
Behold Clemson, the lone occupant of a rather strange mezzanine in between the other 67 major-conference teams on this list and the seven big-league programs yet to win a tournament game of any kind this century: Nebraska, Northwestern, Oregon State, Providence, Rutgers, South Carolina and TCU.
 

Skooby

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John Wall is elite, but could be an MVP candidate with improvements
Sometimes we expect so much from a player that when he actually fulfills his potential, we almost take him for granted. We might have done this with Washington Wizards point guard John Wall.
With Wall leading the way, the Wizards gradually have climbed the ranks in the NBA. Washington finished No. 27 in per-possession efficiency in 2011-12. They've climbed a few rungs each season, finishing No. 12 in 2014-15.
Wall has made a couple of All-Star teams during that climb, but in a league cluttered with top-level point guards, he's gotten shockingly little acclaim. Despite his individual improvement and that of his team, Wall has yet to be named to any of the league's three annual All-NBA teams. He hasn't garnered a single MVP vote.
Wall's game is safely of All-Star quality player, both in perception and reality. When we talk of a player of his caliber getting to the next level, and doing the requisite nitpicking of his game to prove the point, we're talking shades of greatness. The "next level" is different for most players. For Wall, it's about moving from the outstanding to the elite.
From an All-Star to an MVP candidate
So what does John Wall have to do to enter that conversation?
Where he's at: Injuries limited Wall to 49 games in 2012-13, but his per-possession performance climbed to All-Star level that year, with an individual winning percentage of .597. He replicated his winning percentage the following season (.594), but did it over 82 games and moved to 17th in the league in WARP.
Last season, he climbed to No. 11, marking him in my tier system as an upper-tier starter. RPM backs up WARP's confidence in Wall, rating him in the 96th percentile last season.
When it comes to strengths, Wall does it on both ends of the floor. On offense, he's jet-fast and can create shots for himself at will. But he's a bonafide point guard and the Wizards' offense functions off of his playmaking ability. As his decision-making has improved over his career, Wall has become one of the league's best passers. He assisted on 12.7 percent of Washington's possessions when he was on the floor last season, marking a career high.
That rate put him in the 99th percentile of all players, but he'd been in the 98th percentile during the two seasons before that. Last season, he reached double digits by averaging an even 10 assists per game.
With next-level metrics from the NBA's SportVu tracking system, Wall's passing acumen is verified. Last season, Wall averaged .196 scoring plays per pass. (Derived from SportVu data, a scoring play is the sum of a player's traditional assists, secondary assists and free throw assists.) That ranked third in the league last season. Wall's ability to create for himself and his teammates is reflected in his elite-level offensive RPM. In the multi-year flavor of that metric, Wall's plus-3.59 puts him in the top 4 percent of all offensive players in the league.
Wall earned a second-team All-Defense selection last season, his first postseason honor as a pro. His defensive RPM (2014-15 only) reached plus-1.73. That in itself put Wall in the top 13 percent of league defenders, but he ranked fourth among point guards.
He annually finishes in the top 10 percent of all players in steal rate and his metrics against shooters were vastly improved in 2014-15. While Wall's individual defensive profile falls short of elite, the Wizards have been a top-10 defensive team in each of the past three seasons and reached No. 5 in 2014-15.
Areas of improvement
Shot selection:
Now we begin the nitpicking. Wall's true shooting percentage is always right around the league median and his effective field-goal percentage fares worse, usually ranking in about the 40th percentile. Wall just isn't a natural shooter. His free throw percentage, usually around 78 to 80 percent, is very good but it's not elite. He's well below average as a 3-point shooter. His 30 percent mark last season was actually the second-best of his career.
That said, Wall can improve his scoring efficiency by taking better shots. Some of this can come from simple recognition. For whatever reason, Wall struggles to shoot corner 3s. It's not a huge part of his arsenal as he's usually handling the ball out top.
But sometimes Washington will run a play to exploit a matchup that leaves Wall spotting up on the weak side. He's taken 85 corner 3s over the past two seasons, per NBA.com/stats, ranking in the 8th percentile over that span in terms of accuracy. Ideally, Wall would either become better at that shot, or stop taking them.
The other area where Wall can improve shot selection is by taking fewer bail-out shots at the end of the shot clock. However, that is likely a team-level problem. Per Synergy, only three players were involved in more late-clock plays than Wall's 219 last season. Of the 11 players who had at least 185, Wall easily had the lowest field-goal percentage on those plays, and also had the highest turnover rate. The Wizards need to push the early offense envelope more often to keep this from happening.
Reduce turnovers: Great passers make turnovers. It's really as simple as that. However, 8.3 percent of Wall's turnovers last season came in those late-clock situations. I watched them all and what typically happened was unsurprising.
Too often, Wall would be forced to create something at the last second and when he couldn't get a look at the basket, he'd try a needle-thread pass to create something from nothing. This is another area where if Washington pushed the tempo and emphasized early offense, the Wizards, and Wall, would be more efficient.
Rebounding: OK, this is really nitpicking. Wall has averaged more than four rebounds per game in every season of his career. The Wizards have ranked in the top 10 in defensive rebound percentage the past three seasons and were No. 3 in 2014-15. Over that span, Washington's defensive rebound rate has been 0.3 percent better with Wall on the floor, per NBA.com/stats. Nevertheless, some SportVu tracking data suggests Wall could be more competitive on the boards and become a more consistent triple-double threat.
With a little manipulation of SportVu's data on contested rebounds I derived a metric that estimates how often a player was involved in contested rebounds, and how many of those instances he came away with the ball. Wall's contested rebound success rate over the past two seasons has been 15.9 percent, putting him in the 10th percentile league-wide.
Wall has had three career triple-doubles. While the significance of triple-doubles is vastly overrated, they can attract the attention of awards voters. So he just needs to get a little meaner when mixing it up on the glass.
Defending isolations: Wall carries a lot of team defensive responsibility. Nevertheless, of 33 players in the league who faced at least 90 isolations last season (per Synergy), just two allowed more points per play against isos. I watched about half of them and there is no real pattern. Often, Wall simply ventured too far away from his man when helping.
Either he'd give up an open look on a jumper, or he'd close hard and his man would go right by him. Sometimes he'd be shading a player to his weak hand and the big help defender he was probably expecting never arrived. His metrics in this area have been sliding each season, so it is something that bears watching. But this might be just by-product of Washington's defensive design.
Adding it all up
To put numbers to these observations, let's recalculate Wall's 2014-15 WARP by giving him a modest improvement in the areas we've highlighted, and a slight bump in defensive rating for better iso defense.
Those slight upgrades bump Wall's WARP to 13.7, which would have ranked No. 8 in the league. That's just a three-place jump but a crucial one. With a good-shooting season, from there he'd likely jump into the top five, and into the MVP conversation. There's a fine-line between really good and elite. Wall is one of the few players in position to cross it.
 

Lucky_Lefty

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Defining what makes up a top recruiting class is not always as obvious it might seem. Case in point: the North Carolina Tar Heels.

The Tar Heels’ 2015 class, which consists of wing Kenny Williams (No. 84 in the ESPN 100) and four-man Luke Maye (No. 97) -- was ranked No. 33 nationally. That might seem like a low rank for a program of UNC’s tradition, but it’s important to understand what went into those two signings.

The Heels -- who are going to start the season ranked in the top three nationally -- have a roster full of returning talent, and did not have many 2015 openings. There is a notion of “cap room” which the top programs must consider -- the puzzle that is graduating seniors, transfers both in and out, and the unpredictable nature of one-and-dones.

UNC identified players who would fit into that framework, bringing in two prospects who are talented, tough and will contribute over time.

With three seniors about to depart (Marcus Paige, Joel James, Brice Johnson) and Justin Jackson and Kennedy Meeks a possibility to leave early after next season, the Tar Heels’ 2016 class figures to consist of more traditional star power -- and also figures to help the ACC’s overall (and already high) quotient of young talent.

With that in mind let's take a conference-by-conference look at the 2016 recruiting landscape, identifying some of the leagues that are striking early on the trail, and those that have more work to do:

Stars are out in ACC’s 2016 class
The ACC has the most ESPN 100 players committed at 15, including a nation-high five inside the top 25.

Duke has two of those five locked up, in ESPN No. 2 Jayson Tatum and No. 14 Frank Jackson. That tandem will give Mike Krzyzewski plenty of offensive scoring punch. Tatum and Jackson are perimeter players who can make shots and thrive in either an uptempo style or with pace in the halfcourt. With their positional size and high-level skill, the duo will keep the floor spread and help win games for the Blue Devils. It’s worth noting that No. 1 Harry Giles is also considering Duke.

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On The Trail
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Recruiting snapshot: ACC solid, Big 12 shaky
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Biancardi ranks conference recruiting efforts
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    Paul Biancardi, Basketball Recruiting
Defining what makes up a top recruiting class is not always as obvious it might seem. Case in point: the North Carolina Tar Heels.

The Tar Heels’ 2015 class, which consists of wing Kenny Williams (No. 84 in the ESPN 100) and four-man Luke Maye (No. 97) -- was ranked No. 33 nationally. That might seem like a low rank for a program of UNC’s tradition, but it’s important to understand what went into those two signings.

The Heels -- who are going to start the season ranked in the top three nationally -- have a roster full of returning talent, and did not have many 2015 openings. There is a notion of “cap room” which the top programs must consider -- the puzzle that is graduating seniors, transfers both in and out, and the unpredictable nature of one-and-dones.

UNC identified players who would fit into that framework, bringing in two prospects who are talented, tough and will contribute over time.

With three seniors about to depart (Marcus Paige, Joel James, Brice Johnson) and Justin Jackson and Kennedy Meeks a possibility to leave early after next season, the Tar Heels’ 2016 class figures to consist of more traditional star power -- and also figures to help the ACC’s overall (and already high) quotient of young talent.

With that in mind let's take a conference-by-conference look at the 2016 recruiting landscape, identifying some of the leagues that are striking early on the trail, and those that have more work to do:

Stars are out in ACC’s 2016 class
The ACC has the most ESPN 100 players committed at 15, including a nation-high five inside the top 25.

Duke has two of those five locked up, in ESPN No. 2 Jayson Tatum and No. 14 Frank Jackson. That tandem will give Mike Krzyzewski plenty of offensive scoring punch. Tatum and Jackson are perimeter players who can make shots and thrive in either an uptempo style or with pace in the halfcourt. With their positional size and high-level skill, the duo will keep the floor spread and help win games for the Blue Devils. It’s worth noting that No. 1 Harry Giles is also considering Duke.

Dennis Smith Jr. -- the highest-rated prospect to attend NC State in decades. Smith is currently rehabbing an ACL tear, but is expected to make a full recovery and is explosive, strong with the ball and can get into the lane at will to score or find open teammates. Smith scores, creates fouls and hands out assists with regularity.

Virginia continues to land high-quality talent under Tony Bennett, as the Cavaliers will bring in three ESPN 100 recruits. Their top recruit, ESPN No. 25 Kyle Guy, had a tremendous summer and is up for Mr. Basketball in the state of Indiana.

Elsewhere in the league, Florida State has a talented three-man class led by ESPN No. 10 Jonathan Isaac, who is oozing with upside; Syracuse brings in a pair of prospects who can help immediately in Tyus Battle (ESPN No. 36) and Matt Moyer (No. 54); Louisville is bringing in athletic wing V.J. King (No. 27) who can influence the game with his scoring, and North Carolina has a terrific post player in Tony Bradley (No. 26), who rebounds with two hands and has post moves to score.

Big Ten heating up
The Big Ten is hot. In a span of four days beginning last Friday, the league landed four ESPN 100 players: No. 29 Cassius Winston(Michigan State), No. 100 Lamar Stevens(Penn State), No. 55 Curtis Jones (Indiana) and No. 33 Amir Coffey (Minnesota).

That gives the B1G a total of 12 prospects in the ESPN 100, with Michigan State and Penn State leading the way with three committed prospects each.

Ohio State has two talents secured for next season -- No. 45 Derek Funderburk and No. 90 Micah Potter, and the Buckeyes are close with No. 18 Kobi Simmons.

Maryland has two in the 100, led by No. 40 Kevin Huerter, and the Terps are deep in the mix for a third -- No. 23 Wenyen Gabriel. Michigan (Xavier Simpson) and Minnesota (Coffey) are on the board with one player each.

MSU and Indiana are finalists for ESPN No. 8 Miles Bridges -- who would be the star in a class of stars.

Pac-12, Big East and AAC all on the 2016 recruiting map
The Pac-12 has six ESPN 100 prospects on their way, led by stars in ESPN No. 11 Lonzo Ball (UCLA) -- the best passer in the class -- and No. 12 Markelle Fultz (Washington), a go-to guy right away for Lorenzo Romar. More great news for Pac-12 fans is that Arizona is involved with ESPN No. 3 Josh Jackson, among many other impact players. At Arizona State, first-year coach Bobby Hurley and his staff are making their presence felt on the recruiting trail with two commits in the ESPN 100, including Sam Cunliffe (No. 38) who has a chance to be really good for the Sun Devils. Oregon, meanwhile, has sharpshooting Payton Pritchard (No. 42).

The Big East has six top 100 prospects, led by big man Omari Spellman (No. 17) who is headed to Villanova to play for Jay Wright. Xavier has two ESPN 100 talents committed for 2016 (No. 89 Tyrique Jones, No. 92 Quentin Goodin), while Marquette (No. 82 Sam Hauser) and Seton Hall (No. 74 Myles Powell), who each picked up one for next season.

For any league to be balanced, it needs the marquee programs to maintain consistency on the recruiting trail, and also for some of the up-and-coming programs to find momentum. The American has achieved that balance, as UConn has three outstanding players coming in for 2016, led by No. 28 Alterique Gilbert, and Cincinnati (No. 63 Jarron Cumberland) picked up a key commitment as well. Meanwhile, Orlando Antigua picked up a difference-maker for his up-and-coming South Florida program, with four-star forward Troy Baxter (No. 86) committing to the Bulls.
 

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Coaches Roundtable: Building a college basketball schedule isn't easy

Among the three of them, Seth Greenberg, Fran Fraschilla and Dan Dakich have more than 40 years of head-coaching experience at the Division I level. Each week, they get together to discuss the hottest topics in college basketball.

1. You three have coached at various levels of college hoops. How difficult is it to build a good schedule?



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Fraschilla: The second most important thing behind recruiting is scheduling. If you have a good mid-major team, the opportunity to play quality opponents is limited, and it's never at home. You know that whatever you do in the nonconference doesn't matter because you're going to have to win your league tournament.






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Dakich: When Dan Monson was at Gonzaga and I was at Bowling Green, he called me up and said, 'Hey man, let's play a home-and-home and not play the game. Let's have our PR guys make up a scoreboard. You win one, I win the other. We both have a quality win and we don't have to travel. ' He couldn't get a game and I couldn't get a game. Sometimes you have to laugh. It's so hard to get a level playing field. You have to know your team.



Fraschilla: My greatest win at New Mexico was knocking off Arizona on the road when they were No. 2 in the country (1999). They went on Christmas break and forgot to tell Lute Olson. But two days later, we had to come home and play New Mexico State at The Pit and we lost. I still can't remember much about the Arizona game because it destroyed our Christmas. Anytime I think about the Arizona win, I think about that loss. That's bad scheduling.



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Greenberg: There's a lot more that goes into putting together a schedule than people realize. You're talking about 18 conference games, academic schedules, competing with football sometimes -- and it takes two willing parties. The best coaches study the RPI and manipulate it. If you're a power conference team, you want to play the best teams in bad conferences. That's how you end up with a decent RPI if you have a .500 record. It's important to balance your schedule depending on who you are because your team's mentality still has to be in a good place.

Dakich: The smartest scheduler in the country, in my opinion, is Mike Krzyzewski. He never plays a nonconference road game. He plays in New York. He plays in Chicago, and he has recruited well there. We played them in the preseason NIT title game (1996). They called us up and asked if we minded them wearing black uniforms. Coach [Bob] Knight asked me what I thought, and I said 'Hell no. They're using this for recruiting. Tell them they're the home team. They wear white.' Krzyzewski thinks of everything.

2. We broke down college basketball's best guards last week, which begs the question: Which team has the best frontcourt going into the season?


Dakich: You have to start with Kentucky. We'll see how it plays out, but another team that has really good bigs is Purdue. They have A.J. Hammons, and it's so rare to have a kid of his talent level as a senior. Then there's Isaac Haasand a top-10 recruit in Caleb Swanigan. But the key is Vince Edwards, who was a really good freshman last year. He's a wing. He can guard big or small. Purdue is an interesting team because they embrace playing big. They have a very, very good frontcourt.

Fraschilla: The logical names are Gonzaga and North Carolina. They both have excellent front lines. But Maryland is interesting. They're going to have to figure out their backcourt situation because Melo Trimble is much more of a scorer than he is a point guard. I like the guys coming back, but I love (Georgia Tech transfer) Robert Carter. He's lost weight, and he was a double-double guy in the ACC. Jake Layman could have a solid senior year, and they've addedDiamond Stone, who's a beast. Throw in Damonte Dodd and Michal Cekovsky. Maryland's front line could be very good.

Greenberg: Maryland is at the top of my list, but Carolina is an obvious choice. Brice Johnson can be consistent. With his length, he can put pressure on the defense. Kennedy Meeks is a little undersized, but he can carve out space and rebound. Justin Jackson was really a good player at the end of last season. Isaiah Hicks might be the X factor because his productivity per minute was very good. On paper, they have upperclassmen and Marcus Paige, UNC understands what it takes. They have size, length, strength and depth.

I'll give you one sleeper, and it's San Diego State. Skylar Spencer blocks shots. Then you've got Malik Pope next to Winston Shepard. Throw in Angelo Chol. That's an interesting frontcourt in the Mountain West Conference.

Fraschilla: They say you design your offense with the missed shot in mind, well Carolina might be the best offensive rebounding team in the country this year. That bodes well for them if they can rebound missed 3s.

3. When you have a team that's expected to do well, how difficult is it to manage expectations and keep a team focused on the task at hand?


Greenberg: Jerry Tarkanian did it the best when UNLV had those great teams and that was to control your controllables. You're not going to hide it from your players. You have to embrace expectations because most times, it's earned. Winning is a byproduct of getting better every day, playing together, playing hard. For a team like Maryland, you're not winning a national championship in November and December. You have to understand it's exciting and you've earned it, it's going to help you in recruiting, but what are you going to do today to validate that? That's all in your approach.

Fraschilla: I always listen with an interested ear when a coach talks about goals. Bob Knight used to talk about eliminating the things that go into losing. When we put our goal sheet together as a team, we identified those things and were religious about it. We embraced the expectations but also made sure our players knew what the process was going to be and how to get there. Seth's right, it's not about November and December but it's your daily process in order to get the most out of your team. Coaches have to look at the long term.

Dakich: At Indiana, you didn't think about expectations. You just knew you were expected to win. It didn't need to be written down. You just went to work. At Bowling Green, one loss could keep you out of the tournament. In Urban Meyer's second year, both programs were going to be good, and we went everywhere together to excite the fans and drum up expectations so it's different depending on where you are.

Greenberg: Dan, don't you think your fans can get unrealistic? People start thinking making the tournament is easy. When you put yourself out there, sometimes it becomes an obstacle.

Dakich: It doesn't to me. Maybe that's why I'm out of coaching. I would rather the fans have higher expectations. Whether a fan expected me to win never entered my mind. It was, 'Let's win today and we'll figure out tomorrow later.' My first year (as a player) at Indiana, we beat Miami (Ohio) and I'm thinking this is great. Knight comes in and destroys us. He kicked us out of the locker room. He understood the time of year to do that kind of stuff.
 
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