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Skooby

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Tyson Chandler
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Team: Phoenix Suns

Contract: Four years, $52 million

Brandon Knight
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Team: Suns (re-signed)

Contract: Four years, $70 million

What it means: After coming to terms with the restricted Knight, the Suns turned their attention elsewhere to sign Chandler away from a variety of other suitors. A four-year contract for Chandler is a slight concern, given his injury history and age (36 by contract's end). Those factors are mitigated by Chandler going from one highly regarded athletic training staff to another. If Chandler is going to be healthy and productive anywhere, it's Phoenix.

What's next: While signing Chandler used up basically all of the Suns' cap space, they still immediately went into a meeting with Aldridge pitching the idea of playing the two free agents together. To clear space, Phoenix would probably need to move both Morris twins, along with some other salaries. Young center Alex Len could be expendable with the addition of Chandler, though Phoenix may be viewing Len as insurance should Chandler's health be an issue.

Paul Millsap
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Team: Atlanta Hawks (re-signed)

Contract: Three years, $59 million

What it means: After losing Carroll, the Hawks ensured the return of one of their starting forwards by re-signing Millsap late in the day. Previously, their offer to the two-time All-Star had been reported at four years and $80 million. A three-year deal should work somewhat better for Atlanta, since it limits the small potential risk of Millsap declining significantly by his mid-30s. I project his value at $73 million over the life of this contract.

What's next: Having re-signed Millsap and traded for center Tiago Splitter from the San Antonio Spurs, the Hawks are now out of cap space. That leaves them with only their $2.8 million room exception to chase a Carroll replacement.



Goran Dragic
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Team: Miami Heat (re-signed)

Contract: Five years, $90 million

What it means: Having given up two first-round picks for Dragic at the trade deadline, there was never really much chance of Miami letting him go. They stepped up with a larger offer than any other team could have made Dragic, keeping him in the fold. This deal might be a slight overpay. I project Dragic's value at $51 million over the next three years, and it's unlikely he'll still be worth $20 million a year by the final season of the contract, when he'll be 34.

What's next: The Heat will continue negotiating with their other starting guard, Dwyane Wade.





Brook Lopez
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Team: Brooklyn Nets (re-signed)

Contract: Three years, $60 million

Thaddeus Young
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Team: Nets (re-signed)

Contract: Four years, $50 million

What it means: The Nets were the first of many teams to bring back their starting lineups intact, quickly agreeing on new contracts with their frontcourt of Young and Lopez that spurred a playoff run after Young's acquisition at the trade deadline. Those results aside, there's reason to worry about both deals. Lopez didn't crack my top 30 in value because of his poor RPM and injury history. If he stays healthy, he should justify a max salary, but if his foot is problematic again this contract could be a rare overpay. And $50 million over four years is just past the edge of Young's value, which I project at $34 million over the next three.

What's next: A couple of members of Brooklyn's second unit, Alan Anderson and Mirza Teletovic, are restricted free agents. The Nets will have to weigh their value against the cost of leaping far over the luxury tax. Brooklyn already has about $93 million committed to 10 players under guaranteed contract, putting the Nets over the tax line. They might be able to trim that bill by trading Joe Johnson in the final season of his massive contract.



Khris Middleton
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Team: Milwaukee Bucks (re-signed)

Contract: Five years, $70 million

What it means: The Bucks headed off the possibility of a lucrative offer sheet for Middleton, a restricted free agent, with a five-year offer that should age well. Because of Middleton's terrific RPM, I project his value at more than $60 million over the next three seasons.

What's next: Agreeing with Middleton early and delaying his signing allows Milwaukee to utilize its full $16 million or so in cap room. The Bucks reportedly met with center Robin Lopez on Wednesday as they look to fill their need in the middle.





Paul Pierce
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Team: Los Angeles Clippers

Contract: Three years, $10.6 million

What it means: The Clippers secured one of the day's best bargains by convincing Pierce to pass up the chance to make $6-plus million with the Washington Wizards next season to return home for a deal starting at $3.4 million (the taxpayer mid-level exception). I project Pierce's value at more than $30 million over the next three seasons, and he'll make about a third of that in that span. That's a huge break for a Clippers team that needed one given its precarious cap position.

What's next: Adding Pierce may help the Clippers sell DeAndre Jordan on the idea of returning to L.A. as an unrestricted free agent. If Jordan leaves, the Clippers will have few good ways to replace him. But if Jordan does re-sign, the Clippers will remain in the mix for the Western Conference title.



Al-Farouq Aminu
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Team: Portland Trail Blazers

Contract: Four years, $30 million

What it means: This deal, the first agreed to by a free agent to join a new team, was a little tough to accept at first. After all, Aminu played for the veteran's minimum last season and averaged just 5.6 points per game in Dallas. However, Aminu's strong RPM is a clue toward his value as a wing defender and an undersized power forward. I project him as worth $34 million over just the next three seasons, making this deal a strong one. The Blazers probably see Aminu more as a small forward after trading Nicolas Batum for 4-manNoah Vonleh last week. In that case, he could certainly stand to improve his outside shooting.

What's next: Assuming veterans Aldridge, Lopez and Matthews all head elsewhere -- a safe one at this point -- Portland will still have more than $30 million in cap space to pursue other free agents who fit with the team's timetable. The Blazers have quickly amassed a core of players in their early- to mid-20s, including Aminu (25 in September).





Brandan Wright
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Team: Memphis Grizzlies

Contract: Three years, $17 million

What it means: The Grizzlies replaced backup center Kosta Koufos, an unrestricted free agent, with Wright. The high-percentage finisher gives Memphis a very different look in its frontcourt. Like Koufos, he could potentially play with both of Memphis' starters up front, Marc Gasol -- assuming he re-signs -- and Zach Randolph. He's a solid value at this price (I project his production as worth $27 million over the next three years).

What's next: All indications are a new contract for Gasol will be completed quickly, in which case the heaviest lifting of Memphis' offseason is already over. The Grizzlies likely will stay active in the trade market for a wing upgrade, but using the non-taxpayer mid-level to sign Wright does subject them to the hard cap $4 million greater than the luxury-tax line. That shouldn't be a major issue, as Memphis could still spend about $8 million more if the cap falls at $68 million.



Kyle Singler
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Team: Oklahoma City Thunder (re-signed)

Contract: Five years, $25 million

What it means: It's tough to overpay with the cap escalating so quickly, but the Thunder might have managed to do so. I project Singler's value at less than $9 million total over the next three seasons. He hasn't been far above replacement level over the course of his career, and the rising cap doesn't change the value of a replacement-level player. If Singler plays more like 2013-14, when he posted an impressive .574 true shooting percentage, he'll be worth this deal. Last year's below-average .512 true shooting (.461 in Oklahoma City) won't cut it.

What's next: The Thunder still have to deal with the other restricted free agent they added at the deadline, center Enes Kanter. Oklahoma City is already almost at the luxury-tax line, and re-signing Kanter will surely push them deep into the tax. The Thunder could look to move reserves Perry Jones and Steve Novak to cut their bill.



Alexis Ajinca
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Team: New Orleans Pelicans (re-signed)

Contract: Four years, $20 million

What it means: Ajinca was a bargain backup center for the Pelicans the past two seasons in his second NBA stint, with a return to France in between. He'll still be effective but no longer a bargain after agreeing to a new contract. In the context of the rising cap, Ajinca will be making less than the mid-level exception, which isn't so bad for a backup center. The big concern to me is whether New Orleans should be playing (or paying) two traditional centers when their best option at center is Anthony Davis. ESPN's Marc Stein reported Wednesday night that the Pelicans agreed to a five-year deal with starting center Omer Asik. The annual salary isn't terrible, especially since Stein reported that the final season of Asik's contract (when he'll be 33) is non-guaranteed.

What's next: Bringing back Asik ensures New Orleans plays this summer over the cap, giving the Pelicans the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.5 million) to add to their roster. The Pelicans will also likely look to re-sign restricted free agent Norris Cole.
 

Skooby

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Trade Grades: Kings dump salary on Sixers

The Deal


Kings get: Rights to Arturas Gudaitis and Luka Mitrovic

76ers get: Guard Nik Stauskas, forwards Carl Landry and Jason Thompson, a top-10 protected pick beginning two years after the conclusion of the Kings' obligation to the Chicago Bulls, two future pick swaps



Sacramento Kings: F


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This is a truly historic salary dump. The biggest pure salary offload I can remember is the Golden State Warriors sending Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson and Brandon Rush to the Utah Jazz to create the cap room to sign future Finals MVP Andre Iguodala, a move that looks pretty inspired in hindsight. All three of those players were in contract years, so the Warriors shed a total of $24 million. Because both Landry and Thompson have two years left on their deals, the total package the Kings are sending out is almost $25 million in guaranteed salary. This season, it saves Sacramento $14.2 million under the cap, bringing the Kings' total space to somewhere between $23 and $25 million, depending where the cap falls and what they do with players on non-guaranteed contracts.

Naturally, what they're giving the 76ers to take on that salary is enormous in its own right. Beyond just Stauskas, the eighth pick of last year's draft, Sacramento is also giving up a top-10 protected first-round pick (according to Grantland's Zach Lowe) and swap rights in two other years. Those sound innocuous, especially with a team as bad as the 76ers are now, but years in the future, it's possible the trajectories of the two franchises could be very different. Ask the Brooklyn Nets, who dropped from 15th to 29th in this year's draft because of a rights swap with the Atlanta Hawks, how painful they can eventually become. In return, the Kings get the rights to a pair of second-round picks in last Thursday's draft, Gudaitis (taken 47th overall) and Mitrovic (the 60th and final pick), according to ESPN the Magazine's Pablo Torre.

It's possible the value on this trade might still pencil out on paper because Landry and Thompson are such onerous contracts. I have their value as slightly negative over the next two seasons while they make a combined $26-plus million. In a vacuum, that might be around the value of the picks the Kings gave up.




Unfortunately, Sacramento doesn't play in a vacuum. It plays in the Western Conference, which remains loaded. Since Vivek Ranadivé purchased the team, the Kings have been relentlessly and ineffectually chasing short-term upgrades to try to get competitive. That's partially how they got here in the first place. Two years ago, Landry was the shiny new free agent. Sacramento bought high on a 30-year-old undersized power forward, handing out a four-year contract. Two years and multiple injuries later, the Kings are giving up picks so they can sign the next Landry.

There are real-life considerations at play. Sacramento wants badly to put together a winning team in time for the opening of its new arena, the Golden 1 Center, at the start of the 2016-17 season. The Kings also hope to win to help keep star center DeMarcus Cousinshappy, since it's never too early to start worrying about Cousins' free agency three years down the line.

Wishing and hoping, alas, aren't enough to make Sacramento competitive, especially in the West. Look around. There might be a couple of playoff spots open this year, but the Oklahoma City Thunder are sure to take one of them, the Jazz were one of the conference's better teams after the trade deadline and the Phoenix Suns just added Tyson Chandler. The Kings were already behind all of those teams, and it's hard to imagine the players they add with the cap space they've created making the difference.

In their efforts to dig out of a nine-year playoff drought (and counting), the Kings keep making things worse, borrowing against an increasingly distant future to chase smaller immediate returns. Until they break that cycle, it's hard to see the franchise's fortunes changing.






Philadelphia 76ers: B+


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No GM is better positioned to take advantage of another team's desperation than Sam Hinkie. The bank of Hinkie was open extended hours on July 1, and the 76ers could reap the benefits far down the line.

There are a couple of factors that will determine whether this was a good trade for Philadelphia or a great one. The first is the development of Stauskas, who was wildly ineffective as a rookie. Drafted primarily on the basis of his shooting, Stauskas made just 32.2 percent of his 3-point attempts and 40.8 percent of his tries inside the arc. Given his poor defense, that made Stauskas unplayable for anything besides development purposes.

Fittingly, my SCHOENE projection system scores Stauskas' rookie season as most similar to Ben McLemore's campaign in Sacramento the year before. McLemore did make major strides in year two, and Stauskas' 10 best comps include success stories such as Gordon Hayward, Joe Johnson and Khris Middleton, so there's still hope here. At the same time, given his physical limitations on defense, it's possible Stauskas may never be anything more than a reserve. This could be a repeat of the Kings dealing Thomas Robinson before the rest of the league caught on that he was overdrafted.

The second factor is how quickly the Sixers start winning. If they're still in the lottery when the pick swaps come up, it's unlikely they'll do the team much good. It's only if Philadelphia has built a contender while Sacramento still languishes outside the playoffs that the 76ers will really reap the benefits. In a sense, then, this trade is Hinkie betting on his own team and against Sacramento. The latter, at the very least, has an excellent chance of paying out.
 

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Tyson Chandler signing shows the Suns have given up on a rebuild

During 2013-14, the Phoenix Suns unexpectedly contended for a playoff spot, and that screwed up everything. Phoenix entered that season -- Ryan McDonough's first as general manager -- expecting to rebuild. The overachieving campaign put the Suns in an awkward position between committing to their young players and trying to win immediately. The result was a frustrating 2014-15 season. Phoenix's addition of Isaiah Thomas created a logjam that ultimately led to Goran Dragic forcing his way out at the trade deadline. The Suns ended up winning nine fewer games than the season before.

This summer, with the departures of Dragic and Thomas creating cap space, the Suns faced another crossroads. This time, they have clearly chosen trying to contend. On Wednesday, the first day of NBA free agency, Phoenix agreed with 32-year-old center Tyson Chandler on a reported four-year, $52 million contract. Chandler immediately accelerates Phoenix's timetable.

Projecting the Suns with Chandler

Even without an offseason upgrade, Phoenix was likely to be better than it was a season ago. The Suns collapsed after trading Dragic and Thomas at the deadline, going 10-18 (.357) to slip out of playoff contention in the Western Conference. Jeff Hornacek never got a real chance to coach his new backcourt, with deadline pickup Brandon Knight playing just 11 of those games due to a severely sprained ankle.


When it became clear Phoenix wasn't making the postseason, Hornacek used the final weeks of the schedule as an open tryout for young players like Archie Goodwin and T.J. Warren. After peaking at 38-33, the Suns lost 10 of their final 11 games.

Having quickly locked up Knight (a restricted free agent) to a five-year, $70 million deal, the Suns will have their full complement of players available from the start of next season. And that group will now include Chandler, coming off a bounce-back season for theDallas Mavericks.

Chandler fills the biggest short-term need in the Suns' lineup. They had a young prospect at the position in 2013 lottery pick Alex Len, who replaced since-departed Miles Plumlee as the starting center midseason. After a promising start, however, Len faded in the second half, and he's not yet a playoff-caliber starter at age 22.

There's no question Chandler fits that bill when healthy. His 14-year career has featured a largely unpredictable series of disappointing, injury-plagued seasons mixed with healthy, productive ones. After missing a combined 43 games due to injury his last two seasons with the New York Knicks, Chandler played all but seven in Dallas, a major reason he was so much more effective.

That's why the best aspect of the move might be Chandler going from one highly regarded athletic training staff to another. In the six years I've been tracking injury data, the Mavericks have lost the fifth-fewest games to injury. During that span, Phoenix has lost the fewest, and the Suns' training staff has succeeded in keeping aging, injury-prone veterans on the court. And with Len as a backup, Phoenix can limit Chandler's minutes, as Dallas did last season.

Though the Suns can still expect a little regression from Chandler given his age, ESPN's real plus-minus projects him as worth about seven wins above replacement (WAR) in 2015-16. Add Len, and Phoenix could get 10 WAR from the position, which provided about three WAR last season.

Thanks to that upgrade, a preliminary RPM projection shows the Suns as about a 46-win team next season. That would probably be enough to claim a low playoff seed in the Western Conference, though Phoenix will face stiff competition. The Oklahoma City Thunder are sure to return to the postseason, and the Utah Jazz surpassed the Suns as the rising West lottery team in the second half of 2014-15.


Chandler legitimizes Phoenix for free agents
The wins Chandler provides on the court next season might not be his most important selling point. It's no coincidence the Phoenix front office wrapped up the deal in time to bring Chandler to a meeting with LaMarcus Aldridge. Specifically, playing next to a defensive-minded center like Chandler should appeal to Aldridge. More generally, adding a veteran in a win-now move helps legitimize the Suns as a destination for top free agents.

A source told ESPN's Marc Stein that Phoenix already had "moved into a contending position" to sign Aldridge. The Suns were once a major destination for free agents, and have the ability to become so again if they can also present stars a credible chance to contend.

To make the next step from playoff contender to actual threat in the West, the Suns will probably need to add a star to their young core of Knight, Eric Bledsoe and forward Markieff Morris. If Chandler helps the Suns do so, the $52 million they spent on him will have been a great investment.
 

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You have questions? These Power 5 teams have answers

In a couple of weeks, there’s a strong likelihood that Alabama will be named the favorite to win the league’s Western Division by the media at the conference's media days and, therefore, the SEC favorite, overall.

But why?

Take a look at the question marks and weaknesses. When you peel back the layers, it’s crystal clear that Auburn should be the runaway favorite in the division.

If the Tigers' perceived weakness from a year ago was their pass rush, they could not have addressed that any better than 1) getting back a healthy Carl Lawson, 2) signing a future star in Byron Cowart and 3) hiring the hottest free agent DC, Will Muschamp. The last time Muschamp was a coordinator, at Texas, the Longhorns led the country in sacks in a three-year span.

Replacing a two-year starting quarterback? Not a problem. Recall that Gus Malzahn had done that every year as a college coach until last season. Plus, most SEC coaches thought Jeremy Johnson would have (or should have) overtaken Nick Marshall last fall. Johnson’s ability as a passer has the league’s DCs buzzing this summer, that’s for sure.

Really, running back just might be the biggest unknown for the Tigers -- and Malzahn has shown a knack for finding capable ball-carriers. Tre Mason and Cameron Artis-Payne each enjoyed breakout seasons the past two years. Each led the SEC in rushing. Those close to the program believe Jovon Robinson, who has great size (6-1, 230 pounds), and sophomore Roc Thomas are a more-than-serviceable 1-2 punch -- especially with a quarterback who can keep defenses more honest with his arm.

Getting Duke Williams back for another year at receiver was an important development. He has NFL size and talent. The offensive line returns both bookends. Malzahn will get his production on offense.

Shifting to Alabama, the hole at receiver left by Amari Cooper is glaring. The line still has not returned to where it was two or three years ago. There will be another new quarterback, and yet-to-be-determined one at that.

On defense, the reshuffled staff has to get the secondary -- and especially the cornerback position -- settled. It’s been a sore spot, going back to 2012. It’s a typical Alabama front; no qualms there. But Auburn has the upper hand in just about every other spot. Oh, and the Tigers host the Tide in the Iron Bowl.

Remember all of that when you’re doing the voting in Hoover, SEC media types.

Here are the teams with the fewest question marks in every other Power 5 division. That’s not to say that every program that follows is a division favorite, but each one is best positioned in terms of known player and coaching commodities.

ACC Atlantic: North Carolina State

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Clemson and FSU will be the favorites in the division (and league) because of how they have recruited in recent classes, but NC State has the fewest questions to answer thanks to the most capable returning cast in the Atlantic.

It makes you wonder, in fact, if the Wolfpack might be a dark horse to monitor in the ACC. At minimum, State could very well be a head-to-head spoiler of the Tigers' or Seminoles’ hopes of reaching the playoff. (The Pack has been a thorn-in-the-side program for FSU. See: 2012.)

Dave Doeren, who received a two-year extension this offseason, is starting to get his bearings. The team won three of its final four games, including a 35-7 evisceration of rival North Carolina. Beating UCF in the postseason produced such headlines as “Bowl Win Proves N.C. State Going in Right Direction Under Doeren.” There’s momentum in Raleigh.

Finding a quarterback helps, and Florida transfer Jacoby Brissett -- a difference-maker in every way -- is back for another year. Of the starters back on defense, the entire secondary returns, including two big, physical corners (6-1 Juston Burris and 6-foot Jack Tocho).

ESPN's FPI projects an eight-win season for the Wolfpack. Will that total include Clemson or FSU? They play the Tigers at home (Oct. 31) and the Noles on the road (Nov. 14).

ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech

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The Hokies are only lightly being mentioned this summer. That’s mostly due to the fact that, by December, they were a mere shell of the team that toppled Ohio State in September.

The team dealt with a mounting number of injuries that had the coaching staff throwing up its hands in frustration by Nov. 1. Just about every position was impacted, and more often than not it was key contributors who were lost.

This season, most return.

That includes standout corner Brandon Facyson, who was never quite right last year. The top two running backs, Shai McKenzie and Marshawn Williams, both tore their ACLs during the season. (McKenzie was suspended for the spring, but is expected to be reinstated.) Defensive tackle Luther Maddy is another returning from knee surgery.

Losing those major pieces was among the reasons Virginia Tech fell off late last season.

Quarterback still remains iffy, though Michael Brewer had his moments -- most notably in Columbus. With more consistency from healthy runners, his job will be made easier. The team’s young receivers are certainly a blossoming group of assets: Sophomores Isaiah Ford, Cam Phillips and tight end Bucky Hodges are all terrific. They accounted for 16 of the team’s 31 offensive TDs last season.

Georgia Tech was in consideration here, but the Jackets lost every primary ball carrier from a year ago. And even though they're returning a large number of players on defense, it’s still a unit that was 111th in yards per play (6.32).

Big Ten East: Ohio State

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Some things are as simple as they seem: Ohio State is the clear national favorite because it returns virtually everyone, including those three quarterbacks you’ve heard so much about. As far as selecting one, do not be surprised when J.T. Barrett overtakesCardale Jones -- if not in camp, then sometime in September.

“He’s the guy,” said a coach in another league, who has observed from afar. “He’s steady. He’s the leader. He’ll be their starter again at some point.”

The Buckeyes will miss Devin Smith as a vertical threat; it’s up to Michael Thomas to fill that void. At 6-3 and 210 pounds, he has the physical capability for the job.

No one in the country has a back as dependable as Ezekiel Elliott, and speedy edge playmakers will keep defenses from keying too intently on him.

Defensively, there are seemingly too many stars to count. A good place to start: End Joey Bosa might be the No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft. Sophomore Raekwon McMillan looks like another future first-rounder at linebacker, to follow Ryan Shazier’s path.

Managing hype and expectations is Ohio State’s biggest burden, and Urban Meyer has been in that position before. Forget playoff or bust for the Bucks; it’s a second title or bust with a team this gifted and deep.

Big Ten West: Wisconsin

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Let’s be honest. There’s no clear-cut option here. Nebraska and Wisconsin are both replacing their head coaches -- but at least Wisconsin brought back someone familiar to the program and its fans. That’s bound to ease the transition, though do not expect a Malzahn-like rocket ship to the national title game in Year 1 for Paul Chryst. But Chryst, previously the program’s OC under Bret Bielema, figures to provide coaching stability in Madison following Gary Andersen’s short stay.

The Badgers bring back the majority of their defense after replacing virtually the entire front seven a year ago. So that’s a strong suit for the defending division champs, especially considering DC Dave Aranda stayed through the coaching change. It’s almost as if nothing has changed on that side of the ball.

On offense, things aren’t as sure, but Corey Clement has the earmark of being the next productive 'Sconsin running back and fifth-year senior QB Joel Stavehas certainly been through his share of battles.

This is the Power 5 division with the most question marks, but that’s also because it’s the weakest division in Power 5.

Big 12: Baylor

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As with most everything else, Baylor and TCU are fairly close. But it’s Baylor that has more proven pieces on defense, so the Bears get the nod.

Let that sink in: Baylor’s defense, maligned for so long, is what makes it more complete than TCU. That’s how far Phil Bennett’s group has come. It’s still going to give up yards and points, but a physical evolution has happened in Waco. Some in the league think the Bears sometimes play dirty, and the number of penalties would seem to support that to some degree. But there’s an attitude, and a skill level, that wasn’t previously present. Baylor is finding a defensive identity.

Most weeks in the Big 12, a front line featuring end Shawn Oakman (6-9, 275 pounds) and tackles Andrew Billings (6-2, 300 pounds) and Beau Blackshear (6-4, 300 pounds) just isn’t a fair fight.

TCU returns a budding star at quarterback, but the Baylor staff feels good -- really good -- about Seth Russell as a replacement for Bryce Petty. Based on past progression plans at QB, it’s fair to trust Briles on that.

Aiding that: There is no better receivers group in the country. There is more receiver talent standing by Briles on the sideline than a number of high-end teams have on their rosters. Baylor can’t even get all its playmakers on the field.

Pac-12 North: Oregon

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It says a lot about the Ducks -- and the division -- that they could still have the fewest question marks despite losing a Heisman-winning quarterback and several important pieces from the defense.

But, looking around the North, Stanford replaces even more on defense and Washington has a lot of roster reconstruction going on in Chris Petersen’s second year.

What makes Oregon stand out is its returning skill talent. Running back Royce Freeman (1,365 yards, 18 touchdowns as a freshman) will be a dependable option who could push 300 carries in his second season. Byron Marshall moved from the backfield to receiver and had a 1,000-yard season. Darren Carrington,Devon Allen and Dwayne Stanford are all proven options at receiver, though Carrington is still working through an eligibility issue.

As far as replacing Marcus Mariota, those who are familiar with Vernon Adams believe he could be a superstar this fall after transferring from Eastern Washington. He’s still an unknown in terms of Oregon and Power 5 football, but he’s no newcomer. The guy has scored 121 total touchdowns and thrown for more than 10,000 yards in three seasons.

Defensively, receiver/utility back Charles Nelson’s move from to the secondary should ease some of the concerns in the defensive backfield. Ducks coach Mark Helfrich will surely still find ways to get the ball to Nelson on offense, too.
 

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Pac-12 South: USC

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USC returns an efficient fifth-year starting QB, Cody Kessler, and its entire offensive line. That’s a heck of a foundation.

Back Justin Davis had 129 carries a year ago, so he’s no newbie. Receiver JuJu Smith (54 catches, 724 yards as a freshman) is ready for another step in his second season. Do-it-all utility guy Adoree' Jackson will have a role, as well.

If this isn’t the most explosive offense in the division -- and the division is very good and very deep -- something has gone awry.

The defense brings back seven starters, including Jackson and safety-turned-linebacker Su'a Cravens. The new role will put the wrecking ball and likely USC captain closer to the ball more often, helping the team’s new starters at end and the “rush” position. Even those players, though, are expected to be in their fourth or fifth years in the program.

The Trojans are loaded, with a nice blend of young talent and experience. There’s no discernible reason this shouldn’t be a legit playoff contender.

SEC East: Georgia

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It isn’t ideal to again be breaking in a new quarterback, but having running backs like Nick Chubb and Sony Michel soothes the challenge for whoever wins the QB1 job. (For the record: Those close to the program expect it to be Brice Ramsey, but Faton Bautaopened eyes in the spring.)


The line is mostly back intact, and receivers Malcolm Mitchell and Justin Scott-Wesley have played a lot of snaps. There are a number of SEC coaches curious how Brian Schottenheimer, coming from the NFL, will call a college game -- and how that will mesh with head coach Mark Richt’s style. Richt and former OC Mike Bobo were in lockstep because they’d worked together so long; it’ll be intriguing to see what Schottenheimer brings with him, philosophically. Heck, maybe this is the kick UGA needed all along to get over the hump.

I was told last summer by someone who knows the team well that it was going to take a little while for defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt to get personnel set up the way that he’d like it. Entering Year 2, it’s getting there.

Pruitt employed a number of young players in defensive line and secondary rotations in 2014, so that should pay dividends this fall. Even new starters have seen the field quite a bit.

UAB transfer Jake Ganus is a piece worth watching at middle linebacker, where Georgia lost a lot of experience.
 

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Wizards look to offset loss of Pierce with Jared Dudley

The Deal
Wizards get: Forward Jared Dudley



Bucks get: Future second-round pick





Washington Wizards: B+
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It's unfair to say that Jared Dudley is replacing Paul Pierce for the Wizards. While Dudley has had a fine career in his own right, he's not a 10-time All-Star or former champion like Pierce, and it's hard to see Dudley winning multiple playoff games with buzzer-beating jumpers. (Dudley did assist the game-winning layup for Milwaukee in Game 4 against Chicago, it's true.)

That said, with Pierce leaving to join his hometown L.A. Clippers, Washington was in need of a combo forward who could team with Otto Porter Jr. in the kinds of small units that were so effective for head coach Randy Wittman during the postseason. That kind of versatility has been a hallmark for Dudley, an undersized power forward at Boston College who worked to develop into a 3-and-D wing and has now returned to the 4 spot on a regular basis as he's aged.

While it was tricky to parse positions at times with the Bucks last season, based on lineup data from NBA.com/Stats I have Dudley playing 1,015 minutes at small forward and 608 at power forward, with the team outscoring its opponents with him at either position. Expect a similar split with the Wizards depending on Wittman's comfort using small lineups in the regular season, Porter's development and how Martell Webster rebounds from last year's back surgery.

The price for Dudley was right. From a salary perspective, he'll make an eminently reasonable $4.25 million this season after opting into the final year of his contract, which fits into a trade exception Washington has from dealing Andre Miller at the deadline. I project Dudley's value at $6 million. And it doesn't appear he cost much in compensation either, with Milwaukee getting a second-round pick in return.

The one concern here is Dudley's health. Patella issues hampered his 2013-14 season with the L.A. Clippers, who dumped his salary on the Bucks last summer. Dudley credited the Milwaukee athletic training staff with helping get him healthy, though he still missed some time in March and April. The Wizards will have to keep Dudley on the court to maximize his value.









Milwaukee Bucks: C-
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I'm surprised the Bucks would move on so quickly from Dudley, whose leadership and bench play were major factors in their surprising playoff berth last season. Dudley had indicated he was interested in signing an extension to stay in Milwaukee. Apparently the front office didn't share that sentiment.


The Bucks do have a crowded roster after dealing for Greivis Vasquez on draft night and signing Greg Monroe as an unrestricted free agent earlier Friday. I'm guessing Milwaukee thinks it can replace Dudley from within. Monroe's arrival may push John Henson to backup power forward, and the Bucks have plenty of options on the wings. In addition to No. 2 pick Jabari Parker, Milwaukee also has Damien Inglis (a combo forward taken early in the second round) coming back from injury.

Still, it's hard to see any of these players being as effective for the Bucks off the bench as Dudley. Among players who saw at least 1,000 minutes of action in Milwaukee last season, Dudley's plus-3.7 net rating per 100 possessions was the team's third-best according to NBA.com/Stats. The Bucks were slightly outscored with Dudley on the bench. So unless a deal offered more value in return, I would have kept Dudley around through the conclusion of his contract.


Suns unload three players to clear space for LaMarcus Aldridge

The Deal
Pistons get: Forwards Reggie Bullock, Danny Granger and Marcus Morris

Suns get: 2020 second-round pick





Detroit Pistons: B
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This hasn't been the kind of exciting offseason Pistons fans had hoped for. As Greg Monroe departs for the Milwaukee Bucks as an unrestricted free agent, Detroit's biggest acquisition thus far has been Ersan Ilyasova. The Pistons signed center Aron Baynes to a three-year deal worth possibly as much as $20 million on Friday, per a report by ESPN's Marc Stein, then completed this trade (as reported by Yahoo! Sports) to help Phoenix clear cap space.

None of that is sexy, and the Baynes contract looks like an overpay. Still, this trade is a solid one for Detroit, which takes on $8.4 million in salary for this season in order to get Morris. The lesser twin agreed to take $5 million per year as part of the collective three-year, $39 million extension he and brother Markieff negotiated with the Suns last fall. As the cap rises, Morris should be worth more than that money since at 25 he's in the prime of his career.

I particularly like Morris' fit in Detroit because he's a good enough small forward to start if needed but not so good as to block rookie Stanley Johnson's path to the starting spot. He's a capable outside shooter (35.8 percent from 3-point range last season) and can swing to power forward at times in smaller units.

The biggest concern might be whether Morris can be effective without Markieff alongside him. The numbers suggest that, in his case, the twin effect is probably overblown. Morris had a decent second season with the Houston Rockets before being traded to Phoenix at the deadline and has been about equally productive over the past three seasons without his brother on the court as with him.

MARCUS MORRIS TWIN EFFECT
Minutes P36 R36 A36 TS%
With Markieff 14.9 6.1 2.1 0.536
Without Markieff 15.1 7.0 1.7 0.524
Source: NBA.com/Stats
The cost of taking on Morris' salary isn't particularly onerous. The Pistons must pay veteran forward Danny Granger $2.2 million this season, an amount they might stretch if they decide to waive him. They also get wing Reggie Bullock, a former first-round pick who has yet to find a home in the NBA. Bullock is a decent "second draft" prospect in his own right, and if he struggles in training camp Detroit can simply decline his 2016-17 team option and move on after the season.








Phoenix Suns: B-
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In making this trade, the Suns are gambling on their ability to sign LaMarcus Aldridge as a free agent after a successful meeting with him Wednesday. The timing of the meeting with Aldridge was odd because Phoenix had just used its cap space to sign center Tyson Chandler, using Chandler as a selling point in recruiting Aldridge. Obviously, more moves were forthcoming in the event Aldridge picked the Suns, and this is the first step in that process.

By shedding $8.4 million in salary, Phoenix now has about $20 million in cap space. That would be enough to sign Aldridge outright. In that scenario, the Suns would have a couple of possible next steps. They could try to complete a sign-and-trade with the Dallas Mavericks for Chandler, offering either Markieff Morris and someone with a smaller expiring salary, such as Jon Leuer, or a package of forward P.J. Tucker and center Alex Len.

If the Mavericks balk at helping facilitate an Aldridge-Chandler pairing in Phoenix, the Suns could look to trade additional salary elsewhere to clear cap space for the Chandler offer. Because of trade matching rules, Phoenix would need to move less salary than Chandler's full first-year amount in a sign-and-trade, making it preferable.

So what if the Suns don't get Aldridge? Fortunately, the cost here isn't tremendously painful. This isn't the Cleveland Cavaliers trading Tyler Zeller and a first-round pick in the hopes of landing LeBron James a year ago. Morris is a good value, but Phoenix could still use its cap space on another forward to replace him. The Suns wouldn't do the deal unless they thought they were getting Aldridge, but it's not a disaster in a vacuum.

One concern, however, is that Markieff has in fact shown signs of the twin effect. He has been a totally different player when playing with his brother.

MARKIEFF MORRIS TWIN EFFECT
Minutes P36 R36 A36 TS%
With Marcus 18.5 7.4 2.7 0.566
Without Marcus 15.4 7.7 2.3 0.495
Source: NBA.com/Stats
Some of that effect is probably statistical noise, since there's a little more than a season's worth of minutes either way. Still, chasing Aldridge might leave Phoenix with a lesser player at power forward.
 

Skooby

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Analyzing Day 2: Heat keep Wade and flexibility for 2016

The second day of NBA free agency wasn't quite as busy as the opening 24 hours, but still featured a number of notable deals. That pace will have to slow at some point, since 14 of the top 19 free agents, by my value projections, have already agreed to new contracts.

For now, here's a look at Thursday's deals and what they mean.




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Dwyane Wade


Team: Miami Heat (re-signed)



Contract: One year, $20 million




What it means: The Heat and Wade compromised, agreeing to a one-year deal that reimburses Wade for some of the money he left on the table by opting out a year ago -- he'll make nearly $4 million more than the $16.1 million he was originally scheduled to make in 2015-16. Miami wins by maintaining flexibility for the summer of 2016, when re-signing Wade to a longer contract at a lower annual rate will give the Heat more room to pursue a max free agent and try to re-sign center Hassan Whiteside.

What's next: Miami president Pat Riley managed to secure a meeting with LaMarcus Aldridge on Thursday night, though with Wade's salary on the books it's hard to imagine how the Heat could clear enough space to sign Aldridge outright. A sign-and-trade with thePortland Trail Blazers would appear to be Miami's only avenue to landing Aldridge. More likely, the Heat will stand relatively pat after re-signing Wade and Goran Dragic. Miami's next move could be trying to trim its tax bill. The Heat are currently eight figures over the tax line and would be subject to the harsh repeater tax as taxpayers three of the past four seasons.





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Greg Monroe


Team: Milwaukee Bucks

Contract: Three years, approximately $50 million

What it means: The Bucks filled their biggest need at center with a 25-year-old veteran just entering his prime in Monroe, who looks like a major upgrade on offense. Monroe's fit is a little more questionable defensively, but his low maximum salary makes him a good buy. I project his value at $69 million over the next three years, which means Monroe will almost certainly opt to become a free agent again in the summer of 2017 rather than playing out his contract.

What's next: Milwaukee traded reserve forward Jared Dudley to the Washington Wizards on Thursday evening, meaning signing Monroe won't quite use up all the Bucks' cap space. Alas, Milwaukee already has 15 players under guaranteed contract, so the remaining $3-5 million may go unused.








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Monta Ellis


Team: Indiana Pacers

Contract: Four years, $44 million



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Lavoy Allen


Team: Pacers (re-signed)

Contract: Three years, $12 million

What it means: The Pacers are an ideal fit for Ellis, who's functionally a point guard at this stage of his career. Indiana's nominal point guard, George Hill, is big enough to defend shooting guards and a good enough shooter to be dangerous off the ball. Ellis' pick-and-roll ability makes the Pacers' offensive attack more dynamic, so as long as Indiana can keep him happy this deal should work well. The Pacers brought back Allen, a favorite of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), using his Bird rights. Because of his RPM, Allen is projected as worth about $18 million over the next three years. With uncertainty in Indiana's frontcourt, it's conceivable that Allen could push for a starting job.

What's next: The Pacers are capped out, so to create space to replace power forward David West they'll have to move some salary. The most likely candidate is starting center Roy Hibbert, whose slow-paced game has fallen out of favor in Indiana. The Pacers could move Hibbert to a team with cap space, clearing between $14-16 million to shop for frontcourt replacements.





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Wesley Matthews


Team: Dallas Mavericks

Contract: Four years, TBD

What it means: Salary details weren't yet available Thursday night for Matthews, who agreed to a four-year deal with the Mavericks, sources told ESPN.com's Marc Stein. Matthews passed on a strong offer from the Sacramento Kings, who reportedly offered $64 million over four years. If healthy, Matthews is worth the money. I projected his value at $51 million over the next three years. "If healthy" is a big assumption for a player coming off a ruptured Achilles, however. The track record of NBA players suffering Achilles ruptures features only a handful who returned at 100 percent. That makes a big deal for Matthews a huge risk, especially for a team like Dallas that is unlikely to have much depth -- and has a starting small forward, Chandler Parsons, coming off a surgery (knee) of his own.

What's next: Depending where Matthews' contract starts and the salary cap lands, the Mavericks should have just enough room to offer DeAndre Jordan a max deal. If Dallas lands Jordan, the Mavericks will have few options to fill out a remarkably thin roster with just eight players under contract. If Jordan signs elsewhere, Dallas can look at lower-priced centers who would allow them to add another low-cost free agent before using the $2.8 million room exception.



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Arron Afflalo


Team: New York Knicks

Contract: Two years, $16 million

What it means: The Knicks' first addition in free agency was Afflalo, theoretically a 3-and-D wing. In practice, Afflalo failed to live up to either label last season. While he competes defensively, Afflalo has never rated well defensively by plus-minus metrics -- RPM rated him 73rd at the position defensively in 2014-15. His offense has come and gone, and 2014-15 was a down year. Afflalo shot just 35.4 percent from beyond the arc and posted a below-average .533 true shooting percentage. So despite the relatively low price tag, Afflalo still doesn't look like a good buy.

What's next: ESPN's Marc Stein reported Thursday night that center Robin Lopez plans to sign in New York, presuming the Knicks don't unexpectedly land DeAndre Jordan. Before signing Lopez, New York had about $20 million to spend, so the Knicks will have room for only one smaller piece. They might look for a power forward to avoid rushing rookie Kristaps Porzingis into the starting lineup.





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Ed Davis


Team: Portland Trail Blazers

Contract: Three years, $20 million

What it means: Portland continued its strategy of pursuing players in their mid-20s on mid-tier contracts, getting Davis to go along with small forward Al-Farouq Aminu. Davis, a high-percentage finisher who excels in the pick-and-roll game, is projected as worth $38 million over the next three years. His contract could be one of free agency's better values.

What's next: Even if Aldridge leaves, the Blazers have a full frontcourt with Davis joining newly acquired Mason Plumlee and Noah Vonleh and holdovers Chris Kaman and Meyers Leonard. They still have enough cap space to maintain Aldridge's rights. Should he walk, Portland would have $25-plus million to add to the perimeter or take on bad salaries in exchange for future picks or players.





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Aron Baynes


Team: Detroit Pistons

Contract: Three years, as high as $20 million

What it means: Baynes, who quietly re-signed with the San Antonio Spurs for $2.1 million as a restricted free agent last summer, got a massive raise from the Pistons. Though Baynes is coming off his best NBA season and the cap is rising, this looks like a stretch. I have Baynes' value projected at about $11 million over the next three years; the Pistons' offer may be for nearly double that, per a report by Stein. Worse still, Baynes plays the same position as Detroit's best player (Andre Drummond), and it's unlikely the two traditional big men can play together, making this deal difficult to understand.

What's next: The Pistons later added three players, most notably forward Marcus Morris, in a trade with the Phoenix Suns. Detroit still has about $12 million to spend before re-signing restricted free agent Reggie Jackson, whose cap hold is a paltry $5.5 million. It's unclear where the Pistons might focus their attention with a rotation that is now relatively full.
 

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Aron Baynes


Team: Detroit Pistons

Contract: Three years, as high as $20 million

What it means: Baynes, who quietly re-signed with the San Antonio Spurs for $2.1 million as a restricted free agent last summer, got a massive raise from the Pistons. Though Baynes is coming off his best NBA season and the cap is rising, this looks like a stretch. I have Baynes' value projected at about $11 million over the next three years; the Pistons' offer may be for nearly double that, per a report by Stein. Worse still, Baynes plays the same position as Detroit's best player (Andre Drummond), and it's unlikely the two traditional big men can play together, making this deal difficult to understand.

What's next: The Pistons later added three players, most notably forward Marcus Morris, in a trade with the Phoenix Suns. Detroit still has about $12 million to spend before re-signing restricted free agent Reggie Jackson, whose cap hold is a paltry $5.5 million. It's unclear where the Pistons might focus their attention with a rotation that is now relatively full.





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Thomas Robinson


Team: Brooklyn Nets

Contract: Two years, minimum



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Shane Larkin


Team: Nets

Contract: Two years, $3 million

What it means: Having already committed more than $90 million in 2015-16 salary, the Nets did some shopping from the discount aisle Thursday, signing former first-round picks Larkin and Robinson to low-risk deals. Larkin showed promise as a pick-and-roll point guard at Miami, but his small stature has limited his NBA career to date. Robinson, though unlikely to ever fulfill the potential that made him the No. 5 overall pick in 2012, was effective as an energy rebounder off the bench after joining the Philadelphia 76erslate last season. Given the cost, both deals are smart gambles if limited in upside.

What's next: Brooklyn now has 12 players signed to guaranteed contracts, along with three on deals that are partially or non-guaranteed, so the Nets have limited roster spots to work with. They may bring back restricted free agent Mirza Teletovic.





nba_g_tav_65x90.jpg




Walter Tavares


Team: Atlanta Hawks

Contract: Unknown

What it means: The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported Thursday that the Hawks had signed Tavares, a 2014 second-round pick, to a multi-year contract. Because of his rebounding and shot-blocking, the 7-foot-3 Tavares projects as one of the best players overseas whose rights are held by an NBA team. It's unclear how much he'll help next season, especially with newly acquired Tiago Splitter and Al Horford also in the mix for playing time at center, but the Hawks can take a more active role in Tavares' development with him stateside.

What's next: The big question is how Atlanta will sign Tavares. If the Hawks move a player under contract, they might be able to use a sliver of cap space remaining after adding Splitter and re-signing Paul Millsap to sign Tavares to a three- or four-year contract. Otherwise, Atlanta would probably have to dip into its room exception, taking away the team's best option for replacing departed wing DeMarre Carroll.
 
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