2016 draft sneak peek: Ben Simmons is the lone star in a weak class
We've had two straight stellar NBA drafts -- 2014 gave us four credible choices (
Andrew Wiggins,
Jabari Parker,
Dante Exum and
Joel Embiid) at No. 1, and 2015 gave us five great picks (
Karl-Anthony Towns,
D'Angelo Russell,
Jahlil Okafor,
Kristaps Porzingis and
Emmanuel Mudiay) at the top.
Those kinds of drafts don't come along very often, especially in back-to-back years. The 2016 draft looks considerably weaker.
Although it doesn't mean 2016 will be similar to 2013 (one of the worst drafts in the past decade), the talent drops off pretty quickly after the first three picks. The good news is the guy at the top, LSU freshman
Ben Simmons, is tank-worthy and a potential franchise player.
To see our top 100 for 2016, click
here.
The top 5 prospects
1. Ben Simmons, F, Fr., LSU
Simmons' game should fit great in the new NBA, which is obsessed with playmaking forwards. He has modeled his game after
LeBron James. At 6-foot-10, 240 pounds, he likes to play like a point guard. He can handle the ball, has excellent floor vision and is a good enough athlete to get wherever he wants on the floor. He's not the athlete LeBron was and his jump shot needs improvement, but in my conversations with scouts and GMs (many of them drooled over him all week in practices at the Nike Hoop Summit), he was hands down the choice to be No. 1.
"If you understand the game of basketball," one GM said, "I don't know how you can watch him and not see a special, special basketball player. I'd take him over anyone in the 2015 NBA draft. He's just scratching the surface of what he could be."
2. Skal Labissiere, C, Fr., Kentucky
Simmons' top competition for the No. 1 pick will come from Labissiere, a 7-foot big man who will try to follow
Anthony Davis and Towns as the next great Kentucky big man. Labissiere's stock soared in practices at the Nike Hoop Summit. He can score in the post and on the perimeter (although given the way John Calipari coaches, I think we'll just see his post game in 2015-16 at Kentucky), and he's skilled as both a rebounder and rim protector. However, Labissiere isn't the athlete that Davis is, nor does he have that elite length. That makes a difference when projecting his ceiling.
"He's the only big man I'm really excited about in [next] year's draft," one GM told me. "There are several other solid ones, but he's the only one that I think has a chance to be really good. My only issue is that his ceiling, I think, is really good. I'm not sure he's an elite enough athlete to ever make it to great."
3. Jaylen Brown, G/F, Fr., Cal
Brown is the athletic freak. He has the body of a NFL linebacker (think
Stanley Johnson) and explosive athletic ability. He can jump out of the gym. He has a 7-1 wingspan and is fearless attacking the rim. If he can hone his jump shot (he's made some major improvements in the past year) and play in attack mode all the time (he can be a bit passive), he'll have superstar written all over him.
"He's a power wing," one NBA GM said, "with an emphasis on power. I'm not sure I've seen a kid with his body and explosiveness at his age. If the basketball part catches up to the physical gifts he has, he's going to have a very successful NBA career."
4. Brandon Ingram, SF, Fr., Duke
After Simmons, Labissiere and Brown, there's a drop-off. Ingram's stock has been steadily rising this spring. He has elite size (6-10 with a 7-3 wingspan) for his position and a great jumper, and he is a very good athlete. Skinny doesn't quite do his skeletal frame justice, though. He'll have to add a ton of weight to make an impact in the NBA.
5. Malik Pope, SF, So, San Diego State
Pope is the most controversial selection here. A number of NBA GMs and scouts have him ranked this high; others have him in the 20s. He impressed on his first day at the under-19s tryouts for Team USA but was then cut from the team. The physical tools are there for him to be a dominant pro. He has great size and athletic ability for his position and can stroke from deep. He and Ingram are similar in many ways. He just lacks lots of game experience after missing his last two years of high school with a broken leg and playing a supporting role off the bench as a freshman. He could've been a late-lottery to mid-first-round pick had he declared for the 2015 draft. If his game expands this season, the talent is top-five for sure.
Major themes of the 2016 class
As you get ready to dig into our initial
2016 Top 100, which will debut in a couple of weeks, here's a look at four themes for next year's draft:
1. A so-so freshman class
Freshmen will continue to have a huge impact. NBA commissioner Adam Silver is trying to change that, but for now, one-and-dones are the true stars of the draft. In2015, eight freshmen -- Towns, Russell, Okafor, Johnson, Winslow, Myles Turner, Trey Lyles and Devin Booker -- went in the lottery. In 2016, we are projecting another eight -- Simmons, Labissiere, Brown, Ingram, Maryland's
Diamond Stone, Marquette's
Henry Ellenson, Kansas'
Cheick Diallo and Mississippi State's
Malik Newman -- to make it into the lottery.
Six other freshmen -- UK's
Jamal Murray and
Isaiah Briscoe, LSU's
Antonio Blakeney, Cal's
Ivan Rabb, Duke's
Derryck Thornton and UNLV's
Stephen Zimmerman -- are possible first-rounders.
Clearly, the numbers are there. But the quality? After Simmons, Labissiere, Brown and maybe Ingram, none of those other players would've cracked the lottery in the 2015 draft. Overall, this recruiting class was seen as one of the weakest in the past decade. There just aren't a lot of game-changers -- at least not yet.
2. A depleted sophomore and junior class
Only a small handful of talented players decided to skip the 2015 draft and return to college. Just about everyone with a shot at the first round threw his hat into the ring. Only two returning college players -- Pope and Utah's
Jakob Poeltl -- ended up cracking our top 10.
However, a number of interesting returning players should be in this draft. We're projecting Notre Dame's
Demetrius Jackson and Kansas'
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk as potential lottery picks in 2016. Several other returning players, including Duke's
Grayson Allen, Providence's
Kris Dunn, Wisconsin's
Nigel Hayes, North Carolina's
Justin Jackson, Gonzaga's
Domantas Sabonis, Michigan's
Caris LeVert and Georgetown's
Isaac Copeland, could all end up in the middle of the first round and possibly higher, with excellent seasons.
3. A solid crop of international prospects
The 2015 international draft class was strong at the top. Porzingis and Croatia's
Mario Hezonja went in the top five. But after that, there was a severe drop-off.
The good news is the 2016 international class has more depth than the 2015 class did. The bad news is it lacks the star power at the top.
Croatian forward
Dragan Bender could become a top-10 pick. Turkish guard
Furkan Korkmaz, China's
Zhou Qi and forward
Egemen Guven are potential late-lottery picks to mid-first-rounders. In addition, France's
Alpha Kaba,
Timothe Luwawu and
Petr Cornelieare potential first-rounders.
4. 3s and 5s rule the draft
In 2016, five small forwards and four centers take nine spaces in our top 10.
Overall, we have eight small forwards, seven power forwards, five shooting guards, five centers and five point guards going in the first round.
The NBA is dominated by guards, but in this draft, the guards are hard to come by.
The hunt for elite point guards will be especially difficult this year. We don't have one point guard ranked in the lottery right now. And we don't have any shooting guards ranked in the top 10.
The pick situation
Another key to look at as we assess the 2016 draft: Which teams have their picks, have multiple picks or are out of the draft?
The Sixers and Celtics could each own four first-round picks in 2016. The Nuggets could have three first-rounders.
The only two teams that are completely out of the draft next year are the
Brooklyn Nets and
New York Knicks. However, several teams might have to give up picks depending on their records. Here's a look at other picks in 2016 that could be on the move:
• The Sixers own the Lakers' pick (if it falls between 4-30), the Heat's pick (if it falls between 11-30) and the Thunder's pick (if it falls between 16-30).
• The Celtics own the Nets' pick, the Mavs' pick (if it falls between 8-30) and possibly the Wolves pick (if it falls between 13-30).
• The Nuggets can swap picks with the Knicks next year, and they own the Blazers' pick (if it falls between 15-30) and possibly the Grizzlies' pick (if it falls between 6-14).
• The Raptors own the Knicks' pick (which will come from New York or Denver -- see above).
• The Suns own the Cavs' pick (if it falls between 11-30).
Overall, the 2016 draft class is rounding out to be pretty solid -- somewhere between those of 2014 and 2013. The bigs are the appeal, but there just isn't a lot of star power here outside of Simmons.
Luckily, it can get better. Some players we're not yet talking about will rise -- that happens every year.
Noah Vonleh and
Nik Stauskas weren't listed as lottery picks before the 2013-14 season, for example. As the camps and international tournaments get underway, look for further reports, including regular Big Boards, updates to the Top 100, Ford-Bilas and Ford-Pelton debates, mock drafts and more in our year-round draft coverage.
