Ford/Bilas: Debating the NBA draft's best big men
Every day leading up to the draft, for every team in the league, NBA scouts, executives, head coaches and ownership meet in draft war rooms and hash out who the best players in the draft are. Often the differences among them are minuscule. But on draft night, they have one pick and must choose between Player A and Player B.
We've asked Jay Bilas and Chad Ford, our two resident NBA draft experts, to look at their personal lists, find areas where there are discrepancies, and make the case for the player they have rated higher.
We tackled point guards on Thursday and wings on Friday. Today, we take a look at the big men.
1. Jahlil Okafor vs. Karl-Anthony Towns
Bilas on Okafor: There are two questions at No. 1. The first is, do you take Okafor or Towns? The second is, given the way the game is going, why is the decision between two big guys? D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay should probably be in that discussion, as well. This is the most difficult of decisions, and I am on an island here, but I give a very slight edge to Okafor. Towns is the more versatile player. He can do more things at a high level, and he is a terrific free throw shooter, while Okafor is a poor one, shooting only 51 percent from the line last season. But Okafor is dominant in one area, and that is low-post scoring. Okafor is a great finisher, has a vast array of post moves, and should be a 20-point scorer in the NBA. His footwork is tremendous, his touch outstanding, and his hands are soft and huge. I'm not arguing against Towns, who is a worthy No. 1 pick. All I am saying is I like Okafor a little bit better. That said, I'm second-guessing that decision constantly.
Ford: I hear you, Jay. Let's not forget that from July through February virtually every scout and GM in the NBA had Okafor at No. 1. So it's not ridiculous at all to still have him here. You are right, he is not only the best low-post scorer in the draft but also the best I've seen in the past decade in the draft. That has to count for something. My concerns are on the defensive end, where he was pretty bad, and at the free throw line, where he was awful. Ten years ago, Okafor would've been the No. 1 pick, hands down. But with the way the NBA is changing, and given Towns' superiority in every other area besides low-post scoring, I'm going with Towns.
Ford on Towns: Usually, I feel that these debates are splitting hairs. It's Player 1A vs. Player 1B. I don't feel that way about the Towns-Okafor debate. I think Towns is clearly the best player in the draft. While he's not as polished as Okafor right now on the block offensively, he has all the tools to get there. And he has an advantage everywhere else. He's a better athlete and a much better shooter, with 3-point range. He shoots 80 percent from the line while Okafor shoots 51 percent. And Towns is a better defender, rebounder and rim protector. He's highly intelligent, and I love his work ethic. He's the first guy in the gym every day and the last one to leave. I don't see any red flags from Towns, which is rare for a player his age. His weaknesses are all correctable. I think he'll dominate on both ends of the floor, and he has a chance, at his peak, to be a top-10 player in the league.
Bilas: How can I argue against that? Towns is a better defender and shot-blocker. Okafor has great feet and the ability to run the floor, but needs to show it more consistently. I do believe Okafor getting hurt in February was a factor in his play, and he is capable of defending pick-and-roll situations much better. The real question for me is, because I favor Okafor's dominant low-post game, could Towns become dominant in the post over time? Neither player is a superior athlete, and maybe that is why I am on the fence, leaning toward Okafor.
2. Willie Cauley-Stein vs. Myles Turner
Bilas on Cauley-Stein: WCS is a spectacular athlete, world-class in his ability to run the floor, get off his feet and move laterally. He can guard a big man and guard a point guard on the perimeter and be really disruptive. But WCS is only a defender. He does not score in the post or facing up, and he is not a big-time rebounder, just a good one. But his defensive range and versatility are jaw-dropping, and that is where his value is. If it is offense you are looking for, Turner is the better prospect, and he can block shots, too.
I am actually thinking about moving WCS down on my Best Available list, which I usually don't do this close to the draft. His lack of offensive production gives me some real pause, and I don't see a Dennis Rodman or DeAndre Jordan comparison as being a good case for WCS to go in the top 10. He is a defensive specialist only right now, and I am rethinking putting him in the top 10.
Ford: Well, this was one of the toughest ones for me. I think WCS is the most athletic and coordinated 7-footer I've ever seen. I don't think it's hyperbole at all to say he can guard all five positions and could win multiple defensive player of the year honors. As special as he is defensively, he's equally weak offensively. Other than fast breaks and the occasional 10- to 15-foot jumper (which he shoots better than you think), you're getting zero offense from him, and that's an issue in the NBA. I also wonder (and it's just wondering, I certainly don't know) whether WCS has the focus to become the best. He might. He certainly has the intelligence. But will the work ethic be there?
Ford on Turner: I'm a sucker for upside, and Turner, in my opinion, has a lot of it. He has great size for his position and he'll have a very good NBA body in time. He's a good athlete (though not nearly as good as WCS). He's an excellent rim protector. And I really think he'll develop into a very good stretch big man. His shot is fluid. The challenge with Turner is being patient. He struggled at times as a freshman -- especially against top-level talent. He won't come in and impact the game from day one. But did you see WCS at 19? Turner was much better as a freshman than Cauley-Stein was. Down the road, I think Turner's upside is that of a top-five player. And I think he has the makeup to get there in time.
Bilas: That is fair. Upside is an important factor. But the question for me is, how much upside does Turner really have? Turner has a very nice touch on his shot and a good turnaround jumper, and he has skills. He can rebound on the defensive end, and he is a good rim protector who blocks and challenges shots. But if you look closely at his numbers, his best performances were against the worst teams Texas played. Against smaller conference teams and sub-.500 teams, Turner was very good. When he played against big-conference teams and winning teams, his numbers dropped precipitously. Is that dispositive of the issue? Of course not, but it does give you some pause.
3. Frank Kaminsky vs. Trey Lyles
Bilas on Kaminsky: I love Kaminsky's game. He is very skilled, can really shoot the ball, and will be a very good pick-and-pop big guy in the NBA. He can face up and play in the post, and he uses fakes really well to keep defenders off balance. Right now, he is better than Lyles. But the question is, will Lyles get better and pass Kaminsky? This is your upside decision, really. I think this can be a coin flip. Both players will be taken in the same area of the draft, and I wouldn't question the choice of either player. I would favor Kaminsky because he is better now; he can do more things now and is the vastly superior shooter, and I think he has the chance to improve going forward, as well.
Ford: Kaminsky was the best player in college basketball this year. And if the NBA were the NCAA, I think he'd warrant a higher pick. He's clearly a terrific shooter, can score off the bounce, and has a high basketball IQ. But I wonder how his game translates to the NBA. The offense Wisconsin ran (rightfully) was totally focused on Kaminsky. That won't happen in the NBA. And while Kaminsky sees himself as a 4 in the mode of Dirk Nowitzki, I can't find any NBA scouts who think that. They all see a 5 in the Spencer Hawesmold.
Ford on Lyles: I'll admit that Lyles has me more confused than most. Watching him at Kentucky this year didn't give you a lot of clues as to what he'll be like in the NBA. He played out of position (because of Kentucky's depth) and was never featured, as a player his caliber normally would be. He has size, a high basketball IQ, and a good face-the-basket game. In time, I think he'll increase his range to the 3-point line. When I look at what he did as a freshman and compare it to Kaminsky, and I see a kid who, at the same age, was much more skilled. In three years, how good will Lyles be? Better than Kaminsky? My guess is yes.
Bilas: If you believe Lyles will be better in three or four years, you won't get an argument from me. That is a reasonable judgment. But when I hear the comparison of where a guy was as a freshman, and how far he has come, I hear a parent talking about how early his or her child started walking. There's a big part of me that thinks, who cares? They can all walk at a certain age, and nobody really asks when they started. Kaminsky is a late bloomer, but he bloomed. The fact that Lyles was better earlier doesn't mean he will bloom beyond Kaminsky. This is as close a call as Okafor and Towns, just further down the list.
Bonus question: Should Kristaps Porzingis be in the discussion for No. 1?
Bilas: Yes, absolutely. I have not seen Porzingis in person, but just watching him on tape provides a tantalizing view of a 7-footer with ridiculous shooting skills. He has range and a great stroke, and so many respected basketball people love his future prospects. You have to consider him at No. 1, whether you wind up taking him or not. I love the positives of Porzingis, but I also question a few things. He is not a great rebounder, is not physical, and does not operate in the post on either end of the floor. His crazy offensive skill may trump his negatives, but I am not a believer. I felt the same way about Andrea Bargnani, but people I trust have said Bargnani's career will not be repeated by Porzingis. I still like Okafor, Towns, Russell, Mudiay and Justise Winslow before Porzingis, but I certainly don't feel rock-solid about it. That's the thing about this draft -- there is a ton of talent, and we all have reasonable beliefs and opinions about players. But while we may differ, I wouldn't try to talk anyone out of his opinion in favor of mine. There are too many close calls in this one, and reasonable basketball minds can certainly differ. I would love to take a trip in a DeLorean to 2025 and see what our current projections would look like then!
Ford: Yes, Porzingis is that talented. Athletic players who are 7-2 and shoot 3s and run the floor and protect the rim don't come along very often. When NBA guys are using comps like Nowitzki, Pau Gasol and even Kevin Durant, you have to look long and hard at that.
However, I think Towns is the best player in this draft, so if I were the Minnesota Timberwolves, it would be Towns. But at No. 2? Personally, I'd take Porzingis over Okafor, Russell or Mudiay. It's very, very close, but that's where he'd rank for me personally.
