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Where top draft picks fit in their organization's prospect ranks
Where top draft picks fit in their organization's prospect ranks
Where top draft picks fit in their organization's prospect ranks
Every year, as the MLB draft winds down, I get questions from readers about where each team's top pick might rank among prospects within their organizations.
Here I quickly address that question for the top-10 draft picks, as well as three others I liked beyond the top 10, ranking them as prospects within their farm system and looking at who is ranked close to them.
New No. 1 prospect
Swanson is easily the top prospect in a system with several power-armed starters, none of whom is quite as complete a prospect as Swanson is right now.
New No. 1 prospect (Bregman) and No. 3 prospect (Tucker)
Bregman will enter the Astros' system as their top prospect, with Carlos Correaalready in the majors and the team's best hitting prospects just as far from the majors as the LSU shortstop is. Outfielder Brett Phillips, who is having a solid season in high-A, is second; he still has a very high upside and is further along than Tucker, but he's not as polished as Bregman.
New No. 1 prospect
Probably the easiest No. 1 call for any team. The Rockies got the top prospect on my board in the draft, and their top three prospects coming into the year have all either had injuries or struggled on the field. Their No. 4 prospect coming into the season, Ryan McMahon, has actually performed better in high-A Modesto than he did last year in hitter-friendly low-A Asheville, a strong positive sign for a player who already had star-caliber tools.
New No. 3 prospect
The Rangers' top prospect right now is Nomar Mazara, who is performing across the board as a 20-year-old in Double-A. After him it's a jumble now that Jorge Alfaro is done for the year due to a major ankle injury. I'd put right-hander Luis Ortiz second in the system at the moment, with Tate third ahead of Jake Thompson and Lewis Brinson.
New No. 3 prospect
Lord Byron (Buxton) is reigning -- by which I mean he hit ninth in his major league debut -- in Minnesota, moving Miguel Sano up to the No. 1 spot in the system, with Jose Berrios at No. 2 and Jay slotting in at 3.
New No. 5 prospect
Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers, Manuel Margot and Henry Owens are all ahead of Benintendi, and there's a decent case to be made for Javier Guerra being ahead of him as well. This system happens to be particularly strong, and I rated Benintendi a bit lower than where he was taken in the draft.
New No. 3 prospect
Though I believe strongly, as do most scouts I've talked to who've seen him pitch, that Fulmer's long-term future is in the bullpen due to a violent delivery and trouble missing bats within the strike zone, he's probably the White Sox's third-best prospect at this point after shortstop Tim Anderson and right-hander Spencer Adams. Fulmer is in a class with Francelis Montas, the hard-throwing right-hander at Double-A Birmingham who might not have the command to remain a starter, and Micah Johnson, the athletic second baseman who is just eight days of service time on the active roster from losing his rookie eligibility.
New No. 3 prospect
Kyle Schwarber is the Cubs' top prospect by far -- I'm assuming he'll return to the minors early next week after this brief cup of coffee -- but Happ is in the mix for the second slot. He's closer to the majors than shortstop Gleyber Torres, who is hitting very well in low-A as an 18-year-old, but without the latter's star upside. Happ already has signed and should be able to follow Schwarber's path from last year; the former Indiana catcher finished in high-A, so he was able to begin his first full pro season in Double-A.
New No. 4 prospect (Kingery) and No. 5 prospect (Randolph)
The Phillies' top prospect, shortstop J.P. Crawford, may be the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball by Labor Day, assuming Corey Seager is recalled by then and Crawford isn't. Aaron Nola and Roman Quinn are second and third, and even though Kingery was picked a round later than Randolph, I rated him just a bit higher in my top 100. Randolph has enormous offensive upside but no known position; the speedy Kingery has a lower ceiling, but he's more advanced and can play the heck out of second base.
New No. 5 prospect
The Rays' system has seen a number of strong seasons from prospects already in the system, with my breakout prospect pick for them, Blake Snell, emerging as their top pitching prospect, and 2012 first-rounder Richie Shaffer hitting .276/.375/.537 between Double- and Triple-A, with 14 homers. Whitley is one of the highest-upside prospects in the system now, but with his hit tool still a bit of a question mark, I'd slot him below Snell, the injured Daniel Robertson, Shaffer and shortstop Willy Adames.
New No. 2 prospect
Orlando Arcia is the clear No. 1 prospect in the Brewers' system, so Clark slots in second, just ahead of Michael Reed, the team's athletic Double-A center fielder who has realized his power potential at age 22.
New No. 3 prospect
I'm a big believer in Newman's bat, given his history of incredible contact rates everywhere he has played, but he's entering a strong system. He's behind potential No. 1 starter Tyler Glasnow and five-tool outfielder Austin Meadows.
arthurli22
Rookie
How the pros do it: Ranking NBA draft prospects by tiers
Consensus is a word that should be used carefully when you talk about the NBA draft.
Occasionally a prospect emerges who is clearly better than anyone else in the draft (see Anthony Davis in 2012, John Wall in 2010, Blake Griffin in 2009, LeBron James in 2003, Yao Ming in 2002, Tim Duncan in 1997, Shaquille O'Neal in 1992), but more often, if you put 10 GMs into a room and ask them who the best player in the draft is, you'll get three or four answers.
The debates get louder and more diverse as you move further down the draft.
This year is no exception. With less than a week to go before the draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves are debating whom to take at No. 1 -- Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor or D'Angelo Russell. If the Wolves, who employ dozens of full-time pros who work at this all year, can't figure it out, how can we create a consensus ranking?
We want to believe that there's a Big Board in the sky that knows all. It doesn't exist. Reasonable minds can differ on prospects, and as much as we all love ranking players 1-100, it's not the best or most preferred way to do it.
This year, five players have a case to be picked No. 1 -- Towns, Okafor, Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay and Kristaps Porzingis.
Whom do you choose to draft? And how?
NBA teams watch prospects play thousands of hours of games. They go to practice and camps. Hire guys from MIT to create statistical solutions. Work out players, give them psychological tests, do background checks and conduct personal interviews. Yet still there is very little consensus.
When you factor in the debate between taking the best player available and which player a team needs most, the situation further muddies itself.
To make sense of all this, the past few years I've chronicled a draft ranking system called the tier system, which several teams employ.
By this method, teams group players into tiers based on overall talent, then rank the players in each tier based on team need. A more detailed explanation of how the system works can be found here.
So how do things break down? After I talked to several GMs and scouts whose teams employ this system, here is how the tiers look this year.
Players are listed alphabetically in each tier.
Tier 1
Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Kentucky
Ahead of last year's draft, we had three players in this category: Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker. This category usually is reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars/franchise players. Just three other players since we started this column in 2009 -- Griffin, Wall and Davis -- have been ranked in this slot. You have to be elite to get here.
This year was one of the toughest yet. Five players were nominated for Tier 1 by various teams. However, only one player was consistently mentioned by all of them: Towns. Although some teams don't see major separation between him and the players in Tier 2, others feel that there's a gap and that he's the only one in the draft who has the potential to be a top-10 player in the league.
Tier 2
Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Congo
Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
Kristaps Porzingis, F/C, Latvia
D'Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State
This is a very strong Tier 2. Mudiay, Okafor, Porzingis and Russell all have a claim to be the No. 1 pick. In fact, Okafor was the favorite to be the No. 1 pick since July, and several teams put Russell on par with Towns. Both received votes for Tier 1 but not enough to move them up.
Tier 2 is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player on the list has a weakness that some teams feel will keep him from being a superstar. For Mudiay, it's shooting. For Okafor and Russell, it's athleticism and defense. For Porzingis, it's a thin body and questionable position. Nevertheless, each of the four has a strength that should propel him to an All-Star Game in his career.
One fun note: Last year we wrote the column before Porzingis, then regarded as a Tier 4 prospect, had withdrawn from the draft. So he has jumped up two tiers.
Tier 3
Willie Cauley-Stein, F/C, Kentucky
Mario Hezonja, G/F, Croatia
Justise Winslow, G/F, Duke
This is a very strong Tier 3, as well. Hezonja and Winslow received Tier 2 votes from teams. However, both fell just short of the cut.
This tier usually is reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers. All three players should go in the top 10. Hezonja, especially, has some star appeal. Having eight players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft, but not quite as strong as the 2014 draft, which had 12 players in the first three tiers.
Tier 4
Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
Sam Dekker, F, Wisconsin
Jerian Grant, G, Notre Dame
Stanley Johnson, G/F, Arizona
Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin
Kevon Looney, F, UCLA
Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
Kelly Oubre, G/F, Kansas
Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
Bobby Portis, PF, Arkanas
Myles Turner, F/C, Texas
Tier 4 typically is late-lottery to mid-first-round selections in a normal draft -- selections 10 through 20. This year, that tier is roughly 9-19 on our Big Board. Lots of talented players in this tier project to be starters or high-level rotation players.
Here, even the consensus in tiers starts to break down.
Guys really are all over the place. Booker, Kaminsky, Lyles and Turner each scored a few votes for Tier 3. Payne also picked up a Tier 3 vote. Still, the majority of teams had them ranked in Tier 4. Oubre, Grant and Looney had some Tier 5 votes, but most of their votes were in Tier 4.
Tier 5
Justin Anderson, SG, Virginia
Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, Arizona
R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State
Tyus Jones, PG, Duke
Terry Rozier, G, Louisville
Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV
Delon Wright, PG, Utah
This next group is one of the smaller Tier 5s we've had and shows the drop-off in talent as we get into the 20s. By pick 25 or so, teams really struggle to come up with players they think can make the league.
This area of the draft is typically reserved for rotation players: They're unlikely to start for good teams but could become solid role players off the bench. A few teams had Hollis-Jefferson, Hunter, Jones and Vaughn in Tier 4, but that's not quite enough for them to make the cut. Rozier, Harrell and Wright got a few Tier 6 votes.
Tier 6
Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas
Anthony Brown, SG, Stanford
Rakeem Christmas, F/C, Syracuse
Olivier Hanlan, G, Boston College
Guillermo Hernangomez, C, Spain
Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky
Jarell Martin, PF, LSU
Chris McCullough, F, Syracuse
Cedi Osman, F, Turkey
Robert Upshaw, C, Washington
Christian Wood, PF, UNLV
Joseph Young, G, Oregon
In this tier are the players one or more teams ranked in their top 30. A few -- Brown, Martin and McCullough -- got Tier 5 votes. The rest are likely second-round picks. This list is typically quite a bit longer. Again, the talent level of the draft drops off a cliff as we get into these lower tiers.
Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect. But most teams in the NBA run it, and they have found success with it. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared with traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool for gauging which players a team should draft.
Figdcotton
Why are you mad at a real niguh??
Power moves: Ideal free-agent fits for Western Conference teams
Since we checked in with the top objectives in free agency for each team in the East, the offseason actually kicked off in earnest.
The Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons got things rolling with our first trade since the season ended, with Ersan Ilyasova going to the Pistons for Caron Butler and Shawne Williams. (You can hear my thoughts on that swap here.)
Now that we're in a transaction kind of mood, let's move on and look at what each team in the West will look to accomplish when the free-agency period begins at the beginning of July.
Dallas Mavericks
Likely cap position: under
Top objective: figure out the backcourt
Possible targets: After years of being capped out under the old CBA, financial flexibility has marked the Mavericks' offseasons since their 2011 title. This summer will be no exception. Assuming Dallas renounces Rajon Rondo and Monta Ellis, who has a player option for next season he's expected to forgo, the Mavs will once again be players in the free-agent market. This means Dallas would be looking at piecing together a brand-new backcourt during an era when guard play is at a premium.
Dallas also needs to shore up its defense, a process that begins with either pursuing center DeAndre Jordan through free agency or retaining their own free agent, Tyson Chandler. As for possible backcourt targets from the market, right now it's tough for Dallas because the premier free agents are generally in the frontcourt.
However, two Miami guards with player options could make sense: Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade. OK, it would be shocking if Wade were actually to leave the Heat. But if he does, who makes more sense than the Mavericks, who are trying to make one or two more runs before Dirk Nowitzki calls it a career? A dark-horse possibility could be the Spurs' Danny Green.
Denver Nuggets
Likely cap position: under
Top objective: take it easy, fellas
Possible targets: For lack of a better word, the Nuggets are a mess. There is some talent on the roster, but it doesn't fit together well. Denver's best player is Ty Lawson, and he appears to have developed a tumultuous relationship with the team's management, which is also kind of hard to figure out. And, not for nothing, the Nuggets don't have a coach.
They are rumored to be interested in the capable Mike Malone, who nevertheless is about the last coach you'd want for a team that plays its home games in Denver and should take full advantage of the thin air by running ... a lot. When things are this muddled, the best thing a Nuggets fan can hope for is they avoid long-term entanglements like the plague. Wait until someone establishes a direction and begins to construct a comprehensible foundation of talent.
Golden State Warriors
Likely cap position: way, way over
Top objective: retain Draymond Green
Possible targets: Green means so much to the Warriors that even though he's sure to draw an eight-figure offer in restricted free agency, possibly even the max, Golden State has little choice but to match. The good things are that this is still a fairly young Warriors roster, they won 67 games and might be about to win a championship. The status quo is very appealing. However, keeping Green would mean Golden State could field an unheard-of six players earning eight digits next season. Even a free agent inked for the smaller midlevel exception would be really expensive on that balance sheet. In an ideal world, the Warriors find someone to take on the last year of David Lee's contract.
Houston Rockets
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: keep their younger free agents
Possible targets: The Rockets could operate as an under-cap team by renouncing some of their free agents and trade exceptions, but doing so wouldn't free up enough cap space to make a major free-agent splash. Instead, the Rockets are tasked with trying to retain young free agents Patrick Beverley, Kostas Papanikolaou and K.J. McDaniels while still trying to make that one move that puts them over the top in the Western Conference.
Keeping Beverley is imperative, unless a comparable defender can be found that can pair with the ball-dominant James Harden in the backcourt. That player would have to be willing to sign for the midlevel exception. Good luck with that.
So the Rockets need to keep their guys and hope to find an offensive playmaker for that exception. Like a lot of teams, Houston could use a veteran free-agent threat like Mo Williams or Jamal Crawford. Unlike a lot of teams, the Rockets have an on-the-cusp championship roster to entice a player like that to sign.
Los Angeles Clippers
Likely cap position: hopefully over
Top objective: keep DeAndre Jordan
Possible targets: The "hopefully" qualifier above stems from an uncomfortable truth for the Clippers. If they are under the cap, that means Jordan has moved on. The Clippers have no means to replace him, unless by some miracle he were to sign with Dallas, and L.A. could swing a sign-and-trade that involves Mavs free agent Tyson Chandler. Jordan is everything to a Clippers defense that is barely adequate for a title contender.
If Jordan stays, then Doc Rivers turns his attention to upgrading on the wing. The name you will keep hearing will be Paul Pierce, who has a player option for one more year with the Wizards, played for Rivers in Boston and is an L.A. native.
Los Angeles Lakers
Likely cap position: under
Top objective: keep options open
Possible targets: The Lakers will add the No. 2 pick in the upcoming draft to last year's lottery pick, Julius Randle. Rookie point guard Jordan Clarkson proved to be a revelation, though it's an open question if he can replicate last season's production in higher-leverage situations. Still, you add in free-agent-to-be Ed Davis, who will probably opt out and whom the Lakers should retain, and Los Angeles has the makings of a youthful foundation worth building around.
No, it's not going to get Kobe Bryant one more run at his sixth championship ring, but at this point that feels like a nonfactor. The Lakers won't bide their time forever, and they will make their calls to this year's top free agents. But realistically, the Lakers don't have the roster to attract one of those guys. However, if this year's rookie blows up and the team improves organically, then perhaps in 2016 a star free agent will seize the chance to propel the Lakers back to relevance. So take a shot at it this summer, but don't do anything rash. You've stuck it out this long.
Memphis Grizzlies
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: keep Marc Gasol and one big move
Possible targets: The Grizzlies have been a fine team stuck on the second tier for a few seasons now. Any shake-up that involves the loss of Gasol is undesirable; that departure in itself slams Memphis' window of contention shut with such force that it might take years to sweep up the broken glass. Gasol will have plenty of suitors -- as in 30 teams that at least entertain backroom talks about how to get him -- but his public comments at least suggest the Grizz have a fair shot at keeping him around. Still, it will be a tense summer in Memphis.
If Gasol stays, Memphis still has to figure out a way to find the offensive playmaker who could finally get them to the next level in the playoffs. Memphis is nearing the juncture Dallas was at when many were calling for the Mavs to blow up their team. Instead, they went with continuity and tweaks on the margins, and ended up with the 2011 crown. The Grizz hope they are at that point. Ideally, you'd love to see Memphis end up with a playmaker like Jamal Crawford, who alas can earn more by staying put in L.A.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: keeping Kevin Garnett?
Possible targets: For a rebuilding team, Minnesota has a surprisingly large amount of long-term money tied up. That should limit what Flip Saunders tries to do in free agency, but that should hardly distress Wolves fans. The Bucks showed last season that a team can develop a young foundation while simultaneously playing competitive basketball.
However, unlike the Bucks, the Timberwolves don't play in the East. That makes a quick turnaround and a playoff push unlikely, but better days lie ahead. Minnesota already has a terrific group of young talent led by Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins and 24-year-old veteran Ricky Rubio. Now they are about to add another top overall pick, presumably (hopefully) Karl-Anthony Towns. This will give them the top guy of the last three drafts when you include 2013 top pick Anthony Bennett.
Minny has veteran leadership on hand in Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin. That's where keeping Garnett around matters, though he doesn't appear to have a whole lot to offer on the court. As the new collection of talent develops, Garnett gives them continuity and identity, while helping to mentor Towns. These things matter.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: keeping Kevin Garnett?
Possible targets: For a rebuilding team, Minnesota has a surprisingly large amount of long-term money tied up. That should limit what Flip Saunders tries to do in free agency, but that should hardly distress Wolves fans. The Bucks showed last season that a team can develop a young foundation while simultaneously playing competitive basketball.
However, unlike the Bucks, the Timberwolves don't play in the East. That makes a quick turnaround and a playoff push unlikely, but better days lie ahead. Minnesota already has a terrific group of young talent led by Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins and 24-year-old veteran Ricky Rubio. Now they are about to add another top overall pick, presumably (hopefully) Karl-Anthony Towns. This will give them the top guy of the last three drafts when you include 2013 top pick Anthony Bennett.
Minny has veteran leadership on hand in Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin. That's where keeping Garnett around matters, though he doesn't appear to have a whole lot to offer on the court. As the new collection of talent develops, Garnett gives them continuity and identity, while helping to mentor Towns. These things matter.
New Orleans Pelicans
Likely cap position: uncertain
Top objective: improving defense
Possible targets: The Pelicans are at a critical juncture of their presumed ascension. Anthony Davis has already put himself in the "game's best player" conversation. New Orleans improved last season and squeaked into the playoffs despite clear defensive shortcomings. Now, Alvin Gentry is in as head coach, but he's not known as a defensive guru, and anchor center Omer Asik is an unrestricted free agent. What now? The Pelicans have to figure out what they're going to be. Asik is a premier rim protector, but that is also a role that can be filled by Davis.
New Orleans could carve out enough cap space by renouncing their own free agents and swinging a trade to bring in an impact wing. If he can defend, then perhaps Davis and Ryan Anderson could work as a full-time frontcourt, which would allow Gentry to play a style somewhat similar to what has worked for him offensively in the past, though Tyreke Evans' jump shot undermines that to an extent. Retaining Asik and targeting a wing with the midlevel exception is the conservative approach. Given the tepid options on the market, a creative trade might be New Orleans' best bet to balance the roster and take the next step.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: get over the top
Possible targets: The Thunder faces a hefty tax bill next season if the same roster comes back, which would require OKC to match any offers restricted free agents Kyle Singler and Enes Kanter attract on the market. (Advised, unless some team loses its head over Kanter.) This is no time to pinch pennies in Oklahoma City, as Kevin Durant enters the last year of his contract with plenty to prove after his injury-plagued 2014-15 season. A healthy Thunder roster is a title contender as is, complete with star power and complementary role players at every position. A veteran backup playmaker might help if he's willing to sign for the minimum. Jameer Nelson comes to mind. But then someone else would have to go, and not only does OKC have a stocked roster, but they've got stash prospect Josh Huestis waiting in the wings and the last lottery pick in the draft. Sam Presti might want to package some of these young assets in an effort to bring in a veteran role player, but it's hard to see the Thunder doing much in free agency.
Phoenix Suns
Likely cap position: under
Top objective: decide what they want to be
Possible targets: The Suns went guard-heavy with last season's roster construction, then cleared that up a bit when they traded away Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic at the deadline. But they still have a big decision to make this summer on restricted free agentBrandon Knight, who is a terrific player, but is he the long-term backcourt partner for Eric Bledsoe? The Suns also have to decide how much they are willing to spend to keep backup center Brandan Wright. Beyond that, the Suns appear to have a core in place of Bledsoe, emergent center Alex Len and power forward Markieff Morris.
Even if Knight is retained, the Suns need to upgrade on the wing. In-house candidates Archie Goodwin and Reggie Bullock could be ready to step forward to replace outgoing free agents Gerald Green and Marcus Thornton. That still leaves room for a more offense-minded 3 to go with P.J. Tucker and Marcus Morris. The Suns should have money to spend. This is a team that might want to throw a big offer at Kawhi Leonard and see what sticks. A more realistic target is DeMarre Carroll.
Portland Trail Blazers
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: keep their starters
Possible targets: The Blazers have starters LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez headed for unrestricted free agency, and keeping that trio -- in the order listed -- is top priority. Obviously there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Aldridge, but if you want to be an optimist, losing him could represent an opportunity for a team that might be stuck on the second tier of the tough West. Damian Lillard is the foundation player, while Nicolas Batum and a hopefully healthy Matthews are both capable of carrying a heavier offensive load in a post-Aldridge situation.
Meyers Leonard has emerged as a legit stretch big who offers more efficiency, if not dynamism, than Aldridge. If Arron Afflalo opts out and walks, the Blazers could have cash to spend on the frontcourt, where there is some depth in the market. Paul Millsap would make sense with this bunch at the right price.
Sacramento Kings
Likely cap position: under
Top objective: figure out who signs the free agents
Possible targets: Seriously, what in the world is going on in Sacramento? Can we just turn the operation over to George Karl? The Kings can easily walk away from their own free agents and have money to spend this summer. They have a foundation of DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay, two developing guards in Nik Stauskas and Ben McLemore, and the No. 6 pick in the draft. This is a roster short on passing, and it just so happens that Rajon Rondo is going to be a free agent with everything to prove. The Kings might be the one team for whom Rondo, if he's healthy, makes sense, but you don't want to overextend in either dollars or years.
San Antonio Spurs
Likely cap position: under
Top objective: transition to the future
Possible targets: Assuming Tim Duncan doesn't retire and returns to the Spurs on another below-market contract, then matching the max offer coming Kawhi Leonard's way is the top priority. However, if Manu Ginobili retires, it becomes that much more important to keep Danny Green, an unrestricted free agent sure to attract plenty of interest.
But the Spurs have the flexibility to chase a star free agent and they have the talent and organizational stability to interest any of the top big men. It's not hard to imagine Marc Gasol or LaMarcus Aldridge, a central Texas native, becoming the face of the post-Duncan Spurs.
Utah Jazz
Likely cap position: under
Top objective: add shooting
Possible targets: The Jazz are poised to become something special, and they are about to add yet another lottery pick to their extensive collection of such players already on hand. They have the financial structure in place to keep all of these guys when they are ready to be extended, as Utah has already done with Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Alec Burks. As this young group continues to develop together, another deep-shooting threat would help Utah mount a playoff push next season.
You don't want to overspend, though. There are free agents who make sense in a salary vacuum: Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Louis Williams, etc. If Matthews' injury hurts his market value, then that might be a nice upside play. Otherwise, expect the Jazz to stay the course.
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: keeping Kevin Garnett?
Possible targets: For a rebuilding team, Minnesota has a surprisingly large amount of long-term money tied up. That should limit what Flip Saunders tries to do in free agency, but that should hardly distress Wolves fans. The Bucks showed last season that a team can develop a young foundation while simultaneously playing competitive basketball.
However, unlike the Bucks, the Timberwolves don't play in the East. That makes a quick turnaround and a playoff push unlikely, but better days lie ahead. Minnesota already has a terrific group of young talent led by Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins and 24-year-old veteran Ricky Rubio. Now they are about to add another top overall pick, presumably (hopefully) Karl-Anthony Towns. This will give them the top guy of the last three drafts when you include 2013 top pick Anthony Bennett.
Minny has veteran leadership on hand in Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Martin. That's where keeping Garnett around matters, though he doesn't appear to have a whole lot to offer on the court. As the new collection of talent develops, Garnett gives them continuity and identity, while helping to mentor Towns. These things matter.
New Orleans Pelicans
Likely cap position: uncertain
Top objective: improving defense
Possible targets: The Pelicans are at a critical juncture of their presumed ascension. Anthony Davis has already put himself in the "game's best player" conversation. New Orleans improved last season and squeaked into the playoffs despite clear defensive shortcomings. Now, Alvin Gentry is in as head coach, but he's not known as a defensive guru, and anchor center Omer Asik is an unrestricted free agent. What now? The Pelicans have to figure out what they're going to be. Asik is a premier rim protector, but that is also a role that can be filled by Davis.
New Orleans could carve out enough cap space by renouncing their own free agents and swinging a trade to bring in an impact wing. If he can defend, then perhaps Davis and Ryan Anderson could work as a full-time frontcourt, which would allow Gentry to play a style somewhat similar to what has worked for him offensively in the past, though Tyreke Evans' jump shot undermines that to an extent. Retaining Asik and targeting a wing with the midlevel exception is the conservative approach. Given the tepid options on the market, a creative trade might be New Orleans' best bet to balance the roster and take the next step.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: get over the top
Possible targets: The Thunder faces a hefty tax bill next season if the same roster comes back, which would require OKC to match any offers restricted free agents Kyle Singler and Enes Kanter attract on the market. (Advised, unless some team loses its head over Kanter.) This is no time to pinch pennies in Oklahoma City, as Kevin Durant enters the last year of his contract with plenty to prove after his injury-plagued 2014-15 season. A healthy Thunder roster is a title contender as is, complete with star power and complementary role players at every position. A veteran backup playmaker might help if he's willing to sign for the minimum. Jameer Nelson comes to mind. But then someone else would have to go, and not only does OKC have a stocked roster, but they've got stash prospect Josh Huestis waiting in the wings and the last lottery pick in the draft. Sam Presti might want to package some of these young assets in an effort to bring in a veteran role player, but it's hard to see the Thunder doing much in free agency.
Phoenix Suns
Likely cap position: under
Top objective: decide what they want to be
Possible targets: The Suns went guard-heavy with last season's roster construction, then cleared that up a bit when they traded away Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic at the deadline. But they still have a big decision to make this summer on restricted free agentBrandon Knight, who is a terrific player, but is he the long-term backcourt partner for Eric Bledsoe? The Suns also have to decide how much they are willing to spend to keep backup center Brandan Wright. Beyond that, the Suns appear to have a core in place of Bledsoe, emergent center Alex Len and power forward Markieff Morris.
Even if Knight is retained, the Suns need to upgrade on the wing. In-house candidates Archie Goodwin and Reggie Bullock could be ready to step forward to replace outgoing free agents Gerald Green and Marcus Thornton. That still leaves room for a more offense-minded 3 to go with P.J. Tucker and Marcus Morris. The Suns should have money to spend. This is a team that might want to throw a big offer at Kawhi Leonard and see what sticks. A more realistic target is DeMarre Carroll.
Portland Trail Blazers
Likely cap position: over
Top objective: keep their starters
Possible targets: The Blazers have starters LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez headed for unrestricted free agency, and keeping that trio -- in the order listed -- is top priority. Obviously there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding Aldridge, but if you want to be an optimist, losing him could represent an opportunity for a team that might be stuck on the second tier of the tough West. Damian Lillard is the foundation player, while Nicolas Batum and a hopefully healthy Matthews are both capable of carrying a heavier offensive load in a post-Aldridge situation.
Meyers Leonard has emerged as a legit stretch big who offers more efficiency, if not dynamism, than Aldridge. If Arron Afflalo opts out and walks, the Blazers could have cash to spend on the frontcourt, where there is some depth in the market. Paul Millsap would make sense with this bunch at the right price.
Sacramento Kings
Likely cap position: under
Top objective: figure out who signs the free agents
Possible targets: Seriously, what in the world is going on in Sacramento? Can we just turn the operation over to George Karl? The Kings can easily walk away from their own free agents and have money to spend this summer. They have a foundation of DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay, two developing guards in Nik Stauskas and Ben McLemore, and the No. 6 pick in the draft. This is a roster short on passing, and it just so happens that Rajon Rondo is going to be a free agent with everything to prove. The Kings might be the one team for whom Rondo, if he's healthy, makes sense, but you don't want to overextend in either dollars or years.
San Antonio Spurs
Likely cap position: under
Top objective: transition to the future
Possible targets: Assuming Tim Duncan doesn't retire and returns to the Spurs on another below-market contract, then matching the max offer coming Kawhi Leonard's way is the top priority. However, if Manu Ginobili retires, it becomes that much more important to keep Danny Green, an unrestricted free agent sure to attract plenty of interest.
But the Spurs have the flexibility to chase a star free agent and they have the talent and organizational stability to interest any of the top big men. It's not hard to imagine Marc Gasol or LaMarcus Aldridge, a central Texas native, becoming the face of the post-Duncan Spurs.
Utah Jazz
Likely cap position: under
Top objective: add shooting
Possible targets: The Jazz are poised to become something special, and they are about to add yet another lottery pick to their extensive collection of such players already on hand. They have the financial structure in place to keep all of these guys when they are ready to be extended, as Utah has already done with Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Alec Burks. As this young group continues to develop together, another deep-shooting threat would help Utah mount a playoff push next season.
You don't want to overspend, though. There are free agents who make sense in a salary vacuum: Wesley Matthews, Khris Middleton, Louis Williams, etc. If Matthews' injury hurts his market value, then that might be a nice upside play. Otherwise, expect the Jazz to stay the course.
Making the case for being the No. 1 pick: Jahlil Okafor
SANTA BARBARA, Calif. -- And the first ... shall be last.
For Jahlil Okafor's entire career, first is the only number that has ever mattered.
The No. 1 ranked player in his class four straight years in high school.
State champion in Illinois his senior season.
Gold medalist with Team USA in the 2012 FIBA Under-17 World Championships and again in 2013 in the FIBA Under-19 World Championships.
High school national player of the year by Parade, USA Today and McDonald's his senior season.
MVP at the McDonald's All-American and Jordan Brand Classic games.
ACC Player of the Year.
First-team All-American as a freshman.
National champion with the Duke Blue Devils in April.
But with 12 days remaining before the NBA draft, for the first time in his career, there is a dark cloud hanging over first. Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell have passed him on our Big Board. Okafor, the national champion. Okafor, the All-American. Okafor, the first in his class his entire career, is in an unusual position. For once, he has to convince the basketball experts that he's No. 1.
His case will be a simple one.
"I'm a winner," Okafor said when asked what he would say to the teams at the top of the draft about why he should be the No. 1 pick. "I've always been a winner. And I'm a great teammate."
Interview over.
Sticking to the script
It's almost impossible to believe Okafor is in this position at all.
For virtually the entire year, he was not only No. 1 on our Big Board, but also the consensus No. 1 among NBA scouts and GMs. Every team that I polled from July through February had him on top.
After dominating high school basketball for four years, he was dominating college ball. Ruling the ACC. Leading Duke to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. A favorite to win National Player of the Year as a freshman.
His low-post skills were unique. Every scout I spoke with couldn't remember the last time a freshman big man played with such skill and confidence in the post. Most big men are lucky to have one good move. Okafor has 10, and 10 more counters when the defense reacts.
He has soft hands, quick feet and a calm demeanor on the court. Whenever he's out there, he acts like he's been doing this his whole life. In many ways, he has.
Okafor's parents both played college ball. They've been grooming him for first since he was a baby.
"I have videos of me playing basketball in diapers," Okafor said. "I've always been a basketball player. My earliest memories are of playing basketball. I was born playing it. It's why I'm so comfortable on the floor."
In the eighth grade his comfort level hit a new high when he met a local big man trainer named Rick Lewis. Lewis saw Okafor's talent immediately and wanted to give him a strong foundation to build upon. Okafor was already using his size and strength to dominate the paint. But Lewis knew that being the biggest and strongest would only last so long before others caught up. If he was going to stay No. 1, he needed skills to go with his obvious strength.
"The first time I saw him play," Lewis recalled, "I asked him after the game, 'How many assists did you have? Not that many. That's going to change. You're the biggest thing on the floor and you're going to get double- and tripled-teams and you'll start forcing up shots. You have to learn to pass.'
"He went to his first tournament and called me after and said, 'Did you see my left-hand dunk?' because he couldn't dunk with his left when I first got him. 'But how many assists did you have? One, two? That's not enough.'"
Okafor remembered the conversation, too. "It's funny you mention the not-many-assists story," he said. "Now people see me as a big man who knows how to pass out of the post. And it started with that conversation. He's helped me so much on and off the floor."
Passing was just one of the areas Lewis focused on. He began creating a plan for Okafor that included daily workouts that worked on footwork and post moves. In an era in which big men are happier playing like wings, Lewis wanted to create an old-school, Patrick Ewing-esque low-post monster.
"I've trained a lot of guys over the years and he's been the first guy I have had that I can say has bought into the entire script and the entire program," Lewis said. "Every move he does is off a script. He doesn't do anything that is brand new. He doesn't make up anything on the floor. Everything he does on the floor we have a drill for. It helps him to know what he's doing. And it keeps him from getting injured on non-contact moves."
That script Lewis is referring to is what NBA scouts have been drooling over for months: Okafor's unique ability to read defenses, react and dominate the paint. It's been a decade -- maybe longer -- since a big man could do what he's done at his age.
"I stick to the script," Okafor said. "Different moves and counters. It's instilled in me. I've never gone off that script."
Even when he got to Duke and suddenly the competition was bigger, stronger and more advanced.
"The script stayed the same," Okafor deadpanned. "I got bigger, I got stronger. We've been doing the same thing since the eighth grade."
The "same thing" has provided huge results for Okafor. As a freshman at Duke, Okafor averaged 17.3 points and shot an incredible 66 percent from the field. That number went up to a ridiculous 76.5 percent at the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com. He was so efficient as a freshman that Kevin Pelton's formula for projecting WARP freaked out, essentially calling his numbers a fluke and pushing him to sixth and later to 14th among draft prospects.
Wrote Pelton: "He's not currently at the top of my rankings of projected WARP (he's sixth, in fact), but there's actually a good explanation for that. The system doesn't believe anyone can be as good at finishing as Okafor has been. As of now, Okafor's 2-point percentage would be the second-best by a major-conference player to average at least 15 points per game in College Basketball Reference's database (back to 1997-98), trailing only Villanova's Michael Bradley in 2000-01 (.727). And Bradley did that as a fourth-year transfer. If we narrow the list to freshmen, Okafor is No. 1 by a huge margin over Arizona State's Ike Diogu (.625 in 2002-03)."
In other words, Pelton's system felt that Okafor's shooting percentage was just too good to be true. At the time, Pelton still believed Okafor would be the No. 1 pick.
It wasn't until February that things started to get fuzzier.
The slip
After spending the first nine months of the season ranked No. 1 on our Big Board, Okafor slid to No. 2 in late March and to No. 3 last week.
What happened? Two things, really.
First, as polished as Okafor was offensively, his defense started to become a major issue as scouts continued to watch him. He struggled to protect the rim, couldn't guard players on the perimeter and often played lethargically on the defensive end.
Various theories abound. He lacked conditioning; lacked athleticism; was staying out of foul trouble; Mike Krzyzewski's system didn't do him any favors, etc. Whatever the explanation, as good as Okafor was offensively, his defense was equally bad.
His poor free throw shooting was another issue. Okafor was getting to the line on average about five times a game and was shooting a miserable 51 percent. In the NBA, coaches were strategically hacking poor free throw shooters like DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard every time they touched the ball. It's more of an issue now than ever before.
The second factor was the rise of Towns. After a slowish start at Kentucky, Towns really started coming on in March. While the two players were roughly the same size, Towns was more athletic and a much better shot-blocker, and he showed an ability to face the basket -- a skill Okafor lacked.
In the old NBA (the one that emphasized isolations in the post), Okafor would have been hands down the No. 1 pick. In the new NBA (one that emphasizes rim protection, switching on defense and big men who can space the floor), Towns fit the mold as the new "it" big.
Scouts and GMs alike drooled at the possibility of the two of them going head-to-head in the national championship game. But a Kentucky loss to Wisconsin in the Final Four ended that dream. It was around that time when, for the first time all year, the majority of teams now had Towns ahead of Okafor.
As the draft process continued, more and more teams also put Russell ahead of him. LeBron James, Steph Curry, James Harden and a host of other guards or wings were now dominating the playoffs. There wasn't a dominant big man in the mix. Starting centers likeAndrew Bogut and Timofey Mozgov were spending huge chunks of time on the bench in the Finals.
"The NBA is trendy," one GM said. "Okafor's game doesn't fit the trend. It's old-school. And I think that once someone said it out loud, people began jumping off the bandwagon. But I think it's a huge mistake. The reason the league has changed is because we can't find dominant big men any more. The highest percentage shot available is at the rim. I think Okafor will cause major problems for teams that have gone away from bigs. He'll dominate the paint. And the defense? I don't worry about it. He's 19. He'll get in better condition. He'll learn to play it well enough to not be a liability. And then people will be asking in a few years whether we just passed on the next Shaq, the next Tim Duncan, for the next Chris Webber. I'm not sure trendy is ever really a good thing."
Coming to win
Okafor has taken the criticism to heart and has been working since May to address the biggest critique made against him: that he lacks the athleticism to dominate the NBA. He has been working for two months with the folks at P3 (the Peak Performance Project) to change his body and his game. His body is leaner than it's ever been. His stomach is toned. And his athleticism has improved significantly.
I profiled P3 a few years ago. It provides complete biomechanical and neuromuscular assessments to athletes and then helps them improve on weaknesses. This is a place on the cutting edge of where sports training is going in the next decade. Now that the NBA has contracted them to do pre-draft testing, P3 has hundreds of NBA players in its database to compare to Okafor.
"On Day 1, we were able to see exactly how he stacked up to our NBA center database from a vertical, lateral, agility, and biomechanical perspective," P3 assistant GM Adam Hewitt said. "While there were some clear targets -- we knew that Jah could get a lot better and that he wasn't close to reaching his athletic potential."
Two months after starting with P3, Okafor has made major strides.
"He was able to really improve his lateral acceleration and agility while at P3," Hewitt said. "The one-off skater test (a lateral acceleration test) is a test we have been doing with NBA athletes for a long time now and what we have found through in-house research is that there is a strong correlation between being able to put up a lot of horizontal force and having a fast lateral agility time."
In his first assessment, Okafor's left slide agility was measured at 2.88 seconds. His right at 2.81 seconds. Two months later, he posted better times on his left (2.66 seconds) and right (2.58), ranking him in the 87th percentile compared to other NBA centers in P3's database.
Okafor also improved his standing vertical jump by 2.5 inches and his maximum vertical by 4 inches. And Hewitt thinks he'll continue to get better. These sorts of issues aren't fixed in a couple of months.
On the court, though, Okafor has been sticking to the script.
While scouts want to see improvements in his perimeter game, Okafor, in the light workout I saw on June 20, spent all of his time refining his moves in the paint.
"My main focus, my pride is right there on the block," Okafor said after the workout. "That's where I've always played and my focus has always been. That's my bread and butter, and I don't want to go away from that."
Even when the league now wants big men to step out and shoot?
"He's not afraid to be a true big man," Lewis said. "He has to be the stretch-the-floor big man. He understands that. He is mentally prepared to do that. With the scouting report the way it is, people are going to leave him. They are going to back up off of him. In order for him to get open again, he has to make that 15-to-17-foot jump shot."
But maybe Okafor won't have to adjust. The way the lottery balls fell on draft night may have played into Okafor's hands. The analytics revolution that has captured the NBA hasn't quite landed in Minnesota and Los Angeles. While both teams use the numbers, Flip Saunders and Mitch Kupchak are both old-school executives.
Both teams are seriously considering Okafor with the No. 1. pick. Saunders has been a huge Okafor fan all year. He'd love to have a dominant low-post scorer to pair with Andrew Wiggins. He's getting push-back from his staff, which prefers Towns, and that has raised some question about what the Wolves will do at No. 1.
If Towns goes No. 1, the Lakers have been debating between Okafor and Russell. While Russell is a sexier pick and fits the mold of a Steph Curry or James Harden, the Lakers have traditionally been built on the back of elite centers. With a gaping hole in the middle, will they really pass on Okafor for a wing such as Russell?
If the Lakers take Russell, things get a little messier for Okafor.
The Sixers, at No. 3, don't seem to have Okafor heavily in the mix at all. The Knicks do like Okafor and would likely take him at No. 4. But with Phil Jackson pressing to improve defensively, and with the Knicks entertaining trades as well, it's not a slam dunk.
For the first time in his life, Okafor may have to wait to hear his name called.
And for once, being first doesn't seem to matter so much to him. Because being first in the draft has nothing to do with winning. Nothing to do with basketball. Okafor's focus remains on those two things.
"This is my sanctuary," Okafor said, pointing to the court. "It's where I go to clear my mind from things. Now I potentially will get paid to do it. This is what I love to do. I just want to win. Doesn't matter where I go. Just know wherever I go, I'm coming to win."
According to the Scriptures, the last shall be first, and the first last. For Okafor, wherever he goes on draft night, whether he goes No. 1 or No. 4, the end goal will be the same.
He's coming for first -- the sort of first that's decided in the Finals, not on draft night.
Okafor has taken the criticism to heart and has been working since May to address the biggest critique made against him: that he lacks the athleticism to dominate the NBA. He has been working for two months with the folks at P3 (the Peak Performance Project) to change his body and his game. His body is leaner than it's ever been. His stomach is toned. And his athleticism has improved significantly.
I profiled P3 a few years ago. It provides complete biomechanical and neuromuscular assessments to athletes and then helps them improve on weaknesses. This is a place on the cutting edge of where sports training is going in the next decade. Now that the NBA has contracted them to do pre-draft testing, P3 has hundreds of NBA players in its database to compare to Okafor.
"On Day 1, we were able to see exactly how he stacked up to our NBA center database from a vertical, lateral, agility, and biomechanical perspective," P3 assistant GM Adam Hewitt said. "While there were some clear targets -- we knew that Jah could get a lot better and that he wasn't close to reaching his athletic potential."
Two months after starting with P3, Okafor has made major strides.
"He was able to really improve his lateral acceleration and agility while at P3," Hewitt said. "The one-off skater test (a lateral acceleration test) is a test we have been doing with NBA athletes for a long time now and what we have found through in-house research is that there is a strong correlation between being able to put up a lot of horizontal force and having a fast lateral agility time."
In his first assessment, Okafor's left slide agility was measured at 2.88 seconds. His right at 2.81 seconds. Two months later, he posted better times on his left (2.66 seconds) and right (2.58), ranking him in the 87th percentile compared to other NBA centers in P3's database.
Okafor also improved his standing vertical jump by 2.5 inches and his maximum vertical by 4 inches. And Hewitt thinks he'll continue to get better. These sorts of issues aren't fixed in a couple of months.
On the court, though, Okafor has been sticking to the script.
While scouts want to see improvements in his perimeter game, Okafor, in the light workout I saw on June 20, spent all of his time refining his moves in the paint.
"My main focus, my pride is right there on the block," Okafor said after the workout. "That's where I've always played and my focus has always been. That's my bread and butter, and I don't want to go away from that."
Even when the league now wants big men to step out and shoot?
"He's not afraid to be a true big man," Lewis said. "He has to be the stretch-the-floor big man. He understands that. He is mentally prepared to do that. With the scouting report the way it is, people are going to leave him. They are going to back up off of him. In order for him to get open again, he has to make that 15-to-17-foot jump shot."
But maybe Okafor won't have to adjust. The way the lottery balls fell on draft night may have played into Okafor's hands. The analytics revolution that has captured the NBA hasn't quite landed in Minnesota and Los Angeles. While both teams use the numbers, Flip Saunders and Mitch Kupchak are both old-school executives.
Both teams are seriously considering Okafor with the No. 1. pick. Saunders has been a huge Okafor fan all year. He'd love to have a dominant low-post scorer to pair with Andrew Wiggins. He's getting push-back from his staff, which prefers Towns, and that has raised some question about what the Wolves will do at No. 1.
If Towns goes No. 1, the Lakers have been debating between Okafor and Russell. While Russell is a sexier pick and fits the mold of a Steph Curry or James Harden, the Lakers have traditionally been built on the back of elite centers. With a gaping hole in the middle, will they really pass on Okafor for a wing such as Russell?
If the Lakers take Russell, things get a little messier for Okafor.
The Sixers, at No. 3, don't seem to have Okafor heavily in the mix at all. The Knicks do like Okafor and would likely take him at No. 4. But with Phil Jackson pressing to improve defensively, and with the Knicks entertaining trades as well, it's not a slam dunk.
For the first time in his life, Okafor may have to wait to hear his name called.
And for once, being first doesn't seem to matter so much to him. Because being first in the draft has nothing to do with winning. Nothing to do with basketball. Okafor's focus remains on those two things.
"This is my sanctuary," Okafor said, pointing to the court. "It's where I go to clear my mind from things. Now I potentially will get paid to do it. This is what I love to do. I just want to win. Doesn't matter where I go. Just know wherever I go, I'm coming to win."
According to the Scriptures, the last shall be first, and the first last. For Okafor, wherever he goes on draft night, whether he goes No. 1 or No. 4, the end goal will be the same.
He's coming for first -- the sort of first that's decided in the Finals, not on draft night.
KillaCali32
Banned