The Official 2024-25 MLB Hot Stove Thread
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Hilarious but Soto is right. Clearly, Cohen is going to spend whatever it takes to keep the Mets in the mix as long as he owns the team.
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Coli Prophet
I got a feeling (outside of Sasaki) .. he’s gotta be focused on a trade or two. I just don’t see any difference makers in the FA market.
I really don't understand why they don't sign Burnes. They have money to burn and he throws nearly 200 innings every year; never gets injured.
I think the strikeout rates are wildly overblown. Go look at Verlander in his early 30s. His strikeout rates dipped...then they went up again, because the stuff was still there. I feel the same about Burnes.
Another thing to look at is Burnes' splits last year. Camden's always been known as a hitter's park. Burnes' opponent OPS was .671 in Baltimore; .565 on the road: Corbin Burnes 2024 Pitching Splits | Baseball-Reference.com
What we learned at MLB's winter meetings
Major League Baseball's winter meetings wrapped up Thursday, leaving us with plenty to digest. Here are our biggest takeaways.Astros throw major star into trade market Bob Levey / Getty Images Sport / GettyHouston Astros general manager Dana Brown delivered one of the biggest surprises of the...
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Major League Baseball's winter meetings wrapped up Thursday, leaving us with plenty to digest. Here are our biggest takeaways.
Astros throw major star into trade market
Houston Astros general manager Dana Brown delivered one of the biggest surprises of the meetings when he said he's willing to listen on anyone in trade talks - including star outfielder Kyle Tucker and two-time All-Star starter Framber Valdez, who are both under team control for one more season.
All indications are that Tucker will be moved, and as shocking as that is, it makes sense from Houston's perspective. The Astros are finally showing significant cracks after ruling the AL for almost a decade. Alex Bregman is a free agent and reportedly asking for more than what owner Jim Crane is likely willing to spend, while the farm system ranks among the worst - if not the worst - in baseball. Houston still has enough pieces to remain competitive, but it's going to need to get creative in order to extend this window. That's where trading Tucker comes in. Juan Soto's monster contract likely sent a direct message to Crane, who is reluctant to hand out deals longer than six years, that a path to extend Tucker no longer exists. Houston needs to maximize the asset.
It's reported that the Astros are seeking MLB-ready players in return for Tucker, which makes sense considering the team still has a talented core under contract. There's a real opportunity here for Brown to acquire the type of package the San Diego Padres received from the New York Yankees in the Soto deal last winter - a return that arguably made San Diego better than it would be had it held on to Soto. We saw the Milwaukee Brewers take the same approach with Corbin Burnes, turning him into two valuable MLB-ready pieces that are now under team control long term.
As difficult as it would be to move on from a player as talented as Tucker, the Astros have made a habit of watching stars leave without missing a step. And moving Tucker might be the only way for Houston to extend this window a little longer.
Red Sox-White Sox blockbuster is big win for both sides
Boston Red Sox chief baseball office Craig Breslow has been extremely vocal about how important this offseason is for the organization, saying the front office needs to get uncomfortable in order to improve the club. After watching one of his top targets in Max Fried sign with the Yankees, Breslow quickly pivoted to the trade market and sent out an enormous amount of prospect capital to the Chicago White Sox for Garrett Crochet.
While the cost was high, this is exactly the type of move the Red Sox have been building toward. Not every prospect can reach the majors, and Breslow was able to move a number of pieces that were likely blocked at the major-league level. Boston landed a legitimate ace that's projected to earn just $2.9 million in arbitration this winter, and Breslow was also able to hold on to the organization's top three prospects. Crochet's contract also opens the door for the Red Sox, who can use that additional payroll flexibility to continue to add in free agency or take on more money in trades as they pursue another starter, backend relief help, and an impact bat. This trade is another example of how important scouting and player development is, even for the high-payroll, big-market teams. Nailing selections - especially your first-round picks - is crucial to achieving success.
While they're celebrating in Boston, you have to believe they're doing the same on the South Side of Chicago. The haul the White Sox received is the type of package that can really accelerate a rebuild. Kyle Teel and Braden Montgomery project to be everyday major leaguers, Chase Meidroth showed exceptional plate discipline in the minors, and Wikelman Gonzalez possesses incredible strikeout numbers if the club can reign in his control. Chicago received a lot of high-ceiling players who also have a high floor. This was both quantity and quality.
The price for starting pitching is insane
It's not hard to see why the Red Sox were willing to part with so many prospects for Crochet when seeing the price for free-agent starting pitching. Fried, who is an elite arm but has never thrown more than 181 innings, inked an eight-year, $218-million deal with the Yankees while entering his age-31 season - a record for a left-handed starter. That will likely drive up Corbin Burnes' eventual deal to around $250 million (at least that's Scott Boras' hope).
It will be interesting to see how big of a contract Burnes ultimately lands. While the Fried signing likely raised the bar, it also took away a Burnes suitor. The Red Sox should still be in the mix for Burnes, but they're less desperate to add a starter after acquiring Crochet. The Giants and Blue Jays are rumored to be in talks for Burnes, but are they really that inclined to go all-in for the right-hander? The negotiations will be fascinating.
Even if Burnes doesn't land a record contract, he'll still be well-compensated. It's never been a better time to be a free-agent pitcher - Blake Snell (five-year, $182-million deal), Nathan Eovaldi (three-year, $75-million deal), Luis Severino (three-year, $67-million deal), Yusei Kikuchi (three-year, $63-million deal), Frankie Montas (two-year, $34-million deal), Matt Boyd (two-year, $29-million deal), Alex Cobb (one-year, $15-million), and Shane Bieber (one-year, $14-million) all signed in the last three weeks.
With the prices so high, it's not a surprise to see other teams dangling some really attractive arms. The Pittsburgh Pirates are reportedly interested in moving Mitch Keller or Jared Jones, while the Seattle Mariners are rumored to be willing to part with some of their starters for offensive help.
Romano benefits from being non-tendered
It's not often that a player actually lands more money after being non-tendered, but that was the case when the Toronto Blue Jays decided they would no longer continue their partnership with closer Jordan Romano.
The two-time All-Star was projected to earn $7.75 million in his final year of arbitration, but the Blue Jays opted to cut ties in order to use those financial resources elsewhere. Romano then inked a one-year, $8.5-million deal with the reigning NL East champions, the Philadelphia Phillies.
Blue Jays general manger Ross Atkins said he believes Romano is healthy - he missed most of last season with an elbow injury - and the decision was for financial reasons. That's what makes the entire situation a bit confusing. The Blue Jays are desperate for bullpen help, and to release Romano for nothing is a head-scratcher. Why didn't the Blue Jays tender Romano a contract and at least shop him when there were clearly interested teams?
Would you prefer Bregman or Arenado?
Teams in need of third-base help have two very different paths they can travel. Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado - two of baseball's premier defenders - are available this winter, and both are said to be flexible when it comes to moving positions, even though both are most valuable at third base.
Bregman is entering his age-31 season and coming off a year in which he hit 26 home runs to go with a .768 OPS. It was the third straight season in which his OPS declined. The Astros reportedly offered him a six-year, $156-million contract, though it's believed he's seeking a deal closer to $200 million. The Red Sox, Yankees, and Detroit Tigers are reportedly interested in Bregman, who will also cost a draft pick and international bonus pool money to sign after he rejected a qualifying offer.
Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak made it clear at the winter meetings that he will try and deal Arenado, and the 33-year-old is reportedly willing to waive his no-trade clause to go to the Los Angels Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, New York Mets, or Red Sox.
Arenado is coming off the worst season of his career since his 2013 rookie year. He hit 16 home runs and posted a .719 OPS over 152 games. It was his second straight season with an OPS below .800, but he remains an elite defender and doesn't strike out. Teams will bank on a potential change of scenery giving him a boost. He's owed $64 million over the final three years of his deal, making him a less risky addition than Bregman, even if he comes with a lower ceiling. There's a chance the Cardinals would be willing to eat some of the remaining money or even take a contract in return.
Plenty of work left to be done
This year's winter meetings were busy but not completely crazy, and executives departed Dallas with plenty of work to be done before spring training opens in February. Expect the weeks leading into Christmas to be pretty busy, as a number of players will try to get deals done before the new year.
For teams still looking to fill holes, there are lots of players remaining on the free-agent market. In addition to the players discussed above, Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar, Joc Pederson, Sean Manaea, Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta, Walker Buehler, Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates, Carlos Estévez, and many others remain unsigned.
It's a pretty easy call to take Bregman over Arenado unless you're a cheap team (Tigers 
). There's certainly questions about Bregman's power in a park that isn't Minute Maid or Fenway but his overall numbers were pretty much the same as always. The reason his OPS dropped under .800 is because his walk rate fell seemingly out of nowhere. Assuming that steadies this upcoming season, there's no reason not to expect 20-25 HRs, .800+ OPS and Gold Glove caliber defense at third. Bregman always has a low strikeout rate too.
). There's certainly questions about Bregman's power in a park that isn't Minute Maid or Fenway but his overall numbers were pretty much the same as always. The reason his OPS dropped under .800 is because his walk rate fell seemingly out of nowhere. Assuming that steadies this upcoming season, there's no reason not to expect 20-25 HRs, .800+ OPS and Gold Glove caliber defense at third. Bregman always has a low strikeout rate too.
I (and I'm guessing much of Birdland) kind of feel like that FSU season thread from a couple years ago: Somebody...anybody....do something.
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Coli Prophet
I think Burnes wanting 7/8 years is what's gonna be the deal breaker for Stearns. I only see him going that long for an elite/young arm, and for as good as Burned has been.. I don't think he can be considered 'elite'
I get it but they just gave another guy a 15 year contract. Who cares at this point? The window is now.
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Coli Prophet
I think its safe to say the window is the next 10+ years for the Mets.. if not longer. Dont get me wrong.. I want a legit ace for this staff.. I just dont think Stearns sees Burnes as that type of guy. I bet if Burnes would settle for a high AAV on a 3-4 year deal, Stearns might bite. But it looks like he's insisting on 7/8.
Who are they waiting for then? They didn't trade for Crochet; they don't want to pay Burnes, even though pitcher contracts seem to age the best out of everybody. The way guys are getting developed, aces aren't gonna be a real thing anymore.
Skubal's two years from free agency and will be 30, same as Burnes now. Dylan Cease next year? Burnes has been better and more consistent than him.
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Coli Prophet
Like i mentioned.. I think Burnes/Boras are stuck on 7/8 years. That's not gonna fly (in my opinion)
Other options (whether this offseason or in the not too distant future)
Skubal
Cease
Sasaki
Bryce Miller
Logan Gilbert
Framber Valdez
Bailey Ober
Alcantara
I've read the arguments on Corbin Burnes and I'm inclined to say he's not worth a big investment.
His K/9 has declined for 4 straight seasons.
And now he's 30 years old.
He's a guy you'd love to have. I'm just not sure he's worth a 200M+ contract.
As best I can tell, there are only 6 pitchers getting 30M per year (in 2024 anyway):
Justin Verlander
Max Scherzer
Jacob deGrom
Gerrit Cole
Stephen Strasburg
Blake Snell
Corbin Burnes probably deserves to be paid somewhere in the 20-25M range, which puts him between guys like Joe Musgrove (20M) and Sonny Gray (25M). Maybe a bit more than that.
I understand that a lot of those guys signed their deals years ago when the market was different. I mean Zack Wheeler only made 23.6M last season, though I know he signed an extension to make 42M going forward.
The thing is, what kind of pitcher do you think Corbin Burnes really is?
I think Burnes is a lot closer to Chris Bassitt than he is to Zack Wheeler, I'll put it that way. And how much money would you give Chris Bassitt?
His K/9 has declined for 4 straight seasons.
And now he's 30 years old.
He's a guy you'd love to have. I'm just not sure he's worth a 200M+ contract.
As best I can tell, there are only 6 pitchers getting 30M per year (in 2024 anyway):
Justin Verlander
Max Scherzer
Jacob deGrom
Gerrit Cole
Stephen Strasburg
Blake Snell
Corbin Burnes probably deserves to be paid somewhere in the 20-25M range, which puts him between guys like Joe Musgrove (20M) and Sonny Gray (25M). Maybe a bit more than that.
I understand that a lot of those guys signed their deals years ago when the market was different. I mean Zack Wheeler only made 23.6M last season, though I know he signed an extension to make 42M going forward.
The thing is, what kind of pitcher do you think Corbin Burnes really is?
I think Burnes is a lot closer to Chris Bassitt than he is to Zack Wheeler, I'll put it that way. And how much money would you give Chris Bassitt?
