The France Thread: Oui Oui, Bonbons and all that bad stuff 🇫🇷

[MischievousMonkey]

She's doing much better than last time but he's running circles around her

Both are clowns when it comes to the ecology but she manages to be even worse

 

[Baka's Weird Case]

how did they do in the debate frehs?

 

[MischievousMonkey]

how did they do in the debate frehs?

I watched it entirely except for 10 min in the middle.

Imo she got smoked on basically all topics. She did slightly better than last time but he's just more talented, technical and faster than her.
I think it's also due to the fact that her ideological position is inherently inferior in terms of logic than his, so she couldn't press him even on topics where he was more shaky.

For example, when it comes to ecology, there was a whole avenue of attacks she could have leveraged on his track record and present position but she somehow managed to be even worse, because she doesn't stand on shyt in that regard neither.

Besides the exercise of the debate, there were also other stakes they both had to consider, notably for her: getting the far-left electorate that hates Macron to vote for her or at least not vote at all.

She might have even failed in that regard since she emphasized some of the most extreme parts of her rhetoric (banning the veil, supressing jus soli citizenship, the "ensavaging" of France). Some say it's because since the Overton window moved to the right of her, she has to keep on consolidating her base, but does she gain more than she loses from doing that?

Macron also had to gather votes from his left side and I can't say if he did well in that aspect, even if hekinda tried. Folks see him as arrogant and condescending and I wouldn't be surprised if they felt like he was all that tonight. But again, hard to say if there is anything he could have done in 2 hours and a half to change a reputation built over years.

That's just my assessment

 

[Liu Kang]

I watched it entirely except for 10 min in the middle.

Imo she got smoked on basically all topics. She did slightly better than last time but he's just more talented, technical and faster than her.
I think it's also due to the fact that her ideological position is inherently inferior in terms of logic than his, so she couldn't press him even on topics where he was more shaky.

For example, when it comes to ecology, there was a whole avenue of attacks she could have leveraged on his track record and present position but she somehow managed to be even worse, because she doesn't stand on shyt in that regard neither.

Besides the exercise of the debate, there were also other stakes they both had to consider, notably for her: getting the far-left electorate that hates Macron to vote for her or at least not vote at all.

She might have even failed in that regard since she emphasized some of the most extreme parts of her rhetoric (banning the veil, supressing jus soli citizenship, the "ensavaging" of France). Some say it's because since the Overton window moved to the right of her, she has to keep on consolidating her base, but does she gain more than she loses from doing that?

Macron also had to gather votes from his left side and I can't say if he did well in that aspect, even if hekinda tried. Folks see him as arrogant and condescending and I wouldn't be surprised if they felt like he was all that tonight. But again, hard to say if there is anything he could have done in 2 hours and a half to change a reputation built over years.

That's just my assessment

A good assessment
Le Pen was put on the defensive even though it was Macron who had a presidential track record to defend. She couldnt revert the tide ultimately so strategically he won. However the debate never really matters at the end.

 

[88m3]

 

[jj23]

Someone check on that woman

 

[Liu Kang]

Can't edit the title but the gap seems to have widened. This week, several polls had Macron up 55%+. On some he even shot up to 57%.

Still think that the score will stay relatively close. I'm banking on a Macron 54-46

 

[thatrapsfan]

Présidentielle 2022: Marine Le Pen arrive largement en tête dans plusieurs territoires d’outre-mer (direct)

Could be inaccurate but Belgian newspaper says Le Pen won the vote in most of the overseas territories.

Wont be decisive if true, but still interesting seeing that Macron won comfortably in the same places in 2017.

 

[Secure Da Bag]

how did they do in the debate frehs?

Might as well say,

how did they do in the debate freres?

 

[Liu Kang]

Présidentielle 2022: Marine Le Pen arrive largement en tête dans plusieurs territoires d’outre-mer (direct)

Could be inaccurate but Belgian newspaper says Le Pen won the vote in most of the overseas territories.

Wont be decisive if true, but still interesting seeing that Macron won comfortably in the same places in 2017.

The results are not surprising though the gaps are. In the first round, Melenchon won there and in the 4 main overseas territories, Macron was 3rd three times behind Le Pen. Le Pen even placed first in Mayotte.

 

[thatrapsfan]

The results are not surprising though the gaps are. In the first round, Melenchon won there and in the 4 main overseas territories, Macron was 3rd three times behind Le Pen. Le Pen even placed first in Mayotte.

What explains huge swing between now and 2017? Also suggests many Melenchon votes went Le Pen..

 

[Liu Kang]

What explains huge swing between now and 2017? Also suggests many Melenchon votes went Le Pen..

COVID restrictions. It's more an anti-Macron vote than a pro Le Pen one and that's why I don't do vote mathematics. There are reasons beyond ideologies and yes most likely more Melenchon votes went Le Pen than Macron even though they don't have much in common.

Now I'm not surprised that Le Pen does well there though. Guadeloupe and Martinique (in a lesser extent) always had issues with Haitian and Dominican illegals so an anti immigration/xenophobixc ideology rings bells. 1/3 of Guyane's population are foreigners (Surinam, Haiti, Brazil...) and that play a part for them there too.

Mayotte has a important illegal immigration issue with Comorians and a complicated relationship with Comoros Union on the political side so that's the territory I'm the least surprised with.

 

[thatrapsfan]

COVID restrictions. It's more an anti-Macron vote than a pro Le Pen one and that's why I don't do vote mathematics. There are reasons beyond ideologies and yes most likely more Melenchon votes went Le Pen than Macron even though they don't have much in common.

Now I'm not surprised that Le Pen does well there though. Guadeloupe and Martinique (in a lesser extent) always had issues with Haitian and Dominican illegals so an anti immigration/xenophobixc ideology rings bells. 1/3 of Guyane's population are foreigners (Surinam, Haiti, Brazil...) and that play a part for them there too.

Mayotte has a important illegal immigration issue with Comorians and a complicated relationship with Comoros Union on the political side so that's the territory I'm the least surprised with.

Very interesting altogether.

People in Mayotte are culturally identical to Comorians as well right?

 

[Liu Kang]

Very interesting altogether.

People in Mayotte are culturally identical to Comorians as well right?

Yes, those are the same islands basically.

 

[Liu Kang]

Belgians have Macron winning with a score between 55 and 57%