Suns-Mavericks opening night predictions — score, storylines, Ayton, Doncic, Booker
With the very likely return of Devin Booker, we get to focus on Deandre Ayton vs. Luka Doncic to kick off the 2018-19 season
The Phoenix Suns have lost their last three season openers, all blowouts, all at home at Talking Stick Resort Arena, by an average of 27 points.
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Dave: With the tape on his fingers, the question is whether Booker will need 20 shots to get his 20 points. Make no mistake, the lowest scoring team in the preseason (97 PPG) will need every point they can squeeze out of their max player. However, they also need Booker’s playmaking, and with the tape affecting his shot, I expect Booker will pass a lot more than he otherwise would. So I expect something like 18 points on 5-18 shooting, 10 assists and 4 rebounds. Doncic has been consistent in the preseason with 15 points, 5 rebounds and 3.5 assists on 30 minutes a night. Assuming a first-game bounce, let’s pump that up to 18 points, 6 assists and 7 rebounds. That’s 32 to 31, Booker.
Greg: This is the toughest question of all. It really is, is an injured Devin Booker with no experience in a new offense better than Luka Doncic. Wait, this isn’t that tough of a quandary after all. It’s obviously Booker. Without a true point guard everything is going to hinge on him regardless of injury. Tape two fingers together or his arm behind his back and he’s going to be the leader. (If he’s the “savior” of the franchise we have to say that, right?)
Evan: With Booker I’m guessing playing more off of Ayton initially, I will go with Doncic just off sheer volume. Unless Booker snatches rebounds away from Ayton to get things going at a fast pace, Doncic will have more of those. Assists I also see more going to Doncic. Points, however, is where Booker will have the edge. Remember, this is his first game back from surgery.
Jim: I think Booker will end up with a higher cumulative total, but I think Luka will have more assists than rebounds. Booker will be at least +10 on points.
Who has more: Ayton blocks or Josh Jackson assists?
Evan: Definitely Josh Jackson in the assist category. He averaged 5 assists in preseason, and that could be continuing through the regular season. Unless they trade for a point guard, Jackson is their most gifted playmaker. Igor Kokoskov wants his team to put defenses in the blender, and Jackson’s blend of speed and athleticism is a huge component to it.
Dave: I don’t know what to expect from Josh Jackson. I do think Ayton tallies 3-4 blocks in his first game. The question is Jackson. How many minutes will he play? I’d expect Booker and Ariza to play 80% of the competitive minutes in the opener (meaning, non-blowout either direction). And Jackson’s minutes won’t often be with Ayton any more. So, I’d guess Ayton beats out Jackson on this.
Tim: Jackson assists. He’ll also have more turnovers than Ayton has blocks.
Greg: Josh Jackson’s one positive in the preseason was his ability to pass. He’ll have two or three lobs to Ayton alone that should put him in the driver’s seat in this matchup.
Brendon: Jackson’s playmaking is one of the only parts of his game I’m buying right now, and as Booker gets into rhythm, he’ll have a lot of responsibility on offense. Jackson could have as many as 7 or 8 assists.
Jim: Let’s go with Jackson at four assists and Ayton with two blocks. Of course there’s a good chance that Jackson will have more turnovers than either of those numbers.
Paul: Jackson assists. He is going to put up numbers across the stat sheet. He just might not be efficient about it. I expect he will have as many lobs to Ayton as Ayton has blocks, and he will probably get at last one other assist.
Justin: Jackson. While Jackson shot poorly during the preseason, he averaged 5 assists per game - showing the ability to facilitate that played a big part in making him a top prospect going into the 2017 NBA Draft. I expect that to carry over into the regular season. Jackson will finish the game with 5 assists and Ayton will finish with 3 blocks.
Who is each team’s leading scorer NOT named Ayton, Booker, Smith Jr. or Doncic?
Justin: For the Suns, T.J. Warren. He still can’t hit the three with any consistency, and probably never will, but there’s no denying that he has a knack for scoring. With the new guys on the team, he won’t average 19.6 points per game like he did last year, but he’s still going to get his. As for the Mavs, after Smith Jr. and Doncic, the team does not really have a scorer outside of Harrison Barnes. With Barnes out, I see it as a toss up between Wesley Matthews, De’Andre Jordan, and the lesser known of their big German guys, Maximilian Kleber. My gut says Matthews, but I’ll go with Maximilian Kleber (if anything, just so that I could type his name one more time).
Tim: Suns- T.J. Warren. Mavs- Wesley Matthews.
Paul: Suns – I’m going to go with Crawford. He is going to come out gunning.
Dave: I’ll say Trevor Ariza. I expect Ariza will start and play almost all the competitive minutes in this game. He was 3rd in net rating for the Suns this preseason, 3rd in PER, 2nd in scoring all while being way down in usage rate. He’s going to come out hard on opening night.
Brendon: For the Suns, I’ve got Ryan Anderson. He’s going to get a lot of open looks this year, and he rounded into form as the preseason progressed. The Mavericks answer is easy. Harrison Barnes was this team’s leading scorer last year by a large margin. Even if we were including Doncic and Smith, my bet would be Barnes for Game One.
Greg: I’m going with T.J. Warren if he’s still on the roster by opening night. He showed he hasn’t lost his touch even coming off the bench. His shooting percentage in the preseason was spectacular and, early on this season, his style will benefit from an offense trying to find its way through a new offense. By default for Dallas I’m going with DeAndre Jordan. Anticipating a lot of misses in this game from both teams and the Dea(A)dres will benefit from it by doing the dirty work.
Evan: For the Suns, I’ll say Josh Jackson. With Booker and Ayton together in the lineup, attention will be taken away allowing Jackson ample driving lanes. He has to play smart offensively (no fadeaway mid-range jumpers), but he should flow better once their two main cogs are back at full strength. As far as Dallas, I’ll take a random stretch big like
Dwight Powell. Phoenix struggled defending the arc in preseason, and the Mavericks could take advantage.
Jim: I’ll go with
Dwight Powell for the Mavericks, although with Barnes out it will be scoring by committee and they are likely to have six guys in double figures at around 10-13 points each. Warren averaged about 20 a game for the Suns last season so he’s the obvious choice.
Any final words on the Suns opener?
Dave: They’ve just GOT to avoid getting blown out. Please please basketball gods, smile on Suns fans.
Brendon: I’m so ready for basketball.
Greg: Honestly, I’m more uncomfortable with the idea of rushing Booker back for the opener than George Constanza getting out of a cold pool. If that hand isn’t 100% the risk of potentially doing more damage or worse, long term damage, is terrifying. Fully trust the Suns medical team but the cynic in me can’t help but let my mind wander to that dark dark place.
Justin: After years of tanking, the Suns have a young core that is oozing with potential. Because of that, I am more excited for the start of this season than I have been for the start of any season in a long time. If that young core develops and reaches their potential, then the future will be bright for the Suns. If they don’t, well.... I think we all know how that story ends. Regardless, this opener is the first small step towards the Suns hopefully becoming relevant again in the NBA.
Evan: Nice play by the NBA’s schedule makers for having Phoenix and Dallas square off with a nationally televised audience. After both Ayton and Doncic shined in preseason, it’s definitely one of the matchups many are looking forward to watching.
Tim: Can we please just not lose by 40 this time?
Jim: If the Suns get blown out I’m going to be pissed.
Paul: I’m just happy real basketball is back. The question now is how long will it be before I just want it to be over.
How about you, Suns fans?
How do you answer each of these questions?