Tufts Now: You detail many reasons why the U.S. is the world’s preeminent power—what are, say, the top two reasons?
Michael Beckley: First, the United States has a huge lead by the most important measures of national power. China is the only country that comes close, and America still has three times China’s wealth and five times its military capabilities. That gap would take decades to close even if things go badly for the United States.
Second, things probably won’t go badly for the United States, at least relatively speaking, because it has the best long-term economic growth prospects among the major powers. Economists have shown that long-run growth depends on a country’s geography, demography, and political institutions. The United States has an edge in all three categories.
Geographically, the United States is a natural economic hub and military fortress. It’s packed with resources and has more economic arteries like navigable waterways and ports than the rest of the world combined. Its only neighbors are Canada and Mexico. China, by contrast, has burned through its resources and is surrounded by nineteen countries, many of which are hostile or unstable, and ten of which still claim parts of China’s territory as their own.
Demographically, America is the only nation that is simultaneously big, young, and highly educated. The U.S. workforce is the third largest, second youngest, most educated in years of schooling, and most productive among the major powers—and it is the only major workforce that will grow throughout this century.
China, by contrast, will lose 200 million workers over the next thirty years and add 300 million senior citizens. Chinese workers produce six times less wealth per hour than American workers on average. More than two-thirds of China’s workers lack a high school education; and one-third of Chinese young people entering the workforce have an IQ below 90, largely a result of malnutrition, poor care, and pollution.
Institutionally, the United States is a mess, but China’s system is worse. The United States is a flawed democracy, but China is an oligarchy ruled by a dictator for life. Special interests drag down U.S. growth and fuel corruption and inequality, but the Chinese Communist Party systematically sacrifices economic efficiency and promotes corruption and inequality to maintain political control.
What about Russia? It has a huge nuclear arsenal, bullies its neighbors and asserts its power farther abroad in conflicts like that in Syria. Should we be more concerned?
Russia threatens many U.S. interests—it menaces U.S. allies, props up U.S. adversaries such as Iran and Syria, murders pro-democracy advocates, meddles in elections, and has recently seized foreign territory near its borders—but Russia is not poised to become a rival superpower like the Soviet Union was.
Russia’s military budget is ten times smaller than America’s. Its economy is smaller than that of Texas and its population will shrink 30 percent over the next thirty years. Russia has no meaningful allies, and it faces NATO, the most powerful alliance in history, on its borders. The United States needs to worry about Russia’s nefarious activities—especially its election meddling and paramilitary encroachments in the Baltics—but it can do so without gearing up for another Cold War.